German politics xth attempt

[A Horse Named Stranger]

It has to be Jamaica.

The SPD has ruled itself out for a future goverment. Which is absolutely believable, as they are really not keen to find out where rockbottom actually is for them votewise in four years. Not that it'll help them much to recover their lost votes.

That leaves Jamaica as only possible coalition (as nobody wants to go to bed with the AfD). Minority goverment is way too fragile to last for four years. And besides, who would want to lead that? Merkel could probably keep that afloat for a while, but do you really think the badly shot down crazies from Bavaria would be able to keep their mouths shut and not add to her worries? Same question actually for the Jamaica experiment. I don't really want to know, who the conservatives have in store to lead if Merkel decides she'S too old for that shit. Uschi von der Föhnfrisur? Thomas Dämlichsehr? Baron Doctor No More? Crazy Horst himself? *shudder*

[The guy from the Vale]

The SPD going into the opposition also denies the AfD the title of opposition leader, which may also factor into the SPD calculus.

And yes, once Merkel is gone, the party landscape will get France-level unpredictable. We'll have to wait and see, I guess.

[The Marquis de Leech]

Where do people think the AFD boost is coming from? If the CDU decline is mostly going to the FDP, that presumably means the AFD is getting former SPD voters (interesting they'd be going there, rather than Die Linke, given AFD's economics).

By complete coincidence, we also had an election here this weekend, under an electoral system we borrowed in its entirety from Germany.

[The guy from the Vale]

The CDU decline isn't only going to the FDP.

Participation rates went up, and apparently the AfD got about one million votes each from three directions:

• Former nonvoters
• CDU voters
• SPD and Linke (~500k each)

Mainly, what we're seeing is the SPD and CDU/CSU losing across the board, the Left gaining ground in the West (mainly former SPD voters) but losing those votes to the AfD in the East, Greens holding steady and the FDP vacuuming up the collapse of the Pirates and CDU, with disgruntled (anti-immigration or anti-LGBT) conservatives, particularly in the East and South, switching from the Union to the AfD.

 

ETA: http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-09/wahlverhalten-bundestagswahl-wahlbeteiligung-waehlerwanderung shows the way people switched their votes.

[Loge]

Interesting result. The rise of the AfD was expected, but the decline of the Christian Democrats was not, especially not in Bavaria. The SPD's result was within what the opinion polls showed, though at the lower end.  The Greens did rather better than expected. AfD won three constituencies in Saxony, CSU won all constituencies in Bavaria, which is why the Bundestag will have more than 700 members. Coalition talks ought to be fun. Looks like Jamaica is the only option but finding a common platform for CDU, CSU, FDP and Greens won't be easy. The CSU facing elections in Bavaria next year won't help, especially with their rather poor results in the federal elections. 

Meanwhile, Frauke Petry, who won one of those three constituencies, has announced that she doesn't want to be a member of the AfD group in the Bundestag.  Funny behaviour for a co-chairperson of the party.

[Mindwalker]

Well, let's be positive about it: I thought there wouldn't be any surprises... Oh well. I almost didn't vote because of organisational problems (was volunteering for the election, but in a different place from where I have to vote) and thought it wouldn't matter much this time anyway. OK, it didn't really matter anyway.

Btw, someone mentioned the FDP slogans were good... Really? I am still laughing about "Digital first, Bedenken second" and "Fahrzeug, nicht Stehzeug". I think that those b&w posters of Mr "I'm too sexy for my suit" won them more votes than their bad puns, faulty logic, and bad German...

I did see backlash for the AfD's "hunting" metaphor, but the problem is they are using these provocations to generate a response, then go all measured and totally misunderstood victim, and successfully prevent real issues from being discussed.

[SeanF]

The result is certainly a dog's breakfast.

I can't see the CDU, CSU, FDP, and Greens being able to agree a coherent programme.

It's a worse result for Angela Merkel than Theresa May got in June.

[Toth]

1 hour ago, Mindwalker said:

Btw, someone mentioned the FDP slogans were good... Really? I am still laughing about "Digital first, Bedenken second" and "Fahrzeug, nicht Stehzeug". I think that those b&w posters of Mr "I'm too sexy for my suit" won them more votes than their bad puns, faulty logic, and bad German...

Okay, yeah, that "Bedenken second" thing irritated me as well, but I thought that it was vague enough for many people not to understand what exactly they mean with that (you could interprete optic cable expansion into it, something that is still lacking in rural districts).

I was really talking more about those dramatic sepia posters and the ones they arranged near my university campus, which were focussing only on their "Satchels instead of briefcases" slogan and other 'education first' style stuff, which I found actually sounded surprisingly grounded. For the FDP that is.

But the more I think about it, the more likely it becomes that their revival has less to do with campaigning and more with the AfD's constant swinging to the far-right scaring voters back into their arms. If that didn't happen, the election results might have become even worse...

[Mindwalker]

Well, most of their votes are probably their old base, the fans of good ol' neoliberalism, after all, their agenda is basically the same that it used to be. But the additional voters who got them back into parliament (and government) were probably swung by the hipster posters and paroles.

Yes, I DID take "Digital" to mean just what you said; I just take the second part to be very revealing (well, and the language/ grammar aspect): Bedenken = anti social warrior code for rules, protection of people or the environment, anything ... like with climate change, you know. Lindner jsut told us that they are all for meeting the goals regarding the prevention of climate change, just without any rules, because The Free Market will take care oft it. Genius! 'Cause anything regulation or state is "shared irresponsibility". GAH.

I don't know why these people annoy me even more than the AfD right now...

Speaking of which, Frauke Petry is happily continuing her destruction of the party from within, claiming she's more for a moderate party. Yeah, right. Anyway, you go girl!

[The Marquis de Leech]

34 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The result is certainly a dog's breakfast.

I can't see the CDU, CSU, FDP, and Greens being able to agree a coherent programme.

It's a worse result for Angela Merkel than Theresa May got in June.

I'd rather be in Merkel's shoes than May's. She's got the Chancellorship as long as she wants it, because of the incredible weakness of the SPD and its refusal to deal with Die Linke. Germany is in this quite awkward situation of being unable to change its government (a la Cold War Italy).

[SeanF]

15 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

I'd rather be in Merkel's shoes than May's. She's got the Chancellorship as long as she wants it, because of the incredible weakness of the SPD and its refusal to deal with Die Linke. Germany is in this quite awkward situation of being unable to change its government (a la Cold War Italy).

The CDU have enough MP's that no government can be formed without them.  The problem is that no coherent majority government can be formed with them.

The most coherent government would be a CDU/FDP minority, on the basis that they still outnumber the parties on the Left, and AFD probably won't vote against them most of the time, but my understanding is that Germany doesn't go in for minority governments.

[Alarich II]

A very interesting result, to say the least. From my perspective (based in Saxony), the biggest surprise was the FDP-result. Which I found quite encouraging. The results for AfD here are quite shocking, they are smashing the CDU into pieces - despite the CDU here forming one the most conservative wing of the CDU in general.

The Bavarian result will put pressure on the CSU, but the problem is that they have already copied many positions from the AfD and it didn't help them. So what will? The answer to that question is completely open. Probably nothing. It is quite likely that the AfD will establish itself right of the old conservatives and that this will be the new political reality from now on (just like SPD and Die Linke).

Considering that the biggest loss for the CDU was not to the AfD, but to the FDP, there is IMO a good argument to be made, that the fight on the right flank may just open the middle for the FDP to occupy the moderate positions and cost the CDU more than they can hope to recover.

Die Linke also has big problem: when you look at where voters went who voted for Die Linke last time, most of those who switched went to the AfD (400.000 votes net), which means that although Die Linke remained relatively stable, they are finding a new rival in their traditional fishing grounds which is no good news at all.

The Greens who would have loved an R2G-coalition are also in a problematic position: They can and do work with the CDU, but on most economic policies the FDP is much closer to the CDU than the Greens and the Greens hate the FDP even though (or maybe because) they have a big overlap on civil rights issues. Now the FDP doesn't want to get kicked out a second time, so they have to deliver on their promises, the CDU just took a major loss, so what can they concede without losing even more ground and the Greens are split between Realos (Kretschmann et. al) and Fundies (Hofreiter et al.), so what kind of concessions can they hope for? OTOH, they just escaped an election desaster because they could grab some of the crumbling SPD-vote, so what will become of them now that the SPD is also in the opposition? The choice is between a rock and a hard place.

[Happy Ent]

Honest question: Isn’t the FDP just the virtuous way of voting for strong restrictions on immigration? As far as I understand, the immigration policies of AfD and FDP are more or less the same (they want immigration to be handled like Canada, Australia, or the US is handling them).

Since AfD is unelectable for many voters, they go to the FDP instead. 

No?

[The guy from the Vale]

That's very likely to be one reason many people voted for them, and indeed, for all my dislike of the FDP, it would have been my recommendation for people who didn't want to vote for the radical right while still being unhappy about Merkel's decision on refugees.

That said, I still think the FDP's policies are ultimately detrimental to the country. They're just far less terrible than the AfD in the sense that they're not normalizing racist rhetoric or minimizing Nazism.

[Alarich II]

1 hour ago, Happy Ent said:

Honest question: Isn’t the FDP just the virtuous way of voting for strong restrictions on immigration? As far as I understand, the immigration policies of AfD and FDP are more or less the same (they want immigration to be handled like Canada, Australia, or the US is handling them).

Since AfD is unelectable for many voters, they go to the FDP instead. 

No?

Actually, no, the AfD wants a "Minus-Immigration" until an "acceptable" level is reached. So basically, they are saying: in theory we are okay with immigration but, *dogwhistle*, not until we have kicked out enough immigrants. The FDP position is: those who are not political refugees or asylum-seekers will have to meet certain criteria to come and work here. Which makes sense in my opinion.

But to me, the whole immigration-thing was never an important issue, tbh. Yes, very many people from other countries came here in 2015/16, but society didn't collapse, the economy didn't collapse. So when Merkel said: Wir schaffen das, I must say, that 2 years later, the diagnosis is yes, she was probably right: we can handle this. Now while everyone is having a clash of cultures, apocalyptic discussion about immigration, the scary things like mass-surveillance with automatic face-recognition or the massive civil rights infringement by the BKA are just slipping through under the guise of more security. We are seeing the vast tsunami of digitalization coming toward us and the Minister for Infrastructure simply doesn't get it, that we need more, better and faster Internet. The problem is - an we saw this in the public debate as well - everyone is looking back at 2015 and not forward.

Now, for me it was a choice between Greens and FDP. The problem is that the Greens in Saxony are too weak, and some kind of local representation was important to me. So I'd rather have some MPs from Saxony and the FDP rather than voting Green.

[Jo498]

I am not shocked at the overall result (I guessed CDU, SPD, Left results correctly within 1%, expected the AfD even stronger and the FDP and Greens somewhat weeker) but slightly shocked at the huge dominance of the AfD in the East. Especially considering that Saxony is among the more prosperous Eastern regions.

The FDP are the traditional Wendehals (turncoat) party. Except for tax cuts for the rich they do not really have any consistent position, certainly not on immigration policy and because of their fickle character one cannot count on what they will stick to or rather sacrifice in coalition deals. They always got stronger after a "grand coalition", but I am also surprised that they turned out so strong this time. (They were really helped by the media where they were treated as if they were in parliament in the last two years, not like someone in fully deserved oblivion. But I do not think they are safe from getting kicked out again the next time).

The main problem will be that a Jamaica coalition (if stable at all) will be forced to such compromises that it will amount to "business as usual" (i.e. the Merkelian stasis of the last 12 years) in most respects. CDU, especially CSU would like to move considerably to the right (in fields like immigration, law and order, surveillance etc.) to get some AfD voters back but such positions will lead to hard clashes with the Greens and partly with the FDP so in the end there will be some kind of compromise that will appear weak and "leftist" to the typical AfD voter, so it will not help a lot to recover these voters.

And the deeper problems, basically the huge distrust for the establishment (and the EU), the social policy desasters of the early 2000s Schröder administration and the problem of many regions (not only but especially in the East) faring badly (sometimes since two decades or more) will not be attacked efficiently at all. Neither will there be any progress in environmental policies (except for some lip service, check that Guardian article below) because the Greens' demands will be (more than) neutralized by the CDU/CSU/FDP who are deeply entrenched in the butts of the industry.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental

So nothing will get better and all the deeper causes for the rise of the AfD will probably remain. The latter might shoot themselves in the foot another few times but as long as the deeper issues remain, they are here to stay. Add to this that the next major (global) economic disturbance is overdue, the tensions in the EU/Europe, the loose cannon Trump, it is certainly going to get interesting in the euphemistic sense.

The only (but unlikely) hope is a thorough reformation of the SPD so they might have a chance at red-red-green some day but they will almost certainly be too weak in 4 years (because they are internally divided and apparently do not realize that regardless of contents they needed that option strategically) and it might never be enough now with another player in the game. (The crazy thing is that it would have been enough for rrg both 2005 and 2013 but the SPD preferred self destruction, that's why we are now where we are, in deep shit.) I also dearly hope that there will be some self-destruction within the CDU/CSU that is overdue, so when they get weaker there might arise new coaltion options for sensible policies.

 

[Jo498]

The immigration problem is not a deeper cause but it is a trigger. Because people are extremely pissed off in general about many things they take the immigrants as scapegoats and the "illegal" invitation by Merkel was the last straw that broke these people's trust in a government that had distrusted already for years for different reasons. (I think that the deepest issues here are twofold: the precarious economic/employment situation of many people that leads to general stress and insecurity and the unterstandable impression that the government does whatever it wants (with the help of EU institutions and the like) and is never really accountable. The "migration crisis" of 2015 combined these two factors: fear of foreign "hordes" (who take away your job, rape our women etc.) and the "welcome" decision of Merkel treating actual legal rules etc. in a cavalier fashion.)

I think it was hugely important and if the elections had been in late spring 2016 with the Cologne molestations in fresh memory, the AfD would have been even stronger. Now with Turkey and others blocking immigrants and the situation in Syria maybe somewhat better this topic will lose importance. Still, there are apparently so many people going nuts for fear of "islamization", "Eurabia" and whatnot that it will remain somewhat important and useful for the AfD (and the right wings of CDU/CSU).

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, Jo498 said:

The immigration problem is not a deeper cause but it is a trigger. Because people are extremely pissed off in general about many things they take the immigrants as scapegoats and the "illegal" invitation by Merkel was the last straw that broke these people's trust in a government that had distrusted already for years for different reasons. (I think that the deepest issues here are twofold: the precarious economic/employment situation of many people that leads to general stress and insecurity and the unterstandable impression that the government does whatever it wants (with the help of EU institutions and the like) and is never really accountable. The "migration crisis" of 2015 combined these two factors: fear of foreign "hordes" (who take away your job, rape our women etc.) and the "welcome" decision of Merkel treating actual legal rules etc. in a cavalier fashion.)

I think it was hugely important and if the elections had been in late spring 2016 with the Cologne molestations in fresh memory, the AfD would have been even stronger. Now with Turkey and others blocking immigrants and the situation in Syria maybe somewhat better this topic will lose importance. Still, there are apparently so many people going nuts for fear of "islamization", "Eurabia" and whatnot that it will remain somewhat important and useful for the AfD (and the right wings of CDU/CSU).

Look, it will die down once Eurabia and Islamization has been established, since those against it will then be an even greater minority.

[The guy from the Vale]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Look, it will die down once Eurabia and Islamization has been established, since those against it will then be an even greater minority.

That's gonna take another millennium or so. Not really concerned.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Happy Ent said:

Honest question: Isn’t the FDP just the virtuous way of voting for strong restrictions on immigration? As far as I understand, the immigration policies of AfD and FDP are more or less the same (they want immigration to be handled like Canada, Australia, or the US is handling them).

Since AfD is unelectable for many voters, they go to the FDP instead. 

No?

Traditionally no. With regards to the modern FDP (I use this term vaguely for the FDP from 2000 onwards), they really have no broad political vision as such. Their whole stick is small state, lower taxes, more free markets. Otherwise they are just opportunists. They have turned this no political content campaigning into an art form (arguably even more so than Merkel). Usually their campaigns consist of more or less attractive candidates, being pretty. Whether it being Christian Lindner, or Katja Suding. That's why I find their comeback so outrageous, as it poorly reflects on the intelligence of the common voter.

@Alarich IIThat's also the traditional FDP with Leutheusser-Scharrenberger and the late Hildegard Hammbrücher you are talking about. For the new milenium FDP of the Westerwelles, Lindners and Bahrs those civil rights are negotiable. It only comes into play with regards to a slimmer state.

2 hours ago, Alarich II said:

The Greens who would have loved an R2G-coalition are also in a problematic position: They can and do work with the CDU, but on most economic policies the FDP is much closer to the CDU than the Greens and the Greens hate the FDP even though (or maybe because) they have a big overlap on civil rights issues. Now the FDP doesn't want to get kicked out a second time, so they have to deliver on their promises, the CDU just took a major loss, so what can they concede without losing even more ground and the Greens are split between Realos (Kretschmann et. al) and Fundies (Hofreiter et al.), so what kind of concessions can they hope for? OTOH, they just escaped an election desaster because they could grab some of the crumbling SPD-vote, so what will become of them now that the SPD is also in the opposition? The choice is between a rock and a hard place.

52 minutes ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

That's very likely to be one reason many people voted for them, and indeed, for all my dislike of the FDP, it would have been my recommendation for people who didn't want to vote for the radical right while still being unhappy about Merkel's decision on refugees.

That said, I still think the FDP's policies are ultimately detrimental to the country. They're just far less terrible than the AfD in the sense that they're not normalizing racist rhetoric or minimizing Nazism.

Talking about FDP-AfD similarities. Guess who's, shady's back, shady's back. Frank Schäffler. Anybody remember that FDP dildo whose early anti Greece anti Euro rhethoric was the starting point for the AfD, he is back in the Bundestag for the FDP (I honestly  thought he switched parties back then).

 

3 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Speaking of which, Frauke Petry is happily continuing her destruction of the party from within, claiming she's more for a moderate party. Yeah, right. Anyway, you go girl!

You mean Frauke "vökisch sollte nicht mehr nicht negativ besetzt sein" Petry. Now that's some moderate politician...

 

14 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Where do people think the AFD boost is coming from? If the CDU decline is mostly going to the FDP, that presumably means the AFD is getting former SPD voters (interesting they'd be going there, rather than Die Linke, given AFD's economics).

https://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/analyse-wanderung.shtml

Shows the voter migration. The CDU lost 1.4 m to the FDP.

Why the FDP got votes.

https://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/umfrage-fdp.shtml

I'll translate the main points if you will. Somebody else can be bothered to fix my hopefully accurate translations.

Anyway the second link is about the FDP.

 

Voters perception of the FDP (general electorate)

Without Lindner [their Party Leader] they wouldn't stand a chance.

70% agreement with that statement

I'd like the FDP to be part of a future Goverment.

45% agreement.

I like their harsher course on refugees.

42% agreement

Is paying too many favor to its electorate

67% agreement

Is a party of social cold [doesn't give two fucks about the poor].

46% agreement

 

Opinions of FDP voters on their own party.

Has clearer concepts with regards to the future than other parties.

76% of FDP voters think that.

Who wants to avoid a new Grand Coalition [of CDU and SPD] has to vote for the FDP

70% of FDP voters think that. [I'll just give the % numbers for the final three]

I like the parties harder course on refugees.

66%

Without Lindner they wouldn't stand a chance.

59%

I wouldn't vote for the FDP without Lindner

42%

 

Make of that what you will. That's what their voters believe.

Let's take a look what happened over there at Merkel's CDU

https://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/umfrage-cdu.shtml

I'll skip directly to:

Views of the general electorate on the CDU/CSU

Under the Leadership of the Union [CDU CSU] the gap between rich and poor has increased

69% of the electorate agree with that statement

The CDU has neglected the worries and concerns of the people with its refugee policy

55% of the electorate think that

Twelve years of Merkel are enough

51% of the electorate think that.

The most important argument for the CDU is Merkel

50% Think that.

Merkel's political convictions are an unknown

48% think that.

Who could've thought that campaigning without substance or content could lead to that. Anyway,

now what do CDU/CSU voters think of their own party.

The most important argument to vote for the CDU/CSU is Merkel

70% of CDU/CSU voters think that [I'll just give % from here on, it will be CDU/CSU voters only and it's agreement with the statement]

Seehofer [CSU leader] has harmed Merkel with his behavior.

62%

CDU and CSU are not as close as they used to be

55%

I'd like to be able to vote for the CSU outside of Bavaria

41%

With the CDU the gap between the rich and the poor has widened

41%

Now let's go to former CDU/CSU voters.

The CDU neglected the worries of the people with its refugee policy

67% of former CDU/CSU voters think that.

CDU and CSU are not close as they used to be

67% of former CDU/CSU voters think that

I would like to be able to vote for the CSU outside of Bavaria

60% of former CDU voters think that

I'll skip a few numbers/graphics.

Satisfaction with Merkel regarding refugee/asylum policy.

CDU/CSU (current)

66% Satisfied

34% not satisfied.

Former CDU/CSU voters

28% satisfied

72% not satisfied

 

Now let's switch over the AfD, I know I will need a shower after that.

https://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/umfrage-afd.shtml

Opinions on the AfD (General electorate)

The AfD understood better, that people feel no longer safe.

49%

I think it's good, that the AfD wants to reduce the influence of Islam in Germany

37%

I think it's good that the AfD wants to reduce the number of refugees moving into Germany

35%

The AfD hasn't done enough to distance itself from right extremist positions

86%

 

Opinions of AfD voters on the AfD.

The AfD understood better, that people feel no longer safe.

99%

I think it's good, that the AfD wants to reduce the influence of Islam in Germany

99%

I think it's good that the AfD wants to reduce the number of refugees moving into Germany

96%

The AfD is the only party with which I could voice my protest.

85%

The AfD hasn't done enough to distance itself from right extremist positions

55%

Some of that is something between bizarre and irrational. E.g. "Reducing the influence of Islam in Germany", I wasn't aware there was sharia law in place in Saxony. The 55% of AfD voters who feel the party they actually voted for hasn't done enough to distance itself from right extremist positions, now I'd love to hear their rational. They are Nazis, I don't like Nazis, I voted for Nazis.

Anyway.

AfD voters: "I worry about...

...losing our German culture" 95%

...that our life in Germany is undergoing too many changes" 94%

...the influence of Islam in Germany is becoming too strong" 92%

...that our nation is drifting too much apart" 91%

...a massive increase of crime in the future" 91%

AfD voters: "Very important for my vote was...

...fighting terrorism" 69%

...fighting crime." 61%

...immigration of refugees." 60%

 

There's actually one interesting graphic left on the AfD page, where they interviewers created a dichotomy between an open Germany vs. National borders.

A majority in all the other parties favour an open Germany (the FDP being the weakest with 61% in favour of the open Germany and 37% opposing it (Green voters being the strongest with 97 to 3) CDU/CSU (79 to 20 btw.)), with the AfD it's (not surprisingly though) just the other way round. With 85% of their voters favouring stronger national borders, and only 14% favouring an open Germany.