German politics xth attempt

[Loge]

One week after the election, one has to wonder about Merkel. When Volker Kauder was re-elected leader of the Chistian Democrats he only got 180 votes out of 239 cast and a total of 246 seats the party holds in the bundestag. If that's all she gets from her own party in the election for chancellor she won't have a majority.

[Alarich II]

The problem probably won't come from her own party, nor the Greens or Liberals. It's the CSU that's going to be an unpredictable mess of political infighting, backstabbing and political awfulness (even more than usual). I really whish we could just dump this regressive regional party.

[Loge]

So, the Jamaica talks have failed, after a month of "probing." This could get interesting. The Social Democrats still aren't ready for another coalition with Merkel. Maybe it's time for the CDU to find themselves a new leader.

BTW: Merkel can be elected chancellor by a mere plurality, but a minority government on the federal level is unprecedented in post WWII Germany. Much depends on president Steinmeier now.

[Toth]

Fuck the FDP, fuck the CSU sideways. I have absolutely no idea what Mr. Sepia Poser is thinking, gambling on a new election when the public now finally got a grasp on how callous the demanded FDP policies actually were.

I'm nervous about what would happen if they actually go for a new election. Sure, the Greens will gain a bit (maybe in part to Seehofer's "they may have been constantly compromising, but for me they weren't compromising at all because I am a regressive populist who doesn't care about the future"), but after the initial self-destruction the AfD didn't make so many more audible scandals and I just fear that some goldfish voters with a 'let's punish the establishment' mentality will go for the 'oh well, let's shoot ourselves into the foot out of protest' option once the coalition-making is declared a complete failure on all fronts.

[Loge]

Well, Merkel harvests what she has been sowing these last 12 years. Her coalitions so far didn't end well for her coalition partners, so it's no wonder they are reluctant to join another Merkel-led coalition. Only the Greens are still unscarred, but the bad results of  CDU and CSU make a coalition impossible.

I don't think a re-election would change much. At least the opinion polls don't indicate any significant change from the election result. It would take a significant upswing for either the CDU or the SPD to change things.

A minority government might be interesting. All important decisions require a vote in the Bundesrat anyway, so the notion of a ruling majority has been a fiction for some time. It's 13 different coalition in 16 states.

[Mindwalker]

A coalition between two centrist/ 2 right-wing parties will not come to pass. I'm devastated.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Could this cause Merkel to lose her chancellorship? And if so, what then?

[The guy from the Vale]

Yes, it could. Then we'd need to elect the Bundestag again. And while I think I had a decent grasp of the last election, this one might well turn into a giant unpredictable mess 

[Loge]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Could this cause Merkel to lose her chancellorship? And if so, what then?

Yes, it could. Technically, her term in office ended when the new Bundestag convened. She is now caretaker chancellor and needs to be elected again. The procedure for electing a chancellor is this: The president proposes a candidate to the Bundestag, the Bundestag votes. It takes yes votes from a majority of the Bundestag's members to elect her. As things are, she wouldn't get that majority. The Bundestag then has two weeks to try again. After that, it's an open race and the candidate with the most votes (plurality) wins. If that candidate doesn't have a majority, the president can choose to dissolve the Bundestag instead of naming her chancellor. So, unless she can convince the Social Democrats to change their mind, she has to lose two votes before she can get elected. Once elected, she could only be overthrown by a majority vote in favour of somebody else, which is practically impossible as things are. The president doesn't favour a new election and wants to talk to the parties. His statement before the press this afternoon sounded like he wants his own party, the Social Democrats, to change their minds on (not) joining another coalition with the C parties. If that fails it's either minority government or re-election. In the latter case, it's not certain that Merkel would still be the CDU's candidate for chancellor. 

[Alarich II]

The problem for the CDU is this: who could take over from Merkel? I don't see any viable candidate. The SPD cannot change their minds now: if they do, they will be branded as traitors forever and will decline even more. The Greens are in a bad Position, because they are now open to attacks from the left and the right, although they can probably manage turn out their base in reasonable numbers and of all the "small" parties they have the biggest membership, so there's a certain core that will sustain them. The Left has a problem, because their campaign manager has retired over internal troubles and more than ever they appear deeply divided over their particular ideological purity tests. The FDP probably thought that this was a clever move, but I'm not sure: they will get all the blame for the new elections and then there's the question wether the voters will vote for ideological purity (FDP) or stability (CDU), so it is quite possible that this might strengthen the CDU. Finally, the most interesting question will be the mind of the AfD-voters. Will they give their vote to the AfD again? Will the CDU lose even more votes to them. Or will the CDU reposition itself further right and win back votes. Both outcomes are possible. The next few days/weeks will be interesting...

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Well, that escalated quickly.

I am curious what will happen next. A new election, with what outcome?

Some votes shifting from the Greens to the Social Democrats? Maybe the FDP will get knocked down again to normal size (basically cutting their result in half). Jamaica did not fail because of the FDP. It was more the differences between a centre-left party who had drawn line on human rights (refugees) and their ecological core, and a right wing populist party (CSU), who had drawn line on refugees as well, and three parties (FDP, CSU and CDU) who are overly protective on coal as an energy source, and wanted to avoid too harsh regulations the car industry (Germany's industrial backbone).

Lindner simply tried to upstage the other parties by seizing the initiative and making that announcement. Of course he is a ridiculous imposter - in other news water is wet. But that didn't stop people from voting for him.I think/hope this backfires and the electorate punishes him and his ridiculous posse, this time around.

With all that stuff going on, I am kinda mad at the SPD, whose whole new gig appears to be hackling from the sidelines. I don't think this new strategy is gonna end too well for them. I mean, I can see why they didn't want to another turn on the Merkel does nothing, but feasts on her coalition partner. However, leaning back at the same time and saying. haha, they couldn't even form a goverment, oh btw. we are not participating in any coalition talks in any shape or form. That has to be punished by the electorate, I am not sure where the electoral rock bottom is for them, but I am sure we'll find out if a new election is called.

So let's see if chieftain crazy Horst remains in charge of silly tribe in the south. Or if that bozo Söder takes over. I am really not sure, which of those two is the bigger clown.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 hours ago, Loge said:

Yes, it could. Technically, her term in office ended when the new Bundestag convened. She is now caretaker chancellor and needs to be elected again. The procedure for electing a chancellor is this: The president proposes a candidate to the Bundestag, the Bundestag votes. It takes yes votes from a majority of the Bundestag's members to elect her. As things are, she wouldn't get that majority. The Bundestag then has two weeks to try again. After that, it's an open race and the candidate with the most votes (plurality) wins. If that candidate doesn't have a majority, the president can choose to dissolve the Bundestag instead of naming her chancellor. So, unless she can convince the Social Democrats to change their mind, she has to lose two votes before she can get elected. Once elected, she could only be overthrown by a majority vote in favour of somebody else, which is practically impossible as things are. The president doesn't favour a new election and wants to talk to the parties. His statement before the press this afternoon sounded like he wants his own party, the Social Democrats, to change their minds on (not) joining another coalition with the C parties. If that fails it's either minority government or re-election. In the latter case, it's not certain that Merkel would still be the CDU's candidate for chancellor. 

Thanks for the rundown. I've got to say the German government has a lot of moving parts. I'm looking at a diagram right now and it looks kind of chaotic. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

14 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Thanks for the rundown. I've got to say the German government has a lot of moving parts. I'm looking at a diagram right now and it looks kind of chaotic. 

It's actually way less complicated than it looks on that graphic.

The key player is the the parliament (Bundestag, or Federal Diet as it is called on the graphic). Just start from there.

Their job is to pass laws and budgets (like in any other democracy it's simply the legislative body). As for goverment building (now comes a difference to the US), the parliament elects the chancellor (simple majority will do).

The chancellor picks her (or his) cabinet (executive body). And they get the formal appointment by the President (otherwise a pretty useless position, I compared it to the role of the Queen in British politics once).

If a vacancy on the supreme court arises (and of their term or age limit), the governing parties agree on their replacements, and they get formally appointed by the president (judificary part).

That's essential the important bit.

Now let's get a to the right side of your diagram, which makes it look a bit more complicated.

As the name Federal Republic of Germany suggests, it consists of 16 states. Each state has their own parliament, goverment and courts. And with a somewhat limited power to pass laws compared to the US. (in any case in Germany there's also a law hierarchy. The higher (federal) law beats state law. Now the 16 states are represented in the second chamber of legislation.

The Bundesrat or Federal council as it is called in your graphic. Population size of each state determines their voting power. The biggest states have six votes, the smallest have three. For some laws the consent of the states is needed (laws that affect the governing of the states, that interfere with their finances (so tax laws) and changes in the constitution). Otherwise they can also propose legislation by putting it forward to the Chancellor, which is then discussed and (possibly) passed into law by the Bundestag (did I mention that's the keyplayer).

I think, that's about it. Ah, I forgot the election of the President. Basically the president gets elected by the Bundesversammlung (Federal assembly). The parties in the Bundestag and in the state legislatures send people there. Usually you see some celebrities there. They then get to vote on proposed candidates.

I hope that cleared things up a bit.

[Loge]

Well, one peculiarity of the system is that it's the state governments that are represented in the Federal Council. That somewhat blurs the lines between executive and legislative. And since these governments are usually coalitions which don't match the coalition in the Bundestag there is a lot of bargaining / consensus building involved in legislation. One of the things the Jamaica talks broke up over is a law that lets the family of war refugees (who haven't been granted asylumn) come to Germany. That law was passed by the Grand Coalition as part of a deal with the Greens, who at the time were in opposition on the federal level but sit in a lot of state governments, so their votes were needed in the Bundesrat. Here is the latter's composition. The catch is: it's not really individual seats. Each state speaks with one voice. It's votes can't be split. The colours in the diagram represent the parties in the respective government. Bottom line: everybody is permanently in coalition with everybody else - somewhere.

[Loge]

Looks like the old coalition will continue, after all. Merkel, Seehofer and Schulz are to meet with Steinmeier next week. Schulz has announced that he'll let the SPD members vote before entering another coalition with the Christian Democrats.

[Mindwalker]

If the SPD had a little bit of spine left, they would demand Schmidt to be let go before entering negotiations with the CDU/ CSU. Otherwise, the Social Democrats fully deserve what they will get in about four years time.

[The guy from the Vale]

Why not shoot a little bit higher and require that the CSU not be included in the coalition talks or government and the Greens be brought in as well? The SPD is in a rather strong position here... but then, it's the SPD. They're not going to use their strong negotiating position for anything.

[Alarich II]

56 minutes ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

 The SPD is in a rather strong position here... but then, it's the SPD. They're not going to use their strong negotiating position for anything.

If you look at what the last government coalition achieved, you'll find very many SPD policies. Probably more than CDU policies. And even more important: those policies (like minimum wage) are well received in the general population. But did that help them? No.

The problem for the SPD is not that they aren't using their strong negotiating position (although I believe they were stronger in 2013). Their problem is that they are reliable, mostly sensible and boring (like the CDU). And apparently voters don't really like that: Wenn's dem Esel zu wohl wird, geht er aufs Eis...

My prediction is: if the SPD does enter another coalition, they'll lose even more votes next time.

[The guy from the Vale]

I'm not going to disagree with you there. What I meant is rather that the SPD doesn't seem able or willing to play political hardball, tout their own accomplishments, or otherwise determine the tone and content of the conversation most of the time. Their reliable/sensible/boring position is hampering them at a time where they are entirely in the position to dictate terms - not just on policy (where they're not always great but also not uniquely terrible), but also on personnel and coalition matters. After the last Grand Coalition and the Schmidt debacle, they have no reason to trust the CSU at all, so forcing an in-Union split might well be an interesting development.

[Alarich II]

30 minutes ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

 forcing an in-Union split might well be an interesting development.

The CDU will not agree with that, not in the current political climate.