kiko

German politics xth attempt

279 posts in this topic

20 hours ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

Why not shoot a little bit higher and require that the CSU not be included in the coalition talks or government and the Greens be brought in as well?

Oh, definitely! But it's the SPD, so I try to have low expectations...

Quote

The SPD is in a rather strong position here... but then, it's the SPD. They're not going to use their strong negotiating position for anything.

Yup. Nahles makes some noise about being annoyed and having trust issues, Merkel softly 'rebukes' Schmidt, and the SPD rolls over "for the country." Actually, I think THE COUNTRY would understand that they wouldn't form a coalition partner that has proven untrustworthy, particulary since a lot of people in THE COUNTRY are weary of glyphosate...

I watched a talk show yesterday, and the SPD guy managed to make Jens Spahn look like the rational one! (OK, probably the host was a factor, too, but still.)  *facepalm*

Edited by Mindwalker

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No. But I agree with @theguyfromtheVale  Simply insists on cutting out that 6% party of crazies from the south. Or ram down some sort of identity politics down their throats that is tough/impossible to swallow for the CSU. And I don't mean just their refugee politics proposal. I mean something like the legal quota for women on company boards - or only alcohol free beer on the Octoberfest for that matter. And of course no piece of CSU legislation should be found in a new coalition paper. Just humiliate that 6% party as much as possible.

Edited by Notone

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Is it just me or are we officially looking like a banana republic at the moment?

I mean, it's still highly entertaining. The Green Party, so proud of having sold their grandmas during the Jamaica negotiations. So sad they still won't be allowed to govern. Mr I-look-so-hot-in-gritty-b&w, so proud of... I have no idea what. The leader of the SPD, petulantly professing he doesn't aspire to anything. The leader of the Bavarian Liberation Front desperately clinging to his chair. The AfD ... ugh no, not entertaining. And Merkel, as usual, silent.

 

*Listening to: Boomtown Rats, Banana Republic

Edited by Mindwalker

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So, Seehofer will resign as Bavarian prime minister but stay chairman of the CSU. I wonder if he'll take up a cabinet post in Berlin. As for splitting the C parties, they'd need the Greens or the FDP for that.  After all, the "grand coalition" isn't so grand anymore. They're barely strong enough to have a reliable majority. CDU and SPD don't have a majority at all without the CSU. 

The elephant in the room is of course the circumstance that Merkel lost the election but is still alternativlos. If she stays for another full term the CDU will be down in the low 20s and the SPD even worse.

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On 4.12.2017 at 4:39 PM, Loge said:

So, Seehofer will resign as Bavarian prime minister but stay chairman of the CSU. I wonder if he'll take up a cabinet post in Berlin. As for splitting the C parties, they'd need the Greens or the FDP for that.  After all, the "grand coalition" isn't so grand anymore. They're barely strong enough to have a reliable majority. CDU and SPD don't have a majority at all without the CSU. 

The elephant in the room is of course the circumstance that Merkel lost the election but is still alternativlos. If she stays for another full term the CDU will be down in the low 20s and the SPD even worse.

That shouldn't be a problem, as the CDU is a bit easy on political issues. And Greens and SPD have hammered out coalition agreements in the past.

With regards to the CSU, doesn't really matter which of those two clowns is driving that clown car. Both are horrible in their own way.

Anyway, so the crybabies from the FDP now consider to start the Jamaica talks all over again. Whch coincides with the FDP dropping in the polls a few days ago.

Edited by Notone

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Looks like we're going to have another grand coalition, after all. This one won't come cheap. 

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This agreement looks horrible on many levels.

No tax increase for high incomes.

Not a real effort to even pretend to hit the emission targets for 2020 (they were unattainable, but at least put in some effort).

And they gave in to the crazies from Bavaria on their wishlist.

SPD what are you good for (absolutely nothing).

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Yep. From a leftish perspective, even Jamaica would have been better. For all the talk of the Greens compromising too much, they never seemed to cave quite as much as the SPD did here.

Well, I guess that just confirms what everybody already knew: That this particular incarnation of the SPD is just not worth voting for at all.

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22 hours ago, Notone said:

This agreement looks horrible on many levels.

No tax increase for high incomes.

Not a real effort to even pretend to hit the emission targets for 2020 (they were unattainable, but at least put in some effort).

And they gave in to the crazies from Bavaria on their wishlist.

SPD what are you good for (absolutely nothing).

Well put. They are always leftist(ish) when they are the opposition (or pretending to soon be the opposition). Merkel has out-merkeled them again, and I don't blame her, I blame these spineless blabbering idiots.

I think this is a relatively accurate history of the SPD: http://taz.de/Aus-Le-Monde-diplomatique/!5476419/

I also like this comment by Unsinn:

Die Köpfe der Menschen im Jahre 2018 sind durch die seit über 30 Jahren subtil, aber wirksam eingesetzte neoliberale Gehirnwäsche so ausgerichtet, dass das "gesellschaftliche Gewebe" nicht mehr verändert werden kann.

Über sinnverheißende Lehrstuhlfürsten, marktradikale "Stiftungen" und politikberatende Think-Tanks ist es offenbar für jedermann selbstverständlich geworden, dass die gesellschaftliche Individualisierung und die damit verbundene zwangsläufige Ungleichheit wie ein Naturgesetz anerkannt werden.

Im Billig-Billig-Land gibt es kaum eine soziale Schicht, die man mit der Parole „Eigentum verpflichtet“ oder mit Solidaritätsappellen zum "Umbau von Institutionen und Mentalitäten" begeistern könnte.

 

Edited by Mindwalker

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Apparently it comes fairly cheap. If anybody thought the situation could not get worse, here we are. SPD will again provide a majority for Merkel with general policies remaining Merkelian and then they will be surprised when they get something like 16% the next time.

As someone who is (economically) something of a Leftist, it is depressing to be almost happy that there is now a right wing party that at least stirs things up a little. Although it is more likely that the Left Party will become ever more internally divided because of the success of the AfD, so the "split" caused by the AfD on the right wing side of the spectrum will not really help the left.

And in another four years time I would not be too surprised if we get a black-blue(-yellow) coalition. It seems unthinkable now (but so did black-green not so long ago) and a 25% CDU will become ever more flexible in its alliances.

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8 hours ago, Jo498 said:

And in another four years time I would not be too surprised if we get a black-blue(-yellow) coalition. It seems unthinkable now (but so did black-green not so long ago) and a 25% CDU will become ever more flexible in its alliances.

Unthinkable? No, not really. Just remember how von Beust won his first mayoral majority. It was a coalition of CDU, FDP and Schill. Small surprise that a lot of those Schill troglodytes found their way to the AfD after their old party crashed and burned (quite spectacularly I might add).

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12 hours ago, Notone said:

Unthinkable? No, not really. Just remember how von Beust won his first mayoral majority. It was a coalition of CDU, FDP and Schill. Small surprise that a lot of those Schill troglodytes found their way to the AfD after their old party crashed and burned (quite spectacularly I might add).

That was just Hamburg, though. Federal government is a completely different beast. If the AfD doesn't tear itself apart we will see them as part of a regional government, eventually. But it's a long way before they'll be part of a federal government. 

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It depends. One factor is the internal strife within the AfD. It is the great undeserved luck of the established parties that they keep shooting themselves in the foot. Another factor is how bad the CDU/CSU will fare, e.g. in the fall elections in Bavaria. Bad performance will bring their internal tensions out more clearly. From this could follow a considerably more conservative re-alignment of the union parties which could weaken the AfD in the long run but more importantly facilitate black-blue alliances in the short run.

Schill was 15 years ago, this shows that the potential for far right parties has always been there (and this was in rich and cosmopolitic Hamburg, "Tor zur Welt", not in provincial Saxony or Anhalt).

Today, I'd estimate 4-5 years, roughly one "successful" regional black-blue coalition government term, before it becomes a live option for the federal government. 

And there are other factors. Germany (or at least the majority) is doing well economically. But the next crisis is overdue (late 80s, dot com around 2000, 2007/08 and now 10 years without any major disruption, it will happen, the question is not if but when) and things could turn far more ugly. And another terrorist attack (+ security blunders) or a few bad rape cases would also shift public opinion further right.

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A future black-blue coalition might at least have the effect of denting the AFD's anti-establishment credentials. The analogy I'm thinking of is Finland, where the equivalent nationalists were invited into coalition, ended up getting associated with stuff their supporters didn't like, and suffered a nasty split. It's tough being a junior coalition partner at the best of times - doubly so when you're a protest party.

Meanwhile, has the SPD never heard of PASOK?

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They always think "it's different this time/in our case/not comparable etc." By now I think they are almost beyond redemption. Even after they made a huge mess (joined war efforts in the balkans and destroyed the pension and welfare system) under Schroeder they were given two chances for redemption and one dire warning. Because Red-red-green would have had majorities both 2005-09 and 2013-17. They did not take the chance. The warning was their devastating result in 2009 when Merkel got all the praise and they got all the blame for the policies of the Grand Coalition since 2005 (Granted, voters who vote like that are also extraordinarily stupid and almost deserve more Merkel!)

It is hard to believe in so much stupidity and some people think that it is all part of a conspiracy or at least that the ones in power in that party are fine being a junior partner as long as it's enough posts and lavish monies for them personally.

To be fair, now they are in such a fix that there is no good solution (because the leftist coalition is not possible anymore) and one could make the argument that this time another coalition is the only chance. But then they should have bargained MUCH harder, e.g. get rid of Merkel, implement far more "socialist" policies than it appears now etc. They are tame lapdogs and don't realize it.

 

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Well, Merkel's CDU didn't really do well in 2009. The Liberals won that election. They just didn't make anything of it, which led to the 2013 disaster. The only time Merkel led the CDU to a good result was 2013. 2005 they barely came out ahead of the SPD, after having lead the opinion polls by a large margin for many months. 2017, well that what we are dealing with now. Problem for the SPD is that they don't benefit from the CDU's relative weakness. Nor did being in opposition from 2009-2013 do them any good. As for the current coalition talks, there's only so much you can accomplish with a mere 20% of the votes.

The SPD has been crippled by the rise of the Left Party, and the Greens before that. The same is going to happen to the CDU is the AfD stays around.

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As the SPD's failing (destruction of social system and even worse of the regulations in finance etc., wars in the balkan) were the major factor in the rise of the Leftist party, they are again to blame for this. But the worse thing is that they did not realize the chances of this split on the Left, namely that the combined Left would still have made it possible for them to take power. (This was particularly idiotic because during that period they had several Red-red coalitions locally). After declining that option for power twice, what would have been reason to vote for them if it is almost guaranteed to mean that Merkel will remain in power? What's the point of democracy if nothing changes no matter whom you vote for?

They deserve to fall to pieces but one still must hope that they don't because otherwise there will not be any option for a left of center government for decades. (Taking into account that Schroeder/Fischer de facto was hardly left of center, it has already been decades.)

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There was no real option for a coalition of SPD, Greens, and Left Party in 2005 or 2013. Just because they are all nominally left-winged parties doesn't mean they could have formed a working government. The differences are too serious. The Left's anti-Western and particularly anti-NATO stance won't sit well with either SPD or Greens. And the Greens aren't exactly leftist on the economy. Neither is the SPD. What left-wingers they had left with Lafontaine. There might be some back-pedalling on the Hartz reforms, but when it comes to stuff like free trade they are still as neoliberal as they were under Schroeder.

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4 hours ago, Loge said:

There was no real option for a coalition of SPD, Greens, and Left Party in 2005 or 2013. Just because they are all nominally left-winged parties doesn't mean they could have formed a working government. The differences are too serious. The Left's anti-Western and particularly anti-NATO stance won't sit well with either SPD or Greens. And the Greens aren't exactly leftist on the economy. Neither is the SPD. What left-wingers they had left with Lafontaine. There might be some back-pedalling on the Hartz reforms, but when it comes to stuff like free trade they are still as neoliberal as they were under Schroeder.

Don't forget Wagenknecht's and Lafontaine's Nationalistic tendencies. That's kinda huge turnoff with regards to the so called Left.

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Well, Lafontaine and Wagenknecht think that the welfare state works only within the boundaries of the nation state. I don't think they are wrong. They are a minority in the party, though. The majority still glorifies the communist past in East Germany and the Soviet Union.

Meanwhile, the SPD party convention has voted in favour of formal coalition talks with the C-parties. It's only a 56 % majority and they pretend that the results of the "probing" are just a starting point for the real negotiations. Hmm. Apparently, there's to be a vote of the 440,00 party members on the final coalition agreement. Some think that puts the SPD in a stronger negotiating position. I'm not so sure. It will be interesting to see which cabinet posts the SPD goes after. Looks like Gabriel really likes to be foreign minister. Finance is probably more important, though. But looking at the hate Schäuble attracted in the mediterranean countries over the Euro crisis, the SPD might be reluctant to take that portfolio.

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