kiko

German politics xth attempt

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A recent study about the voting patterns of Germans of Turkish and Russian descent:

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Deutschtuerken-waehlen-links-Russlanddeutsche-Union-und-Linke-3987180.html

FWIW  I don't think the Linke likes "Putin's Russia". They mainly have not jumped unto the new cold war bandwagon. Actually, almost all experts (most prominently Krone-Schmalz, but I recently read another interview with a professor whose name I forgot) on Russia agree that a more level-headed (i.e. less demonization) policy is advisable. Unfortunately, almost all media disagree as can be seen in the news about Syria. We have known for years now that the "rebels" are involved with ISIS and furthermore that they cannot win despite getting weapons from certain sources (and if they won it would probably lead to massacres of many non-islamist groups in Syria, certainly of non-muslims), so there is no option to end this war against Assad (and Putin) but the media keep painting them as some kind of Hitler/Saddam monsters. It is so clear that this is all power play to support "our" great allies, the democratic republic of Saudi Arabia holding/extending their influence against the satanic forces of Assad, Iran and Putin. Which is really disgusting.

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29 minutes ago, Jo498 said:

A recent study about the voting patterns of Germans of Turkish and Russian descent:

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Deutschtuerken-waehlen-links-Russlanddeutsche-Union-und-Linke-3987180.html

FWIW  I don't think the Linke likes "Putin's Russia".

I think for some of their leaders, it goes beyond not demonizing Putin. They are far more understanding towards him than, say, Erdogan.

I'll address yout other points later.

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7 hours ago, Jo498 said:

A recent study about the voting patterns of Germans of Turkish and Russian descent:

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Deutschtuerken-waehlen-links-Russlanddeutsche-Union-und-Linke-3987180.html

FWIW  I don't think the Linke likes "Putin's Russia". They mainly have not jumped unto the new cold war bandwagon. Actually, almost all experts (most prominently Krone-Schmalz, but I recently read another interview with a professor whose name I forgot) on Russia agree that a more level-headed (i.e. less demonization) policy is advisable. Unfortunately, almost all media disagree as can be seen in the news about Syria. We have known for years now that the "rebels" are involved with ISIS and furthermore that they cannot win despite getting weapons from certain sources (and if they won it would probably lead to massacres of many non-islamist groups in Syria, certainly of non-muslims), so there is no option to end this war against Assad (and Putin) but the media keep painting them as some kind of Hitler/Saddam monsters. It is so clear that this is all power play to support "our" great allies, the democratic republic of Saudi Arabia holding/extending their influence against the satanic forces of Assad, Iran and Putin. Which is really disgusting.

THe linked text and described study has some limitations however.

First, it doesn't really address my point of voter migration from the Left to the AfD with a Russian background. As it only gives the bare numbers. Second the author of the study says that the AfD vote among German Russian is a bit higher (not as much as people (including sincerely yours) are lead to believe). Same with the vote for the Left. Giving how the party is sucking up to Putin (not demonizing him is really downplaying it), I'd be curious how much influence that has on their voting decission. The CDU vote is also itself not that surprising, given that Kohl was the chancellor that brought them back here, with a relatively easy route to citizenship (compared to Turks living here).

As for the Turkish voters bit (although unrelated). The author of the study himself say something about composition of his sample. Kurds and Alevites are overrepresented compared to muslim Turks. And that those groups are not particularly fond of Erdogan is not really surprising, is it?

As for Syria. Check the old middle East thread. You are preaching to the choir here. I think I said as much there. However that there's no realistic way to replace Assad doesn't justify human rights violation by him and Putin, does it?

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Nobody is justifying human rights violations. Although I think that "human rights violations" have clearly outstayed their welcome as plausible casus belli after the disasters in the near/middle east and Libya and the utter callousness of the West towards the war in Yemen as well as generally sucking up to Saudi Arabia and China.

And it can hardly be denied that the western/German mainstream media hardly pass an opportunity to demonize Putin and Assad instead of trying to get a more precise picture of the situation and discuss plausible policy options of coming to some kind of arrangement with e.g. Assad. Because otherwise the war will simply continue, I fear.

To turn back to German politics. Not demonizing Russia is important for two reasons, first the refugee problem will only get somewhat better if the near/middle east become more stable. Second, and probably more importantly, Germany cannot completely turn her back to Russia. I lived through the cold war for all my childhood and teenage years and I don't want another one. A bit more extravagantly, I do think that there are certain similarities and ties between Germany and Russia (as the great "continental powers" of the 19th century that were allies against Napoleon but then unfortunately clashed in the world wars) and that peaceful and good business relations to Russia are important for all kinds of reasons, very practically: gas, and also more general historical and geopolitical ones.

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Posted (edited)

No list of ministers from the SPD yet, but Gabriel has been told that he is out: 

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/sigmar-gabriel-ex-spd-chef-wird-neuer-regierung-nicht-angehoeren-a-1197029.html

 

update: We now have a full cabinet list. Maas to be foreign minister. Scholz finance, as expected. Seehofer interior. Von der Leyen keeps defence, because she has kept the armed forces in such good shape ...

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/groko-einigung-die-neuen-gesichter-im-schwarz-roten-kabinett-15290355.html

Edited by Loge

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On 7.3.2018 at 6:59 PM, Jo498 said:

Nobody is justifying human rights violations. Although I think that "human rights violations" have clearly outstayed their welcome as plausible casus belli after the disasters in the near/middle east and Libya and the utter callousness of the West towards the war in Yemen as well as generally sucking up to Saudi Arabia and China.

Last word from me on that matter. You are awfully close to run with a moral equivalency argument here. I mean, what's your point there? Saudi Arabia, Turkey and China are also human rights violators, so let's not talk about the shit Russia and Assad are doing? You are right, both China and Saudi Arabia are horrible, but that's not related to Russia and Assad being horrible.

Anyway. Back to the German politics.

So the SPD have announced their new dream team. Scholz is new finance minister, and vice-chancellor (thus the next chancellor candidate for them). If that isn't exciting, then I don't know what is - ok, a bottle of valium is in comparission more interesting. Maas is really becoming the new foreign minister, another appointment that makes me want to scream in ecstasy (or want to try ecstasy, it's either one or the other). So he will step in to replace the Scholzbot when the SPD figures out he is as interesting as watching uranium turn into lead in real time. What else is there. Ah right Barley moves up in the world of ministires. Two new women in charge of federal ministires (Giffey and Schulze). I can't say I have heard of either, so that's at least somewhat interesting. Oh, the SPD has managed to dig up the corpse of Hubertus Heil and give him a big ministry. Hubertus fucking Heil, are you kidding me? Is that for the folks out there that think Scholz and Maas are too exciting or extravert? In all seriousness, can I get Garbiel back? The SPD has really managed to downgrade on their male ministers.

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Giffey has been mayor of the Neukölln district of Berlin since 2015, when she succeeded Heinz Buschkowski. It's technically not a particularly important office, but the district's rather problematic demographic makes it rather challenging. Buschkowski broke few taboos by talking about the problems that demographic causes and that made him a celebrity. I don't recall that Giffey herself has accomplished anything remarkable in office, but the office is somewhat special. She is probably a better choice than any of the morons who run Berlin on state level. And she was born in Frankfurt/Oder, so she is East German. Apparently, that was important. The SPD isn't very strong in the east, so finding someone with an East German background wasn't so easy. There's Manuela Schweig, of course, but she only left the federal Government to become prime minister of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern last year.

But who cares? Dorothee Bär will make Germany top in all things digital. 

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Posted (edited)

Haha, yes, Bär wants "air taxis"! Never mind the sorry state of our internet connections...

Speaking of Hubertus Heil, here is a commentary on him: https://www.taz.de/Kommentar-Hubertus-Heil-als-Minister/!5490598/

Wenn die SPD sich aus Angst vor einer Neuwahl schon dazu gezwungen sieht, trotz ihres desolaten Zustands in die Bundesregierung einzutreten – warum überlässt sie dann das „Kernressort für die Sozialdemokratie“ (Andrea Nahles) ausgerechnet Heil? Er steht für das „Weiter so“ einer erodierenden SPD.  (...) Schröders Erbe ist bei Hubertus Heil in sicheren Händen.

ETA: Three of the six SPD ministers are women; however, the three considered important all went to men... Hony soit qui mal y pense and all that...

Edited by Mindwalker

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Well, at least we can now eagerly wait for all the awesome selfies Maas is gonna post form his officials trips around the globe.

*This is Heiko in front of the Statue of Liberty.

*This is Heiko at the UN.

*This is Heiko in front of Trudeau. Not Justin Trudeau. A restaurant somewhere in Ontario named Trudeau.

But the appointment of Heil still leaves me speechless.

So you translated it as Bär's nonsense as Air Taxis. I thought more of Sky Taxis (yes, I had a very Silly Bully Herbig song in mind).

I wouldn't call the Justice Department as unimportant. I can see Barley making something out of it, especially with Drehhofer in charge of the Ministry of Interiror and home improvement. So I think there's a fair chance she can gain some profile by protecting our rights as citizens from overreach by crazy Horst's ideas. And I am fairly sure he will produce some BS there.

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Come to think of it, wasn't Dobrindt supposed to be our "digital minister?" Can't say I noticed much activity there.

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Dobrindt only ever acted to protect our car manufacturers from liability for fraud or to get his ridiculous road tolls. Apart from that, he seems to have ignored his resposibilities as infrastructure minister.

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Merkel has just been re-elected by the Bundestag, albeit with a rather thin majority: 364 votes when 355 were needed and the coalition has 399 seats. Hmm. Not really a grand coalition.

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So Heil will make the SPD great again by getting them good deals? Now that's a plan. But apparently that's what the current generation of politicians think. The SPD got a large chunk of their agenda into the coalition agreement in 2013 so they should have scored a lot of points with the electorate. And then they are baffled when the election results aren't as they think they deserve. That what they pushed through might no really have been what the electorate wanted doesn't seem to occur to them.   

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This is probably either originally Greek or maybe by Schiller or so but there is a saying that if the gods want to destroy someone they first strike them with blindness. This is what happened to the SPD already in the early/mid 2000s.

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It is again one of these points where Juvenal's dictum that it is difficult not to write a satire is proven moot by reality that is worse than any satire could be. The Postillon and others would have had trouble coming up with a more biting joke than reality.

Maybe one should be glad that the puppet masters are now more out in the open, but:

The other stunning point is that most people/commentators do not seem to be bothered at all by this. In the FAZ there was an imbecile commentary by one smart young economics commentator who painstakingly recounted lots of failed predictions (together with the new secretary's immaculate academic resumée) but the mere fact to have a Goldman guy in the government did not seem worth any discussion.

 

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32 minutes ago, Jo498 said:

It is again one of these points where Juvenal's dictum that it is difficult not to write a satire is proven moot by reality that is worse than any satire could be. The Postillon and others would have had trouble coming up with a more biting joke than reality.

They sort of tried. The FAZ is the last paper you should expect to be upset by this, though. 

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