kiko

German politics xth attempt

182 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

On another board I found myself suddenly engaged in a political debate that ended with me and another user scaring a self-declared AfD-voter off the board by meticulously analyzing every part of their official election program, especially harping on the climate change denying, the typical neo-con tax bullshit, the anti-LGBT-stance and the polemic in regards to driving Islam out of public discourse.

In the end she claimed that their website must have gotten hacked and what we analysed is not their real program and that they are totes not standing for all this rubbish...

... gods, is this seriously the times we live in?

Edited by Toth

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Not so fun fact.

As we all know it's federal election season. So those bozos had set up one of their stands on the weekly market, where I do my weekend shopping. They have approached me like 3 times already. And I was very vocal in my dislike for them. Last week, same story.
One of them was approaching me with their leaf-let, and I responded quite loudly, that I am not into Nazis. One of that troup (a woman in her 50s (rough guess on my part) with a greenish skirt (which you would stereotypcally rather associate with the Greens) was quite shocked by that remark. As she tried to engage into a discussion with me by saying, that I couldn't have been serious. Needless to say, I simply ignored her and quitely walked past her.

It might have been fun to point out, that their party leader is Nationalromantiker (courtesy to Gauland for that euphemism) Björn Höcke, and the local branch of that party are basically the braindead political zombie remnants of Schill's posse. But on the other hand, life's too short.

So really the amount of cognitive dissonance is really astounding with this lot. They are a hard right wing political party, who want to push PC into the trash bin, but are totally offended when you call them Nazis. Damn snowflakes.

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Well, that's harmless. I of all persons used to see an ad banner for some hardcore Christian shit about protecting kids from liberals, gays and stuff, and how we've strayed far from the teachings of the lord or something like that (yes, I was simply curious into which rabbit hole I would venture and clicked it). That made me think, that those smart algorithms are probably not that smart afterall. Or they outsmarted me.

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The established parties are really lucky that the AfD has been shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly. Otherwise they would get easily > 15% and I still expect them to get above 10% (no, I am not going to vote for them). People are not as pissed off as in 2015 but many are quite pissed off and tired of Merkel (it is really horrible that we do not have for the chancellor a similar rule as many other countries that one can only be re-elected once) and obviously Schulz is not believable as a real alternative for most of them.

There is really nothing to hope for. Even if we get a surprise, say CDU/CSU 30% (which is unlikely, but the following are all possible), SPD 20%, AfD 15, Linke, FDP, Greens around 9-10% each, it would still be enough for a continuation of the current coalition or a "Jamaica coalition". Since 2005 federal elections have become a farce. This is largely the SPD's fault. They called the early elections in 2005 which backfired and than they went to bed with Merkel twice, although they were completely destroyed in 2009 with their worst result ever (Schulz does still have a chance to "top" that result). So 2013 ANYTHING would have been preferable to a new attempt at that (and they had at least two other options 2013: Either let Merkel try to form a minority government, hope that she fails and there would be new elections or go red-red-green). But they don't care. They don't care about real policy change, about the future, the ecology, they don't care about the bottom quarter or third of society. They only care about there well-compensated positions as "junior partner".

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Posted (edited)

I... I think I had a minor meltdown over there. But one that felt really great.

Well, the AfD-voting woman returned and kept the conversation up, though she kept insisting that the official election program is fake and that her friend who convinced her of the party is right, so I tried to explain as politely as possible that the fucker was simply lying and that all the facts are arrayed against her, which actually seemed to work...

... then came one of the other known AfD voters of the board. One I was already confused about why she kept quiet, given that she's quite vocal about her political believes, living in France, being involved in the Generation Identitaire and being a gushing Putin fangirl as if she's collecting far-right attitudes like other people collect stamps. And of course she ranted about how Merkel is a law-breaking crook and that refugees and EU are responsible for every dent in our living standard (abridged, she actually managed to make that sound like an argument, though it was still bullshit).

Then I think I somewhat exploded. How can anyone in his right mind believe that the minijob and temporary low wage job shit is on freaking refugees?!? And how could anyone in his right mind believe that a party made up of sore neo-conservative hardliners who embody all the economic policies that are wrong with a CDU government turned up to eleven would change that instead of doubling down on it? So I threw that back into her face...

... and suddenly many other users of the board showed up and started to mock the AfD and their latest speech and their policy and everything. I... I should have better things to do with my weekends... but it was kinda fulfilling when some of the underage board members showed up and expressed their worries after having read the AfD election program and how they are the polar opposite of the solutions they seek.

At least something. After having saved some future voters I now just have to convince the Greens to come up with a party program that doesn't look like they are trying to loose. How hard can that be?

Edited by Toth

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45 minutes ago, Toth said:

... then came one of the other known AfD voters of the board. One I was already confused about why she kept quiet, given that she's quite vocal about her political believes, living in France, being involved in the Generation Identitaire and being a gushing Putin fangirl as if she's collecting far-right attitudes like other people collect stamps. And of course she ranted about how Merkel is a law-breaking crook and that refugees and EU are responsible for every dent in our living standard (abridged, she actually managed to make that sound like an argument, though it was still bullshit).

The Putin fangirl thing is hardly surprising in that context. I am not sure whether you know that, but let me venture a wild guess there. Second/third generation German, whose parents settled here in the 90s from the former SU?

A good chunk of AfD voters fit those RT brainwashed conspiracy nuts. The low wage Johnny Foreigner is a point that has been made by non-AfD politicians, too.

53 minutes ago, Toth said:

At least something. After having saved some future voters I now just have to convince the Greens to come up with a party program that doesn't look like they are trying to loose. How hard can that be?

Then again, we've the so called Left with Putin fangirl and Frauke Petry's BFF Sarah Wagenknecht. If they got get rid of her and lil Oskar (der alte Fremdarbeiter), they might be worth a thought. But not in this shape or form. But that's a point I've made before, and that's where supporters of the Left get very tribal and defensive/protective about Wagenknecht (for what reason so ever).

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Heiner Geißler has died aged 87. To me the most interesting conservative in the CDU.

Here is what I quoted of him in an old post on the EU prliament elections.

Geißler joined Attac in 2007 and his reasons show why national seclusion and selfreliance are an impractical path in a globalised world.

In an interview (Die Zeit, Zuender) Geißler called an economical system -

Quote
 

"in which Hedgfonds can work without controll, in which so called vulturefonds can generate huge profits at the expense of highly indebted african countries and the market value of companies is increased, the more employees are made "redundant" on account of rationalisation" in addition as "unsound, immoral and economically wrong."

 

Capitalism is, since it knows "no values besides supply and demand" just as wrong as communism. "The old germman social market economy" coul serve as an example for a compromise, but since the markets are globalised, the nation state cannot offer a solution anymore, in consequence politics needs to be internationlised. The impulses for this must come - instead of a centralism of nation states - from regional, substate levels; since "only they can convey a sense of home, only here people will find themselves represented." However the confidence of the population in the EU as supernational organisation has dropped, since it is exceedingly economy oriented.

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The problem is that Geissler's party (and most of the others) did not do ANYTHING against vulture fonds. Some old men like Geissler might have spoken out against them, but talk is cheap and nothing was done, even after the crisis of 2008.

The crazy thing about this is that  "Capitalism is, since it knows "no values besides supply and demand" just as wrong as communism." was actually a common stance right after the war and is reflected in the early program of the CDU and also in the mainstream (west) German policies until the 70s or even the 80s. But since then basically all parties have proved mostly helpless against the onslaught of neoliberal propaganda and there is only lipservice to both social democratic values and christian social teaching in either party. By now the Greens have also been assimilated. The only real alternative are the Leftists but they are tainted because of there East German pedigree. So people hardly care that the AfD is even worse in there social ideas than the CDU, they just want some non-establishment alternative (rather similar to those who favored Trump) and of course, scapegoating refugees (along with the establishment) does not hurt either...

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3 hours ago, Jo498 said:

The problem is that Geissler's party (and most of the others) did not do ANYTHING against vulture fonds. Some old men like Geissler might have spoken out against them, but talk is cheap and nothing was done, even after the crisis of 2008.

The crazy thing about this is that  "Capitalism is, since it knows "no values besides supply and demand" just as wrong as communism." was actually a common stance right after the war and is reflected in the early program of the CDU and also in the mainstream (west) German policies until the 70s or even the 80s. But since then basically all parties have proved mostly helpless against the onslaught of neoliberal propaganda and there is only lipservice to both social democratic values and christian social teaching in either party. By now the Greens have also been assimilated. The only real alternative are the Leftists but they are tainted because of there East German pedigree. So people hardly care that the AfD is even worse in there social ideas than the CDU, they just want some non-establishment alternative (rather similar to those who favored Trump) and of course, scapegoating refugees (along with the establishment) does not hurt either...

Indeed. Even worse, the AfD's economic policy is neoliberalism on steroids. Only the FDP can even match their privatization zeal.

For all their faults, the Greens in my city managed to stop the planned privatization of our infrastructure a few years ago by calling for a referendum on the issue, which resulted in a clear anti-privatization message. So I still have some hope that their base, at least here where I live, knows that neoliberalism is part of the problem, too. But then, they have proudly put the probably most polarizing left-wing Green in the entire nation on the direct ballot and she's been getting more than 10% all the time, so they're certainly an outlier.

Edited by theguyfromtheVale

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Sure, some local Greens (and others) might still be o.k. But the dominating strain of the Federal Greens is completely open to coalition with the CDU. Heck, if the Greens enter into a coaltion with one of the worst local CDUs, Hessen, who used the foreign names of the SPD's and Green's candidates a few years ago in one of their several openly xenophobic campaigns, I'll put nothing beyong them. They mostly have become the party of those driving 100k EUR hybrid vans to the organic store lecturing the lazy underclass about nutrition and fitness.

It is really difficult. Of course any party should in principle be free to enter any coalition. But the actual situation since more than decade is such that it is impossible to get rid of the current government, at best change the "junior partner" because of the coalition dynamics. And as my toy example above shows, this will be the same this time and probably next time as well. For the this is a huge flaw of how democracy should work, i.e. that it should be reasonably possible to elect a new government....

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14 hours ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

Indeed. Even worse, the AfD's economic policy is neoliberalism on steroids. Only the FDP can even match their privatization zeal.

Does the AfD ever talk about the economy? That neoliberal program may just be leftovers from the Lucke era that they don't care enough about to change.

 

As for coalition arithmetics, the reason why there's no alternative to Merkel is the fragmentation of the left. They would have had a majority in the current Bundestag, but politically it wouldn't have worked. That and the SPD really not being a credible alternative to the Christian Democrats. Can a party that's pro-TTIP credibly campaign on social justice?

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They don't talk about it but it got into their election manifesto. I guess they know talking about it would lose them some votes, so they keep that under the rugs. Consider also that e.g. Alice Weidel seems quite the neoliberal on economic matters.

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Somebody fix that google ad. algorithm. Atm it's offering me an AfD ad.

Deutschland ist schon bunt genug.

But on the brighter side of things, if the French and Brits celebrate their royals and stuff, ze Germans should happily celebrate their soldiers who so bravely fought in the two world wars.

Seriously those guys, if you couldn't laugh at them, you'd probably go crazy.

With regards to Geissler.I have never fully bought into his reinvention as a humanitarian in his later years. Well, it might have been an inteesting alternative timeline, if he had succeeded with coup against Kohl.

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So I've just voted.

In the end my pick was the same party I chose at every election, since I first cast my vote thirty years and eight month ago.

(a little hint - it's not one of those three letter parties.)

Here is the situation pre-election.

I expect the CDU/CSU of Chancelor Merkel  to receive a little over 35 %, the SPD of Martin Schulz well below 25% - probably 22%.

That looks bad after some polls showed the SPD at almost 35% a few weeks after Martin Schulz had declared his candidacy, but I thought any candidate that keeps the SPD above 20% should be considered a success.

I fear the AfD  will become the third strongest party with more than 12% and the  Greens will be sixth with less than 7%.

It's glum day that ways on my expectations.

 

 

Edited by Lykos
better link

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On 16.9.2017 at 9:01 AM, Notone said:

But on the brighter side of things, if the French and Brits celebrate their royals and stuff, ze Germans should happily celebrate their soldiers who so bravely fought in the two world wars.

Those are the cloth and colors the AfD chooses. They could have choosen Freikorps signs without problems. Tells everything there is to know about the AfD. 

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Hum, first projections are in.

Didn't expect Merkel's party to lose that many votes, too. I mean SPD was to be expected.

For our non-German speaking readers, the results.

CDU/CSU (conservatives/Merkel's party) 32.7% (-8.8%)

SPD (Social Democrats) 20.2% (-5.5%)

The [so called] Left 8.9% (+0.3%)

Green Party 9.4% (+1%)

AfD (Germany'snew Neo Fascist BS party) 13.4% (+8.7%) (why is there no puke smiley in this forum?)

FDP (Liberal Party [economic Liberal, small state lower taxes, eat the poor yuppies] 10.5% (+5.7%)

Well, as shitty as expected I guess. Well, not ok, I didn't think Merkel's party would drop  9%. And I had hoped AfD wouldn't get more than 11%, I had some hopes those lower tax windbags would at least be below 10%.

On the bright side 9.4% would be better than expected. And that the CSU has hit a new low, is also something I truely enjoy.

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As a Bavarian Green voter, I'll just echo your sentiment, Notone. It's about as bad as expected and feels a bit like the French Election with both major parties cratering, even if it's not quite as extreme a change as in France.

At the very least, Union/FDP doesn't seem to work on its own. I don't know why anyone voted for the FDP after how bad they were just five yours ago, but well at least we're not going to see a perfect carbon copy of those years again.

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22 minutes ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

As a Bavarian Green voter, I'll just echo your sentiment, Notone. It's about as bad as expected and feels a bit like the French Election with both major parties cratering, even if it's not quite as extreme a change as in France.

At the very least, Union/FDP doesn't seem to work on its own. I don't know why anyone voted for the FDP after how bad they were just five yours ago, but well at least we're not going to see a perfect carbon copy of those years again.

I'm confused about the revival of the FDP as well. Granted, I thought their slogans and posters worryingly good whenever I happened to see them (well, apart from that whole "looking dramatic in sepia" thing, though I guess even that has a certain attraction to some people).

I guess it's another proof of voters both having the attention span of goldfish and nobody ever reading election programs, because in that regard the FDP hasn't changed at all with their privatization frenzy and climate change denying.

In regards to the AfD... to be frank, of course it is bad, but it could have been far worse. A teacher collegue for political science had made the pessimistic prediction that they are going to hit the 15% mark a year ago, but since they've spent most of the time since then constantly self-destructing, they obviously scared a sizable chunk of their crowd back to the FDP.

Though I find it somewhat disturbing that there seems to be barely any media backlash of Gaulands "We will hunt them down" comment, in another forum a shiver full of Weimar flashbacks went through all the users...

Edited by Toth

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Yeah, Gauland's dogwhistle of political violence scared me, too.

I'm hoping for a Union minority government, to be honest. I want the CDU to be unable to shift the blame for their shitty policies to their junior parties. "Jamaica" isn't the worst of all worlds, I guess, as I hope the Greens can serve as a counterweight to the FDP bullshit, but I also know very well that they'll be the smallest partner in such an arrangement and won't be able to dominate the policy discussion.

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