The second dance of dragons ?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Migraines are ugly. I had a few of those in recent months, including all those stupid auras were you can't read or type properly. But thankfully they don't seem to be returning.

He certainly could. But as I've said in another post directed at @Free Northman Reborn I don't see any good reason why the hell a riderless dragon should have flown to Skagos of all places? Why not to Driftmark, Crackclaw Point, Tarth, Estermont, or Massey's Hook? Why not to the Crownlands or King's Landing itself? If he left Dragonstone he would have presumably done so to feed elsewhere.

As a very large dragon he is a top predator. He would have no reason to try to hide himself from humans. And if he did not hide he would have been seen. By many people.

He surely could have ended up on Skagos eventually. But I see no reason why he should have gone up there directly. A rider could have taken him up there in such a fashion. But as far as we know he never had a rider.

I'd assume that obsidian is prevalent in the lands beyond the Wall irregardless of recent volcanic activity. There is no hint that there are any volcanoes either on Skagos or beyond the Wall yet the Children still had an ample supply of obsidian weapons.

See above.

The idea is that if the Cannibal had arrived there he would have been seen by the Skagosi and tales and rumors would have spread that the Starks and Northmen would have then heard when they invaded the island during the rebellion. If the Cannibal would be still alive on Skagos he would have eventually gone into some sort stasis, too, but prior to that he would have fed on beast and men alike. The Cannibal actually seems to be eating men on a regular basis.

Well, one assumes they will grow in size quickly but, yeah, a battle between these three and the Cannibal could become pretty dangerous.

That is also a reason why I think the Cannibal should resurface on Dragonstone rather than Skagos. On Dragonstone there could be people to claim him at this point in the story (Aegon, Euron, possibly even Arianne or Varys) while him being on Skagos would complicate things in that regard.

And thinking about Dragonstone - if the guys down in the South eventually learn about the threat of the Others (Aegon certainly could receive letters from the Wall and actually read them) - then securing Dragonstone and shipping obsidian to the Night's Watch might become an important issue. With Pycelle being dead we'll also get a new Grand Maester sooner or later (assuming Haldon is not going to fill that spot for the time being after Aegon takes the throne) and that man could be more inclined to believe in stuff than Pycelle was.

Good points, all.  But there's no knowing why a riderless dragon would choose to go anywhere in particular. And I didn't mean to suggest that he went straight to Skagos necessarily, but that he might have ended up there.

Being a top predator doesn't mean you don't hide, it just means you don't do so out of fear. Some creatures are more solitary than others.

I'll only add that all mountains were once volcanos, so yeah there are at least dead/dormant volcanos on Skagos which is described as mountainous. The Frostfrangs are the most likely source of obsidian north of the Wall. Dragonstone of course also would be well supplied with obsidian. 

Your best point is definitely that on Dragonstone he's more likely to be claimed. That's entirely correct.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

7 hours ago, Blueroses said:

 

<snip

Any new dragon hatching would be nice, specially by the end or it's related to a major event but as already stated, wouldn't be relevant for the "second dance", and as far as the dragon hatching in sack of Winterfell, I can't see how a dragon could go completely unnoticed for so long.

Depends on where it went afterwards. There are examples in the books of people claiming to have seen things that can't possibly be true (like the rumor that Rhaegar was on Dragonstone marshalling forces to retake Westeros) so anyone talking about a dragon would have just been lumped in with all the other crazy rumors.

A dragon could conceivably survive for a long time undetected if it were to stay underground. If there are tunnels from Beyond the Wall to under Winterfell, a dragon could travel to get food. The size wouldn't be an issue because their growth is restricted if they are confined and not allowed to feed at will. So any Winterfellian dragon, of any age, could have lived under Winterfell for a long time without anyone realizing it. The only people to see it would be Wildlings who ended up being lunch, so there would be no surviving witnesses. But...Bloodraven should know about it, and he hasn't said a thing. Granted Bran's training might need to take precedence if they're going to save the world and any dragons in it.

If anything hatched during the sack of Winterfell, Bran will be able to let us know at some point.

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Good points, all.  But there's no knowing why a riderless dragon would choose to go anywhere in particular. And I didn't mean to suggest that he went straight to Skagos necessarily, but that he might have ended up there.

Yeah, but then we wouldn't have gotten this 'disappeared at the end of the Dance' line we got in TWoIaF. He would have been more like Silverwing who also grew wild and set herself up in Red Lake. Dragons don't seem to be doing all that much migrating on their own, making it very unlikely that the Cannibal would have left Dragonstone to the far end of the world.

18 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Being a top predator doesn't mean you don't hide, it just means you don't do so out of fear. Some creatures are more solitary than others.

That is true but we do know that the Cannibal wasn't exactly a solitary animal. His lair was well-known but the would-be dragonriders couldn't find the place where Grey Ghost was hiding. Now, had he disappeared I'd at once admit that he could have gone to some other place unseen (not Skagos, though, due to the immense distance) but with the Cannibal it is less likely.

18 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I'll only add that all mountains were once volcanos, so yeah there are at least dead/dormant volcanos on Skagos which is described as mountainous.

No, not all mountains were once volcanoes. Not even all volcanoes have to be mountains:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orogeny

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano

If there is obsidian to be found on Skagos (and they did not get a lot of that stuff back when they had more dealings with the Children of the Forest) it could easily enough be from some long extinct volcanoes. The obsidian isn't going anywhere, after all.

But I don't discount the possibility that there might be some volcanoes on Skagos or in the Frostfangs. And perhaps even around/near the Vale of Thenn which might actually be supervolcano explaining why it is so warm up there.

It is odd, however, that there are no known volcanoes in the Seven Kingdoms aside from the Dragonmount on Dragonstone. That would have made it rather difficult for the Children to get all their obsidian. Perhaps there are some in the Rainwood or the Westerlands we have as of yet no clue about.

18 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Your best point is definitely that on Dragonstone he's more likely to be claimed. That's entirely correct.

I guess the Cannibal could also be interesting if he just runs amok. But up on Skagos that wouldn't be cause all that much damage. I was surprised that Dragonstone was a place that featured so prominently in the past of Westeros (favorite place of the Conqueror, place of death for Aegon I, Aenys I, and Rhaenyra; a major place of action during the Dance; actual seat of at least three Princes of Dragonstone in the history of Westeros, etc.).

Some people would say that this suggests it is going to become an important place in the series, too. I'm not so sure about that since the series covers a different political reality. But it is still not unlikely that quite a few people are going to visit Dragonstone again in the future.

If Euron were to make a move against KL he might first take possession of Dragonstone to have a base in the area. Dany would take possession of her birthplace, too, although she certainly would not settle there for long if she has a large armada at her disposal. Aegon should also take possession of his father's seat after he has taken the Iron Throne. Perhaps even before that if he happens to get some ships. Storm's End has a harbor, after all.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Lord Varys

Most of your lines of argument are based on an assumption that cannot be confirmed, namely that Cannibal is just a run of the mill dragon, operating on wild instinct. That is by no means certain. Given the anomalies associated with him, he could be a very unique dragon.

One can construct endless scenarios explaining his fate, and all of them are equally possible. He could be far more intelligent and self aware than other dragons, he could have been migrating between Dragonstone and Skagos for centuries or millenia, an ancient Valyrian sorceror could have settled on Dragonstone and conducted magical experiments on him, resulting in his anomalous characteristics. An ancient Dragonhorn could have been discovered and used on Skagos, to draw him directly there without visiting intervening lands as a wild dragon would do. 

Leaf could have visited him and conducted some ritual to draw him North, in her 200 years of wandering the Seven Kingdoms. He could have been a descendant of a survivor from the 300 Dragons that ended the Rhoynish wars, and settled on Dragonstone. The list goes on and on.

The point is, we cannot discount anything yet, because we have insufficient information. So theories discarding certain options are not based in fact, but on wishful thinking, and a bias towards wanting the plot to go in a certain direction.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Most of your lines of argument are based on an assumption that cannot be confirmed, namely that Cannibal is just a run of the mill dragon, operating on wild instinct. That is by no means certain. Given the anomalies associated with him, he could be a very unique dragon.

You cannot take one 'anomaly' (his cannibalistic diet) and then use that as basis for an argument that he must have other special abilities, too. George has made it quite clear - even in my presence - that his dragons are just animals. They can't talk. Smaug can talk which means - according to him - that he is more powerful than Balerion.

And even if the Cannibal was a very old dragon (if this is not sufficiently explained by his cannibalistic diet) then this isn't enough evidence to make a super special dragon. Even if we go with Balerion dying at about 200 years, give or take, 'of old age' then we still don't know whether he died of very old age (say, the equivalent of a human dying at 100-110 years) or whether he was in his 50s or 60s. People can die of old age in that age, too.

The special feature that's confirmed for the Cannibal is cannibalism. And that doesn't mean he is smarter than your average dragon or has some kind of dragon sense that directs him to Skagos.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

One can construct endless scenarios explaining his fate, and all of them are equally possible.

No, they are not. You can come up with a lot scenarios but they are not all equally likely. Some are more likely than others. This is true for events in reality as well as in Westeros (or unfinished fiction in general). Take Jon's parentage as an example. It is very likely that a version of the Rhaegar-Lyanna scenario is true. It is very unlikely that fishermen's daughter, the Ashara, or the Wylla scenario are true.

The same would go for some unclear parentage in our world. The likeliest candidates in such a scenario include the people the mother could actually have had sex with. The idea that some evil scientist impregnated her against her will in her sleep is not very likely.

Or how likely is it that Qyburn invents some primitive moon rocket in the next book? He is a sorcerer and a scientist, so he presumably could do such a thing. But why should he? And why should write George introduce such a plot?

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

He could be far more intelligent and self aware than other dragons, he could have been migrating between Dragonstone and Skagos for centuries or millenia, an ancient Valyrian sorceror could have settled on Dragonstone and conducted magical experiments on him, resulting in his anomalous characteristics. An ancient Dragonhorn could have been discovered and used on Skagos, to draw him directly there without visiting intervening lands as a wild dragon would do.

Yeah, right, and Rennifer Longwaters could actually be an Other in disguise. The fact that something is (technically) possible does not make it likely or plausible. We have no reason to even entertain such ideas as you suggest above. If the Cannibal actually turned up on Skagos I'd expect George to come up with a good explanation for that (and, honestly, nothing you suggests sounds convincing to me).

If he wanted a dragon on Skagos he has no need to put the Cannibal there. He could take the stasis idea and use it one of the dragons that supposedly once lived in Westeros. That would be much easier and much more believable.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

He could have been a descendant of a survivor from the 300 Dragons that ended the Rhoynish wars, and settled on Dragonstone.

How would that explain that he went to Skagos? And why would the Valyrians have allowed any of their 300 dragons crushing the Rhoynar to leave Essos to go to Dragonstone? 

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The point is, we cannot discount anything yet, because we have insufficient information. So theories discarding certain options are not based in fact, but on wishful thinking, and a bias towards wanting the plot to go in a certain direction.

No, there aren't. It is actually completely the opposite.

I've tried to explain this to you in the past. Sure, like everybody else I've got characters, plots, and scenarios I like and stuff I don't like, but when I discuss this series I go by likelihood. I read the books and extrapolate to the best of my abilities from George what the future books might have in store for us, also drawing on knowledge from George to make good guesses. I don't go by character or plot preference.

When I first proposed the idea that the Cannibal might yet lived I looked at the facts (his fate is unknown/he disappeared) compared that with stuff we know from George (deaths have to be confirmed in this series; the fact that a character like Bloodraven from TMK showed up in the main series) and then spun a scenario how I could imagine he might turn up in the main series.

I try to do this by adding as little additional assumptions on top of the mystery that has to be resolved. That is the proper way to deal with such questions.

The way I think the story will continue has actually little to do with how I want the story to continue. As everybody else I want my favorites to win/survive and the evil guys (I don't like) to die horrible deaths. But I'm also aware that this is most likely not going to make a good. For instance, I really don't want Shireen to die. I liked her in the books, and I liked even more in the show, but I'm very aware that Stannis sacrificing his only child to conduct a powerful spell would be very powerful scene which is why I (as a reader who wants to read the best and most powerful scenes in those books) would actually prefer to read that scene even if I also hate reading it at the same time.

I also did not want Jon Snow to die, of course. But now that he is dead I want him to feel what it means to be dead and trapped inside the body of a wolf. Not to mention live through the agony of what 'bodily resurrection' magic can offer him in this world. This is not a series that likes to push boundaries. The Red Wedding was pretty ghastly. I thought Jon would continue to walk down the path of a more classical hero. But we have no reason to believe that a man that is killed and comes back from the dead, one way or another, can do that in this series. George does not like Gandalf the White. Thus I prepare myself for Jon going down a much more darker (and madder) path.

And so on.

[RumHam]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The special feature that's confirmed for the Cannibal is cannibalism.

In the sense that he seems to prefer to kill and eat other dragons, yeah. But I seem to remember Sunfyre ate Moondancer.

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, RumHam said:

In the sense that he seems to prefer to kill and eat other dragons, yeah. But I seem to remember Sunfyre ate Moondancer.

I forgot to mention that. Didn't he also at least partially devour Grey Ghost?

And honestly, I'm not holding my breath all that much for the return of the Cannibal. I'd find the idea interesting because it would give us real dragon fight apocalypse thing resembling of the First Dance. But then, if we consider George's humor then neither Dany nor Aegon (if he gets a dragon) are likely going to actually face each other on dragonback if they clash politically.

However, in general I find the idea that Aegon might have dragon eggs that are going to hatch intriguing because they could be seen as a divine sign that he is the savior and the true king despite the fact that he isn't. They don't have to be used as weapons to be important in the plot - not to mention that it would be a nice twist if he could become a dragonrider if he just had another year/month left for his dragon to grow...

[RumHam]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I forgot to mention that. Didn't he also at least partially devour Grey Ghost?

And honestly, I'm not holding my breath all that much for the return of the Cannibal. I'd find the idea interesting because it would give us real dragon fight apocalypse thing resembling of the First Dance. But then, if we consider George's humor then neither Dany nor Aegon (if he gets a dragon) are likely going to actually face each other on dragonback if they clash politically.

However, in general I find the idea that Aegon might have dragon eggs that are going to hatch intriguing because they could be seen as a divine sign that he is the savior and the true king despite the fact that he isn't. They don't have to be used as weapons to be important in the plot - not to mention that it would be a nice twist if he could become a dragonrider if he just had another year/month left for his dragon to grow...

I think you're right about Grey Ghost being partially devoured. 

Personally the only way I could see Cannibal returning in the main series is if he's going to be a wighted dragon who flew too far north and died in the Lands of Always Winter. I don't see why he would be drawn north though.

[Lord Varys]

22 minutes ago, RumHam said:

I think you're right about Grey Ghost being partially devoured. 

Personally the only way I could see Cannibal returning in the main series is if he's going to be a wighted dragon who flew too far north and died in the Lands of Always Winter. I don't see why he would be drawn north though.

I guess we might be wighted dragons but those don't have to be the Cannibal. There might have been dragons all over Westeros in the ancient days and some of them might have been killed by the Others during the Long Night. If so, they might still have their animated corpses as their thralls.

As I've said already, I see little reason why the hell the Cannibal would have flown north/beyond the Wall. If he had had a rider that would have been a possibility (I also thought Nettles might have flown beyond the Wall before we learned that she did not) but with him remaining riderless until his disappearance this would simply be pretty odd.

And if somebody had claimed the Cannibal after all one wonders why that person didn't reveal herself to the world. A dragon is power, and the Cannibal would have been (at least at that point) the most powerful dragon of all.

[RumHam]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess we might be wighted dragons but those don't have to be the Cannibal. There might have been dragons all over Westeros in the ancient days and some of them might have been killed by the Others during the Long Night. If so, they might still have their animated corpses as their thralls.

As I've said already, I see little reason why the hell the Cannibal would have flown north/beyond the Wall. If he had had a rider that would have been a possibility (I also thought Nettles might have flown beyond the Wall before we learned that she did not) but with him remaining riderless until his disappearance this would simply be pretty odd.

And if somebody had claimed the Cannibal after all one wonders why that person didn't reveal herself to the world. A dragon is power, and the Cannibal would have been (at least at that point) the most powerful dragon of all.

Maybe there's a chance we'll read more about The Cannibal in Fire and Blood? Could the Targaryens have kept it's fate a secret for some reason? I can't imagine why they would. 

I'm just now thinking, maybe Cannibal was the Maester's test subject for their dragon poison? (or whatever methods they used) We know there was a movement on Dragonstone to destroy the Cannibal, but that Robert Quince instead commanded the fishermen to stay away from the area. Maybe agents of the Citadel left a series of poisoned meals for him or something as an experiment to determine what would kill a dragon? Could this be one of the secrets contained only in Blood and Fire/The Death of Dragons that only exists in a locked vault in the citadel? Probably not. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

To be clear. I don't hold the Cannibal reappearance theory as highly probable. It is a possibility, nothing more. But I think whether he reappears or not, there is a possibility that he is from a different lineage than the other Targaryen dragons. And a source for his lineage could easily be an egg left by previous Valyrian visitors to Dragonstone, or one of the 300 Rhoynish war dragons whose rider got killed in the battle and the dragon flew off to dragonstone in the ensuing chaos, or a totally unique wild dragon lineage that lay undiscovered just like the Valyrian dragons were undiscovered until 5000 years ago. There are many options that could work.

In any case, Lord Varys, you seem interested in this topic more for the sake of dragon survival in the long term, with talk of Aegon hatching more eggs, Dany's dragons laying more eggs or eggs in Winterfell's crypts. Frankly, that is nice from an academic point of view, but pretty pointless in terms of impact on this series. I doubt Martin will be writing any future stories in this world when he finishes the main books eventually,  in 15 years time or so.

Also, I don't know if dragons are going to survive this series, but that is another issue altogether. 

As for Skagos, well, I think if Martin wants him there for plot reasons, he will find a justification for it. Would you have considered the Wex Pyke story as a convincing option before George wrote it? I'm sure not.

[rotting sea cow]

^ Indeed, dragons will likely disappear from the world but they won't be necessarily killed. If there is a book after the final conflict it will contain prophesies about the return of the dragons, maybe people will claim seen them for many years after, others will talk about eggs left behind, etc.

Frankly, the whole discussion whether Cannibal went to Skagos or not, it's pretty pointless. If Cannibal has no role to play in the forthcoming stories, it may have gone anywhere (including Skagos) and it doesn't matter. The interesting part is his disappearance without confirmation of his death (see above). If Cannibal is going to reappear he needs to be where is going to be part of the story. This place is most likely Dragonstone.

I don't hold my breath either seeing Cannibal returned, but something needs to fill the prophesies (HOTU, Moqorro, etc). A "petrified" dragon is an option, but other possibilities exists.

 

[rotting sea cow]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is odd, however, that there are no known volcanoes in the Seven Kingdoms aside from the Dragonmount on Dragonstone. That would have made it rather difficult for the Children to get all their obsidian. Perhaps there are some in the Rainwood or the Westerlands we have as of yet no clue about.

Planetos doesn't need to be geologically correct. As far as I can remember there is no mention of earthquakes in Westeros either. In our world there are also large areas with few volcanoes. Brazil for example, even in Africa volcanoes are concentrated in a small strip.  Of course the issue of the obsidian is a valid one, but if as I remember from some readings even primitive cultures traveled very long distances to obtain it.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Just now, rotting sea cow said:

Planetos doesn't need to be geologically correct. As far as I can remember there is no mention of earthquakes in Westeros either. In our world there are also large areas with few volcanoes. Brazil for example, even in Africa volcanoes are concentrated in a small strip.  Of course the issue of the obsidian is a valid one, but if as I remember from some readings even primitive cultures traveled very long distances to obtain it.

Whatever happened at Hardhome back in the day sounded like a volcanic eruption. Ashes rained down on the area for half a year afterward. Although it isn't described as any sort of mountain or volcano, maybe the greenseers in the weirnet have the power to cause volcanic eruptions (and create obsidian as a by-product). This would be very similar to the power to cause earthquakes, if indeed they have this ability.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Whatever happened at Hardhome back in the day sounded like a volcanic eruption. Ashes rained down on the area for half a year afterward. Although it isn't described as any sort of mountain or volcano, maybe the greenseers in the weirnet have the power to cause volcanic eruptions (and create obsidian as a by-product). This would be very similar to the power to cause earthquakes, if indeed they have this ability.

How about Hardhome being Cannibal's original home, before the volcanic eruption forced him to seek a new volcanic lair. Maybe he stopped at nearby Skagos, assuming it contains a volcano as theorized, and stayed there for a few centuries before migrating to Dragonstone in the years before the Targaryen arrival.

Then, after the Dance, something caused him to depart Dragonstone, perhaps to return to his original lair in Skagos.

A theory like that is something I would deem sufficiently coherent to make sense.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

How about Hardhome being Cannibal's original home, before the volcanic eruption forced him to seek a new volcanic lair. Maybe he stopped at nearby Skagos, assuming it contains a volcano as theorized, and stayed there for a few centuries before migrating to Dragonstone in the years before the Targaryen arrival.

Then, after the Dance, something caused him to depart Dragonstone, perhaps to return to his original lair in Skagos.

A theory like that is something I would deem sufficiently coherent to make sense.

I agree that makes sense and is coherent, but I don't think that there is enough evidence to consider it more likely than any number of alternative theories. As for his "original home", I always assumed that even "wild dragons" were hatched by humans with Valyrian blood. Targaryens have a tradition of giving eggs to babies in the cradle for some reason. It makes me think that every time a dragon rider gives birth, a dragon lays an egg (or something like that) and that a human with the right drop of blood is necessary to hatch that egg. I don't think it's likely a dragon could actually be born wild with no human involvement. So while Cannibal could have done all the things you said there, I personally think he was originally hatched by humans at some point before being a wild dragon.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, RumHam said:

Maybe there's a chance we'll read more about The Cannibal in Fire and Blood? Could the Targaryens have kept it's fate a secret for some reason? I can't imagine why they would. 

We should get Morning's full story. Ran and Linda asked George what happened to her later on but he didn't answer them. That means she lived through the Regency, and we do know that Rhaena and Baela were featured in that story quite a bit which means that Morning must have been there, too (although she might not have impacted the story all that much.

Silverwing might have been killed during the Regency. Ran once said that she had a story of her own, suggesting that he might know that already. Or not.

But the Cannibal is just a mystery. Nothing disappears without a trace, and Aegon II (who controlled Dragonstore after he took the citadel, presumably until his death) would have had no interest whatsoever to kill that dragon. Nor is it likely he had people under his nose who would try such a thing.

9 hours ago, RumHam said:

I'm just now thinking, maybe Cannibal was the Maester's test subject for their dragon poison? (or whatever methods they used) We know there was a movement on Dragonstone to destroy the Cannibal, but that Robert Quince instead commanded the fishermen to stay away from the area. Maybe agents of the Citadel left a series of poisoned meals for him or something as an experiment to determine what would kill a dragon? Could this be one of the secrets contained only in Blood and Fire/The Death of Dragons that only exists in a locked vault in the citadel? Probably not. 

I expect that Munkun had his people work on dragon eggs and hatchlings during the Regency, assuming there was much research to be done (Morning could have been a good subject for that - either at court or at Oldtown, if Rhaena eventually moved there with her second husband, Garmund Hightower). People actually may have known how to kill/poison a dragon. The idea that people would have experimented on a beast as dangerous and deadly as the Cannibal doesn't seem very likely to me. Especially since they would have lacked the infrastructure to do something of that sort on Dragonstone of all places.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

To be clear. I don't hold the Cannibal reappearance theory as highly probable. It is a possibility, nothing more. But I think whether he reappears or not, there is a possibility that he is from a different lineage than the other Targaryen dragons.

A small possibility, yes. But we actually don't know whether that's relevant or not. It is a nice theory to assume that the various dragonlord families permanently bonded with a particular dragon bloodline but as of yet there is no evidence for that. Perhaps having dragon blood means you can bond with any dragon and actually bond with and steal a dragon from a rival dragonlord family? We don't know that as of yet.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And a source for his lineage could easily be an egg left by previous Valyrian visitors to Dragonstone, or one of the 300 Rhoynish war dragons whose rider got killed in the battle and the dragon flew off to dragonstone in the ensuing chaos, or a totally unique wild dragon lineage that lay undiscovered just like the Valyrian dragons were undiscovered until 5000 years ago. There are many options that could work.

There actually was no ensuing chaos during the destruction of the Rhoynar. At least not on the side of the Valyrians. They simply crushed all resistance. Some confusion may have broken out after Garin's Curse struck them but that was much later. We don't even know whether all the 300 dragonlords and their mounts stayed to witness the final triumph over the Rhoynar.

The idea that some dragon just survived on Dragonstone sounds too much like Nessie for my taste. We know that the only evidence there once were dragons in Westeros are fossil remains. Not some hidden dragon population. And with no other dragons around the Cannibal could not have possibly extended his lifespan via dragon cannibalism.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In any case, Lord Varys, you seem interested in this topic more for the sake of dragon survival in the long term, with talk of Aegon hatching more eggs, Dany's dragons laying more eggs or eggs in Winterfell's crypts. Frankly, that is nice from an academic point of view, but pretty pointless in terms of impact on this series. I doubt Martin will be writing any future stories in this world when he finishes the main books eventually,  in 15 years time or so.

Actually, no. I'm talking about dragons hatching as a plot element in the series before it ends. If Aegon got any dragon eggs in those chests they could hatch in the next book. Both he and Arianne (who has Targaryen blood) could bond with such hatchlings. Whether they become dragonriders or not is irrelevant. Them having dragons could be an important propaganda tool helping Aegon to establish his kingship.

Dragon eggs found at Winterfell could provide Jon with a dragon (especially if a dragon actually hatched during the burning of Winterfell) or give Stannis a reason to burn Shireen (to hatch such an egg and get a dragon to fight the Others). Dany's dragons mating was also always entailed in the story. Granted, some additional hatchlings would not necessarily be claimed all that soon, but so what? Dany might have children of her own at a later point in the story. And Aegon might impregnate Arianne - and a child from that union could easily enough survive the series. In fact, if Dany ends up being barren after all such a child could be recognized as her heir.

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for Skagos, well, I think if Martin wants him there for plot reasons, he will find a justification for it. Would you have considered the Wex Pyke story as a convincing option before George wrote it? I'm sure not.

I did not foresee the Wex Pyke thing but I was not surprised that he survived and returned to the story.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

How about Hardhome being Cannibal's original home, before the volcanic eruption forced him to seek a new volcanic lair. Maybe he stopped at nearby Skagos, assuming it contains a volcano as theorized, and stayed there for a few centuries before migrating to Dragonstone in the years before the Targaryen arrival.

Then, after the Dance, something caused him to depart Dragonstone, perhaps to return to his original lair in Skagos.

A theory like that is something I would deem sufficiently coherent to make sense.

Not really. We have no reason that there ever were any dragons in the Hardhome region, and a dragon coming from there wouldn't have just settled on Skagos, he would have been seen on many other places on his way from up north down south.

And if there is a volcano near/at Hardhome why didn't the Cannibal return to that place?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

<snip

No, not all mountains were once volcanoes. Not even all volcanoes have to be mountains:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orogeny

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano

If there is obsidian to be found on Skagos (and they did not get a lot of that stuff back when they had more dealings with the Children of the Forest) it could easily enough be from some long extinct volcanoes. The obsidian isn't going anywhere, after all.

<snip

Thank you for the links. I love learning new things, or rather old things that I didn't know.

Yes. I just figure the newer the obisidian is, the more likely the inhabitants of the area will be finding and trading it. And I figure that the more recently any possible volcanos have been active, the more likely there might still be an element of active magic to them, thus more likely to support the magical stasis you have theorized for Cannibal.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

7 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I agree that makes sense and is coherent, but I don't think that there is enough evidence to consider it more likely than any number of alternative theories. As for his "original home", I always assumed that even "wild dragons" were hatched by humans with Valyrian blood. Targaryens have a tradition of giving eggs to babies in the cradle for some reason. It makes me think that every time a dragon rider gives birth, a dragon lays an egg (or something like that) and that a human with the right drop of blood is necessary to hatch that egg. I don't think it's likely a dragon could actually be born wild with no human involvement. So while Cannibal could have done all the things you said there, I personally think he was originally hatched by humans at some point before being a wild dragon.

I must disagree with this idea. If they were hatched by humans, presumably they would have a human to whom they were bonded. And a dragon once bonded can bond with another human, just as a skinchangers bond animal can be more easily "worn" or claimed by another skinchanger than a wild animal can.

The entire reason the Targs gave their babies dragon eggs was in the hopes that when hatched the dragon would immediately imprint with the human to whom the egg belonged. It's a standard animal-human bonding technique that's used quite commonly in training horses, among other animals.

GRRM says wild dragons were once everywhere. While I could go with the idea that the very first dragons might have been created through some strange blood and fire magic, it's unlikely that the dragons could have increased so much as to live all over Planetos if they could only hatch through human means.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

8 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I must disagree with this idea. If they were hatched by humans, presumably they would have a human to whom they were bonded. And a dragon once bonded can bond with another human, just as a skinchangers bond animal can be more easily "worn" or claimed by another skinchanger than a wild animal can.

The entire reason the Targs gave their babies dragon eggs was in the hopes that when hatched the dragon would immediately imprint with the human to whom the egg belonged. It's a standard animal-human bonding technique that's used quite commonly in training horses, among other animals.

GRRM says wild dragons were once everywhere. While I could go with the idea that the very first dragons might have been created through some strange blood and fire magic, it's unlikely that the dragons could have increased so much as to live all over Planetos if they could only hatch through human means.

I think your idea that they hoped the cradle egg would bond with the person in said cradle is at least partially correct, but we can't say for sure that it was the entire reason they placed eggs in the cradle as you stated. The tradition of placing eggs in the cradle could have served a dual purpose of both hatching eggs, and bonding the dragon to the infant. And just because no one ever bonded with Cannibal that we know of doesn't mean it's impossible. We don't know if Cannibal had a rider at some point or not.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think GRRM ever said that "wild" dragons were everywhere. He said in an SSM from 1999 that "There were dragons all over, once." He never said those dragons weren't ridden by people. And you say it's unlikely they could have increased so much to live all over Planetos if they were limited to hatching via humans, but since dragons can fly, I could easily see some relatively small number of dragons (like less than a thousand) flying to places all over the world, especially if they were ridden by humans.