"Lyra and Jory are with our mother," and The Great Northern Conspiracy

[aryagonnakill#2]

I believe that Mance working with Mors Umber can be ruled out based on his interaction with Theon.  Theon is terrified and Mance is trying to convince him to act the way he wants, which is to help them escape WF.

When they hear the horns they believe Stannis has arrived, Mance says as much to Theon.  This means that all they really have to do is get outside the walls and they can make it to Stannis and be safe.  Before "Stannis" shows up, if they had escaped WF they would have simply been ridden down.  This explains their reaction to the horns, without having to complicate it.

What I believe rules out Mance working with Mors Umber is that Mance doesn't simply tell Theon this.  "Hey this was our plan all along they know we are in here trying to escape and will come get us with horses as soon as we get over the walls"  is a lot more convincing than "Stannis sounds close".

[Clegane'sPup]

On 2/10/2017 at 2:48 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

After about three days of considering the Great Northern Conspiracy, I added this to the OP...

Also about two years ago, I suggested this about the wrongway rangers...

 

On 2/10/2017 at 2:48 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

And last year, I asked what Mance and Melisandre were up to when Melisandre convinced Jon to send Mance after Arya...

Thumbs up for spending the time and taking the effort to try to bring this all together.

 

Stannis says two things after he received Lyanna’s refusal

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon I

"Two score ravens were sent out," the king complained, "yet we get no response but silence and defiance.

Arnolf Karstark <snip> had been the first to respond to King Stannis's call for homage, with a raven declaring his allegiance.

 

The wrongway rangers, Massey & Thorpe left CB during DwD Jon II. They returned in Jon IV. Personally I think Karhold is too great a distance for Massey &Thorpe to have had traveled. Tomato Tamato. I do think they did visit Last Hearth.

When M & T returned to CB is when the strange council meeting takes place. By strange I mean the attendees.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jon IV   Stannis and his captains were gathered over the map of the north. The wrong-way rangers were amongst them. Sigorn was there as well, the young Magnar of Thenn, clad in a leather hauberk sewn with bronze scales. Rattleshirt sat scratching at the manacle on his wrist with a cracked yellow fingernail. Brown stubble covered his sunken cheeks and receding chin, and strands of dirty hair hung across his eyes. "Here he comes," he said when he saw Jon, "the brave boy who slew Mance Rayder when he was caged and bound." The big square-cut gem that adorned his iron cuff glimmered redly. "Do you like my ruby, Snow? A token o' love from Lady Red."

<snip> "Leave me. All of you. Lord Snow, remain." <snip> The last man to take his leave was Rattleshirt. At the door, he gave Jon a mocking bow, grinning through a mouthful of brown and broken teeth. All of you did not seem to include Lady Melisandre. The king's red shadow.

When I look too closely at these novels I find many problems. A few are: Mors wants Mance’s skull. I guess that means if Mance stopped by Last Hearth on his way to find the girl, Mors wasn’t home or Mors doesn’t know what Mance looks like. Another is Manderly tells Davos that he [Manderly] has a wedding to attend at WF. The Bolton letters said the lords were to come to Barrowton.

Mance shows up at WF after the Bolton party arrived. Remember Mance had requested six young & pretty spearwives.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jon VII    A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north. "Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole's Town.

 

According to Theon

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A Dance with Dragons - The Prince of Winterfell    Lord Manderly had brought musicians from White Harbor, but none were singers, so when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, he had been made welcome. "Two sisters, two daughters, one wife, and my old mother," the singer claimed, though not one looked like him. "Some dance, some sing, one plays the pipe and one the drums. Good washerwomen too."

Rowan might well be an Umber, one of GreatJon’s unnamed daughters.

Mance left CB before LC Snow received Stannis’ letter from DW or did he? Mance was not present when Jon told Stannis to take DW, but Mel was present.

 

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - Jon VII    Stannis had taken Deepwood Motte, and the mountain clans had joined him. Flint, Norrey, Wull, Liddle,all.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon VII   A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north. "Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole's Town.

 

Here’s a kicker on the pink/bastard letter

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon VI     "Aye, but I'd flatten you."  "Stannis burned the wrong man." "No." The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. "He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings."

Jon has some misgivings
 

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon IX     A golden dawn was breaking in the east, but behind Lady Melisandre's window in the King's Tower a reddish light still flickered. Does she never sleep? What game are you playing, priestess? Did you have some other task for Mance?

A Dance with Dragons - Jon X    "He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord's chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt."

Jon had heard all this before. "Stannis Baratheon was the Lord of Dragonstone, but he was not born there. He was born at Storm's End, like his brothers." He frowned. "And what of Mance? Is he lost as well? What do your fires show?"  "The same, I fear. Only snow."

A Dance with Dragons - Jon X    "The vision was a true one. It was my reading that was false. I am as mortal as you, Jon Snow. All mortals err." "Even lord commanders." Mance Rayder and his spearwives had not returned, and Jon could not help but wonder whether the red woman had lied of a purpose. Is she playing her own game?

 

Mance has been inside WF since at least if not before Prince of WF c.37. The horns and drums begin in Ghost of WF c.46. Roose says Stannis is three miles from WF in Theon c.51.

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A Dance with Dragons - A Ghost in Winterfell    Then he heard the horn. A long low moan, it seemed to hang above the battlements, lingering in the black air, soaking deep into the bones of every man who heard it. All along the castle walls, sentries turned toward the sound, their hands tightening around the shafts of their spears. In the ruined halls and keeps of Winterfell, lords hushed other lords, horses nickered, and sleepers stirred in their dark corners. No sooner had the sound of the warhorn died away than a drum began to beat: BOOM doom BOOM doom BOOM doom. And a name passed from the lips of each man to the next, written in small white puffs of breath. Stannis, they whispered, Stannis is here, Stannis is come, Stannis, Stannis, Stannis.

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A Dance with Dragons - Theon I   "Rather than use our swords upon each other, you might try them on Lord Stannis." Lord Bolton unrolled the parchment. "His host lies not three days' ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure. Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well."

 

 If I look too closely and too deeply I find  bunches of flaws in the ASOIAF story . As the story stands at the end of DwD I personally have to believe that there is a GNC that will somehow be explained in the next installment of the saga.

Why would Mance try to get Jeyne and Theon out? Perhaps as proof that the rumors are true. The better question is why would Mance GAFF about any of this stuff? Why didn't he sneak back to the Wall and rally the wildlings?  He knew Stannis was gone. He knows how to circumvent the Wall and he might know about the baby swap.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

18 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Thumbs up for spending the time and taking the effort to try to bring this all together.

Stannis says two things after he received Lyanna’s refusal

The wrongway rangers, Massey & Thorpe left CB during DwD Jon II. They returned in Jon IV. Personally I think Karhold is too great a distance for Massey &Thorpe to have had traveled. Tomato Tamato. I do think they did visit Last Hearth.

When M & T returned to CB is when the strange council meeting takes place. By strange I mean the attendees.

When I look too closely at these novels I find many problems. A few are: Mors wants Mance’s skull. I guess that means if Mance stopped by Last Hearth on his way to find the girl, Mors wasn’t home or Mors doesn’t know what Mance looks like.

Maybe Rowan went in while Mance waited out in the car. 

20 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Another is Manderly tells Davos that he [Manderly] has a wedding to attend at WF. The Bolton letters said the lords were to come to Barrowton.

Either The George didna thoroughly edit a change of location (think Daenerys's Tyroshi--not Braavosi--accent), or Wyman misspoke. 

23 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Mance shows up at WF after the Bolton party arrived. Remember Mance had requested six young & pretty spearwives.

That's why I think the Mance and Melisandre were up to something--a plan to help Stannis--and just using Arya as a pretext to get Jon to send him. 

27 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

According to Theon

Rowan might well be an Umber, one of GreatJon’s unnamed daughters.

I agree. 

[Clegane'sPup]

22 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Maybe Rowan went in while Mance waited out in the car. 

lol, he best be gettin' that GPS device working properly.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

lol, he best be gettin' that GPS device working properly.

Har!

[Clegane'sPup]

On 2/10/2017 at 2:48 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Assuming Ramsay is the author of the so called pink letter, we can assume that Ramsay believes that Stannis is dead, and that Stannis’s host has been defeated. Ramsay has recovered or has been given Lightbringer, and he has beheaded and flayed Abel’s washerwomen. He has stuck Mance in a crow cage, but he may have left Mance alive. He believes that Stannis has sent the presumed Arya and Reek to Castle Black, and he wants them returned. He must know that Jon will recognize Jeyne Pool, and Theon is still a potentially valuable hostage. But we know that Stannis had no intention of sending Theon anywhere, which further suggests that Stannis has fooled Ramsay. Ramsay demands Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre, as well as Mance Rayder’s presumed son be turned over to him. Otherwise, he threatens to march on Castle Black. Ramsay has Jon in a tight spot since Jon has meddled in the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms, and Jon attempts to marshal the wildings, but, of course, Bowen Marsh has had enough.

How did the ruse at the crofter’s village play out? Has Ramsay killed Roose? Or is Roose still calling the shots? Will the snowy lords and their snowy sentinels cast Ramsay down and allow Stannis to enter the Winterfell? Are Galbart, Maege, Howland, and Hallis on the other side of Winterfell with Davos and Rickon? Will Selyse and Melisandre despair and burn Shireen? As Maester Aemon has said, the cold preserves, so there is no need for Jon to return immediately so as to avoid looking likely Catelyn did after three days. How long will he be out?

As of right now I canna answer da questions. I'm gonna think on them. I would be interested in reading what others think.

[rotting sea cow]

On 2/11/2017 at 2:19 AM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I believe that Mance working with Mors Umber can be ruled out based on his interaction with Theon.

There is one thing that casts doubts about your statement. It is the kinslayer accusation against Theon. First heard from the hooded man, then from one of the spearwives and finally from Mors Umber. He also seemed to be expecting him. 

[bemused]

On 2/8/2017 at 5:24 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

On 2/8/2017 at 3:54 PM, bemused said:

I think Howland would know and Manderly would know that [Barbrey Dustin] was to be trusted, and both of their lands border on hers.

Why? Just a hunch? 

Sure , like so much else, it's at least partially a hunch.. but one informed by a number of clues. First off, I think Wyman and Howland would historically think she was generally trustworthy. Their lands border hers. We hear of no disputes, or long standing rivalries between them. It's unthinkable that there wouldn't have been some regular, or semi-regular contact, certainly between Barbrey and Wyman over the years.(In contrast, contact would have been much less frequent between Manderly and the Umbers, with more exaggerated cultural differences causing their early mutual animosity.)

Howland is a little more difficult to speculate on, but he and Barbrey's late husband were brothers in arms. There might easily have been, if not a visit, a message of condolence on his part, and it would be unusual if there was no contact between them over the last 16 years. Then too, Meera and Jojen would have had to cross Barbrey's territory (or at least travel along it's borders) ..No worries are reported.. And I don't think we hear northmen make sneering use of "frog-eaters", just Freys ... so while the crannogmen may be mysterious, they don't seem to be generally held in fear or disdain.

.. Personally, I think Barbrey lies like a sidewalk in some matters, while being very truthful in others.. (I'm currently trying to update a thread I had about her a few years ago) .. Without going into everything that I think is suspicious about her and her stories, her attitude to Wyman is highly suggestive.. She disparages him to Theon (who she knows will not lie to Roose or Ramsey, if questioned) but then deflects blame from him during Theon's interrogation.

While in the crypts with Theon she establishes... 
 Barrowton sent men with the Young Wolf as well. I gave him as few men as I dared, but I knew that I must needs give him some or risk the wroth of Winterfell. So I had my own eyes and ears in that host. They kept me well informed. I know who you are. I know what you are.  ... ADWD, The Turncloak

"As few men as I dared" is cover for the benefit of the Boltons ... The important bit is that she was kept well informed. I doubt she was only being kept informed about Theon.

Then, during Theon's interrogation...
"Night work is not knight's work," Lady Dustin said. "And Lord Wyman is not the only man who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf."
"House Ryswell too," said Roger Ryswell.
"Even Dustins out of Barrowton." Lady Dustin parted her lips in a thin, feral smile. "The north remembers, Frey." ... ADWD, A Ghost in Winterfell

OK. So she is being kept well informed by her own eyes and ears.. which in the particular context given refers to her own men/bannermen (in that host), but taken broadly, it can also refer to her own observation, and we can see Barbrey is pretty astute. (And for that matter if she had eyes and ears "in that host" might she not also have some elsewhere?)

There are no "Dustins" per se out of Barrowton.. but there is one named close bannerman of hers that we hear of - Ronnel Stout .. if, as seems likely, he was her source of information .. (Why name him and Kyle Condon if they're not to come into play again, somehow?) ... how late in the game was he able to send messages ?... And for that matter, where is he? ...I don't think those men were called up by Roose before heading north, or we should have seen or heard of either a happy reunion of Harwood and Ronnel (at best) or perhaps news of Ronnel's death (at worst).

When Roose interrupts Ramsay's feast and orders everyone out..
Harwood Stout bowed stiffly and relinquished his hall without a word. ...Reek III

I read strong resentment in his stiff bow and silence ... and not because he wants to continue feasting. - We know through Theon that Ramsay and his men have been eating through Stout's winter stores and Ramsay's bitches have just killed his dog, but I don't think either is enough to explain his behaviour - not when put together with the other clues. (i.e. the snowmen etc.which I'll come back to..)

Barbrey tells Theon..

"Lord Bolton aspires to more than mere lordship. Why not King of the North? Tywin Lannister is dead, the Kingslayer is maimed, the Imp is fled. The Lannisters are a spent force, and you were kind enough to rid him of the Starks. Old Walder Frey will not object to his fat little Walda becoming a queen. White Harbor might prove troublesome should Lord Wyman survive this coming battle … but I am quite sure that he will not. No more than Stannis. Roose will remove both of them, as he removed the Young Wolf. Who else is there?"
"You," said Theon. "There is you. The Lady of Barrowton, a Dustin by marriage, a Ryswell by birth."
That pleased her. She took a sip of wine, her dark eyes sparkling, and said, "The widow of Barrowton … and yes, if I so choose, I could be an inconvenience. Of course, Roose sees that too, so he takes care to keep me sweet." .. The Prince of Winterfell

Here, she's linked to Manderly by language.. WH "might prove troublesome"... she "could be an inconvenience". There's no real difference between the two. I don't think there's much Roose could do to "keep her sweet" with her sister and nephew dead. (Theon reminds us that they were the kin of the Ryswells,too... Safe to say they are following Barbrey's lead.)

She also tells Theon that Roose has no real emotions - he merely plays with men, including herself and Theon. Just compare that to Theon's thoughts when Roose tells him..  

"I mean you no harm, you know. I owe you much and more."
"You do?" Some part of him was screaming, This is a trap, he is playing with you, the son is just the shadow of the father. Lord Ramsay played with his hopes all the time. ... Reek III
... Barbrey is no less astute than Theon, I think she can see that "the son is just the shadow of the father". She hates the son ... I doubt that she hates the father less.

So, coming back to the snowmen, I think she's properly associated with Manderly, Stout and Whoresbane and none of them are actually on Roose's side of the gameboard.

With the visibility in the snowstorm so poor, I've never thought the snowmen were signals to any characters in the books, but they are signals to us. They're introduced to us in The Turncloak ...

A battle was being fought in the yard; Ryswells pelting Barrowton boys with snowballs. Above, he could see some squires building snowmen along the battlements. ..<snip>.. "Lord Winter has joined us with his levies," one of the sentries outside the Great Hall japed...

I take the bold as a prediction. A battle will be fought in the yard. "Lord Winter" might be an obscure hint (but only if you think, like me, that Benjen is in WF secretly - an interim Stark in WF - then it resonates with Maege hailing Robb "the King of Winter". Benjen was the north's de facto lord during RR)

More snowmen had risen in the yard by the time Theon Greyjoy made his way back. To command the snowy sentinels on the walls, the squires had erected a dozen snowy lords. One was plainly meant to be Lord Manderly; it was the fattest snowman that Theon had ever seen. The one-armed lord could only be Harwood Stout, the snow lady Barbrey Dustin. And the one closest to the door with the beard made of icicles had to be old Whoresbane Umber. 

I assume the rest of the dozen snowy lords also stand in for real characters, even if the squires never modeled them after anyone, and even if the number of Northern Lords present for the wedding don't number a dozen. 

Then, by the time the rescue mission is underway..

Outside the snow still fell. The snowmen the squires had built had grown into monstrous giants, ten feet tall and hideously misshapen ..Theon I

Lord Winter's levies have grown much larger (greater) than they were at first seen to be, have taken on a different shape and an ominous aspect.(I would say, preparatory to the coming battle in the yard.)

Barbrey points out something else that we should think about - the maesters ...

Three of them had entered together by the lord's door behind the dais—one tall, one plump, one very young, but in their robes and chains they were three grey peas from a black pod. Before the war, Medrick had served Lord Hornwood, Rhodry Lord Cerwyn, and young Henly Lord Slate. Roose Bolton had brought them all to Winterfell to take charge of Luwin's ravens, so messages might be sent and received from here again. ... The Prince of Winterfell

...and she launches into her diatribe against Walys and maesters in general. Informative as it is, we can still think of some maesters who have been loyal, even devoted to the families they serve.(Cressen, Luwin,e.g.)... We don't know how loyal Medrick, Rhodry and Henly were to their lords, and I haven't found any clues to their own houses in their names, but it's possible Medrick and Rhodry served for a long time.. Henly is young, but served the Slates who once ruled the Wolf's Den (of fierce reputation).. maybe their lords could trust them - but I'll bet Roose can't .

At first I thought the only importance in their being in WF was that no messages would be coming to Roose from their houses, but no, they're present in part, so messages might be sent, which is important to what I think is going on inside WF and the northern resistance / GNC. I don't see why they wouldn't have brought a few of their own/home birds with them. If the Hornwood has already been handed back, then probably nothing would be sent there (unless Roose ordered it), but to House Cerwyn or House Slate ?.. I can see either being very important, and I'll explain more later.

Side Note on Jonelle Cerwyn.. @Lost Melnibonean, I don't think she's "under Roose's protection" at all, if by that you mean, Roose brought her back north with him. I think Lord Cerwyn would have sent her home with some kind of escort, as soon as Robb agreed to marry a Frey. The way home was unrestricted at that point. Why drag her into war for no reason? Home cooking was never really what Lord Cerwyn wanted. Theon had that situation sussed out pretty soundly, IMO. ... If she wasn't at home when Cley was killed, how is it either Manderly or Ramsey didn't take her seat under "protective occupation"? There were Cerwyn men with Ramsay at Moat Cailin; who sent them, if not Jonelle?

Moving on..

On 2/8/2017 at 5:24 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

The Liddle man (whom I suspect is none other than the Middle Liddle) who met Bran was the only person we know of who came into direct contact with Bran et al. I have to assume that the Liddle man protected Bran's secret, and the fact that Bran, and presumably Rickon, has not been widely circulated. 

Why? Because he comes into the story later ? ... I think there are definite clues that he's the Liddle, himself :

In the paragraphs preceding the meeting in the cave  Meera has asked if there are people in these mountains, and Bran has listed off the clans, finishing up...

Lord Wull came to Winterfell once, to do his fealty and talk with Father, and he had the buckets on his shield. He's no true lord, though. Well, he is, but they call him just the Wull, and there's the Knott and the Norrey and the Liddle too. At Winterfell we called them lords, but their own folk don't."
Jojen Reed stopped to catch his breath. "Do you think these mountain folk know we're here?"
"They know." Bran had seen them watching; not with his own eyes, but with Summer's sharper ones, that missed so little. "They won't bother us so long as we don't try and make off with their goats or horses."

It's not only Liddle territory they've been travelling through, and it's not only Liddles that the bastard's boys have been questioning. It would be hard for any watchers to mistake Bran for anyone else.

Following just after this in the narrative, we meet the man in the cave...  

Bran figured him for a Liddle. The clasp that fastened his squirrelskin cloak was gold and bronze and wrought in the shape of a pinecone, and the Liddles bore pinecones on the white half of their green-and-white shields.

There's plenty to discuss in their conversation, but strictly for purposes of identification, Jojen calls the man "My lord" and the man does not demur. He would know very well how the Liddle would be addressed by someone in WF, or by folk outside of his own who guessed his status. So if he was not the Liddle, I think he would have corrected Jojen. (Like Middle Liddle, I think he comes into the story later too, but in disguise.)

I conclude that he's the Liddle and Bran's secret isn't his alone to protect. I believe you said, upthread, that he was saving Bran from further danger.. I don't see how that works. He knows about Mormont's ranging and the birds flying back silent. He may or may not know Jon is with Mormont, but in any case, Jon has very little authority at that point... and the NW takes no part , etc. ... There's something very wrong, very out of character in his behaviour.

Bran said.. They won't bother us so long as we don't try and make off with their goats or horses. ..This is no doubt generally true, but shouldn't be in this particular case. ... When he's trying to track the boys, Theon tells us...

Somehow Osha and the wretched boys were eluding him. It should not have been possible, not on foot, burdened with a cripple and a young child. Every passing hour increased the likelihood that they would make good their escape. If they reach a village . . . The people of the north would never deny Ned Stark's sons, Robb's brothers. They'd have mounts to speed them on their way, food. Men would fight for the honor of protecting them. The whole bloody north would rally around them. ... ACoK, Theon IV

I think Theon has it right, judging by the northmen's later sentiments about (and actions on behalf of) "Ned's little girl" ... So what's going on? Not only is he letting Bran go from one danger into another, but so are watchers from other clan territories that Bran has passed through, and possibly the Umbers, with whom the clans have contact. Why does no-one try to take them into protective custody?

Here's the whole conversation,hidden to save space, and note the second half of the first sentence. (Bran asks if it's far to the Wall)...

Spoiler

"Not so far as the raven flies," said the Liddle, if that was who he was. "Farther, for them as lacks wings."
The Liddle took out a knife and whittled at a stick. "When there was a Stark in Winterfell, a maiden girl could walk the kingsroad in her name-day gown and still go unmolested, and travelers could find fire, bread, and salt at many an inn and holdfast. But the nights are colder now, and doors are closed. There's squids in the wolfswood, and flayed men ride the kingsroad asking after strangers."
The Reeds exchanged a look. "Flayed men?" said Jojen.
"The Bastard's boys, aye. He was dead, but now he's not. And paying good silver for wolfskins, a man hears, and maybe gold for word of certain other walking dead." He looked at Bran when he said that, and at Summer stretched out beside him. "As to that Wall," the man went on, "it's not a place that I'd be going. The Old Bear took the Watch into the haunted woods, and all that come back was his ravens, with hardly a message between them. Dark wings, dark words, me mother used to say, but when the birds fly silent, seems to me that's even darker." He poked at the fire with his stick. "It was different when there was a Stark in Winterfell. But the old wolf's dead and the young one's gone south to play the game of thrones, and all that's left us is the ghosts."
"The wolves will come again," said Jojen solemnly.
"And how would you be knowing, boy?"
"I dreamed it."
"Some nights I dream of me mother that I buried nine years past," the man said, "but when I wake, she's not come back to us."
"There are dreams and dreams, my lord."

In some places, the Liddle seems to be testing them, particularly Jojen. Don't forget how young Jojen must appear, because of his size. Why should the man accept that Jojen's dreams are different? When he asks,"And how would you be knowing, boy?",it could easily stand in for, I know, but how do you know?  The only solution to the many questions, for me, is that the clans have been told to keep their distance and let Bran proceed.. and whose authority would they accept on that?

 Galbart Glover's maester had claimed the mountain clans were too quarrelsome to ever band together without a Stark to lead them. He might not have been lying. He might just have been wrong.  ... ADWD, The Wayward Bride

I don't think the maester was either lying or wrong, it only appears so to Asha because they're with Stannis at that time.

They would accept Benjen's word that Bran needs to be allowed to proceed, but who could have convinced Benjen ?...

All Bran could think of was Old Nan's story of the Others and the last hero, hounded through the white woods by dead men and spiders big as hounds. He was afraid for a moment, until he remembered how that story ended. "The children will help him," he blurted, "the children of the forest!" ... AGoT, Bran IV

Also reinforced by... The best hope is Winterfell. The Starks must rally the north. ...  Qhorin, ACOK, Jon V ..(true whether the adversary is wildlings, or the Others)

There are many, many more clues that lead me to the conclusion that Benjen is secretly in WF (and most likely the hooded man) but the puzzling situation with Bran and the Liddle is what set me on the track.

There would be no "hands off" for Osha and Rickon , and I think they were probably scooped up quite quickly by Umber and Manderly men as they ventured toward WH. They were probably sent to Skagos by ship from Widow's Watch (mentioned no less than 5 times by Manderly), thus avoiding crossing either Bolton or Karstark territory.

What's up inside WF ?

Benjen is there as the HM.. None of the Northmen present are really Roose's allies.. The hints planted about a secret passage are true .. It's protected by magic - similar to the Black Gate, which is how it could have been forgotten, and remained undiscovered for perhaps centuries. Benjen now knows about it through CoTF/Bloodraven. I think we're given a mini-parallel in the passage Arya & co find on the shore of the God's eye, leading into the holdfast (long tunnel, one end emerging near water) - in this case between WF and somewhere toward the branch of the White Knife. 

Robett Glover has been raising men much more successfully than reported - to take WF .. I believe the plan is foreshadowed in ACoK, Theon V, when Theon tells Asha...  And I’ve had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I’ll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, ... In this case, no seige engines required - the army will be inside the gates, thanks to Benjen opening the passage and Barbrey unblocking the crypt door.

House Cerwyn would serve as a handy staging area situated close by the river. Ravens could be sent to house Cerwyn (e.g.) to arrange times to send supplies ,men, and so on. With all the ravens hanging about, no-one would notice.

The sound of the first warhorn, that hangs over the battlements comes from inside (HM) and signals the Umbers to begin their clamour.

I have to post this now, because if I lose it,I'll have to bash my head against the wall. I'll finish up tomorrow. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, bemused said:

Sure , like so much else, it's at least partially a hunch.. but one informed by a number of clues. First off, I think Wyman and Howland would historically think she was generally trustworthy. Their lands border hers. We hear of no disputes, or long standing rivalries between them. It's unthinkable that there wouldn't have been some regular, or semi-regular contact, certainly between Barbrey and Wyman over the years.(In contrast, contact would have been much less frequent between Manderly and the Umbers, with more exaggerated cultural differences causing their early mutual animosity.)

Howland is a little more difficult to speculate on, but he and Barbrey's late husband were brothers in arms. There might easily have been, if not a visit, a message of condolence on his part, and it would be unusual if there was no contact between them over the last 16 years. Then too, Meera and Jojen would have had to cross Barbrey's territory (or at least travel along it's borders) ..No worries are reported.. And I don't think we hear northmen make sneering use of "frog-eaters", just Freys ... so while the crannogmen may be mysterious, they don't seem to be generally held in fear or disdain.

.. Personally, I think Barbrey lies like a sidewalk in some matters, while being very truthful in others.. (I'm currently trying to update a thread I had about her a few years ago) .. Without going into everything that I think is suspicious about her and her stories, her attitude to Wyman is highly suggestive.. She disparages him to Theon (who she knows will not lie to Roose or Ramsey, if questioned) but then deflects blame from him during Theon's interrogation.

While in the crypts with Theon she establishes... 
 Barrowton sent men with the Young Wolf as well. I gave him as few men as I dared, but I knew that I must needs give him some or risk the wroth of Winterfell. So I had my own eyes and ears in that host. They kept me well informed. I know who you are. I know what you are.  ... ADWD, The Turncloak

"As few men as I dared" is cover for the benefit of the Boltons ... The important bit is that she was kept well informed. I doubt she was only being kept informed about Theon.

Then, during Theon's interrogation...
"Night work is not knight's work," Lady Dustin said. "And Lord Wyman is not the only man who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf."
"House Ryswell too," said Roger Ryswell.
"Even Dustins out of Barrowton." Lady Dustin parted her lips in a thin, feral smile. "The north remembers, Frey." ... ADWD, A Ghost in Winterfell

OK. So she is being kept well informed by her own eyes and ears.. which in the particular context given refers to her own men/bannermen (in that host), but taken broadly, it can also refer to her own observation, and we can see Barbrey is pretty astute. (And for that matter if she had eyes and ears "in that host" might she not also have some elsewhere?)

There are no "Dustins" per se out of Barrowton.. but there is one named close bannerman of hers that we hear of - Ronnel Stout .. if, as seems likely, he was her source of information .. (Why name him and Kyle Condon if they're not to come into play again, somehow?) ... how late in the game was he able to send messages ?... And for that matter, where is he? ...I don't think those men were called up by Roose before heading north, or we should have seen or heard of either a happy reunion of Harwood and Ronnel (at best) or perhaps news of Ronnel's death (at worst).

When Roose interrupts Ramsay's feast and orders everyone out..
Harwood Stout bowed stiffly and relinquished his hall without a word. ...Reek III

I read strong resentment in his stiff bow and silence ... and not because he wants to continue feasting. - We know through Theon that Ramsay and his men have been eating through Stout's winter stores and Ramsay's bitches have just killed his dog, but I don't think either is enough to explain his behaviour - not when put together with the other clues. (i.e. the snowmen etc.which I'll come back to..)

Barbrey tells Theon..

"Lord Bolton aspires to more than mere lordship. Why not King of the North? Tywin Lannister is dead, the Kingslayer is maimed, the Imp is fled. The Lannisters are a spent force, and you were kind enough to rid him of the Starks. Old Walder Frey will not object to his fat little Walda becoming a queen. White Harbor might prove troublesome should Lord Wyman survive this coming battle … but I am quite sure that he will not. No more than Stannis. Roose will remove both of them, as he removed the Young Wolf. Who else is there?"
"You," said Theon. "There is you. The Lady of Barrowton, a Dustin by marriage, a Ryswell by birth."
That pleased her. She took a sip of wine, her dark eyes sparkling, and said, "The widow of Barrowton … and yes, if I so choose, I could be an inconvenience. Of course, Roose sees that too, so he takes care to keep me sweet." .. The Prince of Winterfell

Here, she's linked to Manderly by language.. WH "might prove troublesome"... she "could be an inconvenience". There's no real difference between the two. I don't think there's much Roose could do to "keep her sweet" with her sister and nephew dead. (Theon reminds us that they were the kin of the Ryswells,too... Safe to say they are following Barbrey's lead.)

She also tells Theon that Roose has no real emotions - he merely plays with men, including herself and Theon. Just compare that to Theon's thoughts when Roose tells him..  

"I mean you no harm, you know. I owe you much and more."
"You do?" Some part of him was screaming, This is a trap, he is playing with you, the son is just the shadow of the father. Lord Ramsay played with his hopes all the time. ... Reek III
... Barbrey is no less astute than Theon, I think she can see that "the son is just the shadow of the father". She hates the son ... I doubt that she hates the father less.

So, coming back to the snowmen, I think she's properly associated with Manderly, Stout and Whoresbane and none of them are actually on Roose's side of the gameboard.

With the visibility in the snowstorm so poor, I've never thought the snowmen were signals to any characters in the books, but they are signals to us. They're introduced to us in The Turncloak ...

A battle was being fought in the yard; Ryswells pelting Barrowton boys with snowballs. Above, he could see some squires building snowmen along the battlements. ..<snip>.. "Lord Winter has joined us with his levies," one of the sentries outside the Great Hall japed...

I take the bold as a prediction. A battle will be fought in the yard. "Lord Winter" might be an obscure hint (but only if you think, like me, that Benjen is in WF secretly - an interim Stark in WF - then it resonates with Maege hailing Robb "the King of Winter". Benjen was the north's de facto lord during RR)

More snowmen had risen in the yard by the time Theon Greyjoy made his way back. To command the snowy sentinels on the walls, the squires had erected a dozen snowy lords. One was plainly meant to be Lord Manderly; it was the fattest snowman that Theon had ever seen. The one-armed lord could only be Harwood Stout, the snow lady Barbrey Dustin. And the one closest to the door with the beard made of icicles had to be old Whoresbane Umber. 

I assume the rest of the dozen snowy lords also stand in for real characters, even if the squires never modeled them after anyone, and even if the number of Northern Lords present for the wedding don't number a dozen. 

Then, by the time the rescue mission is underway..

Outside the snow still fell. The snowmen the squires had built had grown into monstrous giants, ten feet tall and hideously misshapen ..Theon I

Lord Winter's levies have grown much larger (greater) than they were at first seen to be, have taken on a different shape and an ominous aspect.(I would say, preparatory to the coming battle in the yard.)

Barbrey points out something else that we should think about - the maesters ...

Three of them had entered together by the lord's door behind the dais—one tall, one plump, one very young, but in their robes and chains they were three grey peas from a black pod. Before the war, Medrick had served Lord Hornwood, Rhodry Lord Cerwyn, and young Henly Lord Slate. Roose Bolton had brought them all to Winterfell to take charge of Luwin's ravens, so messages might be sent and received from here again. ... The Prince of Winterfell

...and she launches into her diatribe against Walys and maesters in general. Informative as it is, we can still think of some maesters who have been loyal, even devoted to the families they serve.(Cressen, Luwin,e.g.)... We don't know how loyal Medrick, Rhodry and Henly were to their lords, and I haven't found any clues to their own houses in their names, but it's possible Medrick and Rhodry served for a long time.. Henly is young, but served the Slates who once ruled the Wolf's Den (of fierce reputation).. maybe their lords could trust them - but I'll bet Roose can't .

At first I thought the only importance in their being in WF was that no messages would be coming to Roose from their houses, but no, they're present in part, so messages might be sent, which is important to what I think is going on inside WF and the northern resistance / GNC. I don't see why they wouldn't have brought a few of their own/home birds with them. If the Hornwood has already been handed back, then probably nothing would be sent there (unless Roose ordered it), but to House Cerwyn or House Slate ?.. I can see either being very important, and I'll explain more later.

I agree completely that there are a lot of hints that Barbrey might be moving away from Roose, and possibly toward Manderly. But I don't see any reason to assume that Manderly or Reed, or Glover or Mormont should have trusted Barbrey from the beginning. Heck, I don't see any reason to assume that Reed or Mormont should have trusted Manderly, but for the Glover connection. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, bemused said:

Side Note on Jonelle Cerwyn.. @Lost Melnibonean, I don't think she's "under Roose's protection" at all, if by that you mean, Roose brought her back north with him. I think Lord Cerwyn would have sent her home with some kind of escort, as soon as Robb agreed to marry a Frey. The way home was unrestricted at that point. Why drag her into war for no reason? Home cooking was never really what Lord Cerwyn wanted. Theon had that situation sussed out pretty soundly, IMO. ... If she wasn't at home when Cley was killed, how is it either Manderly or Ramsey didn't take her seat under "protective occupation"? There were Cerwyn men with Ramsay at Moat Cailin; who sent them, if not Jonelle?

A bird from the Twinside would have been sufficient to compel the castellan at Cerwyn to put levies under Ramsay's command. The text I'm pies that Jonelle Cerwyn will indeed go south with her father. There is nothing in the text to suggest otherwise. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, bemused said:

They would accept Benjen's word that Bran needs to be allowed to proceed, but who could have convinced Benjen ?...

All Bran could think of was Old Nan's story of the Others and the last hero, hounded through the white woods by dead men and spiders big as hounds. He was afraid for a moment, until he remembered how that story ended. "The children will help him," he blurted, "the children of the forest!" ... AGoT, Bran IV

Also reinforced by... The best hope is Winterfell. The Starks must rally the north. ...  Qhorin, ACOK, Jon V ..(true whether the adversary is wildlings, or the Others)

There are many, many more clues that lead me to the conclusion that Benjen is secretly in WF (and most likely the hooded man) but the puzzling situation with Bran and the Liddle is what set me on the track.

There would be no "hands off" for Osha and Rickon , and I think they were probably scooped up quite quickly by Umber and Manderly men as they ventured toward WH. They were probably sent to Skagos by ship from Widow's Watch (mentioned no less than 5 times by Manderly), thus avoiding crossing either Bolton or Karstark territory.

What's up inside WF ?

Benjen is there as the HM.. None of the Northmen present are really Roose's allies.. The hints planted about a secret passage are true .. It's protected by magic - similar to the Black Gate, which is how it could have been forgotten, and remained undiscovered for perhaps centuries. Benjen now knows about it through CoTF/Bloodraven. I think we're given a mini-parallel in the passage Arya & co find on the shore of the God's eye, leading into the holdfast (long tunnel, one end emerging near water) - in this case between WF and somewhere toward the branch of the White Knife. 

Robett Glover has been raising men much more successfully than reported - to take WF .. I believe the plan is foreshadowed in ACoK, Theon V, when Theon tells Asha...  And I’ve had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I’ll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, ... In this case, no seige engines required - the army will be inside the gates, thanks to Benjen opening the passage and Barbrey unblocking the crypt door.

House Cerwyn would serve as a handy staging area situated close by the river. Ravens could be sent to house Cerwyn (e.g.) to arrange times to send supplies ,men, and so on. With all the ravens hanging about, no-one would notice.

The sound of the first warhorn, that hangs over the battlements comes from inside (HM) and signals the Umbers to begin their clamour.

I have to post this now, because if I lose it,I'll have to bash my head against the wall. I'll finish up tomorrow. 

The hooded man is Theon Durden. It is known. 

Would a recognizable Glover, Mollen, or other Stark loyalist be striding around occupied Winterfell if he were striking folks down from the shadows? No this is a brave and haughty man confronting Reek face-to-face. He was wearing a hooded cloak just like Theon was at the beginning of Theon I in Clash. 

And if it were Benjen, well, then we'd have a Stark in Winterfell. 

As to your thoughts on coordination and control in a war zone, I think you underestimate Roose's ability to get her intelligence. If Roose were allowing folks to send ravens out of Winterfell, he would be an incompetent fool, and Roose is not an incompetent fool. And since Roose has scouts out--they reported at one point that Stannis’s march had slowed to a crawl--staging an army at Cerwyn would be hazardous, but like you do, I suspect Manderly and Glover do have another army up their sleeve somewhere. (Perhaps they have liberated Torrhen’s Square?) And whenever I get too bogged down in logistics and reality, I recall that the George had Sandor riding about the Riverlands on one horse with thousands of golden coins stuffed into his pockets. Oh, and he had Brienne conceal a longsword in her bedroll. And Arya was able to walk up to the Wind Witch even though all the gates were closed. In other words, if the George wants 5,000 Stark loyalists camped at Cerwyn, or some holdfast near the White Knife unbeknown to Roose, then by George, he shall have it. 

[bemused]

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The hooded man is Theon Durden. It is known.

I don't buy Theon Durden at all. There's no real disassociation going on. Theon is always reminding himself to be Reek out of fear. There are no hallucinations, unless you count Bran's face on the weirwood, and that could be magic.

It's much more likely that Theon believes the person he meets to be dead, one of the many ghosts he senses in WF... and I'm sure there must be many men with hooded cloaks inside WF.

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Would a recognizable Glover, Mollen, or other Stark loyalist be striding around occupied Winterfell if he were striking folks down from the shadows?

No...But I don't think the HM is committing any of the murders.. I think the culprit is Ramsay, Theon's first suspicion - perhaps excluding the death of Little Walder (I don't think BW acted alone).. He's hooded,visibility is poor and he's not seen anywhere where people are gathered.

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And if it were Benjen, well, then we'd have a Stark in Winterfell. 

Yes, I think we do. Many people have noted that the storm seems to emanate from WF (it begins after Roose occupies the castle), and many think it's because there is no Stark in WF. I think it's because there is a Stark in WF, and whatever magical wards may help protect the castle only function when a Stark is present.

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think you underestimate Roose's ability to get her intelligence. If Roose were allowing folks to send ravens out of Winterfell, he would be an incompetent fool, and Roose is not an incompetent fool. And since Roose has scouts out--they reported at one point that Stannis’s march had slowed to a crawl--staging an army at Cerwyn would be hazardous, but like you do, I suspect Manderly and Glover do have another army up their sleeve somewhere.

I don't say Roose would allow it.. I'm saying it would be difficult for even a man of Roose's competence to prevent, under the circumstances. There are many loose ravens, some presumably wild, some not - all free to fly about - and three maesters tasked with trying to get Luwin's sorted out and caught... with the confusion of ravens and the snowstorm hampering visibility, I think it would be very possible for a Cerwyn or Slate raven to head for home without being noticed. (Why are these maesters and their houses identified, we may ask...)

Roose has scouts out, but after a while they stop returning ..and they're scouting for Stannis approaching from Deepwood, which is in a totally different direction from Cerwyn.

I don't think we're talking about a 5000 strong army moving en masse anywhere..

I'm going to call them Robett's men for now, and I think they make up a much smaller force.. maybe not more than 1500 .. but enough that, when added to the northmen with Roose (after he has sent out the Freys and Manderly's men), and having the advantage of surprise, they'd have a decent chance of vanquishing him, or at least driving him out of WF.

The level of the crypts we do see apparently extends well beyond the perimeter of the castle, so who knows how deep and how far the lower levels extend.. who knows how long an entrance/escape tunnel might be?

I'm talking about moving much smaller numbers in increments - 100 here,100 there - first to Jonelle, and then on to WF, so there's never what you'd call a standing army at her seat.

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

A bird from the Twinside would have been sufficient to compel the castellan at Cerwyn to put levies under Ramsay's command. The text I'm pies that Jonelle Cerwyn will indeed go south with her father. There is nothing in the text to suggest otherwise.

In reverse order : "Lord Cerwyn means to take his daughter south with us. To cook for him, he says. Theon is certain I'll find the girl in my bedroll one night. I wish … I wish Father was here …"

We don't know if Robb thought of some way of disuading him before they left, but meaning to do something is not doing it ... Even if he did take her, as I say, I'm sure she would have been sent back once Robb became engaged. It's not likely she would have done much cooking, at home..(surely the Cerwyns had cooks).. And why is she not mentioned, even in passing, thereafter ... until she signs the documents in Barrowton.. Your suggestion implies that Roose would have had her with him at the red wedding, then just let her off the hook once they were home... rather unwise, for someone who's trying to hide his own involvement.

Who is this Cerwyn castellan? No castellan is ever mentioned. Who would have appointed him? Probably not Cley since, when he joined Cassel outside of WF.. it appeared it would be a pretty easy operation.

[Lost Melnibonean]

48 minutes ago, bemused said:

Who is this Cerwyn castellan? No castellan is ever mentioned. Who would have appointed him? Probably not Cley since, when he joined Cassel outside of WF.. it appeared it would be a pretty easy operation.

Whomever Medger left as castellan unless Jonelle has had to name a new one. Somebody has to be in charge of the castle. 

[bemused]

On 2/15/2017 at 5:22 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Whomever Medger left as castellan unless Jonelle has had to name a new one. Somebody has to be in charge of the castle. 

Well, there's no mention, no evidence of a Cerwyn castellan. And there's no mention of Jonelle after the scene with Robb's bannermen (If under Roose's protection, why was she not in Harrenhall?) ... Medger's announcement of his intention seems like a trial balloon to me - of a kind with the ways the other lords are testing Robb's resolve and decision making at the time.

Overall, there are some possible hints that are easy to overlook (including by me, previously)... First, from Roose..

 "I left six hundred men at the ford. Spearmen from the rills, the mountains, and the White Knife, a hundred Hornwood longbows, some freeriders and hedge knights, and a strong force of Stout and Cerwyn men to stiffen them. Ronnel Stout and Ser Kyle Condon have the command. Ser Kyle was the late Lord Cerwyn's right hand, as I'm sure you know; my lady. ...ASoS, Cat VI

And looking back to AGoT...

 Lord Cerwyn had actually brought his daughter with him, a plump, homely maid of thirty years who sat at her father's left hand and never lifted her eyes from her plate. ... Bran VI, AGOT

It seems to me now, that there's reason to doubt Jonelle even went as far as Moat Cailin. Kyle was Medger's right hand and Jonelle is called his left hand - by using language that is commonly used to denote political power or authority. George is not just describing seating arrangements.

Why does Jonelle never lift her eyes from her plate? .. George plays with this by telling us she's plump, but doesn't describe her tucking in with relish... Is she so painfully shy ? ... He doesn't call her shy .. Is she embarrassed by being used (in whatever way Medger is using her)?.. Is it silent protest?.. Sadness?  We can't say for sure, but a noblewoman who "sits at her (lord) father's left hand" is very unlikely to be his cook. 

There may even be some slight fodder for shippers here. Right+ left , dexter+sinister, male+female, Kyle+Jonelle.

Now I say Theon was only teasing Robb, and there's no physical sign that Jonelle ever left the north. Either she was Medger's de facto castellan as Cat was Ned's .. (Cat didn't leave a castellan over Robb either, only appointing Rodrik when there was just Bran and Rickon left in WF.) .. or Jonelle was just an able, mature assistant for Cley, who was slightly younger than Robb.

 

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Was the Mance trying to signal to Jon that he was being glamoured as Rattleshirt? 

Or was the George just signaling this to the reader?

During Stannis's war council after the return of the wrongway rangers the Mance drew Jon's attention to the ruby, and Melisandre confirmed that she was controlling him with it.

He pledged to do Jon's bidding as long as he didn't have to wear a black cloak. That's the reason the Mance gave Jon for his desertion. And the Mance called Jon bastard which was the reason Jon gave him for his desertion.

If the Mance was trying to tip off Jon, why?

[Clegane'sPup]

On 2/23/2017 at 4:55 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Was the Mance trying to signal to Jon that he was being glamoured as Rattleshirt? 

Interesting question. I think more along the line of taunting.

On 2/23/2017 at 4:55 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Or was the George just signaling this to the reader?

Reading the first time I had no idea glamored Rattleshirt was Mance until the reveal later in the book.

On 2/23/2017 at 4:55 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

During Stannis's war council after the return of the wrongway rangers the Mance drew Jon's attention to the ruby, and Melisandre confirmed that she was controlling him with it.

He pledged to do Jon's bidding as long as he didn't have to wear a black cloak. That's the reason the Mance gave Jon for his desertion. And the Mance called Jon bastard which was the reason Jon gave him for his desertion.

Dunna know.

On 2/23/2017 at 4:55 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

If the Mance was trying to tip off Jon, why?

I think Mance was taunting Jon. There is after all a rather large age and experience difference between Jon & Mance.

The wrong way rangers weren’t the only ones traveling about. Stannis went on a rideabout. Stannis also visited the stockades where Mance, Sigorn and Rattleshirt were housed.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jon I   Stannis Baratheon was proving to be a prickly guest, and a restless one. He had ridden down the kingsroad almost as far as Queenscrown, prowled through the empty hovels of Mole's Town, inspected the ruined forts at Queensgate and Oakenshield. Each night he walked atop the Wall with Lady Melisandre, and during the days he visited the stockades, picking captives out for the red woman to question.

Below LC Snow and Stannis have a little dialogue about The Mance.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jon I    The only man who can bind them to your cause is Mance Rayder."  "I know that," Stannis said, unhappily. "I have spent hours speaking with the man. He knows much and more of our true enemy, and there is cunning in him, I'll grant you. Even if he were to renounce his kingship, though, the man remains an oathbreaker. Suffer one deserter to live, and you encourage others to desert. No. Laws should be made of iron, not of pudding. Mance Rayder's life is forfeit by every law of the Seven Kingdoms."  "The law ends at the Wall, Your Grace. You could make good use of Mance."

At the time of the council meeting involving the wrong way rangers I am not sure if Stannis knows Rattleshirt is Mance. It does seem that Mance is taunting LC Snow though.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jon IV   The solar was hot and crowded. Stannis and his captains were gathered over the map of the north. The wrong-way rangers were amongst them. Sigorn was there as well, the young Magnar of Thenn, clad in a leather hauberk sewn with bronze scales. Rattleshirt sat scratching at the manacle on his wrist with a cracked yellow fingernail. Brown stubble covered his sunken cheeks and receding chin, and strands of dirty hair hung across his eyes. "Here he comes," he said when he saw Jon, "the brave boy who slew Mance Rayder when he was caged and bound." The big square-cut gem that adorned his iron cuff glimmered redly. "Do you like my ruby, Snow? A token o' love from Lady Red."

It strikes me as rather strange Stannis gives Jon a gift. Does Stannis know Rattleshirt is Mance?

 

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - Jon IV   "As you wish. I have a gift for you, Lord Snow." The king waved a hand at Rattleshirt. "Him."   Lady Melisandre smiled. "You did say you wanted men, Lord Snow. I believe our Lord of Bones still qualifies."

 

 

LC Snow is taken aback. Like saying wtf.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jon IV   Jon was aghast. "Your Grace, this man cannot be trusted. If I keep him here, someone will slit his throat for him. If I send him ranging, he'll just go back over to the wildlings."  "Not me. I'm done with those bloody fools." Rattleshirt tapped the ruby on his wrist. "Ask your red witch, bastard."

I get to read of Mel speaking in a strange tongue and Mance’s remarks. Still doesn’t tell me if Stannis knows about the glamour.

Quote

Melisandre spoke softly in a strange tongue. The ruby at her throat throbbed slowly, and Jon saw that the smaller stone on Rattleshirt's wrist was brightening and darkening as well. "So long as he wears the gem he is bound to me, blood and soul," the red priestess said. "This man will serve you faithfully. The flames do not lie, Lord Snow." Perhaps not, Jon thought, but you do. "I'll range for you, bastard," Rattleshirt declared. "I'll give you sage counsel or sing you pretty songs, as you prefer. I'll even fight for you. Just don't ask me to wear your cloak."

Stannis has left the Wall. I get drawn into the sparring betwixt Jon & Mance. It is revealed that this dangerous Rattleshirt character (Mance) has been walking around CB with a dagger in his possession.  A dagger which Mance could have used to kill Snow with, except, it seems that all Mance wanted to do was give the boy a lesson.

 

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - Jon VI   The wildling always seemed to be moving away or sliding sideways, so Jon's longsword glanced off a shoulder or an arm. Before long he found himself giving more ground, trying to avoid the other's crashing cuts and failing half the time. His shield had been reduced to kindling. He shook it off his arm. Sweat was running down his face and stinging his eyes beneath his helm. He is too strong and too quick, he realized, and with that greatsword he has weight and reach on me. It would have been a different fight if Jon had been armed with Longclaw, but …

His chance came on Rattleshirt's next backswing. Jon threw himself forward, bulling into the other man, and they went down together, legs entangled. Steel slammed on steel. Both men lost their swords as they rolled on the hard ground. The wildling drove a knee between Jon's legs. Jon lashed out with a mailed fist. Somehow Rattleshirt ended up on top, with Jon's head in his hands. He smashed it against the ground, then wrenched his visor open. "If I had me a dagger, you'd be less an eye by now," he snarled, before Horse and Iron Emmett dragged him off the lord commander's chest. "Let go o' me, you bloody crows," he roared.

 

During the Mel pov LC Snow is introduced to The Mance and again there is the mumbo jumbo.

 

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A Dance with Dragons - Melisandre I   He leaves me no choice. So be it. "Devan, leave us," she said, and the squire slipped away and closed the door behind him.  Melisandre touched the ruby at her neck and spoke a word. The sound echoed queerly from the corners of the room and twisted like a worm inside their ears. The wildling heard one word, the crow another. Neither was the word that left her lips. The ruby on the wildling's wrist darkened, and the wisps of light and shadow around him writhed and faded.

 

And Mance Rayder chuckled. Still does not answer whether Stannis was in on the deal.

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A Dance with Dragons - Melisandre I   Mance Rayder chuckled. "I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or let Stannis roast me." <snip> "Our false king has a prickly manner," Melisandre told Jon Snow, "but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life."  "Me?" Snow sounded startled.

The below quote has given me pause for consideration.

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon VI  "Stannis burned the wrong man." "No." The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. "He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings."

Did Stannis know about the Rattleshirt Mance switcharoo? And I still dunna understand why Mance went to WF instead of intercepting the girl on the horse. After Mance and the women are at WF why bother to save a fake Arya and Theon the turncloak? Ummmmmmm, perchance he may be participating in a grand northern conspiracy.

Hopefully I didn't get the sequence of events out of order. ummm sometimes I know less than Jon Snow. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rotting sea cow]

On 2/23/2017 at 10:55 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Was the Mance trying to signal to Jon that he was being glamoured as Rattleshirt? 

Yes he was. In more than a way.

18 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Does Stannis know Rattleshirt is Mance?

He does. I'm saying this for a while. Stannis would have never invited Rattleshirt to the war council, ruby or not. This is of the few things I found strange in my first read. Rattleshirt is a nobody, even the wildings despise him. Why is he there then? Sigorn commands 200 Thens, how many would follow Rattleshirt? Stannis would have a better time with someone like Halleck.

Val also knows. She tried to slit the throat of one of her guards, but she begged to Stannis for Mance's life, promising even to marry a kneeler. Next scene, she stands besides Stannis during the burning and acts meekly afterwards.

Val very likely also told Tormund, who - seems to me - feigned surprise during the reading of the Pink Letter.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes he was. In more than a way.

He does. I'm saying this for a while. Stannis would have never invited Rattleshirt to the war council, ruby or not. This is of the few things I found strange in my first read. Rattleshirt is a nobody, even the wildings despise him. Why is he there then? Sigorn commands 200 Thens, how many would follow Rattleshirt? Stannis would have a better time with someone like Halleck.

Val also knows. She tried to slit the throat of one of her guards, but she begged to Stannis for Mance's life, promising even to marry a kneeler. Next scene, she stands besides Stannis during the burning and acts meekly afterwards.

Val very likely also told Tormund, who - seems to me - feigned surprise during the reading of the Pink Letter.

 

Yeah, I think you might be right about Val. 

[Clegane'sPup]

19 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes he was. In more than a way.

He does. I'm saying this for a while. Stannis would have never invited Rattleshirt to the war council, ruby or not. This is of the few things I found strange in my first read. Rattleshirt is a nobody, even the wildings despise him. Why is he there then? Sigorn commands 200 Thens, how many would follow Rattleshirt? Stannis would have a better time with someone like Halleck.

Val also knows. She tried to slit the throat of one of her guards, but she begged to Stannis for Mance's life, promising even to marry a kneeler. Next scene, she stands besides Stannis during the burning and acts meekly afterwards.

Val very likely also told Tormund, who - seems to me - feigned surprise during the reading of the Pink Letter.

 

Good points.

[Colonel Green]

On 2/7/2017 at 3:17 AM, bemused said:

2. As they journey onward, Robb barely speaks to Cat, but he rides up and down the column talking to one or another of his various lords and officers. (Not just passing the time of day, IMO) They are riding through marshy territory across the river from GWW (such terrain as Howland's scouts might move through easily) and sometimes Robb rides out scouting alone with Grey Wind. Unusually risky behaviour for the young king, unless he's sending messages back and forth with Howland.(This is when/how Robb would have sent word to Howland to watch for Maege and Galbart)

If Robb was already in contact with Howland, sending Mormont and Glover to meet him to tell him about their plans is wholly unnecessary.