"Lyra and Jory are with our mother," and The Great Northern Conspiracy

[Lord Wraith]

On 2/3/2017 at 5:53 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

So where the hell are they? (I asked this two years ago, but the old thread got locked. I'm finally back to this point on my own wheel of time, so I am asking again.)

Several weeks before arriving at the Twins for the Red Wedding, Robb dispatched Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover with a detachment of troops to Greywater Watch to prepare an assault on the Ironborn at Moat Cailin with Howland Reed. Maege and Galbert knew of Robb's desire to name Jon as his heir, believing that Bran, Rickon, and Arya were dead and Sansa wed to a Lannister. 

About three months later, we hear from a younger Mormont...

Jon I, Dance

We know that Dacey went south with Maege and the Young Wolf, and that Lyra and Jorelle went south with Maege. Through Jon's musings, the storyteller suggests to us that Maege left Alysane as castellan when she marched south, and we find out later that Alysane joined Stannis after burning Asha's ships at Deepwood Motte, and that Lyra and Jorelle are still with Maege.

Did Maege return to Bear Island clandestinely, or did Alysane act on her own?

If Maege did not return, how did Lyanna know Jon STARK was the King in the North? (Bran and Rickon were presumed dead, so to what other STARK could she have been referring?.)

If Maege returned to give Alysane the order to burn Asha's ships, did she then leave again with Lyra and Jorelle leaving Lyanna at Bear Island? Or did Maege perhaps remain at Bear Island with Lyra and Jorelle?

And where is Galbert Glover? Again through Jon, the storyteller suggests that he should have gone with Maege to free Deepwood Motte...

Jon I, Dance

Galbert is not wed, but his brother's wife and children were captured when Asha seized Deepwood Motte. Or are Maege and Galbert just chillin' in the swamp at Grewater Watch? I just can't believe they sat around for three months with Bolton and Frey marching north, the Ironmen occupying Deepwood Motte, and Bear Island further threatened by the Ironmen. 

Ravens may not be able to reach Greywater Watch but surely they can be sent out. I am sure Maege and Galbert are up to something with Howland Reed but we can't be sure what.

On 2/3/2017 at 7:42 PM, Scorpion92 said:

All credits go to @pobeb

Read about the descriptions of she-bears and septas in High septon's employ. I think there are too many similarities to dismiss it.

Never been a fan of this or HS = HR. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Ravens may not be able to reach Greywater Watch but surely they can be sent out. I am sure Maege and Galbert are up to something with Howland Reed but we can't be sure what.

Who brought the ravens to Greywater Watch? 

[Free Northman Reborn]

21 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Weeeel now. You be not answering any of me questions. Tis okee dokey. I'll try to answer some of yours.

The topic is, if I have my comprehension fully functioning, whether Maege's two daughters are with her and if they are with her where are they. Am I doing okay so far? Nothing is controversial unless you would like to make it so.

Why is the op questioning the whereabouts of said persons? Shits and giggles? Why am I wondering about said characters? Maege & Galbert disappeared once they entered that swamp and haven't been heard from. It is not clear that Maege's two daughters went with her.

The point of contention is why does Alyannse think/say/state that her sisters are with Maege.

Because unless you can provide me with a quote that it happened I think that it was merely gossip Davos heard.

I'm not sure about Torhenn Square but the ironborn were defeated at DW and Theon delivered the dead and dying from MC to Ramsey.

Because the Fever River ends near MC. Now could you please tell me where the Dustin's and Ryswell's burned ironborn ships.

I dunna know what twisted ya drawers other than I said Davos heard a rumor so perhaps you could share why you said

Ok, to me the interesting part of this topic is what the status of Maege and her daugthers is now, and whether they are in contact with Alyssane and Lyanna at Bear Island. But either way, the point I make is that Maege is definitely in contact with her family at Bear Island.

As for Davos and the burnt Ironborn ships. I still don't understand what makes you doubt this. The Ironborn would have been navigating up and down the Fever River throughout this campaign. And the closest lords to them are the Dustins and Ryswells. It is pretty obvious that this indeed happened. Especially given the fact that the Dustins and Ryswells are then shown besieging the now trapped remaining Ironborn (minus their ships which have been burnt) at Moat Cailin.

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Who brought the ravens to Greywater Watch? 

How did Meera and Jojen communicate with Bran? They travelled to Winterfell on foot. How did they get to the Wall with Bran? They travelled with him on foot, undetected.

How did Theon and his Ironborn get to Winterfell from the West coast? They travelled overland, undetected.

How did Osha and her band get to hold Bran hostage a day's ride from Winterfell? They travelled from the Haunted Forest to Winterfell undetected.

How did Rickon and Osha get to Skagos? They apparently travelled across the entire North undetected.

How did Tycho Nestoris get from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell and back to Stannis's camp? He rode 300 miles pretty much without any problem, in the middle of a blizzard.

What makes it so unlikely that messengers could have travelled from Greywater Watch to Bear Island undetected, given all of the above examples? Ravens aren't even needed.

[Clegane'sPup]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Ok, to me the interesting part of this topic is what the status of Maege and her daugthers is now, and whether they are in contact with Alyssane and Lyanna at Bear Island. But either way, the point I make is that Maege is definitely in contact with her family at Bear Island.

I agree with you that Alyssane has had contact with Maege and for the life of me I can’t come up with a reasonable reason how it happened. If Maege returned to Bear Island she traveled a long distance over land or she went by sea. Where did she get a ship?

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for Davos and the burnt Ironborn ships. I still don't understand what makes you doubt this. The Ironborn would have been navigating up and down the Fever River throughout this campaign. And the closest lords to them are the Dustins and Ryswells. It is pretty obvious that this indeed happened. Especially given the fact that the Dustins and Ryswells are then shown besieging the now trapped remaining Ironborn (minus their ships which have been burnt) at Moat Cailin.

Vic took the fleet with him when he left MC. The ironborn thing is a bit off topic. To save space the reason I think that what Davos heard is a rumor is in the reveal tab. There is no mention of problems and Kenning is not a ship captain. It appears to me that Vic took his ships with him when he left. The ironborn were told to hold until Vic returned.
 

Spoiler

 

c. 24A Clash of Kings - Theon II

"Victarion," Lord Balon said to his brother, "the main thrust shall fall to you. When my sons have struck their blows, Winterfell must respond. You should meet small opposition as you sail up Saltspear and the Fever River. At the headwaters, you will be less than twenty miles from Moat Cailin.

c.18 A Feast for Crows - The Iron Captain

But when the Damphair's summons came, the call to kingsmoot, then all was changed. Aeron speaks with the Drowned God's voice, Victarion reminded himself, and if the Drowned God wills that I should sit the Seastone Chair . . . The next day he gave command of Moat Cailin to Ralf Kenning and set off overland for the Fever River where the Iron Fleet lay amongst the reeds and willows. Rough seas and fickle winds had delayed him, but only one ship had been lost, and he was home.

 

Maege and Galbart in SoS went to find Reed before the RW. Robb’s commands were that Reed was to meet him on the first day of the new year [300].

Robett was put upon a ship in SoS and didn’t reappear until Davos heard rumors that he was seeking men at White Harbor in DwD.

It would seem to me there is some hanky panky going on in the Neck. Cat received and sent Eddard’s bones in CoK. That was way before Robb sent Maege & Galbrat to Reed. Makes me wonder why Lady Dustin made that remark while she was in the crypts with Theon.

I’m yammering because sometimes questions bring up ideas and sometimes ideas bring forth fruit. I don’t know where Maege, her girls and Galbart are. Robett turned up. I guess the others will too, unless they are dead.

The below is Davos gathering his information.

 

Quote

 

c.15 A Dance with Dragons - Davos II

Other tidings were of greater interest. Robett Glover was in the city and had been trying to raise men, with little success. Lord Manderly had turned a deaf ear to his pleas. White Harbor was weary of war, he was reported to have said. That was bad. The Ryswells and the Dustins had surprised the ironmen on the Fever River and put their longships to the torch. That was worse. And now the Bastard of Bolton was riding south with Hother Umber to join them for an attack on Moat Cailin. "The Whoresbane his own self," claimed a riverman who'd just brought a load of hides and timber down the White Knife, "with three hundred spearmen and a hundred archers.

 

So I have to ask myself, is there a plan afoot and is Reed a party to it. As people have mentioned, ravens supposedly can’t find Greywater Watch. Since Martin doesn't want to let loose of Howland's knowledge I don't know what is happening in the Neck or Greywater Watch.

Those who would like to do so please chime in. LM is a gentle soul, but...

[Nittanian]

ASOS Catelyn V

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"Succession squabbles or no, the ironborn are not such fools as to abandon Moat Cailin," said Lady Maege.

"No," Robb admitted. "Victarion will leave the best part of his garrison, I'd guess. Every man he takes will be one less man we need to fight, however. And he will take many of his captains, count on that. The leaders. He will need such men to speak for him if he hopes to sit the Seastone Chair."

AFFC The Iron Captain:

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Aeron speaks with the Drowned God's voice, Victarion reminded himself, and if the Drowned God wills that I should sit the Seastone Chair . . . The next day he gave command of Moat Cailin to Ralf Kenning and set off overland for the Fever River where the Iron Fleet lay amongst the reeds and willows. Rough seas and fickle winds had delayed him, but only one ship had been lost, and he was home.

Grief and Iron Vengeance were close behind as Iron Victory passed the headland. Behind came Hardhand, Iron Wind, Grey Ghost, Lord Quellon, Lord Vickon, Lord Dagon, and the rest, nine-tenths of the Iron Fleet, sailing on the evening tide in a ragged column that extended back long leagues. The sight of their sails filled Victarion Greyjoy with content. No man had ever loved his wives half as well as the Lord Captain loved his ships.

ADWD Davos II

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The Ryswells and the Dustins had surprised the ironmen on the Fever River and put their longships to the torch. 

So, Victarion leaves Moat Cailin with Ralf Kenning and brings nine-tenths of the Iron Fleet with him back to the Iron Islands, as Robb expected. The Dustins and Ryswells then destroy the longships which remain behind in the Fever River, allowing Ramsay's host to more easily besiege Moat Cailin.

[bemused]

On 2/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Lara and Jor-El rode south with their mum... (Cat,Clash 51)

Aha, and oho ... I'd forgotten that (and Mormont's comment to Jon) or read past them, but they clarify some things for me... I was too tired to say more last night and planned to come back with more today. I was torn between Bear Island and  White Harbor (somewhere on Manderly lands) as their location, now I'm torn between WH and GWW.. (I'll come back to this)

On 2/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

How would Maege and Galbart know they could trust Barbrey? Overland they only would have had time to travel to the northwest once and then back, right?

If they didn't always know (and they might not have), I think Howland would know and Manderly would know that she was to be trusted, and both of their lands border on hers. I didn't mean to imply multiple trips for Maege and Galbart, just that they could have gone in more than one direction. It all comes down to communications again, which I'll say more about at the end.

Re: Robb probably liaising with Howland..

On 2/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Isn't this just a guess? I'm not saying you are wrong, but I don't recall any suggestion of such a meeting in the text. 

 Your "just a guess" vs. my "logical deduction".. I think it would be highly unusual, if not outright foolhardy, in a time of war, for the King to go out "scouting" alone, unless there was a very good reason.

I said .. "Robb lays out his battle plans at this council. He is very certain of what part Howland is to play, which suggests he has been liaising with Howland's representatives (or even Howland himself ?)"

On 2/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Howland Reed was one of Eddard’s most trusted bannermen, and he would obviously be opposed to Greyjoy occupation. Why wouldn't Robb be very confident? 

On 2/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

he very reasonably expected to defeat the Ironborn at Moat Cailin, and his destination was Winterfell. I wouldn't think the king would stuff his royal proclamations in his pocket. They would be kept by a steward in the rear. 

Of course Robb would have confidence in Howland. What I was getting at was, he seems certain of the fine logistical details.. that Howland will be watching for Maege and Galbart .. that he will be ready to guide Robb's contingent (with their horses) through his lands, and that such a safe path exists..and so on. Working these things out would require discussion. We don't see any discussion, but we do see Robb riding out "scouting" alone.. When else would these arrangements have been made?

As to the second, Robb may have reasonable expectations of succeeding, but his whole reason for writing the document was that he knew there was a real chance he could be killed. Jeyne knew too, to judge by her riding after him for a last tearful farewell. He may have shared his thoughts with her, up to a point, but he wouldn't leave her without proof of his final decision.(Don't forget he hadn't yet fully sounded out Cat,or taken steps to keep her from opposing his wishes.)

I don't think either Robb (or George) would put such a valuable document in the hands of some unnamed ,unseen steward after all the thought and work that was put into it.

On 2/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Jeyne is in Lannister hands. How did Brynden Tully take what we are calling the will out of Riverrun when he swam under the gate and down the river? In a Ziplock? 

There is some room to doubt they have Jeyne. Maybe, maybe not (I can't decide).. I'm not just talking about the question of the width of her hips, but the fact that her sister came with her to RR, and is not noticed .. not even mentioned by either Sybell or Jaime (though I believe all of Sybell's other children are mentioned). It's curious, but it could go either way.

Brynden could have used a leather pouch or tube encased in wax, or tar, or any of the materials we used to use to make a watertight seal, before we had Ziplocs.

On 2/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am not sure what you are saying here? Yes, the clans and Alysanne have allied with Stannis. What does that tell us about where Maege and Galbart are? 

Yes stories and information could pass through encounters you mentioned. News of the red wedding, at least different versions of what might have happened, have been discussed. But I formation about Robb's heirs and possible strategic moves would be a bit more sensitive, don't you think? I mean, before the clandestine visits to the privy at Winterfell, how would Manderly have communicated his intention to bring Rickon? And if Manderly knows that Jon was Robb's chosen successor why does he call Rickon his liege lord? 

Yeah, sorry - that was where I had to quit, finished or not, to save my hands.. 

Re: communications, I think probably as soon as Theon took WF and certainly by the time Ramsay sacked it, the northern leaders would have made a point of sending couriers along the existing lines of communication, clandestinely, where necessary. A network could be built fairly rapidly - e.g. A trusts B, but not C and D .. A sends important news to B .. maybe B agrees C is not trustworthy, but knows D is, and so relays the message to D .. etc. We've been given some important points of connection : Clans<->Umber<->Manderly. ... Looking at the map, another logical point of connection would be Wull<->Mormont.

Everyone in the north would know pretty quickly that Ramsay sacked WF. The Liddle tells us..

    There's squids in the wolfswood, and flayed men ride the kingsroad asking after strangers."
The Reeds exchanged a look. "Flayed men?" said Jojen.
"The Bastard's boys, aye. He was dead, but now he's not. And paying good silver for wolfskins, a man hears, and maybe gold for word of certain other walking dead." He looked at Bran when he said that, and at Summer stretched out beside him.

Liddles were not the only watchers Bran and Summer noticed on their way north. Additionally, anyone sent to survey the scene at WF could easily have noticed the same clues as Osha and Bran.. At first Bran thinks that Theon has done it..

"No. Look." She pointed across the yard with her spear. "That's one of his ironmen. And there. And that's Greyjoy's warhorse, see? The black one with the arrows in him." She moved among the dead, frowning. "And here's Black Lorren." He had been hacked and cut so badly that his beard looked a reddish-brown now. "Took a few with him, he did." Osha turned over one of the other corpses with her foot. "There's a badge. A little man, all red."

"The flayed man of the Dreadfort," said Bran.

Furthermore, we know from Stannis' letter to Jon that there were survivors from the battle outside the gates of WF, and I simply cannot believe that he was the first person they flocked to. (Knowledge of the red wedding would only have intensified their activity)

The Clans are the first know that Bran survived, and the Umbers/ Manderly seem to have picked up Osha and Rickon..  I believe the first part of Wex's story - how he hid and that he set out following Osha and Rickon, but I don't believe he could have followed them for long without being discovered. Not with Osha's skills and Shaggy's senses. I think they all were taken in by Manderly/Umbers, probably by men attached to the ship-building project. Wex may know they're on Skagos, but not because he followed them there.

Robett Glover is an ideal way for Manderly to secretly make contact with other lords. He's in WH "legitimately" .. supposedly trying to raise men to help him retake DM . He can come and go and be seen talking to all kinds of people without raising suspicion, so I think Manderly's intentions can be passed on at any time.

I don't think he needs Davos to retrieve Rickon. Umbers could see to getting him when the time comes. I think it's a way of keeping Davos out of the way of the northern resistance and to keep from giving an outright refusal to Stannis. Once again I think Manderly GRRM is being tricky with language.. He says ..  Smuggle me back my liege lord, and I will take Stannis Baratheon as my king. ...He doesn't actually call Rickon his leige lord, although I'm sure he knows Davos will take it that way. I'm sure he has no intention of taking Stannis as his king ...what if his liege lord doesn't accept Stannis as his king ?

(I have a wee bit more, but I'll have to come back.)

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Ok, to me the interesting part of this topic is what the status of Maege and her daugthers is now, and whether they are in contact with Alyssane and Lyanna at Bear Island. But either way, the point I make is that Maege is definitely in contact with her family at Bear Island.

As for Davos and the burnt Ironborn ships. I still don't understand what makes you doubt this. The Ironborn would have been navigating up and down the Fever River throughout this campaign. And the closest lords to them are the Dustins and Ryswells. It is pretty obvious that this indeed happened. Especially given the fact that the Dustins and Ryswells are then shown besieging the now trapped remaining Ironborn (minus their ships which have been burnt) at Moat Cailin.

How did Meera and Jojen communicate with Bran? They travelled to Winterfell on foot. How did they get to the Wall with Bran? They travelled with him on foot, undetected.

How did Theon and his Ironborn get to Winterfell from the West coast? They travelled overland, undetected.

How did Osha and her band get to hold Bran hostage a day's ride from Winterfell? They travelled from the Haunted Forest to Winterfell undetected.

How did Rickon and Osha get to Skagos? They apparently travelled across the entire North undetected.

How did Tycho Nestoris get from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell and back to Stannis's camp? He rode 300 miles pretty much without any problem, in the middle of a blizzard.

What makes it so unlikely that messengers could have travelled from Greywater Watch to Bear Island undetected, given all of the above examples? Ravens aren't even needed.

I agree. Keep in mind, though, that it would take at least six weeks to travel overland from Moat Cailin to the Bay of Ice. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I agree with you that Alyssane has had contact with Maege and for the life of me I can’t come up with a reasonable reason how it happened. If Maege returned to Bear Island she traveled a long distance over land or she went by sea. Where did she get a ship?

The Mallisters took them in on longships. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, bemused said:

I think Howland would know and Manderly would know that [Barbrey Dustin] was to be trusted, and both of their lands border on hers.

Why? Just a hunch? 

1 hour ago, bemused said:

Re: communications, I think probably as soon as Theon took WF and certainly by the time Ramsay sacked it, the northern leaders would have made a point of sending couriers along the existing lines of communication, clandestinely, where necessary. A network could be built fairly rapidly - e.g. A trusts B, but not C and D .. A sends important news to B .. maybe B agrees C is not trustworthy, but knows D is, and so relays the message to D .. etc. We've been given some important points of connection : Clans<->Umber<->Manderly. ... Looking at the map, another logical point of connection would be Wull<->Mormont.

Everyone in the north would know pretty quickly that Ramsay sacked WF. The Liddle tells us..

    There's squids in the wolfswood, and flayed men ride the kingsroad asking after strangers."
The Reeds exchanged a look. "Flayed men?" said Jojen.
"The Bastard's boys, aye. He was dead, but now he's not. And paying good silver for wolfskins, a man hears, and maybe gold for word of certain other walking dead." He looked at Bran when he said that, and at Summer stretched out beside him.

Liddles were not the only watchers Bran and Summer noticed on their way north. Additionally, anyone sent to survey the scene at WF could easily have noticed the same clues as Osha and Bran.. At first Bran thinks that Theon has done it..

"No. Look." She pointed across the yard with her spear. "That's one of his ironmen. And there. And that's Greyjoy's warhorse, see? The black one with the arrows in him." She moved among the dead, frowning. "And here's Black Lorren." He had been hacked and cut so badly that his beard looked a reddish-brown now. "Took a few with him, he did." Osha turned over one of the other corpses with her foot. "There's a badge. A little man, all red."

"The flayed man of the Dreadfort," said Bran.

Furthermore, we know from Stannis' letter to Jon that there were survivors from the battle outside the gates of WF, and I simply cannot believe that he was the first person they flocked to. (Knowledge of the red wedding would only have intensified their activity)

The Clans are the first know that Bran survived, and the Umbers/ Manderly seem to have picked up Osha and Rickon..  I believe the first part of Wex's story - how he hid and that he set out following Osha and Rickon, but I don't believe he could have followed them for long without being discovered. Not with Osha's skills and Shaggy's senses. I think they all were taken in by Manderly/Umbers, probably by men attached to the ship-building project. Wex may know they're on Skagos, but not because he followed them there.

Manderly was spoiling for a fight with Bolton since the Hornwood affair. Manderly's sphere of influence spread out from White Harbor up the White Knife to Cerwyn and across to Widow's Watch, so we can presume that Wyman was keeping the leaders of those houses advised of his interests. A look at the map shows why Mors and Hothor might have been predisposed to back Manderly against Bolton in the wake of this conflict, and their cooperation building ships might have brought them closer together. Before the red wedding, though, I don't see Wyman's anti-Bolton extending further than that. 

It does seem obvious that the Northmen know that Ramsay sacked Winterfell, and the Roose and Walder betrayed Robb, even though many are not willing to say as much openly to the wrong person. 

The Liddle man (whom I suspect is none other than the Middle Liddle) who met Bran was the only person we know of who came into direct contact with Bran et al. I have to assume that the Liddle man protected Bran's secret, and the fact that Bran, and presumably Rickon, has not been widely circulated. 

[Lord Wraith]

13 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Who brought the ravens to Greywater Watch? 

Why wouldn't there be ravens at Greywater Watch?

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Why wouldn't there be ravens at Greywater Watch?

Cause they cannot find it, and there are no maesters to keep them. 

[Lord Wraith]

18 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Cause they cannot find it, and there are no maesters to keep them. 

Right I forgot Meera says they don't have maesters.

[Clegane'sPup]

18 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The Mallisters took them in on longships. 

 

I’m probably gonna regret replying to this for numerous reasons but here goes --- for fun and for free.

Maege & her girls arrive at Bear Island. Galbart followed her on the second longship. Maege upon arriving home told Alysanne to take a gaggle of fishing boats and go burn the ironborn ships that Maege eyeballed while she was on her way home to Bear Island.

Surprise!!! Stannis & the northern clans happened to accidentally bump into Alysanne and her men while chasing Asha & her men who were on retreat from DW.

Now that DW is clear the Maester of DW sends word to Maege. Maege in turn tells Galbart that he is safe to take a fishing sloop home.¹

Galbart arrives back at DW.

 

Now what?

¹ Galbart had to take a fishing sloop back to DW because after the Mallister longships delivered Maege, the girls and Galbart to Bear Island they took their longships back to Seagard.

[Lost Melnibonean]

After about three days of considering the Great Northern Conspiracy, I added this to the OP...

Also about two years ago, I suggested this about the wrongway rangers...

In Jon II, Dance 7 we have Richard Horpe and Justin Massey depart Castle Black, heading south for destination(s) unknown. We see them return in Jon IV, Dance 17, but we are never told where they went. I believe Stannis dispatched them to treat with Houses Umber and Karstark.

Keep in mind that We learn that Stannis has dispatched his Hand to treat with Manderly. The only positive responses he received from the northern lords were from Mors Umber and Arnolf Karstark. So it would make sense to send two captains to treat with those two houses.

Upon their return we learn that Arnolf will fight for Stannis, as will Mors Umber but not Hothor Umber. We also learn that Arnolf is urging Stannis to march on the Deadfort while Ramsay marches on Moat Cailin. We later learn that this was a trap, and we know that Arnolf and Hothor meet with Ramsay at the Dreadfort, apparently to plan it. So Reek I, Dance 12 sould precede Jon II, Dance 7 on the actual timeline of events. 

And last year, I asked what Mance and Melisandre were up to when Melisandre convinced Jon to send Mance after Arya...

Apparently, Melisandre wanted Jon to send Mance to rescue his sister in order to gain Jon’s trust, but the especially curious issue here was that Melisandre saw Arya riding north, east of Long Lake, and Mance said he had a ploy in mind, asking for a handful of spearwives to help him, suggesting he knew that he would be going to Winterfell not the eastern shore of Long Lake. Later we found out with the arrival of Alys Karstark at Castle Black, that Mance did not even bother to look for Arya, and Jon began to suspect that Melisandre had some other task for Mance. He ended up thinking about Melisandre’s secret agenda at least twice more.

Disguised as Abel, an echo of Mance’s hero, Bael the Bard, the Mance wanted to know how Theon captured Winterfell. Clearly, Mance was attempting to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell. He also wanted Theon to show him the crypts. While Mance was apparently unable to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell by some trick, his spearwives began murdering men to fan the flames of animosity between House Frey and the Northmen, especially House Manderly. Presumably, Mance intended to hide in the crypts as Bael had done.

But why was Mance so eager, desperate even, to help the presumed Arya to escape? He did not seem to care about Theon, but he needed Theon to get the presumed Arya out. Did he believe that he had stumbled upon Arya Stark at Winterfell, and that he needed to get her out of the castle to fulfill Melisandre’s vision to foster good relations with Jon and to promote fidelity between the Free Folk and the North? Is that why he apparently sacrificed himself to free the presumed Arya? Theon was quite convinced that Abel would be caught and flayed by Ramsay, and that fate was apparently confirmed in the pink letter

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and in the Theon spoiler chapter from Winds, the events of which were confirmed to have occurred before Jon received the pink letter,

and in The Dornishman's Wife. 

Interestingly, one of the spearwives, Rowan, seemed to hold Theon in great contempt. This alone would not have been suspect, but she also took great umbrage at Theon’s use of House Stark’s words, suggesting she was actually a daughter of the North rather than a native of the Free Folk, although there did seem to be a grudging respect of, or awe for, House Stark among the Free Folk. Rowan, tall and skinny, too lean and leathery to be called pretty, but attractive with auburn hair, could very well have been the daughter Mors lost during a wilding raid. 

Perhaps Mance stoped at Last Hearth with Rowan on his way to Winterfell. Perhaps Rowan convinced her father that he should not be demanding Mance’s skull for a drinking cup after all. Mors later arrived at Winterfell. He did not attack, but he started blowing war horns, presumably to instill fear in the defenders, but possibly to alert agents on the inside, and notice that was precisely when Mance decided it was time to bug out.

Now about that Great Northern Conspiracy...

King Robb Stark arrives at the Twins about three weeks to one month before the first day of the first moon of the 300th year since Aegon’s Conquest…

If we assume that Robb intended to march three days after the wedding, and that Moat Cailin was at least 500 miles from the Twins, we can assume that Robb expected to be in position to attack Moat Cailin within one month of the red wedding.

At this time, Howland Reed is at Greywater Watch, waiting to guide Robb through the Neck to recapture Moat Cailin and to reopen the North to Robb’s host. It is possible, even likely, that Hallis Mollen and a small detachment of men from Winterfell are there as well, with the bones of Eddard Stark.

Lord Roose Bolton is at the Twins with Robb. His natural son Ramsay Snow is at the Dreadfort, awaiting Robb’s judgment. We should assume that Jonelle Cerwyn is under Roose’s protection since her father told Robb that she would accompany him south, and since he was mortally wounded fighting under Roose’s command at the Battle of the Green Fork. Ramsay has claimed Hornwood by right of a forced marriage to the Late Lord Halys’s widow, the late Lady Donella Manderly. Lady Barbrey Dustin is at Barrowton. She is Roose’s goodsister by his previous marriage. Lord Rodrik Ryswell is at the Rills. Rodrik’s surviving daughter is Lady Barbrey Dustin. His other daughter was Lord Roose Bolton’s second wife. Rodrik’s three sons are with him at the Rills. The only surviving son of Lord Rickard Karstark, who was executed by Robb at Riverrun, Harrion Karstark is held captive by Randyll Tarly at Maidenpool. His sister Alys remains at the Twins with her uncle, Arnolf and his sons and grandsons. The young Lady Eddara Tallhart is held captive by Dagmer Cleftjaw at Torrhen’s Square. Her aunt Berena Hornwood and Berena’s son and daughter are also held captive at Torrhen’s Square.

Bolton has come to blows with Manderly over the Hornwood succession issue.

Lord Wyman Manderly is at White Harbor. His eldest son Wylis is held captive by Gregor Clegane at Harrenhal. Wylis’s wife, Leona Woolfield, and their two daughters are at White Harbor. Wyman’s younger son Wendel will soon be slain at the red wedding. Lady Lyessa Flint is at Widow’s Watch. She is a Manderly ally. Her son Robin is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be slain at the red wedding. Lord Ondrew Locke is at Oldcastle. He is a Manderly ally. Donnell Locke, who appears to be Ondrew’s son, is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be killed at the red wedding. Galbart Glover, Master of Deepwood Motte is at Greywater Watch, waiting for Robb. Galbart’s brother Robett is at White Harbor, presumably waiting to join Robb’s host after it recaptures Moat Cailin. Robett’s wife, Sybelle Locke, and their two children are held captive at Deepwood Motte by Asha Greyjoy. Also held captive at Deepwood Motte is Glover’s ward, Larence Snow, natural son of the late Lord Halys Hornwood. A sister, cousin or aunt of Galbart was Jorah Mormont’s first wife. Lady Maege Mormont of Bear Island is with Galbart at Greywater Watch, waiting for Robb. Her Daughter Dacey is with Robb. She will soon be slain at the red wedding. Maege’s daughters Lyra and Jorelle are with Maege. Maege’s daughter Alysanne is at Bear Island with her daughter, son, and youngest sister, Lyanna. Manderly and Umber have been working together to build a fleet. The Greatjon, Lord Jon Umber is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be imprisoned after the red wedding. His son, the Smalljon, will soon be killed during the red wedding. His uncles Mors and Hoster are at Last Hearth.

We know that some Riverlanders and, presumably, some Northmen escape the red wedding, so I think we can assume that some Northmen may have tried to go up the causeway. Within a couple of weeks, then, news of the red wedding would have reached Howland, Maege, and Galbart at Greywater Watch. We should assume that word has already spread to the principal houses of the north by raven, and that within a month of the new year, everyone of consequence should know of the red wedding. Anybody north of the Neck with half a brain should be able to determine, or at least suspect, that Roose and Walder conspired with Tywin Lannister to cast Robb down.

So, on one side we have Bolton, Dustin, Ryswell, and Karstark, with soft support from Cerwyn, Hornwood, and Tallhart. On the other side we have Manderly, Flint, and Locke, with Glover, Mormont, and possibly, Umber. At this point, I don’t see any of these great houses looking to garner material support from the crannogmen, the mountain clans, or the Skagossons. And due to operation security, nobody north of the Neck should know that Maege and Galbart are at Greywater Watch.

Although we never encounter him directly in the story, we are led to believe that Howland is very loyal to House Stark and a close follower of the Old Gods, and Frey is an enemy of the crannogmen, so, we can assume that Howland will seek to oppose Bolton and Frey. The key to linking Greywater Watch and White Harbor is Galbart. Galbart knows that Robett is in White Harbor.

So, does Galbart reach out to his brother at White Harbor? It would take Galbart about two weeks to reach White Harbor from the Neck. Presumably, Wyman brings Robett into his plan. If Galbart goes to White Harbor, Robett surely tells Galbart what Wyman is up to. Does Maege go with Galbart to White Harbor? Some have suggested that Manderly uses Galbart and Maege as envoys, but I don’t think either would be so willing to do this while the Ironmen occupy Deepwood Motte and hold Glovers captive. Wyman appears to know who is on his side, and we will see evidence at Barrowton and Winterfell to suggest that Wyman courts other prominent Northmen on his own. Galbart must be preoccupied with his own seat, and Maege also has to be concerned about the state of affairs in the northwest. But if they do return to the northwest, why do they remain covert?

At the other end of the Kingsroad, we have Mance Rayder attacking Castle Black and King Stannis Baratheon arriving to break the siege. A couple of weeks later, and Jon Snow is elected Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. Over the next few weeks, Karstark feigns fealty to Stannis, (but the newly legitimized Ramsay Bolton hosts Arnolf Karstark, who is scheming to seize Karhold from Harrion, and Hother Umber at the Dreadfort), and Stannis burns the presumed Mance. Assuming Galbart and Maege have gone to White Harbor, Maege will now be able to contact Bear Island by raven. Roose is not yet a threat to Bear Island, and given Lyanna’s response to Stannis, I think we can assume that Maege tells her daughters not to pay homage to Stannis.

And then, Davos arrives in White Harbor. By this time, news of the red wedding and Stannis breaking the wildings at the Wall would have spread throughout the North. The soon-to-be-pies are already in White Harbor threatening Wyman Manderly, and the commonly held view is that Wyman would join Bolton and Frey. A wedding has been agreed to between Manderly and Frey, and Gregor Clegane’s men still hold Wylis Manderly hostage at Harrenhal. Wyman has built the fleet with Umber, and he is raising men. Robett is already in the city, and he has been trying to raise men too (presumably to take back Deepwood Motte from the Ironmen, otherwise the Freys surely would have demanded his head for treason), but unsuccessfully.

Meanwhile, Dustin and Ryswell have already burned the remaining ships of the Iron Fleet on the Fever River, and Ramsay and Hothor are already riding south with Hornwood and Cerwyn to join them at Moat Cailin. Some remaining Tallhart men will join Bolton too, but the Tallhartlings and Berena are still held captive by Dagmar Cleftjaw at Torrhen’s Square.

Back at Castle Black, Mors has pledged to aid Stannis so long as he is not forced to fight Hothor, and Arnolf has encouraged Stannis to attack the Dreadfort, apparently, so he and Bolton can crush Stannis outside the walls. Even without knowing of Arnolf’s treachery yet, Jon counsels Stannis to avoid the possible trap, and to liberate Deepwood Motte instead, winning the mountain clans to his cause on the way. Now, keep in mind that Mormont should not know about this due to operation security, but it will take time, perhaps two months, for Stannis to court the mountain clans and to liberate Deepwood Motte.

About two weeks later, Davos is presumably executed by Manderly at White Harbor. And Jaime Lannister has Ronnet Connington deliver Wylis to Maidenpool and on to White Harbor. The travel time by ship should take less than a week. Davos is then dispatched to Skagos. We should expect him to arrive at Skagos within a week. Unless he encounters difficulty, we Davos could return to White Harbor with Rickon within a month or less.

Nearly four months after the Red Wedding, Reek helps Ramsay liberate Moat Cailin, and Roose returns to the North. By this time, it is possible, that Davos has returned from Skagos with Rickon, or at least, that Davos has sent word back to White Harbor that he has Rickon. In any event, Manderly departs to join Roose’s host. Perhaps, at this time, Maege sends a bird from White Harbor to Bear Island and instructs Alysanne to liberate Deepwood Motte. Perhaps also, Glabart, Robett, Maege, Howland, and Hallis Mollen are with a second host of Northmen and Davos and Rickon.

Stannis takes Deepwood Motte shortly thereafter, and within a week or so, Jon agrees to send Mance after his presumed sister. About a couple of weeks after Reek helps Ramsay liberate Moat Cailin, Roose’s host arrives at Barrowton, and so does Wyman, along with a few pies for the coming nuptials. Roose learns that Stannis has left the Wall, and he realizes that he should seize Winterfell to lure Stannis into attacking him there to be trapped by Arnolf Karstark. About three weeks later, Ramsay weds the presumed Arya at Winterfell, and then Stannis finally departs from Deepwood Motte. Up north, Selyse, Tycho Nestoris, and Alys Karstark arrive at Castle Black.

A little more than six months have passed since the red wedding by the time Stannis arrives at the crofter’s village near Winterfell. In the meantime, the Northmen with Roose are becoming concerned over Ramsay’s treatment of the presumed Arya. Since Barrowton, Roose has known that he cannot trust Cerwyn and Tallhart and, presumably, Hornwood. Roose knows that Wyman plots betrayal, and he suspects that Hothor Umber may stand with Wyman. Then, we see Hothor talking quietly with Harwood Stout, who is sworn to Dustin. The George gives us a hint as to the coup-plotting Wyman might be about with the snowy lords described by Reek to include Wyman Manderly, Harwood Stout, Barbrey Dustin, and Hother Umber. Barbrey has Reek take her into the crypts, presumably to look up upon the Stark tombs, but she takes note of the missing swords that Bran et al. took from the crypts. This suggests that Barbrey could have been looking to substantiate whether Wyman already has Rickon.

Arnolf arrives at the crofter’s village less than two weeks after Stannis. And that’s when the mysterious murders begin at Winterfell. Within a few days, Mors Umber arrives, and immediately after Mors sounds his horns, Abel’s washerwomen compel Theon to meet with Mance Rayder, who has been asking about the crypts. The tension between Frey and Mandery boils over the next day, and Theon and Jeyne escape. Three days later, Mors takes them, along with Tycho and Asha’s men from Deepwood Motte to Stannis’s camp. In the Theon spoiler chapter, we see

Spoiler

Stannis learn of the Karstark plot, and we see that he intends to use the terrain to his advantage. We also see that he might be planning a ruse by faking his death.

Assuming Ramsay is the author of the so called pink letter, we can assume that Ramsay believes that Stannis is dead, and that Stannis’s host has been defeated. Ramsay has recovered or has been given Lightbringer, and he has beheaded and flayed Abel’s washerwomen. He has stuck Mance in a crow cage, but he may have left Mance alive. He believes that Stannis has sent the presumed Arya and Reek to Castle Black, and he wants them returned. He must know that Jon will recognize Jeyne Pool, and Theon is still a potentially valuable hostage. But we know that Stannis had no intention of sending Theon anywhere, which further suggests that Stannis has fooled Ramsay. Ramsay demands Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre, as well as Mance Rayder’s presumed son be turned over to him. Otherwise, he threatens to march on Castle Black. Ramsay has Jon in a tight spot since Jon has meddled in the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms, and Jon attempts to marshal the wildings, but, of course, Bowen Marsh has had enough.

How did the ruse at the crofter’s village play out? Has Ramsay killed Roose? Or is Roose still calling the shots? Will the snowy lords and their snowy sentinels cast Ramsay down and allow Stannis to enter the Winterfell? Are Galbart, Maege, Howland, and Hallis on the other side of Winterfell with Davos and Rickon? Will Selyse and Melisandre despair and burn Shireen? As Maester Aemon has said, the cold preserves, so there is no need for Jon to return immediately so as to avoid looking likely Catelyn did after three days. How long will he be out?

[kissdbyfire]

@Lost Melnibonean, is this pure speculation or do you have a reason to believe it is the case?

"Galbart knows that Robett is in White Harbor."

[Lost Melnibonean]

29 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@Lost Melnibonean, is this pure speculation or do you have a reason to believe it is the case?

"Galbart knows that Robett is in White Harbor."

Catelyn notes that Galbart is relieved to learn that his brother has been put on a ship at Duskendale. White Harbor is the most logical destination, no?  

[kissdbyfire]

9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Catelyn notes that Galbart is relieved to learn that his brother has been put on a ship at Duskendale. White Harbor is the most logical destination, no?  

It is but that doesn't mean much. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

15 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It is but that doesn't mean much. 

it does if there is a link between Greywater Watch and White Harbor. 

[kissdbyfire]

Not sure what you mean. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

21 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Not sure what you mean. 

If Galbart looks for Robett at White Harbor we can link Greywater to White Harbor. Otherwise, why would the Stark loyalists reach out to a house that is openly aligning with Bolton and Frey? And why would the Lord of White Harbor, Warden of the White Knife, Shield of the Faith, Defender of the Dispossessed, Lord Marshal of the Mander, and Knight of the Order of the Green Hand bother to reach out to the frog eaters?