Preston Jacobs and the Purple Wedding

[Frey family reunion]

29 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

 

Dontos' reference to Joffrey is meaningless, because Sansa was being kept in the dark of the planned assassination, so obviously he wasn't going to tell her Joffrey would be dead at that point.

As for the rest, Sansa was not going to be married prior to the Purple Wedding until Tywin found out about the Tyrells' engagement.  And there's no reason at all that anybody Sansa was married to would need to be killed in that manner.  Had Littlefinger just had Sansa escape and not framed Tyrion for killing Joffrey, Tyrion could easily have been killed any number of ways afterward; Littlefinger's had people poisoned before.

How is that a question?  We know that for certain, from Sansa's own thoughts.  She hadn't the slightest idea.

But was she kept in the dark?  We know she was told the necklace was "justice" and   "Vengeance" for her father.  And then we leave Sansa's POV, so we don't know what was told next.  

Then let's look to see what happens when Sansa flees the wedding:

Quote

The sight of it had been too terrible to watch, and she had turned and fled, sobbing.  Lady Tanda had been fleeing as well.  "You have a good heart, my lady," she said to Sansa.  "Not every maid would weep so for a man who set her aside and wed her to a dwarf."

A good heart.  I have a good heart.  Hysterical laughter rose up her gullet, but Sansa choked it back down.

Then as she is changing clothes her eyes immediately go to her hair net

Quote

She felt so numb and dreamy.  My skin has turned to porcelain, to ivory, to steel.  Her hand moved stiffly, awkwardly, as if they had never let down her hair before.  For a moment she wished Shae was there, to help her with the net.

When she pulled it free, her long auburn hair cascaded down her back and across her shoulders.  The web of spun silver hung from her fingers, the fine metal glimmering softly, the stones black in the moonlight.  Black amethysts from Asshai.  One of them was missing.  Sansa lifted the net for a closer look.  There was a smudge in the silver socket where the stone had fallen out.

A sudden terror filled her.  Her heart hammered against her ribs, and for an instant she held her breath.  Why am I so scared, it's only an amethyst, a black amethyst from Asshai, no more than that.  It must have been loose in the setting, that's all.  It was loose and it fell out, and now it's lying somewhere in the throne room, or in the yard, unless....

Ser Dontos had said the hair net was magic, that it would take her home.  He told her she must wear it tonight at Jeffrey's wedding feast.  The silver wire stretched tight across her knuckles.  Her thumb rubbed back and forth against the hole where the stone had been.

Interesting that Sansa's current thoughts only go back to Dontos telling her that the necklace was magic and it would take her home.  She "fails" to remember that he also told her that the necklace was vengeance and justice for her father.

I contend that it's possible that Sansa didn't "fail" to remember but instead she is purposely suppressing it and she is suppressing to herself what she had done only moments before.

The hysterical laughter that she choked down is her suppression of the enormity of what she has done.

Now let's go back to the wedding, where we only have Tyrion's POV:

Quote

Sansa tasted a spoonful of soup and pushed the bowl away.  "Not to your liking, my lady?" Tyrion asked.

"There's to be so much, my lord.  I have a little tummy."  She fiddled nervously with her hair and looked down the table to where Joffrey sat with his Tyrell queen.

She knows what she has in her hair, and she's debating with herself as to what she should or is capable of doing.  I think her final decision comes when she realizes that the Lannisters broke Ice down into their two swords.  That's when she comes to the realization that she has to go through with it.  Now whether she meant to poison Tyrion to free herself from the Lannisters, or whether she meant to poison Joffrey is another question.

[Colonel Green]

Just now, Frey family reunion said:

I contend that it's possible that Sansa didn't "fail" to remember but instead she is purposely suppressing it and she is suppressing to herself what she had done only moments before.

That also doesn't make any sense (even apart from the literary issue of having Sansa make such a gigantic leap in characterization off-page and then forget about it), because if Sansa was doing that, Dontos and Littlefinger would both be confused by her somehow forgetting that she was involved in the plan, but neither (most importantly Dontos, who isn't the sharpest tack) misses a beat when she shows no understanding of what's going on.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Littlefinger's ship was moored at a specific anchorage so that the rowboat could find it.  Now you're suggesting he sailed the ship closer to the city for...some reason, when if he was willing to do that, he could as easily have arranged to pick up the rowboat much closer to shore.

Much like the proposals that there was some other agent who rowed to the ship in advance of Sansa's, these are not things that Littlefinger would have any reason to arrange in advance, unless you're trying to contrive reasons for him to hear the bells ringing or otherwise know of Joffrey's death when that wasn't his plan.  But he has no reason to take such steps.

Lol, moored? Out in the middle of the bay? So far out that you can't even see land? Moored to what?

If I were Littlefinger and I had an operation of this magnitude in the works, you bet your boots I would have someone other than drunken Dontos Hollard as my eyes and ears and a means to learn exactly what is happening in the Red Keep just in case I have to split for Braavos at a moment's notice.

Rowing so far out into the bay ensures that they can make their escape without drawing the attention of royal warships (yes, there are a few left) and that no one can possibly witness a fair maid with red hair climbing aboard a trading galley on the night of Sansa's disappearance.

[ravenous reader]

10 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Thoughts in response to PJ's video:

First, he dropped a quote I'd never seen before:

Quote

Maesters Ballabar and Frenken opened the second day of trial. They had opened King Joffrey's noble corpse as well, they swore, and found no morsel of pigeon pie nor any other food lodged in the royal throat. "It was poison that killed him, my lords," said Ballabar, as Frenken nodded gravely.

-- Tyrion IX, A Storm of Swords

I'll admit, this bummed me out, because it crushes my pet theory, that Joffrey wasn't poisoned at all. But then I found a straw to clutch at:

Quote

Maesters Ballabar and Frenken opened the second day of trial. They had opened King Joffrey's noble corpse as well, they swore, and found no morsel of pigeon pie nor any other food lodged in the royal throat. "It was poison that killed him, my lords," said Ballabar, as Frenken nodded gravely.

"As well"? As well as who?

Now, I skimmed the chapter, and I could find no mention of anybody else performing an autopsy before the maesters Ballabar and Frenken. The only other mention I can find is from Tywin in Jaime VII:

Quote

"It was meant to appear as though he choked on a morsel of food, but I had his throat slit open and the maesters could find no obstruction."

Now - and like I said, I'm clutching at straws - to do something "as well" implies that the listener knows that somebody else has already done it.

In addition to that connotation of 'as well [as somebody else],' there might be a further interpretation, namely that the doctors conducted a procedure 'in addition [to something else]' --i.e. they specified that they conducted an autopsy in addition to the other investigations they had already concluded.  Remember, they are physicians acting as expert witnesses in a court of law who are keen to defend their diagnosis and uphold their reputations, so they need to demonstrate that they have covered all their bases and not left out anything which might be held against them, according to the best possible standards of known medical practice.  Seen in this context, it's possible they were just describing in detail all the procedures they had undertaken in order to reach the conclusion that Joffrey had been poisoned.  

The first procedure in any investigation of suspicious death is a gross inspection of the body -- one doesn't proceed directly to the scalpel and the saw! -- systematically doing a survey of the entire visible surface of the body, which would've included particular inspection of Joffrey's face, eyes, lips, oral cavity, upper pharynx for signs of poisoning (the purple color, etc.).  Thereafter, in order to be extra thorough, they opened his throat 'as well' in order to clinch their working diagnosis.  I don't think it necessarily means that someone else had conducted an autopsy prior to the examination of Maesters Ballabar and Frenken.  Also, it doesn't make sense to say they 'opened' Joffrey's throat if the throat had already been cut open by someone else!  A throat is not a door that can be opened and closed from the outside without a trace...Surely if that were the case, they would've reported something more along the lines of having confirmed the diagnosis as a second opinion to the one first made by their colleagues, with the caveat specifying that they had not been the ones to first open the throat, which might have had some bearing on the conclusions they were able to draw. How can one attest with certainty that there was nothing to be found in the throat if the throat had already been opened?  It would've also been important from their point of view to specify if they had found evidence of someone else tampering with the body, in order to protect themselves from being accused of having tampered with the body or suppressed evidence themselves in the murder investigation of a king (for which their own heads might be at stake).

On a side note:  Didn't Tywin's statement 'I had his throat slit open' strike you?  Did Tywin have something to do with Joffrey's death?  He always said he intended to teach him 'a sharp lesson,' after all!  

Quote

But the only prior mention is in Jaime's chapter. If "as well" isn't an authorial oversight, then perhaps it's a nod to the reader that whoever else had earlier performed an autopsy had already been mentioned in the story. And, as per my pet theory, when Tywin says he had the maesters do something, probably what he means is he gave Pycelle an order.

So, if Pycelle had time alone with the corpse, he could easily have removed food from the throat before getting the other maesters in to "verify" his results. Pet theory, still hanging on by a thread! (Apart from all the other problems with it.) Phew, that was close.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah I do think the 'two-autopsy' theory is stretching credulity!  

Quote

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

I do want to repeat something I said in the previous post:

Quote

I think there's room to doubt that Tyrion was set up as the fall guy. We can all agree that (1) Littlefinger arranged the jousting dwarves to (2) provoke conflict between Tyrion and Joffrey. But having provoked such a conflict, how can Littlefinger be certain how things will shake out? Joffrey could just as easily have ordered Tyrion out of the room as make him his cupbearer. And Tyrion could well have stormed out - as he very nearly did. So if Littlefinger was counting on Tyrion either (a) being accused of poisoning Joffrey, or (b) getting poisoned, then why would he do anything that risks Tyrion leaving the room?

Just to be clear: by this logic, not only is it unlikely that Littlefinger was setting Tyrion up as a patsy, but it's also unlikely that he intended to have him killed at all.

I've argued that Littlefinger's primary intention was not to kill anyone in particular.  Rather, he aimed to create a diversion so that he could seize control of Sansa, for which a murder conveniently fit into his plan, serving simultaneously to set her up as the patsy, so she'd be beholden to him and too scared for her life to think of turning to anyone else, once he had presented himself to her on a platter as her one and only saviour (and master).

From Olenna's perspective, however, she did want to have someone killed, or surely she would not have gone along with it; and that would've been Joffrey rather than Tyrion, no?  What would she have had against Tyrion, a grievance so burning that she would risk so much (that trick removing the stone from the hairnet and then dropping it without being seen in the wine and/or lemon cream was extremely risky)?

10 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I can agree that it's definitely the case at this point that Littlefinger is trying to convince Sansa she smuggled the poison into the feast. Whether this is true or not is yet to be conclusively determined.

But the thing about this question Littlefinger asks here is that it's got no wrong answer. Either somebody did, or somebody didn't. Whoever Sansa mentions, Littlefinger can pin the murder on them. And if she doesn't mention anybody at all, he can mention anybody he likes and say that they were good at sleight-of-hand. (If he's ever seen Butterbumps's act, he can pin on it him and still leave the Tyrells in the frame.) Imagine:

"I will wager you that at some point during the evening someone told you that your hair net was crooked and straightened it for you."

"Did they? I don't remember that."

"A good pickpocket can take the chain off a maester's neck without him realising." He smiled enigmatically. "You must pay more attention to your surroundings, Sansa. Did you at least notice that a stone was missing from the hair net?"

She had! She raised a hand to her mouth. "Mother's mercy... who was it, then?"

Anybody he feels like mentioning, darling.

Except it wasn't just anyone, since we have Tyrion's witnessed account that Olenna for one fiddled with Sansa's hairnet for quite a while, fussing and tugging while chit-chatting non-stop about treason and killing men at weddings (Freudian slip?)...:

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

"You do look quite exquisite, child," Lady Olenna Tyrell told Sansa when she tottered up to them in a cloth-of-gold gown that must have weighed more than she did. "The wind has been at your hair, though." The little old woman reached up and fussed at the loose strands, tucking them back into place and straightening Sansa's hair net. "I was very sorry to hear about your losses," she said as she tugged and fiddled. "Your brother was a terrible traitor, I know, but if we start killing men at weddings they'll be even more frighened of marriage than they are presently. There, that's better." Lady Olenna smiled. "I am pleased to say I shall be leaving for Highgarden the day after next. I have had quite enough of this smelly city, thank you. Perhaps you would like to accompany me for a little visit, whilst the men are off having their war? I shall miss my Margaery so dreadfully, and all her lovely ladies. Your company would be such sweet solace."

"You are too kind, my lady," said Sansa, "but my place is with my lord husband."

 

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

let's look to see what happens when Sansa flees the wedding:

Quote

The sight of it had been too terrible to watch, and she had turned and fled, sobbing.  Lady Tanda had been fleeing as well.  "You have a good heart, my lady," she said to Sansa.  "Not every maid would weep so for a man who set her aside and wed her to a dwarf."

A good heart.  I have a good heart.  Hysterical laughter rose up her gullet, but Sansa choked it back down.

Then as she is changing clothes her eyes immediately go to her hair net

Quote

She felt so numb and dreamy.  My skin has turned to porcelain, to ivory, to steel.  Her hand moved stiffly, awkwardly, as if they had never let down her hair before.  For a moment she wished Shae was there, to help her with the net.

When she pulled it free, her long auburn hair cascaded down her back and across her shoulders.  The web of spun silver hung from her fingers, the fine metal glimmering softly, the stones black in the moonlight.  Black amethysts from Asshai.  One of them was missing.  Sansa lifted the net for a closer look.  There was a smudge in the silver socket where the stone had fallen out.

A sudden terror filled her.  Her heart hammered against her ribs, and for an instant she held her breath.  Why am I so scared, it's only an amethyst, a black amethyst from Asshai, no more than that.  It must have been loose in the setting, that's all.  It was loose and it fell out, and now it's lying somewhere in the throne room, or in the yard, unless....

Ser Dontos had said the hair net was magic, that it would take her home.  He told her she must wear it tonight at Jeffrey's wedding feast.  The silver wire stretched tight across her knuckles.  Her thumb rubbed back and forth against the hole where the stone had been.

Interesting that Sansa's current thoughts only go back to Dontos telling her that the necklace was magic and it would take her home.  She "fails" to remember that he also told her that the necklace was vengeance and justice for her father.

I contend that it's possible that Sansa didn't "fail" to remember but instead she is purposely suppressing it and she is suppressing to herself what she had done only moments before.

The hysterical laughter that she choked down is her suppression of the enormity of what she has done.

Now let's go back to the wedding, where we only have Tyrion's POV:

Quote

Sansa tasted a spoonful of soup and pushed the bowl away.  "Not to your liking, my lady?" Tyrion asked.

"There's to be so much, my lord.  I have a little tummy."  She fiddled nervously with her hair and looked down the table to where Joffrey sat with his Tyrell queen.

She knows what she has in her hair, and she's debating with herself as to what she should or is capable of doing.  I think her final decision comes when she realizes that the Lannisters broke Ice down into their two swords.  That's when she comes to the realization that she has to go through with it.  Now whether she meant to poison Tyrion to free herself from the Lannisters, or whether she meant to poison Joffrey is another question.

Interesting idea.  I wish I had as much confidence in Sansa's 'agency' as you and her fans do!

[Lord Wraith]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But was she kept in the dark?  We know she was told the necklace was "justice" and   "Vengeance" for her father.  And then we leave Sansa's POV, so we don't know what was told next.  

Then let's look to see what happens when Sansa flees the wedding:

Then as she is changing clothes her eyes immediately go to her hair net

Interesting that Sansa's current thoughts only go back to Dontos telling her that the necklace was magic and it would take her home.  She "fails" to remember that he also told her that the necklace was vengeance and justice for her father.

I contend that it's possible that Sansa didn't "fail" to remember but instead she is purposely suppressing it and she is suppressing to herself what she had done only moments before.

The hysterical laughter that she choked down is her suppression of the enormity of what she has done.

Now let's go back to the wedding, where we only have Tyrion's POV:

She knows what she has in her hair, and she's debating with herself as to what she should or is capable of doing.  I think her final decision comes when she realizes that the Lannisters broke Ice down into their two swords.  That's when she comes to the realization that she has to go through with it.  Now whether she meant to poison Tyrion to free herself from the Lannisters, or whether she meant to poison Joffrey is another question.

A theory video that is similar to your idea. Given Sansa's unreliable narrator it could be possible.

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

That also doesn't make any sense (even apart from the literary issue of having Sansa make such a gigantic leap in characterization off-page and then forget about it), because if Sansa was doing that, Dontos and Littlefinger would both be confused by her somehow forgetting that she was involved in the plan, but neither (most importantly Dontos, who isn't the sharpest tack) misses a beat when she shows no understanding of what's going on.

But it's not a huge leap, it's something that's been building up for her.  First she was given the news about her brother and mother, meaning that in her mind, her entire family has been killed off, and the Lannisters, the family she has been married into has played a big part.

Quote

“I must be brave. Her torments would soon be ended, one way or the other. If Lady was here, I would not be afraid. Lady was dead, though; Robb, Bran, Rickon, Arya, her father, her mother, even Septa Mordane. All of them are dead but me. She was alone in the world now.”

Then as she prepares for the wedding:

Quote

“But first came breakfast in the Queen’s Ballroom, for the Lannisters and the Tyrell men—the Tyrell women would be breaking their fast with Margaery—and a hundred odd knights and lordlings. They have made me a Lannister, Sansa thought bitterly.”

The problem is she's not sure she's up for Littlefinger's plan, which includes the amethysts, "vengeance" and "justice" for her father.

Quote

“Sansa was tempted to beg off. I could tell him that my tummy was upset, or that my moon’s blood had come. She wanted nothing more than to crawl back in bed and pull the drapes. I must be brave, like Robb, she told herself”

Then later, Joffrey tells Sansa what she can expect in her future as a Lannister, and it just so happens that it's the same thing that Dontos warns her about when he gives her the tools for vengeance and justice for her family.

Quote

“Don’t be sad, Sansa, once I’ve gotten Queen Margaery with child I’ll visit your bedchamber and show my little uncle how it's done."

Then Joffrey further twists the knife and taunts Sansa about the destruction of her house:

Quote

"A splendid cup," said Joffrey, "but we'll need to chip the wolf off and put a squid in its place, I think."  

Sansa pretended that she had not heard.

And then despite Tyrion's attempts at kindness to Sansa she has no fondness in return:

Quote

“I never harmed your brother Bran. And I mean no harm to you.”
What does he want me to say? “That is good to know, my lord.” He wanted something from her, but Sansa did not know what it was. He looks like a starving child, but I have no food to give him. Why won’t he leave me be?
Tyrion rubbed at his scarred, scabby nose yet again, an ugly habit that drew the eye to his ugly face.

Then we shift to Tyrion's point of view, and despite Tyrion's attempts to show kindness to Sansa, if anything it probably makes matters worse.  He just reinforces how he wants to make her a Lannister:

Quote

“I had been thinking that when the roads are safe again, we might journey to Casterly Rock.” Far from Joffrey and my sister. The more he thought about what Joff had done to Lives of Four Kings, the more it troubled him. There was a message there, oh yes. “It would please me to show you the Golden Gallery and the Lion’s Mouth, and the Hall of Heroes where Jaime and I played as boys. You can hear thunder from below where the sea comes in …”
She raised her head slowly. He knew what she was seeing; the swollen brutish brow, the raw stump of his nose, his crooked pink scar and mismatched eyes. Her own eyes were big and blue and empty. “I shall go wherever my lord husband wishes.”

What a pathetic little man you are. Did you think babbling about the Lion’s Mouth would make her smile? When have you ever made a woman smile but with gold? “No, it was a foolish notion. Only a Lannister can love the Rock.”

Then there is her meeting with Lady Olenna.  I think at this point Lady Olenna at least knows about the plot with the amethysts.  Now that could be because she is part of the plot, or it could be that Ser Dontos, is a drunk and let something slip and the word got back to her.  So at the very least, Olenna checks to see if Sansa does indeed have the hairnet, and when she establishes that she does, she provides this interesting perhaps coded message:

Quote

“The wind has been at your hair, though.” The little old woman reached up and fussed at the loose strands, tucking them back into place and straightening Sansa’s hair net. “I was very sorry to hear about your losses,” she said as she tugged and fiddled. “Your brother was a terrible traitor, I know, but if we start killing men at weddings they’ll be even more frightened of marriage than they are presently”

Now if the plot was for Sansa to poison her husband, is Olenna trying to goad Sansa into it by reminding her of what was done to her brother, or is she trying to talk Sansa out of it?  If the plot was for the Tyrells to kill Joffrey, I doubt Olenna even brings this up.  And if the plot was for Littlefinger to kill Joffrey and Olenna got wind of it, I don't think she'd allow the hairnet to make it into the wedding.

I think it's the former and not the latter, and I think this is why Garlan gets seated next to Tyrion and Sansa, he's keeping an eye on Sansa.  If Sansa does poison Tyrion, Garlan would be on hand to keep Sansa from Littlefinger.  And if Joffrey was not the intended target, then perhaps his unexpected death is what distracts Garlan, and the other Tyrells.  Remember Garlan is the one that runs to Joffrey aid, and this is when Sansa makes her exit.

Then at the feast, Sansa is finally confronted with whether or not she can be brave like Robb and go through with the plan.  A plan that has two parts:  1) poison your husband probably during the bedding, and 2) make her exit during the confusion, while perhaps everyone thinks Tyrion is merely choking on his food.

This is why she's so distracted, from Tyrion's POV.  She's distracted because she's deciding whether or not she can go through with this.

Quote

“There’s to be so much, my lord. I have a little tummy.” She fiddled nervously with her hair and looked down the table to where Joffrey sat with his Tyrell queen.

“Does she wish it were her in Margaery’s place? Tyrion frowned. Even a child should have better sense.”

I think Tyrion is seriously misreading her.  I think she may be trying to figure out who she wants to poison at this point, Tyrion or Joffrey.

And then out come Littlefinger's dwarfs.  And remember the dwarves were dressed as a Baratheon knight and a Stark knight.  This wasn't designed merely to incense Tyrion, but to anger Sansa as well.  If Littlefinger choreographed this, he may be manipulating Sansa as well for her anger to give her courage to go through with the plan.

But why is he making mock of Tyrion?  The answer is simple, the plan is for Sansa to escape during the bedding, and since she was given a web of poison, it was also probably designed for her to be in place to poison Tyrion.  So Littlefinger needs to make sure there is antagonism between Tyrion and Joffrey, so there is no chance that Tyrion would take part in the bedding ceremony.

But for all the horror that the Lannisters have heaped upon Sansa, her tipping point, which made her commit to the poisoning, occurs when she makes this realization:

Quote

“Sansa stirred in her seat. “What sword is that?”
Tyrion’s eyes still stung from the wine. He blinked and looked again. Ser Ilyn’s greatsword was as long and wide as Ice, but it was too silvery-bright; Valyrian steel had a darkness to it, a smokiness in its soul. Sansa clutched his arm. “What has Ser Ilyn done with my father’s sword?”

Sansa realizes that Ice has been turned into the Lannister's swords.  Exactly what they are doing to her.  This is what prompted Sansa to go through with the poisoning.  Perhaps for Joffrey and vengeance for her father, or perhaps to Tyrion to keep her from sharing Ice's fate and be turned into a Lannister.

I've already gone on too long, and it's getting late,  so I'll address your other points another day, in another reply.  But I wold add this, Sansa didn't forget she did it, she suppressed that she did it.

[Lord Wraith]

@Mithras also has a take on the purple wedding. 

 

One more way of looking at it.

[Colonel Green]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, moored? Out in the middle of the bay? So far out that you can't even see land? Moored to what?

Anchored, is the word I meant to use.

Quote

If I were Littlefinger and I had an operation of this magnitude in the works, you bet your boots I would have someone other than drunken Dontos Hollard as my eyes and ears and a means to learn exactly what is happening in the Red Keep just in case I have to split for Braavos at a moment's notice.

The only way this supposed agent could have any useful information was if they were also in the hall at the time of the assassination, meaning they'd have had to escape secretly just as Sansa and Dontos did.  There would be no meaningful lead time, and there's no evidence whatsoever for this.

Quote

Rowing so far out into the bay ensures that they can make their escape without drawing the attention of royal warships (yes, there are a few left) and that no one can possibly witness a fair maid with red hair climbing aboard a trading galley on the night of Sansa's disappearance.

If Littlefinger feels safe enough to take the ship that close to the city when he's been keeping out of sight for months at that point, he'd feel safe enough to pick up the boat.  The idea that anybody would be able to see Sansa's hair in the middle of the night from a distance is pretty fanciful, and in any event, there's no reason that Sansa's escaping by boat is information that needs to be concealed at all costs either; by the time anybody put that together they'd be long gone, and can sail literally anywhere.

29 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

But it's not a huge leap, it's something that's been building up for her.  

Yeah, it is a huge leap.  Sansa has never, at that point, taken any sort of active role in scheming; indeed, we only see her being eased into that through AFFC and now into TWOW.  You're proposing that offscreen between ACOK and ASOS she signed onto a regicide plot, never once thought about this during the chapters leading up to the wedding, carried out this plan, and then suddenly suppressed months' worth of memories and rebooted to timid and game-averse Sansa who needs to be basically forced into playing the game of thrones again.

[Cymorococh]

6 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

In addition to that connotation of 'as well [as somebody else],' there might be a further interpretation, namely that the doctors conducted a procedure 'in addition [to something else]' --i.e. they specified that they conducted an autopsy in addition to the other investigations they had already concluded.  Remember, they are physicians acting as expert witnesses in a court of law who are keen to defend their diagnosis and uphold their reputations, so they need to demonstrate that they have covered all their bases and not left out anything which might be held against them, according to the best possible standards of known medical practice.  Seen in this context, it's possible they were just describing in detail all the procedures they had undertaken in order to reach the conclusion that Joffrey had been poisoned.  

The first procedure in any investigation of suspicious death is a gross inspection of the body -- one doesn't proceed directly to the scalpel and the saw! -- systematically doing a survey of the entire visible surface of the body, which would've included particular inspection of Joffrey's face, eyes, lips, oral cavity, upper pharynx for signs of poisoning (the purple color, etc.).  Thereafter, in order to be extra thorough, they opened his throat 'as well' in order to clinch their working diagnosis.  I don't think it necessarily means that someone else had conducted an autopsy prior to the examination of Maesters Ballabar and Frenken.  Also, it doesn't make sense to say they 'opened' Joffrey's throat if the throat had already been cut open by someone else!  A throat is not a door that can be opened and closed from the outside without a trace...Surely if that were the case, they would've reported something more along the lines of having confirmed the diagnosis as a second opinion to the one first made by their colleagues, with the caveat specifying that they had not been the ones to first open the throat, which might have had some bearing on the conclusions they were able to draw. How can one attest with certainty that there was nothing to be found in the throat if the throat had already been opened?  It would've also been important from their point of view to specify if they had found evidence of someone else tampering with the body, in order to protect themselves from being accused of having tampered with the body or suppressed evidence themselves in the murder investigation of a king (for which their own heads might be at stake).

Er, the passage is pretty clear. They opened two things:

1 - Maesters Ballabar and Frenken opened the second day of trial.

2 - They had opened King Joffrey's noble corpse as well

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Lots to respond to, let's crack on:

@Frey family reunion posited your basic "Sansa Durden" scenario, and despite some compelling quotes, I'm not at all convinced.

They refer to Dontos's seemingly having a different version of the plan - but I don't think Dontos would have been that much in the loop, especially all the way back in ACOK.

Quote

Littlefinger laughed. "Ser Dontos the Red was a skin of wine with legs. He could never have been trusted with a task of such enormity. He would have bungled it or betrayed me. No, all Dontos had to do was lead you from the castle . . . and make certain you wore your silver hair net."

-- Sansa VI, A Storm of Swords

Woah there, papa. "A task of such enormity"? He's in charge of smuggling in the poison and kidnapping Sansa. That's huge! Either Littlefinger's a bigger gambler than he's letting on here, or there was another cut-out between him and Dontos - at least for a while. I know when Dontos gets killed it's obvious they've met before, but if he was really that unreliable you'd think that Littlefinger would at least take steps to minimise his exposure. Say, by testing Dontos for a while, seeing if he could get away with meeting Sansa a few times without getting caught, and then meeting directly with him. (Why meet with him at all? If he's going to do this, Dontos needs to believe in the money, and he might not without confirming that he really has a rich benefactor.)

@Colonel Green explained why Olenna would conspire with Littlefinger:

16 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

He's good at getting people to trust him.

And there was me thinking there wasn't a good explanation!

The good Colonel (and others) also made a good case that Littlefinger's ship probably couldn't hear the funeral bells. I still think GRRM has left enough wiggle room that he could pull that out of his arse if he wanted to, but I will now agree that it would be totally gay if he did.

However, I must take issue with this:

16 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

The Ghost of High Heart's prophecies are all very straightforward.  There's nothing whatsoever suggesting an alternative interpretation.

No, they're not. "And later I dreamt that maid again, slaying a savage giant in a castle built of snow." Who's the savage giant?

(One piece of evidence for Sansa's hairnet being the source of the poison is the Ghost of High Heart's Prophecy, which I dismissed because it's a prophecy.)

And the Colonel also takes issue with my contention that Littlefinger's question I bet someone fiddled with your hair net was one of those "Heads I win, tails you lose" situations:

16 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

That's insanely contrived.  Littlefinger takes a total shot in the dark and then it just so happens that the person who touched the hairnet was Olenna, when the previous Sansa chapters have shown the Tyrells' plans coming together?

...It's completely changing the plans of the assassins and the target, as well as the meaning of all the events that occur when Sansa escapes, and the Sansa chapters leading up to the assassination.

But I think he's engaging in something like backwards logic here. Previous chapters only show the Tyrell plan coming together if what Littlefinger says about the Tyrell plan is true. I'm getting stuck on the formal illogic, but it does seem to me that this argument is working backwards from the conclusion. Perhaps there's someone with a philosophy degree who can explain it better.

And Littlefinger doesn't take a shot in the dark. He asks a question such that any answer will work for his purposes. (Maybe.)

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

This is all too funny. Even @Illyrio Mo'Parties is becoming a convert. Maybe I should stop writing and start making videos.

Don't get too excited, I'm still not completely persuaded. And bear in mind that PJ's version of events is very different to yours, and it's those differences that have made the difference for me.

However, I do totally agree with this:

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If I were Littlefinger and I had an operation of this magnitude in the works, you bet your boots I would have someone other than drunken Dontos Hollard as my eyes and ears and a means to learn exactly what is happening in the Red Keep just in case I have to split for Braavos at a moment's notice.

But Colonel Green objects:

4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

The only way this supposed agent could have any useful information was if they were also in the hall at the time of the assassination, meaning they'd have had to escape secretly just as Sansa and Dontos did.  There would be no meaningful lead time, and there's no evidence whatsoever for this.

And I disagree. We don't know how long it takes Sansa to get back to her room, get changed, go to the godswood and wait for Dontos. I believe she mentions it's a long time, and that she starts to worry that Dontos won't show up. It could be fifteen minutes, it could be two hours. Who knows? Plenty of time for another agent to make a more direct escape and give Littlefinger the hot word.

But to clarify, John, you implied that Littlefinger's ship's mobility was important. Are you saying Littlefinger himself was in King's Landing, and sailed out earlier in the evening?

Perhaps he sailed down from Harrenhal... which raises the question, just what was he doing in those few months he was supposedly "wooing" Lysa?

7 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

Didn't Tywin's statement 'I had his throat slit open' strike you?  Did Tywin have something to do with Joffrey's death?  He always said he intended to teach him 'a sharp lesson,' after all!

Yes, it did - in fact, long before I got to the Purple Wedding, I was convinced Tywin was going to have Joffrey killed. (In cahoots with Olenna, actually.) But now I'm off that one. Tywin wanted Tyrion dead much more, and Aerys too, and he never had them murdered.

7 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

I've argued that Littlefinger's primary intention was not to kill anyone in particular.  Rather, he aimed to create a diversion so that he could seize control of Sansa, for which a murder conveniently fit into his plan, serving simultaneously to set her up as the patsy, so she'd be beholden to him and too scared for her life to think of turning to anyone else, once he had presented himself to her on a platter as her one and only saviour (and master).

I think that Littlefinger is using lies to achieve the same ends.

7 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

Olenna... fiddled with Sansa's hairnet for quite a while, fussing and tugging while chit-chatting non-stop about treason and killing men at weddings (Freudian slip?)...:

Or a red herring.

5 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

A theory video that is similar to your idea. Given Sansa's unreliable narrator it could be possible.

Fucking hell, it's 45 minutes long. No sale, Charlie

I'm running out of steam, guys.

1 hour ago, Cymorococh said:

Er, the passage is pretty clear. They opened two things:

1 - Maesters Ballabar and Frenken opened the second day of trial.

2 - They had opened King Joffrey's noble corpse as well

Don't crush my dreams

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

One fresh thought occurs to me: it's possible that this mystery isn't actually constructed that well. Consider the two things we know for a near-certainty:

1. Littlefinger wanted to provoke conflict between Tyrion and Joffrey.

2. Littlefinger wanted to exfiltrate Sansa from the Red Keep.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, these two goals conflict with each other: an argument between Tyrion and Joffrey could easily have gotten Tyrion kicked out, or prompted him to leave, and as his wife, Sansa would be obliged to go with him. Now, you might say that's unlikely. But (a) it's not, and (b) how unlikely would something have to be that you'd risk it spoiling your master plan?

(And of course, this problem only gets worse if Littlefinger was trying to kill Tyrion. Let's suppose that was the plan, and it went off without a hitch: Tyrion chokes to death at the wedding feast. If that happened, wouldn't somebody immediately go to comfort Sansa, and therefore notice that she was missing? Wouldn't somebody go to find her, either out of suspicion or compassion?)

I'm getting a little worried that I've spent quite a lot of time going through something with a fine-toothed comb when a wide-toothed one would do just as well.

[Luddagain]

How is this for convoluted

1. Littlefinger persuaded Joffrey to kill Tyrion, using the amethyst poison - not hard (I think he also persuaded Joffrey to try to  kill Bran).

2. The hairnet was to place the blame on Sansa,

3. Little finger knew that someone- probably a Tyrell woman would adjust Sansa's hairnet - it is the sort of thing women do.

4.  Littlefinger would marry Lyssa then plead for Sansa , promising to keep her at the Eyrie.

5. Eventually he would marry her after killing Lyssa 

6. However Sansa in a rage at Joffry DID poison his wine

7. Tyrion believes Sansa poisoned the wine

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

10 minutes ago, Luddagain said:

I think he also persuaded Joffrey to try to  kill Bran.

How could he have done that? Littlefinger has never (in the current books) been to Winterfell. He wasn't there when Bran fell, or in the aftermath.

1: LF surely influenced Joffrey to antagonate Tyrion, but not to kill him.

2: The hairnet was the most ideal way to smuggle in the poison, and it has disappeared together with Sansa. Nobody in the red keep even knows the poison was in the hairnet

3: How would he have known that. The hairnet was probably placed by one of Sansa's chambermaids, they should be able to do this properly. if not the chaimbermaids are not fit for their job. She didn't put it in her hair herself.

4: Yes, most likely this is the case

5: It appears that that is indeed LF's plan

6: How, why and because of what? Sansa wasn;t even aware of the properties of the 'stones' in her hairnet. Never in her chapters are we pointed at the fact that she might have known what it was.

7: Yes, true, but only because she disappeared after the wedding. Tyrion was kind of fond of Sansa and her innocence. So much even, that he (being the horny dwarf that he is) decided not to bed her against her will. Tyrion also feels sorry for her, but he cannot find any proof that Sansa actually killed Joff, but his suspicions are based on her having disappeared, not really a solid case if you ask me.

[ravenous reader]

5 hours ago, Cymorococh said:

Er, the passage is pretty clear. They opened two things:

1 - Maesters Ballabar and Frenken opened the second day of trial.

2 - They had opened King Joffrey's noble corpse as well

Indeed!  That's one of GRRM's sly little linguistic pranks -- I was hoping someone would get it; that's why I highlighted the 'opened' and left it 'Lost Melbonean'-style up to you to figure out the rest...

Well done!  

[Jasta11]

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

 

I'm getting a little worried that I've spent quite a lot of time going through something with a fine-toothed comb when a wide-toothed one would do just as well.

Honestly? I think this is exactly what's happening here. No offense to anyone, it's interesting to read those theories, but I do believe people are making this to be more complicated than it should be. I think Littlefinger, for once, was honest, and things mostly happened as he described them. I don,t see a lot of compelling textual evidence that Tyrion was the target or that the pie had anything to do with it. At best, I think it's possible Littlefinger agreed with Olenna with the ''kill Joffrey'' plan, and then made his own plan on the side to smuggle Sansa out of the city.

Is the entire plan perfect? It sure isn't, but GRRM has used me to this with Littlefinger; his plans are usually flawed and risky, but they all succeed because of plot.

[Macgregor of the North]

I have a question for anybody here on the Tyrion was the target side. If LF's intended target was indeed Tyrion, do you think he would feel the need to hide that from Sansa, and why. 

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, Jasta11 said:

At best, I think it's possible Littlefinger agreed with Olenna with the ''kill Joffrey'' plan, and then made his own plan on the side to smuggle Sansa out of the city.

I don't think that's just "possible", that's pretty clearly what happened.  The Tyrells wouldn't need Sansa to wear the hairnet if they knew she was escaping, and thus incriminating herself anyway.

[Macgregor of the North]

Another question on the theory. Could someone explain how the tiny poison crystal was placed in Tyrions piece of pie, where it was done, by who, and the exact logistics of how it got from the hairnet to the pie slice. 

I struggle to think why anybody(reading the story, or a character in the story) would think that the strangler, which is a poison that is known for being dissolved in liquid, would be best placed in a slice of food?. Especially at a feast where there is wine aplenty. 

There are seventy seven courses, it's absolutely far from certain everybody will try the pie, or finish their piece of pie, or even try more than a bite of said piece of pie. Placing a tiny piece of poisoned crystal in a big pie or slice of pie is a weak attempt at killing somebody I think. 

Everybody drinks their wine at weddings though and once it is fully dissolved only a sip is needed, it's a sure thing. Plus like I said, everything that is known of the strangler shows it is a dissolved crystal poison, made for poisoning people's drinks, not food. The people using this weapon for killing would know these things I think.

[Colonel Green]

Just now, Macgregor of the North said:

I struggle to think why anybody(reading the story, or a character in the story) would think that the strangler, which is a poison that is known for being dissolved in liquid, would be best placed in a slice of food?. Especially at a feast where there is wine aplenty. 

Yeah, that makes no sense either.  John Suburbs' stock answer to this is that it was the wedding pie and therefore everyone would eat it, but there's nothing in the text supporting this.

Frankly, if they wanted to poison Tyrion with food and be sure that he'd eat it, they'd poison whatever he was served first, and they'd use a poison that makes sense to use in a solid food.

[Macgregor of the North]

5 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Yeah, that makes no sense either.  John Suburbs' stock answer to this is that it was the wedding pie and therefore everyone would eat it, but there's nothing in the text supporting this.

Frankly, if they wanted to poison Tyrion with food and be sure that he'd eat it, they'd poison whatever he was served first, and they'd use a poison that makes sense to use in a solid food.

Agreed.

A small man who has already eaten many courses and drank many wines isn't garaunteed to even try the pie, not even out of courtesy because it's the wedding pie. Especially if that small man is Tyrion. 

Even if he tastes it, there's no certainty it kills him. With wine their is. Without doubt. The poison is for dissolving in liquid, not placing in food.