Preston Jacobs and the Purple Wedding

[black_hart]

Guess most of us don't have big experience as a poisoner, me neither. Just this: There is no reason to assume that different persons of different age and health and stomach content should react in exactly the same way down to the number of seconds til death when poisoned. You can fairly safely conduct a test about the different results of poisoning by heavy drinking on empty stomach vs. heavy drinking after a large meal - results do vary.

[Macgregor of the North]

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Trust me when I say that you are banging your head against a brick wall here.

I'll get him to see. He'll break. 

[Macgregor of the North]

11 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Maybe tables, maybe not

Make your mind up. You seem absolutely certain one minute, then change it the next. Of course there are not tables of pie slices behind the royal dais where the monstrous iron throne is. That's just ridiculous. But it was something you were so certain of until I debunked it with facts. See how easy I did that. If you stop being so stubborn and read what im writing ill put the rest of this nonsense to bed also.

11 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If they were coming from the opposite side of the hall, they wouldn't be at Tyrion's place seconds after the ceremony. The servant had to be immediately behind him with fresh hot pie in his hands, direct from the kitchens.

The kitchens are in the direction of the opposite side of the hall, across the courtyard outside the throne room entrance. Yes the pie slices are coming direct from the kitchens and theres nothing to say the edible pies weren't wheeled in and sliced behind the ceremonial pie more toward the throne room entrance while Joffrey is coming down to ready himself for the cutting of the ceremonial pie. As soon as the cutting is done the servants would have already been moving toward the dais with hot slices. The throne room is huge, theres enough space to totally side step Joff twirling Marg. Boom, servants place the slices in front of the seated guests on the dais.

Having one servant per seated guest on the dais all holding pie slices, up beside the iron throne, while they get cold, is very hard to imagine actually happening.

Face it and just admit you have no idea how the edible pie slices come into play, and any scenario you conjure up is made up in your own mind.

My example shows exactly how easy that is to do. But at least mines has some sense to it.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

All this has been address above. She could have just as much trouble bearing a son for Tommon, and they can't even start trying for another five years. The realm is at war, childhood diseases are common...anything could happen in five years. So for Lady O trade a near certainty of an heir from Joffrey within a year or two for maybe the possibility of a marriage to Tommon that won't give them anything for half-a-decade is not a rational decision for a sharp-eyed player of the GoT.

Under which king would the realm be most stable, and thus the chance highest of Margaery's son inheriting the Iron Throne. Joffrey or Tommen?

Because that's the king that is the scenario that would be most preferable. 

 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Also, Joffrey is not quite as monstrous in the book as he is in the show. He does not torture and murder prostitutes, and he has not reason to, nor does he show any sign of, harboring any hatred toward Margy at all. And if he does give her the Sansa treatment at some point in the future, a few black eyes and bloody lips is well worth the price of the Iron Throne. Many queens have suffered far worse for their crowns.

He was kind to Sansa too, wasn't he? Until he wasn't. So that he is being kind and gallant with Margaery now does absolutely not mean that he will continue to do so. And as I said

He plays the gracious king today. Joffrey could be gallant when it suited him, Sansa knew, but it seemed to suit him less and less. 

Joffrey's behavior is more and more turning towards the non-gallant side of the spectrum.

 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would Queen Margaery have all this power with King Tommen but not with King Joffrey? Cersei set the precedent: if the king dies before the heir is of age, the queen rules as regent. Yes, Tywin would still be hand, but there is no reason to think he wouldn't be Tommens hand as well.

With Joffrey, yes. But not after he has died, and that was what I was talking about.

And that Cersei assumed regency when Joffrey died does not automatically mean that Margaery would be able to assume the regency for her own son. With Cersei as regent, the regency remained in Lannister hands. I strongly doubt that Tywin would be willing to let the Tyrells take even more power than absolutely necessary.

 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Theoretically, the affect should be stronger with more quantities of more potent wine. He drinks an enormous amount compared to Cressen and then proceeds unaffected for five or six times longer. Then he eats pie and drinks again, and it is five or six seconds after he taken that pie-laden swallow that he starts choking in earnest, just like Cressen. 

Does he?

“My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.” Holding the chalice onehanded, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion’s pie. “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie,” he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. “See, it’s good.” Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. “Dry, though. Needs washing down.” Joff took a swallow of wine and coughed again, more violently. “I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want. ..” His words broke up in a fit of coughing.

It doesn't sound like it would take much longer to say this than to say 

He let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor. “He does have power here, my lord,” the woman said. “And fire cleanses.”

after Cressen drops the cup.

Joffrey begins to cough about the same amount of time after first drinking the wine as Cressen did. And after the second swallow of wine, it grows worse.

[sgtpimenta]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lady O would only take the risk if she knows exactly where she needs to be at the exact time and the poison can be deployed out of sight and with little or no chance of being discovered. She is simply not the fool you think she is.

And yet your point seems to be that all of her planning and super anal micromanaging of the servings of pies during the the ceremony were all in vain, since she was not able to murder her designated target (Tyrion, in your theory).

In fact, let me share my own experience during my wedding: the lady who was in charge of organizing the event didn't have the time to seat and enjoy the party - which is what Lady O. seems to be doing:

Quote

I do so hope he plays 'The Rains of Castamere.' It's been an hour, I've forgotten how it goes.

 In fact, doesn't look like the QoT even takes part in planning the wedding, since Jaime credits the Ceremony to Cersei:

Quote

My sister outdid herself, I'm told. Seventy-seven courses and a regicide , never a wedding like it.

I would like to quote you, if I may, @John Suburbs, if I may:

Quote

Again, you are making up your own facts to suit your conclusion

Let's make a list of all the alternative facts that you seem to be creating to support Preston Jacobs' Theory:

• LF have experimented with it on animals or even humans to see if the poison worked
•  Queen of Thorns kept a watchful eye during all the ceremony
• QoT stick those little fingers of her into Tyrion's pie (with the poison) in the exact spot she knew Tyrion wold put his mouth on 
• Joffrey barfed this same exact piece of pie into his own chalice
• Joffrey describes the pie as "dry" because the poison was drawing all the moisture out of the pie

Sure, all this made-up facts seems to make sense to you, but not one of them have actual proof in the text.

All this inductive reasonings and creative logic leaps are all fun and games, but they are not valid proofs. Let's keep this simple and keep the tinfoil out of this discussion.

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

No, they couldn't do that easily, because the Lannisters are also crafty, and even apart from the Loras issue, once Joffrey has started to abuse Margaery, the Tyrells' motive will be obvious to everyone.  That's why they strike before the problem is apparent to most people (it's notable that, as far as Sansa's development as a player goes, she sees the situation in a way that nobody on the Lannister side ever does, reflecting as well, of course, that she's uniquely situated to do so as Joffrey's prior main victim).

Yes, they could. Joffrey shot himself loading his crossbow, just like Robert got gored by a boar. Everytime a king dies there are rumours of plots and assassination, but with no witnesses, no proof.

15 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Whether you like it or not, it's the analysis GRRM puts in the mouths/thoughts of two separate characters.  It shows us that Sansa has the potential to be like Littlefinger, because she sees the same thing he sees (and used to get the Tyrells to do what he wanted).  Whereas in your telling, the former is just nonsense and Littlefinger's independent verification of this is a lie he makes up on the spot, meaning that Sansa isn't developing her observational skills at all.

I still don't remember any time prior to their conversation that Sansa thought of Loras killing Joffrey. Please enlighten.

15 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

There's a difference between being a "conniving weasel" and being, as the reveal makes him, arguably the main villain of the whole political story.  And the revelation completely changes our understanding of Lysa, who previously came across as simply weak and cowardly, rather than outright malevolent.

Lol, you can't be serious. The man who lied about the knife, then betrayed Ned and got him killed, and you think it takes this reveal three full novels later to convince readers that he's the main villain of the story? Lysa, the woman who tried Tyrion for murder and then lost him due to her own arrogance? And you couldn't figure out until then that she was weak, cowardly and malevolent?

15 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Sansa's going to ditch Littlefinger because he tried to kill Tyrion instead of Joffrey?  Oh, wait, the scheme as already explained to her already involved killing Tyrion by framing him for Joffrey's murder.

No, she's going to ditch him because he lied to her and that he is not in control of the situation like he says he is.

 

15 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

He says it's dry because the poison in the wine is starting to affect his throat but he doesn't realize it.

What exactly in the text supports the idea that a poison crystal will suck up all the moisture out of a pie?

Because wine is about 85 percent water. The moisture in hot pie filling would also be water, therefore simple logic dictates that the strangler is absorbing the moisture in the pie. If Joffrey's throat was being dried out from the poison, then moist pie would come as a relief to him. It wouldn't feel dry.

[John Suburbs]

14 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@John Suburbs

Yes let's consolidate this and finish this up, your on the ropes and running out of angles to add to your fantasy. 

You have always stood by your point (so don't change now please) that Cressens reaction to the poison (in the cup) and Joffreys reaction to the poison (in the pie) are exactly the same. False!. After this you will cease from using Cressens scenario as evidence in this debate. 

Were looking at this from your angle ok, the poison is in the pie (just for this exercise).

1st Cressen. 

Cressen drinks the poison, the cup falls from his hands, he tries to talk but can't, his cough becomes the terrible thin whistle as he tries to suck in air, the iron fingers tighten round his neck, he falls to his knees and dies. Very quick, literally seconds. 

Joffrey. 

He grabs a chunk of the (poisoned) pie, eats it, manages to say "see, it's good", helps himself to another fistful. Says coherently that it's "dry though, needs washing down". Has the strength to lift his wine cup and have another drink. Manages to say the words "I want to see, see you ride that, pig, Uncle I want, it's the pie, noth, pie. After this he is still on his feet and manages to lift the chalice (that he hasn't dropped yet) to try another scoof. He spews it out doubling over, but still on his feet. He still manages to get the words "I can't" out before the chalice finally slips from his hands. 

What I undoubtedly prove here is that the reaction to the same poison from these separate humans is completely different, therefore you can quit mentioning the Cressen angle for your case and it's actually now just as likely the wine was poisoned, and given the other evidence we have, probably more likely. On that angle, case closed JS.

On to the next bit.

Yup Joffs wine is purple but also is described as red(clear nod that something is dodgy about it), fact, Cressens wine after the poison is placed in it is not commented on. Fact. GRRM doesn't have to point out a change in the colour in the wine, the placing of the poison was in the text, there's no need to tell us Cressens wines colour. There is nothing in the text on it so you can take that off the evidence table too as it's useless for your case. 

Yes! Joff takes longer to succumb to the poison, you said it yourself and this is in contradiction to your other evidence you keep using. You have admitted it now so I'm taking that as you believe the poison has effected these two separate humans differently in regards to timeframe and actions. 

Were making progress.

Nope that's only you John as I'm proving. 

The Strangler is a dissolving Crystal known for being placed in drinks from what we have heard. A smart man would use it that way. So LF has experimented on animals or another human to see if they would eat a pigeon pie with a Strangler crystal and die? Bahahaha. 

Just as much risk (probably more actually) having a tiny old woman who leans on a cane reach up to a serving man who is likely a deal taller than her and lift the crust on the slice of pie on his plate to place a purple poison crystal in it. 

NEXT. (Sigh).

Now your presuming to think you know my view on book characters, deep sigh, JS, stick to the books and trying to plead your flagging case. FYI though, I give Olenna much more credit than you in this scenario. 

Listen to this very carefully as you missed it first time round. The tridents wine sesh was a reader observation. The wedding wine sesh is a book character observation (but also hints for us from GRRM on Joffreys sloppy drunken behaviour and how he's drinking more wine than usual). Olenna has the poison on her waiting. The whole ceremony Joff has been tanking back wine better than Robert and he is steaming, playing right in to the hands of anybody who wanted to poison his wine. It's all down to manoeuvres and timing after that and since Joff is behaving the way he is at the wedding, it made it all the easier. Not once did i ever say they used his trident sesh as a reason to want to poison his wine, get your shit right before you come at me like that. 

I forgive you though, it's been a long thread and your struggling visibly. 

Heres a few quotes that show Joffs wine tanking and drunkenness at the wedding. 

"Tyrion was toying with a leche of brawn, spiced with cinnamon, cloves, sugar, and almond milk, when King Joffrey lurched suddenly to his feet. "Bring on my royal jousters!" he shouted in a voice thick with wine, clapping his hands together. 

My nephew is drunker than I am, Tyrion thought as the gold cloaks opened the great doors at the end of the hall. From where he sat, he could only see the tops of two striped lances as a pair of riders entered side by side. A wave of laughter followed them down the center aisle toward the king. They must be riding ponies, he concluded . . . until they came into full view."

"Joffrey was snorting wine from both nostrils. Gasping, he lurched to his feet, almost knocking over his tall two-handed chalice."

"Tyrion turned in his seat. Joffrey was almost upon him, red-faced and staggering, wine slopping over the rim of the great golden wedding chalice he carried in both hands."

Ill post this for now and come back to reply to the rest and finish this charade.

Lol, already answered all of this stuff multiple times. Your own arguments and the imaginary scenarios you invent in the text are what's knocking you into the ropes. From poison contact with the throat, not the mouth but the throat, to the point where "words caught in his throat" the Joffrey/Cressen timelines match almost exactly in my case and are off by multiple orders of magnitude in yours. Fact.

All the rest I've answered half-a-dozen times already. Scroll up.

[John Suburbs]

13 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Back just for this one more post for now@John Suburbs

There are things to take into account here. Joff has already drunk from the poisoned chalice just before Margaery says this. For all we know they hoped to stall Margaerys sipping from the chalice long enough for Joff to start to die? Or Marg could have said she didn't want more wine and called for them to begin eating pie, feeding her husband a piece immediately. Many things can happen. But in any event Joff has drunk from the dodgy purple wine that also is described as red by the time Marg mentions the buckler toast. 

"The king's chalice was on the table where he'd left it. Tyrion had to climb back onto his chair to reach it. Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. "My lord," Margaery said, "we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us."

You missed the point. The Wedding Pie ceremony is a time when toast would naturally be called out and Marcy would be expected to drink. So why choose this exact time to poison the chalice, which holds enough wine to delay the poison so that regardless of whether she drinks first or not, she's going to get the poison?

If Margy knows the wine is poisoned and she already sees him drinking, why is she calling him over for a toast? The deed is done. Why would she want to be anywhere near him, feeding him anything at all, when she knows he's going to start choking any second?

And factual point: the wine does not appear red until choking Joffrey spills it on the dais.

So as usual, it's your own explanations that trip you up because all they do is lead to even more confusing behavior by characters who supposedly know what's going on.

[John Suburbs]

14 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@John Suburbs

Your problem is your doing exactly the same thing by thinking that the plan was for Lady Olenna to reach up on her tip toes to a servant a deal taller than her and hope to lift the crust of the pie slice on the plate and place a purple poisoned crystal under the crust without being seen by the servant or anybody out of the thousand guests. And also have pre planned that she knows exactly where that slice is going, to Tyrion. You "assume" this was the plan. That's your problem. 

Please, elaborate on what makes you so absolutely sure of this. Is it that Tyrion dripped the last half inch on the floor and it was purple where it was red before?. Well remember Joffs first scoof was purple too. Also can you clarify exactly where it states Joff barfed into the chalice?.

"It's, kof, the pie, noth—kof, pie." Joff took another drink, or tried to, but all the wine came spewing back out when another spate of coughing doubled him over. His face was turning red. "I, kof, I can't, kof kofkof kof . . ." The chalice slipped from his hand and dark red wine went running across the dais."

Yes he tries to drink more wine but spews it out but nowhere does it state he barfed it all back in the chalice, nowhere. He could have lifted the chalice for a scoof, lowered the chalice away from his mouth and spewed out wine anywhere but the chalice. Stop making things up John. Again.

No, she doesn't have to reach, she doesn't have to tiptoe, she doesn't have to lift any crust -- you're creating imaginary problems again.

The servant is holding it waist high, not over his head. The pie is a "slice" which means the inner filling is exposed. Just a quick pinch -- literally in the blink of an eye -- and done.

And you honestly suggesting that this can be seen by "anybody out of the thousands of guests" who are all sitting down on the throneroom floor or, like Tyrion, are facing in the opposite direction, but absolutely no one is able to see the giant chalice sitting on the head table that is in plain view of the entire room?

He is drinking the wine and then barfs it right back out. Is he holding the chalice a foot away from his mouth and the wine is magically floating into his gob?

[Nowy Tends]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Because wine is about 85 percent water. The moisture in hot pie filling would also be water, therefore simple logic dictates that the strangler is absorbing the moisture in the pie.

Since when do we know that this crystallized poison, appearing hard enough to be taken for a gemstone, would have the property of absorbing moisture? Sounds like an elucubration to me…

[John Suburbs]

12 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@John Suburbs

Back again . Ok let's cover this.

Just because Tyrion doesn't note it, it doesn't mean that there weren't other chefs that came in behind the ceremonial pie, with the edible pie/s and began cutting and plating up while Joffrey gets ready to come down from the dais, get the sword of choice from Ilyn and approach the ceremonial pie ready for cutting. The Kitchens and the kitchen keep are in the direction of the entrance to the throne room. The main pie came from there. Infact Tyrion and Sansas chambers are above the kitchen keep which is directly opposite the kitchens and when they leave to go to the throne room they join the throng heading for the big entrance doors.

The food for the feast is taken from the kitchens through the entrance to the throne room. The doors are massive, twenty feet tall. The room is immense. They could easily have followed the main pie in. Remember Tyrions pie is still hot when served, what means do you think they had to keep all the pie slices that people were eating hot and on plates "behind" the dais, where I'll remind you the Iron throne is, which is absolutely humongous, and deadly sharp. Certainly no place for lots of serving men and women and serving tables and equipment to keep pie slices hot. 

There is absolutely nothing in the text whatsoever to back up what you think is going on behind the dais where the Iron throne is, nothing at all. Provide it if there is please. 

So once again, how has Olenna managed to know exactly which Tyrions slice is, when you dont even know where it was cut and plated up, managed to know which servant is going to pick it up among the commotion of the room, kept an eye on it coming up to the dais, from which direction you have absolutely no idea, and then timed it so that a serving man that is a deal taller than her stops and looks at the doves, while she reaches up (to a height you can't even be certain she will manage) and places a piece of crystal perfectly under the pies crust at the tip. Remember, the serving man hasn't noticed this old hag with a cane messing with his plate no? Some birds flying around aren't going to make you that dumb to some old bat standing on her tip toes to fuck with your plate. 

Could you be so kind to tell me also exactly where this takes place. I'd love to know. 

John, I have given you many times to explain this and I swear, you are not even coming close to convincing me you even have your story straight. You have had a good run with this, not me, but you should start facing up to the idea that you haven't got anything remotely solid here. Infact I can knock it down every time you come back with something. 

And I'll add here, you have a funny logic about things that dont appear in the text, remember, there are no servants plating up pies and readying them for the dais from the area around the Iron throne in the books. No tables there, no servants, no equipment to keep pies and pie slices hot. None of that appears in the books, you made it up to suit your theory. Fact. 

And your also expecting us all to believe that Olenna is everywhere at once overseeing her master pie slice operation, when in fact she was on the dais. Which means you can't possibly expect anybody to believe that she knows for certain where Tyrions pie slice is coming from, which servant is carrying it, and if it's even for Tyrion. 

Remember, you said she is working alone and actually has to sneak up to the servant to sneak the poison in his pie slice, which Ive explained is ridiculous in itself especially if they are not in league with each other, which they are not.

Lol, talk about making things up to suit a theory. Why bother having all the pies cut and plated to serve to the guests right away when the whole room can sit and watch this amazing spectacle? And the whole time this is going on, Tyrion is in a complete daze. He doesn't see anything, hear anything, nothing is said -- minutes go by while the pies are being sliced and the servants are coming from the opposite side to the giant throne room, apparently impaling themselves on the Iron Throne in the process, and Tyrion never notices.

I cannot find a clearer example of an idea that  is so utterly lacking in textual support than this one.

I've explained the way Olenna knows its Tyrion's pie over and over again. Accept it or not. I'm not here to convince you, so please get over it.

 

[John Suburbs]

12 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I think he improvised that lie after the fact. Why, then, he had her wear the hairnet, I have no idea.

Apologies if I haven't responded to anything else, I'm not reading thru three whole extra pages of this stuff

But how could he possibly know that Lady Olenna had adjusted the hairnet unless he had prior knowledge that she would do just that? Was it just a lucky guess?

[John Suburbs]

11 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Yup, inventing entire scenarios is exactly what you are doing JS. I cant find anything in the books to back up how Olenna manages to sneak the crystal in Tyrions pie slice. Nothing.

I completely and utterly disagree. I actually find that statement laughable.

Not at all. The wine chalice was left by Joffrey on the table with more than ample time to be poisoned. If you come back to this and say that theres a risk the poisoner could be seen, theres more risk of Olenna being seen in the absurd position of leaning on her cane while trying to reach a serving mans plate to place a piece of crystal perfectly under the tip of the crust, especially when she is described as a small wizened old woman lol. And if you come back and say that the chalice is too tall to be reached on the table then check how utterly ridiculous your scenario sounds. A serving MAN (likely much taller than Olenna) is on the way to Tyrion with a pie slice on a plate. Then this wizened old small crone manages to hobble over leaning on her cane and manages to pull off this move, defying all sensible reach logic, to place the crystal perfectly under the tip of the pie below the crust, which would see her have to actually lift the crust up, all while the serving man is gaping at doves in the room. So even if you are looking at something, do you think that you wouldn't notice someone coming over, stretching up while leaning on their cane to mess with the food your serving? Especially if shes an ugly bitter old looking thing.

 

Ha! Possibly. First real step back you are taking JS. Possibly now is it, where you were absolutely dead certain before. Pretty soon you will be conceding that you have made that part up to suit your theory with no textual evidence to back it up, and when that starts happening, your case will crumble. Fact.

I'll be back.

Lol, and here are the questions you refuse to answer for me:

How can they know ahead of time that Joffrey will leave the chalice in that exact spot -- not a foot to the left or to the right -- so that Garlan or anyone else could reach it.

How can they know Tyrion will be named cup-bearer and have his hands all over the chalice just before Joffrey drinks the poison?

How can the be sure Margaery won't have to drink if and when a toast is called? (OK, you garbled out some nonsense about her making up some excuse not to drink, but it's nonsense)

Why would they purposely give Joffrey a huge chalice that can only serve to dilute the poison so that Margy has an increased chance of also drinking, or suspiciously begging off, even after Joffrey has drunk?

Why would brave Ser Garlan, an anointed knight who waded into the thick of battle on the Blackwater, shame himself by using poison to dispatch a foe?

Why bother with the hairnet at all when Lady O could just as easily carry the poison on her person, and then drop a small piece at Sansa's place if they wanted to frame her?

Why do they need to frame Sansa at all if the plan is to make Tyrion the fall guy?

Why does Lady O need Sansa to confirm all these bad things about Joffrey if she has already entered into a plot to kill him?

I can go on and on. The whole theory, from start to finish, just doesn't hold up under even moderate scrutiny. It fails across the board: forensics, motive, logistics. At every turn, we have to either make up completely ludicrous explanations as to why the characters are behaving so oddly, or count of a string of highly improbable, if not downright impossible, lucky breaks to have it all work out in the end.

Sorry, but no.

 

[Colonel Green]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I still don't remember any time prior to their conversation that Sansa thought of Loras killing Joffrey. Please enlighten.

ASOS Sansa II:

Quote

How can I let my sister marry Joffrey? she thought, and suddenly her eyes were full of tears.  "Margaery, please," she said, "you mustn't."  It was hard to get the words out.  "You mustn't marry him.  He's not like he seems, he's not.  He'll hurt you."

"I shouldn't think so."  Margaery smiled confidently.  "It's brave of you to warn me, but you need not fear.  Joff's spoiled and vain and I don't doubt he's cruel as you say, but Father forced him to name Loras to his Kingsguard before he would agree to the match.  I shall have the finest knight in the Seven Kingdoms protecting me night and day, as Prince Aemon protected Naerys.  So our little lion had best behave, hadn't he?"  She laughed, and said, "Come, sweet sister, let's race back to the river.  It will drive our guards quite mad."  And without waiting for an answer, she put her heels into her horse and flew.

She is so brave, Sansa thought, galloping after her...and yet, her doubts still gnawed at her.  Ser Loras was a great knight, all agreed.  But Joffrey had other Kingsguard, and gold cloaks and red cloaks besides, and when he was older he would command armies of his own.  Aegon the Unworthy had never harmed Queen Naerys, perhaps for fear of their brother the Dragonknight...but when another of his Kingsguard fell in love with one of his mistresses, the king had taken both their heads.

Ser Loras is a Tyrell, Sansa reminded herself.  That other knight was only a Toyne.  His brothers had no armies, no way to avenge him but with swords.  Yet the more she thought about it all, the more she wondered.  Joff might restrain himself for a few turns, perhaps as long as a year, but soon or late he will show his claws, and when he does...The realm might have a second Kingslayer, and there would be war inside the city, as the men of the lion and the men of the rose made the gutters run red.

Sansa was surprised that Margaery did not see it too.  She is older than me, she must be wiser.  And her father, Lord Tyrell, he knows what he is doing, surely.  I am just being silly.

This is the sort of passage that slips by most readers the first time around, in terms of its character implications, but on a reread you can see that Sansa has precisely identified the core instability in the alliance.  She ends up dismissing her own insight in the face of Margaery's confidence (Sansa doesn't think much of her own abilities at this point), but in fact, the reason for Margaery's confidence is that she does see the same thing Sansa does, and has a plan to deal with it.  And Littlefinger, many chapters later, essentially reiterates this spiel (and Sansa, it should be noted, never thinks back to this moment, so it's not a case where she herself later concludes she'd known it all along).

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Lol, you can't be serious. The man who lied about the knife, then betrayed Ned and got him killed, and you think it takes this reveal three full novels later to convince readers that he's the main villain of the story?

Er, yeah.  As evidence, look at the common reaction to said revelation.

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Lysa, the woman who tried Tyrion for murder and then lost him due to her own arrogance? And you couldn't figure out until then that she was weak, cowardly and malevolent?

Lysa being weak and kind of mad is one thing, but her actions read completely differently when you know she's trying to cover up her own involvement.

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No, she's going to ditch him because he lied to her and that he is not in control of the situation like he says he is.

Doesn't work at all, thematically.

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Because wine is about 85 percent water. The moisture in hot pie filling would also be water, therefore simple logic dictates that the strangler is absorbing the moisture in the pie. If Joffrey's throat was being dried out from the poison, then moist pie would come as a relief to him. It wouldn't feel dry.

What?  These crystals dissolve in water, they don't absorb it.

57 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would brave Ser Garlan, an anointed knight who waded into the thick of battle on the Blackwater, shame himself by using poison to dispatch a foe?

Assuming Garlan is even involved, because appearances are deceiving?  Seriously, that's like the whole point of House Tyrell, thematically.

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Why bother with the hairnet at all when Lady O could just as easily carry the poison on her person, and then drop a small piece at Sansa's place if they wanted to frame her?

Either way works.  They chose the latter (and, in truth, having an indication she specifically concealed the crystal on her person -- and, perhaps, that all the other crystals are poison too -- is more incriminating).

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Why do they need to frame Sansa at all if the plan is to make Tyrion the fall guy?

Because the Tyrells weren't making Tyrion the fall guy.  Littlefinger was.  They had different ideas of what was going to happen.

[John Suburbs]

10 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@John Suburbs

Ok so we're getting clearer here. You have her waiting right behind Tyrion the whole time from his scene with Joffrey, all the way through Joffrey getting down off the dais, calling for Ilyn, the cutting of the pie and twirling Marg around, she's standing there the whole time right behind him and Tyrion doesn't even bat an eyelid no?. Nor Sansa or Tyrion remember it later. He certainly doesnt comment on Olenna lurking right behind him for this duration of time?. 

So she waits until the server is standing behind Tyrion with the plate in his hand, which could still be for Sansa, but you have Olenna being in charge of the whole day so she just knows its for Tyrion of course.

Then before he lays it down, she reaches up and sneaks in the crystal before he lays it down in front of Tyrion yeah? And you don't think there will be other servants and other pie slices going about getting ready to lay plates down no? Tyrion is the only one getting served a pie slice that day?. Sansa gets pie too remember and doesn't want to eat it. Ok check this scenario. A serving man comes to the dais, from which direction you have no clue so dont presume that you do. He is holding both Tyrion and Sansas pie slice plates. What does Olenna do then? You are still certain she knows which one is going to be Tyrions I take it?. But that would mean she has to wait until the serving man is right there at Tyrion actually just away to lay it so she knows exactly who out of Tyrion and Sansa is getting it. This leaves less than a split second really and makes her and her actions easily visible to Sansa Tyrion and also the serving man. Not possible. 

JS, this is all in YOUR own mind, surely you can se that yes, you have made this sequence of events up. This is what you "think" happened but there is nothing in the text to show that this actually happened is there. Be truthful. 

You do not even have a clue where the pie slice came from do you, lets have it right yeah. You have no textual evidence to back up which direction you think the pie slice is coming from do you?. 

The wine is purple at the start too. Clearly, so let's begin there. 

Are you saying the wine is purple due to poison yes?. Let's get right to the beginning of the scene. Joffrey drinks from the chalice and purple wine runs down his chin, and the wine is purple because it was poisoned yes. We are in agreement that this wine is purple because poison has came in to contact with the wine yeah. This is a great place to both be on the same page here. 

She's not lurking, she's just standing there. She's an old woman who has been sitting for hours and she's getting some circulation back into her legs. Plus she's there to make sure the pies are served properly. No big deal. No reason for Tyrion to take any more notice of her than he already has. He and everyone else is watching the ceremony.

All the other servants are buys holding their own pies for their own guests. There is a servant for Garlan, Leonette, Sansa etc. Nobody but this one servant has any reason to be paying any attention at all this pie, which is undoubtedly going to Tyrion because he is standing right behind him and this is the way Lady O has it all arranged.

It only takes a spit second to tuck the poison into the filling, but this happens when the pigeons take flight and the servants eye's are drawn upward, not as he is serving it to Tyrion.

This is the only logical way it could have happened given all of the text that proves the poison was not in the wine, the plotters could not have known where the chalice would be, that Garlan would not use poison, the plotters had no real reason to want Joffrey dead, plus the fact that the pies were served immediately after the cutting ceremony. What's in your mind is this silly theory about dozens of chefs wheeling hundreds of pies into the throne room so they can start slicing them up then and there for the thousands of guests at the wedding.

The pie came from behind Tyrion. The servant did not walk across the top of the table, nor float overhead, or is this also something that Tyrion simply failed to notice?

No, the purple wine on Joffrey's chin is merely the affect of thin rivulets of wine against his pale skin. If the wine was poisoned at this point to the point that it has turned purple, Joffrey would have been on the ground by the time Margy finished her sentence about Lord Buckler and the wine would have still been purple when it spilled on the dais.

I'm all for answering questions and engaging in honest debate, but honestly Mac, you can stop being a dick about it.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

That doesn't mean the wine didn't change colors. We don't know. Cressen doesn't say what the color is. He is about to attempt murder. Why remark on the color of the wine? You can't use non information to say the color did or didn't change color.

Where did I say anything about the strength/weakness of Cressen or Joff's throat muscles? 

After the cutting of course. Joff's drink after Tyrion refilled it wasn't poisoned yet. 

 

You say this like the Strangler has a standard time frame of death following consumption. This seems to be what you are hung up on. Out of the two, just two, Strangler poisonings in the series you want them to have the exact same result. That is unrealistic, IMO. 

Yes, the process is slow and difficult. That doesn't mean that one guy used a tiny bit more ash or another guy let it crystalize for an extra two days...There is no way we should expect two poisonings on two different people from two different batches of different amounts of Strangler in two different volumes of wine to happen EXACTLY the same. How different is a few seconds anyways? After all, we only have the two poisonings to look at. Maybe the Strangler can take up to a minute, we don't know. When Cressen describes the poison he makes no mention if timeframe from consumption to death. You are using Cressen's poisoning as the only exact timeframe which can occur from consuming the Strangler. We don't know. 

 

Clearly purple wine at the bottom of a deep chalice vs. normal looking wine at the bottom of a normal-sized cup. That's about as clear evidence as you can get to determine which one has the more poison.

I dunno, this is what you posted:

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You may be right that it is a contact poison. You probably are. However, it is still a fictional poison in a fantasy series. So all we know is what the text tells us about it. It tightens the throat, shutting off the windpipe. To me, it would make sense that IF Joff's was not as strong as Cressen's that Joff's throat began to tighten after his first drink. He then, with his throat tighter was able to take a bite of pie then remark on how dry it is. It probably would seem dry if you're throat was tighter than usual. He then takes another drink and dies. This makes sense.

So how Joff's weaker throat muscles could hold out longer against both more wine and more potent poison is your paradox, not mine.

We're not talking about poisonings that aren't exact. They're not even close. Five, six orders of magnitude longer, at least. For an extremely rare, extremely difficult poison to make in which ingredients must be combined and treated in an exact way, the idea that one batch would be five times faster than another is so unlikely that it is functionally impossible.

 

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As unlikely and unsupported by the text as this is, it is also impossible. The wine was purple in Joff's first drink following the cutting BEFORE he takes a bite.

The wine appears purple on Joff's chin because it is a thin rivulet of red wine running down his pale white skin.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, JonSnow4President said:

I'm your boss and I'll have cheese when I want to have my f***ing cheese is in no way, shape, or form indicative of a proclivity to obsessively organize every detail of a massive event that she is only on record as restoring the flow of food into the city for.

From a practical standpoint, something has to exist.  Otherwise you have roughly 1 servant for every 4 guests swarming the room at once, or each of 77 courses taking forever.  Regardless, prearranging which pie is Tyrion's in any form is ridiculously implausible, and there is no reason to think Olenna even has that capability (without stretching the equivalent of "I'll have my dessert when I order it dumb waiter" beyond all logic)

That's not how diffusion works.  Let's say she places it in the corner of the pie because that's where someone would take the first bite.  The poison will remain in the tip of the pie.  Unlike liquid, it won't diffuse throughout the entire thing, but will be locked to a very small area around the crystal because solids don't move around. 

As we've been over it, it's an easy reach for someone my height, which Garlan is very close to. If every eye in the room has an explicit reason to have their eyes elsewhere, it's far from implausible. Humans suck at being all seeing observational beings.

None of this is true. The grandmother of the bride would be well within her prerogative to arrange one or more of the formal events at the feast. I'll have to check but I believe there is some text about Cersei complaining about all of the Tyrell's meddling in the wedding.

One servant with one pie for each guest at the head table, standing directly behind that guest as the pigeons are released. She knows exactly which one is for Tyrion, exactly where it will be when she needs to deploy the poison (when that one servant looks up at the pigeons), and she has a high probability of knowing which will be Tyrion's one and only bite -- the pointy end, which also happens to be the easiest to tuck the poison. Nobody else can see this split-second move, unlike with the chalice, and she can do it all by herself -- no reason to risk exposure by involving multiple co-conspirators.

It may be an easy reach, but it is all but impossible to do without being seen by people standing right next to you. And certainly way to risky for Lady O to jeopardize practically her entire family, all to remove a problem that has not even presented itself yet and probably won't for months, if not years, it ever.

[JonSnow4President]

28 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

None of this is true. The grandmother of the bride would be well within her prerogative to arrange one or more of the formal events at the feast. I'll have to check but I believe there is some text about Cersei complaining about all of the Tyrell's meddling in the wedding.

One servant with one pie for each guest at the head table, standing directly behind that guest as the pigeons are released. She knows exactly which one is for Tyrion, exactly where it will be when she needs to deploy the poison (when that one servant looks up at the pigeons), and she has a high probability of knowing which will be Tyrion's one and only bite -- the pointy end, which also happens to be the easiest to tuck the poison. Nobody else can see this split-second move, unlike with the chalice, and she can do it all by herself -- no reason to risk exposure by involving multiple co-conspirators.

It may be an easy reach, but it is all but impossible to do without being seen by people standing right next to you. And certainly way to risky for Lady O to jeopardize practically her entire family, all to remove a problem that has not even presented itself yet and probably won't for months, if not years, it ever.

Show me a single piece of evidence it happened.  And no, "I'll have my cheese when I f***ing want my cheese" is NOWHERE near the same level of detail.  That's in Texas.  Her orchestrating specific pies getting served to specific guests is on Jupiter.

 

[John Suburbs]

11 hours ago, Robert Baratheon's hammer said:

The Tyrells definitely had a motive to kill Joffrey. The whole discussion between Lady Olenna and Sansa about Joffrey being cruel to her would warrant Olenna being nervous about Margery marrying Joff. Consequently gives them the motive to kill him. She also happened to fiddle with Sansa before the feast while Littlefinger happens to know that someone was fiddling with Sansa. Just a coincidence? I think not.

Obviously It's hard to imagine the Olenna and Peter talking about killing the king but stranger things have happened.  

I'll admit, that conversation had me stumped for a while, but only because no matter what you believe, pie or wine, it makes no apparent sense.

First, we have to ask ourselves that it Lady O has already decided to kill Joffrey at this point, then she has already made up her mind about who and what he is. So why does she need Sansa to confirm anything?

So the only way to explain this is that Littlefinger has broached the subject about the assassination with Lady O but she is wavering because she doesn't know the truth about Joffrey.

OK, fine. But then, what exactly does Sansa tell Lady O about Joffrey that she should not already know by now? Joffrey declared in open court that if Ned confessed he would show "mercy." Then at the sept, he declared publicly that he was taking Ned's head anyway despite the pleadings of his mother, his bride-to-be and the advice of his small council. None of this was any big secret -- indeed, it goes down as part of the history of the realm. So from this Lady O can already see that Joffrey is not only cruel and heedless, but completely unaware of how his actions affect his own grip on power and the broader geopolitical situation he finds himself in. Ned's death, after all, removed a hostage that might have been enough to keep Robb from the field.

Then we have Sansa's beatings. Even if most of those was done in private, there is absolutely no way anyone but the king would be able to do this to his betrothed and live. And if there was any doubt that Joffrey was behind this, we have the scene in the bailey where Sansa is stripped and beaten in front of numerous high lords and ladies, including the Redwyne twins.

So even if Lady O is not aware of this because the war has disrupted the ravens and riders and all the other ways that houses keep abreast of what's going on the world, by the time she gets to the capital there are more than enough sources to inform her of exactly what kind of person Joffrey is.

So then what was the point of all that questioning? I turned it over for a while and then I decided at ask a different question: what does Lady O not know that she can only learn by questioning Sansa directly? And then the answer was obvious: she knows next to nothing about Sansa herself.

She grew up in the north and then came to the capital with Ned where she was presented at court as a courteous, polite, pretty girl of 13. Then afterward, she is largely shunned by everyone in the capital, since her family is in rebellion and the king is beating her on a regular basis. So there is very little information available about the real Sansa, and Lady O is smart enough to know that the way people present themselves publicly is not always their true selves -- in fact, Lady O puts on a pretty good charade herself.

So it seems clear that the point of all the questioning is not to learn anything about Joffrey, but Sansa. Is she smart, stupid, insipid? Is she a gold-digger, a plotter? Is she a piece or a player? Once Sansa is put on the spot and she ends up jeopardizing her own future by warning Margy away from Joffrey, Lady O concludes that Sansa is an honest, if not altogether bright, young lady -- and it is right after that that the Willas offer is made.

Nothing that Sansa reveals should affect Lady O's opinion of Joffrey, which is evidenced be her reaction to Sansa's story: "Oh, what a pity." This hardly sounds like a woman who is now suddenly terrified for the safety of her granddaughter. This is further reinforced by Margy's own comments on the subject and the sheer delight that Joffrey shows toward Margy before and during their wedding where he is seen twirling her around merrily and taking her by the hand with a "come, my lady." He's ecstatic about marrying a hot 17yo rather than mopey, childish Sansa.

So neither Lady O nor Margy have anything to fear at this point, there is not text supporting the notion that they are afraid, and there is ample text that disputes the idea that Joffrey is hostile to Margy in any way. So the idea that Lady O would take this extreme step, and place nearly all of House Tyrell in jeopardy, all because maybe, someday Joffrey might hurt Margaery is false. If and when Joff becomes a problem, there are plenty of ways to get rid of him, make it look like an accident, and then have Margy rule as Queen regent until her own son, who will be a thorough Tyrell a this point, just as Joffrey is a Lannister, is ready to rule. 

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

51 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Clearly purple wine at the bottom of a deep chalice vs. normal looking wine at the bottom of a normal-sized cup. That's about as clear evidence as you can get to determine which one has the more poison.

Again, you can't say the appearance of Cressen's wine is normal looking. There is no description given. He is about to attempt murder. He doesn't give a description of the wine. You cannot claim it is normal looking.

51 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I dunno, this is what you posted:

I was talking about their respective wines, not throat muscles.

51 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So how Joff's weaker throat muscles could hold out longer against both more wine and more potent poison is your paradox, not mine.

Again, I wasn't referring to their throat muscles.

51 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

For an extremely rare, extremely difficult poison to make in which ingredients must be combined and treated in an exact way, the idea that one batch would be five times faster than another is so unlikely that it is functionally impossible.

You are making assumptions here which aren't based on the text. There us no possible way for you to say for sure that a small difference in the creation process would not result in a small difference in poisoning to death timeline.