Keep your friends close and your enemies closer(LF/HtH theory)

[Lifestream]

Hello, I don't know if a similar thread exists (I did read something that might come off as the same but it's not quite what I had in mind) but I would like to talk about the possible importance of Harrold Hardying/Harry the Heir/Harry the Arse.

 

We know that if Sweetrobin were to die, Harry would become the heir of Jon Arryn as he is a distant relative (the rest of the heirs have coincidentally died or sent away somewhere where they cannot claim their right (some of the girls have turned to religion). This is revealed by LF to Alayne I think in her last chapter of AFFC.

 

Prior to that, the lords of the Vale (I think the ones who hold the most power and probably also represent the lesser houses) come together in order to remove LF from his position. They ask Sweetrobin and promise to leave LF and his daughter in peace as long as they move elsewhere. At the same time the Eyrie is under siege, but it doesn't seem they want to starve them but instead come to an agreement (them taking SR and LF leaving). Because of Lyn's Corbray's actions though, they compromise and give a year's time to LF to prove himself. Bronze Yohn is not especially happy for many reasons and doesn't hide how much he dislikes LF.

 

Now, moving on to Harry. What do we know of Harry? We know he's the next in line if SR were to die, he has the Arryn look, two bastard kids. Also that he is Anya Waynwood's ward, she was also one of the people opposed to LF. Also he was knighted by Bronze Yohn.

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"Our cousin Bronze Yohn had himself a mêlée at Runestone," Myranda Royce went on, oblivious, "a small one, just for squires. It was meant for Harry the Heir to win the honors, and so he did."

 

"Harry the Heir?"

 

"Lady Waynwood's ward. Harrold Hardyng. I suppose we must call him Ser Harry now. Bronze Yohn knighted him."

What could the lords be planning for him? This is just right after.

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"Oh." Alayne was confused. Why should Lady Waynwood's ward be her heir? She had sons of her own blood. One was the Knight of the Bloody Gate, Ser Donnel. She did not want to look stupid, though, so all she said was, "I pray he proves a worthy knight."

This is really funny and interesting. Sansa up to this point is not aware who Harry Hardying is. But it seems people casually call him Harry the Heir. Upon hearing Sansa assumes it means Harry is Lady Waynwood's heir. (later Littlefinger explains to her that he is actually Jon Arryn's). The difficult part is determing if the nick is in earnest or sarcastic. (as in he'll never be a heir, or he is as good as a Heir since it is widely accepted that Robert is frail/sick and is gonna die or peope are making sure that he will die within the year. It could also be both, what started as a sarcastic title ended up becoming real or close to real for the people who call him that. For example Lord Snow is a title given to Jon when he first joins the NW in order to humiliate him, but over time and with him becoming Lord Commander the meaning behind that title completely changes. Something similar happens to Sansa. She starts with the mocking Little Bird and it ends up becoming a somewhat more endearing way of referring to Sansa by the Hound, at least I don't think he's using it to mock her later in the books as in the beginning)

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Lady Myranda snorted. "I pray he gets the pox. He has a bastard daughter by some common girl, you know. My lord father had hoped to marry me to Harry, but Lady Waynwood would not hear of it. I do not know whether it was me she found unsuitable, or just my dowry." She gave a sigh. "I do need another husband. I had one once, but I killed him."

I'm not sure if the offer was made prior to the betrothal of Sansa and Harrold or after, but if it's after then it makes sense. Myranda can't compare to Sansa Stark.

This is may support the above claim, that Myranda was rejected because Lady Waynwood already agreed to someone else.

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“My Harry will be with them, though. I notice that you left him out. I shall never forgive you for stealing him away from me. He’s the boy I want to marry.”

This is in a very different tone, it could be that Myranda is becoming more familiar with and she's letting on more information than before. According to the quote above, which is taken by Alayne I TWOW, it appears that Myranda was cast aside in favor of Sansa, not that she was rejected because of her dowry or status, but because between the two Sansa is obviously the superior choice. (so Lady Waynwood was presented with Sansa as an offer before Lord Nestor offered his daughter or at the same time. If it had been way before LF made the suggestion, then Myranda would have no reason to say that Sansa "stole him away" even teasingly, because she would have no choice regardless of Sansa.)

Afterwards we learn that LF has secretly betrothed Alayne to Harry. But has he betrothed Alayne, his bastard daughter? Or Sansa Stark, the heir to Winterfell?

 

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"Lady Waynwood?" Alayne could hardly believe it. "Why would she marry one of her sons to . . . to a . . ."

 

". . . bastard? For a start, you are the Lord Protector's bastard, never forget. The Waynwoods are very old and very proud, but not as rich as one might think, as I discovered when I began buying up their debt. Not that Lady Anya would ever sell a son for gold. A ward, however . . . young Harry's only a cousin, and the dower that I offered her ladyship was even larger than the one that Lyonel Corbray just collected. It had to be, for her to risk Bronze Yohn's wroth. This will put all his plans awry. You are promised to Harrold Hardyng, sweetling, provided you can win his boyish heart . . . which should not be hard, for you."

Now, this is also rather interesting (like many other things here). Lady Waynwood doesn't offer a son, but a ward. This being Harry the Heir who the Lords are supporting and probably want in power. This choice also has a good payoff for everyone (and especially Lady Waynwood) and is safe because she keeps her sons out of harm's way if something were to go wrong. Lady Waynwood and probably the rest of the Lords (if they are indeed scheming) think they have struck gold with this match and that they've outsmarted LF (after all, the one year period is not supposed to be beneficial for LF. So basically the Lords think they'll remove LF from power without having to go to war)

So the general idea is that the Lords of the Vale are grooming Harry and scheming against Sweetrobin. I know there are many who believe it's LF who's trying to kill Robert, but if LF wants to remain in power then that makes no sense. It's pretty obvious that for many years Harrold has been under the influence of the Lords. Well he could manipulate Harry via Sansa. It's true, but he has no rights nor any power if Sansa reveals herself, Tyrion magically dies and she ends up marrying Harrold. Instead with Sweetrobin, LF can exercise his power as he is not off age yet and he is under his influence. Unlike Harry who is back by the Lords.

Another reason why I think the lords are scheming against Sweetrobin is this:

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"I don't love her. She's just the mule girl." Robert sniffled. "Maester Colemon put something vile in my milk last night, I could taste it. I told him I wanted sweetmilk, but he wouldn't bring me any. Not even when I commanded him. I am the lord, he should do what I say. No one does what I say."

This seems suspicious and it seems this is the first time it has happened. It's also interesting that the Maester put this vile thing after the Lords Declarant failed to get their way (getting Sweetrobin and LF walking away safely). Now look at how he reacts when confronted by Alayne:

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He followed her along the hallway and down the twisting stairs. "I am grateful for your intercession, my lady. You have a way with him." He hesitated. "Did you observe any shaking while you were with him?"

 

"His fingers trembled a little bit when I held his hand, that's all. He says you put something vile in his milk."

 

"Vile?" Colemon blinked at her, and the apple in his throat moved up and down. "I merely . . . is he bleeding from the nose?"

 

"No."

 

"Good. That is good." His chain clinked softly as he bobbed his head, atop a ridiculously long and skinny neck. "This descent . . . my lady, it might be safest if I mixed his lordship some milk of the poppy. Mya Stone could lash him over the back of her most surefooted mule whilst he slumbered."

 

"The Lord of the Eyrie cannot descend from his mountain tied up like a sack of barleycorn." Of that Alayne was certain. They dare not let the full extent of Robert's frailty and cowardice become too widely known, her father had warned her. I wish he were here. He would know what to do.

 

We don't really learn what the Maester actually put in his milk. He doesn't tell us. Maybe he's innocent and someone else did. But it's kind of interesting that he asks if he's bleeding from the nose? Why would he bleed? He didn't have an episode. But the maester did tell us that Robert's blood is very thin and he can't bleed him.

Also we learn here that Littlefinger is trying to hide how frail Robert really is (or how likely he is to die).

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"I try, my lady, yet his fits grow ever more violent, and his blood is so thin I dare not leech him any more. Sweetsleep . . . you are certain he was not bleeding from the nose?"

 

"He was sniffling," Alayne admitted, "but I saw no blood."

Despite what the Maester is telling Alayne, Sweetrobin appears to be doing better in fact. Not only on this chapter but the next as well. We're told that sweetmilk, can be toxic with time:

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"It was too soon. My lady, you do not understand. As I've told the Lord Protector, a pinch of sweetsleep will prevent the shaking, but it does not leave the flesh, and in time . . ."

But in Arya's chapter, where the Waif educates her about poisons, we are not told that Sweetsleep/Sweetmilk remain in the organism and can kill with time:

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Her part was mostly fetching, scrambling up ladders to find the herbs and leaves the waif required. "Sweetsleep is the gentlest of poisons," the waif told her, as she was grinding some with a mortar and pestle. "A few grains will slow a pounding heart and stop a hand from shaking, and make a man feel calm and strong. A pinch will grant a night of deep and dreamless sleep. Three pinches will produce that sleep that does not end. The taste is very sweet, so it is best used in cakes and pies and honeyed wines. Here, you can smell the sweetness." She let her have a whiff, then sent her up the ladders to find a red glass bottle.

-Cat of the Canals, AFFC

Either way, something weird is going on with Sweetrobin and his condition. He seems to be getting (as in he has less episodes), but the Maester is telling Alayne that Sweetrobin has gotten worse. Is he scheming with the Lords? Or is it someone else who slipped the vile thing in the milk that Robert received?

 

This begs, does LF suspect? I'd say there's a hint he does.

In Alayne I of TWOW, Sweetrobin makes a rather grownup assumption:

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 “I hate that Harry,” Sweetrobin said when she was gone. “He calls me cousin, but he’s just waiting for me to die so he can take the Eyrie. He thinks I don’t know, but I do.”

I don't think Sweetrobin reached to that conclusion by himself, but some people have been sprouting that stuff and Roberts has "accidentally" heard it.

He's also heard about Harry's bastard.

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 “The Lord of the Eyrie can do as he likes. Can’t I still love you, even if I have to marry her? Ser Harrold has a common woman. Benjicot says she’s carrying his bastard.”

Either way it seems that Robert has been quite a bit about Harry Hardying, and most of it unfavorable. It's also interesting that ideally the Lords Declarant wanted for Sweetrobin to be fostered at Runestone and get to meet Harry Hardying and probably form a bond with him. But surprisingly, Sweetrobin is disliking Harry and sees him as a rival. This reeks like LF's engineering.

Then why would LF betroth Harry when he is the puppet of Lords Declarant. Obviously to keep him close. If he can keep him close via Alayne/Sansa that means he can find more opportunities to have him killed by accident. If he dies then the only heir that remains Sweetrobin. So the Lords either have to accept it or they have to fight to overthrow LF.

LF is actually also preparing for war or a siege (if it comes to that). He is getting hedgeknights (the three we are introduced), accepts Alayne's suggestion of holding a tourney to find the 8 Winged Knights for Sweetrobin's protection AND he's hoarding food.

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 The vaults were large and dark and filthy. Alayne lit a taper and clutched her skirt as she made the descent. Near the bottom, she heard Lord Grafton’s booming voice, and followed.”The merchants are clamoring to buy, and the lords are clamoring to sell,” the Gulltowner was saying when she found them.  Though not a tall man, Grafton was wide, with thick arms and shoulders.  His hair was a dirty blond mop.  “How am I to stop that, my lord?”

     “Post guardsmen on the docks. If need be, seize the ships. How does not matter, so long as no food leaves the Vale. “

     “These prices, though,”  protested fat Lord Belmore,”  these prices are more than fair.”

     “You say more than fair, my lord.  I say less than we would wish.  Wait.  If need be, buy the food yourself and keep it stored.  Winter is coming.  Prices must go higher.”

     “Perhaps,”  said Belmore, doubtfully.

     “Bronze Yohn will not wait, ”  Grafton complained.  “He need not ship through Gulltown, he has his own ports.  Whilst we are hoarding our harvest, Royce and the other Lords Declarant will turn theirs into silver, you may be sure of that.”

     “Let us hope so,”  said Petyr.  “When their granaries are empty, they will need every scrap of that silver to buy sustenance from us.  And now if you will excuse me, my lord, it would seem my daughter has need of me.”

Now this may be misleading but I think it's two birds with one stone. The most obvious reason LF is not selling is because winter is coming (the Stark words here is literal as winter has arrived). The more subtle behind those words is that, difficult times are coming (could be war or a siege). We also learn that the Lords Declarant again (no one is excluded) and especially Bronze Yohn, are turning their food into silver. You can do many things with silver such as buying weapons. Bronze Yohn as we know is very vocal on not supporting LF and LF does regard him a dangerous man, so it's not impossible that he's preparing for his imminent war with LF. Regardless, those Lords do seem to be having plans about the silver either to overthrow LF or maybe for other reasons (we know there are quite a few Stark supporters the most fervent probably being Bronze Yohn. And in fact Davos is spared by Godric Borell and advised to visit White Harbor. Could White Harbor and some of the houses sworn to the Vale of Arryn be co-operating? The Vale lords wanted to join Robb during the war but Lysa would not allow them. Could this be the chance?)

 

To summarize:

Littlefinger doesn't really intend to have Sansa marry Harry the Heir because he benefits more from Sweetrobin being alive as he has been given power by Lysa till Robert comes of age. If Sansa reveals himself and their marriage manages to take place, then Littlefinger has no legal right to power. The Lords gave him a year because they expect that Sweetrobin will die or they are making sure he dies and it would surprise no one. They were also most likely in it regarding Harry and might even know who Alayne really is. They think they have outsmarted LF and gotten the better deal. They would probably be really happy to join House Arryn and House Stark through marriage as they have a favorable history with the North and had been trying to join Robb during his War. LF has other plans though, by keeping Harrold close to him via Sansa, he can find opportunities to kill him. It's really important to understand that he might be fanning the rumors regarding Harry wanting Sweetrobin dead, so if it came to harry dying it could be attributed that Harry was plotting to kill Robert Arryn but was caught. This might of course still spark a war but LF is preparing for it by storing/hoarding food and hiring people to work for him as well as allow the formation of Winged Knights.

 

Please let me know what you think and if I've missed anything. I tried to provide all the evidence I thought was essential and relevant, but I might have missed some holes.

[aryagonnakill#2]

You point out what I and many others have pointed out, that Robert dying is seemingly the worst thing that could happen to LF.  Still, I find the Vale very hard to predict.  What if LF really does simply believe Robert will die regardless, so he is planning for the eventuality?  What if there is no clear heir after Harry, and were both Harry and Robert killed there was simply an all out brawl for control, where LF thinks he may come out on top?  What if all he wants is Sansa married to Harry long enough to birth an heir and then to kill Harry, putting Sansa, or whoever she declares in charge of the Vale until her newborn comes of age?

The tourney itself seems to be nothing more than a way for LF to collect 8 highborn hostages and to kickstart the Sansa Harry relationship.  However the daggers seem ominous to me.  Perhaps LF plans to frame someone for a murder by stealing 1 of the daggers he gives as a gift and using it, then simply asking everyone to produce their daggers?

All of that tho is just LF's plans.  Lyn Corbray, the Royces, Sansa, the mad mouse, Sr. Kettleblack, hell even Tyrion could show up and throw everything into chaos.

[Lifestream]

33 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

You point out what I and many others have pointed out, that Robert dying is seemingly the worst thing that could happen to LF.  Still, I find the Vale very hard to predict.  What if LF really does simply believe Robert will die regardless, so he is planning for the eventuality?  What if there is no clear heir after Harry, and were both Harry and Robert killed there was simply an all out brawl for control, where LF thinks he may come out on top?  What if all he wants is Sansa married to Harry long enough to birth an heir and then to kill Harry, putting Sansa, or whoever she declares in charge of the Vale until her newborn comes of age?

The tourney itself seems to be nothing more than a way for LF to collect 8 highborn hostages and to kickstart the Sansa Harry relationship.  However the daggers seem ominous to me.  Perhaps LF plans to frame someone for a murder by stealing 1 of the daggers he gives as a gift and using it, then simply asking everyone to produce their daggers?

All of that tho is just LF's plans.  Lyn Corbray, the Royces, Sansa, the mad mouse, Sr. Kettleblack, hell even Tyrion could show up and throw everything into chaos.

I do believe it's bad for LF if Robert to die, but I think where I disagree with others is that LF is ok with Robert dying. After Lysa's death LF is more preoccupied than before with Robert's image. He tries to hide his frailty and he has just surrounded him with two squires. If anything LF seems to be putting more effort into Robert and surrounding him with potential allies. I really think LF is betting on Robert surviving long enough and definitely longer than Harry.

 

It wouldn't be impossible that LF has done whatever he can to ensure some alternative plans if his current ones were to fail.

[Lord Wraith]

14 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

You point out what I and many others have pointed out, that Robert dying is seemingly the worst thing that could happen to LF.  Still, I find the Vale very hard to predict.  What if LF really does simply believe Robert will die regardless, so he is planning for the eventuality?  What if there is no clear heir after Harry, and were both Harry and Robert killed there was simply an all out brawl for control, where LF thinks he may come out on top?  What if all he wants is Sansa married to Harry long enough to birth an heir and then to kill Harry, putting Sansa, or whoever she declares in charge of the Vale until her newborn comes of age?

The tourney itself seems to be nothing more than a way for LF to collect 8 highborn hostages and to kickstart the Sansa Harry relationship.  However the daggers seem ominous to me.  Perhaps LF plans to frame someone for a murder by stealing 1 of the daggers he gives as a gift and using it, then simply asking everyone to produce their daggers?

All of that tho is just LF's plans.  Lyn Corbray, the Royces, Sansa, the mad mouse, Sr. Kettleblack, hell even Tyrion could show up and throw everything into chaos.

Robert dying is the worst thing that could happen next to Lysa dying.  Baelish had to kill her to keep her from spilling any more secrets. I agree the daggers seem ripe for some kind of plot just like the dragonbone dagger. I hadn't thought of it before. I suspect that after the tournament and all the intrigue with it the Vale forces will be heading to the Riverlands. Baelish will take the Winged Knights with him so those families will be more inclinded to join. Also they will be fighting the Frey's which everyone can get behind.