A possible way for Arya to get to the wall (need help)

[Philokles]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

I have a theory that they are intending to manipulate her into being a source of assistance and information in Westeros.   In order to do this, they would either force her out or let her leave, but exact a price: that she help them in the future if they come to her.  Given that she is likely to be in a position of power and influence in the future, she would be a useful asset. 

It's either that or they are simply stringing her along until they can figure out why Jaqen sent her and what to do with her.

I reckon that is the case with all drop outs but the process is less nefarious than you are making it out to be. When the Kindly Man offers Arya this...

Quote

"You believe this is the only place for you." It was as if he'd heard her thoughts. "You are wrong in that. You would find softer service in the household of some merchant. Or would you sooner be a courtesan, and have songs sung of your beauty? Speak the word, and we will send you to the Black Pearl or the Daughter of the Dusk. You will sleep on rose petals and wear silken skirts that rustle when you walk, and great lords will beggar themselves for your maiden's blood. Or if it is marriage and children you desire, tell me, and we shall find a husband for you. Some honest apprentice boy, a rich old man, a seafarer, whatever you desire." Arya II, AFFC

...I believe the offer is genuine. The FM will help their acolytes who do not wish to continue or are not good enough and maintain a cordial relationship with them in return for hosting trainees, giving cover to assassins on a mission and reporting anything of interest. I imagine Brusco and Izembaro were once acolytes too.

[chrisdaw]

By boat from KL when she hears the plea for help Jon sends via Raven. She'll believe Jon and go to see for herself, the throne will disregard it. She'll be long clear of the FM by then.

[Nevets]

8 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

I reckon that is the case with all drop outs but the process is less nefarious than you are making it out to be. When the Kindly Man offers Arya this...

...I believe the offer is genuine. The FM will help their acolytes who do not wish to continue or are not good enough and maintain a cordial relationship with them in return for hosting trainees, giving cover to assassins on a mission and reporting anything of interest. I imagine Brusco and Izembaro were once acolytes too.

I pretty much agree with this.  I expect that have a network of washouts they can call on if they need to.  However, I can't help but think that they figured out early on that she was unsuitable as an assassin and would be of more use to them as a contact, and never had any real intention of seriously training her.  

Of course, Jaqen may have expected that she would never make it to Braavos in the first place.  When he gave her the coin, the expectation was that she would be reunited with her family, probably at Riverrun.  Even if the Red Wedding was in the works then, and Jaqen knew (doubtful), Arya would likely have not been involved and been stuck at Riverrun.  He probably gave her the coin as a sort of favor, never expecting it to be used.  

8 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

By boat from KL when she hears the plea for help Jon sends via Raven. She'll believe Jon and go to see for herself, the throne will disregard it. She'll be long clear of the FM by then.

Why would she be in KL in the first place?  There is nothing for her there.  She's far more likely to end up in the Riverlands or White Harbor, where she might hope to find friends or potential allies.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

Why would she be in KL in the first place?  There is nothing for her there.  She's far more likely to end up in the Riverlands or White Harbor, where she might hope to find friends or potential allies.

I think this depends on her motivation at the time. 

While I agree with you that she will seek travel to either the North ot the Riverlands, some big names on her list are still in KL.

Does she know that Tywin and Joffrey are dead? I can't recall at the moment. 

Also, have you found that quote about the Winterfell women in White Harbor? I briefly skimmed that Davos chapter and found no mention of it. It only gave me the quote I posted on page 1 of this thread. 

[Nevets]

8 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

I think this depends on her motivation at the time. 

While I agree with you that she will seek travel to either the North ot the Riverlands, some big names on her list are still in KL.

Does she know that Tywin and Joffrey are dead? I can't recall at the moment. 

Also, have you found that quote about the Winterfell women in White Harbor? I briefly skimmed that Davos chapter and found no mention of it. It only gave me the quote I posted on page 1 of this thread. 

She knows about Joffrey's death and Tywin was never on her list.  The only major names left are Gregor and Cersei.  Gregor is officially dead, and there are many more likely candidates to take care of Cersei than Arya.  The other names on the list are: Dunsen, who hasn't been seen since ACOK; Meryn Trant (who cares?); and Ilyn Payne, who is actually in the Riverlands, and doesn't really belong on the list anyway.

Besides which, she has never sought out any of the people on her list, only targeting them if they happen to fall into her orbit.  I don't really see that changing.  I would, however, not be at all surprised if George had her encounter Ser Ilyn, though.

The only quote I found is from Davos IV, where Manderly says "From tine to time, some wench escapes and lives to tell the tale."   I would expect that most of his victims are from Winterfell.  Given that White Harbor is the closest population center to the Dreadfort, I am assuming that at least some of them made it there, which would be how the Manderlys know about it.  It is likely that the women have remained in the area, as they would have no other place to go.

[Amris]

I want to point out that Arya does not necessarily have to be used as an assassin for the faceless men after all. It would make a lot of sense for them to use her in her role as Arya Stark of Winterfell. The reasoning is the following:

We can pretty safely assume the Faceless Men are working for the Iron Bank at the moment.

That's because after Cersei decides to have the Iron Trone default on the Iron Bank loans Arya in the House of Black and White witnesses the biggest meeting of the board she has ever seen (11 faceless men) discussing something important for hours and dealing out two hits.

'The Ugly Little Girl' chapter in ADWD (Arya's last chapter in the book) Arya witnesses a board meeting of the FM:

Eleven servants of the Many-Faced God gathered that night beneath the temple, more than she had ever seen together at one time. Only the lordling and the fat fellow arrived by the front door; the rest came by secret ways, through tunnels and hidden passages. They wore their robes of black and white, but as they took their seats each man pulled his cowl down to show the face he had chosen to wear that day. Their tall chairs were carved of ebony and weirwood, like the doors of the temple above.

"I know this man," she did hear a priest with the face of a plague victim say. "I know this man," the fat fellow echoed, as she was pouring for him. But the handsome man said, "I will give this man the gift. I know him not." Later the

For the Iron Bank Arya would be quite an important political tool in their campaign to support Stannis against the loan-defaulters that occupy the Iron Throne at the moment: Because the loan-defaulters (Tommen & Cersei) that the Iron Bank is working against now are allied with the Boltons. And Stannis has to defeat the Boltons if he ever hopes to take back the Iron Throne. And only if Stannis' campaign is successful can the Iron Bank hope to get back the loans Tycho probaby has agreed to hand out to Stannis now.

The Bolton rule depends largely on the fake marriage. Now if the Iron Bank can produce the real Arya that fake marriage falls apart - a major boost to Stannis. And -lo-and-behold! what a coincidence! - the Iron Bank can produce the real Arya! (Not a coincidence at all of course if you ask me. I think the faceless men have always recognized Arya's possible future political value).

Jon in ADwD unknowingly reminds us that this is the Iron Bank's usual modus operandi:

When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones. As poor plump Tommen may be about to learn. ... Unless Stannis is lying dead beneath the walls of Winterfell, he may just have won the Iron Throne.

[a black swan]

2 hours ago, Amris said:

I want to point out that Arya does not necessarily have to be used as an assassin for the faceless men after all. It would make a lot of sense for them to use her in her role as Arya Stark of Winterfell. The reasoning is the following:

We can pretty safely assume the Faceless Men are working for the Iron Bank at the moment.

That's because after Cersei decides to have the Iron Trone default on the Iron Bank loans Arya in the House of Black and White witnesses the biggest meeting of the board she has ever seen (11 faceless men) discussing something important for hours and dealing out two hits.

'The Ugly Little Girl' chapter in ADWD (Arya's last chapter in the book) Arya witnesses a board meeting of the FM:

Eleven servants of the Many-Faced God gathered that night beneath the temple, more than she had ever seen together at one time. Only the lordling and the fat fellow arrived by the front door; the rest came by secret ways, through tunnels and hidden passages. They wore their robes of black and white, but as they took their seats each man pulled his cowl down to show the face he had chosen to wear that day. Their tall chairs were carved of ebony and weirwood, like the doors of the temple above.

"I know this man," she did hear a priest with the face of a plague victim say. "I know this man," the fat fellow echoed, as she was pouring for him. But the handsome man said, "I will give this man the gift. I know him not." Later the

For the Iron Bank Arya would be quite an important political tool in their campaign to support Stannis against the loan-defaulters that occupy the Iron Throne at the moment: Because the loan-defaulters (Tommen & Cersei) that the Iron Bank is working against now are allied with the Boltons. And Stannis has to defeat the Boltons if he ever hopes to take back the Iron Throne. And only if Stannis' campaign is successful can the Iron Bank hope to get back the loans Tycho probaby has agreed to hand out to Stannis now.

The Bolton rule depends largely on the fake marriage. Now if the Iron Bank can produce the real Arya that fake marriage falls apart - a major boost to Stannis. And -lo-and-behold! what a coincidence! - the Iron Bank can produce the real Arya! (Not a coincidence at all of course if you ask me. I think the faceless men have always recognized Arya's possible future political value).

Jon in ADwD unknowingly reminds us that this is the Iron Bank's usual modus operandi:

When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones. As poor plump Tommen may be about to learn. ... Unless Stannis is lying dead beneath the walls of Winterfell, he may just have won the Iron Throne.

Great response!

This ties nicely with @sweetsunray theory involving Mercy’s mission to cause trouble for the Iron Throne envoy - who was in Braavos to ask for more loans and renegotiate. The overlapping of the IB & FM interests build up. Stannis very easily let the fake Arya go addressing her in a dismissive way. Perhaps Stannis has been informed that this Arya was a fake?

 “Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch.” Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. “A true king pays his debts.”
— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER

 

And Jon's plans to protect Arya involved waiting for the ships from Hardhome to return:

The best solution he could see would mean dispatching her to Eastwatch and asking Cotter Pyke to put her on a ship to someplace across the sea, beyond the reach of all these quarrelsome kings. It would need to wait until the ships returned from Hardhome, to be sure. She could return to Braavos with Tycho Nestoris. Perhaps the Iron Bank could help find some noble family to foster her. Braavos was the nearest of the Free Cities, though … which made it both the best and the worst choice. Lorath or the Port of Ibben might be safer. Wherever he might send her, though, Arya would need silver to support her, a roof above her head, someone to protect her. She was only a child.
— JON VIII, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS

 

It's intetesting how ironic most of this passage is. A girl pretending to be Arya will likely travel with Tycho back to Braavos. The real Arya already there, is working and being protected by the FM and by extension the Iron Bank.

[Amris]

4 hours ago, DutchArya said:

Great response!

[snip]

 

wow, thank you!

Can't wait to find out if we are right.

[Nevets]

On 2/19/2017 at 11:35 PM, Amris said:

We can pretty safely assume the Faceless Men are working for the Iron Bank at the moment.

Actually, we can assume nothing of the sort.   Both outfits are major institutions in Braavos, and I expect that the Sealord does business with both.  But the Iron Bank is a commercial bank, not a criminal enterprise (at least I don't think it is), so i wouldn't expect them to have regular contacts with the FM.  I expect that the Iron Bank has plenty of more mundane means to get paid.  It's success is probably due to a wide circle of contacts, a willingness to fund debtors' rivals, and the ability to raise funds to do so.

 

On 2/19/2017 at 11:35 PM, Amris said:

That's because after Cersei decides to have the Iron Trone default on the Iron Bank loans Arya in the House of Black and White witnesses the biggest meeting of the board she has ever seen (11 faceless men) discussing something important for hours and dealing out two hits.

This sort of thing is only going to work if you have someone waiting in the wings who you have reason to believe will pay.  Any immediate successors to Tommen may or may not pay.  Stannis is not "in the wings".  He si in the far north, and has his hands full.  It does appear, though, that he is the Iron Bank's backup plan.  But he is probably expected to do his own killing.

On 2/19/2017 at 11:35 PM, Amris said:

For the Iron Bank Arya would be quite an important political tool in their campaign to support Stannis against the loan-defaulters that occupy the Iron Throne at the moment: Because the loan-defaulters (Tommen & Cersei) that the Iron Bank is working against now are allied with the Boltons. And Stannis has to defeat the Boltons if he ever hopes to take back the Iron Throne. And only if Stannis' campaign is successful can the Iron Bank hope to get back the loans Tycho probaby has agreed to hand out to Stannis now.

The Bolton rule depends largely on the fake marriage. Now if the Iron Bank can produce the real Arya that fake marriage falls apart - a major boost to Stannis. And -lo-and-behold! what a coincidence! - the Iron Bank can produce the real Arya! (Not a coincidence at all of course if you ask me. I think the faceless men have always recognized Arya's possible future political value).

The Iron Bank has ot yet given Stannis any money.  Tycho doesn't travel around with gold coins in his saddlebags, but parchment and a seal.  He is going to give Stannis documents, the Westeros equivalent of a check-book.   Essentially, Stannis is getting a line of credit.  If he falls flat on his face, it is unlikely that he will get a chance to spend much if any of the Iron Bank's money.

The Bolton rule depends on having Arya in the possession.  She is essentially a hostage.  That ship has sailed.  She is gone and isn't going back.  Jeyne Poole will cheerfully impale herself on someone's sword before returning to Ramsay.  The Boltons, right now, are living on borrowed time.  

As I've pointed out above, I think the FM have Arya for herself, but because she would be a valuable contact in Westeros.

On 2/19/2017 at 11:35 PM, Amris said:

Jon in ADwD unknowingly reminds us that this is the Iron Bank's usual modus operandi:

When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones. As poor plump Tommen may be about to learn. ... Unless Stannis is lying dead beneath the walls of Winterfell, he may just have won the Iron Throne.

In other words, if princes don't pay, they fund and otherwise support rivals (there are always rivals).   They just happen to have the resources to be effective at it.

On 2/20/2017 at 2:12 AM, DutchArya said:

Stannis very easily let the fake Arya go addressing her in a dismissive way. Perhaps Stannis has been informed that this Arya was a fake?

 “Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch.” Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. “A true king pays his debts.”
— THEON I, THE WINDS OF WINTER

I see no indication that Stannis has been informed that she is a fake.  The comment about paying his debts likely relates to Jon's help in sending Tycho to him.  Besides, if Tycho knew, why didn't he tell Jon?  It would certainly have made his job easier, and Jon is widely known to be Ned Stark's son, and therefore Arya's brother.

[Amris]

8 hours ago, Nevets said:

[snip]

 Tycho doesn't travel around with gold coins in his saddlebags, but parchment and a seal.  He is going to give Stannis documents, the Westeros equivalent of a check-book. 

[snip]

Thank you for pointing out the obvious.

[chrisdaw]

On ‎18‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 10:35 AM, Nevets said:

Why would she be in KL in the first place?

Maybe the FM send her there, maybe she goes to meet her sister. I don't know and don't really care to figure it out, the foreshadowing puts her there so there she'll be.

[Endymion I Targaryen]

GRRM could be super creative and have Arya infiltrate Dany's army and then all of them head to Dragonstone/Vale. From there Arya takes a ship to Eastwatch.

Other choices: Arya leaves with Harys Swift.

Massey goes to Braavos. Arya hears stories about the rescue of Arya Stark in Winterfell and goes with him.