An idle thought re: the Greyjoy Rebellion

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Watching some videos which posit that the timeline as popularly understood is wrong, it got me thinking a little bit.

Why exactly would Balon Greyjoy rebel against Robert Baratheon when he did?

Conventionally, it's understood that Balon rebelled in 289AC, some 5 or 6 years after Robert's victory. Now, I'm not here to posit that it was much closer than that - although frankly the closer the better - but we can all agree that it's a bit weird. Robert's Rebellion is the time to rebel: hell, they can even offer Robert naval support in exchange for acknowledging Iron Independence; at the least, they can declare independence when nobody else can spare the troops to do anything about it.

Instead they apparently wait 5 years until Robert's hold on the throne is secure, then the rebel, and are predictably shut down. What gives?

Well, here's my wild, tinfoil-hatted contention (that I just pulled out of my arse): maybe Robert's hold on the throne wasn't that secure. Let's take a look:

In his pro column: he's got the North, Riverlands, Westerlands, Vale, Stormlands and Crownlands on lock. (And the Iron Islands, at least on paper.)

In his con column: there are still pro-Targaryen lords up and down Westeros, the Tyrells aren't invested in his reign, the Targaryen heirs are hidden somewhere in Essos (or in Dorne...), and the Dornish aren't too happy with him at all.

This constitutes a problem. And if you don't think so, remember that the Targaryens enjoyed more support than this against the Blackfyres, but Bloodraven was still worried.

Any new king ought to make it plain to his vassals that he's not to be trifled with; Robert's reign was far too weak for comfort.

And then, the Greyjoys stupidly rebel, and the other kingdoms unite to smash them, and from then on Robert was secure on the Iron Throne.

Coincidence?

What if Jon Arryn (probably thru Varys) gently prodded Balon into rebellion?

Here are some further wild contentions with little-to-no textual evidence:

• Jon Arryn was trying to dissuade the Dornish from rebelling; he'd already had to go to Dorne and talk down Prince Oberyn (assuming the timeline is right), and persuade he needed to make the point to them again. I notice that Quentyn's fostering takes place not long after the Greyjoy Rebellion - could the two somehow be connected?
• Another event that might be connected: some have posited that Dany was being sheltered by the Hightowers in her early life, but something happened to freak out Leyton Hightower, and he kicked her out and retreated to his tower. If this happened, it was just after the Rebellion... perhaps he thought there was a message for him? (I note he inexplicably married off his daughter to Jorah Mormont around the same time.)
• Balon supposedly claimed he'd never actually sworn fealty to Robert in the first place. This seems relevant, somehow - perhaps they really had promised Balon his freedom, and then went back on their word? Or perhaps, knowing he might rebel, they never pushed the matter... until they did.
• Maybe Robert's position was even weaker than I've said, because the Starks weren't necessarily on side. We don't really know how long it took Ned and Robert to reconcile after their big fight at King's Landing. Ned said it took their shared grief over Lyanna's passing to mend the relationship, but he doesn't actually say when it happened. And the first thing Robert did when he got to Winterfell was visit Lyanna's grave. This seemed funny at the time - but maybe he'd never had a chance to say goodbye before. Do we know for certain that Ned actually took Lyanna's corpse through King's Landing? Perhaps Balon was convinced that Ned Stark at least wouldn't cooperate with Robert.
• Perhaps Balon had a double-agent in his ranks. (Best guesses: maesters, Euron, Rodrik Harlaw.) Stannis was able to catch the Iron Fleet in a trap: either he's really lucky, really clever, or they had someone on the inside. And note too: the Ironborn burnt the Lannister fleet at harbour. Removing Lannister naval power makes them more dependent on the crown, which might be a good thing for people as ambitious as the Lannisters. (Probably would've been better to do the Redwyne fleet, but they were further away and anyway they weren't married into the royal family.)

Eh?

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

If Jon Arryn thought a common enemy was needed to unite the 7K, then surely the Dornish were the most appealing option, seeing as they're considered even more foreign/outsiders than the Ironborn and are way more despised, particularly by the Reach, aka the region where Robert's hold was the weakest. So it begs the question of why Jon Arryn even bothered to go to Dorne to negotiate a peace treaty if he wanted a war. 

[Red Man Racey]

53 minutes ago, Lyin' Ned said:

If Jon Arryn thought a common enemy was needed to unite the 7K, then surely the Dornish were the most appealing option, seeing as they're considered even more foreign/outsiders than the Ironborn and are way more despised, particularly by the Reach, aka the region where Robert's hold was the weakest. So it begs the question of why Jon Arryn even bothered to go to Dorne to negotiate a peace treaty if he wanted a war. 

If this theory is true, and I'm not saying it is, the Ironborn would probably be the more attractive option because Dorne might actually be able to win, or at least fight to a draw and secure their independence. They were able to hold out for quite a while against the Targaryens and their dragons. How much more success could be expected when the Iron Throne no longer has access to flying, fire-breathing tanks?

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

6 minutes ago, Red Man Racey said:

If this theory is true, and I'm not saying it is, the Ironborn would probably be the more attractive option because Dorne might actually be able to win, or at least fight to a draw and secure their independence. They were able to hold out for quite a while against the Targaryens and their dragons. How much more success could be expected when the Iron Throne no longer has access to flying, fire-breathing tanks?

Good point, but I think the Ironborn could do the most immediate damage, seeing how everyone freaked out about that Dagon (?) dude who used to raid the west coast in Dunk's time and now with Euron. The Dornish would basically stay home and be annoying, but the Ironborn can wreck sh*t up.

(That makes me wonder why Balon's dumb ass didn't seek an alliance with the similarity disenfranchised Tyrells/Redwynes, but that's another discussion)

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

21 minutes ago, Lyin' Ned said:

Good point, but I think the Ironborn could do the most immediate damage, seeing how everyone freaked out about that Dagon (?) dude who used to raid the west coast in Dunk's time and now with Euron. The Dornish would basically stay home and be annoying, but the Ironborn can wreck sh*t up.

(That makes me wonder why Balon's dumb ass didn't seek an alliance with the similarity disenfranchised Tyrells/Redwynes, but that's another discussion)

Pride.

Also, maybe Jon Arryn took what opportunities he had, and he had opportunities with the Ironborn that he didn't with Dorne. Doran Martell, for instance, isn't so rash or stupid as Balon Greyjoy.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I don't think Jon Arryn would deliberately nudge anyone into war, though Robert's hold on the throne still being tenuous does make sense.

The Greyjoys probably didn't rebel during RR because at the time Aerys was the bigger threat and they felt it necessary to join in that fight. They'd been independent before the Targaryens showed up so toppling one had to seem incredibly appealing. 

After that they probably needed time to recover from any losses incurred during the war. It was also a good idea to wait and see how things were going to go with Robert in charge. After having participated in one rebellion against one king (and winning), starting another one against another king would have been a pretty easy sell to the people of the Iron Islands, but that doesn't mean they were ready to do it as soon as the first one was over.

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

49 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I don't think Jon Arryn would deliberately nudge anyone into war, though Robert's hold on the throne still being tenuous does make sense.

The Greyjoys probably didn't rebel during RR because at the time Aerys was the bigger threat and they felt it necessary to join in that fight. They'd been independent before the Targaryens showed up so toppling one had to seem incredibly appealing. 

After that they probably needed time to recover from any losses incurred during the war. It was also a good idea to wait and see how things were going to go with Robert in charge. After having participated in one rebellion against one king (and winning), starting another one against another king would have been a pretty easy sell to the people of the Iron Islands, but that doesn't mean they were ready to do it as soon as the first one was over.

 

What losses?

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I don't think Jon Arryn would deliberately nudge anyone into war, though Robert's hold on the throne still being tenuous does make sense.

The Greyjoys probably didn't rebel during RR because at the time Aerys was the bigger threat and they felt it necessary to join in that fight. They'd been independent before the Targaryens showed up so toppling one had to seem incredibly appealing. 

After that they probably needed time to recover from any losses incurred during the war. It was also a good idea to wait and see how things were going to go with Robert in charge. After having participated in one rebellion against one king (and winning), starting another one against another king would have been a pretty easy sell to the people of the Iron Islands, but that doesn't mean they were ready to do it as soon as the first one was over.

 

They didn't rebel until after the Trident because Quellon just straight up didn't want to get involved. He was sick as hell at the time and tired from his sons browbeating him.

The real reason why Balon didn't rebel until 5 or 6 years after? He had to consolidate his power and build the Iron Fleet.

 

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

What losses?

I don't know. I figured if they were involved in RR they probably lost some people and/or ships. We don't get as much info about sea battles but there must have been some.

ETA: 12 longships sank during the Battle at the Mander. Some of them were Ironborn ships, though the exact split is apparently unknown. Any of the Ironborn on said ships would have likely died. Lord Quellon was killed in the battle as well.

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They didn't rebel until after the Trident because Quellon just straight up didn't want to get involved. He was sick as hell at the time and tired from his sons browbeating him.

The real reason why Balon didn't rebel until 5 or 6 years after? He had to consolidate his power and build the Iron Fleet.

 

 

I forgot to mention that. Was thinking it, but the thought didn't get as far as my fingers.

My knowledge of the Ironborn is definitely incomplete. Haven't spent much time on them.

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I forgot to mention that. Was thinking it, but the thought didn't get as far as my fingers.

My knowledge of the Ironborn is definitely incomplete. Haven't spent much time on them.

You basically said everything but those exact words. I just wanted to put a finer point on it. I was interested to read that part of the world book.

[Lord Wraith]

10 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Watching some videos which posit that the timeline as popularly understood is wrong, it got me thinking a little bit.

Why exactly would Balon Greyjoy rebel against Robert Baratheon when he did?

Conventionally, it's understood that Balon rebelled in 289AC, some 5 or 6 years after Robert's victory. Now, I'm not here to posit that it was much closer than that - although frankly the closer the better - but we can all agree that it's a bit weird. Robert's Rebellion is the time to rebel: hell, they can even offer Robert naval support in exchange for acknowledging Iron Independence; at the least, they can declare independence when nobody else can spare the troops to do anything about it.

Instead they apparently wait 5 years until Robert's hold on the throne is secure, then the rebel, and are predictably shut down. What gives?

Well, here's my wild, tinfoil-hatted contention (that I just pulled out of my arse): maybe Robert's hold on the throne wasn't that secure. Let's take a look:

In his pro column: he's got the North, Riverlands, Westerlands, Vale, Stormlands and Crownlands on lock. (And the Iron Islands, at least on paper.)

In his con column: there are still pro-Targaryen lords up and down Westeros, the Tyrells aren't invested in his reign, the Targaryen heirs are hidden somewhere in Essos (or in Dorne...), and the Dornish aren't too happy with him at all.

This constitutes a problem. And if you don't think so, remember that the Targaryens enjoyed more support than this against the Blackfyres, but Bloodraven was still worried.

Any new king ought to make it plain to his vassals that he's not to be trifled with; Robert's reign was far too weak for comfort.

And then, the Greyjoys stupidly rebel, and the other kingdoms unite to smash them, and from then on Robert was secure on the Iron Throne.

Coincidence?

What if Jon Arryn (probably thru Varys) gently prodded Balon into rebellion?

Here are some further wild contentions with little-to-no textual evidence:

• Jon Arryn was trying to dissuade the Dornish from rebelling; he'd already had to go to Dorne and talk down Prince Oberyn (assuming the timeline is right), and persuade he needed to make the point to them again. I notice that Quentyn's fostering takes place not long after the Greyjoy Rebellion - could the two somehow be connected?
• Another event that might be connected: some have posited that Dany was being sheltered by the Hightowers in her early life, but something happened to freak out Leyton Hightower, and he kicked her out and retreated to his tower. If this happened, it was just after the Rebellion... perhaps he thought there was a message for him? (I note he inexplicably married off his daughter to Jorah Mormont around the same time.)
• Balon supposedly claimed he'd never actually sworn fealty to Robert in the first place. This seems relevant, somehow - perhaps they really had promised Balon his freedom, and then went back on their word? Or perhaps, knowing he might rebel, they never pushed the matter... until they did.
• Maybe Robert's position was even weaker than I've said, because the Starks weren't necessarily on side. We don't really know how long it took Ned and Robert to reconcile after their big fight at King's Landing. Ned said it took their shared grief over Lyanna's passing to mend the relationship, but he doesn't actually say when it happened. And the first thing Robert did when he got to Winterfell was visit Lyanna's grave. This seemed funny at the time - but maybe he'd never had a chance to say goodbye before. Do we know for certain that Ned actually took Lyanna's corpse through King's Landing? Perhaps Balon was convinced that Ned Stark at least wouldn't cooperate with Robert.
• Perhaps Balon had a double-agent in his ranks. (Best guesses: maesters, Euron, Rodrik Harlaw.) Stannis was able to catch the Iron Fleet in a trap: either he's really lucky, really clever, or they had someone on the inside. And note too: the Ironborn burnt the Lannister fleet at harbour. Removing Lannister naval power makes them more dependent on the crown, which might be a good thing for people as ambitious as the Lannisters. (Probably would've been better to do the Redwyne fleet, but they were further away and anyway they weren't married into the royal family.)

Eh?

Eh maybe?

I always secretly hoped it was the Martell brother's using the Ironborn as a cat's paw to judge the true unity of the rest of the realm. We know that Rodrick Harlaw is a reader of Marwyn's and I have always theorized that Marwyn is an agent of the Dornish. Probably just dreaming though.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1 hour ago, Lord Wraith said:

Eh maybe?

I always secretly hoped it was the Martell brother's using the Ironborn as a cat's paw to judge the true unity of the rest of the realm. We know that Rodrick Harlaw is a reader of Marwyn's and I have always theorized that Marwyn is an agent of the Dornish. Probably just dreaming though.

Marwyn is a relative of Doran, so sayeth @M Tootles

[Kingmonkey]

13 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Why exactly would Balon Greyjoy rebel against Robert Baratheon when he did?

Balon Greyjoy isn't exactly a strategic genius. I don't see any reason why the Greyjoy Rebellion would have been any better thought out than his entry into the Wot5k.

[Nocturne]

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

Balon Greyjoy isn't exactly a strategic genius. I don't see any reason why the Greyjoy Rebellion would have been any better thought out than his entry into the Wot5k.

Pretty much this, him rebelling with the kind of resources he had at his disposal was always a bad idea. Let's assume he would rebel right after or during Robert's Rebellion.

Robert and company win the throne, Robert has a falling out with Ned. At this point the Greyjoy's are in full rebellion against the throne. How do you justify a rebellion to your banner man if you're Balon? Well you most likely promise them: "boys its back to the good times, we gonna raid, rape etc".

Now where do you raid rape? Unless you go all the way down and fight the Tyrells, you're either stuck with Lannisters, Starks or Tully's.

You attack the Lannisters, who are part of the newly formed crown power ( a integral part at that), you're gonna have the full might of the crown bearing down on you and squash you like a bug.

You attack Stark lands, and they make peace with Robert, join their armies and again squash the weak  armies of Balon.

You attack the Tully's, again Starks join in, see above.

To simply conclude, Balon is plain stupid.

 

 

 

 

[Lord Wraith]

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Marwyn is a relative of Doran, so sayeth @M Tootles

My pet theory that he is Prince Lewyn's bastard with his paramour... who may be Olenna Tyrell nee Redwyne. I like the theory but it's not conclusive by any means.  

What does M Tooles think?

[Ser_Jon_General]

Looking through the history of the Iron Islands it's almost as if the unofficial motto of the islands should be And then we did something stupid.

Every time they've had the chance to solidify their power, or extend their lands, they've done something monumentally stupid and lost it all.  They have no allies outside of the islands since they've pissed off every other kingdom at one point or another, frankly it's a miracle that the rest of the kingdoms haven't come together at some point in the last 8000 years and just wiped them all out.

Balon's plan was probably to simply hope that Robert wasn't powerful enough, or didn't care enough, to rouse the rest of the lands against the Iron Born.  He might believe that the Iron Born can throw off a minor invasion, or that they have a fleet strong enough to prevent one in the first place.  Yet he doesn't grasp the enmity that many of the other houses have for the Iron Born, millennia of grudges built up thanks to their raiding.  A chance for glory & the opportunity to kill Iron Born raiders?  You can guarantee that plenty of pissed off houses are going to join in.

In short, Balon is a moron.  There doesn't need to be an agent-provocateur sowing the seeds of rebellion, he's stupid enough to do all of that himself.  The history of the islands suggest that they were always likely to do something like this, they are fundamentally unable to stop themselves from doing something stupid.

[shadows and dust]

22 hours ago, Lyin' Ned said:

Good point, but I think the Ironborn could do the most immediate damage, seeing how everyone freaked out about that Dagon (?) dude who used to raid the west coast in Dunk's time and now with Euron. The Dornish would basically stay home and be annoying, but the Ironborn can wreck sh*t up.

Without positing on the OP, but you're answering your own question here. If the goal is to unite the realm through quashing a rebellion, it's best to do so against a firework than a long burning coal. The IB are more likely to score some early wins, drum up 7K outrage, motivate a coming together, then promptly burn out. Nothing kills patriotism quite so well as a protracted land war with minimal gains, far away from anything of note. (hello Operation Iraqi Freedom) The Dornish staying home and being boring is much less appealing if the goal is locking down the IT.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

14 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Balon Greyjoy isn't exactly a strategic genius. I don't see any reason why the Greyjoy Rebellion would have been any better thought out than his entry into the Wot5k.

It was worse thought out: in Wot5K his plan isn't that bad, although it takes Theon to add the masterstroke (and then to fuck it up royally). The North is defenceless, and none of their allies have seapower or a presence on the west coast? The fleets Redwyne and royal are occupied elsewhere? Get involved.

The North might even end up backing your independence play against the rest of the realm, although I doubt Balon was thinking of that. (But when you have 'em by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.)

11 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

My pet theory that he is Prince Lewyn's bastard with his paramour... who may be Olenna Tyrell nee Redwyne. I like the theory but it's not conclusive by any means.  

What does M Tooles think?

He's the middle child between Doran's mother and Lewyn. It's in here somewhere:

https://asongoficeandtootles.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/mega-tinfoil-essay-part-1-the-elder-brother-of-the-quiet-isle/

 

[Kingmonkey]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

It was worse thought out: in Wot5K his plan isn't that bad, although it takes Theon to add the masterstroke (and then to fuck it up royally). The North is defenceless, and none of their allies have seapower or a presence on the west coast? The fleets Redwyne and royal are occupied elsewhere? Get involved.

They aren't defenseless because only about half the muster of the North has gone south, and the North is a huge land area most of which is inaccessible by sea and thus a poor target for longboat raiders. There are no worthwhile permanent gains to be made in the North, only enemies. Attacking the North at this time of vulnerability merely gave the Iron Born a window of opportunity for short-term gain, followed by long term pain. 

On the other hand, the King in the North is obviously open to the idea of independent kings, is fighting in the Westerlands, and the Westerlands are far more vulnerable to attack by sea -- and far wealthier on that coast, too. Balon would have been far better served by attacking the Westerlands and agreeing a pact of mutual assistance with the North & Riverlands. There's no pact to be made with the Lannisters at this point,  as they are the power behind the Iron Throne and will be much less willing to accept an independent seastone chair. 

Balon is dumb as a brick.  He makes stupid decision after stupid decision, and they always end badly.