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An idle thought re: the Greyjoy Rebellion


Illyrio Mo'Parties

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This is because of one of the few things/traits Robert did well in his reign. Forgiveness.

Not only was he able to see past differences but was able to make allies from enemies and did not really punish the loyalists (which was smart of him considering even thinking on replacing say the Tyrell would have created another 50/50 war) which meant that apart from lack of royal favor and higher taxes the came off unscathed.

Balons plan most likely was to hope that the dislike in Robert was still there, that the Reach wouldn´t use their fleet, that some might even join him to take advantage of the situation. But, like in the Wot5k Balon didn´t really care to check said displeasure, just as he did one cruicial mistake in not making an alliance with the throne before attacking the North.

So, instead of a rebellion where he only faced the North (with no fleet), the Vale (wrong side), parts of the Riverlands and Stormlands and the kingly fleet (most likely pretty destroyed and low in strength after RR, 6 years is not that much to restore a fleet) - he thought it likely that said declaration couldn´t be crushed too easily and that sooner or later the independence would be seen as legitimate. 

If Robert have been of the punishing type, Balon would have been far, far harder to crush.

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2 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

They aren't defenseless because only about half the muster of the North has gone south, and the North is a huge land area most of which is inaccessible by sea and thus a poor target for longboat raiders. There are no worthwhile permanent gains to be made in the North, only enemies. Attacking the North at this time of vulnerability merely gave the Iron Born a window of opportunity for short-term gain, followed by long term pain. 

On the other hand, the King in the North is obviously open to the idea of independent kings, is fighting in the Westerlands, and the Westerlands are far more vulnerable to attack by sea -- and far wealthier on that coast, too. Balon would have been far better served by attacking the Westerlands and agreeing a pact of mutual assistance with the North & Riverlands. There's no pact to be made with the Lannisters at this point,  as they are the power behind the Iron Throne and will be much less willing to accept an independent seastone chair. 

Balon is dumb as a brick.  He makes stupid decision after stupid decision, and they always end badly. 


Yeah, you're not wrong. But I don't think his plan was totally awful, or at least unsalvageable.

The bulk of northern strength - including, crucially, most of the knights and noblemen and the king himself - are trapped below the Neck as soon as Balon Greyjoy takes Moat Cailin. If Robb wants to ever get back north, he needs to (a) ally with the Vale, (b) fight his way through to a port city and commandeer whatever vessels happen to be there, or (c) take Moat Cailin from the south, which has never been done before.

He could have used this excellent leverage to extract concessions from Robb.

Of course, he didn't, because he really was stupid. What he actually wanted was not just independence but a return to the Old Way, and who's going to agree to that? "This clause here where you reserve the right to raid our villages, rape, pillage, loot and murder - can we cross that one out?" "Nope - that's a dealbreaker!"

Thinking about it, the north's best hope would've been to kill Balon and let Theon take over. And there is a theory that the Capt. of the Myraham is a Mallister agent who did just that, albeit way too late for it to make a difference.

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7 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

It was worse thought out: in Wot5K his plan isn't that bad, although it takes Theon to add the masterstroke (and then to fuck it up royally). The North is defenceless, and none of their allies have seapower or a presence on the west coast? The fleets Redwyne and royal are occupied elsewhere? Get involved.

The North might even end up backing your independence play against the rest of the realm, although I doubt Balon was thinking of that. (But when you have 'em by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.)

He's the middle child between Doran's mother and Lewyn. It's in here somewhere:

https://asongoficeandtootles.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/mega-tinfoil-essay-part-1-the-elder-brother-of-the-quiet-isle/

 

Interesting possibility.

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