Does fAegon annoy anyone else?

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't recall reading so much about House Redwyne to determine with absolute certainty that Redwyne would never turn on Tyrell. But I do agree that Redwyne power is about to be reduced dramatically.

There are two crucial marriages between the Tyrells and Redwynes - Olenna and Luthor, and Paxter and Mina. Even if the Redwynes had been fierce Blackfyre loyalists in the past - and we have no reason to believe that - family should be much more important than politics.

And while there are strong hints that Mathis Rowan is still a Targaryen loyalist Mace and Paxter both revealed that they don't care about the murder of the Targaryen children.

The point there is that it makes no sense to assume the Redwynes are secret Blackfyre loyalists/friends of the Golden Company or inclined to betray the Tyrells.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Man, the Ironmen are really, really powerful... They have pinned down the might of Hightower, and those same Ironmen have Garlan and Willas occupied... oh, and the Redwynes are about to be crushed by the Ironmen. And I almost forgot about the Iron Fleet off in Slaver's Bay. Good thing the Ironmen abandoned the North, or they might be stretched a bit thin.

Still, we know that Willas and Garlan have raised an army and are building ships right now to retake the Shields. They would raised those men from the Reach and thus many lords will now have less men than they would if they had not done that, and while the Ironborn threat is still there (and even more so after Euron has dealt with Paxter) those lords have actually good reason to fear for the safety of their castles, villages, and families if their lands are close to Mander. And that is the case for quite a few lords in the Reach. Those men would be stupid if they began sending men away to fight for Aegon in the Stormlands.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In Arianne II, Winds, don't we learn that 

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Mace's army in the Crownlands is on it's way to fight Aegon, and that Aegon intends to meet them? 

If Aegon defeats Mace, I think Willas will be hard pressed to retain the loyalty of the lords of the Reach. 

Why should he? Did Robb lose control of the Northmen after Joffrey executed Ned? Did they suddenly declare for Joffrey?

Willas is right now doing his best to defeat the Ironborn threat. Whatever transpires in the Stormlands and Crownlands is not going to affect things there because Aegon vs. Tommen does not affect the Ironborn threat.

And if the Redwyne fleet is defeated by Euron the Reach is going to unite against that threat, trying to defend their homeland as best they can. The majority will simply not care who sits on the Iron Throne.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Unless Manderly had his fingers crossed behind his back, Stannis is earning the support of the North by sweeping up the Ironmen (damn there are a lot of those buggers), and fighting Bolton and Frey. Aegon might have the same opportunity by fighting against the Ironmen, and perhaps the Lamnisters if Cersei gets back to mucking up the great western alliance, and perhaps even Daenerys's foreign army (although I think those two will ally before they fight). 

I was speaking about the situation back in ACoK not what's happening right now. Imagine some guy sending few or no troops to Robb and then ignoring the threat to the North but instead raising troops for another pretender. That just wouldn't be very popular in that region, and it wouldn't be in the Reach where people are apparently much closer connected than in the other regions.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I know, huh? That's a good reason not to say things like, oh that will never happen, or that makes no sense. 

But even that won't result in many actual men joining Aegon's army unless there are a lot of survivors from the Tyrell army marching against him. Or unless Mace/Tarly/whoever is charge of the Tyrell men back in the capital (if we assume he has 10,000 or more men stay back there to keep the peace) is going to deliver the city to Aegon without a fight. Then he will get quite a few fresh troops. In any other scenario it is really unlikely that a lot of Reach lords show up with thousands of men in his camp. Not unless the threat Euron poses suddenly disappears.

Everything depends not only on the battle between Aegon and the Golden Company but also on the situation in KL. If Tommen were to die or disappear before the battle, if Margaery's trial goes awry, etc. then there might not even be a battle because Mace is not going to defend Tommen the Bastard or Tommen the Widower or Tommen the Corpse.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I do agree that Lannister is nearly spent, but haven't you argued elsewhere that Cersei might ally with Euron? 

Sure, but that is going to take time. Cersei and Euron can later take KL from Aegon (and perhaps even kill the boy if he is stupid) but that is going to take time. They won't team up while Cersei's children are still alive and while Euron still hopes he will marry Dany in the near future. It is going to take some time to raise another army in the West, and one wonders whether Cersei will be able to retain the loyalty of the Lords of the West if she actually marries and teams up with Euron the Mad.

But this plot line won't affect Aegon's rise to power. It might have to do with some serious attempts to topple him, though.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Didn't you start this post by saying there was no way Redwyne or Hightower would choose to, or be able to, join Aegon over Tyrell? 

Yeah, because the Redwynes will no longer exist as a house after Euron crushes Paxter and takes the Arbor, and the Hightowers will either have to use all their resources to defend Oldtown against Euron or they will bend the knee to him to save their city. If they do the latter they will most certainly not recognize Aegon as their king.

[Lost Melnibonean]

57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There are two crucial marriages between the Tyrells and Redwynes - Olenna and Luthor, and Paxter and Mina. Even if the Redwynes had been fierce Blackfyre loyalists in the past - and we have no reason to believe that - family should be much more important than politics.

And while there are strong hints that Mathis Rowan is still a Targaryen loyalist Mace and Paxter both revealed that they don't care about the murder of the Targaryen children.

The point there is that it makes no sense to assume the Redwynes are secret Blackfyre loyalists/friends of the Golden Company or inclined to betray the Tyrells.

Sometime marriages solidify alliances (Stannis Baratheon-Sylese Florent), sometimes they don't (Jon Arryn-Lysa Tully). Often, we see that other considerations (ambition, love, avarice) outweigh family ties. 

I only suspect Redwyne and Hightower are in bed with Illyrio because of hints from the storyteller, not because of in-story politics. If my reading of those hints is wrong, then I would agree with you. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Still, we know that Willas and Garlan have raised an army and are building ships right now to retake the Shields. They would raised those men from the Reach and thus

That depends on whether Willas and Garlan are able to retake the Shield Islands, whether Euron turns up next in Oldtown or King's Landing, what Aegon does next, and what happens in King's Landing, as well as internal politics in the Reach.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Why should he? Did Robb lose control of the Northmen after Joffrey executed Ned? Did they suddenly declare for Joffrey?

That's a false analogy. Eddard was murdered with a score of guardsmen. Mace is fixing to have the cream of his army get crushed, with the likelihood of several hostages being taken by Aegon, even as his naval power gets diminished at sea. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, because the Redwynes will no longer exist as a house after Euron crushes Paxter and takes the Arbor, and the Hightowers will either have to use all their resources to defend Oldtown against Euron or they will bend the knee to him to save their city. If they do the latter they will most certainly not recognize Aegon as their king.

What if Aegon marches west to save the Reach like Stannis sailed north to save the North? 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 2/21/2017 at 3:30 PM, Coolbeard the Exile said:

R+L=J is a good theory but so is Eddard and Ashara being Jon's parents.

What is Ae, Ar and N?

The Targaryens have VERY distinguishing traits and i don't know of any character with targaryen blood who don't have any targaryen features. Maybe there is but by far the overwhelming amount have distinguishing traits thus it is a strike against the theory. It is not a complete conviction but it is defintaly 100% a strike against the theory. It dosn't mean the theory cant be true but it is a strike do you really disagree? Also twins would make it even more likely for Jon to have Targaryen features. It is a fantasy book series. If we didn't have any Jaime and Cersei chapters there would be no evidence for Joffrey being Lannister because "science". It is a book series it dosn't have time messing around with the science of hereditary features it is a fantasy where things are a little bit more simplified.

It would be completely shit. People have these theories where everyone have glasscandles and everyone glamours as someone else and everyone can skinchange but there really is no point in argueing about them because it is ridicolous and there is 0 evidence and implication.

There has been 0 implications that Jon and Aegon two dudes were born at the same time by the same mother at the tower of joy. Dosn't it leave a bad taste in your mouth and sound cringy to say that Aegon and Jon are twins? Story wise there are some things you can't do if you want your overall story to be good.

Im telling you there is no way in the seven hells that Jon and Aegon are twins. 

 

 

Ae stands for Aerys. Ar for Arthur. N is Ned.

Targaryens do not all look Valyrian. In fact it's been all but confirmed (some will say it has been confirmed) that firstborn children of a Targ + a non-Targ will take after the non-Targ parent. Baelor Breakspear took after his mother Mariah Martell. Duncan the Small took after his mother Betha Blackwood. Rhaenys Targaryen looked like her mother Elia Martell, and if Jon is is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son then he clearly got his mother's looks. So no, actually it's not remotely a strike against the theory. Twins would not make it more likely that Jon would have Targaryen features. That would only be the case if they were identical twins which given their looks is impossible. They'd have to be fraternal twins.

No evidence is one thing. Saying it would ruin the story is another. If you say it would ruin the story you have to have examples of how it would do so. Otherwise it's just another way of saying you don't like it, which is fine but not a valid literary criticism. It's so much easier to just say you wouldn't like it. 

I don't think Aegon and Jon are twins, but no it doesn't leave a bad taste in my mouth or feel cringy. Keep in mind though that I'm an odd duck.. I've been known to argue on the side of ideas I don't agree with if they are being unfairly bashed. Story-wise it's up to the author and he won't do anything that won't work or would make it bad. This actually reminds me of a while back when the catch-phrase for "things I don't like and don't want to happen" was to say that it would be "bad writing." 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Sometime marriages solidify alliances (Stannis Baratheon-Sylese Florent), sometimes they don't (Jon Arryn-Lysa Tully). Often, we see that other considerations (ambition, love, avarice) outweigh family ties.

Jon-Lysa are a special case - I completely understand why Lysa killed her husband and abandoned her father to his fate.

Can you give us any textual evidence that Paxter feels the same way about Mace as Lysa felt about Jon/Hoster?

There are a lot of hints that Mace and Paxter are actually very good buddies:

1. Paxter reaps rewards despite the fact that his fleet and troops stayed out of the War of the Five Kings because Cersei kept Horas and Hobber as hostages at court.

2. Paxter is named to the Small Council along with Mace himself and Mathis Rowan (in ASoS - only in effect while Tywin lived)

3. After Cersei's arrest Mace has Paxter named Master of Ships despite the fact that the man isn't there. He clearly trusts him, and Paxter has no reason whatsoever to not be grateful to his cousin Mace.

Oh, and Horas and Hobber are still in KL which means that Euron is not going to end the Redwyne line. But Desmera, Mina, and other Redwynes we don't know anything about might die.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I only suspect Redwyne and Hightower are in bed with Illyrio because of hints from the storyteller, not because of in-story politics. If my reading of those hints is wrong, then I would agree with you.

There are no such hints from the storyteller. Not everybody drinking Arborgold has actual connections to the Redwynes.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

That depends on whether Willas and Garlan are able to retake the Shield Islands, whether Euron turns up next in Oldtown or King's Landing, what Aegon does next, and what happens in King's Landing, as well as internal politics in the Reach.

The time line is pretty obvious there. Aeron 1 has Euron prepare for the battle against the Redwynes, but Aegon is only going to meet the Tyrell after at least four chapters (Arianne 1-3 and Jon Connington 1), suggesting that the Redwynes are going to be crushed long before Aegon could be powerful enough to do anything but react to the attacks of his enemies. We cannot even be sure when exactly the Dornishmen will join him (if they do).

And you know from 'The Forsaken'

Spoiler

that Euron has no intention to send aid to his men on the Shields

- which means that the Tyrells are going to retake them. That is inevitable. They have far too many men. The Ironborn could get away by ship, of course, but they cannot hold the islands and the castles.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

That's a false analogy. Eddard was murdered with a score of guardsmen. Mace is fixing to have the cream of his army get crushed, with the likelihood of several hostages being taken by Aegon, even as his naval power gets diminished at sea.

But nobody will blame Garlan or Willas for any of that, nor is it likely that those men of the Reach who lose kin when 'the cream of Mace's army' gets crushed are suddenly going to be Aegon fans. Keep in mind that it was Loras Tyrell who prevented many of the great lords of the Reach to side with Stannis after Renly's death. Do you think now other Reach men will join a pretender who might very well kill their fathers, brothers, and sons in battle? For what reason exactly?

And if Mace dies why cannot Willas lead the way in leading the Reach to Aegon?

But even if that happened - the thing is that Aegon simply does not need the Reach to win his throne. It is enough if nobody in the Reach right now is going to marshal an army against him. The Ironborn keep them occupied and the Lannisters are far away, so the Golden Company, some Stormlords, the Dornishmen and perhaps some friends of the Golden Company (Merryweathers, Peakes with a token force) actually should be enough to take KL. Whether he is going to hold it against Euron is a completely separate question. But the Reach certainly is not going to oppose him in any way if he ends the line of the usurper in the process.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

What if Aegon marches west to save the Reach like Stannis sailed north to save the North? 

Aegon cannot hope to save the Reach. If he tried that, he would fail. He has no ships, and Euron is not going to be stupid enough to engage him in a battle on land. Aegon couldn't even protect Oldtown from Euron unless he permanently stationed men there - which he certainly could do by sending the Dornish army in the Prince's Pass to Oldtown or the Reach in general to help them against the Ironborn. That certainly would be welcomed there, and help Aegon in the propaganda game but he cannot win any real victories in the Reach and would actually be well-advised to stay out of this conflict while he has no fleet. And once he has taken KL he should secure his power in the Crownlands and the surrounding regions, especially the Riverlands, not immediately leave the city to march to another war at the far end of the Realm. That way the Lannisters could easily enough raise a sizable new host and march east to steal the Iron Throne from him. That would make him look like a fool. 

Not to mention that the time line suggests that Euron would be able to attack/sack Oldtown (if that was his goal) weeks or even months before Aegon could hope to arrive there. And even if he did - the Ironborn would most likely attack Oldtown from the sea while Aegon would arrive at the city overland. Oldtown itself would become the battlefield between the two sides, which means he wouldn't save but essentially help destroy Oldtown.

[Violet]

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Ae stands for Aerys. Ar for Arthur. N is Ned.

Targaryens do not all look Valyrian. In fact it's been all but confirmed (some will say it has been confirmed) that firstborn children of a Targ + a non-Targ will take after the non-Targ parent. Baelor Breakspear took after his mother Mariah Martell. Duncan the Small took after his mother Betha Blackwood. Rhaenys Targaryen looked like her mother Elia Martell, and if Jon is is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son then he clearly got his mother's looks. So no, actually it's not remotely a strike against the theory. Twins would not make it more likely that Jon would have Targaryen features. That would only be the case if they were identical twins which given their looks is impossible. They'd have to be fraternal twins.

 

  I'd like to add Rhaenyra Targaryen's sons, Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey Velaryon too. They are said to be look like their grandma, Aemma Arryn. But it's speculated, their actual father is Ser Harwing Strong.

 

About fAegon he doesn't annoy me very much, but afraid that remaining two books won't be able to cover all plot points and we will have a rushed ending.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

2 minutes ago, Violet said:

  I'd like to add Rhaenyra Targaryen's sons, Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey Velaryon too. They are said to be look like their grandma, Aemma Arryn. But it's speculated, their actual father is Ser Harwing Strong.

 

About fAegon he doesn't annoy me very much, but afraid that remaining two books won't be able to cover all plot points and we will have a rushed ending.

And Aemma herself was the only child of a Targaryen and an Arryn. So if she didn't have the Targaryen looks, that's another one. Also as an only child she was the firstborn. That theory just keeps getting more solid.

[Violet]

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

And Aemma herself was the only child of a Targaryen and an Arryn. So if she didn't have the Targaryen looks, that's another one. Also as an only child she was the firstborn. That theory just keeps getting more solid.

There is indeed a pattern about firstborns not having Targaryen looks, I believe rumor about Ser Harwin Strong was a propaganda made by Greens. And how could we forget about founder of  House Baratheon,  Orys Baratheon, famous for black hair and eyes, he is the first Targeryen Bastard after all.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

13 minutes ago, Violet said:

There is indeed a pattern about firstborns not having Targaryen looks, I believe rumor about Ser Harwin Strong was a propaganda made by Greens. And how could we forget about founder of  House Baratheon,  Orys Baratheon, famous for black hair and eyes, he is the first Targeryen Bastard after all.

Alleged Targaryen bastard. We'll probably never know for sure about him. But it's funny that his descendants tend to have the Durrandon look (black hair, blue eyes).

[Therae]

Aegon/fAegon does kind of annoy me, too. For all the work VarIllyrio (I don't remember who came up with that, but thank you!) put into training him to be a good king, it seems they did not manage to excise the entitlement that comes with knowing (or "knowing") you are the rightful heir.

He could have reacted a lot of different ways to losing that cyvasse game (also he could have decided that his opponent was maybe not the best person to provide strategic advice and perhaps not lost at all, or at least not because he fell for it) that would have been more encouraging, but instead he had a little tantrum, which was, as mentioned a few times upthread, altogether too reminiscent of Joffrey. That scene also makes me imagine that there may come another occasion when he is (soundly) advised not to use his (real) dragon, and he will insist on it, with disastrous results.

That said, I think this storyline is likely to have a lot of impact on the rest of aSoIaF, whether he ends up Dany's ally, enemy, or both. I am more inclined to wonder if we couldn't have lived without the adventures of Quentyn & Co.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon-Lysa are a special case - I completely understand why Lysa killed her husband and abandoned her father to his fate.

Can you give us any textual evidence that Paxter feels the same way about Mace as Lysa felt about Jon/Hoster?

What's this? A demand for textual evidence from @Lord Why Bother to Quote the Text when My Head Canon and Opinion Is All You Need to Know? 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There are a lot of hints that Mace and Paxter are actually very good buddies:

1. Paxter reaps rewards despite the fact that his fleet and troops stayed out of the War of the Five Kings because Cersei kept Horas and Hobber as hostages at court.

Here's a quote for you...

Quote

Highgarden reaped the richest harvest. ...

Lesser tracts were granted to Lord Rowan, and set aside for Lord Tarly, Lady Oakheart, Lord Hightower, and other worthies not present. Lord Redwyne asked only for thirty years' remission of the taxes that Littlefinger and his wine factors had levied on certain of the Arbor's finest vintages.

So, Tyrell reaped the bounty and doled out lesser rewards to Redwyne and others. Redwyne got a tax break. That's a nice reward, but your head canon might be a bit off. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There are no such hints from the storyteller. Not everybody drinking Arborgold has actual connections to the Redwynes.

Ooh, your head canon is a bit off again here...

Quote

Tyrion left the fat women to their loaves and kettles and went in search of the cellar where Illyrio had decanted him the night before. It was not hard to find. There was enough wine there to keep him drunk for a hundred years; sweet reds from the Reach and sour reds from Dorne, pale Pentoshi ambers, the green nectar of Myr, three score casks of Arbor gold, even wines from the fabled east, from Qarth and Yi Ti and Asshai by the Shadow. In the end, Tyrion chose a cask of strongwine marked as the private stock of Lord Runceford Redwyne, the grandfather of the present Lord of the Arbor. The taste of it was languorous and heady on the tongue, the color a purple so dark that it looked almost black in the dim-lit cellar. Tyrion filled a cup, and a flagon for good measure, and carried them up to the gardens to drink beneath those cherry trees he'd seen.

I agree, "Not everybody drinking Arborgold has actual connections to the Redwynes," as you say, but I suspect those with a cask of strongwine marked as the private stock of Lord Runceford Redwyne, the grandfather of the present Lord of the Arbor just might. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The time line is pretty obvious there. Aeron 1 has Euron prepare for the battle against the Redwynes, but Aegon is only going to meet the Tyrell after at least four chapters (Arianne 1-3 and Jon Connington 1), suggesting that the Redwynes are going to be crushed long before Aegon could be powerful enough to do anything but react to the attacks of his enemies. We cannot even be sure when exactly the Dornishmen will join him (if they do).

I would submit that the timeline is far from certain at this point. I would like to see how things shake out in the early chapters of Winds. As you know, the author's chapters are often not written chronologically, and we can expect that some of the early Winds chapters actually occur before some of the later Dance chapters. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And you know from 'The Forsaken'

  Hide contents

that Euron has no intention to send aid to his men on the Shields

- which means that the Tyrells are going to retake them. That is inevitable. They have far too many men. The Ironborn could get away by ship, of course, but they cannot hold the islands and the castles.

But nobody will blame Garlan or Willas for any of that, nor is it likely that those men of the Reach who lose kin when 'the cream of Mace's army' gets crushed are suddenly going to be Aegon fans. Keep in mind that it was Loras Tyrell who prevented many of the great lords of the Reach to side with Stannis after Renly's death. Do you think now other Reach men will join a pretender who might very well kill their fathers, brothers, and sons in battle? For what reason exactly?

And if Mace dies why cannot Willas lead the way in leading the Reach to Aegon?

You fail to grasp the point. If Mace and his host are defeated by Aegon, there will be a power vacuum in the Reach. As the storyteller and Laswell Peake suggest, the power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell and you imagine it to be. At least some of the men of the Golden Company believe they have friends in the reach. If even a few back them, we could see civil war between a Tyrell faction led by a cripple from a line of up jumped stewards and a faction of those who prefer to back a dragonlord. To win those potential friends, Aegon would have to make their cause his own, much like Stannis is doing. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But even if that happened - the thing is that Aegon simply does not need the Reach to win his throne. It is enough if nobody in the Reach right now is going to marshal an army against him. The Ironborn keep them occupied and the Lannisters are far away, so the Golden Company, some Stormlords, the Dornishmen and perhaps some friends of the Golden Company (Merryweathers, Peakes with a token force) actually should be enough to take KL. Whether he is going to hold it against Euron is a completely separate question. But the Reach certainly is not going to oppose him in any way if he ends the line of the usurper in the process.

Aegon cannot hope to save the Reach. If he tried that, he would fail. He has no ships, and Euron is not going to be stupid enough to engage him in a battle on land. Aegon couldn't even protect Oldtown from Euron unless he permanently stationed men there - which he certainly could do by sending the Dornish army in the Prince's Pass to Oldtown or the Reach in general to help them against the Ironborn. That certainly would be welcomed there, and help Aegon in the propaganda game but he cannot win any real victories in the Reach and would actually be well-advised to stay out of this conflict while he has no fleet. And once he has taken KL he should secure his power in the Crownlands and the surrounding regions, especially the Riverlands, not immediately leave the city to march to another war at the far end of the Realm. That way the Lannisters could easily enough raise a sizable new host and march east to steal the Iron Throne from him. That would make him look like a fool. 

Not to mention that the time line suggests that Euron would be able to attack/sack Oldtown (if that was his goal) weeks or even months before Aegon could hope to arrive there. And even if he did - the Ironborn would most likely attack Oldtown from the sea while Aegon would arrive at the city overland. Oldtown itself would become the battlefield between the two sides, which means he wouldn't save but essentially help destroy Oldtown.

Wait, you are saying that the lords of the Reach would welcome Dornish soldiers in Oldtown?

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

So, Tyrell reaped the bounty and doled out lesser rewards to Redwyne and others. Redwyne got a tax break. That's a nice reward, but your head canon might be a bit off.

You conveniently forgot to quote the rest there:

Quote

Lord Redwyne asked only for thirty years’ remission of the taxes that Littlefinger and his wine factors had levied on certain of the Arbor’s finest vintages. When that was granted, he pronounced himself well satisfied and suggested that they send for a cask of Arbor gold, to toast good King Joffrey and his wise and benevolent Hand.

I see no reason to believe the man should blatantly lie there. Do you? If so, can you point out any such reason?

Paxter played only a little role in the entire war, only committing himself to it after the Margaery deal was made. He did not commit himself to Renly because Cersei had his sons. That means there is no good reason why Mace or anyone should want to reward with a tax break or a seat on the Small Council but he got both.

You have no reason to believe the man is not honestly grateful to his liege lord, cousin, and brother-in-law.

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Ooh, your head canon is a bit off again here...

I agree, "Not everybody drinking Arborgold has actual connections to the Redwynes," as you say, but I suspect those with a cask of strongwine marked as the private stock of Lord Runceford Redwyne, the grandfather of the present Lord of the Arbor just might. 

LOL. I see you marking the words 'strongwine' and 'purple' as if they are supposed to have any significance. Not everybody who drinks wine of any sort has necessarily any connections to the men he purchased that wine from.

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I would submit that the timeline is far from certain at this point. I would like to see how things shake out in the early chapters of Winds. As you know, the author's chapters are often not written chronologically, and we can expect that some of the early Winds chapters actually occur before some of the later Dance chapters.

That is true, but George actually changed the entire time line by moving the Arianne and Aeron chapters to TWoW and killing Kevan before Arianne arrives at Storm's End.

We can be reasonably sure that the battle against the Redwyne fleet will take place early on in TWoW as will all the other events in the Crownlands and Stormlands because either of those events would be quickly known throughout the Realm.

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

You fail to grasp the point. If Mace and his host are defeated by Aegon, there will be a power vacuum in the Reach.

No, there won't, because Mace is not in the Reach. Willas and Garlan command the armies of the Reach in the Reach, essentially acting in their father's stead. Mace's defeat will have little to no effect whatsoever. Why should it? Do you think Tywin's defeat or death at the Green Fork would have led to a 'power vacuum' in the West, never mind the fact that Jaime Lannister was commanding another Lannister army? Did Stafford's defeat lead to a 'power vacuum' in the West? No.

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As the storyteller and Laswell Peake suggest, the power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell and you imagine it to be. At least some of the men of the Golden Company believe they have friends in the reach.

Friends they have yet to contact as far as we know. Friends who might right now occupied to defend their lands against the Ironborn about whose attacks on the Reach Laswell Peake knew literally nothing when he made that claim. In fact, it might turn out that there are no such friends in the Reach and George squeezed that false belief in there to make it more plausible that the Golden Company would go to Westeros without Dany and the dragons.

But let's assume there are some lords in the Reach - not the Hightowers or Redwynes because they cannot do anything anyway - who are friends with some members of the Golden Company. Now, their lands are still threatened by the Ironborn and those men had no idea that the Golden Company would be coming so soon (not to mention that we have no reason to believe that these men were actually in contact with the Golden Company - Strickland tells us he told his officers only about the plans they had when he gave the command to march to Volantis, not before) so they would have a vital interest to send as many men as they could spare with Willas and Garlan to retake the Shields.

How on earth would they then have enough men to send Aegon any help? How could they have men to turn against the Tyrells, if they wanted to do that? Who on earth would support a rebellion against Highgarden in the middle of a war against the Ironborn on the very soil of the Reach?

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If even a few back them, we could see civil war between a Tyrell faction led by a cripple from a line of up jumped stewards and a faction of those who prefer to back a dragonlord.

The Tyrells no longer are up-jumped stewards. They are heavily intermarried with the Redwynes and the Hightowers. They are the acknowledged leaders of the Reach, and aside from the Florents (who are basically done) nobody is challenging their claim to Highgarden as far as we know.

And perhaps Willas himself would prefer to back a Targaryen pretender? You don't know what he would like to do should he be Lord of Highgarden. If his father is defeated, dies, or ends up in captivity it will fall to him to decide the politics of Highgarden, and in light of the fact how unpopular the Lannisters have become in the wake of Cersei's refusal to send help at once after Euron's attacks or in the wake of the treatment of Margaery, her cousins, and the Redwyne twins it would be hardly surprising if Willas decided to break with the lions for good and actually support Aegon while Tommen/Myrcella are still alive. He could do that.

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

To win those potential friends, Aegon would have to make their cause his own, much like Stannis is doing.

So you think Aegon can afford to enter into a civil war in the Reach begun by 'friends of the Golden Company' who declared for Aegon before they ever spoke or interacted with him. The man has his own campaign.

If there are such friends in the Reach one would expect them to marshal whatever troops they have and march to Storm's End to join their king at his present seat, not demand or expect that he come to them. That would be presumptuous in the extreme: 'Hey, Your Grace, we are your friends. Come to our help or we are doomed. Never mind your own plans of conquest.'

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Wait, you are saying that the lords of the Reach would welcome Dornish soldiers in Oldtown?

If Aegon comes to help the men in the Reach the bulk of his men would be Dornishmen in any scenario. The Golden Company will have losses during their fight with the Tyrell army at Storm's End. My guess is that if he wants to actually wants to help the Reach against the Ironborn he would be best advised to send letters to the Marcher Lords and other major Reach lords and inform them about his intentions and then ask Arianne whether she can send the Dornish army in the Prince's Pass to Oldtown or the Shields to help the Hightowers and/or Willas and Garlan to deal with the Ironborn.

If Aegon fails to make peace between Dorne and the Reach is campaign is doomed from the start. He is very likely to have Dorne, but if the Reach - be it those friends of the Golden Company or other Reach lords - cannot overcome their hatred for the Dornish he would never get much support from there.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

15 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Ae stands for Aerys. Ar for Arthur. N is Ned.

Targaryens do not all look Valyrian. In fact it's been all but confirmed (some will say it has been confirmed) that firstborn children of a Targ + a non-Targ will take after the non-Targ parent. Baelor Breakspear took after his mother Mariah Martell. Duncan the Small took after his mother Betha Blackwood. Rhaenys Targaryen looked like her mother Elia Martell, and if Jon is is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son then he clearly got his mother's looks. So no, actually it's not remotely a strike against the theory. Twins would not make it more likely that Jon would have Targaryen features. That would only be the case if they were identical twins which given their looks is impossible. They'd have to be fraternal twins.

No evidence is one thing. Saying it would ruin the story is another. If you say it would ruin the story you have to have examples of how it would do so. Otherwise it's just another way of saying you don't like it, which is fine but not a valid literary criticism. It's so much easier to just say you wouldn't like it. 

I don't think Aegon and Jon are twins, but no it doesn't leave a bad taste in my mouth or feel cringy. Keep in mind though that I'm an odd duck.. I've been known to argue on the side of ideas I don't agree with if they are being unfairly bashed. Story-wise it's up to the author and he won't do anything that won't work or would make it bad. This actually reminds me of a while back when the catch-phrase for "things I don't like and don't want to happen" was to say that it would be "bad writing." 

There have been like 70 known Targaryens and only three of them from what i can find are without Targaryen features.

I don't know how to express in words why it would be bad for the story.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You conveniently forgot to quote the rest there:

I see no reason to believe the man should blatantly lie there. Do you? If so, can you point out any such reason?

Paxter played only a little role in the entire war, only committing himself to it after the Margaery deal was made. He did not commit himself to Renly because Cersei had his sons. That means there is no good reason why Mace or anyone should want to reward with a tax break or a seat on the Small Council but he got both.

You have no reason to believe the man is not honestly grateful to his liege lord, cousin, and brother-in-law.

LOL. I see you marking the words 'strongwine' and 'purple' as if they are supposed to have any significance. Not everybody who drinks wine of any sort has necessarily any connections to the men he purchased that wine from.

That is true, but George actually changed the entire time line by moving the Arianne and Aeron chapters to TWoW and killing Kevan before Arianne arrives at Storm's End.

We can be reasonably sure that the battle against the Redwyne fleet will take place early on in TWoW as will all the other events in the Crownlands and Stormlands because either of those events would be quickly known throughout the Realm.

No, there won't, because Mace is not in the Reach. Willas and Garlan command the armies of the Reach in the Reach, essentially acting in their father's stead. Mace's defeat will have little to no effect whatsoever. Why should it? Do you think Tywin's defeat or death at the Green Fork would have led to a 'power vacuum' in the West, never mind the fact that Jaime Lannister was commanding another Lannister army? Did Stafford's defeat lead to a 'power vacuum' in the West? No.

Friends they have yet to contact as far as we know. Friends who might right now occupied to defend their lands against the Ironborn about whose attacks on the Reach Laswell Peake knew literally nothing when he made that claim. In fact, it might turn out that there are no such friends in the Reach and George squeezed that false belief in there to make it more plausible that the Golden Company would go to Westeros without Dany and the dragons.

But let's assume there are some lords in the Reach - not the Hightowers or Redwynes because they cannot do anything anyway - who are friends with some members of the Golden Company. Now, their lands are still threatened by the Ironborn and those men had no idea that the Golden Company would be coming so soon (not to mention that we have no reason to believe that these men were actually in contact with the Golden Company - Strickland tells us he told his officers only about the plans they had when he gave the command to march to Volantis, not before) so they would have a vital interest to send as many men as they could spare with Willas and Garlan to retake the Shields.

How on earth would they then have enough men to send Aegon any help? How could they have men to turn against the Tyrells, if they wanted to do that? Who on earth would support a rebellion against Highgarden in the middle of a war against the Ironborn on the very soil of the Reach?

The Tyrells no longer are up-jumped stewards. They are heavily intermarried with the Redwynes and the Hightowers. They are the acknowledged leaders of the Reach, and aside from the Florents (who are basically done) nobody is challenging their claim to Highgarden as far as we know.

And perhaps Willas himself would prefer to back a Targaryen pretender? You don't know what he would like to do should he be Lord of Highgarden. If his father is defeated, dies, or ends up in captivity it will fall to him to decide the politics of Highgarden, and in light of the fact how unpopular the Lannisters have become in the wake of Cersei's refusal to send help at once after Euron's attacks or in the wake of the treatment of Margaery, her cousins, and the Redwyne twins it would be hardly surprising if Willas decided to break with the lions for good and actually support Aegon while Tommen/Myrcella are still alive. He could do that.

So you think Aegon can afford to enter into a civil war in the Reach begun by 'friends of the Golden Company' who declared for Aegon before they ever spoke or interacted with him. The man has his own campaign.

If there are such friends in the Reach one would expect them to marshal whatever troops they have and march to Storm's End to join their king at his present seat, not demand or expect that he come to them. That would be presumptuous in the extreme: 'Hey, Your Grace, we are your friends. Come to our help or we are doomed. Never mind your own plans of conquest.'

If Aegon comes to help the men in the Reach the bulk of his men would be Dornishmen in any scenario. The Golden Company will have losses during their fight with the Tyrell army at Storm's End. My guess is that if he wants to actually wants to help the Reach against the Ironborn he would be best advised to send letters to the Marcher Lords and other major Reach lords and inform them about his intentions and then ask Arianne whether she can send the Dornish army in the Prince's Pass to Oldtown or the Shields to help the Hightowers and/or Willas and Garlan to deal with the Ironborn.

If Aegon fails to make peace between Dorne and the Reach is campaign is doomed from the start. He is very likely to have Dorne, but if the Reach - be it those friends of the Golden Company or other Reach lords - cannot overcome their hatred for the Dornish he would never get much support from there.

You said Paxter reaped rewards. The text says he got tax break while Highgarden reaped the richest harvest and Tyrell's bannermen  were granted lesser tracts. You're gonna have to move the goal post a bit further.

Paxter got what he got because he is one of the most powerful and prestigious lords in the Reach. His fleet would be absolutely necessary to defeat Stannis, who still held Storm's End and Dragonstone. So, he got a spot on the council and a tax break.

Paxter's aunt and most of the readers think Mace is an oaf, so why shouldn't we think Paxter might think Mace is at least a bit of an oaf too?

LOL, I see you ignoring the words "private stock of Lord Runceford Redwyne, the grandfather of the present Lord of the Arbor" as if they have no significance. Strongwine and purple are different that Arbor gold. See you said Arbor gold and and the text said strongwine and purple. Just keep moving the goal posts, bud. 

Did the storyteller change the entire timeline when he moved the Theon spoiler chapter from Dance to Winds?

Oh, come on now... You are telling me that Tywin's death at the Green Fork would not have created a power vacuum? 

You say the Tyrells are no longer upjumped stewards, and that is true since they have been the lords of Highgarden for about 300 years. Of course, being a lord for hundreds of years doesn’t always count among one’s peers in ASOIAF. One of the most arrogant characters in the story tells us, “The Tyrells were only stewards that the dragonkings had upjumped far above their station,” and even Mace’s own mum, a Redwyne, mind you, admits, “If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining.” But please go ahead and explain in sixteen paragraphs how your opinion carries more weight than another reader’s interpretation of the text.

I agree that Willas, or Garlan or Margaery, might end up backing Aegon, but only if certain events unfold in King’s Landing in a particular order. That’s why I included what happens in the capital as an important variable, along with several other factors.

[Violet]

2 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

There have been like 70 known Targaryens and only three of them from what i can find are without Targaryen features.

I don't know how to express in words why it would be bad for the story.

 

70 known others doesn't have non-Targaryen parents, since they are all product of incest they all look like each other. Targaryens started to marry outside of their house more commonly after extinction of dragons, since they lost their major power source.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

You said Paxter reaped rewards. The text says he got tax break while Highgarden reaped the richest harvest and Tyrell's bannermen  were granted lesser tracts. You're gonna have to move the goal post a bit further.

I knew that Paxter got that tax break before I quoted that. And I also knew that he was happy with that. I see no reason to believe he was pissed about any of that.

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Paxter got what he got because he is one of the most powerful and prestigious lords in the Reach. His fleet would be absolutely necessary to defeat Stannis, who still held Storm's End and Dragonstone. So, he got a spot on the council and a tax break.

Why should they reward him for something he still has to do?

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Paxter's aunt and most of the readers think Mace is an oaf, so why shouldn't we think Paxter might think Mace is at least a bit of an oaf too?

Because it is fun to be the best buddy of an oaf you can lead around the nose? But there is actually no hint that Paxter is very bright or ambitious himself. Just reread the suggestions he makes during the council session. Giving up the North. Making an alliance with the Ironborn.

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

LOL, I see you ignoring the words "private stock of Lord Runceford Redwyne, the grandfather of the present Lord of the Arbor" as if they have no significance. Strongwine and purple are different that Arbor gold. See you said Arbor gold and and the text said strongwine and purple. Just keep moving the goal posts, bud. 

I really don't care what kind of wine the characters drink. I see no reason to base theories on that kind of thing.

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Did the storyteller change the entire timeline when he moved the Theon spoiler chapter from Dance to Winds?

Perhaps. How should I know?

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Oh, come on now... You are telling me that Tywin's death at the Green Fork would not have created a power vacuum?

We are talking defeat or death. And, no, I don't think it would have been relevant. Jaime and Kevan would have taken over for him, and if not they then Tyrion or some of the cousins. Just as there is a literal army of Tyrell uncles and cousins standing in line to take over for Mace or his sons.

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

You say the Tyrells are no longer upjumped stewards, and that is true since they have been the lords of Highgarden for about 300 years. Of course, being a lord for hundreds of years doesn’t always count among one’s peers in ASOIAF. One of the most arrogant characters in the story tells us, “The Tyrells were only stewards that the dragonkings had upjumped far above their station,” and even Mace’s own mum, a Redwyne, mind you, admits, “If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining.” But please go ahead and explain in sixteen paragraphs how your opinion carries more weight than another reader’s interpretation of the text.

The Florents whine, nobody else has done that as of yet. And who is saying that the Tyrell claims to Highgarden have not been strengthened throughout the last three centuries by the Tyrells marrying into the other families who have stronger blood ties to the Gardeners? Right now the Gardeners are long gone, and anybody claiming that Highgarden should be his because some of his distant ancestors were closely related to a royal dynasty that burned on the Field of Fire.

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I agree that Willas, or Garlan or Margaery, might end up backing Aegon, but only if certain events unfold in King’s Landing in a particular order. That’s why I included what happens in the capital as an important variable, along with several other factors.

We can be reasonably sure that things are going to fall apart in KL pretty soon. There is a narrative reason why Varys killed Pycelle and Kevan in the Epilogue.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

3 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

There have been like 70 known Targaryens and only three of them from what i can find are without Targaryen features.

I don't know how to express in words why it would be bad for the story.

 

Aemma Arryn. The three Velaryon boys. Baelor Breakspear and his son Valarr. Duncan the Small. Princess Rhaenys. That's eight. All of whom had a non-Valyrian parent in the mix. If we had descriptions for Elaena's Penrose kids and a few others, the numbers would go up.

1 hour ago, Violet said:

70 known others doesn't have non-Targaryen parents, since they are all product of incest they all look like each other. Targaryens started to marry outside of their house more commonly after extinction of dragons, since they lost their major power source.

Not quite. But the non-Targ parents who produced firstborns with Valyrian looks were of Valyrian descent themselves, namely the Velaryons and Larra Rogare. Valyrian + Valyrian is of course going to produce the Valyrian looks. But Valyrian + non-Valyrian doesn't always produce Valyrian looks. In particular it's been noted that firstborns of a Targ + non-Targ take after the non-Targ parent. So if Rhaegar had a child with Lyanna, there's a 99% likelihood that the child would look like Lyanna.

It's simple. V stands for Valyrian. nV stands for non-Valyrian.

V+V = V

V+nV = firstborn nV
 

[Coolbeard the Exile]

54 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Aemma Arryn. The three Velaryon boys. Baelor Breakspear and his son Valarr. Duncan the Small. Princess Rhaenys. That's eight. All of whom had a non-Valyrian parent in the mix. If we had descriptions for Elaena's Penrose kids and a few others, the numbers would go up.

Not quite. But the non-Targ parents who produced firstborns with Valyrian looks were of Valyrian descent themselves, namely the Velaryons and Larra Rogare. Valyrian + Valyrian is of course going to produce the Valyrian looks. But Valyrian + non-Valyrian doesn't always produce Valyrian looks. In particular it's been noted that firstborns of a Targ + non-Targ take after the non-Targ parent. So if Rhaegar had a child with Lyanna, there's a 99% likelihood that the child would look like Lyanna.

It's simple. V stands for Valyrian. nV stands for non-Valyrian.

V+V = V

V+nV = firstborn nV
 

We don't know about aemma arryn as far as i know. 

Valarr has a streak of silver in her hair so she is clearly of valyrian blood dosnt count. 

Don't think we know about duncan the small.

We don't know 100% what colour her eyes were.

 

I will give you the velaryon boys and Baelor

[Lord Varys]

We indeed have no idea how Aemma Arryn looked like. Considering that Rhaenyra had very distinguished Valyrian features she could have had them, too. Or not. Difficult to say.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

1 hour ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

We don't know about aemma arryn as far as i know. 

Valarr has a streak of silver in her hair so she is clearly of valyrian blood dosnt count. 

Don't think we know about duncan the small.

We don't know 100% what colour her eyes were.

 

I will give you the velaryon boys and Baelor

Valarr was male, and we know he has Valyrian blood from his father Baelor, but he does not have the overall Valyrian look. There's a huge difference between someone who looks like Aegon the Conqueror and a guy with brown hair and dark eyes. Valarr's mother was a Dondarrion, so yes, he does count. It's a classic case of the V+nV firstborn taking after the nV parent. A streak of silver itself does not change the overall look of the person. 

We do know about Duncan the Small. Here's the picture included in TWOIAF. All of the artwork in the book was approved by GRRM.

Don't know 100% what color whose eyes were?

Exact eye color doesn't make any difference in whether Jon could be half-Targaryen or not. Daemon Blackfyre, Aegon V, and Aegon III were all said to have deep or dark purple eyes, and deep/dark purple eyes can appear to be dark gray or even black, especially if the person with the dark purple eyes is not wearing purple or any other color that would bring out the purple in their eyes. I'm living proof of clothing affecting the appearance of eye color...my dark blue eyes look different colors depending on what I'm wearing, and when I wear purple I could pass for a dark-haired Targaryen.

 

@Violet what's the source of the info that says the Velaryon boys (Rhaenyra's sons) took after their grandmother Aemma in looks? 

[The Fresh PtwP]

What about Aegon II?

V(Viserys I) + nV(Hightower) but looks Targ.