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What was Varys doing when KL fell?


Lady bonehead

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This was inspired by the previous fAegon thread.  I don't really think Aegon is genuine, but Varys's story helps to fill in one important plot hole:  what the heck was he doing during the fall of King's Landing?  

As the spymaster, he must have been aware of both the potential threat to Aegon and Rhaenys and the wildfire plan.  He may or may not have addressed the first threat, but he seems to have done nothing about the second.  Jaime and Pycelle were the only other men in a position to influence the situation and they both did something.

Frankly, I don't believe Varys actually cares about "the children".  This is a man who buys children in bulk and uses them as disposable pawns.

Moreover, despite what others have said I don't think it was a done deal that Tywin would kill the kids.  Not that he's a nice guy, but he had another option: move in and declare Aegon king with himself as Regent, thereby outmaneuvering Ned and Robert.  I believe this is what Jaime expected him to do.

But the real question is why Varys did nothing about the wildfire.  Was he planning to escape himself at the last minute and let the city blow up?  Did he have a plan to stop the pyromancers?  Or was he confident that Jaime would take care of the problem?

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1 hour ago, Lady bonehead said:

This was inspired by the previous fAegon thread.  I don't really think Aegon is genuine, but Varys's story helps to fill in one important plot hole:  what the heck was he doing during the fall of King's Landing?  

It doesn't matter if he is genuine or not. Power resides where men think it does 

1 hour ago, Lady bonehead said:

As the spymaster, he must have been aware of both the potential threat to Aegon and Rhaenys and the wildfire plan.  He may or may not have addressed the first threat, but he seems to have done nothing about the second.  Jaime and Pycelle were the only other men in a position to influence the situation and they both did something.

He was. He told the king to keep the gates barred. And one person or his group of kids didn't know how to handle wildfire and they couldn't get rid of all of it 

1 hour ago, Lady bonehead said:

Frankly, I don't believe Varys actually cares about "the children".  This is a man who buys children in bulk and uses them as disposable pawns.

They aren't disposable. They are very important and when they are older they retire as servants to Illyrio's manse 

1 hour ago, Lady bonehead said:

Moreover, despite what others have said I don't think it was a done deal that Tywin would kill the kids.  Not that he's a nice guy, but he had another option: move in and declare Aegon king with himself as Regent, thereby outmaneuvering Ned and Robert.  I believe this is what Jaime expected him to do.

It was a done deal. Tywin has shown he will violate rules of gods and men to achieve his goals (red wedding.)  There was no way he would declare a baby king after sacking the city and having his son kill the king with one of the greatest warriors in living memory marching to claim the throne 

1 hour ago, Lady bonehead said:

But the real question is why Varys did nothing about the wildfire.  Was he planning to escape himself at the last minute and let the city blow up?  Did he have a plan to stop the pyromancers?  Or was he confident that Jaime would take care of the problem?

He had no plan. He didn't know how to handle it, and there was too much to keep track of (pyromancers discover more caches a decade and a half after the sack) by any one person. The wildfire plot was probably one of the major reasons he wanted Aerys to keep the gates closed 

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Varys's real power was his influence on Aerys. Perhaps he believed he could still control him. One has to remember that Tywin shows up unexpectedly after he hears the news of the Trident, and Pycelle wins Aerys to the belief that the Lannisters are there to save him, thereby convincing the king to open the gates. If Varys had his way, the gates would have stayed closed and he would have had thousands of men to defend the walls, with the Royal Navy in control of the sea and river. Until Aerys gives the command to open the gates this war is still not over. The danger of the pyromancer plot becomes critical when the gates are opened as well. Before that, what could Varys do to stop the king? Only whisper in his ear. He has no troops of his own.

Short answer to what Varys was doing as King's Landing was being sacked? Hiding.

3 hours ago, Lady bonehead said:

Moreover, despite what others have said I don't think it was a done deal that Tywin would kill the kids.  Not that he's a nice guy, but he had another option: move in and declare Aegon king with himself as Regent, thereby outmaneuvering Ned and Robert.  I believe this is what Jaime expected him to do.

I have to disagree. Aegon is the Martell's piece in this game, not Tywin's. Tywin has no interest in putting a child of Dorne on the throne. If Viserys was still in King's Landing then that would be an option for Tywin. Aegon is not.

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Tywin did what he did to get on Robert's good side, after staying out of the rebellion until it was basically a done deal. If he'd meant to crown Aegon king he would have been in King's Landing long before the Trident. But he didn't have to order Rhaenys' death as the realm wasn't likely to support a female claim to the throne. She would have made a great hostage, along with her mother. The best reason for having Rhaenys killed was to make sure Cersei was Robert's best option for a bride. 

Is there any text that tells us Varys knew about the wildfire plot? Jaime made a point of killing everyone he thought knew about it and Varys is very much not dead.

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2 hours ago, Lady bonehead said:

It's interesting that he risked execution by staying and surrendering rather than escaping via his secret escape route (with or without Aegon)

If he really did get Aegon out, the best way to keep that covered would be to stay. If Gregor hadn't done such a number on his youngest victim, Varys would have had some quick-talking to do. I imagine it would have gone something like "Oh dear! This isn't Aegon! Pycelle, what have you done!"

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22 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

If he really did get Aegon out, the best way to keep that covered would be to stay. If Gregor hadn't done such a number on his youngest victim, Varys would have had some quick-talking to do. I imagine it would have gone something like "Oh dear! This isn't Aegon! Pycelle, what have you done!"

Didn't think of that, but it puts another hole in the Aegon story.

I don't have a quote showing Varys knew about the wildfire, but it's his job to know stuff

In response to DM's son, it's my understanding that Tywin made the decision to kill the kids before he sacked the city and before Jaime killed Aerys.  Otherwise, being Tywin, he could have blamed Jaime for the whole thing ("Son, I didn't want to do it but you forced my hand").

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1 minute ago, Lady bonehead said:

Didn't think of that, but it puts another hole in the Aegon story.

I don't have a quote showing Varys knew about the wildfire, but it's his job to know stuff

In response to DM's son, it's my understanding that Tywin made the decision to kill the kids before he sacked the city and before Jaime killed Aerys.  Otherwise, being Tywin, he could have blamed Jaime for the whole thing ("Son, I didn't want to do it but you forced my hand").

It doesn't put a hole in the Aegon story at all. Get the kid out, stay to make sure nobody questions it until he should be far enough away to be safe. Gregor's overdoing it made Varys' job easier is all.

It's Varys' job to know about plots against the king, not about plots of king. For all of Varys' knowledge and powers of persuasion he still couldn't get Aerys to listen to him instead of Pycelle, and it's pretty well established that Aerys didn't trust anyone, which would include Varys. I see no reason he would have told Varys about the plot to blow up the city.

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3 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

It's Varys' job to know about plots against the king, not about plots of king. For all of Varys' knowledge and powers of persuasion he still couldn't get Aerys to listen to him instead of Pycelle, and it's pretty well established that Aerys didn't trust anyone, which would include Varys. I see no reason he would have told Varys about the plot to blow up the city.

I dunno... Varys knows everything because he hides in walls and listens...as do his birds.  It isn't really necessary for him to have been told about plots from Aerys himself...all he had to do was listen to conversations. 

I want to know why he would care enough to swap out Aegon, but not Rheanys?  Elia would surely not go along with that, and she would definitely be able to tell if the baby was her own son or not!  I think everything he has said about the swap is bull.  It just doesn't make sense.  fAegon can not be Elia's son really (unless they were both saved prior), and so my feeling is Varys was in disguise and getting out of dodge as soon as Pycelle said to open the gates. 

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16 hours ago, Lady bonehead said:

This was inspired by the previous fAegon thread.  I don't really think Aegon is genuine, but Varys's story helps to fill in one important plot hole:  what the heck was he doing during the fall of King's Landing?

He went to Maegor's Holdfast and saved the life of young Prince Aegon, of course. If there was a time when Varys could actually get to Elia and make the exchange it would have been during the Sack, not before. Maegor's Holdfast doesn't have any secret passageways and listening posts aside from the king's own secret escape route, used by Aegon II and his children during the Dance; a passageway unconnected to the other ways.

Considering that Elia and the children were Aerys' hostages for quite some time there is little chance Varys could have gotten to them at any other time since Aerys would have posted guards outside their apartments.

And, quite honestly, before the Trident there was no need whatsoever to spirit Aegon away to safety. Rhaegar could have won at the Trident, after all.

Cersei does not make plans to get Tommen out of the city while it looks like they could actually win the war.

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As the spymaster, he must have been aware of both the potential threat to Aegon and Rhaenys and the wildfire plan.  He may or may not have addressed the first threat, but he seems to have done nothing about the second.  Jaime and Pycelle were the only other men in a position to influence the situation and they both did something.

So you think Lord Qarlton Chelsted, the Hand, figured out what Aerys was doing all by himself? Certainly not impossible, but Varys certainly had the means to know everything about Aerys' ultimate plans, and he also had the brains to not try to dissuade him or openly confront him about that. Thus he used Chelsted as a pawn to test the water and when Aerys refused to listen to reason it was Chelsted who burned, not Varys.

And then there is Jaime. Did Jaime decide all by himself to save KL from his Mad King? Could be, but then - did Barristan Selmy decide all by himself to remember his loyalties to House Targaryen? No, Varys helped him with that, too.

Once the gates were opened it became clear Aerys would burn down the city, and Varys certainly could not have that. Without KL, the Red Keep, and the Iron Throne the Seven Kingdoms would fracture again. Robert wouldn't have become a king of ashes, he wouldn't have been a king at all.

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Frankly, I don't believe Varys actually cares about "the children".  This is a man who buys children in bulk and uses them as disposable pawns.

Well, he never says he is doing it for the children he uses as pawns. Just as kings don't rule the Realm for the good of the men they command to die in their wars (of conquest).

But also keep in mind that nothing indicates that he actually kills those children. They apparently do dangerous work, crawling around in the dark in places where you can get yourself killed rather easily, but they are not killed by Varys. Illyrio talks about the birds dying easily, not that they have to rid themselves of them once they reach a certain age, or something of that sort.

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But the real question is why Varys did nothing about the wildfire.  Was he planning to escape himself at the last minute and let the city blow up?  Did he have a plan to stop the pyromancers?  Or was he confident that Jaime would take care of the problem?

See above. He may have been successful in the end. The chance that Varys could have escaped or hidden from the wildfire inferno is difficult to say. If he had run away immediately after the council session, perhaps, but only if he had gone to a ship. The fire would have sucked all the air out of the catacombs; he would have died down there had he decided to hide there.

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11 hours ago, Bonkers said:

I dunno... Varys knows everything because he hides in walls and listens...as do his birds.  It isn't really necessary for him to have been told about plots from Aerys himself...all he had to do was listen to conversations. 

I want to know why he would care enough to swap out Aegon, but not RheanysElia would surely not go along with that, and she would definitely be able to tell if the baby was her own son or not!  I think everything he has said about the swap is bull.  It just doesn't make sense.  fAegon can not be Elia's son really (unless they were both saved prior), and so my feeling is Varys was in disguise and getting out of dodge as soon as Pycelle said to open the gates

Varys hadn't been at court very long at this point. He may not have had his little birds in action yet at this point. His original birds, or mice, or whatever were Essosi. But not every kid in Essos can speak the Common Tongue. He undoubtedly needed a new staff when he changed locations, and the training would take time because of all the secret passageways in the Red Keep. It's not a cinch that his entire spy network was flawless at the time of the Rebellion. It is by the time the story begins, but then he's had 15 years to work on it.

First of all, we don't know that he didn't plan to swap out Rhaenys.

Second, it's much harder to find an acceptable stunt-double for a three year old than a one year old. Three year olds talk. Three year olds have food preferences. Three year olds have identifiable personalities, and preferences for people. A Rhaenys stunt double would have to be trained. An Aegon stunt double just has to toddle around and maybe say a word or two. Not to mention that a Targ-looking kid will be a lot easier to find nearby than a Dornish-looking one. Three hundred years or horny Targaryen men in the capital, you bet there are little Valyrian-looking tots running around. Rhaenys' replacement would take longer, no question. 

Third, if they left it til the last minute there may not have been time to get Rhaenys out. It's possible that Varys got Aegon safely out, went to get Rhaenys, and she picked up on the grown-ups' tension (and the fact that her brother didn't come back with Varys) and ran. Three year olds are fast! No one could have caught her, and they would have had to search for her. 

Fourth, like it or not in a medieval society the boy is of greater value. The boy is the one in the most danger of being killed. The boys is the priority.

How on earth do you know what Elia would or would not go along with? Of course she'd be willing to pretend a double was her baby in order for her baby to be saved. I don't think anyone with any brain power has ever suggested that Elia didn't know about the switch. You're assuming Rhaenys wasn't part of the plan but you don't know that.

Varys did not leave King's Landing. So you're wrong on that. Nor did he abandon ship as soon as Pycelle said the king should let Tywin in. He stayed there and argued and tried to get Aerys to see the danger. When that failed, he stuck around to work for Robert. Quite frankly if he'd left and it was discovered that Prince Aegon was missing, everyone would have known what he'd done, and he'd be of no further use to Aegon, Dany, or anyone else. His staying in a position of power in Westeros was key to everything he's planned.

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1 hour ago, Praetor Xyn said:

Tywin killing the children was absolutely a done deal. Robert was on his way, and after overthrowing one king why would he let a baby king rise? That would have made the Rebellion pointless, so if Tywin did that Robert would have just killed him.

Maybe Varys had informants in the Lannister camp that overheard Tywin and Kevan talking about killing the kids. 

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He was hiding probably, no amount of lies and scheming could protect him from one of the Lannister soldier's if they came across him, and I doubt Tywin would of bothered to order them to not kill him in the Sack or punish them for killing him. He might have even wanted him dead, he was the voice in Aerys' ear and we know how Tywin and Aerys felt about each other. 

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Here's what we know.  Varys tried to counsel Aerys to keep the city gates closed.  Aerys chose to listen to Pycelle instead and open the gates.  What would a loyal man do in this case?  The only thing he could.  Save who he can.  He saved Aegon. 

Varys stayed behind and convinced Robert that he can still be useful.  He stayed behind and pretended to support the Lannisters.  Leaving the city would mean becoming a fugitive and no way to get back his job.  He stayed behind and played his part well. 

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