My thoughts on Varys and Illyrio's plan

[Neddy's Girl]

I'm rereading the entire series and I've broken off from ADWD after The Griffin Reborn to give some thought to how and why Varys and Illyrio brought us here.

I know, I know, this has been discussed tons of times, but I still have questions and I'm hoping you help me work through them.

I'm trying not to present this as an analysis or theory, but rather my observations and ponderings.

 

A couple of things:

I don't believe ASOIAF is simply about who gets to sit on the iron throne at the end - there's more to it than that.

I do have faith that GRRM has known all along where this is going.

I'm not a proponent of one Varys/ Illyrio theory over the others.

I'm not debating whether or not Aegon is real.

I love visiting the forum and reading theories so my thoughts have been somewhat shaped by the hard work other users have already put in.

I'll use spoiler tags where I go off on a tangent to try to maintain conciseness.

Varys and Illyrio's Aim:

Whether their motivation is benevolent, malevolent, revenge, self-interest, or simply Targaryen loyalty, it seems like Varys and Illyrio want Aegon VI (Targaryen, Blackfyre, Piss Water) on the iron throne.  He's the one into whom they put a great deal of time and effort to shape for rule.

Viserys and Daenerys:

In contrast to Aegon, Viserys and Daenerys seem to be ignored until they arrive at Illyrio's manse, six months before Dany's wedding.  This leads me to believe they weren't always part of the plan.  (otherwise, why risk their deaths while they had to fend for themselves?)

I think that either Varys and Illyrio suddenly realised the siblings could be of use, or something happened to make them take action.

 

It occurs to me that if Varys and Illyrio found out about the Martells' plan to marry Arianne to Viserys, they may want to prevent this by ensuring the loyalty of Dany and Viserys, or just keeping them busy.  But this is pure speculation on my part.

Now engaging the Dothraki could be two fold.  Mainly, it gives Aegon a substantial army, but could also be useful in removing the horse lords from the free cities at a reduced cost.

I have seen arguments that the Dothraki invasion was to be a distraction and/ or a way to cause chaos, in order for Aegon to land and become the saviour of the Seven Kingdoms.  As appealing as this is, it presents a couple of problems for me:  How does Aegon go on defeat tens of thousands of Dothraki in Westeros and still fight the lords who refuse to bend the knee?  The realm has already had more than its share of war so it seems superfluous.  And it seemed they were always supposed to support Aegon as Tristan Rivers says in The Lost Lord:

Quote

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back."

 

I have seen people ask what's in this match for the Dothraki.  Daenerys may be an exile, but she is still a princess from an ancient and powerful family.  On top of that, she is young, beautiful, and virginal; she makes a good bride.  Better than this is that the Dothraki's support of Viserys and Daenerys gives them licence to invade Westeros and all it's riches.

One more thing: what was supposed to happen to Viserys?  Was his death or imprisonment already arranged in Westeros?  I cannot see him stepping aside for his nephew to ascend the iron throne.

 

Daenerys and her dragons:

Viserys's death must have been a blow to the conspirators, most probably losing them Drogo and his Khalasar; Drogo's death destroying all hope of Dothraki support... and then Daenerys hatches her dragons and things change.

Dany goes from being a chattel who would most likely die on the Dothraki Sea (as Illyrio once believed and tells Tyrion on his second ADWD chapter) to valuable beyond measure.  Illyrio sends Barristan to her and ships to bring her to Volantis, and as a widow, she becomes a perfect match for Aegon; her three dragons will dramatically improve his chances of conquering the Seven Kingdoms.

Varys and Illyrio adapt their plan to this new opportunity.

 

There is some discussion as to whether or not Illyrio knew Dany would hatch the eggs.  It seems unlikely that he believed this, else why leave her without support for so long if he thought she was special?  They were most probably an extremely lavish gift, a show of power, and a taste of the wealth to come for the Dothraki conquering Westeros.

 

Events in the Seven Kingdoms:

Despite Varys's far reach, things in Westeros happen unexpectedly, so once again the pair must adapt.

The precursor to the War of the Five Kings is a number of acts of aggression by the Lannisters and Starks.  These are often orchestrated by Petyr Baelish.  As far as I recall, there is no indication that he is working with Varys, but rather seems to work against him for his own ends.

Quote

“I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other’s throats, whether we will it or no.”“Too soon, too soon,” the voice with the accent complained. “What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay.”  Varys and Illyrio in Arya's AGOT chapter

What ultimately triggers the war is Robert's death and the issue of succession.  It seems that Varys tried to prevent the illegitimacy of Cersei's children being revealed until their plans in Essos are realised.  From the same chapter:

Quote

“… found one bastard,” one said. “The rest will come soon. A day, two days, a fortnight …”  “And when he learns the truth, what will he do?” a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities. “The gods alone know,”

...

“If one Hand can die, why not a second?” replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard.[/quote]

That's not to say that Varys and Illyrio don't use these things to their advantage.  For example, Varys does not appear to play a part in Joffrey's death - again it is Little Finger. 

 

If anything, Joffrey as a less sympathetic and generally worse ruler than Tommen puts Aegon in a better position as the "saviour" of Westeros.

  But when Tyrion is arrested it gives Varys the opportunity to remove yet another competent advisor (as with Barristan) from the enemy, provide him to Aegon and Daenerys, and sew discord between the Lannisters and Tyrells, which he does as Rugen the undergaoler.

What a gift Tywin's death must have been.  The absence of the most powerful (?) man in the Seven Kingdoms is to Aegon's advantage, and at this point it looks like Varys and Illyrio are ready to start engineering a little more chaos: just look at the epilogue of ADWD.

A lot more happens in Westeros of course, but for brevity I have just given the above example.

 

Any expansion or contradiction would be most welcome, as I know there is much more to Varys and Illyrio's plan - help me get my head around it!  But for now I'm just going to divert slightly to what their motivation might be.  (In spoiler tags to preserve the main post.)

 

 

Varys and Illyrio may be doing this for personal gain.  The issue with this is that they both have an awful lot.  Varys is extremely important, Illyrio is extremely wealthy.

They may want to put a Blackfyre on the throne.  There are multiple arguments for and against this on this forum that you can peruse and decide for yourself.

They're just doing it for mischief/ revenge for what's been done to them.  Well I guess this could be the case, but it seems like more of a Show storyline than one from the intricate and brilliant books.  (And yes, I am throwing shade!)

They're Targaryen loyalists.  Why not?  Jon Connington and Barristan Selmy both believe the Kingdoms are better served with a dragon on the throne.

Real or fake, they believe Aegon is absolutely the best person to sit on the iron throne and will bring peace and prosperity to the Seven Kingdoms.  In a series where many act out of self-interest, this reason and the last seem to be the most difficult to accept.  But think about it: do you as a human want to help people you've never met?  To prevent suffering and foster peace?  Why can these characters not share this altruism?  After all, we see it in the leaders that Jon and Jaime become.

And finally - for the realm.  If Varys and Illyrio do care about what happens to Westeros (and indeed the known world), and they know about the threat from the others, and they subscribe to The Prince that was Promised / Azor Available Reborn, then they could well believe, as Rheagar did, that Aegon is the one who can save them.  (I think they almost certainly do not know about Jon Snow's heritage.)

 

TL;DR:  Varys and Illyrio want Aegon on the iron throne.  Daenerys (and Viserys) is a late addition to the plan, but becomes invaluable once she had dragons.  Varys and Illyrio are able to adapt their plans to happenings in Westeros and Essos.  We have a lot of textual support as to how they do this (although it takes a little dissecting), but the why remains a mystery for now.

[Praetor Xyn]

A couple of my thoughts on the subject:

1. I believe Illyrio intended for Daenerys to go to Asshai on the long shot chance dragon eggs might hatch, as Jorah keeps trying to direct her there until they do. I don't think he ever counted on it or thought it likely though.
2. I believe they got Viserys killed on purpose. On two separate occasions, Jorah and Daenerys handmaiden(the one Illyrio gave her) serve as go between, and I think they riled Viserys up on purpose or mistranslated things on purpose because he was an uncontrollable loose cannon and a liability.

[Neddy's Girl]

I need to look into number one a bit more, but that's very interesting.

As for number two, it had crossed my mind, but I wonder if it was another adaptation.  Because if Illyrio is telling the truth to Tyrion and didn't believe Dany will survive, then he would have two dead Targs and therefore no Dothraki.  So maybe when Dany starts to prove her mettle, and Viserys's behaviour gets worse, they see it as a chance to do away with him?

[Neddy's Girl]

Here's another thing you got me thinking about with Asshai: is Quaith anything to do with the plan?

[Praetor Xyn]

5 minutes ago, Neddy's Girl said:

I need to look into number one a bit more, but that's very interesting.

As for number two, it had crossed my mind, but I wonder if it was another adaptation.  Because if Illyrio is telling the truth to Tyrion and didn't believe Dany will survive, then he would have two dead Targs and therefore no Dothraki.  So maybe when Dany starts to prove her mettle, and Viserys's behaviour gets worse, they see it as a chance to do away with him?

I agree with your assessment on how number two likely went down. Viserys was just to arrogant, spiteful, and ignorant tpti conquer anything, but he wasn't truly expendable until Daenerys starts to thrive.

 

5 minutes ago, Neddy's Girl said:

Here's another thing you got me thinking about with Asshai: is Quaith anything to do with the plan?

I don't think Quaithe is involved with Varys and Illyrio. She really seems benevolent. There are various actors I believe to be Varys and Illyrio cronies, but I can't call the list to my head on the spot.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Viserys and Dany never actually starve though, which they would have if they were entirely on their own. Viserys' pride would have gotten him killed and his sister sold into slavery ages ago if someone hadn't looked after them just enough to keep them alive. And knowing Viserys' it was probably best to let him think that he was in charge of keeping them both from starving, rather than let him get the idea that they were being given charity.

Viserys was going to fall in battle. Happens all the time, and certainly easy to arrange.

Quaithe is definitely not in on it.

On another thread, can't recall which at the moment, we're having an interesting discussion about what it takes to hatch dragons and whether it requires a woman's involvement (mitochondrial DNA + blood bonding, etc). If that theory is right and Illyrio knows it, then he might have known Dany at least had a better chance of hatching the eggs than Viserys or Aegon would. He didn't have any choice but let her go with Drogo, because the custom of presenting the bride at the Dosh Khaleen had to be performed. But he undoubtedly thought she'd return. After all, Drogo owns a manse in Pentos.

[Maxxine]

2 hours ago, Praetor Xyn said:

I believe they got Viserys killed on purpose. On two separate occasions, Jorah and Daenerys handmaiden(the one Illyrio gave her) serve as go between, and I think they riled Viserys up on purpose or mistranslated things on purpose because he was an uncontrollable loose cannon and a liability.

But if that's the case why not kill him earlier? You could easily have killed him and blamed it on Robert and still have Dany to sell to the Dothraki. Why even give him the chance to get an army that could oppose your alleged real plan of Aegon?

[Bran's Legs]

The whole Aegon narrative should have been 86ed by an editor. I hate it worse than Dorne.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Jorah was not trying to get Daenerys to go to Asshai as a destination...

Quote

"Your khal is good as dead, Princess."

"No, he can't die, he mustn't, it was only a cut." Dany took his large callused hand in her own small ones, and held it tight between them. "I will not let him die . . . "

Ser Jorah gave a bitter laugh. "Khaleesi or queen, that command is beyond your power. Save your tears, child. Weep for him tomorrow, or a year from now. We do not have time for grief. We must go, and quickly, before he dies."

Dany was lost. "Go? Where should we go?"

"Asshai, I would say. It lies far to the south, at the end of the known world, yet men say it is a great port. We will find a ship to take us back to Pentos. It will be a hard journey, make no mistake. Do you trust your khas? Will they come with us?"

Daenerys VIII, Game 64

Quote

Ser Jorah took her arm. "My queen, Drogo will have no use for dragon's eggs in the night lands. Better to sell them in Asshai. Sell one and we can buy a ship to take us back to the Free Cities. Sell all three and you will be a wealthy woman all your days."

Daenerys X, Game 72

In Daenerys III, Clash 40, we see Jorah’s counsel to Daenerys after arriving in Qarth. . .

Quote

"I would be glad to leave this city, if truth be told," the knight said when she was done. "But not for Asshai."

So, Jorah is definitely not steering Daenerys to Asshai on behalf of Illyrio as some readers have suggested.

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

There are some things that have always rubbed me the wrong way about this whole plot line:

1) The dragon eggs: Why would Illyrio waste 3 perfectly good dragon eggs on Dany and Drogo instead of giving them to Aegon? He didn't know they were gonna hatch, fine, but they're still incredibly valuable. Even if Illyrio is super wealthy as it is, just think of how many sellswords he could get for Aegon, how many rulers of the Free Cities he could bribe, how many Faceless Men he could hire.

But most importantly, the true value of the eggs lies in their being a symbol of House Targaryen. Remember how in "The Mystery Knight" everybody wanted Daemon II to win the egg as part of his coming out (heh, bad choice of words) party? Remember how Bloodraven put particular effort in obtaining the egg? Well, that's because dragon eggs are a symbol of legitimacy, something that Aegon could really use. He's got no proof of his being the real Aegon, but 3 dragon eggs could've gone a long way to fix that particular problem. 

2) The role of the Dothraki: One of the most popular theories, as the OP said, is that Viserys + Dany and the Dothraki + the Golden Company were supposed to go to Westeros and make a big mess for Aegon to swoop in and clean up. That's certainly what the GC claims in aDwD. Well, the question is: If Varys/Ilyrio wanted a foreign enemy for Westeros to be united under Aegon, why pick the one tribe who's afraid of the ocean and therefore the least likely to make it across the Narrow Sea? Why not marry Dany off to some random ambitious prince or whatever, give him the GC and let him wreck shit up? Aegon still shows up at the end of the day and is hailed as a liberator.

3) Assuming that Aegon is a Blackfyre, why have the GC on the losing side? That is, with Viserys and the Dothraki. Why have them fight Aegon at all? Was the plan to have them switch sides later on and betray Viserys? The GC rarely or never breaks a contract, they take that stuff very seriously. 

4) The most important question in my opinion, as the OP says, is: Why did Illyrio/Varys took so long to contact Dany and Viserys? I think I read somewhere that GRRM confirmed that Illyrio/Varys didn't know of the Martells' plan. If that's true, then what were Illyrio/Varys' waiting for? How were they hoping to get Aegon on the throne? 

Now, I don't like to use the word "retcon" lightly, but I honestly think all of this made more sense when it was just Dany and Viserys going to invade. 

 

[Bonkers]

3 hours ago, Bran's Legs said:

The whole Aegon narrative should have been 86ed by an editor. I hate it worse than Dorne.

WOAH!  hahaha..... that is a massive call, considering we don't even know who he really is at the moment, and his companions have yet to all be revealed.  Hopefully The George gives us some fireworks in Winds.

[Isobel Harper]

RE: Viserys and Dothraki joining Aegon.  Aerys II named Viserys his heir after Rhaegar died.  This act in itself doesn't make Aegon disinherited, but it makes succession muddled with regard to who Viserys considered his heir.  Viserys only knew of Daenerys being alive, so he would have assumed she would be his heir should he have no children.  By joining Viserys to Aegon, Viserys has the chance to name Aegon as his heir and to recognize him for who he is: Aegon VI. (Real or fake, Aegon will have trouble legitimizing his identity and claim.  The Small Council in Dance is already doubting it.)

[Isobel Harper]

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Jorah was not trying to get Daenerys to go to Asshai as a destination...

Daenerys VIII, Game 64

Daenerys X, Game 72

In Daenerys III, Clash 40, we see Jorah’s counsel to Daenerys after arriving in Qarth. . .

So, Jorah is definitely not steering Daenerys to Asshai on behalf of Illyrio as some readers have suggested.

In those two Game scenes, Drogo is as good as dead in the Daenerys 8 and dead in Daenerys 10.  Jorah would rather keep Dany safe than risk going to Asshai at this point.  

In Clash, the dragon eggs have already hatched.  No need to go to Asshai anymore.  

[XIIIsnow]

12 hours ago, Praetor Xyn said:

A couple of my thoughts on the subject:

1. I believe Illyrio intended for Daenerys to go to Asshai on the long shot chance dragon eggs might hatch, as Jorah keeps trying to direct her there until they do. I don't think he ever counted on it or thought it likely though.
2. I believe they got Viserys killed on purpose. On two separate occasions, Jorah and Daenerys handmaiden(the one Illyrio gave her) serve as go between, and I think they riled Viserys up on purpose or mistranslated things on purpose because he was an uncontrollable loose cannon and a liability.

Hmmm  great topic btw ! There you have a few of my own thoughts:

1. I am not sure that Illyrio meant for Danny to go to Asshai. Yes, Jorah is trying to persuade her to go there several times, but  I think (not sure now) that he is doing that in order to go as far as possible from Varys birds and spys. I think it is his conscience that makes him "save" Danny by going to the end of the world. On the other hand, Quaith is advising Danny to go to Asshai, so I don't know what to do with that

2. I think that Viserys was so wild and arrogant that his very presence in the camp of Dothraki was doomed to disaster, and I think that Illyrio and Varys both new that. Danny was about to get married for Drogo and to leave and die in Vaes Dothrak, with no opportunity  to ever go back to Westeros. Maybe they planned Dothraki army beside Aegon, but not with Viserys as their general. 

3. I do agree that eggs were no more than lavish gifts appropriate for Targarien princess. If they knew they are going to hatch, Danny would never see them. 

4. If we assume that Aegon was bred for a ruler, than we can also assume that both Danny and Viserys were no more than complication for them. And they did bred Aegon - he was trained with sword but also with knowledge and fate for years. I am not sure if he is real deal or Blackfyre, but very fact that they tried to move Reagar brother and sister and put Aegon infront, might point to the fact that he has to be unconfronted when speaking about inheritance. 

[Isobel Harper]

@Neddy's Girl 

Here's what I believe. 

Melario of Norvos is a Blackfyre descendant.  Doran married her because of this or in spite of this... either way, he married her out of love, not politics.  Grrm has stated this himself.  This parallels Mary Stewart (Queen of Scots) marrying Lord Darnley:  Both were great-grandchildren of Henry VII.  Their marriage was met with suspicion as it strengthened Mary's potential claim to the throne.  (Elizabeth I was queen at this time.  Mary was catholic, and many catholics didn't recognize Elizabeth's parents' marriage or Elizabeth's right to the throne.)  But in truth, Mary was just utterly infatuated.  

Varys, a descendant of Aerion Brightflame, was castrated by Blackfyre descendants.  Therefore, he hates anything "Blackfyre."  Varys misunderstood Doran and Melario's marriage.  He assumed it was a plot to gain the throne.  

Here's the Targaryen family tree before the Blackfyre Rebellion:

Rhaenyra >>  Aegon III* then Viserys II**

Aegon III* >> Daena (et al.) >> Daemon Blackfyre

Viserys II** >> Aegon IV >> Daeron II

Regardless of who Daemon's father was, he was legitimized.  The thing is, via Dornish Law, Daena and Daemon Blackfyre should have inherited the throne, not Aegon IV.  (All current Targaryens descend from Aegon IV.)

Varys comes to court and convinces  (or at least plays a role in convincing) Aerys to betroth Rhaegar to Elia.  If Doran wanted his family on the throne (as Varys believed) let it at least be his sister, who had no Blackfyre heritage.  Doran would never rebel against his own sister and her children to put his own children on the throne. 

Varys saves Aegon from the Red Keep because this child is the only way Varys can deter Doran from the throne.  Again, Doran would never go against Elia's children.  To make Aegon even more appealing to Doran as a prospective king, Varys has Aegon raised along the Rhoyne so that he might gain pride in his Dornish/Rhoynar heritage.

Here's the thing.  Pre-Robert's Rebellion Doran didn't care about the throne.  However, after Elia's death and Baratheon and Lannister taking the throne, this began to change.  (Ironically, Varys' fear became self-fulfilling.  If Elia had never married Rhaegar in the first place, she would have never been killed.)  Putting his daughter, Arianne, on the throne is part of Doran's revenge against the Lannisters. 

How to get Dorne behind supporting a bastard/descendants of a bastard line?  Look at the Sand Snakes.  They are walking, talking propaganda.  The Sand Snakes enjoy celebrity status (or the medieval equivalent to it) in Dorne.  And they're bastards.  Couple this with Arianne's popularity in Dorne (yes, all that harp playing and playing the hostess DID have a point), and you have an entire kingdom willing to back Arianne's claim to the throne via the bastard line of Daemon Targaryen. 

I'm still unsure whether Doran wants to marry Arianne to Aegon.  However, their marriage would have one huge advantage.  They could claim the throne via paternal AND maternal heritage.  Aegon could claim it through his father, and if someone (like Daenerys) tries to claim it as a woman, Arianne can put put her claim in through the same logic, as a descendant of Daena/Daemon/Melario.  If Doran is unsure whether he should marry Arianne to Aegon, he's probably at least very tempted to. 

 

 

[Praetor Xyn]

10 hours ago, Maxxine said:

But if that's the case why not kill him earlier? You could easily have killed him and blamed it on Robert and still have Dany to sell to the Dothraki. Why even give him the chance to get an army that could oppose your alleged real plan of Aegon?

I'm not claiming to have that answer, these are just possibilities.

• When he actually dies is about the first time I'd argue Daenerys was strong enough to handle it without emotional scarring.
• That was the best opportunity to make it wholly his fault. Drawing a sword inside Vaes Dothrak is a death sentence, it's easy to prompt him to do that, making it his fault.
• Once he was with the Dothraki it was clear they hated him and if either of them was going to command it would be Daenerys. He's no threat at all so there's no reason to kill him until the best opportunity presents itself.
• Before the wedding they could have done it, but again it might have made Daenerys an emotional cripple incapable of winning Dragons heart.

[Praetor Xyn]

9 minutes ago, Isobel Harper said:

@Neddy's Girl 

Here's what I believe. 

Melario of Norvos is a Blackfyre descendant.  Doran married her because of this or in spite of this... either way, he married her out of love, not politics.  Grrm has stated this himself.  This parallels Mary Stewart (Queen of Scots) marrying Lord Darnley:  Both were great-grandchildren of Henry VII.  Their marriage was met with suspicion as it strengthened Mary's potential claim to the throne.  (Elizabeth I was queen at this time.  Mary was catholic, and many catholics didn't recognize Elizabeth's parents' marriage or Elizabeth's right to the throne.)  But in truth, Mary was just utterly infatuated.  

Varys, a descendant of Aerion Brightflame, was castrated by Blackfyre descendants.  Therefore, he hates anything "Blackfyre."  Varys misunderstood Doran and Melario's marriage.  He assumed it was a plot to gain the throne.  

Here's the Targaryen family tree before the Blackfyre Rebellion:

Rhaenyra >>  Aegon III* then Viserys II**

Aegon III* >> Daena (et al.) >> Daemon Blackfyre

Viserys II** >> Aegon IV >> Daeron II

Regardless of who Daemon's father was, he was legitimized.  The thing is, via Dornish Law, Daena and Daemon Blackfyre should have inherited the throne, not Aegon IV.  (All current Targaryens descend from Aegon IV.)

Varys comes to court and convinces  (or at least plays a role in convincing) Aerys to betroth Rhaegar to Elia.  If Doran wanted his family on the throne (as Varys believed) let it at least be his sister, who had no Blackfyre heritage.  Doran would never rebel against his own sister and her children to put his own children on the throne. 

Varys saves Aegon from the Red Keep because this child is the only way Varys can deter Doran from the throne.  Again, Doran would never go against Elia's children.  To make Aegon even more appealing to Doran as a prospective king, Varys has Aegon raised along the Rhoyne so that he might gain pride in his Dornish/Rhoynar heritage.

Here's the thing.  Pre-Robert's Rebellion Doran didn't care about the throne.  However, after Elia's death and Baratheon and Lannister taking the throne, this began to change.  (Ironically, Varys' fear became self-fulfilling.  If Elia had never married Rhaegar in the first place, she would have never been killed.)  Putting his daughter, Arianne, on the throne is part of Doran's revenge against the Lannisters. 

How to get Dorne behind supporting a bastard/descendants of a bastard line?  Look at the Sand Snakes.  They are walking, talking propaganda.  The Sand Snakes enjoy celebrity status (or the medieval equivalent to it) in Dorne.  And they're bastards.  Couple this with Arianne's popularity in Dorne (yes, all that harp playing and playing the hostess DID have a point), and you have an entire kingdom willing to back Arianne's claim to the throne via the bastard line of Daemon Targaryen. 

I'm still unsure whether Doran wants to marry Arianne to Aegon.  However, their marriage would have one huge advantage.  They could claim the throne via paternal AND maternal heritage.  Aegon could claim it through his father, and if someone (like Daenerys) tries to claim it as a woman, Arianne can put put her claim in through the same logic, as a descendant of Daena/Daemon/Melario.  If Doran is unsure whether he should marry Arianne to Aegon, he's probably at least very tempted to. 

 

 

What you've said is interesting and not far from my own thoughts, but I think they were plotting whatever it is they're plotting long before Elia's death. Just look at Oberyn Martell's life. He forged 6 lengths of a maester's chain, soldered in a sellsword company (Second Sons if memory serves) before forming his own company (likely the Brave Companions), studied poison, etc., likely because it would be useful later.

[Isobel Harper]

21 minutes ago, Praetor Xyn said:

What you've said is interesting and not far from my own thoughts, but I think they were plotting whatever it is they're plotting long before Elia's death. Just look at Oberyn Martell's life. He forged 6 lengths of a maester's chain, soldered in a sellsword company (Second Sons if memory serves) before forming his own company (likely the Brave Companions), studied poison, etc., likely because it would be useful later.

True.  I've considered this too, as well as Doran truly having an ambition to the throne in the first place. 

 

[Isobel Harper]

To answer why Ilyrio and Varys waited to marry Dany when they did, Aegon turned 16 the same year Dany got married.  Legally, he was a man at that point on and could rule in his own name, rather than be controlled by a regent in his name. 

[devilish]

So basically Illyio goes into great pains in marrying Danny with Khal Drogo. He gives her 3 dragon eggs who are worth an army of sellswords, only to then have her killed. That’s not very smart isn’t it? Sure Danny was nearly poisoned. However guess what? Someone whose on Vary’s payroll saves her.

Regarding Jorah, we know that he was the spider’s puppet only to defect later on when he falls in love with the Targ. He is also the brain behind Danny’s decision to going to Astapor instead of Pentos.  Maybe the Mormont guy was afraid that Illyio would take Danny’s milkshake away from him? Kings were dying like flies back then, so Danny + GC + 3 baby dragons could turn Mace Tyrell’s head around. Surely it’s a better option then bending the knee to somebody whom you previously declared as illegitimate.