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Second strongest houses in each kingdom?


Quellon

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2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I should be tired of pointing it out by now, but can't let it stand uncorrected.

There simply is no clear answer on the North's most powerful vassal. This is not like the Royces in the Vale, the Hightowers in the Reach, the Yronwoods in Dorne or even the Freys in the Riverlands. 

There simply has been no concusive evidence on who is the most powerful vassal in the North. None at all, which is surprising since we have spent so much time with Northern or Northern based character. 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

House Manderly was the strongest Northern vassal House by a significant margin, at the start of the series.

We have no idea if that is true. You are welcome to show quotes from AGOT showing this, I'd love to read them, but there simply is no indication of who is the most powerful House in the North at the start of the series. 

We know, by ACOK, that the Manderlys are certainly the wealthiest, which means they are likely to be among the top (if not top) but beyond that there is no conclusive proof. 

What the start of the series does show us is that the Karstarks raise almost 1k more men than the Manderlys do for the war in the South. 

What it also describes is that at Moat Cailin it is the Starks, Umbers and Karstarks who control the three banners. 

 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

They have the largest population in the North, have the largest army and have the most money.

One out of three is certainly true, the other two is just speculation. 

 

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23 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

There simply is no clear answer on the North's most powerful vassal. This is not like the Royces in the Vale, the Hightowers in the Reach, the Yronwoods in Dorne or even the Freys in the Riverlands. 

There simply has been no concusive evidence on who is the most powerful vassal in the North. None at all, which is surprising since we have spent so much time with Northern or Northern based character. 

We have no idea if that is true. You are welcome to show quotes from AGOT showing this, I'd love to read them, but there simply is no indication of who is the most powerful House in the North at the start of the series. 

We know, by ACOK, that the Manderlys are certainly the wealthiest, which means they are likely to be among the top (if not top) but beyond that there is no conclusive proof. 

What the start of the series does show us is that the Karstarks raise almost 1k more men than the Manderlys do for the war in the South. 

What it also describes is that at Moat Cailin it is the Starks, Umbers and Karstarks who control the three banners. 

 

One out of three is certainly true, the other two is just speculation. 

 

Apart from a common sense assessment of their relative geographical position compared to other Northern lords, we have Wyman Manderly categorically stating to Davos in Dance that he STILL has more heavy cavalry than any lord North of the Neck, as of Dance.

The "STILL" comment indicates that this was true even before he suffered his losses, and it still remains so, after he has suffered his losses. Consider that he suffered signficantly more losses than House Bolton, who largely kept their forces intact while sending other Northern lords' men off to die in various battles, and it is quite evident that House Manderly must have had an even larger advantage over House Bolton at the start of the series than they do now.

 

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@Free Northman Reborn

Honestly, we don't know who is the second most powerful house in the North. The same goes for the Riverlands (the Freys are powerful, but we don't know where exactly they stand in comparison to the Whents, Darrys, Brackens, Blackwoods, and Mallisters), the Westerlands, and the Stormlands.

We can be reasonably sure about the Hightowers, the Yronwoods, and the Royces but aside from the Hightowers (who can marshal three times as many men as the other Highgarden bannermen) we don't have any relative numbers. Even with the Royces and the Yronwoods we don't know whether they still command the same amount of power they once had.

One can speculate, of course, but we don't have any conclusive evidence.

In the North I'd not feel confident making a decision between the Manderlys, the Boltons, the Dustins, and possibly even the Karstarks.

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23 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Apart from a common sense assessment of their relative geographical position compared to other Northern lords,

I don't see what that has to do with it as we have no idea about territories of each Lords lands. House Frey are the most Northern House in the Riverlands and they are the most powerful. 

And as I said, there is conclusive evidence for the Vale, Riverlands, Reach and Dorne for who is the most powerful vassal, there simply is not in the North which suggests that it is too close to call. 

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we have Wyman Manderly categorically stating to Davos in Dance that he STILL has more heavy cavalry than any lord North of the Neck, as of Dance.

Of course he has. He is the richest Lord and we see how useless heavy cavalry is  for Stannis' troops on their way to Winterfell. 

I imagine for many soldiers having heavy cavalry is something of an unneeded luxury given that it is unusable for such long periods of time. 

The fact that Wyman, who is clearly trying to sell himself to Davos, can only mention having more heavy horse rather that outright stating that he is the most powerful Lord in the North speaks volumes. It is clearly something that is quite close between two or more Northern Houses. 

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and it is quite evident that House Manderly must have had an even larger advantage over House Bolton at the start of the series than they do now.

If they had such an advantage why could they not beat the Boltons in the battle for Hornwood. This being despite the fact that Roose almost certainly sent more (maybe over a thousand) men with Robb. 

 

There is categorically no evidence in the books stating who is the most powerful House in the North, none at all.  All we can do is speculate. 

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I think the assessment of the second strongest house should be done retroactively based on evidence from the books. One shouldn't assess it at the current timeline because situation has been and is changing dramatically. If tWoW is published tomorrow, the rankings listed above would change overnight as many of these houses are in dire peril, e.g. Boltons, Hightower, Redwynes, Freys.

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11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

Honestly, we don't know who is the second most powerful house in the North. The same goes for the Riverlands (the Freys are powerful, but we don't know where exactly they stand in comparison to the Whents, Darrys, Brackens, Blackwoods, and Mallisters), the Westerlands, and the Stormlands.

We can be reasonably sure about the Hightowers, the Yronwoods, and the Royces but aside from the Hightowers (who can marshal three times as many men as the other Highgarden bannermen) we don't have any relative numbers. Even with the Royces and the Yronwoods we don't know whether they still command the same amount of power they once had.

One can speculate, of course, but we don't have any conclusive evidence.

In the North I'd not feel confident making a decision between the Manderlys, the Boltons, the Dustins, and possibly even the Karstarks.

Incorrect. We do know that the Freys are the Tully's most powerful bannermen. It is stated in the books. Perhaps if Nittanian is reading this, he would be able to find the exact quote where this is stated, as he seems to have an uncanny ability to find almost any reference in the books. I do however know that it is indeed confirmed.

As for the Manderlys. We have direct confirmation that they are the richest Northern lords. We have direct information from Wyman Manderly that they have the most heavy cavalry in the North. We have confirmation that they rule the economically most active part of the North. And the largest settlement. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they have the largest population of any Northern lord as a result of the economic activity in their lands.

And with the highest population and greatest wealth, the largest infantry army would go hand in hand.

So we can with great certainty state that they are indeed the most powerful vassals to the Starks.

 

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19 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

I don't see what that has to do with it as we have no idea about territories of each Lords lands. House Frey are the most Northern House in the Riverlands and they are the most powerful. 

And as I said, there is conclusive evidence for the Vale, Riverlands, Reach and Dorne for who is the most powerful vassal, there simply is not in the North which suggests that it is too close to call. 

Of course he has. He is the richest Lord and we see how useless heavy cavalry is  for Stannis' troops on their way to Winterfell. 

I imagine for many soldiers having heavy cavalry is something of an unneeded luxury given that it is unusable for such long periods of time. 

The fact that Wyman, who is clearly trying to sell himself to Davos, can only mention having more heavy horse rather that outright stating that he is the most powerful Lord in the North speaks volumes. It is clearly something that is quite close between two or more Northern Houses. 

If they had such an advantage why could they not beat the Boltons in the battle for Hornwood. This being despite the fact that Roose almost certainly sent more (maybe over a thousand) men with Robb. 

 

There is categorically no evidence in the books stating who is the most powerful House in the North, none at all.  All we can do is speculate. 

Far more likely is that he mentions the heavy horse because it is THE most important aspect of military strength, hence he doesn't even bother going into how many infantry he can raise. Infantry can be raised even if you push a sharpened stick into the hands of a peasant farmer, as we saw in the Frey army following Roose Bolton to the North.

Think about the heavy horse statement for a moment. As I stated above. House Bolton has over 1000 cavalry. Most likely around 1300 cavalry in fact, given the 600 that remained at the Dreadfort after their main force went with Rob. The Manderlys must have more than that. So 1500 at least. They are unlikely to have better than a 3-1 infantry to cavalry ratio, as even in the Reach that is not exceeded. So that means a minimum total armed strength of 6000 men.

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14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Incorrect. We do know that the Freys are the Tully's most powerful bannermen. It is stated in the books. Perhaps if Nittanian is reading this, he would be able to find the exact quote where this is stated, as he seems to have an uncanny ability to find almost any reference in the books. I do however know that it is indeed confirmed.

This the one you mean?

Quote

Blessedly, her son had shown better sense than her brother. Robb had greeted the Freys with every courtesy, found barracks space for the escort, and quietly asked Ser Desmond Grell to stand aside so Lothar might have the honor of helping to send Lord Hoster on his last voyage. He has learned a rough wisdom beyond his years, my son. House Frey might have abandoned the King in the North, but the Lord of the Crossing remained the most powerful of Riverrun's bannermen, and Lothar was here in his stead. ASOS, Cat IV

 

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3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Far more likely is that he mentions the heavy horse because it is THE most important aspect of military strength, hence he doesn't even bother going into how many infantry he can raise. Infantry can be raised even if you push a sharpened stick into the hands of a peasant farmer, as we saw in the Frey army following Roose Bolton to the North.

Think about the heavy horse statement for a moment. As I stated above. House Bolton has over 1000 cavalry. Most likely around 1300 cavalry in fact, given the 600 that remained at the Dreadfort after their main force went with Rob. The Manderlys must have more than that. So 1500 at least. They are unlikely to have more than a 3-1 infantry to cavalry ratio, as even in the Reach that is not exceeded. So that means a minimum total armed strength of 6000 men.

No, if Manderly could really raise more men than Bolton he would have said so. Pretty much every time people talk about army numbers in the series they talk about the total numbers, not just about the heavy horse, so it would be weird to switch it here for no reason. He can send more heavy cavalry because he is wealthier, thus able to support a higher ratio of cavalrymen among his troops, and because southern culture, which lies emphasis on knights and heavy cavalry, is stronger in his domain. And I guess the southern regions have better breedinggrounds for horses in general. 

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14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Perhaps if Nittanian is reading this, he would be able to find the exact quote where this is stated, as he seems to have an uncanny ability to find almost any reference in the books.

You can do that, too. @Nittanian just knows how to work A Search of Ice and Fire.

14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the Manderlys. We have direct confirmation that they are the richest Northern lords. We have direct information from Wyman Manderly that they have the most heavy cavalry in the North. We have confirmation that they rule the economically most active part of the North. And the largest settlement. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they have the largest population of any Northern lord as a result of the economic activity in their lands.

And with the highest population and greatest wealth, the largest infantry army would go hand in hand.

So we can with great certainty state that they are indeed the most powerful vassals to the Starks.

But what we do not know is how large their lands are. If the Bolton or the Dustin lands are much larger then they might, theoretically, be able to support a larger population than the Manderlys.

But then, this kind of discussion is not really going to lead anywhere. We don't even know how one would decide who was the second most powerful house in a certain region unless we had actually very good criteria to compare them.

 

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8 minutes ago, John Doe said:

No, if Manderly could really raise more men than Bolton he would have said so. Pretty much every time people talk about army numbers in the series they talk about the total numbers, not just about the heavy horse, so it would be weird to switch it here for no reason. He can send more heavy cavalry because he is wealthier, thus able to support a higher ratio of cavalrymen among his troops, and because southern culture, which lies emphasis on knights and heavy cavalry, is stronger in his domain. And I guess the southern regions have better breedinggrounds for horses in general. 

That is just regurgitating Lord Varys's favorite essay on the matter. Almost word for word, in fact. Think for yourself, man.

Even Manderly won't have better than a 3-1 infantry-cavalry ratio. Else he would exceed the Reach in that respect. And for him to exceed the Bolton's heavy horse, a 3-1 ratio would give him around 6000 men altogether.

 

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6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Far more likely

Why is that far more likely? Because you want it to be?

You came into this thread bemoaning anyone having the gall to pick any other House other than Manderly. I simply pointed out that there is no conclusive evidence stating that the Manderlys are the most powerful House like there is in the Riverlands, Vale, Reach and Dorne. 

You have failed to find any real evidence instead relying on x hopefully meaning y. I'm sorry, but that is not conclusive. 

 

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Think about the heavy horse statement for a moment. As I stated above. House Bolton has over 1000 cavalry.

Do they? Prove it. We are never told how many cavalry Roose brings South with him nor are we told how many of the just under 600 with Ramsay is horsed. 

The Boltons may well have over 1k cavalry, but that has never been proven in the books.

Now you may well be right, but complaining in a thread about others having a different opinion to you on a subject that, so far, does not have a correct answer is a little churlish. 

You are guessing, just like others are guessing. Give them the respect they have given you.  

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Most likely around 1300 cavalry in fact,

How is that a fact? You are pulling numbers out of thin air right now.

Either provide evidence for these numbers or accept that your opinion on this subject carries the same value as every other persons in this thread. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That is just regurgitating Lord Varys's favorite essay on the matter. Almost word for word, in fact. Think for yourself, man.

Even Manderly won't have better than a 3-1 infantry-cavalry ratio. Else he would exceed the Reach in that respect. And for him to exceed the Bolton's heavy horse, a 3-1 ratio would give him around 6000 men altogether.

 

This seems to be a good estimate. Remember that Manderly also built about 50 warships. Using the typical scaling of 100 men per ship, it gives you 5000 men only in to crew the ships, if not more.

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1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Incorrect. We do know that the Freys are the Tully's most powerful bannermen. It is stated in the books. Perhaps if Nittanian is reading this, he would be able to find the exact quote where this is stated, as he seems to have an uncanny ability to find almost any reference in the books. I do however know that it is indeed confirmed.

As for the Manderlys. We have direct confirmation that they are the richest Northern lords. We have direct information from Wyman Manderly that they have the most heavy cavalry in the North. We have confirmation that they rule the economically most active part of the North. And the largest settlement. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they have the largest population of any Northern lord as a result of the economic activity in their lands.

And with the highest population and greatest wealth, the largest infantry army would go hand in hand.

So we can with great certainty state that they are indeed the most powerful vassals to the Starks.

 

Yes, I definitely think Manderlys are richest and most powerful. Had not Wyman been murdered, they would have done more to help Stannis. Boltons got the support of the Lannisters, that is why they are for now standing stronger...but not for much longer.

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Why is that far more likely? Because you want it to be?

You came into this thread bemoaning anyone having the gall to pick any other House other than Manderly. I simply pointed out that there is no conclusive evidence stating that the Manderlys are the most powerful House like there is in the Riverlands, Vale, Reach and Dorne. 

You have failed to find any real evidence instead relying on x hopefully meaning y. I'm sorry, but that is not conclusive. 

 

Do they? Prove it. We are never told how many cavalry Roose brings South with him nor are we told how many of the just under 600 with Ramsay is horsed. 

The Boltons may well have over 1k cavalry, but that has never been proven in the books.

Now you may well be right, but complaining in a thread about others having a different opinion to you on a subject that, so far, does not have a correct answer is a little churlish. 

You are guessing, just like others are guessing. Give them the respect they have given you.  

How is that a fact? You are pulling numbers out of thin air right now.

Either provide evidence for these numbers or accept that your opinion on this subject carries the same value as every other persons in this thread. 

 

Look, I get that you are trying to make a statement and all, but then you need to do your homework.

According to Maester Luwin 3300 of the 12000 men gathered at Winterfell were armored lances and knights. That's a ratio of 27.5%. So we know that an average ratio of 27.5% armored lances applied to the Houses gathered at Winterfell. We'll come back to that in a moment. For now fast forward to the Red Wedding.

We are told the 3500 men Roose brings to the Twins are mostly Dreadfort men, with some Karhold men too. However, the bulk of the 300 Karstark horse was with Robb, so that leaves the 2000 Karstark foot with Roose, and maybe a small number of horse to guard Harrion himself. It seems the Karstarks were heavily involved in the thick of the fighting at the Green Fork, as Harrion Karstark was captured there, so one would assume he was surrounded by his Karhold men at the time. So I expect the Karstarks suffered heavy losses there.

Then, we get this from Roose (thanks Lord Varys for the search of Ice and Fire resource. My references will grow a lot stronger in future thanks to that, as opposed to quoting everything from memory as I tried to do before).:

Bolton gave a soft chuckle. "Harrion Karstark was captive here when we took the castle, did you know? I gave him all the Karhold men still with me and sent him off with Glover. I do hope nothing ill befell him at Duskendale . . . else Alys Karstark would be all that remains of Lord Rickard's progeny." He chose another prune. "Fortunately for you, I have no need of a wife. I wed the Lady Walda Frey whilst I was at the Twins."
 
So we now know that whatever Karstark men were left with Roose, went to Duskendale, where most of the Northern host under Robett Glover was slaughtered. And to make matters worse, even those Karstark men who survived this slaughter, are accounted for by this quote from Roose to Jaime:
 
Glover and Tallhart were broken at Duskendale, but remnants of their host are still abroad, with the Mountain slaughtering the stragglers. A thousand Karstarks prowl the lands south and east of Riverrun, hunting you...

So we can see that any Karstarks that are included in Roose's 3500 when he arrives back at the Twins must be a tiny amount of stragglers or lost survivors who managed to make their way back to Roose's army. Similarly he purged his force of other Houses men as best he could, as follows:

He started off with around 6000 men, but a third were trapped on the wrong side of the Trident and slaughtered by Gregor Clegane. These included Norrey, Locke and Burley men (Mountain Clans) and the Manderly knights with Ser Wendel Manderly. And then he left 600 Ryswell, Mountain Clan, Manderly, Hornwood, Stout and Cerwyn men to guard the crossing.

So what remained was the 3500 men he arrived with at the Twins, mostly Dreadfort men, with the only noteworthy other group being some Karstarks, which, as was proven by the quotes above, are a very small number.

To come to the point, it would seem the vast bulk of the 3500 men were in fact Boltons, with a small number of Karstarks added to the mix. This fact is further bolstered by Theon's observation in Dance that the majority of the now 4000 men returning from the South were Dreadfort men.

In any case, now to get back to the original point, which is the 27.5% armored lancer ratio in the army at Winterfell. If only 2500 of the 3500 army with Roose were Dreadfort men, then 27.5% would give him just under 700 Bolton armored lancers. Considering that the Karstarks, Mountain Clans, and likely the Mormonts too brought far less than the 27.5% average, one would logically think that powerful Houses like the Boltons would have had to bring even more than the average ratio to bring the heavy cavalry ratio to its final number of 27.5%. But even if we just go with 27.5% for the Boltons, we already get to 700 quite reasonably. To that we would need to add whichever percentage of Ramsay's Dreadfort garrison were cavalry.

Theon describes them as follows, by the way:

By the time they reached the battlements, dead men and dying horses were strewn about the market square outside the gates. He saw no battle lines, only a swirling chaos of banners and blades. Shouts and screams rang through the cold autumn air. Ser Rodrik seemed to have the numbers, but the Dreadfort men were better led, and had taken the others unawares. Theon watched them charge and wheel and charge again, chopping the larger force to bloody pieces every time they tried to form up between the houses.

They are described as charging, wheeling and charging again as Ser Rodrik's soldiers tried to form up in defense. So there are no infantry described among Ramsay's men.

And again, here:

As the night grew darker and the smoke spread it was harder to make out what was happening below, but the din of steel gradually diminished to nothing, and the shouts and warhorns gave way to moans and piteous wailing. Finally a column of mounted men rode out of the drifting smoke. At their head was a knight in dark armor. His rounded helm gleamed a sullen red, and a pale pink cloak streamed from his shoulders. Outside the main gate he reined up, and one of his men shouted for the castle to open.

As we can see, only riders are described. Considering that they had to race to catch Ser Rodrik in time before he took the castle, I question how any infantry could have kept up with the cavalry in the last dash before the battle. In any case, not many cavalry are needed to take the Bolton cavalry numbers well beyond 1000, given the numbers we have above.

And Manderly has more than that, even now. Meaning he had significantly more before his losses in the South, his losses in Ser Rodrik's army, and his losses in the Hornwood lands (where Ser Rodrik says Manderly knights and Bolton men had been killing each other).

So 1500 is a very reasonable assessment for the Manderly number of heavy horse. And even at a cavalry to infantry ratio similar to that of the Reach, that would take his overall numbers to 6000 at least.

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4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Look, I get that you are trying to make a statement and all, but then you need to do your homework.

lol you are still guesstimating. GRRM has clearly stated who is the most power House in the following regions

  • Dorne
  • Reach
  • Riverlands
  • Vale

At no point has he revealed who is the strongest in the North. Until you can come up with a quote from the books or the author on this matter then any answer is nothing more than speculation.

 

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

stuff

 

I'm not sure what that has anything to do with what I asked.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So 1500 is a very reasonable assessment for the Manderly number of heavy horse.

How so?

How many heavy horse did Manderly send South with Robb?

How many heavy Horse did Manderly send to Bolton?

According to your estimates Wyman has around 1,000 Heavy horse that has never been seen or mentioned in five books (of a seven planned series). This seems pretty preposterous. 

Why does Roose, Lady Dustin or even the Northern raised Theon wander where this extra 1,000  heavy horse is? Why does Robb not request the help of these 1,000 heavy horse when he is rejected by the Knights of the Vale? Why could these 1,000 heavy horse not successfully beat the Boltons in the Hornwood lands?

It is nice that you believe in this, but there is no actual evidence in the books that there is a hidden 1k Manderly heavy horse sitting around doing nothing. 

 

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1 minute ago, Bernie Mac said:

lol you are still guesstimating. GRRM has clearly stated who is the most power House in the following regions

  • Dorne
  • Reach
  • Riverlands
  • Vale

At no point has he revealed who is the strongest in the North. Until you can come up with a quote from the books or the author on this matter then any answer is nothing more than speculation.

 

 

I'm not sure what that has anything to do with what I asked.

How so?

How many heavy horse did Manderly send South with Robb?

How many heavy Horse did Manderly send to Bolton?

According to your estimates Wyman has around 1,000 Heavy horse that has never been seen or mentioned in five books (of a seven planned series). This seems pretty preposterous. 

Why does Roose, Lady Dustin or even the Northern raised Theon wander where this extra 1,000  heavy horse is? Why does Robb not request the help of these 1,000 heavy horse when he is rejected by the Knights of the Vale? Why could these 1,000 heavy horse not successfully beat the Boltons in the Hornwood lands?

It is nice that you believe in this, but there is no actual evidence in the books that there is a hidden 1k Manderly heavy horse sitting around doing nothing. 

 

I was hoping for an actual argument from your side to counter the evidence as layed out. Sadly, all I got was "Martin has not stated it outright, so until then, we have no way of knowing".

And then you fall back on, well, how can Mandelry possibly have 1000 heavy horse left with no one wondering where they are.

Who says no one wonders where they are? Did you think the lords brought all their strength to Winterfell? Of course they did not. Lady Dustin sent the absolute minimum numbers of Dustin men with Robb, and yet she has a bare minimum in Winterfell. How do we know this? Because numbers at Winterfell are estimated to be from 6000-7000 by Theon for one. And yet Roose already brought 4000 Northmen and 1500 Freys from the South. That's 5500 men. Ramsay already had another 600 Dreadfort men. That brings the total to 6000 already. Add Manderly's 300, and Hother Whoresbane's 400, and you are already at 6700. Add a mere honor guard of 100 each for Lords Locke, Slate, the 4 Ryswells and Lady Dustin, and you already exceed 7000 men.

Clearly no one has brought their full strength to Winterfell. Instead they brought honor guards, to attend Ramsay's wedding.

And as for how many Lord Manderly has left. Well, he tells Davos he has more heavy cavalry than any other Northern lord. That would include Lady Dustin, who kept the bulk of her forces back. And it would include Roose Bolton, who brought at least 500 horse back North, and had multiple hundreds left with Ramsay. So Roose alone has close to 1000 left as we speak.

And Manderly outright confirms that he has more than that left. So no, the 300 he brought to Winterfell clearly is not his full strength. And no one believes it to be either.

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2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

There simply is no clear answer on the North's most powerful vassal. This is not like the Royces in the Vale, the Hightowers in the Reach, the Yronwoods in Dorne or even the Freys in the Riverlands. 

There simply has been no concusive evidence on who is the most powerful vassal in the North. None at all, which is surprising since we have spent so much time with Northern or Northern based character. 

We have no idea if that is true. You are welcome to show quotes from AGOT showing this, I'd love to read them, but there simply is no indication of who is the most powerful House in the North at the start of the series. 

We know, by ACOK, that the Manderlys are certainly the wealthiest, which means they are likely to be among the top (if not top) but beyond that there is no conclusive proof. 

What the start of the series does show us is that the Karstarks raise almost 1k more men than the Manderlys do for the war in the South. 

What it also describes is that at Moat Cailin it is the Starks, Umbers and Karstarks who control the three banners. 

 

One out of three is certainly true, the other two is just speculation. 

 

There are 5 cities in Westeros and Manderly controls one of them. They are by far the richest House in the North and have the biggest population. The reason they only sent 1500 troops to go with Robb is because they were supposed to defend White Harbour. In adwd Manderly says that he has the most heavy cavalry in all the North. They are also the only house with a fleet.

 

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2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I imagine for many soldiers having heavy cavalry is something of an unneeded luxury given that it is unusable for such long periods of time.  

This is nonsensical.  The "long periods of time" you're referring to, I assume, are winter?  The season where warfare does not traditionally occur?  Heavy cavalry are by no means unstoppable on their own- you'd need heavy and light infantry, archers, light cavalry, etc. to truly have a well-balanced force.  However, heavy cavalry are the most expensive type of unit to maintain, so why would any feudal lord in his right mind spend his funds on more expensive heavy cavalry if they were not proportionately more effective?  Common sense tells us that they function, at least, as an indication of military strength (I seem to recall Luwin specifically talking about how many cavalry were going south with Robb as a shorthand for measuring comparative military strength).  And I know some people refuse to believe that significant quantities of horses exist in the North, as we recently covered in another thread, so let's no rehash that one here...

Those saying that there's no explicitly stated second strongest house in the North are correct.  However, we can absolutely infer probable house strength based on a variety of factors.  FNR does a good job demonstrating the "more heavy cavalry" argument, and even if we assume they have a higher cav ratio than other Northern houses that still leaves the Manderlys near the top of the heap (if not the top) in army strength.  With regard to wealth and incomes, having one of the few cities on the entire continent, and a major port, can be assumed to provide them with significant wealth relative to other Northern houses.  Finally, we know for a fact that Wyman has "a dozen petty lord and a hundred landed knights." It can be assumed that the Boltons also have significant numbers of lords and knights below them in the feudal hierarchy, but we have no evidence to suggest they have more (specifically, the fact that Mandery uses those numbers as though they ought to impress Davos implies that they are higher than Davos may have assumed, or are greater than that of a typical lord of Manderly's standing).

So the available evidence suggest that Manderly is the second strongest house, but we cannot say that definitively.  If anyone genuinely believes it to be the Boltons, I'd love to see some text and numbers to support that position.  Consistently stating "nuh uh, I don't believe it, so my opinion is better" is a pretty poor foundation for any position.

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