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Why the ToJ showdown ever happened?


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7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Sorry, Ygrain, I should have made it clear I don't think it was the same person who did both. I think I said I think it likely that Ned learns of Lyanna's location after he leaves King's Landing. Someone among the loyalist forces at Storm's End? Perhaps Ashara, who we have been told is not nailed down in Starfall, or perhaps someone else who knows and wants to gain favor with the victorious rebels.

...or perhaps she was dispatched as a messenger :-)

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2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

...or perhaps she was dispatched as a messenger :-)

Indeed, that too is a possibility. Little here is certain, but I think the OP's point is important concerning how Robert's character would have him go to the Tower of Joy if he knew Lyanna was held there. I've long been persuaded neither Robert or Ned knew where Lyanna was until Ned leaves King's Landing. Then only Ned knows and he keeps it a closely held secret by traveling to the tower with only a select few of his closest bannermen. It tells me, Ned knew Lyanna left willingly. As I've said before, I think all the Stark brothers knew she did, and only Benjen sides with Lyanna. The source, I think, of Benjen's departure to the Night's Watch so soon after Ned returns to the north.

What is of interest to me is if Ned was as angry with Lyanna for that choice as it appears Brandon and Rickard might have been. Did Ned approve of his father's plans? Or did he just go along because his father and elder brother told him he had to do so? My guess is he believes it is Lyanna's duty to marry Robert, a man Ned loves far more than Lyanna does, and is angered by her choice. However, when confronted by his dying sister and her demand he take care of her child, he cannot refuse her. Ned becomes the Ned we know in that moment of choice. He certainly always loved his sister, but it is at Lyanna's deathbed that he has to make Aemon's choice between love and duty, and he chooses love.

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22 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Indeed, that too is a possibility. Little here is certain, but I think the OP's point is important concerning how Robert's character would have him go to the Tower of Joy if he knew Lyanna was held there. I've long been persuaded neither Robert or Ned knew where Lyanna was until Ned leaves King's Landing. Then only Ned knows and he keeps it a closely held secret by traveling to the tower with only a select few of his closest bannermen. It tells me, Ned knew Lyanna left willingly. As I've said before, I think all the Stark brothers knew she did, and only Benjen sides with Lyanna. The source, I think, of Benjen's departure to the Night's Watch so soon after Ned returns to the north.

What is of interest to me is if Ned was as angry with Lyanna for that choice as it appears Brandon and Rickard might have been. Did Ned approve of his father's plans? Or did he just go along because his father and elder brother told him he had to do so? My guess is he believes it is Lyanna's duty to marry Robert, a man Ned loves far more than Lyanna does, and is angered by her choice. However, when confronted by his dying sister and her demand he take care of her child, he cannot refuse her. Ned becomes the Ned we know in that moment of choice. He certainly always loved his sister, but it is at Lyanna's deathbed that he has to make Aemon's choice between love and duty, and he chooses love.

Amen :-)

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On 2/22/2017 at 2:22 PM, JonSnow4President said:

Agree to the first, but disagree with the second.  

The KG have no responsibility to the royal family, especially mere half-nephews of the king, unless that protection is extended to them through the order of the king.  Disregarding whatever came out of Lyanna, Viserys should be the King (since these 3 do not recognize Robert and are remaining loyal to the Targaryen dynasty).  At that point, they should make an effort to ensure that Viserys has KG protection (depending on how much latitude you expect the Secret Service to have, this may include leaving one there to see to Lyanna).  

But here's the key.  They don't do that.  They acknowledge that Viserys does not have KG protection, but insist that they are fulfilling their vows.  That might fly as following orders before Rhaegar's and Aerys' deaths, but once a new king is in place and those orders are defunct, it doesn't. Unless being at the tower is already fulfilling their oath to the new king, which cannot happen if the King is Viserys.

I have to disagree with you.  It is not protecting the royal family, if Rhaegar married Lyanna, then their son would be king.

Here is the sequence Rheagar is first born and heir, Viserys does not become king unless Rheagar and his sons are dead. The Mad King and Rheagar's son during the sack of KL, which leaves Lyanna's unborn child as the heir. 

The big question was why weren't they with Rheagar on the Trident, even with orders, I don't know why they left 3 KG there. 

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On 2/28/2017 at 0:28 PM, SFDanny said:

Indeed, that too is a possibility. Little here is certain, but I think the OP's point is important concerning how Robert's character would have him go to the Tower of Joy if he knew Lyanna was held there. I've long been persuaded neither Robert or Ned knew where Lyanna was until Ned leaves King's Landing. Then only Ned knows and he keeps it a closely held secret by traveling to the tower with only a select few of his closest bannermen. It tells me, Ned knew Lyanna left willingly. As I've said before, I think all the Stark brothers knew she did, and only Benjen sides with Lyanna. The source, I think, of Benjen's departure to the Night's Watch so soon after Ned returns to the north.

What is of interest to me is if Ned was as angry with Lyanna for that choice as it appears Brandon and Rickard might have been. Did Ned approve of his father's plans? Or did he just go along because his father and elder brother told him he had to do so? My guess is he believes it is Lyanna's duty to marry Robert, a man Ned loves far more than Lyanna does, and is angered by her choice. However, when confronted by his dying sister and her demand he take care of her child, he cannot refuse her. Ned becomes the Ned we know in that moment of choice. He certainly always loved his sister, but it is at Lyanna's deathbed that he has to make Aemon's choice between love and duty, and he chooses love.

Could be. But I got the impression that Benjen was interested in the Watch already at Harrenhal. 

Brandon was certainly upset, but I don't think he blamed Lyanna. I think he believed that Rhaegar seduced her and thus Rhaegar was to blame. And thanks to Brandon we have no idea what Rickard thought because Brandon's actions forced him to account for Brandon instead of dealing with the issue of his missing daughter. It was Rickard's place to go to King's Landing and try to get his daughter back. Brandon jumped the chain of command and ended up getting a whole bunch of people killed. That may even have been why Aerys demanded Ned's head...expecting him to be like Brandon.

Very possible, and very well stated! :cheers:

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2 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

I have to disagree with you.  It is not protecting the royal family, if Rhaegar married Lyanna, then their son would be king.

Here is the sequence Rheagar is first born and heir, Viserys does not become king unless Rheagar and his sons are dead. The Mad King and Rheagar's son during the sack of KL, which leaves Lyanna's unborn child as the heir. 

The big question was why weren't they with Rheagar on the Trident, even with orders, I don't know why they left 3 KG there. 

Rhaegar was hiding Lyanna in Dorne. That's the region controlled by his wife's family. If Oberyn had found out about it, those three might not have been enough.

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On ‎2‎/‎27‎/‎2017 at 10:19 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Now scratching my head wondering where we all got this info. Maybe an SSM? I'll have to do some looking and see if I can find anything.

While I agree that Barristan only knows what he was told, he's not the only one who mentions Ashara having a baby.

Cersei wonders whether Ashara is Jon's mother, which would make no sense unless she knew Ashara was pregnant, which she would have either known from the gossip after Harrenhal or heard from Jaime, because he was at court even after Tywin took Cersei back to Casterly Rock. Jaime would have been at court when Ashara was dismissed, though probably not in the room when she was told she had to leave.

I agree with your rule of thumb but I stand by my assessment that the only reason for GRRM to emphasize that she could leave Starfall during the war is if she was at Starfall during the war. It's possible that his statement combined with the pregnancy rumors had people guessing that she was dismissed, because obviously she was at Starfall during at least the latter part of the war, and was there when Ned showed up with Dawn.

Where do you stand on her alleged suicide?

 

Well, I think most of the gossip surrounding a pregnant Ashara was that Ned returned to Winterfell with Jon and the rumors started swirling that he was Ashara's. Barriston rejects this, however, stating that Ashara had a stillborn daughter from the Stark that dishonored her at Harrenhal, but it's almost certain he doesn't know this for a fact because he wasn't at Starfall in the closing days of the war, he was gravely wounded on the Trident.

As for her suicide, it could very well be true, but without a body it could easily have been faked, although for what purpose is unclear. I doubt she is Septa Lemore like many people claim, because Tyrion would certainly have noticed her purple eyes. But then again, there are always glamours,

But my point in all this is not to state definitively that Ned learned of Lyanna's whereabouts from Elia or Ashara. I also have a rule of thumb to never pursue a magical explanation for events that can be explained by natural means. So before we speculate that Howland Reed used greensight to track her down, we should exhaust all of the rational possibilities first.

So Rhaegar could very well have told Jaime where to find Lyanna, and this may have been the card he played in order to avoid the Night's Watch. Or Rhaegar could have told virtually anyone else in the Red Keep who then relayed it to Ned or Robert.

There is also the possibility that either Lord Manwoody of Kingsgrave, or Lord Caron of Nightsong, was with Mace at Storm's End and knew that there were three KG on their lands. The ToJ is closer to Kingsgrave, but we don't know who had ownership of it. Caron was sworn to Storm's End, while Manwoody answered to Sunspear, but neither is listed as either loyalist or rebel. Nightsong is pretty close to Highgarden and Horn Hall, however, so my money would be on him.

Or for all we know, it could have been common knowledge that the entire party was at the ToJ the whole time. 

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1 minute ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, I think most of the gossip surrounding a pregnant Ashara was that Ned returned to Winterfell with Jon and the rumors started swirling that he was Ashara's. Barriston rejects this, however, stating that Ashara had a stillborn daughter from the Stark that dishonored her at Harrenhal, but it's almost certain he doesn't know this for a fact because he wasn't at Starfall in the closing days of the war, he was gravely wounded on the Trident.

As for her suicide, it could very well be true, but without a body it could easily have been faked, although for what purpose is unclear. I doubt she is Septa Lemore like many people claim, because Tyrion would certainly have noticed her purple eyes. But then again, there are always glamours,

But my point in all this is not to state definitively that Ned learned of Lyanna's whereabouts from Elia or Ashara. I also have a rule of thumb to never pursue a magical explanation for events that can be explained by natural means. So before we speculate that Howland Reed used greensight to track her down, we should exhaust all of the rational possibilities first.

So Rhaegar could very well have told Jaime where to find Lyanna, and this may have been the card he played in order to avoid the Night's Watch. Or Rhaegar could have told virtually anyone else in the Red Keep who then relayed it to Ned or Robert.

There is also the possibility that either Lord Manwoody of Kingsgrave, or Lord Caron of Nightsong, was with Mace at Storm's End and knew that there were three KG on their lands. The ToJ is closer to Kingsgrave, but we don't know who had ownership of it. Caron was sworn to Storm's End, while Manwoody answered to Sunspear, but neither is listed as either loyalist or rebel. Nightsong is pretty close to Highgarden and Horn Hall, however, so my money would be on him.

Or for all we know, it could have been common knowledge that the entire party was at the ToJ the whole time. 

I figure the pregnancy rumors started with Harrenhal. Doesn't mean she got pregnant there, but whatever happened there damaged her reputation and it doesn't take much for gossip to go from damaged reputation to pregnant.

Barristan's thoughts are important here and he most definitely does not mention dishonor with whatever Stark he's talking about. I think that word missing means a lot. And I maintain that given his vows to the KG he would not have expected Ashara to "look to" him for anything romantic, but would have expected her to look to him for help if she found herself in a bad situation. If someone hurt her, for instance she was not a willing participant in whatever the dishonoring event was, she would want to go to someone powerful for help...particularly if her own eldest brother wasn't present. She wouldn't go to Arthur, because he might just kill the SOB who hurt his sister. She wouldn't go to Elia because she could get dismissed for the mere appearance of loose morals even if she did nothing wrong. Her options would be limited and if any Stark has been kind to her she might well go to one of them for help.

There are several possibilities for faking Ashara's death. A secret mission for House Targaryen. Something to do with the coming war against the Others/TDtwP. Marrying a man her family didn't approve of and said they'd rather have her dead.  

Not likely on the glamour. Tyrion sees Lemore naked and she's not wearing a ruby. No ruby = no glamour.

The castle closest to the ToJ is High Hermitage. The land on which ToJ stands is probably not owned by anyone, which in theory would make it Martell land, or would go with HH, which would make it Dayne land.

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9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Could be. But I got the impression that Benjen was interested in the Watch already at Harrenhal. 

Your impression is well grounded. We are told in Meera Reed's tale we know Benjen is present when a "black brother spoke, asking knights to join the Night's Watch."d We know of the long history of the Stark's relationship to the Night's Watch. So, it isn't a surprise Benjen would be drawn to serving at the Wall. What is surprising is when he leaves to do so. At Harrenhal, he is the youngest of four children who is likely to have little day-to-day responsibility serving his father or his eldest brother. He may be married off to a bannerman the Starks want to strengthen ties with, or he could be drawn to a life like the Night's Watch. After the rebellion he is Ned's only surviving sibling, and he leaves Winterfell for the Night's Watch when Ned has only the infant Robb as a possible successor. One would think Benjen's responsibility to help ensure the Stark line lives on might loom larger in his priorities than going to the Wall.

When we combine that with Martin's stubborn refusal to answer the question of why Benjen joined the Watch, I think we have reason to question what is going on here. To that I'd add the evidence of Bran's vision of Lyanna's swordplay with Benjen, which would tend to indicate a closeness between the two - at least to the extent Benjen doesn't run to his father and tell on Lyanna. And, also the indication in Meera's tale that it is Benjen who volunteers to help arm Howland. This may mean nothing, of course, but if one believes the KotLT is Lyanna, then it is likely someone helped her with her armor, and Benjen is the most likely candidate. 

This all makes me think that when Ned arrives back in Winterfell and tells Benjen of Lyanna's death, there may well have been some anger on Benjen's part about how the marriage contract between Lyanna and Robert forced Lyanna into desperate measures to get out of, and that led to her death. If I'm right that Ned at least thought it was Lyanna's duty to marry Robert, I can see all of this leading to Benjen leaving shortly after Ned returns. We don't know exactly Benjen's age when he does so, but he can't be much older than Jon and Robb are at the beginning of our story. It sounds like a response a teenage boy might make when his dearest sister and friend dies. Or so my guess goes.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Brandon was certainly upset, but I don't think he blamed Lyanna. I think he believed that Rhaegar seduced her and thus Rhaegar was to blame. And thanks to Brandon we have no idea what Rickard thought because Brandon's actions forced him to account for Brandon instead of dealing with the issue of his missing daughter. It was Rickard's place to go to King's Landing and try to get his daughter back. Brandon jumped the chain of command and ended up getting a whole bunch of people killed. That may even have been why Aerys demanded Ned's head...expecting him to be like Brandon.

Very possible, and very well stated! :cheers:

First, thank you for the kind words.

My own views are heavily colored by my beliefs about Rickard's "southron ambitions." I think Rickard has used his children to forge very unusual alliances with other High Lords in the attempt to build a power bloc in opposition to the Targaryens. I think Brandon understands he has to marry whomever his father tells him and, while he isn't happy about it, he understands what he has to do and why. Yet his sister balks at doing her duty and objects to Robert's character. She also may well have been attracted to Rhaegar following the events at Harrenhal. As I said, I think all the Stark brother see this, and report it back to Rickard. So, when Brandon rides into the Red Keep calling for Rhaegar to "come out and die" it isn't a wonder that we hear nothing about surrendering his kidnapped sister. Brandon knows her wishes and knows Lyanna is refusing to do her duty to her family. So, I believe, it likely he is as angry towards his sister as he is to the Crown Prince. The prerogatives of the High Lords and their right to have their marriage contracts respected are being questioned not only by the Targaryens, but by his little sister. Or so I see it.

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22 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I figure the pregnancy rumors started with Harrenhal. Doesn't mean she got pregnant there, but whatever happened there damaged her reputation and it doesn't take much for gossip to go from damaged reputation to pregnant.

Barristan's thoughts are important here and he most definitely does not mention dishonor with whatever Stark he's talking about. I think that word missing means a lot. And I maintain that given his vows to the KG he would not have expected Ashara to "look to" him for anything romantic, but would have expected her to look to him for help if she found herself in a bad situation. If someone hurt her, for instance she was not a willing participant in whatever the dishonoring event was, she would want to go to someone powerful for help...particularly if her own eldest brother wasn't present. She wouldn't go to Arthur, because he might just kill the SOB who hurt his sister. She wouldn't go to Elia because she could get dismissed for the mere appearance of loose morals even if she did nothing wrong. Her options would be limited and if any Stark has been kind to her she might well go to one of them for help.

There are several possibilities for faking Ashara's death. A secret mission for House Targaryen. Something to do with the coming war against the Others/TDtwP. Marrying a man her family didn't approve of and said they'd rather have her dead.  

Not likely on the glamour. Tyrion sees Lemore naked and she's not wearing a ruby. No ruby = no glamour.

The castle closest to the ToJ is High Hermitage. The land on which ToJ stands is probably not owned by anyone, which in theory would make it Martell land, or would go with HH, which would make it Dayne land.

He does say she was dishonored, but not necessarily by a Stark:

Quote

But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

So there are a couple of ways to read this. The stillborn daughter need not have necessarily been conceived at HH, nor even by the man who dishonored her. That reference could be nothing more than Rhaegar not choosing Ashara as QoLaB.

If she was involved in some hanky panky at HH, it's unlikely that it would immediately be known to the entire court, unless the guy who did it, say Aerys, then publicly shamed and banished her -- but that would most certainly have been mentioned in all the accounts of the tourney that we've seen.

High Hermitage? Not on the maps in my books. HH is way down the Torentine, deep in the Red Mountains, about 50 leagues north of Starfall and about 150 leagues from the ToJ through rough, mountainous terrain. Kingsgrave is only about 20 leagues south of the ToJ, right down the Prince's Pass, while Nightsong is about 50 leagues north in the flat lands of the Reach. All lands are claimed by some lord or another, especially one with a watchtower guarding the only way in and out of the western side of Dorne.

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16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

<snip

First, thank you for the kind words.

My own views are heavily colored by my beliefs about Rickard's "southron ambitions." I think Rickard has used his children to forge very unusual alliances with other High Lords in the attempt to build a power bloc in opposition to the Targaryens. I think Brandon understands he has to marry whomever his father tells him and, while he isn't happy about it, he understands what he has to do and why. Yet his sister balks at doing her duty and objects to Robert's character. She also may well have been attracted to Rhaegar following the events at Harrenhal. As I said, I think all the Stark brother see this, and report it back to Rickard. So, when Brandon rides into the Red Keep calling for Rhaegar to "come out and die" it isn't a wonder that we hear nothing about surrendering his kidnapped sister. Brandon knows her wishes and knows Lyanna is refusing to do her duty to her family. So, I believe, it likely he is as angry towards his sister as he is to the Crown Prince. The prerogatives of the High Lords and their right to have their marriage contracts respected are being questioned not only by the Targaryens, but by his little sister. Or so I see it.

I'm okay with the Southron Ambitions idea. But I find it odd that Rickard didn't have a marriage lined up for Ned. I could see not doing anything specific for Benjen (third son, could become a maester, a knight, take the black, etc), but Ned should have had a betrothed.

I can see your point, and you may be right. But I did want to mention that in a feudal society the king was expected to approve marriages between the high power families in the realm. That doesn't give Rhaegar any right to interfere of course, but Aerys at least did have some right to question the contracts.

It's very possible that a few of his Lords Paramount suddenly intermarrying their families was what got Aerys worried that they might be plotting against him (I mean aside from his paranoia). The Starks rarely marry outside of the North and yet Rickard has managed Hoster Tully's eldest daughter for Brandon, and promised his daughter to the head of House Baratheon, which could be said to potentially feed back into House Targaryen. Then Hoster's got the Cat and Brandon match (which seen in light of Lyanna and Robert could look more advantageous than usual) and is trying to get Tywin's golden boy for Lysa. That's a lot of power coupling in the great houses. Consolidate Stark, Tully, Baratheon, and Lannister, and anything they decide to do is pretty much a given. Ned could add another region by marrying someone from the Vale, the Reach, Dorne, even the Iron Islands if they had someone suitable. Ned's marriage could make it five of the eight regions allied to each other. They could take over and run everything if they could keep on good terms.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

He does say she was dishonored, but not necessarily by a Stark:

So there are a couple of ways to read this. The stillborn daughter need not have necessarily been conceived at HH, nor even by the man who dishonored her. That reference could be nothing more than Rhaegar not choosing Ashara as QoLaB.

If she was involved in some hanky panky at HH, it's unlikely that it would immediately be known to the entire court, unless the guy who did it, say Aerys, then publicly shamed and banished her -- but that would most certainly have been mentioned in all the accounts of the tourney that we've seen.

High Hermitage? Not on the maps in my books. HH is way down the Torentine, deep in the Red Mountains, about 50 leagues north of Starfall and about 150 leagues from the ToJ through rough, mountainous terrain. Kingsgrave is only about 20 leagues south of the ToJ, right down the Prince's Pass, while Nightsong is about 50 leagues north in the flat lands of the Reach. All lands are claimed by some lord or another, especially one with a watchtower guarding the only way in and out of the western side of Dorne.

Yes, that's what I meant. He doesn't say that a Stark dishonored her.

Not choosing someone as QoLaB would not dishonor her. Something happened, even if it was just getting caught making out with a guy...maybe someone else's betrothed...that damaged her reputation. Word may not have gotten out right away, but when it did get out, undoubtedly Cersei and others in her circle would have heard about it.

Agreed on the rest, including HH. I was reading the maps wrong. But HH is closer to ToJ than Starfall is, and I could absolutely see somebody sending messages through House Dayne.

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18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

This all makes me think that when Ned arrives back in Winterfell and tells Benjen of Lyanna's death, there may well have been some anger on Benjen's part about how the marriage contract between Lyanna and Robert forced Lyanna into desperate measures to get out of, and that led to her death. If I'm right that Ned at least thought it was Lyanna's duty to marry Robert, I can see all of this leading to Benjen leaving shortly after Ned returns. We don't know exactly Benjen's age when he does so, but he can't be much older than Jon and Robb are at the beginning of our story. It sounds like a response a teenage boy might make when his dearest sister and friend dies. Or so my guess goes.

It's all plausible, but I'm not sold on the idea that Benjen took the black out of anger.
There's also the possibility that Benjen had a small measure of responsibility in what happened. He may have known about Lyanna and Rhaegar meeting in secret at HH for example, or something similar. He could have blamed himself for not telling his father or his brothers what he knew about their developing relationship. In other words, while Ned and Benjen at least may have both known that Lyanna was not enthusiastic about her arranged marriage with Robert, Benjen may have known something that Ned didn't, which would explain why Benjen took the black. Not out of anger, but out of shame.
Small difference in the greater picture though.

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6 hours ago, Rippounet said:

It's all plausible, but I'm not sold on the idea that Benjen took the black out of anger.

To be clear, I think the timing of when Benjen takes the black is out of anger towards his brothers and his father over trying to force Lyanna into a marriage she didn't want. Benjen may well have wanted to join the Night's Watch from well before Harrenhal, but it's his becoming a black brother when the family tree is down to Ned, Benjen, and about a one-year-old Robb that I find suspicious. One would think Benjen would put his responsibility to produce heirs for House Stark before his desire to join the Night's Watch. If he joins after Rickon was born, there is nothing suspicious about his reasons.

Add to that the refusal of Martin to say why Benjen joined the Night's Watch and you have a mystery.

6 hours ago, Rippounet said:

It's all plausible, but I'm not sold on the idea that Benjen took the black out of anger.
There's also the possibility that Benjen had a small measure of responsibility in what happened. He may have known about Lyanna and Rhaegar meeting in secret at HH for example, or something similar. He could have blamed himself for not telling his father or his brothers what he knew about their developing relationship. In other words, while Ned and Benjen at least may have both known that Lyanna was not enthusiastic about her arranged marriage with Robert, Benjen may have known something that Ned didn't, which would explain why Benjen took the black. Not out of anger, but out of shame.
Small difference in the greater picture though.

Could be a mixture of both. I like the thought, but it's hard for me to believe the two older brothers see nothing of what is going on with Lyanna at Harrenhal. In addition we know from Ned that Lyanna told him of her reservations about Robert. Given what we know of Lyanna I find it hard to believe she limited telling those objections to Ned. The Lyanna I read probably told her father she wouldn't marry Robert, told Brandon to keep out of her business when he told her she had to do what Father said, politely told Ned his best friend was an ass, and complained like hell to her little brother when Dad, Brandon, and Ned, all told her it was her duty to marry the prick - whatever her objections. 

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8 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I'm okay with the Southron Ambitions idea. But I find it odd that Rickard didn't have a marriage lined up for Ned. I could see not doing anything specific for Benjen (third son, could become a maester, a knight, take the black, etc), but Ned should have had a betrothed.

If Southron Ambitions means what I think it does, then it may well be there are plans for Ned, but they haven't been all lined up yet. It looks to me like the STAB bloc is trying to get the Lannisters to join them and are on the verge of doing so when Aerys blows up the marriage between Jaime and Lysa. The next step could well be a marriage between Elbert and Cersei, and if, for some reason Tywin didn't want that, to offer either Ned or Stannis as an alternative (assuming the marriage of Stannis to Selyse isn't already planned.) With the Tyrell children too young, it could well be Ned and Stannis, as well as the young Benjen and Edmure, are planned for other families in the Reach - Hightowers, perhaps? They already tried with the Blackfish and Bethany Redwyne, only to have him refuse. The only great households I would rule out are the Martells and their bannermen. They are committed to seeing Aegon on the throne.

8 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I can see your point, and you may be right. But I did want to mention that in a feudal society the king was expected to approve marriages between the high power families in the realm. That doesn't give Rhaegar any right to interfere of course, but Aerys at least did have some right to question the contracts.

Does he? I think the High Lords of the realm would differ on that point. After the conquest, the Targaryens try to force marriages between the Great Houses to begin building a united Westeros, but the Starks, at least, object like all hell to being forced to do so. The Baratheons go so far as to declare themselves a independent country once again when the Targaryens negate a marriage to them they have agreed to. It doesn't sound to me like in Westeros it is a settled fact of what rights the High Lords have in making marriage alliances and how much the Targaryens can intervene - especially after the death of the dragons.

I think it is instructive that instead of just issuing a royal decree stopping Lysa and Jaime from marrying, Aerys finds away to stop it by "honoring" Jaime with his appointment to the Kingsguard. I also think it is interesting that instead of just telling Robert and Lyanna that he would stop their marriage, Rhaegar shows his interest in doing so by "honoring" Lyanna as his Queen of Love and Beauty.

8 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

It's very possible that a few of his Lords Paramount suddenly intermarrying their families was what got Aerys worried that they might be plotting against him (I mean aside from his paranoia). The Starks rarely marry outside of the North and yet Rickard has managed Hoster Tully's eldest daughter for Brandon, and promised his daughter to the head of House Baratheon, which could be said to potentially feed back into House Targaryen. Then Hoster's got the Cat and Brandon match (which seen in light of Lyanna and Robert could look more advantageous than usual) and is trying to get Tywin's golden boy for Lysa. That's a lot of power coupling in the great houses. Consolidate Stark, Tully, Baratheon, and Lannister, and anything they decide to do is pretty much a given. Ned could add another region by marrying someone from the Vale, the Reach, Dorne, even the Iron Islands if they had someone suitable. Ned's marriage could make it five of the eight regions allied to each other. They could take over and run everything if they could keep on good terms.

Very much agree with this. I've been pushing this idea for some time now

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16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

If Southron Ambitions means what I think it does, then it may well be there are plans for Ned, but they haven't been all lined up yet. It looks to me like the STAB bloc is trying to get the Lannisters to join them and are on the verge of doing so when Aerys blows up the marriage between Jaime and Lysa. The next step could well be a marriage between Elbert and Cersei, and if, for some reason Tywin didn't want that, to offer either Ned or Stannis as an alternative (assuming the marriage of Stannis to Selyse isn't already planned.) With the Tyrell children too young, it could well be Ned and Stannis, as well as the young Benjen and Edmure, are planned for other families in the Reach - Hightowers, perhaps? They already tried with the Blackfish and Bethany Redwyne, only to have him refuse. The only great households I would rule out are the Martells and their bannermen. They are committed to seeing Aegon on the throne.

Does he? I think the High Lords of the realm would differ on that point. After the conquest, the Targaryens try to force marriages between the Great Houses to begin building a united Westeros, but the Starks, at least, object like all hell to being forced to do so. The Baratheons go so far as to declare themselves a independent country once again when the Targaryens negate a marriage to them they have agreed to. It doesn't sound to me like in Westeros it is a settled fact of what rights the High Lords have in making marriage alliances and how much the Targaryens can intervene - especially after the death of the dragons.

I think it is instructive that instead of just issuing a royal decree stopping Lysa and Jaime from marrying, Aerys finds away to stop it by "honoring" Jaime with his appointment to the Kingsguard. I also think it is interesting that instead of just telling Robert and Lyanna that he would stop their marriage, Rhaegar shows his interest in doing so by "honoring" Lyanna as his Queen of Love and Beauty.

<snip

Cat and Brandon's betrothal has been settled for five years. Not sure how long Lyanna and Robert's has been. But it seems to me that Rickard had plenty of time to find someone for Ned. Maybe there were negotiations going on, but as Ned was legally an adult I would think his father would keep him in the loop. Or perhaps he was thinking maybe Jon Arryn would name Ned his heir and Ned would marry into one of the Vale houses.

Elbert? I don't remember an Elbert. Tywin was set on Cersei being queen, and if the STAB power base was hoping to get Aerys off the throne it's possible that they were going to put Rhaegar on it and Tywin would perhaps have suggested to Rhaegar that he needed another wife--with permission from the High Septon of course--so that he could get an heir to go with his spare. Tywin would of course have emphasized that Aegon would of course be Rhaegar's heir and any children with Cersei would come after him...probably while plotting to get Aegon out of the way after a few years when everyone stopped watching for him to pull something.

That's the thing. In the usual case, the king had the right of approval and no match went forward without it. It was probably pretty rare that the king refused consent. But I don't know if the kings in ASOIAF had the same power. Was just pointing it out for historical context. Since the betrothals all went through, I would imagine that if Aerys did have the option of short-circuiting the matches he definitely was not using it. He's already paranoid and afraid they want to depose him so it make sense that someone would advise him not to openly oppose any of the betrothals but do things like put Jaime in the KG. Wouldn't it be interesting if we found out Rhaegar was ordered to abscond with Lyanna to interfere with the anti-Aerys league, and fell in love with her while keeping her under guard a safe distance from his father?

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2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Elbert? I don't remember an Elbert. 

Elbert Arryn was Jon Arryn's nephew and heir. He also was evidently so close to Brandon Stark he rode with him into the Red Keep when Brandon demanded Rhaegar "come out and die." Stefan Stasse has suggested he may have been fostered in the North with Brandon when Ned goes to the Vale. I agree, and think it likely.

As the heir to the Vale he would have been the perfect choice to marry Cersei and cement the Lannister relationship to the STAB bloc.

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4 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Elbert Arryn was Jon Arryn's nephew and heir. He also was evidently so close to Brandon Stark he rode with him into the Red Keep when Brandon demanded Rhaegar "come out and die." Stefan Stasse has suggested he may have been fostered in the North with Brandon when Ned goes to the Vale. I agree, and think it likely.

As the heir to the Vale he would have been the perfect choice to marry Cersei and cement the Lannister relationship to the STAB bloc.

Ah, that's why I forgot about him. A follower rather than a leader, and not enough influence over Brandon to talk him out of being stupid (or even sense to try). He could have gone home.

If Elbert was fostered in the North we might be hearing about it from Lady Dustin in TWOW because Brandon was fostered with her father.

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34 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Ah, that's why I forgot about him. A follower rather than a leader, and not enough influence over Brandon to talk him out of being stupid (or even sense to try). He could have gone home.

To be fair we don't know if Elbert tried to talked Brandon and the others out of their action. But I agree it certainly looks like Brandon was the leader in his party.

36 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

If Elbert was fostered in the North we might be hearing about it from Lady Dustin in TWOW because Brandon was fostered with her father.

That is my hope as well. In addition, Howland rode with Brandon's squire, Ethan Glover, from King's Landing to Storm's End and on to the Tower of Joy. He might know something from Glover about Brandon's party and why they did what they did.

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8 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

To be fair we don't know if Elbert tried to talked Brandon and the others out of their action. But I agree it certainly looks like Brandon was the leader in his party.

That is my hope as well. In addition, Howland rode with Brandon's squire, Ethan Glover, from King's Landing to Storm's End and on to the Tower of Joy. He might know something from Glover about Brandon's party and why they did what they did.

If he didn't he's as bad as the rest. Like I said, he could have gone home. Shame all of them died when so far as we know only Brandon was shouting treason.

Howland becomes more important!

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On 24/02/2017 at 9:08 AM, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Did you figure out r+l=j yourself without clues and 40 milion people spamming it

I DID! I was bummed when my mum told me it was a theory and and she had seen it on the internet.. lol.... :P

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