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Lannister Gains in Roberts Rebellion


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This might be a simple answer but I haven't been able to find it.

What did Tywin expect out of his siding with Robert during the rebellion? I know some hoped he would take the throne but he never actually fought for it. While Lyanna was alive I think it was expected that Robert would marry her, so Cersei as queen would have been a long shot at the time he committed. My understanding of the situation just before the sack of KL was that the Lannisters could sway the war in either direction. Was it already a done deal and Tywin just wanted some credit from the winner?

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Tywin actually said why:  He was Hand to the deposed king, and arrived late to the cause.  He had to demonstrate his loyalty/fealty to Robert.  It wasn't about land, titles, or plunder, it was about not being cast aside by the new monarch and living in the shadow of a Baratheon/Tully/Arryn/Stark regime.  There were going to be winners, and there were going to be losers.  The losers (with the exception of the Tyrells) were bound to Aerys by blood, which House Lannister (hilariously, given the rejection of Cersei) was not.

At some point, you're either in or you're out.  Twyin wanted in.

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2 minutes ago, LindsayLohan said:

Tywin actually said why:  He was Hand to the deposed king, and arrived late to the cause.  He had to demonstrate his loyalty/fealty to Robert.  It wasn't about land, titles, or plunder, it was about not being cast aside by the new monarch and living in the shadow of a Baratheon/Tully/Arryn/Stark regime.  There were going to be winners, and there were going to be losers.  The losers (with the exception of the Tyrells) were bound to Aerys by blood, which House Lannister (hilariously, given the rejection of Cersei) was not.

At some point, you're either in or you're out.  Twyin wanted in.

This basically. Tywin waited to be sure he was on the winning side.

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I don't think there is a simple answer, actually. You need to do a lot of work to puzzle out what was going on.

It is not clear from the text what Tywin hoped to achieve. He himself claims the war was done after the Trident. All he hoped to achieve was to endear himself to the winner (Robert) and prove he would never side with the Targaryens again. However, you don't need to bloody your hands like Tywin did to ensure your safety, or prove your loyalty. Nothing happened to Dorne or the Reach after the war and they fought on the other side.

Moreover, Jon Arryn explained the Cersei match to Robert in a way that conflicts with Tywin's words to Tyrion. Arryn claimed the marriage between Robert and Cersei was necessary to bind the Lannisters to Robert should the Targaryens return. Yet Tywin claimed that the murders alone proved that he would never support the Targaryens again. If Arryn was telling the truth, Tywin actually weakened his chances of getting a royal match by pulling the sack and the murders. Odd.

To consider also. Every other occasion where we hear about a new alliance there have always been prior guarantees worked out in advance. Hoster Tully demanded Ned and Jon marry Cat and Lysa before he went to war with them. Frey got Cat to promise him Robb for one of his daughters before he would let the Starks use his bridge. The Tyrells demanded Joff's hand for Marge before they committed to help the Lannisters. Tywin is the only great lord we see commit fully to one side without any guarantee or reward before hand. Odd.

My explanation. People knew, during the war, that Lyanna was not going to marry Robert. Enough was known about the circumstances of her abduction for the marriage to be ruled out. Jon Arryn thus promised Tywin Cersei could marry Robert in return for his support for the new dynasty and the death of the Targaryen heirs. Tywin carried out his part of the deal when he sacked KL and had Elia and her children put to death. Jon kept this secret from Ned and Robert for a variety of (easily discernible) reasons.

 

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13 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I don't think there is a simple answer, actually. You need to do a lot of work to puzzle out what was going on.

It is not clear from the text what Tywin hoped to achieve. He himself claims the war was done after the Trident. All he hoped to achieve was to endear himself to the winner (Robert) and prove he would never side with the Targaryens again. However, you don't need to bloody your hands like Tywin did to ensure your safety, or prove your loyalty. Nothing happened to Dorne or the Reach after the war and they fought on the other side.

Moreover, Jon Arryn explained the Cersei match to Robert in a way that conflicts with Tywin's words to Tyrion. Arryn claimed the marriage between Robert and Cersei was necessary to bind the Lannisters to Robert should the Targaryens return. Yet Tywin claimed that the murders alone proved that he would never support the Targaryens again. If Arryn was telling the truth, Tywin actually weakened his chances of getting a royal match by pulling the sack and the murders. Odd.

To consider also. Every other occasion where we hear about a new alliance there have always been prior guarantees worked out in advance. Hoster Tully demanded Ned and Jon marry Cat and Lysa before he went to war with them. Frey got Cat to promise him Robb for one of his daughters before he would let the Starks use his bridge. The Tyrells demanded Joff's hand for Marge before they committed to help the Lannisters. Tywin is the only great lord we see commit fully to one side without any guarantee or reward before hand. Odd.

My explanation. People knew, during the war, that Lyanna was not going to marry Robert. Enough was known about the circumstances of her abduction for the marriage to be ruled out. Jon Arryn thus promised Tywin Cersei could marry Robert in return for his support for the new dynasty and the death of the Targaryen heirs. Tywin carried out his part of the deal when he sacked KL and had Elia and her children put to death. Jon kept this secret from Ned and Robert for a variety of (easily discernible) reasons.

 

I like your breakdown, but I am not certain of the conclusion that Robert was never going to marry Lyanna bc of the abduction. What holds me back is that if it were the case you would expect Tully to have pushed for marriage with Ned and Robert to his daughters. Which I think GoT Robert would have accepted if he no longer wanted Lyanna. Would have made he and Ned brothers. And Jon could have found a more suitable wife (age wise, he really could have had just about anyone he wanted).

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15 minutes ago, The Bastards Giant Friend said:

I like your breakdown, but I am not certain of the conclusion that Robert was never going to marry Lyanna bc of the abduction. What holds me back is that if it were the case you would expect Tully to have pushed for marriage with Ned and Robert to his daughters. Which I think GoT Robert would have accepted if he no longer wanted Lyanna. Would have made he and Ned brothers. And Jon could have found a more suitable wife (age wise, he really could have had just about anyone he wanted).

So your question is why did Hoster not push for Cat or Lysa to marry Robert so he could be the father of a Queen?

Well, we don't know what Hoster knew, or when he knew it. Maybe he didn't know Robert and Lyanna could not get married. Maybe only Ned knew, and he later told Jon. 

Another explanation is that Jon Arryn just preferred not to marry Robert to a Tully. He could get that alliance for a cheaper price than a Queenship. I think there were issues with Lysa too, because of the affair with Littlefinger.

Finally, I think Robert did not know the marriage was off, although he might have suspected. I think Jon knew during the war but persuaded Robert to marry Cersei after the war, having already arranged things with Tywin during the war. So Tywin and Jon were gambling on Jon getting Robert to honour their private deal.  

 

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Once the royalist army was defeated, Tywin knew the capital would fall and the Targ dynasty would end, so he had to get to KL first and get inside the city without bloodying has own army too badly -- since that is really the only thing that can give him any influence at all in crafting the new regime.

He might have had an idea that once Robert got a look at Cersei he would forget all about Lyanna, who as noted above was despoiled by this time. But at the very least Cersei would have married Stannis, who was likely to get Storm's End at this point, which would still have been a pretty good plum in Tywin's empire-building plans.

As it turned out, though, he got a grandson on the Iron Throne, another one as next in line for Storm's End, and then following the war of 5k, added the Riverlands and was on the verge of seeing a blood tie to the North via Tyrion and Sansa. So all in all, if he had lived Tywin would have been the most powerful lord in the kingdom by far -- easily out-classing the Gardner/Tyrell dynasty that held the title of hegemon for thousands of years before that. I don't think a whole lot of readers appreciate the dramatic power shift that had just taken place in Westeros, and how quickly it's all coming apart.

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