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The trial is over?


The Fresh PtwP

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Do we have enough info to deduce the results of the trial? I believe so.

Quote
… we must destroy Connington and his pretender now, before Daenerys Stormborn can come west."
Mace Tyrell crossed his arms. "I mean to do just that, ser. After the trials." -ADwD Epilogue

So Mace isn't moving until after the trial. But wait:

Spoiler

“Whoever’s son he is, if Connington challenges Mace Tyrell in open battle he may soon be a captive, or a corpse.”

"Daemon Sand went to one knee. “Send me to Storm’s End in your stead. Then if the griffin’s plans should go awry and Mace Tyrell takes the castle back..." -Arianne II TWoW

It seems that the trial is over, and since Mace is still working for the crown we can assume Margaery made it out with her head. Otherwise Mace would still be loitering in KL or worse, turn it into a bloodbath as Kevan worries about.

Now for Cersei:

Spoiler

“How long do you think we’ll be here?”

“Longer than you’d like,” the old man replied. “If he goes back without the gold the queen will have his head." -Mercy TWoW

Not Kevan the queen. Also remember Harys Swyft was still in KL during the Dance epilogue

Quote

Ser Harys Swyft tugged at his chin beard. "I am in need of guards myself. These are perilous times."

...

"Hire the Mountain's men," Ser Kevan suggested." -ADwD Epilogue

So in conclusion, the trial is over and both Marge and Cersei got off...Or (more interestingly) perhaps the High Sparrow has become a non entity. Thoughts?

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Well, we can't exactly make any assumptions yet. First off, the observations you're making are from the perspective that we're finished with The Winds of Winter and the issue of Cersei and Maergery were never addressed or visited again in the book. From that perspective, there aren't many points of evidence in order to deduct one result or the other. The only sound piece of evidence we have that the trial will eventually come to a resolve is the quote you provided where a "Queen" is referenced. Given the ruthlessness in the excerpt provided, it sounds more attuned to something Cersei would say or have commanded. So with that implication, we can assume that what happened in the show may transpire in the books as well, possibly an alternate iteration of it, or something of extremely similar stature. As for the other excerpt you provided from The Winds of Winter, I don't think it entirely suggests that Mace Tyrell would be leaving King's Landing. If anything, the excerpt provided suggests that someone would be going to Storm's End in his stead, in order for him to remain in King's Landing during the trial. Also, given that this is only the second POV chapter for Arienne, so it must still be relatively early in the book. 

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I don't think the trial has taken place. I could see Mace wrangling a promise from the High Sparrow to wait on the trial...

Spoiler

...until he gets back from Braavos. 

Remember the chapters aren't always in chronological order. And it's possible that JonCon has worked things so that the taking of Storm's End has been kept pretty quiet. Eventually it would leak out, but would Cersei even care? She should, to maintain the ruse of her children being Baratheons, but this is Cersei we're talking about.

You'd think if the trials were over and Margaery came through all right, Mace would be dealing with the little Targ pretender in the Storm Lands, unless you think he delegated that task to Randyll Tarly.

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17 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I don't think the trial has taken place. I could see Mace wrangling a promise from the High Sparrow to wait on the trial...

  Hide contents

...until he gets back from Braavos. 

Remember the chapters aren't always in chronological order. And it's possible that JonCon has worked things so that the taking of Storm's End has been kept pretty quiet. Eventually it would leak out, but would Cersei even care? She should, to maintain the ruse of her children being Baratheons, but this is Cersei we're talking about.

You'd think if the trials were over and Margaery came through all right, Mace would be dealing with the little Targ pretender in the Storm Lands, unless you think he delegated that task to Randyll Tarly.

:agree: And the bold! :lol:

 

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The Arianne 1 chapter of winds of winter should happen before Kevans death (Redwine fleet has just passed the stepstones) and Arianne 2 at about the same time. I certainly don't see how the trials can have been conducted in that space of time. It is entirely possible that Daemon Sand simply assumed that Mace Tyrell was still leading the siege of Storms End and hadn't at that time returned to the capital.

The Mercy chapter is a lot harder to place. My guess is that Cersei has either had her trial (by combat?) or simply assumed power after Kevan's death, possibly with the indirect aid of Varys.

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45 minutes ago, Jango said:

Well, we can't exactly make any assumptions yet. First off, the observations you're making are from the perspective that we're finished with The Winds of Winter and the issue of Cersei and Maergery were never addressed or visited again in the book. From that perspective, there aren't many points of evidence in order to deduct one result or the other. The only sound piece of evidence we have that the trial will eventually come to a resolve is the quote you provided where a "Queen" is referenced. Given the ruthlessness in the excerpt provided, it sounds more attuned to something Cersei would say or have commanded. So with that implication, we can assume that what happened in the show may transpire in the books as well, possibly an alternate iteration of it, or something of extremely similar stature. As for the other excerpt you provided from The Winds of Winter, I don't think it entirely suggests that Mace Tyrell would be leaving King's Landing. If anything, the excerpt provided suggests that someone would be going to Storm's End in his stead, in order for him to remain in King's Landing during the trial. Also, given that this is only the second POV chapter for Arienne, so it must still be relatively early in the book. 

How so? 

39 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I don't think the trial has taken place. I could see Mace wrangling a promise from the High Sparrow to wait on the trial...

  Reveal hidden contents

...until he gets back from Braavos. 

Remember the chapters aren't always in chronological order. And it's possible that JonCon has worked things so that the taking of Storm's End has been kept pretty quiet. Eventually it would leak out, but would Cersei even care? She should, to maintain the ruse of her children being Baratheons, but this is Cersei we're talking about.

You'd think if the trials were over and Margaery came through all right, Mace would be dealing with the little Targ pretender in the Storm Lands, unless you think he delegated that task to Randyll Tarly.

Braavos?? Daemon Sand seems pretty sure who is coming down on SE...

I think Cersei would care. She freaked out about a small garrison at Dragonstone, Storm's End is too close to not activate her paranoia mode.

Also I'm unsure about how quite JonCon is going to keep the taking of Storm's End. Small castles, yes, but the whole point of SE was to establish a base, and for people to take them seriously.

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4 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

Do we have enough info to deduce the results of the trial? I believe so.

So Mace isn't moving until after the trial. But wait:

  Hide contents

“Whoever’s son he is, if Connington challenges Mace Tyrell in open battle he may soon be a captive, or a corpse.”

"Daemon Sand went to one knee. “Send me to Storm’s End in your stead. Then if the griffin’s plans should go awry and Mace Tyrell takes the castle back..." -Arianne II TWoW

It seems that the trial is over, and since Mace is still working for the crown we can assume Margaery made it out with her head. Otherwise Mace would still be loitering in KL or worse, turn it into a bloodbath as Kevan worries about.

Now for Cersei:

  Reveal hidden contents

“How long do you think we’ll be here?”

“Longer than you’d like,” the old man replied. “If he goes back without the gold the queen will have his head." -Mercy TWoW

Not Kevan the queen. Also remember Harys Swyft was still in KL during the Dance epilogue

So in conclusion, the trial is over and both Marge and Cersei got off...Or (more interestingly) perhaps the High Sparrow has become a non entity. Thoughts?

Spoiler

In the Mercy chapter, it is strongly hinted that cersei is in power

 

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1 hour ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

How so? 

Braavos?? Daemon Sand seems pretty sure who is coming down on SE...

I think Cersei would care. She freaked out about a small garrison at Dragonstone, Storm's End is too close to not activate her paranoia mode.

Also I'm unsure about how quite JonCon is going to keep the taking of Storm's End. Small castles, yes, but the whole point of SE was to establish a base, and for people to take them seriously.

Spoiler

Sorry I think I got Mace mixed up with somebody else in that Mercy chapter. 

I purposely did not say he'd be keeping it entirely quiet.

Cersei would freak out about Dragonstone. That's Stannis territory as far as she's concerned.

The point of taking SE was a slap in the face to House Baratheon. Taking one castle, even that one is not going to make anyone take them seriously. As to establishing a base, they did pick a good spot. But I hope they know a good smuggler in case of siege.

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20 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:
  Reveal hidden contents

Sorry I think I got Mace mixed up with somebody else in that Mercy chapter. 

I purposely did not say he'd be keeping it entirely quiet.

Cersei would freak out about Dragonstone. That's Stannis territory as far as she's concerned.

The point of taking SE was a slap in the face to House Baratheon. Taking one castle, even that one is not going to make anyone take them seriously. As to establishing a base, they did pick a good spot. But I hope they know a good smuggler in case of siege.

You said it's possible JC did things in a quite way, while possible it pretty much goes against his mission statement:

Quote

"I mean to take Storm's End. A nigh-impregnable stronghold, and Stannis Baratheon's last foothold in the south. Once taken, it will give us a secure fastness to which we may retreat at need, and winning it will prove our strength."

According to JonCon it will make them a serious threat. He is done with waiting and hiding out.

If Cersei freaked out about a small garrison at DS, she is going to throw a holy fit about 10,000 GC at SE.

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21 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The Faith is trying them. The Faith wants both of them to win. None of the principal powers in King's Landing want either of them to lose. 

I go back and forth on this. On one hand, yeah it makes sense. On the other, the HS might be such a zealot that sense is a minor obstacle for justice.

My guess, Marge's trial is uneventful for the reasons you stated and Cersei's is a win because nobody is taking out a 7 foot zombie-murder-tank. Least of all any piously bleating sparrows.

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2 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

How so? 

Braavos?? Daemon Sand seems pretty sure who is coming down on SE...

<snip

What if Margaery didn't make it, and Mace is marching his forces to Storm's End pretending to be against them, but is actually going over to Aegon's side? House Tyrell supported the Targaryens during the rebellion, and if Margaery is dead there is nothing holding them to the Lannister/Baratheon cause anymore.

 

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1 hour ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

I go back and forth on this. On one hand, yeah it makes sense. On the other, the HS might be such a zealot that sense is a minor obstacle for justice.

My guess, Marge's trial is uneventful for the reasons you stated and Cersei's is a win because nobody is taking out a 7 foot zombie-murder-tank. Least of all any piously bleating sparrows.

One of the charges against her is that her children are abominations born of incest. If she is found guilty the zealot loses his partner on the throne. 

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

One of the charges against her is that her children are abominations born of incest. If she is found guilty the zealot loses his partner on the throne. 

I guess they will wait for the "proper" king to arrive and promise to keep the Faith Militant around. Is that what you are thinking?

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3 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

What if Margaery didn't make it, and Mace is marching his forces to Storm's End pretending to be against them, but is actually going over to Aegon's side? House Tyrell supported the Targaryens during the rebellion, and if Margaery is dead there is nothing holding them to the Lannister/Baratheon cause anymore.

 

Mace has two armies in KL right now. If Marge were to be executed I don't think he'd wait to get at the people who did it. 

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1 hour ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

Mace has two armies in KL right now. If Marge were to be executed I don't think he'd wait to get at the people who did it. 

Indeed. Everything in the released chapters suggests that the Tyrell-Lannister alliance is holding for a little bit more, which means that the trial ended with both queens declared innocent. But the situation is highly unstable and things can spiral down very quickly. A lot will depend in how Cersei is able to contain herself in her relations with the Tyrells. By rights she should be the regent, but will the Tyrells agree on that? Why or how? Or will the Tyrells try to control the throne? My guess is that Cersei and Mace reached an understanding.

But there are also other actors in the game now. Soon Tyene and Nymeria Sand will be in the city and Varys is still working underground. If Tommen dies, the alliance breaks up. If Margery dies, the alliance breaks up. If Mance dies the alliance breaks up.

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6 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

I guess they will wait for the "proper" king to arrive and promise to keep the Faith Militant around. Is that what you are thinking?

I am thinking the Faith got everything they wanted from Cersei/Tommen, and Tommen"s male heir is Stannis, who has turned away from the Seven. I don't know whether the High Sparrow knows much about Aegon by the last time we hear from him, but I expect Varys has been feeding him information about his training in the ways of the Faith. 

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6 minutes ago, Praetor Xyn said:

You're assuming the chapters released so far take place after the trial. I see no reason to conclude this.

 

Before Harys is to go to Braavos he is to treat with Myrish bankers and Pentoshi magisters...

Quote

"Aye, if we had gold," Ser Harys Swyft said. "Alas, my lords, our vaults contain only rats and roaches. I have written again to the Myrish bankers. If they will agree to make good the crown's debt to the Braavosi and extend us a new loan, mayhaps we will not have to raise the taxes. Else-wise"

 

"The magisters of Pentos have been known to lend money as well," said Ser Kevan. "Try them." The Pentoshi were even less like to be of help than the Myrish money changers, but the effort must be made. Unless a new source of coin could be found, or the Iron Bank persuaded to relent, he would have no choice but to pay the crown's debts with Lannister gold. He dare not resort to new taxes, not with the Seven Kingdoms crawling with rebellion. Half the lords in the realm could not tell taxation from tyranny, and would bolt to the nearest usurper in a heartbeat if it would save them a clipped copper. "If that fails, you may well need to go to Braavos, to treat with the Iron Bank yourself."

Epilogue, Dance

But he should have been prepared to leave as soon as he was rejected or was unable to reach satisfactory terms...

Quote

"I put no faith in these Myrish bankers," Ser Kevan told his good-father. "You had best prepare to go to Braavos."

Epilogue, Dance

But apparently before that was to happen, Cersei's trial was set to take place within five days...

Quote

"Mayhaps we can persuade our Dornish friends to deal with Lord Connington," Ser Harys Swyft said with an irritating titter. "That would save a deal of blood and trouble."

 

"It would," Ser Kevan said wearily. Time to put an end to this.

 

"Thank you, my lords. Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei's trial."

 

"As you say. May the Warrior lend strength to Ser Robert's arms."

 

The words were grudging, the dip of the chin Mace Tyrell gave the Lord Regent the most cursory of bows. But it was something, and for that much Ser Kevan Lannister was grateful.

Epilogue, Dance

My assumption is that Cersei won her trial (all parties--Tyrell, Lannisters and the Faith--want her to win) and then Harys departs. 

Spoiler

This assumption is given more weight since Harys Swift's men in Braavos refer to Cersei as the queen in Mercy, and in Arianne II we learn that Mace is marching from King's Landing, which he was unlikely to do until his daughter was found innocent. 

 

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