The trial is over?

[Ser Maverick]

The Mercy chapter would definitely take place after the trial and Arianne II surely does as well. As OP stated, Harys Swift was in KL in the epilogue chapter and in Braavos in the Mercy chapter. In the epilogue chpater, they say Cersei's trial is in a couple days whereas the voyage to Braavos would be at least a couple weeks.

[Makk]

26 minutes ago, Ser Maverick said:

The Mercy chapter would definitely take place after the trial and Arianne II surely does as well. As OP stated, Harys Swift was in KL in the epilogue chapter and in Braavos in the Mercy chapter. In the epilogue chpater, they say Cersei's trial is in a couple days whereas the voyage to Braavos would be at least a couple weeks.

Mercy I agree with, but not Arianne 2. As I said earlier in the thread, according to this timeline Arianne arrives at Griffins Roost at the same time as Kevan's epilogue. There has been a huge amount of time and effort put into constructing this timeline and while I concede there could be a mistake either by George or all the people constructing this, it is also highly possibly that Daemon Sand makes the mistake. IIRC Mace Tyrell did leave Kings Landing with his army to take Storms End before returning to Kings Landing. It would be entirely plausible (likely in fact) for Daemon Sand and Arianne to not be aware that Mace is not with his army. If no mistake has been made, there is no way Maregery's trial has taken place by the end of Arianne 2.

[Lost Melnibonean]

15 hours ago, Makk said:

Mercy I agree with, but not Arianne 2. As I said earlier in the thread, according to this timeline Arianne arrives at Griffins Roost at the same time as Kevan's epilogue. There has been a huge amount of time and effort put into constructing this timeline and while I concede there could be a mistake either by George or all the people constructing this, it is also highly possibly that Daemon Sand makes the mistake. IIRC Mace Tyrell did leave Kings Landing with his army to take Storms End before returning to Kings Landing. It would be entirely plausible (likely in fact) for Daemon Sand and Arianne to not be aware that Mace is not with his army. If no mistake has been made, there is no way Maregery's trial has taken place by the end of Arianne 2.

That part of the timeline is clearly off. @Rhaenys_Targaryen

[PCK]

Cersei will win hers for sure. The prophecy and the Mercy chapter both allude to it. Plus, I doubt anyone currently in K.L. is taking down Robert Strong. The real question is what will the impact of the aftermath be? 

I'm 50/50 on Margaery's outcome. Seems like the Aegon plot would advance better if she were out of the picture soon. Whatever the case, the Lannister-Tyrell alliance will continue to fracture. I wonder if Renly asking Ned if Margaery resembled Lyanna wasn't a hint at her ultimate fate. Wouldn't be a stretch for her die in a tower under guard at this stage. If you're Varys, taking her out of the game is the most logical way to split the two houses.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

That part of the timeline is clearly off. @Rhaenys_Targaryen

I'm starting a new thread for this later today.. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I'm starting a new thread for this later today.. 

Great! Please include "most precise timeline" in the thread title.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

5 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Great! Please include "most precise timeline" in the thread title.

Will do. Will also tag you  

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 2/23/2017 at 6:35 PM, Makk said:

Mercy I agree with, but not Arianne 2. As I said earlier in the thread, according to this timeline Arianne arrives at Griffins Roost at the same time as Kevan's epilogue. There has been a huge amount of time and effort put into constructing this timeline and while I concede there could be a mistake either by George or all the people constructing this, it is also highly possibly that Daemon Sand makes the mistake. IIRC Mace Tyrell did leave Kings Landing with his army to take Storms End before returning to Kings Landing. It would be entirely plausible (likely in fact) for Daemon Sand and Arianne to not be aware that Mace is not with his army. If no mistake has been made, there is no way Maregery's trial has taken place by the end of Arianne 2.

At the end of Arianne II, Winds,

Spoiler

Haldon Halfmaester informs Arianne that Aegon has taken Storm’s End, and that Jon Connington wishes her to meet him there. Haldon proposes that she travel by ship across Shipbreaker Bay, to which Daemon Sand protests, noting that the safer journey is overland. Haldon responds that recent rains (not snows) have turned the roads to mud, so that the overland route would take two to three days (suggesting the distance is about 40 miles), while it would take less than half a day to cross the bay (suggesting the distance is about 1/7 the distance from King’s Landing to Dragonstone). Haldon adds that there is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing, and that Aegon intends to meet them in the field. Since Daemon Sand understands that to mean that Jon Connington and Mace Tyrell will meet in battle, I suppose we should too. That means we should assume that Mace is marching with that army from King’s Landing. Armies usually march at about 20 miles per day. We have estimated Storm’s End to be approximately 480 miles south of King’s Landing. With the Blackwater and the Wendwater being the only major obstacles since The King’s Road extends from the southern bank of the former and crosses the Wendwater through the Kingwood to Bronzegate. The mountains of the Dornish Marches end well west of the Straights of Tarth, leaving what appears to be relatively easy coastal terrain along the King’s Road south of Bronzegate on which the two armies can face off. The distance between Bronzegate and Storm’s End appears to be about three times the distance form Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End, so that ought to be about 120 miles, or about six days of marching. Thus, we can estimate the distance between King’s Landing and Bronzegate to be about 360 miles, or about 18 days of marching.

Now, it is likely that Varys, hiding in the walls of the Red Keep and about King’s Landing, would have sent word to Storm’s End of Mace’s intention. It would take two days for a raven to fly from King’s Landing to Storm’s End (by which time Mace would have crossed the Blackwater), and another half day for Haldon to cross Shipbreaker Bay (by which time Mace’s van should be into the Kingswood). So, we must have at least three days between Mace’s departure from King’s Landing and Arianne’s arrival at Grffin’s Roost.

But notice that Haldon wants Arianne inside Storm’s End before the battle, suggesting that Mace has already reached Bronzegate, and is likely rounding the end of the Dornish Marches. Otherwise, there would be no need to reject the safer road overland from Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End. That suggests, that Mace’s army departed King’s Landing two to three weeks (I would approximate 20 days) before Arianne arrives at Griffin’s Roost.

In the Epilogue to Dance, Mace Tyrell insists that he will not march from King’s Landing until after the trials of Cersei and Margaery, and Kevan says that the Small Council will reconvene in five days—after the trials. So we can say that Arianne II, Winds ends three to four weeks after the Epilogue to Dance, I would approximate the total time to be 24 days.

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

7 hours ago, PCK said:

Cersei will win hers for sure. The prophecy and the Mercy chapter both allude to it. Plus, I doubt anyone currently in K.L. is taking down Robert Strong. The real question is what will the impact of the aftermath be? 

I'm 50/50 on Margaery's outcome. Seems like the Aegon plot would advance better if she were out of the picture soon. Whatever the case, the Lannister-Tyrell alliance will continue to fracture. I wonder if Renly asking Ned if Margaery resembled Lyanna wasn't a hint at her ultimate fate. Wouldn't be a stretch for her die in a tower under guard at this stage. If you're Varys, taking her out of the game is the most logical way to split the two houses.

I've planned on her dying since I read that part of the inspiration for her storyline was Anne Boleyn. Probably innocent of all charges, but doomed anyway. Plus with Pycelle, the star witness against her, suddenly ending up dead...it does not look good. The reason Varys took out Pycelle and Kevan was to ditch two able leaders and destroy the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. Would be a shame if Kevan died for nothing.

[PCK]

2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I've planned on her dying since I read that part of the inspiration for her storyline was Anne Boleyn. Probably innocent of all charges, but doomed anyway. Plus with Pycelle, the star witness against her, suddenly ending up dead...it does not look good. The reason Varys took out Pycelle and Kevan was to ditch two able leaders and destroy the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. Would be a shame if Kevan died for nothing.

 

I definitely think she'll die. I'm just wondering whether it will be because she's found guilty at the trial or not.

[The Fresh PtwP]

22 hours ago, PCK said:

 

I definitely think she'll die. I'm just wondering whether it will be because she's found guilty at the trial or not.

I doubt it's the trial,

Spoiler

Mace is still working with the crown in Arianne II

Which I don't think he'd do if Marg lost and died.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

22 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

I doubt it's the trial,

  Reveal hidden contents

Mace is still working with the crown in Arianne II

Which I don't think he'd do if Marg lost and died.

Per the spoiler tagged...verified, or do we just assume it? 

Spoiler

I know I suggested pretending to march against Aegon, but what if there is no pretense and he's just marching to join Aegon?

Been a while since I've read the chapter.

[Makk]

Spoiler

Quote

Now, it is likely that Varys, hiding in the walls of the Red Keep and about King’s Landing, would have sent word to Storm’s End of Mace’s intention. It would take two days for a raven to fly from King’s Landing to Storm’s End (by which time Mace would have crossed the Blackwater), and another half day for Haldon to cross Shipbreaker Bay (by which time Mace’s van should be into the Kingswood). So, we must have at least three days between Mace’s departure from King’s Landing and Arianne’s arrival at Grffin’s Roost.

But notice that Haldon wants Arianne inside Storm’s End before the battle, suggesting that Mace has already reached Bronzegate, and is likely rounding the end of the Dornish Marches. Otherwise, there would be no need to reject the safer road overland from Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End. That suggests, that Mace’s army departed King’s Landing two to three weeks (I would approximate 20 days) before Arianne arrives at Griffin’s Roost.

In the Epilogue to Dance, Mace Tyrell insists that he will not march from King’s Landing until after the trials of Cersei and Margaery, and Kevan says that the Small Council will reconvene in five days—after the trials. So we can say that Arianne II, Winds ends three to four weeks after the Epilogue to Dance, I would approximate the total time to be 24 days.

I'm really not sure about this. Firstly it seems like you are using what Kevan said about reconvening in five days for the trials as a starting point... and he only mentions Cersei's trial in what you are saying...

"It would," Ser Kevan said wearily. Time to put an end to this. "Thank you, my lords. Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei's trial."

To me this implies they are not at the same time. And a trial by judgment would normally take longer to conclude than a trial by combat anyway.  

What is the main reason you believe the existing timeline is incorrect? Is there any other reason apart from Daemon Sand talking about facing Mace Tyrell and the fact he said he wouldn't move before Margaery was free?

Keep in mind that Ariannes party has only just learned Storms End has been taken or even attacked for that matter. They were expecting to meet them at Griffins Roost which implies that Connington and Aegon acted and took the castle quickly. In fact it is strongly implied it only took them 8 days or less to take the castle... the time it took to travel between Mistwood and Griffins Roost.

And we know that Connington was planning to march on on Storms End 10 days after he took Griffins Roost. This is significantly out from what you had above.

Lost Melnibonean. Sorry couldn't seem to get the quote in spoilers thing working properly.

[Lost Melnibonean]

33 minutes ago, Makk said:

  Hide contents

I'm really not sure about this. Firstly it seems like you are using what Kevan said about reconvening in five days for the trials as a starting point... and he only mentions Cersei's trial in what you are saying...

"It would," Ser Kevan said wearily. Time to put an end to this. "Thank you, my lords. Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei's trial."

To me this implies they are not at the same time. And a trial by judgment would normally take longer to conclude than a trial by combat anyway.  

What is the main reason you believe the existing timeline is incorrect? Is there any other reason apart from Daemon Sand talking about facing Mace Tyrell and the fact he said he wouldn't move before Margaery was free?

Keep in mind that Ariannes party has only just learned Storms End has been taken or even attacked for that matter. They were expecting to meet them at Griffins Roost which implies that Connington and Aegon acted and took the castle quickly. In fact it is strongly implied it only took them 8 days or less to take the castle... the time it took to travel between Mistwood and Griffins Roost.

And we know that Connington was planning to march on on Storms End 10 days after he took Griffins Roost. This is significantly out from what you had above.

Lost Melnibonean. Sorry couldn't seem to get the quote in spoilers thing working properly.

Mace says he's not leaving until after the trials.

[Makk]

10 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Mace says he's not leaving until after the trials.

Ah OK, well I don't think this is solid enough to be basing all that logic on. The only reason we think Mace Tyrell is approaching Storms End is that Daemon Sand thinks he is. 

Spoiler

“These rains have turned the roads to mud. The journey would take two days, perhaps three,” said Halden Halfmaester.  A ship will have the princess there in half a day or less. There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing. You will want to be safe inside the walls before the battle.”

Will we? Wondered Arianne. “Battle? Or siege?” She did not intend to let herself be trapped inside Storm’s End.

“Battle,” Halden said firmly. “Prince Aegon means to smash his enemies in the field.”

Then later

“I need to speak with Connington.”   Arianne undid the interlocked sun and spear that clasped her cloak, and let the rain-soaked garment slip from her shoulders to puddle on the floor. “And I want to see this dragon prince of his. If he is truly Elia’s son…”

“Whoever’s son he is, if Connington challenges Mace Tyrell in open battle he may soon be a captive, or a corpse.”

We don't know Mace Tyrell is leading the army. Mace may well have left some troops up there before he linked with Randal Tarley to return to Kings landing. There is no reason Daemon Sand should know this other than Mace Tyrell was originally leading the army before he returned to set Margaery free. Or the army may only just be leaving Kings landing. We don't even know if there is an army, Haldon Halfmaester may have simply been telling them that to get them on a ship and secure them at Storms End.

Also after Kevan is killed we don't know what happened in Kings Landing. The chances of everything ticking along smoothly is minimal, Mace may have removed Margaery from the city. He may have assumed power and got Tommen to pardon her. Randal Tarley may have been sent forth after they heard Storms End had fallen. Cersei may have lured him out to remove his army from the city. There is far too much uncertainty to be making the assumption you did especially when it doesn't fit with other events we know of.

In short, despite what we know from Arianne 2, I don't believe there is sufficient evidence that Margaery has won her trial.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 minute ago, Makk said:

Ah OK, well I don't think this is solid enough to be basing all that logic on. The only reason we think Mace Tyrell is approaching Storms End is that Daemon Sand thinks he is. 

  Hide contents

“These rains have turned the roads to mud. The journey would take two days, perhaps three,” said Halden Halfmaester.  A ship will have the princess there in half a day or less. There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing. You will want to be safe inside the walls before the battle.”

Will we? Wondered Arianne. “Battle? Or siege?” She did not intend to let herself be trapped inside Storm’s End.

“Battle,” Halden said firmly. “Prince Aegon means to smash his enemies in the field.”

Then later

“I need to speak with Connington.”   Arianne undid the interlocked sun and spear that clasped her cloak, and let the rain-soaked garment slip from her shoulders to puddle on the floor. “And I want to see this dragon prince of his. If he is truly Elia’s son…”

“Whoever’s son he is, if Connington challenges Mace Tyrell in open battle he may soon be a captive, or a corpse.”

We don't know Mace Tyrell is leading the army. Mace may well have left some troops up there before he linked with Randal Tarley to return to Kings landing. There is no reason Daemon Sand should know this other than Mace Tyrell was originally leading the army before he returned to set Margaery free. Or the army may only just be leaving Kings landing. We don't even know if there is an army, Haldon Halfmaester may have simply been telling them that to get them on a ship and secure them at Storms End.

Also after Kevan is killed we don't know what happened in Kings Landing. The chances of everything ticking along smoothly is minimal, Mace may have removed Margaery from the city. He may have assumed power and got Tommen to pardon her. Randal Tarley may have been sent forth after they heard Storms End had fallen. Cersei may have lured him out to remove his army from the city. There is far too much uncertainty to be making the assumption you did especially when it doesn't fit with other events we know of.

In short, despite what we know from Arianne 2, I don't believe there is sufficient evidence that Margaery has won her trial.

I agree to some extent. 

Spoiler

I think it's very possible that Mace would have stayed behind to keep an eye on things in volatile King's Landing. But if I had to bet I would bet that Daemon Sand is right. 

 

[Makk]

It's difficult to know what will happen in Kings Landing after Varys kills Kevan. He did it to create more chaos and that is almost certainly what will happen. Mace Tyrell should be able to assume control of the city if he wanted to because his forces overwhelm everything else there significantly. It's entirely possible there is no trial for Margaery at all.

[Lost Melnibonean]

16 minutes ago, Makk said:

It's difficult to know what will happen in Kings Landing after Varys kills Kevan. He did it to create more chaos and that is almost certainly what will happen. Mace Tyrell should be able to assume control of the city if he wanted to because his forces overwhelm everything else there significantly. It's entirely possible there is no trial for Margaery at all.

Randyll doesn't have any respect for them, but I think the sparrows would fight. 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

1 hour ago, Makk said:

It's difficult to know what will happen in Kings Landing after Varys kills Kevan. He did it to create more chaos and that is almost certainly what will happen. Mace Tyrell should be able to assume control of the city if he wanted to because his forces overwhelm everything else there significantly. It's entirely possible there is no trial for Margaery at all.

By smashing the alliance. Ripping the Lannisters and Tyrells apart naturally results in chaos because there is no one there to keep Cersei in check.

Unless you think she was just summarily executed, I don't see the High Sparrow letting it go. And with the star witness against her murdered, and Cersei no doubt claiming the Tyrells were behind it, things would definitely not look good for Margaery.

[The Fresh PtwP]

5 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Per the spoiler tagged...verified, or do we just assume it? 

  Reveal hidden contents

I know I suggested pretending to march against Aegon, but what if there is no pretense and he's just marching to join Aegon?

Been a while since I've read the chapter.

I'm basing it off:

Spoiler

Daemon Sand mentioning Mace Tyrell leading the army coming from KL. 

To your other point I don't think Mace will team up with Aegon. His "feigned boy" speech is pretty telling and he's still pretty deep in bed with the Lannisters while Marg and Tommen are alive.

I could see the Tyrells supporting Dany once she comes west.