Rhaenys_Targaryen

Most precise ASOIAF timeline v.3

54 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Thank you!

Spoiler

 

At the end of Arianne II, Winds, Haldon Halfmaester informs Arianne that Aegon has taken Storm’s End, and that Jon Connington wishes her to meet him there. Haldon proposes that she travel by ship across Shipbreaker Bay, to which Daemon Sand protests, noting that the safer journey is overland. Haldon responds that recent rains (not snows) have turned the roads to mud, so that the overland route would take two to three days (suggesting the distance is about 40 miles), while it would take less than half a day to cross the bay (suggesting the distance is about 1/7 the distance from King’s Landing to Dragonstone). [BTW, how do we know it takes about 3.5 days to sail from King’s Landing to Dragonstone?] Haldon adds that there is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing, and that Aegon intends to meet them in the field. Since Daemon Sand understands that to mean that Jon Connington and Mace Tyrell will meet in battle, I suppose we should too. That means we should assume that Mace is marching with that army from King’s Landing. Armies usually march at about 20 miles per day. We have estimated Storm’s End to be approximately 480 miles south of King’s Landing. With the Blackwater and the Wendwater being the only major obstacles since The King’s Road extends from the southern bank of the former and crosses the Wendwater through the Kingwood to Bronzegate. The mountains of the Dornish Marches end well west of the Straights of Tarth, leaving what appears to be relatively easy coastal terrain along the King’s Road south of Bronzegate on which the two armies can face off. The distance between Bronzegate and Storm’s End appears to be about three times the distance form Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End, so that ought to be about 120 miles, or about six days of marching. Thus, we can estimate the distance between King’s Landing and Bronzegate to be about 360 miles, or about 18 days of marching.

Now, it is likely that Varys, hiding in the walls of the Red Keep and about King’s Landing, would have sent word to Storm’s End of Mace’s intention. It would take two days for a raven to fly from King’s Landing to Storm’s End (by which time Mace would have crossed the Blackwater), and another half day for Haldon to cross Shipbreaker Bay (by which time Mace’s van should be into the Kingswood). So, we must have at least three days between Mace’s departure from King’s Landing and Arianne’s arrival at Grffin’s Roost.

But notice that Haldon wants Arianne inside Storm’s End before the battle, suggesting that Mace has already reached Bronzegate, and is likely rounding the end of the Dornish Marches. Otherwise, there would be no need to reject the safer road overland from Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End. That suggests, that Mace’s army departed King’s Landing two to three weeks (I would approximate 20 days) before Arianne arrives at Griffin’s Roost.

In the Epilogue to Dance, Mace Tyrell insists that he will not march from King’s Landing until after the trials of Cersei and Margaery, and Kevan says that the Small Council will reconvene in five days—after the trials. So we can say that Arianne II, Winds ends three to four weeks after the Epilogue to Dance, I would approximate the total time to be 24 days.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Continuing the topic once started by PrivateMajor, which had been closed for length, and the follow-up thread, which has been archived, the purpose of this thread is to discuss any potential errors or changes to the excel-timeline:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj_uNZmcJaTddG9BVU5tRnJJTE5KcE5JRkFha1ZfNUE#gid=8

Just thanks for all the hard work you all have done on this.

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23 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

[BTW, how do we know it takes about 3.5 days to sail from King’s Landing to Dragonstone?]

I don't have the time to look at a map to check it, but is it possible that the distance between Lannisport and Bear Island (a fortnight by ship) is used for that measure?

 

Regarding the travel times, we get this in Dance

It was a hundred leagues from Astapor to Yunkai by the old Ghiscari coast road, and another fifty from Yunkai to Meereen. The free companies, well mounted, could reach Yunkai in six days of hard riding, or eight at a more leisurely pace.

Now, the free companies are not the same as Mace's army, but can we use this for the speed of the armies?

As well as Stannis's army in the North, before the heavy snows begin

Deepwood Motte and Winterfell lay one hundred leagues of forest. Three hundred miles as the raven flies. “Fifteen days,” the knights told each other.

[..]

The army covered twenty-two miles the first day, by the reckoning of the guides Lady Sybelle had given them, trackers and hunters sworn to Deepwood with clan names like Forrester and Woods, Branch and Bole. The second day the host made twenty-four, as their vanguard passed beyond the Glover lands into the thick of the wolfswood.

So an army completely mounted should be able to cross the distance (on a road) in six to eight days, and by foot in about fifteen days (though we should keep in mind that marching on a Ghiscari road likely is easier than marching through the lands of the north shortly before the start of winter). The speed of Stannis's army in the first few days aligns good with your estimation of 20 miles per day

 

23 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The distance between Bronzegate and Storm’s End appears to be about three times the distance form Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End, so that ought to be about 120 miles, or about six days of marching. Thus, we can estimate the distance between King’s Landing and Bronzegate to be about 360 miles, or about 18 days of marching.

Which map are you basing this on? Looking at the Lands of Ice and Fire, the distances seem rather similar to me.

Or do you mean the distance of Bronzegate to SE (and thus also the distance between Griffin's Roost and SE) being about 1/3 of the distance between KL and Bronzegate? Because (based on the same map) on that I would agree.

With 480 miles estimated between SE and KL, and 20 to 24 (take ~22 as an average) miles per day, it would take ~22 days to march from KL to SE. If Mace and his army have already covered about 3/4 of the journey, he'd have been indeed been marching for about 18 days already.

"Thank you, my lords. Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei's trial."

I take this to mean that Cersei's trial takes place five days after the epilogue, and that the small council will convene again later that same day. But when will Margaery's trial take place? If I'm not mistaken, we do not know. But the fact that Kevan mentions only Cersei's trial, I think it implies that Margaery's trial takes place on a later date..

So Mace leaves more than 5 days after the epilogue,

 

Two days pass in The Grifin Reborn before Jon sends for Aegon. He plans to march eleven days later. Four days later, Aegon arrives (now only seven more days until Jon's planned march). During the epilogue, reports have reached KL that Connington is marching on SE.  Based on the counts above, he'd need some 4 days for it. So the epilogue should take place around the same time that SE falls, right? By the time the raven reporting on Connington has reached KL, Connington should have been able to have covered quite a large amount of the distance already.

Spoiler

 

IIRC, during Arianne I 4 days pass. In Arianne II, when she arrives as Mistwood,  another three days have passed, and as far as the GC knows, Connington is still marching. It takes them 8 more days to reach Griffin's Roost, at which point news has reached them that SE has fallen and the Tyrell army is on its way.

So Mace is only a few more days way from SE at the end of Arianne II, and thus would have been marching for ~18 days already, meaning that when Arianne II starts, Mace has only been on the march for about a week. Assuming for now that Mace cannot influence the date of Cersei's trial (five days after the epilogue) and the date of Margaery's trial (unknown amount of days after Cersei's trial), Arianne II takes place later than the timeline currently shows it (and subsequently Arianne I likely as well). 

Say that Margaery's trial takes place a week after Cersei's (if anyone has any idea how much time is supposed to be in between these two trials, please say so!). If Mace starts his march on SE the next day, he'll begin his march 12 days after the epilogue, meaning that Arianne II begins 19 days after the epilogue, and ends with her arrival at Griffin's Roost 30 days after the epilogue (since 11 days pas in the chapter), and not the one day the timeline currently shows.

 

It could even be the case that more days pass in between, but that would depend on how much time is between the trials of Margaery and Cersei.

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18 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Just thanks for all the hard work you all have done on this.

Thank you :) I cannot imagine how much time it must have taken the authors to create it once, but I'm glad I can help fixing small issues. It's been a while since I've worked on it, but timeslines are fun, and I hope that the thread will be as active as the previous versions were before the forum upgrade.

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From the sample chapter The Forsaken:

Spoiler

The timeline has Euron's fleet meeting Redwyne's fleet off the Arbor on May 7th. This is the day before Loras goes to Dragonstone and four days before Dragonstone falls and the Redwyne fleet is free to return to the Reach. Also, it is mentioned in the sample chapter that the Hightowers have finally made a move by sending out ships from Oldtown. When Sam arrives in Oldtown (May 21st according to the timeline) the Hightowers have yet to make any move. Therefore, to be consistent the timeline needs to move the "Battle of the Arbor" to May 22 or later.

EVIDENCE:

From AFFC-Chapter 45:

Quote

"To be sure, Lord Leyton's locked atop his tower with the Mad Maid, consulting books of spells. Might be he'll raise an army from the deeps. Or not. Baelor's building galleys, Gunthor has charge of the harbor, Garth is training new recruits, and Humfrey's gone to Lys to hire sellsails. If he can winkle a proper fleet out of his whore of a sister, we can start paying back the ironmen with some of their own coin. Till then, the best we can do is guard the sound and wait for the bitch queen in King's Landing to let Lord Peter off his leash."

And then there is this from "The Forsaken":
 

Spoiler

 

Quote

“Count yourself blessed, Damphair,” said Stonehand. “We are going back to sea. The Redwyne Fleet creeps closer towards us. The winds have been against them rounding Dorne, but they are finally near enough to have emboldened the old woman in Oldtown, so now Leyton Hightower’s sons moved down the Whispering Soung with hopes of catching us in the rear.”

 

So basically, the Hightowers had not yet sent out any ships at the time of Sam's arrival, but they had sent out ships by the time Euron's fleet was preparing to meet Redwyne's in battle. By the timeline, this would have to be May 22 or later.

 

Second Edit:  I was just reading through the timeline and saw that according to ADWD 44, the Redwyne fleet was rounding the coast of Dorne about 6/1. So:

Spoiler

Aeron lashed to front of the ship and the Battle of the Arbor needs to be moved past 6/1 for the timeline to be in agreement with itself.

 

Edited by bent branch
To add the evidence for the suggested change.

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3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I don't have the time to look at a map to check it, but is it possible that the distance between Lannisport and Bear Island (a fortnight by ship) is used for that measure?

 

Regarding the travel times, we get this in Dance

It was a hundred leagues from Astapor to Yunkai by the old Ghiscari coast road, and another fifty from Yunkai to Meereen. The free companies, well mounted, could reach Yunkai in six days of hard riding, or eight at a more leisurely pace.

Now, the free companies are not the same as Mace's army, but can we use this for the speed of the armies?

As well as Stannis's army in the North, before the heavy snows begin

Deepwood Motte and Winterfell lay one hundred leagues of forest. Three hundred miles as the raven flies. “Fifteen days,” the knights told each other.

[..]

The army covered twenty-two miles the first day, by the reckoning of the guides Lady Sybelle had given them, trackers and hunters sworn to Deepwood with clan names like Forrester and Woods, Branch and Bole. The second day the host made twenty-four, as their vanguard passed beyond the Glover lands into the thick of the wolfswood.

So an army completely mounted should be able to cross the distance (on a road) in six to eight days, and by foot in about fifteen days (though we should keep in mind that marching on a Ghiscari road likely is easier than marching through the lands of the north shortly before the start of winter). The speed of Stannis's army in the first few days aligns good with your estimation of 20 miles per day

 

Which map are you basing this on? Looking at the Lands of Ice and Fire, the distances seem rather similar to me.

Or do you mean the distance of Bronzegate to SE (and thus also the distance between Griffin's Roost and SE) being about 1/3 of the distance between KL and Bronzegate? Because (based on the same map) on that I would agree.

With 480 miles estimated between SE and KL, and 20 to 24 (take ~22 as an average) miles per day, it would take ~22 days to march from KL to SE. If Mace and his army have already covered about 3/4 of the journey, he'd have been indeed been marching for about 18 days already.

"Thank you, my lords. Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei's trial."

I take this to mean that Cersei's trial takes place five days after the epilogue, and that the small council will convene again later that same day. But when will Margaery's trial take place? If I'm not mistaken, we do not know. But the fact that Kevan mentions only Cersei's trial, I think it implies that Margaery's trial takes place on a later date..

So Mace leaves more than 5 days after the epilogue,

 

Two days pass in The Grifin Reborn before Jon sends for Aegon. He plans to march eleven days later. Four days later, Aegon arrives (now only seven more days until Jon's planned march). During the epilogue, reports have reached KL that Connington is marching on SE.  Based on the counts above, he'd need some 4 days for it. So the epilogue should take place around the same time that SE falls, right? By the time the raven reporting on Connington has reached KL, Connington should have been able to have covered quite a large amount of the distance already.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

IIRC, during Arianne I 4 days pass. In Arianne II, when she arrives as Mistwood,  another three days have passed, and as far as the GC knows, Connington is still marching. It takes them 8 more days to reach Griffin's Roost, at which point news has reached them that SE has fallen and the Tyrell army is on its way.

So Mace is only a few more days way from SE at the end of Arianne II, and thus would have been marching for ~18 days already, meaning that when Arianne II starts, Mace has only been on the march for about a week. Assuming for now that Mace cannot influence the date of Cersei's trial (five days after the epilogue) and the date of Margaery's trial (unknown amount of days after Cersei's trial), Arianne II takes place later than the timeline currently shows it (and subsequently Arianne I likely as well). 

Say that Margaery's trial takes place a week after Cersei's (if anyone has any idea how much time is supposed to be in between these two trials, please say so!). If Mace starts his march on SE the next day, he'll begin his march 12 days after the epilogue, meaning that Arianne II begins 19 days after the epilogue, and ends with her arrival at Griffin's Roost 30 days after the epilogue (since 11 days pas in the chapter), and not the one day the timeline currently shows.

 

It could even be the case that more days pass in between, but that would depend on how much time is between the trials of Margaery and Cersei.

Having served in a US light infantry division, I can assure you that 20 miles is a solid estimate of how far a non-mechanized army can march per day. 

If you're talking about getting somewhere very fast over relatively gentle terrain, 25 to 30 miles a day is possible, but after a week of that, even well-trained and physically fit soldiers will be exhausted. 

So, if you've got to march over 100 miles, or if you're going to be marching for a week or more, you really need to limit your march to 20 miles a day. 

I don't believe a mostly mounted army is going to move much faster. First, you don't want to leave your cavalry unsupported by infantry and vice versa. Second, some of those horse are going to be pulling carts in your bagged train. Third, your outriders and scouts will be far ahead and spread out wide, but they will be sending messages back and forth from the very front of their reach to the main column. 

And that's why Stannis very reasonably assumes he can march the 300 miles from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell in 15 days. 

Now, if we're talking nothing but light cavalry with plenty of horses to share the load of riders and their armor and other equipment over relatively easy terrain, I suppose we could assume that such a unit could travel 30 miles per day, and I guess such a unit could cover 300 miles in a week. Six days would be really pushing it. 

I don't have the Lands of Ice and Fire. I think my wife would divorce me if she caught me looking at them. (Some men have to hide porn; I have to hide ASOIAF.)  I was using this.

The distance from Storm's End to Bronzegate (around the eastern end of the Dornish Marches mountain range) is at least more than twice the distance from Storm's End to Griffin's Roost (along shore of Breakwater Bay). I eyeballed it at thrice the distance. 

I see what you mean about the trials. We know that Cersei's trial will occur with five days of the small council meeting in the Epilogue to Dance, but we don't know if Margaery's trial happens before, at the same time, or after Cersei's trial. I disagree that the wording suggests that Margaery's trial takes place before Cersei's trial. In fact, I would guess that it suggests that Margaery's trial takes place first. After Margaery's trial Mace can begin final preparations to march, and then depart the day after Cersei's trial. 

So, I would put 24 days between the Epilogue and Arianne II, Winds. 

Jon Connington and Aegon should be able to march on Storm’s End from Griffin’s Roost in two days. Mathis Rowan's outriders should report Aegon's movement within a day of Aegon’s march. Assuming Mathis dispatches a bird immediately, and assuming Storm's End falls within a day of Aegon's arrival, the Epilogue to Dance should occur the same day, or maybe the day after Storm's End falls to Aegon. And I guess that allows us to place The Griffin Reborn, what, 14 days before the Epilogue to Dance? (2 days plus 11, plus 1?) 

I will try to take a look at Arianne I, Winds again tomorrow. 

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On 26-2-2017 at 5:02 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Having served in a US light infantry division, I can assure you that 20 miles is a solid estimate of how far a non-mechanized army can march per day. 

If you're talking about getting somewhere very fast over relatively gentle terrain, 25 to 30 miles a day is possible, but after a week of that, even well-trained and physically fit soldiers will be exhausted. 

So, if you've got to march over 100 miles, or if you're going to be marching for a week or more, you really need to limit your march to 20 miles a day. 

I don't believe a mostly mounted army is going to move much faster. First, you don't want to leave your cavalry unsupported by infantry and vice versa. Second, some of those horse are going to be pulling carts in your bagged train. Third, your outriders and scouts will be far ahead and spread out wide, but they will be sending messages back and forth from the very front of their reach to the main column. 

And that's why Stannis very reasonably assumes he can march the 300 miles from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell in 15 days. 

Now, if we're talking nothing but light cavalry with plenty of horses to share the load of riders and their armor and other equipment over relatively easy terrain, I suppose we could assume that such a unit could travel 30 miles per day, and I guess such a unit could cover 300 miles in a week. Six days would be really pushing it. 

Ok, so we take 20 miles per day unless the text specifically states another distance covered :) 

Quote

I don't have the Lands of Ice and Fire. I think my wife would divorce me if she caught me looking at them. (Some men have to hide porn; I have to hide ASOIAF.)  I was using this.

The distance from Storm's End to Bronzegate (around the eastern end of the Dornish Marches mountain range) is at least more than twice the distance from Storm's End to Griffin's Roost (along shore of Breakwater Bay). I eyeballed it at thrice the distance. 

I prefer using GRRM-approved maps (the maps in the main books, or The Lands of Ice and Fire) over fan-made maps (such as the one you've linked). The map of the south from ASOS is the first one to display Bronzegate, but does not display Griffin's Roost. The AFFC map displays both, and there the distance between KL and Bronzegate is ~1,5 times (slightly less) the distance between Bronzegate and SE, while the distance between Bronzegate and SE is about 2,5 times the distance between Griffin's Roost and SE.

However, the ADWD map is much more detailed, and depicts things slightly different. The distance between Bronzegate and SE is slightly more than 2 times the distance between Bronzegate and KL, while the distance between Griffin's Roost and SE is only slightly less than the distance between Bronzegate and SE. The differences likely originate from the additional placement of Haystack Hall (called Haystitch Hall in the ADWD map), which apparently required Bronzegate to be located a bit more to the south, closer to SE. 

That map is similar to TLOIAF. These two contain the most details (Haystack Hall is not mapped anywhere else but on the map from ADWD and TLOIAF, IIRC), so I think it is best to follow these two. (If you have the app, the maps from TLOIAF are in there as well, so users can happily scroll through them; IIRC, the Westeros map is already included in the free version of the app)  So we can choose to average those two? With GR being slightly closer to SE than Bronzegate, and with the distance between Bronzegate and KL being about 2 to 2,5 times the distance of Bronzegate to SE?

 

Quote

I see what you mean about the trials. We know that Cersei's trial will occur with five days of the small council meeting in the Epilogue to Dance, but we don't know if Margaery's trial happens before, at the same time, or after Cersei's trial. I disagree that the wording suggests that Margaery's trial takes place before Cersei's trial. In fact, I would guess that it suggests that Margaery's trial takes place first. After Margaery's trial Mace can begin final preparations to march, and then depart the day after Cersei's trial. 

How so?

 

Quote

So, I would put 24 days between the Epilogue and Arianne II, Winds. 

Jon Connington and Aegon should be able to march on Storm’s End from Griffin’s Roost in two days. Mathis Rowan's outriders should report Aegon's movement within a day of Aegon’s march. Assuming Mathis dispatches a bird immediately, and assuming Storm's End falls within a day of Aegon's arrival, the Epilogue to Dance should occur the same day, or maybe the day after Storm's End falls to Aegon. And I guess that allows us to place The Griffin Reborn, what, 14 days before the Epilogue to Dance? (2 days plus 11, plus 1?) 

So with 480 miles between KL and SE, using the averages from above, it would be 332 miles from KL to Bronzegate, 148 miles from Bronzegate to SE, and somewhat less than 148 miles from Griffin's Roost to SE.

Say 20 miles a day, it would take Mace and his army about 17 days to march to Bronzegate, and another 8 to march arrive at SE, while Connington would take less time (but still more than 2 days).

So Arianne II would end (assuming for a moment that Cersei's trial is the last of the two and that Mace indeed is near Bronzegate at the time) about 22 days after the epilogue at minimum (5 days until the trial, about 17 days of marching from KL to Bronzegate). Shall we agree on 24 days (to be on the safe side)? :) 

Connington would need slightly less time to reach SE than anyone from Bronzegate would, so let's say 5 days? or 4,? With 2 days passing until Jon formulates his plan in which he decides that 11 days later they'll march, the chapter begins 13 days before they march on SE, and some 17 or 18 days before they reach SE. 

So yeah, I would guess that (assuming SE falls within a day) the castle falls the same day, day before, or day after the epillogue. That would place the start of the Griffin Reborn at some 18 days before the epilogue, and the end some 12 days before.

 

Quote

I will try to take a look at Arianne I, Winds again tomorrow. 

:)

Edited by Rhaenys_Targaryen

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On 26-2-2017 at 4:04 AM, bent branch said:

From the sample chapter The Forsaken:

  Hide contents

The timeline has Euron's fleet meeting Redwyne's fleet off the Arbor on May 7th. This is the day before Loras goes to Dragonstone and four days before Dragonstone falls and the Redwyne fleet is free to return to the Reach. Also, it is mentioned in the sample chapter that the Hightowers have finally made a move by sending out ships from Oldtown. When Sam arrives in Oldtown (May 21st according to the timeline) the Hightowers have yet to make any move. Therefore, to be consistent the timeline needs to move the "Battle of the Arbor" to May 22 or later.

EVIDENCE:

From AFFC-Chapter 45:

And then there is this from "The Forsaken":
 

  Hide contents

 

 

So basically, the Hightowers had not yet sent out any ships at the time of Sam's arrival, but they had sent out ships by the time Euron's fleet was preparing to meet Redwyne's in battle. By the timeline, this would have to be May 22 or later.

 

Second Edit:  I was just reading through the timeline and saw that according to ADWD 44, the Redwyne fleet was rounding the coast of Dorne about 6/1. So:

  Hide contents

Aeron lashed to front of the ship and the Battle of the Arbor needs to be moved past 6/1 for the timeline to be in agreement with itself.

 

I'll look into this. Thank you for the observations! :) Good catch!

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55 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Ok, so we take 20 miles per day unless the text specifically states another distance covered :) 

I prefer using GRRM-approved maps (the maps in the main books, or The Lands of Ice and Fire) over fan-made maps (such as the one you've linked). The map of the south from ASOS is the first one to display Bronzegate, but does not display Griffin's Roost. The AFFC map displays both, and there the distance between KL and Bronzegate is ~1,5 times (slightly less) the distance between Bronzegate and SE, while the distance between Bronzegate and SE is about 2,5 times the distance between Griffin's Roost and SE.

However, the ADWD map is much more detailed, and depicts things slightly different. The distance between Bronzegate and SE is slightly more than 2 times the distance between Bronzegate and KL, while the distance between Griffin's Roost and SE is only slightly less than the distance between Bronzegate and SE. The differences likely originate from the additional placement of Haystack Hall (called Haystitch Hall in the ADWD map), which apparently required Bronzegate to be located a bit more to the south, closer to SE. 

That map is similar to TLOIAF. These two contain the most details (Haystack Hall is not mapped anywhere else but on the map from ADWD and TLOIAF, IIRC), so I think it is best to follow these two. (If you have the app, the maps from TLOIAF are in there as well, so users can happily scroll through them; IIRC, the Westeros map is already included in the free version of the app)  So we can choose to average those two? With GR being slightly closer to SE than Bronzegate, and with the distance between Bronzegate and KL being about 2 to 2,5 times the distance of Bronzegate to SE?

 

How so?

 

So with 480 miles between KL and SE, using the averages from above, it would be 332 miles from KL to Bronzegate, 148 miles from Bronzegate to SE, and somewhat less than 148 miles from Griffin's Roost to SE.

Say 20 miles a day, it would take Mace and his army about 17 days to march to Bronzegate, and another 8 to march arrive at SE, while Connington would take less time (but still more than 2 days).

So Arianne II would end (assuming for a moment that Cersei's trial is the last of the two and that Mace indeed is near Bronzegate at the time) about 22 days after the epilogue at minimum (5 days until the trial, about 17 days of marching from KL to Bronzegate). Shall we agree on 24 days (to be on the safe side)? :) 

Connington would need slightly less time to reach SE than anyone from Bronzegate would, so let's say 5 days? or 4,? With 2 days passing until Jon formulates his plan in which he decides that 11 days later they'll march, the chapter begins 13 days before they march on SE, and some 17 or 18 days before they reach SE. 

So yeah, I would guess that (assuming SE falls within a day) the castle falls the same day, day before, or day after the epillogue. That would place the start of the Griffin Reborn at some 18 days before the epilogue, and the end some 12 days before.

 

:)

I have the app. I will refer to that going forward. 

It just makes sense to me that they would reconvene after both trials if they're going to wait five days. They could always call an emergency session if necessary. 

24 days sounds right to me. But I am going to look at it again with the app map, as well as Arianne I this morning. 

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How do we know that the time to get from Volantis to Griffin's Roost is 17 days? 

ETA

The distance between Sunspear and High Hermitage appears to be about 1,000 miles, yes? 

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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wow, great work! it's a very remarkable timelime, well done everyone!  and thanks for the job.

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13 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

How do we know that the time to get from Volantis to Griffin's Roost is 17 days? 

I have no idea... But it sounds a bit fast, especially considering they encountered a storm at the Stepstones.

Quote

ETA

The distance between Sunspear and High Hermitage appears to be about 1,000 miles, yes? 

About 1000 miles, yes.

 

Edit: I found a statement from Arianne II stating that the journey from GR to SE would take two or three days, because the rains have turned the roads into mud. So Connington would have taken slightly longer because he marched with a large number of men, right? ~4 days?

Edited by Rhaenys_Targaryen

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2 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I have no idea... But it sounds a bit fast, especially considering they encountered a storm at the Stepstones.

About 1000 miles, yes.

 

Edit: I found a statement from Arianne II stating that the journey from GR to SE would take two or three days, because the rains have turned the roads into mud. So Connington would have taken slightly longer because he marched with a large number of men, right? ~4 days?

I have been pouring over Cersei I & II, the Epilogue, Lost Lord, Griffin Reborn, and Arianne I & II. And it seems to me that the distance between Griffin's Roost and Storm’s End is much less than the way it is depicted on the map. Also, it looks like Mace is marching very fast. I should have something comprehensive to post today or tomorrow. 

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How's this?

Spoiler

Arianne I, Winds and Arianne II, Winds span 18 consecutive days (two days crossing the Broken Arm of Dorne from the Water Gardens, and another day and a half through up the hills to Ghost Hill. Arianne and her party sail from Ghost ill the next day and arrive at Weeping Town the day after that. After a night in Weeping Town they ride three and a half days to Mistwood. After spending the night at the castle, Chain escorts them part of the way to Griffin’s Roost. Four days after they depart Mistwood, Chain departs their company, and they are met by Lysono Maar on the road. Arianne and her company arrive at Griffin’s Roost three days after that. These two Arianne chapters appear to occur about the same time as events unfold in 1) The Griffin Reborn, Dance 61; 2) Cersei I, Dance 54; 3) Cersei II, Dance 65; and 4) the Epilogue to Dance. These six  chapters are preceded by The Watcher, Dance 38.

In The Watcher, Dance 38, Balon Swann has finally arrived at Sunspear, but he has not yet met Myrcella at the Water Gardens. Most critically, we see that Doran has received word from Lys that a great fleet out of Volantis carrying an army with elephants has put in there to take on water. This tells us that Jon Connington has led Aegon and the Golden Company to Volantis and onto Lys, and we expect him to sail on to Westeros. Since ravens of are not sea birds, we know that the most direct way for Doran to have this information is by ship from Lys. I think we can assume that there is regular ship transit between Sunspear in Lys, so I don’t think we need to add any more than a day to the approximate ship travel time between Lys and Sunspear for Doran to have obtained this information. According the map of Westeros on the app, the distance between Lys and Susnspear appears to be about 450 miles. Since we have calculated the distance by sea between Lannisport and Bear Island to be 2,435 miles, and since Jorah tells us that it took two weeks for him to travel that distance, we can approximate that ships travel about 175 miles per day. That suggests that it takes about two and a half days to sail from Lys to Sunspear. So, we can assume that Doran learned of Jon Connington’s departure from Lys four days after the Gold Company began to cross the Narrow Sea from Lys. The distance by sea between Lys and Griffin’s Roost appears to be about 900 miles. At 175 miles per day, we can assume that it should take the Golden Company about five days to reach the north shore of Cape Wrath near Griffin’s Roost. Since half the fleet was scattered by a storm, we can add to that, and guesstimate that the crossing took a week, and that the Golden Company should have landed on Cape Wrath about three days after Doran learned of their departure from Lys. But, since we are going to need more time to synchronize with other chapters, let’s stretch the trip out to two weeks, so that the Golden Company should land on Cape Wrath 10 days after The Watcher, Dance 38

Doran sends Nym and Tyene to King’s Landing with Myrcella, and Obara to High Hermitage with Balon Swann, Presumably, they all travel to the Water Gardens the following morning, and the two parties depart from the Water Gardens the next day. Since we have calculated the distance between Sunspear and King’s Landing to be 2055, and since we know that armies travel about 20 miles a day, we can estimate the arrival time in King’s Landing to be about 100 days later. We can cut that time to three months if we assume that they travel 23 miles per day. We can cut that time to 75 days if we assume that they travel between 27 and 30 miles per day. That is about as fast as we should expect Nym and Tyene to travel with Myrcella over such a great distance. On the other hand, I think we can expect Obara and Balon Swann to reach High Hermitage, which appear to be about 975 miles from the Water Gardens after about three weeks. They will be using horses bred for speed and endurance, and I would expect Obara to push the marcher knight out of pride.

The Griffin Reborn, Dance 61, must precede Cersei I, Dance 54 since in the former, Jon Connington has landed on Cape Wrath near Grffin’s Roost, and since in the latter, Kevan has already received reports, which would take at least two days to arrive by raven, that unidentified sellswords have landed at Tarth, the Stepstones, and Cape Wrath. Shortly after landing, Jon Connington takes Griffin’s Roost, and within one day, Haldon expects the Golden Company to have taken Crow’s Nest, Rain House, and Greenstone. We will find out later that they will take Mistwood as well. Haldon learns that Cersei and Margaery stand accused, but they have not yet been tried, and he learns that Mace Tyrell has abandoned his siege of Storm’s End to return to King’s Landing to “save his daughter, leaving only a token force behind.” The chapter goes on for another five days. The day after Jon Connington captures Griffin’s Roost, he orders the Golden Company to prepare to march on Storms’ End ten days later. Five days after Jon Connington takes Griffin’s Roost, Aegon arrives.

We can synchronize The Griffin Reborn, Dance 61 with Arianne I, Winds, and Arianne II Winds, since Jon Connington orders Haldon to inform Doran that He has arrived with Aegon. It would take about two days for the raven to reach Sunspear, and another two days for Arianne to depart the Water Gardens with her party. Since Harry Strickland notes that the Golden Company has captured  four castles in four days, the day after they captured Griffin’s Roost, we can begin counting days two days beforethe capture of Griffin’s Roost, marking Day 1 as Jon Connington’s landing on Cape Wrath near Griffin’s Roost. Day 3, then, is Jon Connington’s capture of Griffin’s Roost. On Day 7, Arianne departs the Water Gardens. On Day 8, Aegon arrives at Griffin’s Roost. On Day 10, Arianne arrives at Ghost Hill, and on Day 11, she departs. On Day 12, She arrives at Weeping Town, and Arianne II, Winds begins.

Cersei I, Dance 54, spans several days, after which Cersei confesses. Septa Scolera lets slip that Margaery’s trial is to be done soon. The next day, Kevan visits her. In addition to the bit about the sellswords landing in the Stormlands, Kevan tells Cersei that Jaime has gone off with Brienne. Mace Tyrell has returned from Storm’s End to become Hand, Randyll Tarly has come down from Maidenpool to become Justiciar, and Paxter Redwyne has been named Lord Admiral. And, of course, Balon Swann has sent word from the Water Gardens about Myrcella. Kevan tells her that she will have to make a walk of atonement, and we should assume that Cersei makes her walk of atonement, which is the subject of Cersei II, Dance 65 the following day.

On Day 13, Arianne departs Weeping Town and arrives at the cave in the Rainwood, where she muses that Nym and Tyene might have reached King’s Landing by now. That suggests that Arianne II begins approximately 75 days after The Watcher, Dance 38. That is problematic though, since it has only been 13 days since Jon Connington lands on Cape Wrath.  Since we guesstimated above that the Golden Company landed on Cape Wrath 10 days after Doran learned of their departure from Lys, and since only 13 days have passed since Arianne muses that Nym and Tyene have reached King’s Landing with Myrcella, that leaves only 23 days for Nym and Tyene to reach King’s Landing, requiring them to travel nearly 90 miles per day. Fortunately, it does not appear that Myrcella has actually reached King’s Landing yet, but we can try to accelerate her trip, by putting her party on fast, strong horses and pushing their travel to 45 to 50 miles per day, at least as far as Wyl, and perhaps a little further, so that they travel twice as fast the first half of their journey, for an average of about 40 miles per day, which could get them to King’s Landing within 50 days. That would mean that Arianne is off by about 25 days or so, and it would also mean that the earliest that Myrcella could reach King’s Landing would be two weeks after Arianne arrives at Griffin’s Roost.

On Day 14, Connington departs Griffin’s Roost. In the Epilogue to Dance, Kevan has learned that Connington has taken Griffin’s Roost. It also appears that Red Ronnet has just arrived from Maidenpool with the remainder of Gregor Clegane’s men, including Raff the Sweetling. Kevan also knows that Connington is marching on Storm’s End, So the Epilogue to Dance must occur at least two days after Day 14, so we can place the small council meeting in the Epilogue to Dance on Day 16. Neither of the trials have occurred yet, but we can assume that they will occur within five days, since the Small Council is to reconvene in five days, and Tyrell will only march after the trial of his daughter. Harys Swift is to write to Pentos for loans, but Kevan directs him to prepare to leave for Braavos. Myrcella is on her way, and it sounds like she should be arriving soon. Balon Swann and Obara are still hunting Darkstar, so we have to wonder about what has been going on there. A white raven arrives, so that we can synchronize with any other white ravens, and Varys kills Pycelle and Kevan.

On Day 16, Arianne arrives at Mistwood, and on Day 17, Arianne departs Mistwood. On Day 19, Connington arrives at and takes Storm’s End. On Day 21, Arianne meets Lysono Maar, and by this time the trials should have been concluded, allowing Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly to begin their march on Storm’s End. On Day 24, Arianne arrives at Griffin’s Roost, where she learns that Mace Tyrell is marching from Storm’s End, and that Jon Connington intends to meet him in the field.

 

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forgive me , i have nothing to add ((yet)hopefully)  the top deck of the timeline document says it was last updated  May 30th ... should one not pay attention to that date? 
i don't mean to be a pushy pesky asker of stuff :) 

R_T are  you the principal updater on the document?
 

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I am going back to the beginning with a few suggestions

1. You could move Dany forward a month or so, just so the prologue comes first. it would not affect the time lines because there is a lot of "fat' in her arc.

Re Jon's/Robb's birth dates. You are trying to do the impossible and reconcile an obvious conflict. The problem is that we are told that Robb is several months older than Jon. It is fairly irrelvant as to the actual dates because the kids themselves believe Robb to be the elder and hence he celebrates his name day first.  This basically means his birthday was probably in the sixth month - while bran lay sick perhaps after Catelyn left.  If this conflicts with other timelines so be it.  Namedays ie birthdays are exactly the sort of thing kids remember so it is not something to assume is incorrect. GRRM may have made a mistake either with the ages of the two, or the date of Cat's marriage, or a name day is not a birthday but rather a day celebrating the actual name ie Jon's day robb's day.  There is of course the more obvious possibility - Robb was conceived two months before the wedding!!!!!

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On 28-2-2017 at 5:50 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

How's this?

  Hide contents

Arianne I, Winds and Arianne II, Winds span 18 consecutive days (two days crossing the Broken Arm of Dorne from the Water Gardens, and another day and a half through up the hills to Ghost Hill. Arianne and her party sail from Ghost ill the next day and arrive at Weeping Town the day after that. After a night in Weeping Town they ride three and a half days to Mistwood. After spending the night at the castle, Chain escorts them part of the way to Griffin’s Roost. Four days after they depart Mistwood, Chain departs their company, and they are met by Lysono Maar on the road. Arianne and her company arrive at Griffin’s Roost three days after that. These two Arianne chapters appear to occur about the same time as events unfold in 1) The Griffin Reborn, Dance 61; 2) Cersei I, Dance 54; 3) Cersei II, Dance 65; and 4) the Epilogue to Dance. These six  chapters are preceded by The Watcher, Dance 38.

In The Watcher, Dance 38, Balon Swann has finally arrived at Sunspear, but he has not yet met Myrcella at the Water Gardens. Most critically, we see that Doran has received word from Lys that a great fleet out of Volantis carrying an army with elephants has put in there to take on water. This tells us that Jon Connington has led Aegon and the Golden Company to Volantis and onto Lys, and we expect him to sail on to Westeros. Since ravens of are not sea birds, we know that the most direct way for Doran to have this information is by ship from Lys. I think we can assume that there is regular ship transit between Sunspear in Lys, so I don’t think we need to add any more than a day to the approximate ship travel time between Lys and Sunspear for Doran to have obtained this information. According the map of Westeros on the app, the distance between Lys and Susnspear appears to be about 450 miles. Since we have calculated the distance by sea between Lannisport and Bear Island to be 2,435 miles, and since Jorah tells us that it took two weeks for him to travel that distance, we can approximate that ships travel about 175 miles per day. That suggests that it takes about two and a half days to sail from Lys to Sunspear. So, we can assume that Doran learned of Jon Connington’s departure from Lys four days after the Gold Company began to cross the Narrow Sea from Lys. The distance by sea between Lys and Griffin’s Roost appears to be about 900 miles. At 175 miles per day, we can assume that it should take the Golden Company about five days to reach the north shore of Cape Wrath near Griffin’s Roost. Since half the fleet was scattered by a storm, we can add to that, and guesstimate that the crossing took a week, and that the Golden Company should have landed on Cape Wrath about three days after Doran learned of their departure from Lys. But, since we are going to need more time to synchronize with other chapters, let’s stretch the trip out to two weeks, so that the Golden Company should land on Cape Wrath 10 days after The Watcher, Dance 38

Doran sends Nym and Tyene to King’s Landing with Myrcella, and Obara to High Hermitage with Balon Swann, Presumably, they all travel to the Water Gardens the following morning, and the two parties depart from the Water Gardens the next day. Since we have calculated the distance between Sunspear and King’s Landing to be 2055, and since we know that armies travel about 20 miles a day, we can estimate the arrival time in King’s Landing to be about 100 days later. We can cut that time to three months if we assume that they travel 23 miles per day. We can cut that time to 75 days if we assume that they travel between 27 and 30 miles per day. That is about as fast as we should expect Nym and Tyene to travel with Myrcella over such a great distance. On the other hand, I think we can expect Obara and Balon Swann to reach High Hermitage, which appear to be about 975 miles from the Water Gardens after about three weeks. They will be using horses bred for speed and endurance, and I would expect Obara to push the marcher knight out of pride.

The Griffin Reborn, Dance 61, must precede Cersei I, Dance 54 since in the former, Jon Connington has landed on Cape Wrath near Grffin’s Roost, and since in the latter, Kevan has already received reports, which would take at least two days to arrive by raven, that unidentified sellswords have landed at Tarth, the Stepstones, and Cape Wrath. Shortly after landing, Jon Connington takes Griffin’s Roost, and within one day, Haldon expects the Golden Company to have taken Crow’s Nest, Rain House, and Greenstone. We will find out later that they will take Mistwood as well. Haldon learns that Cersei and Margaery stand accused, but they have not yet been tried, and he learns that Mace Tyrell has abandoned his siege of Storm’s End to return to King’s Landing to “save his daughter, leaving only a token force behind.” The chapter goes on for another five days. The day after Jon Connington captures Griffin’s Roost, he orders the Golden Company to prepare to march on Storms’ End ten days later. Five days after Jon Connington takes Griffin’s Roost, Aegon arrives.

We can synchronize The Griffin Reborn, Dance 61 with Arianne I, Winds, and Arianne II Winds, since Jon Connington orders Haldon to inform Doran that He has arrived with Aegon. It would take about two days for the raven to reach Sunspear, and another two days for Arianne to depart the Water Gardens with her party. Since Harry Strickland notes that the Golden Company has captured  four castles in four days, the day after they captured Griffin’s Roost, we can begin counting days two days beforethe capture of Griffin’s Roost, marking Day 1 as Jon Connington’s landing on Cape Wrath near Griffin’s Roost. Day 3, then, is Jon Connington’s capture of Griffin’s Roost. On Day 7, Arianne departs the Water Gardens. On Day 8, Aegon arrives at Griffin’s Roost. On Day 10, Arianne arrives at Ghost Hill, and on Day 11, she departs. On Day 12, She arrives at Weeping Town, and Arianne II, Winds begins.

Cersei I, Dance 54, spans several days, after which Cersei confesses. Septa Scolera lets slip that Margaery’s trial is to be done soon. The next day, Kevan visits her. In addition to the bit about the sellswords landing in the Stormlands, Kevan tells Cersei that Jaime has gone off with Brienne. Mace Tyrell has returned from Storm’s End to become Hand, Randyll Tarly has come down from Maidenpool to become Justiciar, and Paxter Redwyne has been named Lord Admiral. And, of course, Balon Swann has sent word from the Water Gardens about Myrcella. Kevan tells her that she will have to make a walk of atonement, and we should assume that Cersei makes her walk of atonement, which is the subject of Cersei II, Dance 65 the following day.

On Day 13, Arianne departs Weeping Town and arrives at the cave in the Rainwood, where she muses that Nym and Tyene might have reached King’s Landing by now. That suggests that Arianne II begins approximately 75 days after The Watcher, Dance 38. That is problematic though, since it has only been 13 days since Jon Connington lands on Cape Wrath.  Since we guesstimated above that the Golden Company landed on Cape Wrath 10 days after Doran learned of their departure from Lys, and since only 13 days have passed since Arianne muses that Nym and Tyene have reached King’s Landing with Myrcella, that leaves only 23 days for Nym and Tyene to reach King’s Landing, requiring them to travel nearly 90 miles per day. Fortunately, it does not appear that Myrcella has actually reached King’s Landing yet, but we can try to accelerate her trip, by putting her party on fast, strong horses and pushing their travel to 45 to 50 miles per day, at least as far as Wyl, and perhaps a little further, so that they travel twice as fast the first half of their journey, for an average of about 40 miles per day, which could get them to King’s Landing within 50 days. That would mean that Arianne is off by about 25 days or so, and it would also mean that the earliest that Myrcella could reach King’s Landing would be two weeks after Arianne arrives at Griffin’s Roost.

On Day 14, Connington departs Griffin’s Roost. In the Epilogue to Dance, Kevan has learned that Connington has taken Griffin’s Roost. It also appears that Red Ronnet has just arrived from Maidenpool with the remainder of Gregor Clegane’s men, including Raff the Sweetling. Kevan also knows that Connington is marching on Storm’s End, So the Epilogue to Dance must occur at least two days after Day 14, so we can place the small council meeting in the Epilogue to Dance on Day 16. Neither of the trials have occurred yet, but we can assume that they will occur within five days, since the Small Council is to reconvene in five days, and Tyrell will only march after the trial of his daughter. Harys Swift is to write to Pentos for loans, but Kevan directs him to prepare to leave for Braavos. Myrcella is on her way, and it sounds like she should be arriving soon. Balon Swann and Obara are still hunting Darkstar, so we have to wonder about what has been going on there. A white raven arrives, so that we can synchronize with any other white ravens, and Varys kills Pycelle and Kevan.

On Day 16, Arianne arrives at Mistwood, and on Day 17, Arianne departs Mistwood. On Day 19, Connington arrives at and takes Storm’s End. On Day 21, Arianne meets Lysono Maar, and by this time the trials should have been concluded, allowing Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly to begin their march on Storm’s End. On Day 24, Arianne arrives at Griffin’s Roost, where she learns that Mace Tyrell is marching from Storm’s End, and that Jon Connington intends to meet him in the field.

 

I haven't had a lot of time yet, but I will look at it this weekend. I have some a few other smaller issues that we can fix immediately with this timeline issue.

15 hours ago, Yaya said:

forgive me , i have nothing to add ((yet)hopefully)  the top deck of the timeline document says it was last updated  May 30th ... should one not pay attention to that date? 
i don't mean to be a pushy pesky asker of stuff :) 

I added that line long ago so people could more easily differentiate between versions, but others who edit the file do not change it. Regardless, during the past year, not many edits have been made to the timeline (hence the revival of this thread :) ).

 

15 hours ago, Yaya said:

R_T are  you the principal updater on the document?

It's not my document, and I haven't updated it in a long time, but when we had the other two threads for discussion of any potential issues, I was probably one of the most frequent editors, yes.

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