Most precise ASOIAF timeline v.3

[SFDanny]

The problem with much of the efforts around these timelines is rooted in trying to make real world travel times fit within Martin's story. For example, throw out the minimum time it should take Tyrion to travel from the Wall to the Inn at the crossroads and just accept he does so at "Martin speed." It's a lot easier to come up with a workable timeline, not easy but easier, if one doesn't try to fit the square peg of the real world into the round hole of Martin's story. A quick look makes me think this is a problem here as well.

Many of the dates for namedays are months off. As you know, RT

I'll look into it and try to make some suggestions for corrections. Thanks for the post RT

[Lost Melnibonean]

16 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

The problem with much of the efforts around these timelines is rooted in trying to make real world travel times fit within Martin's story. For example, throw out the minimum time it should take Tyrion to travel from the Wall to the Inn at the crossroads and just accept he does so at "Martin speed." It's a lot easier to come up with a workable timeline, not easy but easier, if one doesn't try to fit the square peg of the real world into the round hole of Martin's story. A quick look makes me think this is a problem here as well.

Many of the dates for namedays are months off. As you know, RT

I'll look into it and try to make some suggestions for corrections. Thanks for the post RT

Yes it is impossible to make it perfect.

Just as it is impossible to square all those gold coins stuffed in the Hounds pockets with no wagon or pack annimals, Arya's encounter at the Wind Witch outside the walls of King's Landing, Catelyn's encounter with Jason Mallister near the Crossroads Inn when he was apparently already in King's Landing.

But we try. Like the Golden Company, we are persistent. 

(Tyrion's accelerated travel time has been noted since the beginning of this effort.)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

The problem with much of the efforts around these timelines is rooted in trying to make real world travel times fit within Martin's story. For example, throw out the minimum time it should take Tyrion to travel from the Wall to the Inn at the crossroads and just accept he does so at "Martin speed." It's a lot easier to come up with a workable timeline, not easy but easier, if one doesn't try to fit the square peg of the real world into the round hole of Martin's story. A quick look makes me think this is a problem here as well.

Many of the dates for namedays are months off. As you know, RT

I'll look into it and try to make some suggestions for corrections. Thanks for the post RT

Yeah, I know. I've also been considering removing several of them. The birthdays of Daenerys and Joffrey are featured in specific chapters, and Jon's and Robb's are referenced as having been a specific time before a specific chapter, but all of the others are purely a guess. I don't know who placed the namedays of Rickon, Bran, Arya, and Sansa (it certainly wasn't me), but I feel that it might be better to remove them and list between which two dates the namedays should fall.

Suggestions for corrections would be very much appreciated!  

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Suggestions for corrections would be very much appreciated!  

I will try my best to go over it this weekend.

[Luddagain]

I think you can probably leave Sansa's birthday given that when we see her last she is still 13 and a heck of a lot has happened to her after she turned 13 -  cancelled wedding, wedding to Tyrion, Red wedding, Purple wedding, travel to the Fingers, Lysa's wedding, travel to the Eyrie, Lysa's death, travel down the mountain etc

indeed you can sort of get a handle on the kid's ages - Bran and Jon have namedays white close ie bran turns 8 while in a coma so fairly close to jon's nameday turning 15. Let us say he was 7 yrs 9 months when we meet him.

 

If we sort of assume there is 20 -24 months between Bran and Arya and the same for Sansa and Arya, we get

Arya 9 years 5 months and Sansa 11 ys 1 month

[SFDanny]

If you want a discussion of namedays then may I suggest an very old thread from 2008, unimaginatively named Character Ages, I started on the subject, or some of the even older threads referenced by others in it. Since that time, @Rhaenys_Targaryen has done amazing work in correcting and establishing character ages in the wiki, for which she has my utmost respect.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

6 hours ago, Luddagain said:

I think you can probably leave Sansa's birthday given that when we see her last she is still 13 and a heck of a lot has happened to her after she turned 13 -  cancelled wedding, wedding to Tyrion, Red wedding, Purple wedding, travel to the Fingers, Lysa's wedding, travel to the Eyrie, Lysa's death, travel down the mountain etc

Not necessarily. Sansa states that she will turn 13 within a month during her wedding night. But when in that month? To give a specific date, imo, would be wrong (without more info). Instead, I think it would be better to make it clear that within 30 days of her wedding night, her nameday takes place.

 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

So, to tackle both the "Arianne travelling to SE" and the "Redwyne-fleet/Ironborn raids" issues:

 

We have Balon Swann's arrival at Sunspear currently at 5-28, so I'm going to work from there. At the end of the chapter, we learn that Doran has been told that ships from the GC have taken port at Lys. Whichever sources have brought Doran this news from Lys, it appears to be the case that the GC did not leave at the same time. I can imagine that the GC remained at Lys for a few days, allowing their elephants to move a little before putting them in the ships again, considering that they would likely want to use the animals in battle as quickly as possible.

On 28-2-2017 at 5:50 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Spoiler

In The Watcher, Dance 38, Balon Swann has finally arrived at Sunspear, but he has not yet met Myrcella at the Water Gardens. Most critically, we see that Doran has received word from Lys that a great fleet out of Volantis carrying an army with elephants has put in there to take on water. This tells us that Jon Connington has led Aegon and the Golden Company to Volantis and onto Lys, and we expect him to sail on to Westeros. Since ravens of are not sea birds, we know that the most direct way for Doran to have this information is by ship from Lys. I think we can assume that there is regular ship transit between Sunspear in Lys, so I don’t think we need to add any more than a day to the approximate ship travel time between Lys and Sunspear for Doran to have obtained this information. According the map of Westeros on the app, the distance between Lys and Susnspear appears to be about 450 miles. Since we have calculated the distance by sea between Lannisport and Bear Island to be 2,435 miles, and since Jorah tells us that it took two weeks for him to travel that distance, we can approximate that ships travel about 175 miles per day. That suggests that it takes about two and a half days to sail from Lys to Sunspear. So, we can assume that Doran learned of Jon Connington’s departure from Lys four days after the Gold Company began to cross the Narrow Sea from Lys. The distance by sea between Lys and Griffin’s Roost appears to be about 900 miles. At 175 miles per day, we can assume that it should take the Golden Company about five days to reach the north shore of Cape Wrath near Griffin’s Roost. Since half the fleet was scattered by a storm, we can add to that, and guesstimate that the crossing took a week, and that the Golden Company should have landed on Cape Wrath about three days after Doran learned of their departure from Lys. But, since we are going to need more time to synchronize with other chapters, let’s stretch the trip out to two weeks, so that the Golden Company should land on Cape Wrath 10 days after The Watcher, Dance 38

 

Doran has only heard about the GC arriving in Lys, not about them leaving. If we assume that they remained at Lys for a few days, that could help us with the days needed for Nym and Myrcella to reach KL later on.

 

So if we give the GC a week in Lys and then 2 weeks to reach the Stormlands, they would arrive on 6-12 (if we assume that Doran's source left Lys the day the GC arrived and took 5 days to reach Sunspear). It would move the fall of GR in The Griffin Reborn to 6-14. Doran's letter, taking 2 or 3 days to arrive, would arrive at Sunspear at 6-16/17. Aegon arrives at GR on 6-19, and the march to SE is planned to start at 6-26. Considering they would travel slower than Haldon's statement for Arianne's party, because they are marching with an army, they would arrive at SE some 4 days later, on 6-30.

This would mean that the GC was sailing through the Stepstones ~6-5 (it would take them more than a day to cross the Stepstones, of course, but this date would fall in the middle). As such, Jon 9 from ADWD needs to be moved up a few weeks, towards the end of the month, as Tycho arrives at CB from Eastwatch with news about GC ships in the Stepstones, indicating that news about GC ships have reached Braavos, after which Tycho travelled to Eastwatch. Based on the distance between Lannisport and Bear Island, it would take about 2 weeks for a ship to travel from the Stepstones to Braavos, and slightly less than 2 weeks for a ship to travel from Braavos to Eastwatch. So about a month, at least, needs to have passed between the GC sailing through the Stepstones and Tycho arriving at CB. (giving them a few days to travel from Eastwatch to CB). So Jon 9 should be moved to ~7-1, and the Jon, Asha, and Theon chapters should be matched accordingly, as Tycho has arrived at Stannis's camp by the end of Asha's last chapter.

I don't think we should assume that Arianne leaves about a day or two after Doran receives the letter. Doran's nature would make him want to think about the letter's contents, but timeline-wise (for the travel time of Nym and Myrcella), Arianne leaving a few weeks after the letter arrives is also necessary. In Jon 9, Tycho mentions that the Redwyne Fleet was sailing through the Broken Arm (so around the same time as the GC was sailing through the Stepstones, considering that news would need to arrive at Braavos first). 

Spoiler

In Arianne I from TWOW, the Redwyne Fleet has passed the Stepstones, and ever since, those waters have been "crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker's Bay. Myrmen, Volantenes, Lyseni, even reavers from the Iron Islands. Some have entered the Sea of Dorne to land men on the south shore of Cape Wrath."

Obviously, some of these reports are concerning the GC (Volantene ships, and the men landing on the shores of Cape Wrath), but (considering that the GC and the Redwyne Fleet would have passed around the same time) some of these would indeed have been ships from Myr and Lys, likely joining the "Lord of the Waters". From the sound of it, they trouble has been there for a while, so giving it about 2 weeks for Arianne to leave Sunspear after the arrival of the letter would seem fitting. That would place the start of Arianne's travels on 7-1. They arrive at Ghost Hill on 7-3, and leave by ship the next day (7-4). The crossing likely takes slightly more than a day, comparing it with Lannisport-Bear Island, so they arrive on 7-5. The evening of 7-5 is the start of Arianne II. They leave the Wheeping Town for Mistwood the next morning (7-6), and that night, Elia get's missing in the cave and Arianne thinks to herself that Nym and Tyene must have reached KL by now, and that, if they have not, they must be close. It would be 39 days between the Watcher and this date.  So still 11 days short of Lost Melnibonean's 50-day minimum, but the difference has shortened by some 2 weeks.

Mistwood is reached 2 days later, on 7-8. They leave the next day (7-9), and take 8 days, arriving at GR on 7-17 (with Chains leaving them on 7-12). Arianne II would thus end on 7-17, and by now, SE has already fallen. At some point in this two weeks period, SE has fallen.

In the epilogue of ADWD, Kevin is aware that Connington is on his way to SE, but not yet that SE has fallen. The raven would taken about 2 days or so to reach KL, and the scouts are not likely to spot Connington's army until they are mid-way, so the epilogue cannot take place any earlier than the date we have for Connington reaching SE (6-30), according to that count. However, we previously established that Arianne II should end about 22 to 24 days after the epilogue takes place. With the former on 7-17, the epilogue should take place around 6-25 according to that count (22 days in between). So taking the middle of that (perhaps the raven was really fast and the scouts had ventured a bit far), we can place the epilogue on 6-28. (additionally, we can give Connington an extra day or two to march to SE, which should bridge most of the difference between 6-25 and 6-30).

Cersei's trial would, accordingly, take place on 7-3.

With The Griffin Reborn preceding or occuring closely to Cersei I from Dance, I think this chapter should be placed on 6-14 (the day GR falls), as Kevan has heard only about the landing of the sellswords, but not about the fall of any castle. Considering that Connington was planning to send a letter to KL proclaiming his claim to GR, it would likely be that KL would learn about the fall of GR not long after it has fallen. It doesn't require the chapter to be moved that much (it is now at 6-10), but it would, I think, fit better. Since the time between Cersei 1 and the epilogue is much bigger now (from 6-14 to 6-30), Cersei's walk of shame can be moved a few days later (I really think that placing it the next day would be too short a time), on 6-19, giving Kevan enough time to visit at least once more before the walk, and Cersei enough time to get used to her new routine afterwards.

 

 

On to the Redwyne Fleet. In AFFC, Cersei 8, (currently on 5-11), Aurane reports that the Redwyne Fleet has likely begun its journey. Ironborn ships are being send into the Whispering Sound. In Samwell 5 (5-21), those ships are in the Whispering Sound, and Oldtown has yet to learn that the Redwyne Fleet has begun its journey.  The ironborn have sacked Ryamsport and taken Vinetown and Starfish Harbor for their own, using them as bases to prey on shipping bound for Oldtown. A fortnight earlier (5-7), they killed the crew of a Tyroshi ship bound for Oldtown, on which they attempted to enter the city.

Spoiler

By Arianne I TWOW, the Redwyne Fleet has finally passed the Stepstones. The winds have been against them for the better part of their journey (so it took them way longer than would have been necessary, due to storms). By Aeron I, the fleet is still not yet at the Arbor, but they are finally closeby enough for Oldtown to dare sending out ships of their own. My draft has Arianne arriving at Ghost Hill at 7-3, at which point the Redwyne Fleet has passed the Stepstones already, likely a week or two before. The battle of the Arbor would thus likely be a week or so after this date, aruond 7-11.. Though this doesn't seem the first time that the Arbor is being attacked (as one such attack has already been mentioned in AFFC, Cersei 8).

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

29 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Doran has only heard about the GC arriving in Lys, not about them leaving. If we assume that they remained at Lys for a few days, that could help us with the days needed for Nym and Myrcella to reach KL later on.

Smart. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Smart. 

But what do you think about the entire draft?

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

But what do you think about the entire draft?

Very smart. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Ok, so I've updated the timeline. The Arianne/Connington/KL/Redwyne fleet concerning chapters have been changed as mentioned in my recent post. I've also updated earlier chapters from 300 AC; Tyrion's trial, and everything that follows from it (too many rows to mention). I also adjusted Cersei 3/Dany3/Tyrion4/Dany4/Dany5/Quentyn2 according to the lunar phases.

 

The only thing I still have to do is adjust the Jon timeline. Jon 9 needs to be moved to ~7-1, as per my earlier post, but that means that more northern chapters need changing, and I haven't gotten to those chapters yet.

 

As always, if you spot any errors, let me know!

[bent branch]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Ok, so I've updated the timeline. The Arianne/Connington/KL/Redwyne fleet concerning chapters have been changed as mentioned in my recent post. I've also updated earlier chapters from 300 AC; Tyrion's trial, and everything that follows from it (too many rows to mention). I also adjusted Cersei 3/Dany3/Tyrion4/Dany4/Dany5/Quentyn2 according to the lunar phases.

 

The only thing I still have to do is adjust the Jon timeline. Jon 9 needs to be moved to ~7-1, as per my earlier post, but that means that more northern chapters need changing, and I haven't gotten to those chapters yet.

 

As always, if you spot any errors, let me know!

Hi, just wanted to say it looks good. The date you came up with was later than I personally wanted, but your reasoning is sound. I accept it. Sorry, it was rude of me to drop that on you and then kind of forget it, but you did a great job as usual.

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

The only thing I still have to do is adjust the Jon timeline. Jon 9 needs to be moved to ~7-1, as per my earlier post, but that means that more northern chapters need changing, and I haven't gotten to those chapters yet.

Please don't forget the work we did in the last thread

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, bent branch said:

Hi, just wanted to say it looks good. The date you came up with was later than I personally wanted, but your reasoning is sound. I accept it. Sorry, it was rude of me to drop that on you and then kind of forget it, but you did a great job as usual.

She always does.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

Hi, just wanted to say it looks good. The date you came up with was later than I personally wanted, but your reasoning is sound. I accept it. Sorry, it was rude of me to drop that on you and then kind of forget it, but you did a great job as usual.

Thanks! And no worries

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Please don't forget the work we did in the last thread

I won't! I was already looking at it yesterday, but I haven't gotten around to making a new draft yet.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Quote

"What word from old Volantis?" Yandry called.

"War," the word came back.

"Where?" Griff shouted. "When?"

"When the year turns," came the answer, "Nyessos and Malaquo go hand in hand, and the elephants show stripes." 

Tyrion V, Dance 18

@Rhaenys_Targaryen Has this been factored into the timeline?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

11 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Tyrion V, Dance 18

@Rhaenys_Targaryen Has this been factored into the timeline?

Westeros counts their years from the date of Aegon's Conquest, which Volantis is highly unlikely to do. For example, the Free Cities count their days differently than Westeros does.

She thought she was still ten, though it was hard to know for certain. The Braavosi counted days differently than they did in Westeros. For all she knew her name day had come and gone.

So without knowing how the new year of Volantis relates to the new year of Westeros (how many months are in between), and without having a year pass in Volantis to match this mentioning of the new year to another one, we can't really use it yet. TWOW or ADOS might change that, though it will depend on whether Volantis plays a bigger role in the story that is to come (with POVs being present there).

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Westeros counts their years from the date of Aegon's Conquest, which Volantis is highly unlikely to do. For example, the Free Cities count their days differently than Westeros does.

She thought she was still ten, though it was hard to know for certain. The Braavosi counted days differently than they did in Westeros. For all she knew her name day had come and gone.

So without knowing how the new year of Volantis relates to the new year of Westeros (how many months are in between), and without having a year pass in Volantis to match this mentioning of the new year to another one, we can't really use it yet. TWOW or ADOS might change that, though it will depend on whether Volantis plays a bigger role in the story that is to come (with POVs being present there).

While they surely number their years differently, they likely have a similar calendar.  

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

13 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

While they surely number their years differently, they likely have a similar calendar.  

Since Tyrion leaves Westeros early in 300 AC, and ADWD ends about half a year, or slightly more, later, it cannot be the new year yet.

I suppose it is possible that Volantis has decided to go to war earlier than originally planned.