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Mental tinfoil: Dothraki/Bravoosi edition


Illyrio Mo'Parties

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Check it out:

Khal Drogo has the biggest khalasar the world had ever seen, and might even have been the fabled Khal of Khals to unite all Dothraki into a single khalasar. We don't know how many other khalasars there are, nor their size, but let's say that Drogo has anywhere from a fifth to half of total Dothraki military strength. And we also suspect that the Dosh Khaleen and Illyrio Mopatis have conspired to give Drogo a false prophecy, for precisely what ends, we can't say - but it seems that marrying Daenerys to birth the Stallion That Mounts The World was part of it. And Daenerys Targaryen at the side of the Khal of Khals gives Illyrio the chance to push the Dothraki into invading Westeros.

The Dothraki are a terror, a barbarian plague whose only redeeming quality is that they can be bought off. They are a threat to all civilised societies, but simultaneously they're a necessity: they are the single largest procurer of slaves for the enormous slave trade that runs from the Free Cities to Qarth and further east. West of that bloody big mountain range whose name I don't remember, the Dothraki are the biggest single link in the slave economy.

(The second biggest might be Volantis (or perhaps Slaver's Bay). One interesting thing we notice about Volantis is that they don't mind provoking a war with Westeros: when Aegon and co. need ships, Volantis gladly provides them.)

Illyrio himself appears to be involved in that slave economy, too.

Anyway, we know how the story goes: Illyrio tricks Drogo into heading west and defying the Dothraki taboo against sailing, and if it hadn't all gone tits up the largest khalasar in history would've been on some ships. (I guess ships sourced in Volantis, but that's by-the-by.)

Quick question: who's the undisputed naval superpower in this world?

Another quick question: how does that superpower feel about slavery?

Could Illyrio - knowingly or not - be part of a Bravoosi plot to eliminate the Dothraki and smash the slave trade, by luring the Dothraki off the open fields, where they have the advantage, and on to the sea, where they can be crushed and left to drown... possibly also smashing the Volantene fleet in the process, thus enabling Braavos (and perhaps their new Westerosi allies) to invade and free the slaves, thus removing their only serious rival among the Free Cities and making western Essos a slave-free zone, before heading east to smash Slaver's Bay and then north to finish off the Dothraki, thus eliminating the slave trade from the known world?

Probably not.

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1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Check it out:

Khal Drogo has the biggest khalasar the world had ever seen,

Eh.. no. It was probably the biggest khalasar during the timeline, but there might have been some bigger ones. Also there are likely two scores of khals small and great, if not more.

 

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

And we also suspect that the Dosh Khaleen and Illyrio Mopatis have conspired to give Drogo a false prophecy, for precisely what ends, we can't say -

Who suspects that? I don't think the Dothraki are easily manipulable, no one in Essos has that leverage. As far as we know, the Dothraki have been never used in behalf of another power in warfare.

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

The Dothraki are a terror, a barbarian plague whose only redeeming quality is that they can be bought off.

No. This in incorrect. They receive gifts but they can choose otherwise. They really don't care and they hold in contempt the rest of the population of the cities.  What the Free Cities do is just appeasement.

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

They are a threat to all civilised societies, but simultaneously they're a necessity: they are the single largest procurer of slaves for the enormous slave trade that runs from the Free Cities to Qarth and further east. West of that bloody big mountain range whose name I don't remember, the Dothraki are the biggest single link in the slave economy.

This baffles me a bit. After the Century of Blood, the Dothraki are the major military power in Essos, only diminished by their internal division.  Khal fight khal, more often than not. But after 300 years they should have ran out of sources of slaves. For example who would like to live east of the Rhoyne?, why do the lamb men still live south of the Dothraki Sea?. Etc.

Do not forget pirates and corsairs who also are important in providing slave.

But indeed, Dany will need to work with the Dothraki if she really intends to end slavery in Western Essos.

 

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

(The second biggest might be Volantis (or perhaps Slaver's Bay). One interesting thing we notice about Volantis is that they don't mind provoking a war with Westeros: when Aegon and co. need ships, Volantis gladly provides them.)

The cities in Slaver Bay seems to provide specialized slaves, and buy "raw material" (I hate to speak in these terms). Same with Lys. Volantis has a large number of slaves, but most are from the common sort.

 

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Illyrio himself appears to be involved in that slave economy, too.

He is, even more than we know

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Anyway, we know how the story goes: Illyrio tricks Drogo into heading west and defying the Dothraki taboo against sailing, and if it hadn't all gone tits up the largest khalasar in history would've been on some ships. (I guess ships sourced in Volantis, but that's by-the-by.)

Trick is not necessarily the right word. And Drogo has other plans first. It seems that he wanted to conquest the cities in the east first and then head west. Dothraki have their own way to do things.

The Free Cities are unconcerned about Westeros. They weren't concerned during the Blackfyre rebellions, they will not be now. Westeros on the other hand is not interested in Essos. The internal balance of power in Westeros does not allow extended expeditions outside their border.

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Quick question: who's the undisputed naval superpower in this world?

Another quick question: how does that superpower feel about slavery?

Angry but somewhat helpless. Braavos does not have the power to end slavery in its own. They forced Pentos to abolish slavery but they cannot enforce it fully. There are slaves in Pentos, probably not as many as in Volantis, enough of them.

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Could Illyrio - knowingly or not - be part of a Bravoosi plot to eliminate the Dothraki and smash the slave trade, by luring the Dothraki off the open fields, where they have the advantage, and on to the sea, where they can be crushed and left to drown... possibly also smashing the Volantene fleet in the process, thus enabling Braavos (and perhaps their new Westerosi allies) to invade and free the slaves, thus removing their only serious rival among the Free Cities and making western Essos a slave-free zone, before heading east to smash Slaver's Bay and then north to finish off the Dothraki, thus eliminating the slave trade from the known world?

No. There are too many Dothraki to end the source of slavery in this way. There are also pirates and corsairs.

And Braavos does not have the power to face Myr, Tyrosh, Lys and Volantis together.

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5 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

The Dothraki... can be bought off.

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

No. This in incorrect. They receive gifts but they can choose otherwise. They really don't care and they hold in contempt the rest of the population of the cities.  What the Free Cities do is just appeasement.

Potato, puh-TAH-toe.

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Eh.. no. It was probably the biggest khalasar during the timeline, but there might have been some bigger ones. Also there are likely two scores of khals small and great, if not more.

Perhaps. But if Khal Drogo successfully unites them all, as per the Dosh Khaleen's prophecy... or even if he unites most of them. Taking out a big chunk, even five or ten percent, of total Dothraki strength could be all the difference in a war.

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Who suspects that? I don't think the Dothraki are easily manipulable, no one in Essos has that leverage. As far as we know, the Dothraki have been never used in behalf of another power in warfare.

Well, I do. I forget where I read it. But it stands to reason, as does the idea that the Free Cities manipulate the Dothraki and use them against each other. In fact, we see this happening in ADWD... at least I think we do. I can't find the reference, but I'm sure there's some khalasar on the move, part of either the pro- or anti-Dany alliance.

But it's ludicrous to think that no khal has ever fought on behalf of any other ally before. Speaking of ludicrous:

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

This baffles me a bit. After the Century of Blood, the Dothraki are the major military power in Essos, only diminished by their internal division.  Khal fight khal, more often than not. But after 300 years they should have ran out of sources of slaves. For example who would like to live east of the Rhoyne?, why do the lamb men still live south of the Dothraki Sea?. Etc.

Yes, it's one of the many flaws in the worldbuilding. Apparently the Dothraki are the only faction in all Essos to maintain a standing army, with everybody else relying on mercenaries and diplomacy - for 300 yrs. That's crazy.

And the Dothraki have never seized any of these other territories for themselves. Why exactly would they accept some paltry tribute from a weak enemy when they know they could easily destroy them and take everything?

And why, as you say, would anybody live anywhere in Essos outside of the protection of either the khals themselves or the Free Cities? We saw what happened in Westeros when there was war in the countryside: all the peasants flooded into the cities. Why isn't this happening on a continent-wide scale in Essos? Where are all the refugees?

There ought to be entire nations on the move, heading west for refuge, and since these people are the source of conquest and plunder, the Dothraki ought to be following them. These refugees ought to be affecting the politics of the Free Cities - perhaps gaining political power and deciding to raise an army and fight the khalasars. Either way, the Dothraki ought to end up encroaching onto the Free Cities themselves, and if there's nobody left elsewhere to conquer, then there's not enough gold in the world to buy them off with.

It doesn't make any sense, but then, it's just a book.

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

He is, even more than we know

Would you mind elaborating on this please? How can you be sure of something that's outside what we currently know?

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Trick is not necessarily the right word. And Drogo has other plans first. It seems that he wanted to conquest the cities in the east first and then head west. Dothraki have their own way to do things.

Trick is totally the right word. He staged an assassination attempt in order to bait Drogo west. And it worked, too. (Plus, if Drogo's marriage was Illyrio's plan in the first place, and he says as much, then that must've been some trick as well.)

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

The Free Cities are unconcerned about Westeros. They weren't concerned during the Blackfyre rebellions, they will not be now. Westeros on the other hand is not interested in Essos. The internal balance of power in Westeros does not allow extended expeditions outside their border.

This is something else unrealistic, if you ask me. It's a narrow sea. The clue's in the name: it's not very wide.

I mean, is it wider than the English Channel? Because that didn't stop England and France from interfering in each other's affairs for a thousand years.

Is it wider than the Mediterranean? Because that wasn't wide enough to make Rome and Carthage leave each other alone.

Especially prior to the Targaryens, and especially in the Century of Blood, I find it very strange that there was nothing but peace and trade across that sea. Even after the Targaryens took over, you might expect Dorne to reach out to the Free Cities for some backup. I can see why the Free Cities would turn them down, but still.

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

No. There are too many Dothraki to end the source of slavery in this way. There are also pirates and corsairs.

But to weaken slavery?

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

And Braavos does not have the power to face Myr, Tyrosh, Lys and Volantis together.

Perhaps, but if they defeated Volantis first, say with a surprise attack at sea, where Braavos apparently has the advantage, and then by inciting a slave revolt...

Would Myr, Tyrosh and Lys be willing to face off against Braavos, Volantis, and whatever other allies they can bring in? (I presume Westeros and perhaps Pentos and maybe Lorath, Qohor, Ibben...) And what if Braavos managed to persuade one or more of those cities to join their team?

 

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I think it's more likely that Illyrio's target was Volantis, and if there is a Braavos-Illyrio alliance I think that would be the natural target.  Volantis is probably the biggest slave buyer and is the last real Valyrian stronghold.  Both would make them natural antagonists to Braavos.  

Let's take a look at Illyrio's back up plan.  He tells Tyrion that he expects Dany to head to Volantis before she would set sail for Westeros.  So he has the Golden Company camped outside of Volantis walls.  In the meantime another Dothraki horde is traveling up and down the east bank of the Rhoyne, attracting the attention of the Volantis soldiers.

Then Volantis in the meantime is debating about going to war with Dany over her actions in Slaver's Bay.  And the Red Priests of Volantis are telling the mainly slave populace of the outer walls that Dany is their coming savior and they should go to war with Volantis if they would oppose her.  And in this political climate Illyrio is planning on Dany with meeting up with the Golden Company outside of Volantis' walls before they set sail for Westeros?  Clearly this is a recipe for an out war war in Volantis.  On one side is a Dothraki horde, on the other is the Golden Company, and within the city we have the red priests and a possible slave revolt.

Either Illyrio is very naive as to the political landscape of Volantis, or he may be trying to instigate this war.  Remember, he says that he has friends that he is indebted to.  We know that Illyrio had a red priest at Dany's wedding shower to Drogo.  Another "friend" may be Braavos.  The natural enemy of both would be the Valyrian rulers inside of the black walls of Volantis.

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I like this theory, but remember that Pentos historically hasn't gotten along with Braavos. Might I suggest a slightly different approach: Illyrio is trying to manipulate the Braavosi into a situation where they'll be facing off against the Dothraki, Volantis, Slaver's Bay, Myr, Lys, Tyrosh... so that Pentos will finally be free of Braavos' restrictions and be able to become a great power in the Narrow Sea again?

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1 hour ago, Maester of Valyria said:

I like this theory, but remember that Pentos historically hasn't gotten along with Braavos. Might I suggest a slightly different approach: Illyrio is trying to manipulate the Braavosi into a situation where they'll be facing off against the Dothraki, Volantis, Slaver's Bay, Myr, Lys, Tyrosh... so that Pentos will finally be free of Braavos' restrictions and be able to become a great power in the Narrow Sea again?

Remember that Illyrio's marriage with Serra put him on the outs with the Prince of Pentos so it seems unlikely that Illyrio's plans are necessarily in line with Pentos' interests

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6 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Well, I do. I forget where I read it. But it stands to reason, as does the idea that the Free Cities manipulate the Dothraki and use them against each other. In fact, we see this happening in ADWD... at least I think we do. I can't find the reference, but I'm sure there's some khalasar on the move, part of either the pro- or anti-Dany alliance.

As far as I can recall, no Dothraki khalasar has fought on behalf on any of the cities. For that they have the sellswords. Also, the wars between the Free Cities are not anymore for dominance of one over the other, but for land or passages, etc.

I know what you refer. Some people speculated that Khal Pono and Khal Jaqho are acting on behalf of Illyrio to force Dany west. It doesn't make much sense. There are logistical problems, but we know that Dothraki do the things in their own time and own way.

Dothraki may be pissed at Dany, or not.

6 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Yes, it's one of the many flaws in the worldbuilding. Apparently the Dothraki are the only faction in all Essos to maintain a standing army, with everybody else relying on mercenaries and diplomacy - for 300 yrs. That's crazy.

This is incorrect. Some Free Cities maintain standing armies. Volantis seem to have a large slave army for example. They are sending anywhere between 20k to 50k against Dany and many thousands more to ward off the Dothraki.

They use the sellswords to fight for non-existential threats like agriculture land, river and sea passages, etc.

The Dothraki cannot be seen as a standing army. Probably every able male is a fighter (among other things).

6 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

And the Dothraki have never seized any of these other territories for themselves. Why exactly would they accept some paltry tribute from a weak enemy when they know they could easily destroy them and take everything?

Well, they go all the way to Pentos whenever they like. They don't care about territories, they are nomadic people. Accepting gifts may be a good compromise between a bloody battle and earning something.

6 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

And why, as you say, would anybody live anywhere in Essos outside of the protection of either the khals themselves or the Free Cities? We saw what happened in Westeros when there was war in the countryside: all the peasants flooded into the cities. Why isn't this happening on a continent-wide scale in Essos? Where are all the refugees?

Yep, there are some oddities there. It seems that contrary to Westeros, there are no towns in Essos close to the Dothraki radius of action. Tyrio describes everything mostly deserted of people. Apparently rich people have states or latifundium, probably manned by slaves. But having the lamb men being pray of Dothraki raids for centuries is not very realistic.

6 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

There ought to be entire nations on the move, heading west for refuge, and since these people are the source of conquest and plunder, the Dothraki ought to be following them. These refugees ought to be affecting the politics of the Free Cities - perhaps gaining political power and deciding to raise an army and fight the khalasars. Either way, the Dothraki ought to end up encroaching onto the Free Cities themselves, and if there's nobody left elsewhere to conquer, then there's not enough gold in the world to buy them off with.

Well, many kingdoms fell under the Dothraki. Sarnor from top of my head. The Rhoyne was still very populated before the Dothraki.

 

7 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

This is something else unrealistic, if you ask me. It's a narrow sea. The clue's in the name: it's not very wide.

I mean, is it wider than the English Channel? Because that didn't stop England and France from interfering in each other's affairs for a thousand years.

Is it wider than the Mediterranean? Because that wasn't wide enough to make Rome and Carthage leave each other alone.

Especially prior to the Targaryens, and especially in the Century of Blood, I find it very strange that there was nothing but peace and trade across that sea. Even after the Targaryens took over, you might expect Dorne to reach out to the Free Cities for some backup. I can see why the Free Cities would turn them down, but still.

It is probably similar to the Mediterranean. First, you need to recall that the Valyrian empire didn't seem interested in Westeros for whatever reason, and nobody in Westeros would like to get involved against the Valyrian. Then you have the Century of Blood when the remnants of the Valyrian empire killed each other. Also remember that Aegon the Conqueror intervened there before turning west.

The balance of power afterwards in Westeros has been always precarious. Anyone who invest too much in expeditionary adventures is at risk to lose a lot back at home (although can win a lot too). Think on Roose acting in both ways with Rob. This is also why Robert never sailed to conquest the Summer Isles and kept Jalabhar Xho waiting forever. There was little to gain there.

It goes in the other way too. One city cannot hope to conquest Westeros and the other cities would use the opportunity to increase their influence.

7 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Perhaps, but if they defeated Volantis first, say with a surprise attack at sea, where Braavos apparently has the advantage, and then by inciting a slave revolt...

Would Myr, Tyrosh and Lys be willing to face off against Braavos, Volantis, and whatever other allies they can bring in? (I presume Westeros and perhaps Pentos and maybe Lorath, Qohor, Ibben...) And what if Braavos managed to persuade one or more of those cities to join their team?

How can Braavos defeat Volantis without defeating Lys first. The distance is also very large. They need to make stops.

Myr, Lys or Tyrosh cannot face Braavos individually but together they should be strong enough. And Volantis is larger than any of them. It is beyond the power of Braavos to end slavery in Essos. Hell, they cannot even fully enforce the prohibition in Pentos!

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4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Remember that Illyrio's marriage with Serra put him on the outs with the Prince of Pentos so it seems unlikely that Illyrio's plans are necessarily in line with Pentos' interests

Unless he wants back in the big boys' room. Now I'm getting a mental image of Illyrio singing "The Room Where it Happens" and dancing around a stage. He's surprisingly light on his feet for such a large fellow.

@Illyrio Mo'Parties I love how you've got this whole thing and then end with "probably not." :D

 

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11 hours ago, Maester of Valyria said:

I like this theory, but remember that Pentos historically hasn't gotten along with Braavos. Might I suggest a slightly different approach: Illyrio is trying to manipulate the Braavosi into a situation where they'll be facing off against the Dothraki, Volantis, Slaver's Bay, Myr, Lys, Tyrosh... so that Pentos will finally be free of Braavos' restrictions and be able to become a great power in the Narrow Sea again?

10 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Remember that Illyrio's marriage with Serra put him on the outs with the Prince of Pentos so it seems unlikely that Illyrio's plans are necessarily in line with Pentos' interests

I don't think it's impossible that Illyrio is the unwitting agent of Braavos in this scheme. Let's say Illyrio has this plan, which benefits him in some way, and the Bravoosi get wind of it. Why not just let it unfold, and then swoop in with your navy at the crucial moment?

Blizzardborn - well, of course. :cheers:There's no way this is happening - but wouldn't it be cool if it was?

 

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On 27/02/2017 at 8:43 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Remember that Illyrio's marriage with Serra put him on the outs with the Prince of Pentos so it seems unlikely that Illyrio's plans are necessarily in line with Pentos' interests

Hmm, true. Although as a businessman, , Illyrio might be pragmatic enough to put his own feelings aside?

You're probably right, it was just a thought I had.

There's also this:

On 28/02/2017 at 6:57 AM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I don't think it's impossible that Illyrio is the unwitting agent of Braavos in this scheme. Let's say Illyrio has this plan, which benefits him in some way, and the Bravoosi get wind of it. Why not just let it unfold, and then swoop in with your navy at the crucial moment?

 

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