All Men Must Die But Randyll's Death Is Very Close

[rotting sea cow]

On 3/1/2017 at 3:58 AM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Looking forward to another day. Sounds interesting.

 

Hi. Unfortunately I don't have a great deal of time these days, but my rationale is related to what kind of events are required to complete the respective arcs (here, Dorne, Tyrells, Cersei, Aegon's team). A swift victory makes everything more difficult and maybe less dramatic.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Connington has opposed Morrigen in the recent past...

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Yet when they parted, Jon Connington did not go to the sept. Instead his steps led him up to the roof of the east tower, the tallest at Griffin's Roost. As he climbed he remembered past ascents—a hundred with his lord father, who liked to stand and look out over woods and crags and sea and know that all he saw belonged to House Connington, and one (only one!) with Rhaegar Targaryen. Prince Rhaegar was returning from Dorne, and he and his escort had lingered here a fortnight. He was so young then, and I was younger. Boys, the both of us. At the welcoming feast, the prince had taken up his silver-stringed harp and played for them. A song of love and doom, Jon Connington recalled, and every woman in the hall was weeping when he put down the harp. Not the men, of course. Particularly not his own father, whose only love was land. Lord Armond Connington spent the entire evening trying to win the prince to his side in his dispute with Lord Morrigen.

The Griffin Reborn, Dance 61

[Lost Melnibonean]

Oops

[Lost Melnibonean]

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The light of the torches made a fiery blaze of Ronnet Connington's long red hair and beard. "Send me against my uncle, and I will bring you back his head, and the head of this false dragon too."

...

Mace Tyrell was speaking. "We shall deal with your uncle and his feigned boy in due time." The new King's Hand was seated on an oaken throne carved in the shape of a hand, an absurd vanity his lordship had produced the day Ser Kevan agreed to grant him the office he coveted. "You will bide here until we are ready to march. Then you shall have the chance to prove your loyalty."

Epilogue, Dance

Ronnet will march with Mace to Storm’s End.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

BrydenBfish made a compelling case why in makes most sense to have Mace leading the tyrell army himself. The Last storm indeed foreshadows the way the battle will play out, and the mud will have a key role here, like in Agincourt. probably Mace won´t know how to handle elephants either. 

 

That said, i don´t think Randyl will be leading the Van. Someone must stay behind to rule KL.

This is my take: after Kevan and Pycelle die, Mace will have the mayority of the Small council, therefore he will be able to take the regency (like he wanted back in AFFC). He will in turn name Tarly as hand of the king. one of the first orders of business will be to 

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I shall recapture it after my daughter’s innocence is proved.”

How can you recapture it when you have never captured it to begin with? “I understand, my lord, but—”

Tyrell did not let him finish. “These charges against my daughter are filthy lies. I ask again, why must we play out this mummer’s farce? Have King Tommen declare my daughter innocent, ser, and put an end to the foolishness here and now.”

Do that, and the whispers will follow Margaery the rest of her life. “No man doubts your daughter’s innocence, my lord,” Ser Kevan lied, “but His High Holiness insists upon a trial.”

Lord Randyll snorted. “What have we become, when kings and high lords must dance to the twittering of sparrows?”

“We have foes on every hand, Lord Tarly,” Ser Kevan reminded him. “Stannis in the north, ironmen in the west, sellswords in the south. Defy the High Septon, and we will have blood running in the gutters of King’s Landing as well. If we are seen to be going against the gods, it will only drive the pious into the arms of one or the other of these would-be usurpers.”

Mace Tyrell remained unmoved.

 

 

One he believes his daughter to be safe, he will march his army against Aegon. Leaving someone in charge of the city. The situation will be caothic. and once the news of the Tyrell defeat in both stormalands and the south against euron reaches KL...:

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“Margaery stands accused as well. Her and those cousins of hers. How is it that the sparrows freed her and not me?”

“Randyll Tarly insisted. He was the first to reach King’s Landing when this storm broke, and he brought his army with him. The Tyrell girls will still be tried, but the case against them is weak, His High Holiness admits. All of the men named as the queen’s lovers have denied the accusation or recanted, save for your maimed singer, who appears to be half-mad. So the High Septon handed the girls over to Tarly’s custody and Lord Randyll swore a holy oath to deliver them for trial when the time comes.”

 

And then we will have Margs trial... which of course will go very badly for her ending the Tyrell regime and whatever is left of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. the Sand snakes will kill tommen. 

Ending TWOW, Jaime will return with whatever remains of the lannister army from the riverlands, so that Grrm can unfold the third and last act, with Mad Queen Cersei blowing the city and Jaime the valonqar in ADOS.

 

[Lion of the West]

I realize that Lord Tarly is not beloved and in fact gets more negative comments and evil hype than he deserves but I don't think that means that he's going to die very soon. In fact given the similarity between the Bolton and Tarly coat of arms I think its a subtle hint that his role will be to turn on Mace for the benefit of House Lannister and reap, perhaps not lasting but anyway, rewards for that treason towards the Tyrells. Just like Lord Bolton has with the exception that I think that while the Boltons will kill each other, its and open question if Roose or Ramsay kills the other first, the Randyll and Dickon may well go down together as the end of House Tarly.

[Lost Melnibonean]

22 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

I realize that Lord Tarly is not beloved and in fact gets more negative comments and evil hype than he deserves but I don't think that means that he's going to die very soon. 

I don't believe I suggested that it did. 

[Lion of the West]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't believe I suggested that it did. 

Forgive my crude expression then. I didn't mean to adress you specifically but rather a general "Randyll Tarly is the most misogynist person on Planetos and he and Dickon deserves to die, NOW, for it!" attitude I have percieved to have seen in the past. It was perhaps crude of me to throw out it like that, so if you took offense from it, I apologize.

[Lost Melnibonean]

52 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Forgive my crude expression then. I didn't mean to adress you specifically but rather a general "Randyll Tarly is the most misogynist person on Planetos and he and Dickon deserves to die, NOW, for it!" attitude I have percieved to have seen in the past. It was perhaps crude of me to throw out it like that, so if you took offense from it, I apologize.

No offense taken at all. I was just clarifying that my theory doesn't rely on Tarly being a good guy or a bad guy. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

As discussed in the OP, the field will be reversed in the Next Storm, with Aegon's Hand marching north from Storm's End and the opposition force marching south from Bronzegate. 

And as we learned from The Conquest...

Aegon’s foes also found themselves plagued by other enemies. As Argilac the Arrogant gathered his swords at Storm’s End, pirates from the Stepstones descended on the shores of Cape Wrath to take advantage of their absence, and Dornish raiding parties came boiling out of the Red Mountains to sweep across the marches. 

So, perhaps the Lord of the Waters will join the fight for Aegon as well, or maybe the pirate king will join Aegon in the aftermath of the battle. 

Of course the Lord of the Waters is Aurane Waters, the natural uncle of Monterys Velaryon, who became Lord of the Tides when his father--Aurane's half brother--was killed at the Blackwater. 

Perhaps, Aegon will offer to legitimize the Bastard of Driftmark, and name him Lord of the Tides in return for his support? 

[chrisdaw]

I don't know that he will die because deaths in foreshadowing can just mean defeat in the series, history tends to dispose of characters after use. But I agree he will be leading the force and will be defeated, it will be seen as the beginning of Aegon's conquest II and thus House Tarly's words "First to Battle" gain their relevance in the series contemporary.

 

[The Mother of The Others]

We fell into Tarly's trap here.    He leaks chapters about his demise to lure you in, then 8 years from now when the book comes out he'll spring the trap and everyone who rushed in to read of his death will receive the fig real hard.    <-- (That's what Dickon said).

[Sigella]

On 2017-02-28 at 6:18 PM, Dorian Martell's son said:

I always thought the Tyrells were the "Friends in the reach" 

I always took it for the Hightowers

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Randyll may be a jerk , he is certainly a martinet , but I doubt that both he and Dickon is going to die . Sorry fans of Samwell . 

[Ygrain]

Given his disdain for women, I think it is a safe bet that Tarly would choose fAegon over Dany. If he is indeed defeated, I wonder if there might be another piece of the puzzle of his fate in JonCon's PoV - JonCon feels that it was his leniency at the Stoney Sept that, in fact, got Rhaegar killed, and I don't think he would refrain from butchery this time if he thought the situation demanded it. Given that Tarly's reputation as a war commander is well known, JonCon wouldn't let him escape regardless of how many others needed to be killed along with him. For example, Connington might order to burn down a holdfast where the two had taken refuge, and thus do what he wasn't willing to do at the Stoney Sept. 

(abomination spoiler)

Spoiler

In this light, Dany dracarysing Randyll and Dickon might actually be a replacement of such a scene, though I don't think that Connington would have Dickon openly executed.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Given his disdain for women, I think it is a safe bet that Tarly would choose fAegon over Dany. If he is indeed defeated, I wonder if there might be another piece of the puzzle of his fate in JonCon's PoV - JonCon feels that it was his leniency at the Stoney Sept that, in fact, got Rhaegar killed, and I don't think he would refrain from butchery this time if he thought the situation demanded it. Given that Tarly's reputation as a war commander is well known, JonCon wouldn't let him escape regardless of how many others needed to be killed along with him. For example, Connington might order to burn down a holdfast where the two had taken refuge, and thus do what he wasn't willing to do at the Stoney Sept. 

(abomination spoiler)

  Hide contents

In this light, Dany dracarysing Randyll and Dickon might actually be a replacement of such a scene, though I don't think that Connington would have Dickon openly executed.

 

I was thinking the same thing when I watched it. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Jon Connington will take Heartsbane for Aegon. Although Samwell has taken the black there might be an opportunity for him to have the Mance's son, held out as his own, legitimized and made lord of Horn Hill with the return of Heartsbane in exchange for House Tarly's support of Aegon. 

[Ygrain]

I don't think I can see Sam playing a game of thrones but I do like the idea of Mance's son getting to inherit Horn Hill! - You see, Aegon won't be the only one to be able to pass a legitimization decree :-)

[Therae]

@Lost Melnibonean @Ygrain

Funny old world, innit, that it could come to Sam passing off Mance’s legitimate son, who’s been swapped with Craster’s also legitimate son (he does marry all his daughters, after all), as his own bastard so he can get him legitimized.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

I have an honest question, are there these close 1:1 parellel mirroring of ancient battles and battles in our books currently available? I cannot think of one. Yes Robb and Daeron share some common traits, but far from mirroring. There are some examples of similar scenarios, but I cannot think of a single example of exact mirroring like this and many posts on this site suggest will happen/are happening.