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36 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

He would have been conceived after the tourney of Harrenhal, possibly when Brandon went to KL. And there is a different need to lie about Jon's parentage. Jon could be seen as the legitimate heir to WF as Brandon's son, and this would disrupt the Tully-Stark alliance because Cat's children would no longer be the heirs to WF. So B+A=J cannot be disregarded entirely...

Here's the nail in the coffin: Per GRRM himself, we know Daenerys Targaryen was born about 8-9 months after the sack of KL (end of the war), and GRRM said Jon is 8-9 months older than DT. That means Jon would was conceived at least 3-4 months into a year long war, at which point we know Brandon Stark was already dead since his execution predates Robert's Rebellion.
 

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8 hours ago, Praetor Xyn said:

It's so obvious and cliche it'd be the opposite of what GRRM normally does.

I don't think that this is correct. GRRM uses way too many tropes and he has used many cliches. The *hidden prince* might be obvious, as you call it, for people who overanalyse the books but it isn't that obvious for casual readers.

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14 hours ago, JoeMama said:

Here's the nail in the coffin: Per GRRM himself, we know Daenerys Targaryen was born about 8-9 months after the sack of KL (end of the war), and GRRM said Jon is 8-9 months older than DT. That means Jon would was conceived at least 3-4 months into a year long war, at which point we know Brandon Stark was already dead since his execution predates Robert's Rebellion.
 

No. I assume you are referring to the July 11, 1999 SSM, but please let me know if you are referring to something else. GRRM did not say Dany was born 8-9 months after the sack of KL. That's what the fan asking the question assumed. GRRM responded by saying that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany. He was clarifying that the chapters were not chronological, since if they were, Jon's 15th name day would have been before Dany's 14th, but really it wasn't.

If B+A=J and R+L=D, then Jon would have been born about 9 months into the war, and Dany would have been born at ToJ 8-9 months later, according to the SSM. And if you think I'm crazy, here's the end of that SSM:

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar. -SSM 7/11/99

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Missed quite a bit because my capacity to absorb and deduce information is proporitionally tied to how much I'm invested in the the POV character or the overall plot of the chapter in which said information and hints are revealed.

So stuff like the Gravedigger, the Sailor's Wife etc went over my head because I could hardly be bothered with the chapters. Similarly I don't give a rat's behind about who the Polka Dotted Grace is or who leads the harpies, so I haven't really picked up any clues on that. This goes so far that I frequently forget the names or existence of side characters in plot threads I'm not invested in.

Something in a plot thread I was invested in that went completely over my head until pointed out, however, was the Tyrell's involvement in the Purple Wedding. I was simply so charmed by the beautiful, flowery Tyrells that I did not think them capable of any harm.

On 01/03/2017 at 7:26 PM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

If you find someone who says they knew it was Petyr and Lysa (before the reveal) you have found yourself a liar.

Of course those are things that a reader is simply not able to deduce at the beginning (or at all) because we are not given all the information until the reveal. Similarly to the reveal that Illyrio might not have had Viserys' and Daenerys' best interest in mind when he set up their "alliance" with the Dothraki or that he was working with Varys to help Faegon.

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1 hour ago, Orphalesion said:

Of course those are things that a reader is simply not able to deduce at the beginning (or at all) because we are not given all the information until the reveal. Similarly to the reveal that Illyrio might not have had Viserys' and Daenerys' best interest in mind when he set up their "alliance" with the Dothraki or that he was working with Varys to help Faegon.

I knew Illyrio-Varys were up to something, from the beginning, but I really didn't figure it out until Dance. Still, the sharp, careful reader should have known much earlier that they were plotting to put Aegon or an imposter on the throne. 

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I missed Frey Pies on my first read. I always find that a good thing in a book- stuff you miss the first time that you can enjoy discovering on a reread. There are a ton of smaller details that got past me as well.

I also missed R+L=J on my first few reads, but it did strike me on a re-read. I remember talking to my fellow book-reader friends in person about it, and that was before I discovered the forum. (I think before ASOS was released, too.) I personally don't see it as a cop-out or lazy trope because there's no guarantee that Jon, if he is who the theory claims, will automatically get to be king (if there's a Westeros to be king of when the smoke clears/snow melts). I think it's more important that Jon finds out about his parentage to be secure in his own identity and acknowledge what his father, mother, and uncle did for him rather than to gain a throne for himself. That and my inner glee at the idea that Honest Ned Stark fooled everybody.  

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12 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

No. I assume you are referring to the July 11, 1999 SSM, but please let me know if you are referring to something else. GRRM did not say Dany was born 8-9 months after the sack of KL. That's what the fan asking the question assumed. GRRM responded by saying that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany. He was clarifying that the chapters were not chronological, since if they were, Jon's 15th name day would have been before Dany's 14th, but really it wasn't.

If B+A=J and R+L=D, then Jon would have been born about 9 months into the war, and Dany would have been born at ToJ 8-9 months later, according to the SSM. And if you think I'm crazy, here's the end of that SSM:

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar. -SSM 7/11/99

It's already established in the text that Dany was born nine months after the Sack, during a massive storm that no one was going to think happened in a different month, let alone a potentially different year, because it was what we modern folk would call one for the record books.

Jon being Brandon's son would make him a few months older than Robb, who was convinced after the war had started, and that means Ned would never have been able to convince Catelyn that Jon was in fact conceived after Robb was. The one fact that B+Anyone=J supporters always forget is that Jon has to be Robb's age or younger for Ned's cover story to work. No way Catelyn mistook a 15 month old (probably older actually) as being younger than her 12 month old. Then of course there's the fact that there would be ZERO reason for Ned not to tell Catelyn that he was never unfaithful and that Jon was actually Brandon's son. Not at first of course, but after 15 years of marriage, five children together, and falling in love with each other? It doesn't wash.

Jon can't be born nine months into the war anyway, because he would have to have to been conceived prior to Brandon's trip to KL. The war started a month or more after Brandon's death--probably or more. This is based on ravenmail + travel times to get Rickard and all the fathers of Brandon's buddies to KL for the "trials" and time for the raven or messenger to reach Jon Arryn and him to send his refusal. Then of course Jon calls his banners and it takes a couple of weeks to get everybody assembled. Ned calls his banners. Robert calls his banners. This all takes time.

Let's say a week for the raven to get from KL to Winterfell, another two weeks for Rickard to get everyone together, and three weeks to get to KL. That's five weeks. The "trials" could be done easily within a couple of days, as if Brandon and Rickard are guilty then the rest are by default. But lets give them a week, cause that's a lot of people to kill. We're now up to six weeks. 

Add a week at least for Aerys' order for Ned and Robert's heads to get to the Vale, and Jon to write back hell no. Then two weeks for Jon to call his banners, and that much plus at least one more week for Ned and Robert to call theirs. That's ten weeks between Brandon's dumbass act and the start of the war, without including time to get the armies consolidated and battles begun. So Jon would now be an extra 2 1/2 months older than Robb, which puts him somewhere in the vicinity of 5-6 months older than Robb. That means Catelyn has to believe that Jon at 17-18 months is younger than her 12 month old. The only way that works is if Jon has a developmental disability, which no doubt would still be evident at the start of the series. And Jon clearly has no developmental disability.

You're missing something about Ashara, mainly the part at the end that you left unbolded. Ashara was dismissed from court at some point, possibly due to pregnancy. There's no reason to mention her being able to leave Starfall during the war unless she was AT Starfall during the war. And since Brandon wasn't at court prior to the war except to commit treason, and he was dead before the start of the war, the only chance they have to hook up is at Harrenhal, which would make Jon even older and Ned's cover story absolutely impossible.

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9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

It's already established in the text that Dany was born nine months after the Sack, during a massive storm that no one was going to think happened in a different month, let alone a potentially different year, because it was what we modern folk would call one for the record books.

Jon being Brandon's son would make him a few months older than Robb, who was convinced after the war had started, and that means Ned would never have been able to convince Catelyn that Jon was in fact conceived after Robb was. The one fact that B+Anyone=J supporters always forget is that Jon has to be Robb's age or younger for Ned's cover story to work. No way Catelyn mistook a 15 month old (probably older actually) as being younger than her 12 month old. Then of course there's the fact that there would be ZERO reason for Ned not to tell Catelyn that he was never unfaithful and that Jon was actually Brandon's son. Not at first of course, but after 15 years of marriage, five children together, and falling in love with each other? It doesn't wash.

Jon can't be born nine months into the war anyway, because he would have to have to been conceived prior to Brandon's trip to KL. The war started a month or more after Brandon's death--probably or more. This is based on ravenmail + travel times to get Rickard and all the fathers of Brandon's buddies to KL for the "trials" and time for the raven or messenger to reach Jon Arryn and him to send his refusal. Then of course Jon calls his banners and it takes a couple of weeks to get everybody assembled. Ned calls his banners. Robert calls his banners. This all takes time.

Let's say a week for the raven to get from KL to Winterfell, another two weeks for Rickard to get everyone together, and three weeks to get to KL. That's five weeks. The "trials" could be done easily within a couple of days, as if Brandon and Rickard are guilty then the rest are by default. But lets give them a week, cause that's a lot of people to kill. We're now up to six weeks. 

Add a week at least for Aerys' order for Ned and Robert's heads to get to the Vale, and Jon to write back hell no. Then two weeks for Jon to call his banners, and that much plus at least one more week for Ned and Robert to call theirs. That's ten weeks between Brandon's dumbass act and the start of the war, without including time to get the armies consolidated and battles begun. So Jon would now be an extra 2 1/2 months older than Robb, which puts him somewhere in the vicinity of 5-6 months older than Robb. That means Catelyn has to believe that Jon at 17-18 months is younger than her 12 month old. The only way that works is if Jon has a developmental disability, which no doubt would still be evident at the start of the series. And Jon clearly has no developmental disability.

You're missing something about Ashara, mainly the part at the end that you left unbolded. Ashara was dismissed from court at some point, possibly due to pregnancy. There's no reason to mention her being able to leave Starfall during the war unless she was AT Starfall during the war. And since Brandon wasn't at court prior to the war except to commit treason, and he was dead before the start of the war, the only chance they have to hook up is at Harrenhal, which would make Jon even older and Ned's cover story absolutely impossible.

Yes, obviously the story we are told about Dany is that she is the daughter of the Mad King and was born on Dragonstone 9 months after the sack, but I'm saying that Dany is actually the ToJ baby.

Yes, the biggest hurdle to B+A=J is passing off Jon as younger than he is, but it's not quite as bad as you make it out to be. I think the most likely explanation for the timing of Jon's conception is that Ashara was still a lady in waiting to Elia when Brandon came to KL and either met Brandon on his way there or, more likely, had sex with him in the black cells after he was arrested. And then after his execution, she left for Starfall. We don't know that she was "dismissed" from court. But if she was dismissed or left due to pregnancy, it would make just as much sense for her to leave at the start of the rebellion as opposed to leaving right after the Harrenhal tourney.

The reason GRRM mentioned her being able to leave Starfall is because the story goes that Ned met up with her at Starfall at the end of the war, and GRRM pointed out that all the fans assume she was always nailed to the floor at Starfall. My point with the parts I bolded was that GRRM even went out of his way in that SSM to point out that Ashara had previously been a lady in waiting in KL, information that is probably relevant. Your conclusion that Brandon and Ashara could have only hooked up at Harrenhal is incorrect, so Ned's cover story is not impossible.

Anyways, if B+A conceived Jon right before Brandon was killed, Ned would have to pass off Jon as approximately 3 months younger than he really is. Some people make the argument that there's no way Cat wouldn't have noticed that a 12 month old baby is really a 15 month old baby, but I disagree. I think Cat would have probably avoided looking at Jon as much as possible, and Ned would have told the wet nurse (who could have been in on it) to avoid Cat. And if any random person in the castle had suspicions, I doubt they would have said anything to Cat. You know what I think is less likely than passing off Jon as 3 months younger? Ned not thinking about Rhaegar for "years" while raising his son. And R+L=J fails to explain why Ned Dayne was named after Ned, while B+A=J/R+L=D does.

"ZERO reason for Ned not to tell Catelyn"? How about 1) Ned made a promise to Ashara to keep Jon's identity a secret or 2) Ned didn't want to burden Cat with the knowledge that Jon is the lawful heir to WF. So that's 2 whole reasons.

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12 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

<snip

Anyways, if B+A conceived Jon right before Brandon was killed, Ned would have to pass off Jon as approximately 3 months younger than he really is. Some people make the argument that there's no way Cat wouldn't have noticed that a 12 month old baby is really a 15 month old baby, but I disagree. I think Cat would have probably avoided looking at Jon as much as possible, and Ned would have told the wet nurse (who could have been in on it) to avoid Cat. And if any random person in the castle had suspicions, I doubt they would have said anything to Cat. You know what I think is less likely than passing off Jon as 3 months younger? Ned not thinking about Rhaegar for "years" while raising his son. And R+L=J fails to explain why Ned Dayne was named after Ned, while B+A=J/R+L=D does.

"ZERO reason for Ned not to tell Catelyn"? How about 1) Ned made a promise to Ashara to keep Jon's identity a secret or 2) Ned didn't want to burden Cat with the knowledge that Jon is the lawful heir to WF. So that's 2 whole reasons.

Okay, when you put it that way it is possible. But the lack of hints for it in the story are rather problematic. There's a ton of R+L=J in the story, and no R+L=D. However I'm not entirely averse to the idea that Jon and Dany are twins. It's very unlikely but not impossible.

Seriously? Avoided looking at him? That would not have been enough. If she heard whisperings about who Jon's mother might have been don't you think she would have overheard the latest developmental milestones too? Have you ever had children? The difference between a 15 month old and a 12 month old is not hard to miss.

Yeah, no one said anything TO Cat about Ashara Dayne either but she heard about her anyway.

We don't get Ned's thoughts for years. We get them for the duration of his time alive in the first book. And that would be because the author doesn't want to give anything away.

He wasn't. Edric and Eddard are not the same name. Despite the fact that they have the same nickname, there is nothing to indicate that Edric was named after Eddard. With all the Edric has heard about Ned Stark, you'd think he'd mention having been named for him if it was important to the story.

1) nowhere in the text do we have any indication of Ned having promised Ashara anything, nor would a promise to his brother's girl outweigh his duty to his own wife. 2) Jon would NOT be the lawful heir to Winterfell because he would be a bastard, and even were he legitimized he would still go to the end of the line after all of Ned's trueborn children. 3) if Jon HAD been the lawful heir Ned would never have allowed people to think otherwise--he would have told Catelyn and said deal with it. It wouldn't count as any kind of deception because he obviously didn't know about Jon when he married Catelyn. We know enough about Ned and his honor to know he would not have deprived Jon of his heritage short of mortal danger.

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On 3/3/2017 at 8:15 AM, Praetor Xyn said:

It's the Hidden Prince trope. Not even subverted like he normally does.

I don't think he will ever know I believe he comes to Kings Landing. Jon goes Cregan on Littlefinger, Varys, and a few more. So he has his own hour of the wolf and leaves  north of the wall and thats all we know.

As far as what I missed that Tyrion is a possible Targ I still believe it's the twins but I missed Tyrion. Also R+L=J 

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5 hours ago, 1000th Lord Commander said:

You're wandering off topic

Sorry, I had no intention of hijacking your lovely thread, but I must respond to people who say my theories are outright impossible. And it is interesting that most people think they "missed" R+L=J when actually it may not even be there.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Okay, when you put it that way it is possible. But the lack of hints for it in the story are rather problematic. There's a ton of R+L=J in the story, and no R+L=D. However I'm not entirely averse to the idea that Jon and Dany are twins. It's very unlikely but not impossible.

Seriously? Avoided looking at him? That would not have been enough. If she heard whisperings about who Jon's mother might have been don't you think she would have overheard the latest developmental milestones too? Have you ever had children? The difference between a 15 month old and a 12 month old is not hard to miss.

Yeah, no one said anything TO Cat about Ashara Dayne either but she heard about her anyway.

We don't get Ned's thoughts for years. We get them for the duration of his time alive in the first book. And that would be because the author doesn't want to give anything away.

He wasn't. Edric and Eddard are not the same name. Despite the fact that they have the same nickname, there is nothing to indicate that Edric was named after Eddard. With all the Edric has heard about Ned Stark, you'd think he'd mention having been named for him if it was important to the story.

1) nowhere in the text do we have any indication of Ned having promised Ashara anything, nor would a promise to his brother's girl outweigh his duty to his own wife. 2) Jon would NOT be the lawful heir to Winterfell because he would be a bastard, and even were he legitimized he would still go to the end of the line after all of Ned's trueborn children. 3) if Jon HAD been the lawful heir Ned would never have allowed people to think otherwise--he would have told Catelyn and said deal with it. It wouldn't count as any kind of deception because he obviously didn't know about Jon when he married Catelyn. We know enough about Ned and his honor to know he would not have deprived Jon of his heritage short of mortal danger.

There are not a ton of hints for R+L=D, but there is not as much solid evidence for R+L=J as most people argue, and there is the lemongate thing to deal with.

Lol, no, I have never had children, and I have no idea how old babies are when I meet them. I think everyone and his brother were probably gossiping about Arthur and Ashara Dayne and the parentage of Ned's bastard, so hearing those rumors probably would have been unavoidable, but I doubt everyone was gossiping about the alleged age of Jon. So avoiding looking at Jon may have been enough for Cat not to notice.

You are correct that we don't get Ned's thoughts for years, but we do get the following quote from Eddard IX: "For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen." That quote doesn't make sense if he is raising Rhaegar's son.

It is implied that Edric Dayne is named after Ned, by the sheer fact that he goes by the nickname Ned. The story we are told is that Ned killed Arthur Dayne and drove Ashara to suicide. If that was true, the remaining Daynes should hate Ned, and it would be super weird to call the new member of your house by that same nickname. He didn't have to explicitly mention being named after Ned because it is obvious. GRRM is not spoon-feeding us.

We don't have any indication of a promise made to Ashara, but I do think Ned would keep a promise to the woman he loved, because that's exactly the kind of shit Ned does. It's possible Brandon and Ashara secretly wed at some point, which would make Jon the lawful heir. But if he is a bastard and got legitimized, he would arguably be ahead of Ned's children and Ned himself since he is Brandon's son, and a son comes before a brother. Side note - he may also be the lawful heir to Starfall, which could be part of the reason the Daynes were grateful to Ned.

Ned keeping Jon's identity a secret is not about hiding some sort of deception. It is about preventing another war. The Stark-Tully alliance is based entirely on the fact that Cat's children will inherit WF. If this is no longer the case with Jon in the picture, there is a problem. Cat even specifically worries about Jon's children fighting her own grandchildren for WF some day. I think it is more "honorable" of Ned and more in line with his character to keep Jon's identity a secret to prevent war at a cost to his own marriage.

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LOL

You're a really emotionally invested in this notion that B+A=J.

When the books come out and that theory is debunked, I hope you're prepped to cope with disappointment.

R+L=J is '2 Legit 2 Quit' says MC Hammer.

I give you credit for thinking outside the box and crafting an interesting defense of a creative theory but B+A=J simply ain't going to happen.

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11 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Sorry, I had no intention of hijacking your lovely thread, but I must respond to people who say my theories are outright impossible. And it is interesting that most people think they "missed" R+L=J when actually it may not even be there.

There are not a ton of hints for R+L=D, but there is not as much solid evidence for R+L=J as most people argue, and there is the lemongate thing to deal with.

Lol, no, I have never had children, and I have no idea how old babies are when I meet them. I think everyone and his brother were probably gossiping about Arthur and Ashara Dayne and the parentage of Ned's bastard, so hearing those rumors probably would have been unavoidable, but I doubt everyone was gossiping about the alleged age of Jon. So avoiding looking at Jon may have been enough for Cat not to notice.

You are correct that we don't get Ned's thoughts for years, but we do get the following quote from Eddard IX: "For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen." That quote doesn't make sense if he is raising Rhaegar's son.

It is implied that Edric Dayne is named after Ned, by the sheer fact that he goes by the nickname Ned. The story we are told is that Ned killed Arthur Dayne and drove Ashara to suicide. If that was true, the remaining Daynes should hate Ned, and it would be super weird to call the new member of your house by that same nickname. He didn't have to explicitly mention being named after Ned because it is obvious. GRRM is not spoon-feeding us.

We don't have any indication of a promise made to Ashara, but I do think Ned would keep a promise to the woman he loved, because that's exactly the kind of shit Ned does. It's possible Brandon and Ashara secretly wed at some point, which would make Jon the lawful heir. But if he is a bastard and got legitimized, he would arguably be ahead of Ned's children and Ned himself since he is Brandon's son, and a son comes before a brother. Side note - he may also be the lawful heir to Starfall, which could be part of the reason the Daynes were grateful to Ned.

Ned keeping Jon's identity a secret is not about hiding some sort of deception. It is about preventing another war. The Stark-Tully alliance is based entirely on the fact that Cat's children will inherit WF. If this is no longer the case with Jon in the picture, there is a problem. Cat even specifically worries about Jon's children fighting her own grandchildren for WF some day. I think it is more "honorable" of Ned and more in line with his character to keep Jon's identity a secret to prevent war at a cost to his own marriage.

Lemongate has nothing to do with this. If Dany was Lyanna and Rhaegar's child, she still would have been taken out of the country immediately for her own safety, which means she would have no recollection of Dorne unless she came back later. Though I like the idea that Lyanna named her for the first Daenerys as a means of recompense to Elia and the rest of the Martells.

I didn't say they'd be gossiping. There's a natural tendency among the keepers of noble children in the medieval time period to think the child in your care is the best. Undoubtedly as long as Robb and Jon had different women in charge of them there would be a rivalry of sorts between the two women, and that would include bragging about each's achievements. It's unlikely that Cat wouldn't hear Robb's nurse complaining about that bragging wench who looked after the bastard.

Actually it does. If keeping the secret is vital to keeping everyone safe, he'll repress the memories, and as Jon looks like Lyanna Ned would think of his sister more than of Rhaegar.

No, it's not. That would be like saying it's implied that Ted Kennedy, whose name was Edward, was named after my great-grandfather Ted, whose name was Theodore. People do not usually choose their children's names based on them having the same nickname as someone else.

No, it's not. We are told that Ned killed Arthur Dayne, but Ashara's alleged suicide has only speculation attached. Barristan, who was not there, thinks she might have killed herself over her brother's death, or grief over losing her baby, or the man who dishonored her. 

And the information that he loved her comes from a kid who wasn't even born yet when all of this happened. We have no hints that any feelings actually existed between Ned and Ashara...especially if she slept with his brother.

Yes, and it's possible that Dany is just the daughter of a Lyseni whore, but it's not very likely.

That's not how it works. A trueborn son comes before a brother, but legitimized bastards go to the end of the line.

No, he wouldn't. Ashara was younger than her brother who was Lord of Starfall. Even a trueborn Jon Stark, son of Brandon, would not inherit until after Edric who is in direct line for the Lordship after his own father.

An alliance that was made before anyone knew Jon existed, and as such no one could blame Ned for stepping aside in favor of a trueborn son of Brandon's that he wasn't aware existed. Hoster Tully was not going to start a war with his son-in-law over a kid no one knew about, who might not have even survive to adulthood. Robert, on the other hand, would absolutely have started a war over Ned protecting Rhaegar Targaryen's son.

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Frey Pies for sure, the Sarella and Alleras thing, and I don't think this counts because I knew nothing of Sir Duncan before reading the main series but Brienne picks up or has her shield painted with Duncans tree on a hilltop and shooting start graphic. That's more of an easter egg, but rereading after knowing about Duncan and picking up on it made me smile.

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