What if House Arryn declares for Aegon VI?

[UFT]

with such a powerful, fresh house behind him with an elite army, he would be a real contender to defeat tommen. 

 

[Magnar of the Dreadfort]

Would definetly make him a strong contender , but more chance the Vale would join him after Dorne pushes his claim.

Theres no real reason for the Vale to give up their current neutrality.

[Lord Varys]

27 minutes ago, Magnar of the Dreadfort said:

Theres no real reason for the Vale to give up their current neutrality.

Harry is a young man who is likely keen to show his power in battle. And many of the Lords of the Vale wanted to fight in the War of the Five Kings. And keep in mind that Sansa only has to hide while King Tommen sits the Iron Throne. A King Aegon VI wouldn't care all that much whether she was complicit in the murder of a false king or not.

[Magnar of the Dreadfort]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Harry is a young man who is likely keen to show his power in battle. And many of the Lords of the Vale wanted to fight in the War of the Five Kings. And keep in mind that Sansa only has to hide while King Tommen sits the Iron Throne. A King Aegon VI wouldn't care all that much whether she was complicit in the murder of a false king or not.

Harry isn't Lord of the Vale yet  

SweetRobin is still Lord and I just can't see Littlefinger throwing the support of the Vale behind (f)Aegon.

He is a calculating character always weighing up the options and would lose alot of face if Aegon doesn't turn out to be real.

 

[Coolbeard the Exile]

1 hour ago, Magnar of the Dreadfort said:

Would definetly make him a strong contender , but more chance the Vale would join him after Dorne pushes his claim.

Theres no real reason for the Vale to give up their current neutrality.

Lannisters and Tyrells are weak and Aegon is coming for the Throne. They would have alot to gain if they sided with Aegon.

[Free Northman Reborn]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Harry is a young man who is likely keen to show his power in battle. And many of the Lords of the Vale wanted to fight in the War of the Five Kings. And keep in mind that Sansa only has to hide while King Tommen sits the Iron Throne. A King Aegon VI wouldn't care all that much whether she was complicit in the murder of a false king or not.

Just on the bolded part. You have made this statement before, as part of your broader argument that the Vale will join with Aegon. Whether the Vale eventually joins with Aegon or not I cannot say, although I'm inclined to doubt that they will. But on the bolded part I must point out that the Lords of the Vale were not keen to get involved in the War of the Five Kings just for the sake of FOMO ( defined as anxiety that an exciting or interesting event may currently be happening elsewhere, while you're missing out). Instead, those that wanted to get involved wanted to do so out of loyalty to the Starks and Tullys.

That motivation is absent in the case of Aegon's quest for the Iron Throne. In fact, those who allied with the Starks and Tully's in the Rebellion, did so to OVERTHROW the Targaryens, which is the opposite to what Aegon is trying to achieve here.

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, Magnar of the Dreadfort said:

Harry isn't Lord of the Vale yet  

SweetRobin is still Lord and I just can't see Littlefinger throwing the support of the Vale behind (f)Aegon.

He is a calculating character always weighing up the options and would lose alot of face if Aegon doesn't turn out to be real.

What if Sansa realizes/concludes that supporting a King Aegon would benefit her? What is Littlefinger going to do if she pushes him to follow her advice/lead on this one? He has a thing for her. And he is after ultimate power, not some regional power.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Just on the bolded part. You have made this statement before, as part of your broader argument that the Vale will join with Aegon. Whether the Vale eventually joins with Aegon or not I cannot say, although I'm inclined to doubt that they will. But on the bolded part I must point out that the Lords of the Vale were not keen to get involved in the War of the Five Kings just for the sake of FOMO ( defined as anxiety that an exciting or interesting event may currently be happening elsewhere, while you're missing out). Instead, those that wanted to get involved wanted to do so out of loyalty to the Starks and Tullys.

 

No, they didn't. They disliked the fact that Robert refused to name Lord Robert the new Warden of the East, and they believed Lysa Arryn's claims that the Lannisters killed their liege lord, Jon Arryn, a man that was apparently universally respected and adored in the Vale. But hating/disliking the Lannisters isn't the same as loving/feeling loyalty to the Starks and Tullys.

There are Waynwood, Corbray, and possibly some Templeton Stark cousins in the Vale but nothing indicates they feel any loyalty for the Starks. If they did, they would have ignored Lysa, taken their men, and joined the fight in the Riverlands.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That motivation is absent in the case of Aegon's quest for the Iron Throne. In fact, those who allied with the Starks and Tully's in the Rebellion, did so to OVERTHROW the Targaryens, which is the opposite to what Aegon is trying to achieve here.

They followed Robert Baratheon's and Jon Arryn's lead back then. The Rebellion began in the Vale. The Northmen and the Riverlords later joined them, not the other way around. If the Lord Protector, Harry the Heir, and a Sansa Stark finally showing her colors decide the Vale should now support a Targaryen king they will follow suit. What else should they do?

[Magnar of the Dreadfort]

33 minutes ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Lannisters and Tyrells are weak and Aegon is coming for the Throne. They would have alot to gain if they sided with Aegon.

At this current time none of them know that Aegon might still be alive and believe his head was smashed in by Ser Gregor Clegane.

If (f)Aegon takes Storms End that will turn some heads , maybe then Dorne will join him , but the Vale have no reason to support him until he takes the Iron Throne.

They may have alot to gain but they also have alot to lose pledging themselves to him , by staying neutral they keep their full strength.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

7 minutes ago, Magnar of the Dreadfort said:

At this current time none of them know that Aegon might still be alive and believe his head was smashed in by Ser Gregor Clegane.

If (f)Aegon takes Storms End that will turn some heads , maybe then Dorne will join him , but the Vale have no reason to support him until he takes the Iron Throne.

They may have alot to gain but they also have alot to lose pledging themselves to him , by staying neutral they keep their full strength.

Aegon defeats Mace Tyrell and reveals himself and marches on King's Landing. Perfect time for the Vale to join.

[Magnar of the Dreadfort]

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

What if Sansa realizes/concludes that supporting a King Aegon would benefit her? What is Littlefinger going to do if she pushes him to follow her advice/lead on this one? He has a thing for her. And he is after ultimate power, not some regional power.

 

I think he is a couple steps ahead of Sansa when thinking of political scenarios an will probably give her one of his lessons on why she is wrong and possibly present another option.

Exactly Littlefinger is after something more i don't see him throwing it all away because he has a thing for Sansa.

[Magnar of the Dreadfort]

Sorry Lord Varys , having trouble with the quote.

[Magnar of the Dreadfort]

28 minutes ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Aegon defeats Mace Tyrell and reveals himself and marches on King's Landing. Perfect time for the Vale to join.

Or wait and see if he takes Kings Landing and then make a decision , if he does take Kings Landing Aegons force will be weakened and the Vale is in an even stronger position and still at full strength.

If he doesn't manage to take KL then the Vale haven't made fools of themselves.

[Lord Varys]

27 minutes ago, Magnar of the Dreadfort said:

I think he is a couple steps ahead of Sansa when thinking of political scenarios an will probably give her one of his lessons on why she is wrong and possibly present another option.

Like what? Doing nothing? The North plan Littlefinger presented Sansa with in AFfC does not lead to the Iron Throne. And it is a plan for next spring, not winter.

27 minutes ago, Magnar of the Dreadfort said:

Exactly Littlefinger is after something more i don't see him throwing it all away because he has a thing for Sansa.

Then there would be no point of Sansa being there, would it? She can manipulate him, too. Littlefinger wouldn't be throwing away anything there. If they help make the next king they can reap a lot of rewards, and acquire even more power.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Lord Protector, Harry the Heir, and a Sansa Stark finally showing her colors decide the Vale should now support a Targaryen king they will follow suit. What else should they do?

The quoted sentence is the only one in your post that addresses the potential motivation for the Vale lords to join with Aegon. And basically you are saying their motivation will be driven by the motivation of their Lord Paramount.

And in that case I can only remind you of your argument against the Vale and Riverlords potentially supporting Jon in future. Which was that these regions would not just blindly follow Harry/Sansa and Edmure/Bran/Rickon (depending on who the heir to Riverrun is at that point), in supporting a King of the Lord Paramount's choice.

So I guess your view comes down to the following: If the Lords Paramount of the Vale and Riverlands support Jon's claim to the Throne then their vassal lords will NOT go along with it, but if they support Aegon's claim then they WILL.

Which seems a curious and inconsistent type of logic to me, based largely on who you would prefer them to support.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Which seems a curious and inconsistent type of logic to me, based largely on who you would prefer them to support.

An opportunity to support Jon Snow is going to come much later if it comes at all. Aegon is there now, and he will write to the Vale and ask them for their help. They will have to make a decision then, and they have no reason to believe that Jon Snow will ever call upon their help. The time to act is now not in some future in ADoS or even later.

Allying with Aegon is a much safer bet then making common cause with the bloodied and beaten Riverlords (who also might flock to Aegon sooner or later) or Northmen. Especially if they can become the kingmakers. In Jon Snow's case they could just join and support him (since whatever claim he is going to make will be decided in the North with the Lords of the Vale being unable to influence anything there) but in Aegon's case they can really make a difference.

In addition, any fighting for Aegon's throne will take place south in the Crownlands where fighting could still be done for quite some time as winter progresses while the conditions in the North and the Riverlands will get worse pretty soon.

The Lords of the Vale are not likely to be all that keen to support some sort of secessionist game you seem to support. And the Riverlords will, neither. They cannot defend their borders and greatly suffered during the War of the Five Kings. If winter is going to teach the people anything then that the Realm should not fracture. They might have differences who should sit the Iron Throne but not that somebody should there and rule over them all.

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

An opportunity to support Jon Snow is going to come much later if it comes at all. Aegon is there now, and he will write to the Vale and ask them for their help. They will have to make a decision then, and they have no reason to believe that Jon Snow will ever call upon their help. The time to act is now not in some future in ADoS or even later.

Allying with Aegon is a much safer bet then making common cause with the bloodied and beaten Riverlords (who also might flock to Aegon sooner or later) or Northmen. Especially if they can become the kingmakers. In Jon Snow's case they could just join and support him (since whatever claim he is going to make will be decided in the North with the Lords of the Vale being unable to influence anything there) but in Aegon's case they can really make a difference.

In addition, any fighting for Aegon's throne will take place south in the Crownlands where fighting could still be done for quite some time as winter progresses while the conditions in the North and the Riverlands will get worse pretty soon.

The Lords of the Vale are not likely to be all that keen to support some sort of secessionist game you seem to support. And the Riverlords will, neither. They cannot defend their borders and greatly suffered during the War of the Five Kings. If winter is going to teach the people anything then that the Realm should not fracture. They might have differences who should sit the Iron Throne but not that somebody should there and rule over them all.

Possible. Or Littlefinger might have more information on Daenerys, and decide to bide his time to see who wins the tussle between Aegon and the Lannisters/Tyrells. And by the time that conflict is settled, the situation on the Jon front might be quite a bit more developed than it is now.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Possible. Or Littlefinger might have more information on Daenerys, and decide to bide his time to see who wins the tussle between Aegon and the Lannisters/Tyrells. And by the time that conflict is settled, the situation on the Jon front might be quite a bit more developed than it is now.

That doesn't make any sense because the news about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr and her later disappearance/death will inevitably travel to Westeros. And Littlefinger might hear about that much sooner than others. There is a strong hint that he had heard stuff about her back in AFfC with his 'war of the three queens' talk - he was most likely referring to Cersei, Margaery, and Daenerys.

If they bided their time once again then they will lose any chance to influence and/or profit from the whole thing. And one assumes that this will very difficult to sell to either Sansa (who has a pretty good reason to see Cersei and the Tyrells crushed), Harry (who is a young and confident man who might want to show off that he is a capable warrior) as well as to those other young men we see coming to the tourney.

Keep in mind that Alayne 1 had Littlefinger receive important news that are not yet addressed. What news you think those were? If word about Aegon reaches the Gates of the Moon while all those lords are there in attendance things might get stirred up to a degree that cooler hands simply can't prevail. Just remember how they proclaimed Robb king.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't make any sense because the news about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr and her later disappearance/death will inevitably travel to Westeros. And Littlefinger might hear about that much sooner than others. There is a strong hint that he had heard stuff about her back in AFfC with his 'war of the three queens' talk - he was most likely referring to Cersei, Margaery, and Daenerys.

If they bided their time once again then they will lose any chance to influence and/or profit from the whole thing. And one assumes that this will very difficult to sell to either Sansa (who has a pretty good reason to see Cersei and the Tyrells crushed), Harry (who is a young and confident man who might want to show off that he is a capable warrior) as well as to those other young men we see coming to the tourney.

Keep in mind that Alayne 1 had Littlefinger receive important news that are not yet addressed. What news you think those were? If word about Aegon reaches the Gates of the Moon while all those lords are there in attendance things might get stirred up to a degree that cooler hands simply can't prevail. Just remember how they proclaimed Robb king.

Remind me how Sansa gets to play a role in the Vale without marrying Harry? Because I assume that for the Vale to gain from assisting Aegon there would have to be some type of marriage deal in the mix. But Sansa is only a representative of the Vale if she marries Harry. Which she can't do while also marrying Aegon.

So it seems Sansa cannot really play a role in an Aegon/Vale alliance in any meaningful way.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Remind me how Sansa gets to play a role in the Vale without marrying Harry? Because I assume that for the Vale to gain from assisting Aegon there would have to be some type of marriage deal in the mix. But Sansa is only a representative of the Vale if she marries Harry. Which she can't do while also marrying Aegon.

So it seems Sansa cannot really play a role in an Aegon/Vale alliance in any meaningful way.

Sure, she can. By influencing Littlefinger as Lord Protector to declare for Aegon. And by calling on her Vale relatives - the Waynwoods, the Corbrays, and possibly some Templetons - and other Lords of the Vale positively inclined to her as a Stark (the Royces, perhaps) to support her in this. And, of course, her betrothed Harrold Hardyng. His opinion certainly will matter when this this is discussed.

She could suddenly decide to reveal who she is and give them a rousing speech during some gathering/council.

While I find the idea interesting that Sansa might (try to) marry Aegon this is by no means a certainty. And Sansa doesn't have to marry Harry, either, to exert some influence over him.

They would not make a marriage alliance before they declared for Aegon. It is much likely they would, in the end, then perhaps push Aegon for such a thing if they want to.

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, she can. By influencing Littlefinger as Lord Protector to declare for Aegon. And by calling on her Vale relatives - the Waynwoods, the Corbrays, and possibly some Templetons - and other Lords of the Vale positively inclined to her as a Stark (the Royces, perhaps) to support her in this. And, of course, her betrothed Harrold Hardyng. His opinion certainly will matter when this this is discussed.

She could suddenly decide to reveal who she is and give them a rousing speech during some gathering/council.

While I find the idea interesting that Sansa might (try to) marry Aegon this is by no means a certainty. And Sansa doesn't have to marry Harry, either, to exert some influence over him.

They would not make a marriage alliance before they declared for Aegon. It is much likely they would, in the end, then perhaps push Aegon for such a thing if they want to.

OK, so your premise is that Sansa will be the one who is motivated to support Aegon, and will then try and influence Littlefinger, her Vale relatives and those sympathetic to her Stark heritage to join in this cause.

I'm just curious why Sansa would be motivated to do all of this, rather than use this sudden political power of hers (the existence of which I find somewhat unbelievable without her being the Lady of the Vale or better yet, the mother of the Arryn heir), to push for the retaking of Winterfell and the rescue of her sister instead. Why would Sansa care about Aegon, when she could instead use all this supposed power of hers to get the Starks back in control of her beloved Winterfell?