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Friends in the Stormlands


Lord Varys

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Let's talk about those.

Who among the Stormlords is going to join Aegon once he takes Storm's End and declares himself?

I've just doing a reread of one of the later prints of TWoIaF and unless Yandel is not just sucking up to Robert and his people in the book the Marcher Lords are really a powerhouse in their own right.

We get talk about them being the best warriors (possibly some sucking up) but also that the men in the Marches are considered to be the best archers in Westeros. That's very interesting. There is a tendency in both Yandel and Gyldayn's texts to single out the contingent of archers and crossbowmen an army has, and to detail the impact such men have on a battle when they make one.

Presumably we will see this reflected in the battles to come in the books as well (especially when the Dothraki are going to use dragonbone bows).

We already know that Black Balaq and his archers have goldenheart bows, the second best in Martinworld. If hundreds of archers from the Marches join them they could both be used in a devastating way against the Tyrell knights.

Now, the Swanns have done pretty much nothing in the books so far. We don't know whether Ser Donnel has returned to Stonehelm but after he bent the knee to Joffrey and with Balon serving with the KG he should have gotten leave to do so.

And we should keep in mind that TWoIaF also lists the Selmys as major Marcher Lords. Barristan has cousins and other kin.

We have no idea what's going on in Blackhaven or Nightsong but this means nothing. Lord Beric could have male kin, just as the late Lord Bryce might have other (more distant) male kin aside from Rolland Storm who might lead the Caron men in war. Even if not, then both castles should have some castellans or other people in charge who might join Aegon. I mean, him taking Storm's End will indeed be a huge feat, and something that will certainly have an impact on the Stormlords. He will be essentially become, in a sense, their king.

And the really interesting thing is that the Marcher Lords and their men effectively stayed out of the war because of the chances that Dorne would invade the Marches.

Now, if Dorne does now join Aegon the Marcher Lords can either oppose them/not allow them to cross their lands, do nothing, or join them.

What are they going to do?

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It's hard to say which house may join them simply because we know so little about the Stormlands when compared to other regions. Seriously, off the top of my head, I can only think of like.. 3, maybe 4 houses from the Stormlands: Dondarrion, Selmy, Swann, Connington.. oh and Tarth. That's about it. And of these houses I just listed we know little next to nothing. 

Didn't the Swanns switch sides during the War of Five like three times? I'd say look to them, cause obviously their loyalty is not too solid. Balon Swann is well outside of Lannister/Tyrell control, so they have no reason to hold back. 

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House Swann, definitely: 

Quote

“What will you do if brave Ser Donnel gives his sword to yet another usurper, and one day comes storming into the throne room? And there you stand all in white, between your king and your blood. What will you do?”

 

“I... my lord, that will never happen.”

 

“It happened to me,” Jaime said.

 

Swann wiped his brow with the sleeve of his white tunic.

 

“You have no answer?”

 

“My lord.” Ser Balon drew himself up. “On my sword, on my honor, on my father’s name, I swear... I shall not do as you did.”

 

Jaime laughed. “Good. Return to your duties... and tell Ser Donnel to add a weathervane to his shield.”

According to the wiki they're the second most powerful House in the stormlands. They're likely the wealthiest too, since they control a major river. Their support would definitely contribute to Aegon's initial hype. 

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54 minutes ago, Renly's Banana said:

It's hard to say which house may join them simply because we know so little about the Stormlands when compared to other regions. Seriously, off the top of my head, I can only think of like.. 3, maybe 4 houses from the Stormlands: Dondarrion, Selmy, Swann, Connington.. oh and Tarth. That's about it. And of these houses I just listed we know little next to nothing. 

Didn't the Swanns switch sides during the War of Five like three times? I'd say look to them, cause obviously their loyalty is not too solid. Balon Swann is well outside of Lannister/Tyrell control, so they have no reason to hold back. 

The Swanns switching sides is even lampshaded by Jaime's convo with Balon. I agree.

I would add the Houses who have already lost castles to the GC: Estermont, Morrigen, and Wylde.

Also, I can't imagine the Marcher Lords are too happy about Phillip Foote being made Lord of the Marches him being an outsider and all. I expect rebellion at Night

Edit: Ninja'd by @Good Guy Garlan

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From The Griffin Reborn and Arianne II, Winds, we know that Aegon pretty much controls Greenstone, Cape Wrath, and Tarth, so he can likely count on support, willing or not, from Estermont, Whitehead, Mertyns, Wylde, Morrigen, Connington, and Tarth, and possibly 

If he beats Mace and/or Randyll at or near Bronzegate, he should control the land south of Massey's Hook and east of the Wendwater, so he'll be able to count on whatever is left of Baratheon at Storm’s End, Fell, Buckler, and Errol.

Would that be enough for the Marcher Lords (Swann, Grandison, Cafferen, Dondarrion, Selmy, and Caron) and others to join him? As suggested above, their loyalties seem to change with the wind. 

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I believe that Edric Dayne and part of Brotherhood without Banners (Anguy is from the Marches) are going to Stormlands to rest Lord Beric's body in Blackhaven. I think with Edric's time as Lord Beric's squire and him witnessing the ideals the original Brotherhood fought for, it will stir the pot in Stormlands for sure.

In my opinion, Edric Dayne will be an important figure in the coming books and the bridge for us to learn more about House Dayne, Dawn and title Sword of the Morning. I believe Edric will establish a new brotherhood in the Red Mountains and protect the population that WILL suffer from Aegon's campaign. If Darkstar gets ahold of Dawn and joins Aegon's Kingsguard like many predict, I bet Edric would like to settle some score there.

Edric might not consider himself a feudal lord anymore, he has been through much and might look at life completely different after Brotherhood experience.

I believe Edric Dayne will be in opposition of Aegon's faction, especially if Jon Connington grows to become more like Tywin Lannister and commits war atrocities in the Stormlands. Maybe Edric will become a new Vulture King in the Red Mountains, opposing the "new government" of Aegon? 

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8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Let's talk about those.

Who among the Stormlords is going to join Aegon once he takes Storm's End and declares himself?

I've just doing a reread of one of the later prints of TWoIaF and unless Yandel is not just sucking up to Robert and his people in the book the Marcher Lords are really a powerhouse in their own right.

We get talk about them being the best warriors (possibly some sucking up) but also that the men in the Marches are considered to be the best archers in Westeros. That's very interesting. There is a tendency in both Yandel and Gyldayn's texts to single out the contingent of archers and crossbowmen an army has, and to detail the impact such men have on a battle when they make one.

Presumably we will see this reflected in the battles to come in the books as well (especially when the Dothraki are going to use dragonbone bows).

We already know that Black Balaq and his archers have goldenheart bows, the second best in Martinworld. If hundreds of archers from the Marches join them they could both be used in a devastating way against the Tyrell knights.

Now, the Swanns have done pretty much nothing in the books so far. We don't know whether Ser Donnel has returned to Stonehelm but after he bent the knee to Joffrey and with Balon serving with the KG he should have gotten leave to do so.

And we should keep in mind that TWoIaF also lists the Selmys as major Marcher Lords. Barristan has cousins and other kin.

We have no idea what's going on in Blackhaven or Nightsong but this means nothing. Lord Beric could have male kin, just as the late Lord Bryce might have other (more distant) male kin aside from Rolland Storm who might lead the Caron men in war. Even if not, then both castles should have some castellans or other people in charge who might join Aegon. I mean, him taking Storm's End will indeed be a huge feat, and something that will certainly have an impact on the Stormlords. He will be essentially become, in a sense, their king.

And the really interesting thing is that the Marcher Lords and their men effectively stayed out of the war because of the chances that Dorne would invade the Marches.

Now, if Dorne does now join Aegon the Marcher Lords can either oppose them/not allow them to cross their lands, do nothing, or join them.

What are they going to do?

This is they key factor here. The Marcher lords have the best castles in the region (apart from Storm´s End) and a martial culture. While Aegons invasion has gone as clockwork so far, taking many lords unawares, these guys are not going to go down that easily.

Apart from Nightsong (who is controlled by House Foote and loyal to the crown), we have no reason to believe that they hold special loyality to anyone. Indeed, Joffreys meddling with the Carons might make the others less interested in the queen. But I am not as convinced that they will support the dragons, and especially not since they need to watch out for Dorne. I think most are war-tired or supports Stannis in theory. So, after their failed wars they have gone home to do what they do best - watch against the dornish. 

So, the slight chance of them joining Aegon depends on if he can make sure that Dorne stays out of it and maybe make sure that Dorne joins them even, because they are not going to leave that border undefended. Who was in charge of those dornish armies close to the border again? Thats right - Arianne Martell, who could solve that problem.

Then again, some lords will dislike Aegon for his attack on the region, supports Stannis/The Crown and will in general put themselves of the opposite side of the dornish out of principle.

So, I think Aegon might recruit one or two Marcher lords to his cause, but not more than that. The Stormlands are not in my opinion, a fertile ground for recruitment. They are pretty war-tired. Some Marcher lords might be the exception to this. But the Stormlords won´t be the vital force Aegon need. We have the Reach for that. 

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9 hours ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

The Swanns switching sides is even lampshaded by Jaime's convo with Balon. I agree.

I would add the Houses who have already lost castles to the GC: Estermont, Morrigen, and Wylde.

Also, I can't imagine the Marcher Lords are too happy about Phillip Foote being made Lord of the Marches him being an outsider and all. I expect rebellion at Nightsong.

The thing is, that we don't even know whether Ser Philip actually took possession of his new castle already. Garlan Tyrell is Lord of Brightwater yet he doesn't hold the castle yet, either. One assumes that Foote would have to go with a considerable force to Nightsong to force the garrison there to hand the castle over to him, and we don't know whether that has happened as of yet or not.

Foote last shows up in ASoS so it is possible that he left court but we don't know that.

If he already has taken possession of Nightsong then we can be very sure that the Caron men won't like that at all, especially if there are still some Caron cousins around who have claims to the castle.

8 hours ago, the Scorpion Knight said:

Nobody mention Rhaegars Former squire: Ser Richard Lonmouth

The Lonmouths are interesting, too, of course, but they would be a rather small house.

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

From The Griffin Reborn and Arianne II, Winds, we know that Aegon pretty much controls Greenstone, Cape Wrath, and Tarth, so he can likely count on support, willing or not, from Estermont, Whitehead, Mertyns, Wylde, Morrigen, Connington, and Tarth, and possibly

Aside from the Conningtons and Wyldes those seem to be all rather small houses. The true power in the Stormlands seems to sit in the Marches, especially since they are the lords who apparently sent the least men to either Renly or Stannis, and are thus likely to make a real difference in the coming wars.

Whether the island lords can be forced to send more than token forces remains to be seen. You have to keep in mind that the Golden Company cannot really afford spare men to keep an entire island under control and/or to garrison the castles they have taken. They are dependent on winning allies, not antagonizing people.

The Estermonts are kin to the Baratheons so I don't think it likely they will commit themselves all that much (unless they decide to believe that Cersei's children are not Robert's) but Lord Selwyn seems be Aegon's cousin, so there is a chance that bestirs himself. However, we really have no idea how many more men the Tarths can muster. Brienne brought a token force to Renly.

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If he beats Mace and/or Randyll at or near Bronzegate, he should control the land south of Massey's Hook and east of the Wendwater, so he'll be able to count on whatever is left of Baratheon at Storm’s End, Fell, Buckler, and Errol.

Should he defeat the Tyrell army then he should have the entire Stormlands. That should prove that he means real business. But I'm more interesting who might be inclined to join him before that happens, when he just has taken Storm's End. Surely that is a much more interesting thing.

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Would that be enough for the Marcher Lords (Swann, Grandison, Cafferen, Dondarrion, Selmy, and Caron) and others to join him? As suggested above, their loyalties seem to change with the wind. 

The Penroses - about whose strength we know virtually nothing - also spring to mind. We don't know where Parchments is so they might not be Marcher Lords but they have quite a lot of Targaryen blood - Aelinor Penrose was Aerys I's cousin on the Targaryen side of the family, making her either a descendant of one of the five Targaryen-Hightower girls or a Velaryon, and the house got additional Targaryen blood from Princess Elaena's marriage to Ronnel Penrose. If the present day Penroses are descended from her son Robin then they should very well remember that. And Elaena's three daughters Laena, Jocelyn, and Joy might have married into Stormlander houses, too.

We all know that the Stormlanders are fiercely loyal to the Baratheons. But they are gone now - and even while they were there Steffon and his sons were essentially Targaryen-Baratheons. With them gone the Stormlanders might rediscover what connections they actually have to the Targaryens.

The Dondarrions might have Targaryen blood, too, if the Baelor-Jena marriage is any indication.

And we always have to keep in mind that Aegon's Hand and protector is a fellow Stormlord, Lord Jon Connington. The man might not be the most popular man in the Stormlands but he is a man many people would remember, and that whole fact would lend a lot of credence to Aegon's claim to be Rhaegar's son.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

This is they key factor here. The Marcher lords have the best castles in the region (apart from Storm´s End) and a martial culture. While Aegons invasion has gone as clockwork so far, taking many lords unawares, these guys are not going to go down that easily.

Aegon certainly won't attack them all by himself. But if they refuse to join them they might have to deal with 10,000 Dornishmen ravaging their lands without the prospect to get any support from the other Stormlords, the Reach (due to the Ironborn crisis) or the Iron Throne. They would be essentially fucked. In addition, Lord Swann doesn't seem to be all that determined, and Nightsong and Blackhaven might lack a clear and charismatic leader. Nobody in Nightsong is likely going to gladly die in the name of Lord Philip Foote of Nightsong!

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Apart from Nightsong (who is controlled by House Foote and loyal to the crown), we have no reason to believe that they hold special loyality to anyone. Indeed, Joffreys meddling with the Carons might make the others less interested in the queen. But I am not as convinced that they will support the dragons, and especially not since they need to watch out for Dorne. I think most are war-tired or supports Stannis in theory. So, after their failed wars they have gone home to do what they do best - watch against the dornish. 

What we little we know about what transpired there is that they did not really send many men to either Renly or Stannis (after Renly's death). They could not be sure how Dorne would react to Renly's coronation, and when Tyrion betrothed Myrcella to Trystane they would have gotten even more wary. Not to mention that they must have gotten reports of Doran marshaling armies in the two passes.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

So, the slight chance of them joining Aegon depends on if he can make sure that Dorne stays out of it and maybe make sure that Dorne joins them even, because they are not going to leave that border undefended. Who was in charge of those dornish armies close to the border again? Thats right - Arianne Martell, who could solve that problem.

Well, they certainly could team up this time, for once? It depends how much they loved Robert and how pissed they are at the Lannisters for treating him the way they did (assuming they buy Stannis' story about the children, which is very likely considering that many of the men there must have known Stannis Baratheon for quite some time).

If Aegon and Dorne help them to get back at the Lannisters, and if the only other option they have is suffer their wrath it should be pretty easy which way they would go.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Then again, some lords will dislike Aegon for his attack on the region, supports Stannis/The Crown and will in general put themselves of the opposite side of the dornish out of principle.

The latter could be the case, but Aegon might call on their help long before they learn about Arianne's involvement. They never supported either Stannis or Joffrey/Tommen wholeheartedly. Not even Renly, it seems (at least not with as many men as they could have mustered).

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

So, I think Aegon might recruit one or two Marcher lords to his cause, but not more than that. The Stormlands are not in my opinion, a fertile ground for recruitment. They are pretty war-tired. Some Marcher lords might be the exception to this. But the Stormlords won´t be the vital force Aegon need. We have the Reach for that. 

Outside of the Marches they might be war-tired. But not necessarily there. And the Reach first has to get a really bloody nose before they consider changing allegiances, and Aegon is not likely to get many men out of the Reach directly. It would be much more likely that he pulls a stunt like Robert and wins the allegiance of many of the Tyrell men marching against him.

Then he would have the strength and means to take the capital and the throne.

In regards to the Marcher Lords we should also keep House Peake in mind. If Laswell was referring to his cousin Titus as one of his Reach friends - and the man is actually Lord of Starpike - then he could bring a considerable force from there to Storm's End, convincing the other Marcher Lords in the Stormlands to join him on the way.

No Peake forces have been mentioned as being with Renly or Stannis' forces, suggesting that if Starpike still exists Lord Titus chose to stay out of the whole affair entirely. That could mean he has some men to spare now, unlike the Tarlys whose strength most likely marched with Renly and Randyll up to the Crownlands already.

The Merryweathers might also join Aegon at Storm's End with a pretty strong force but aside from that Aegon is much more likely only going to get full access to whatever men the Reach has to offer after he has defeated the Tyrell army marching against him. And that might then very much include House Tyrell itself (say, if he captures Mace either in battle or after he takes the capital).

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@Lord Varys Good points. Yeah, I've long wondered what the Stormlords wil be doing going forward, in particular those from the Marches. And that's a good addition with mentioning their prowess as archers (though very few Dothraki have dragonbone given it's rarity, as it's prized by them, however, Jorah does say they are better than Westerosi ones - presumably besides weirwood - so they likely get them from the Forest of Qohor or Ifequevron).

Now, it may be that Aegon & JonCon will court the Marcher lords directly if some of their forces head west against the Ironborn (though I don't see this until Aegon claims King's Landing or Tarly defects to him before facing him in the field - then he could take his army to the Reach) or with envoys (I doubt it, more like it will just be ravens), but I think the primary motivator for them to join the (first) Targaryen campaign or not will be the Dornish. Surely, the Carons & Dondarrions at least.

Doran has what, a host in both the Prince's Pass & the Boneway, of perhaps ~10000 men each. Easily powerful motivators to choose the side that they do, or if they actually raid/attack the Marches on the way through (would the Yronwoods, etc perhaps be bold enough to demand Marcher castles for their fealty?) to Aegon, to perhaps oppose them say when Dany arrives. I very much lean towards the former, though I certainly think the latter could be possible. (That said, the Dornish may not have been awarded any marcher castles Tyrion promised, certainly not any major ones).

As @Scorpion92 proposes, Edric (along with perhaps a number of the Brotherhood who seem to have split from LSH's group with him) could perhaps be a factor here. A boy of only ~13, but the Lord of Starfall, Beric's squire, & perhaps guardian of his bones/ashes (I don't see them dragging a rotting corpse that far) until he can be set to rest at Blackhaven. On a different track to Scorpion92 however, that perhaps he is a factor for getting at least the Dondarrions to declare for Aegon.

If Edric doesn't get Dankstar'd for Dawn (or survives, or simply goes to Blackhaven first), he may match Allyria (mayhaps she's even at Blackhaven instead of Sunspear) with some male Dondarrion to keep the alliance going (not only between the Houses, but to a degree on a greater level between Dornish & Marcher), or perhaps instead marry some female Dondarrion himself. We don't know if Beric had any heirs, close or distant, but I tend to think someone is at Blackhaven with a claim.

Whatever the case, much (if not all) of Blackhaven's strength at home as it doesn't seem they declared for anyone during the Wot5K. How much do you think they can marshal? They & the Carons had ~4000 men & ~800 cavalry between them against the 206 Vulture King, but I tend to think that is towards the upper limit (indeed, they likely attracted a fair number of Ser Arlans, & there's all the wars the Stormlands have fought in since).

Most like Blackhaven can field at least 1000 men currently, though I'm not sure I would say more than ~1500. Whatever the case, they presumably need a Dondarrion or trusted vassal of theirs still to lead them though. Despite them seemingly not being at the Blackwater, do you think House Dondarrion lost any lands afterwards?

Presumably, some measure of the Nightsong strength marched (& died) with Lord Bryce. Despite Philip Foote being awarded Nightsong, it's not unlikely some of the lands were awarded to others post-Blackwater, perhaps particularly landed knights bordering the Reach. Did the surviving Caron men have to swear their service to Philip? Are they part of Randyll's army, which seems to contain most of the Stormlanders in the field for the Crown.

Whatever the case, I'm very confident that Philip has not set foot in Nightsong yet. AFAWK, the Lannisters didn't take any hostages that could perhaps be used against the castellan or any of the garrison. Garlan took what, ~20000 men, to claim Brightwater - Philip may only have a few men in his service, likely fewer than 100, imo. The Lannisters haven't given him any forces to make good on his claim, neither have the Tyrells. Presumably, he's either been at court, or in Randyll's host, or with a Lannister one.

I'm inclined to think that Bryce didn't have any immediate/named heir, especially with Rolland claiming his brother's seat (although serving a rival king certainly is part of that). If so though, I'm surprised the Freys have not (AFAWK) argued their own claim to Nightsong through Perra. Unlikely really (particularly given her age & own rather high place in the Frey succession - as per normal lordly inheritance anyway), but I wonder if perhaps there has been some ravens between the Lannisters & the Freys, for a match between Perra & Philip to consolidate the claims.

I wonder what strength Nightsong has left? Bryce would've had some trusted man behind as castellan, especially as Rolland wasn't it. But how much influence would that guy have in marshaling remaining Caron forces among the domains? I think the forces of Nightsong may be somewhat negligible compared to what actually happens to the castle itself, with who ends up with it.

According to the A World of Ice & Fire app, Harvest Hall is between Blackhaven & Ashford, which certainly makes sense being on the northern edges of the Marches - more apt for the wheat fields their sigil & castle name suggest. They declared for Renly & had some strength at Storm's End, likely also some foot at Bitterbridge. We're not sure who after His Deadshitness, but I lean towards neutrality (if they could, which is a stretch) or the Lannister-Tyrells, rather than Stannis.

The Selmys are doing better than the Carons & Dondarrions in the currently ruling lord department, if not also outright succession. That kind of stability helps, as does their seat & lands not being so close to the border. That said, whether they are effectively neutral atm or with the "Baratheons", I think they would only add perhaps ~500 men to Aegon if they were to join or defect to him.

Like Blackhaven, I think Stonehelm is most key among the Marcher seats currently. AFAWK, the Swanns have perhaps only lost a few (dozen) sworn swords with Balon &/or Donnel, with their father keeping them his knights & men-at-arms at home. Now, as noted up-thread several times, Lord Gulian hasn't been keen to commit forces to anybody, but also there's hints that the Swanns may switch (nominal) sides again.

I doubt that will be under Lord Gulian, unless perhaps Donnel is able to convince him o/w. Though I think the elder son is more likely to be with Randyll's forces (or has been at court) than at Stonehelm, perhaps trying to prove his loyalty to his current king. If Dankstar, Obara, or Hotah kill Balon & his father hears of it, I don't imagine it will send him running to Aegon with the Dornish set to join him, & their forces being a threat since ACoK.

Nevertheless, a Balon vs Donnel scenario would be very interesting, if very unlikely. And if Clifford isn't actually a name change for Gulian & has actually usirped to become Lord of Stonehelm, well then the Swanns very well may declare for Aegon & JonCon - particularly being the closest of the Marcher lords to the Golden Company forces atm.

Despite seemingly heavy losses during Robert's Rebellion, the Swanns surely can field +1000 men atm, perhaps even as much as 2000.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The thing is, that we don't even know whether Ser Philip actually took possession of his new castle already. Garlan Tyrell is Lord of Brightwater yet he doesn't hold the castle yet, either. One assumes that Foote would have to go with a considerable force to Nightsong to force the garrison there to hand the castle over to him, and we don't know whether that has happened as of yet or not.

Foote last shows up in ASoS so it is possible that he left court but we don't know that.

If he already has taken possession of Nightsong then we can be very sure that the Caron men won't like that at all, especially if there are still some Caron cousins around who have claims to the castle.

I highly doubt that Philip Foote of the Westerlands is the recognized Lord of Nightsong outside of King's Landing. He was present at the wedding feasts in King's Landing before Storm, and enemies still in Riverlands and in the North, I doubt Tywin or Cersei would have lent him the men he might need to take possession of Nightsong. In fact, I think it is more likely that he's marching with Jaime's host in the Riverlands than sitting in the great Hall at Nightsong. And I think you're right about whoever is running the show there at Nightsong now would have a very strong incentive to back Aegon. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Lonmouths are interesting, too, of course, but they would be a rather small house.

The Lem = Richard Lonmouth makes thE BWB/Aegon dynamic very intriguing. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aside from the Conningtons and Wyldes those seem to be all rather small houses. The true power in the Stormlands seems to sit in the Marches, especially since they are the lords who apparently sent the least men to either Renly or Stannis, and are thus likely to make a real difference in the coming wars.

Still, I would expect Aegon ought be able to raise a few thousand men from Cape Wrath, the islands, and the land between Storm's End and the Wendwater. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whether the island lords can be forced to send more than token forces remains to be seen. You have to keep in mind that the Golden Company cannot really afford spare men to keep an entire island under control and/or to garrison the castles they have taken. They are dependent on winning allies, not antagonizing people.

The Estermonts are kin to the Baratheons so I don't think it likely they will commit themselves all that much (unless they decide to believe that Cersei's children are not Robert's) but Lord Selwyn seems be Aegon's cousin, so there is a chance that bestirs himself. However, we really have no idea how many more men the Tarths can muster. Brienne brought a token force to Renly.

The Golden Company should be able to use hostages to great effect here. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Should he defeat the Tyrell army then he should have the entire Stormlands. That should prove that he means real business. But I'm more interesting who might be inclined to join him before that happens, when he just has taken Storm's End. Surely that is a much more interesting thing.

The Penroses - about whose strength we know virtually nothing - also spring to mind. We don't know where Parchments is so they might not be Marcher Lords but they have quite a lot of Targaryen blood - Aelinor Penrose was Aerys I's cousin on the Targaryen side of the family, making her either a descendant of one of the five Targaryen-Hightower girls or a Velaryon, and the house got additional Targaryen blood from Princess Elaena's marriage to Ronnel Penrose. If the present day Penroses are descended from her son Robin then they should very well remember that. And Elaena's three daughters Laena, Jocelyn, and Joy might have married into Stormlander houses, too.

We all know that the Stormlanders are fiercely loyal to the Baratheons. But they are gone now - and even while they were there Steffon and his sons were essentially Targaryen-Baratheons. With them gone the Stormlanders might rediscover what connections they actually have to the Targaryens.

The Dondarrions might have Targaryen blood, too, if the Baelor-Jena marriage is any indication.

And we always have to keep in mind that Aegon's Hand and protector is a fellow Stormlord, Lord Jon Connington. The man might not be the most popular man in the Stormlands but he is a man many people would remember, and that whole fact would lend a lot of credence to Aegon's claim to be Rhaegar's son.

Aegon certainly won't attack them all by himself. But if they refuse to join them they might have to deal with 10,000 Dornishmen ravaging their lands without the prospect to get any support from the other Stormlords, the Reach (due to the Ironborn crisis) or the Iron Throne. They would be essentially fucked. In addition, Lord Swann doesn't seem to be all that determined, and Nightsong and Blackhaven might lack a clear and charismatic leader. Nobody in Nightsong is likely going to gladly die in the name of Lord Philip Foote of Nightsong!

What we little we know about what transpired there is that they did not really send many men to either Renly or Stannis (after Renly's death). They could not be sure how Dorne would react to Renly's coronation, and when Tyrion betrothed Myrcella to Trystane they would have gotten even more wary. Not to mention that they must have gotten reports of Doran marshaling armies in the two passes.

Well, they certainly could team up this time, for once? It depends how much they loved Robert and how pissed they are at the Lannisters for treating him the way they did (assuming they buy Stannis' story about the children, which is very likely considering that many of the men there must have known Stannis Baratheon for quite some time).

If Aegon and Dorne help them to get back at the Lannisters, and if the only other option they have is suffer their wrath it should be pretty easy which way they would go.

The latter could be the case, but Aegon might call on their help long before they learn about Arianne's involvement. They never supported either Stannis or Joffrey/Tommen wholeheartedly. Not even Renly, it seems (at least not with as many men as they could have mustered).

Outside of the Marches they might be war-tired. But not necessarily there. And the Reach first has to get a really bloody nose before they consider changing allegiances, and Aegon is not likely to get many men out of the Reach directly. It would be much more likely that he pulls a stunt like Robert and wins the allegiance of many of the Tyrell men marching against him.

Then he would have the strength and means to take the capital and the throne.

In regards to the Marcher Lords we should also keep House Peake in mind. If Laswell was referring to his cousin Titus as one of his Reach friends - and the man is actually Lord of Starpike - then he could bring a considerable force from there to Storm's End, convincing the other Marcher Lords in the Stormlands to join him on the way.

No Peake forces have been mentioned as being with Renly or Stannis' forces, suggesting that if Starpike still exists Lord Titus chose to stay out of the whole affair entirely. That could mean he has some men to spare now, unlike the Tarlys whose strength most likely marched with Renly and Randyll up to the Crownlands already.

The Merryweathers might also join Aegon at Storm's End with a pretty strong force but aside from that Aegon is much more likely only going to get full access to whatever men the Reach has to offer after he has defeated the Tyrell army marching against him. And that might then very much include House Tyrell itself (say, if he captures Mace either in battle or after he takes the capital).

I don't think Aegon has time to win the support of the Marcher Lords before his looming battle with Mace and/or Randyll. That battle is upon him. Other than Grandview and Fawnton, I think the other great castles of the Dornish Marches are too far away given the immediacy of the pending battle described in Arianne II, Winds. But those two house might be inclined to support him now. 

The Marcher Lords sided with Renly against Robert's son, even before Stannis accused Joffrey of illegitimacy, so I would not expect them to be loyal to Tommen after the accusations were stated, and with Tommen being propped up by Lanninster and Tyrell. In addition to Fell, Cafferen and Grandison were inclined to back Aerys over Robert before Robert subdued them. Perhaps some Targaryen loyalties remain at Grandview and Fawnton. And I suspect you're right about Penrose. I am guessing they are in the proximity of Storm's End, but that's just a guess. 

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In the case of house Estermont, Arianne's friend Sylva Santagar was just recently married to the elderly Eldon Estermont. I could see Sylva making a play to take control of Estermont (by finding a way to dispose of all the remaining estermonts at Greenstone) and declare for Aegon.

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4 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

@Lord Varys Good points. Yeah, I've long wondered what the Stormlords wil be doing going forward, in particular those from the Marches. And that's a good addition with mentioning their prowess as archers (though very few Dothraki have dragonbone given it's rarity, as it's prized by them, however, Jorah does say they are better than Westerosi ones - presumably besides weirwood - so they likely get them from the Forest of Qohor or Ifequevron).

The whole archer thing is the really interesting point there. Those Marcher archers could really make a difference. We learn how archers (on the side of the Lads) broke Borros Baratheon's Stormlander knights on the Kingsroad. If a rain of arrows kills half or more of the Tyrell knights before battle is joined then this could be quickly over.

4 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Now, it may be that Aegon & JonCon will court the Marcher lords directly if some of their forces head west against the Ironborn (though I don't see this until Aegon claims King's Landing or Tarly defects to him before facing him in the field - then he could take his army to the Reach) or with envoys (I doubt it, more like it will just be ravens), but I think the primary motivator for them to join the (first) Targaryen campaign or not will be the Dornish. Surely, the Carons & Dondarrions at least.

We know the intention is to have Aegon wash his hair and declare himself at Storm's End. Now, that means they are going to send ravens and that's going to trigger a reaction. The Tyrell army will then come down from KL but at the same time many Stormlords could gather at Storm's End, Marcher Lords included. Those men under @Wertheadfrom Weeping Town where already doing that despite the fact that Aegon hasn't even made his claim. All they had were news about the Golden Company and Jon Connington.

4 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

If Edric doesn't get Dankstar'd for Dawn (or survives, or simply goes to Blackhaven first), he may match Allyria (mayhaps she's even at Blackhaven instead of Sunspear) with some male Dondarrion to keep the alliance going (not only between the Houses, but to a degree on a greater level between Dornish & Marcher), or perhaps instead marry some female Dondarrion himself. We don't know if Beric had any heirs, close or distant, but I tend to think someone is at Blackhaven with a claim.

Somebody surely is at Blackhaven.

4 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Whatever the case, much (if not all) of Blackhaven's strength at home as it doesn't seem they declared for anyone during the Wot5K. How much do you think they can marshal? They & the Carons had ~4000 men & ~800 cavalry between them against the 206 Vulture King, but I tend to think that is towards the upper limit (indeed, they likely attracted a fair number of Ser Arlans, & there's all the wars the Stormlands have fought in since).

Since we don't know how many Stormlanders Renly had in his mixed army this is all different to say. There should be more men in the Marches than in the Rainwood and the Kingswood. The southern coastlines around the Weeping Town has quite a few people, though.

All the Marcher Lords might be able to field 5,000-10,000 men, although I think that some of those people must have gone with/to Renly and/or Stannis. And since they would have to raise men quickly now to join Aegon I'd expect them to somewhat beneath 5,000 in any case.

4 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Presumably, some measure of the Nightsong strength marched (& died) with Lord Bryce. Despite Philip Foote being awarded Nightsong, it's not unlikely some of the lands were awarded to others post-Blackwater, perhaps particularly landed knights bordering the Reach. Did the surviving Caron men have to swear their service to Philip? Are they part of Randyll's army, which seems to contain most of the Stormlanders in the field for the Crown.

Some Caron men must have been with Renly and Lord Bryce, but since only the cavalry was at Storm's End with Renly we have no idea what happened to the footmen. 

4 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

I'm inclined to think that Bryce didn't have any immediate/named heir, especially with Rolland claiming his brother's seat (although serving a rival king certainly is part of that). If so though, I'm surprised the Freys have not (AFAWK) argued their own claim to Nightsong through Perra. Unlikely really (particularly given her age & own rather high place in the Frey succession - as per normal lordly inheritance anyway), but I wonder if perhaps there has been some ravens between the Lannisters & the Freys, for a match between Perra & Philip to consolidate the claims.

He certainly doesn't seem to have an heir of his own body or a younger brother, but he could have an uncle, a first cousin, a second cousin and so forth. Perra Caron does not have to be a daughter or granddaughter, or great-granddaughter of a Lord Caron. Lord Walder got some good matches for his sons but we have no reason to believe that the spouses with great names actually come from the main branch of those houses.

4 hours ago, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

I wonder what strength Nightsong has left? Bryce would've had some trusted man behind as castellan, especially as Rolland wasn't it. But how much influence would that guy have in marshaling remaining Caron forces among the domains? I think the forces of Nightsong may be somewhat negligible compared to what actually happens to the castle itself, with who ends up with it.

That depends who has the command there. Ser Rodrik was pretty effective in raising troops and even winning the allegiance of other Northern lords.. And Stannis, too, when he was castellan.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I highly doubt that Philip Foote of the Westerlands is the recognized Lord of Nightsong outside of King's Landing. He was present at the wedding feasts in King's Landing before Storm, and enemies still in Riverlands and in the North, I doubt Tywin or Cersei would have lent him the men he might need to take possession of Nightsong. In fact, I think it is more likely that he's marching with Jaime's host in the Riverlands than sitting in the great Hall at Nightsong. And I think you're right about whoever is running the show there at Nightsong now would have a very strong incentive to back Aegon.

Yeah, if some Carons are still there - and even there aren't - this Foote thing is an insult the Marchers most likely won't suffer all that easily. And this could provide them with a chance to get back at the Lannisters.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The Lem = Richard Lonmouth makes thE BWB/Aegon dynamic very intriguing.

The Riverlands in general have every reason to either join or at least (morally) support Aegon. They have a common enemy in the Lannisters (and the Freys) and the Faith Militant movement seems to gather strength in the Riverlands. If the High Septon crowns or proclaims a new Targaryen king very few people in the Riverlands will object to that.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Still, I would expect Aegon ought be able to raise a few thousand men from Cape Wrath, the islands, and the land between Storm's End and the Wendwater. 

I guess the people from Massey's Hook could also join him. It would be interesting to see who the hell is the Lord Massey right now. Justin isn't. Lord Bar Emmon is a boy, and not likely to have gone with Stannis to Eastwatch.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The Golden Company should be able to use hostages to great effect here. 

That wouldn't be a good approach, though. They need to convince the people to join them, not try to blackmail or force them. If they had the upper hand that could work, but they don't. At least not while Dorne has not yet joined them.

The Lannisters can afford to force the Riverlords who bent the knee to help them besiege Riverrun. But if they were to actually have to fight a pitched battle in the Riverlands against a powerful enemy then they could not count on the support of the Riverlords at all. They would have to fear a Karstark-like betrayal.

If Aegon forced a score of Stormlords to fight at his side against the Tyrells by threatening hostages they would turn against him as soon as he showed any weakness. That is not the way to win a war.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't think Aegon has time to win the support of the Marcher Lords before his looming battle with Mace and/or Randyll. That battle is upon him. Other than Grandview and Fawnton, I think the other great castles of the Dornish Marches are too far away given the immediacy of the pending battle described in Arianne II, Winds. But those two house might be inclined to support him now. 

I see your point. It would depend how far into TWoW Arianne 2 and the eventual battle against the Tyrell forces is going to be. For all we know we get three Cersei chapters before Arianne 2 now, and many other chapters besides. Now, if the Marcher Lords decided to jump on the bandwagon of the Golden Company when they first learned about Connington's return it could work. Even if they decided to call their banners at that time, originally intent on retaking the Stormlands it could work. Then they would learn about Aegon's proclamation while they were still marshaling their men and could then arrive in time at Storm's End. Especially if the Tyrells are going to be late.

Keep in mind that we know Arianne 2 in the version it was when it was removed from ADwD. But Kevan was always to die in the Epilogue, so things might have be shuffled around rather prominently in there.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The Marcher Lords sided with Renly against Robert's son, even before Stannis accused Joffrey of illegitimacy, so I would not expect them to be loyal to Tommen after the accusations were stated, and with Tommen being propped up by Lanninster and Tyrell. In addition to Fell, Cafferen and Grandison were inclined to back Aerys over Robert before Robert subdued them. Perhaps some Targaryen loyalties remain at Grandview and Fawnton. And I suspect you're right about Penrose. I am guessing they are in the proximity of Storm's End, but that's just a guess. 

Yeah, but Renly was their liege lord and a Baratheon looking like Robert. And Tommen is still nominally/technically a Baratheon. Aegon isn't.

But there might indeed be quite a few Targaryen loyalists in the Stormlands, not just there kinsmen the Tarths, Penroses, and possibly Dondarrions. The Fells, Cafferens, and Grandisons might also play a role.

1 hour ago, HouseFossoway said:

In the case of house Estermont, Arianne's friend Sylva Santagar was just recently married to the elderly Eldon Estermont. I could see Sylva making a play to take control of Estermont (by finding a way to dispose of all the remaining estermonts at Greenstone) and declare for Aegon.

She could certainly help to push the Estermonts to go along with the Golden Company's demands, but for all we know Estermont isn't all that powerful. And neither is Tarth.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Some Caron men must have been with Renly and Lord Bryce, but since only the cavalry was at Storm's End with Renly we have no idea what happened to the footmen. 

Didn't Randyll butcher a bunch of men at Bitterbridge? 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That wouldn't be a good approach, though. They need to convince the people to join them, not try to blackmail or force them. If they had the upper hand that could work, but they don't. At least not while Dorne has not yet joined them.

The Lannisters can afford to force the Riverlords who bent the knee to help them besiege Riverrun. But if they were to actually have to fight a pitched battle in the Riverlands against a powerful enemy then they could not count on the support of the Riverlords at all. They would have to fear a Karstark-like betrayal.

If Aegon forced a score of Stormlords to fight at his side against the Tyrells by threatening hostages they would turn against him as soon as he showed any weakness. That is not the way to win a war.

I think we see in Arianne II, Winds that the Golden Company are gentler than the Lannisters, but I would expect them to at least show the stick when the carrot is not enough. 

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon certainly won't attack them all by himself. But if they refuse to join them they might have to deal with 10,000 Dornishmen ravaging their lands without the prospect to get any support from the other Stormlords, the Reach (due to the Ironborn crisis) or the Iron Throne. They would be essentially fucked. In addition, Lord Swann doesn't seem to be all that determined, and Nightsong and Blackhaven might lack a clear and charismatic leader. Nobody in Nightsong is likely going to gladly die in the name of Lord Philip Foote of Nightsong!

Except that they won´t. Cold logic will get you to the conclusion that the dornishmen need to join up with Aegon against the crown and fast, before the crown responds. So you wont have 10000 dornishment ravaging, you will have 10000 dornishment passing your lands (and some plunder certainly) but then leave as quickly to get north.

So the most logical response, especially if you don´t feel as loyal to the crown is to simply let them pass, doing nothing while sending no support to neither side. The dragon is not loved in Stormlands but neither is anyone else. If two people fight and you have no stakes, you stay out of it. Simple.

Now, certainly Aegon could try to bribe them (like giving, say the Swanns paramountship over the region). But the offer "Join me or lose your castle" should be met with a laughter.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What we little we know about what transpired there is that they did not really send many men to either Renly or Stannis (after Renly's death). They could not be sure how Dorne would react to Renly's coronation, and when Tyrion betrothed Myrcella to Trystane they would have gotten even more wary. Not to mention that they must have gotten reports of Doran marshaling armies in the two passes.

Exactly. Which gives us the logical conclusion. Help no king, conserve forces, watch the dornish.

Just because they don´t like the crown doesn´t mean Aegon is a good choice.

As for forces left, I somewhat agree. But war-tiredness is more than that. They will still have been affected morally by the low performance of Stormlords in the war of five kings. They know they are on their own if they try something. So therefore they will be careful joining any new side. After all, Storm´s End is just a castle. And they havn´t exactly won anything openly yet. Anyone can pull off one or two stealth moves.

And, Caron sent forces, Swann sent forces. Not everything certainly but I doubt they didn´t take losses.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, they certainly could team up this time, for once? It depends how much they loved Robert and how pissed they are at the Lannisters for treating him the way they did (assuming they buy Stannis' story about the children, which is very likely considering that many of the men there must have known Stannis Baratheon for quite some time).

If Aegon and Dorne help them to get back at the Lannisters, and if the only other option they have is suffer their wrath it should be pretty easy which way they would go.

But they have no real hate against the Lannisters as other regions do. They took the side of someone who had the weakest claim, got beaten and was given pretty cheap pardons. And now Stannis has abandoned them for the cold north. And few reprisals come from the crown.

Whatever loyalty they had for the baratheon bros should be weakened. Now it is time to think of your own survival. Especially with dornish around the corner.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The latter could be the case, but Aegon might call on their help long before they learn about Arianne's involvement. They never supported either Stannis or Joffrey/Tommen wholeheartedly. Not even Renly, it seems (at least not with as many men as they could have mustered).

He can call as much as he likes. Before he gets Arianne with on the train, there is little reason for the Marcher lords to listen. He is a foreign invader, fighting for the dragon - a side they never really supported who want to replace their lord paramount as king and has already invaded several castles belonging to their neighbors. I can´t see any reason why they should even bother to respond before he can threaten with Dorne. And even that threat is weak.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Outside of the Marches they might be war-tired. But not necessarily there. And the Reach first has to get a really bloody nose before they consider changing allegiances, and Aegon is not likely to get many men out of the Reach directly. It would be much more likely that he pulls a stunt like Robert and wins the allegiance of many of the Tyrell men marching against him.

Then he would have the strength and means to take the capital and the throne.

In regards to the Marcher Lords we should also keep House Peake in mind. If Laswell was referring to his cousin Titus as one of his Reach friends - and the man is actually Lord of Starpike - then he could bring a considerable force from there to Storm's End, convincing the other Marcher Lords in the Stormlands to join him on the way.

No Peake forces have been mentioned as being with Renly or Stannis' forces, suggesting that if Starpike still exists Lord Titus chose to stay out of the whole affair entirely. That could mean he has some men to spare now, unlike the Tarlys whose strength most likely marched with Renly and Randyll up to the Crownlands already.

The Merryweathers might also join Aegon at Storm's End with a pretty strong force but aside from that Aegon is much more likely only going to get full access to whatever men the Reach has to offer after he has defeated the Tyrell army marching against him. And that might then very much include House Tyrell itself (say, if he captures Mace either in battle or after he takes the capital).

Indeed, Aegon getting the loyalty of parts of the Reach is what is going to win him King´s landing. Not one or two marcher lords (who regardless will keep a sizeable force in their castles just in case.

As for Peake, I thought you only talked about the Stormlands? Well, the Reach and House Peake is certainly a possible candidate for joining Aegon. The Merryweathers might too (I am pretty much convinced that they take marching orders from Doran) but they are not a marcherlord, considering Longtables placement on a map right?

As for Stormlands, as I have said before - certainly some lord will join him. But most won´t nor send that much soldiers. There is little "oppotunistic fire", too little cause for a widespread successful mustering cry. And just having the dornish won´t be enough. Aegon need to sweeten that offer. And even then I can´t see more than one or two joining him in a best case scenario.

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2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Didn't Randyll butcher a bunch of men at Bitterbridge? 

Most Florent men. I doubt he dared to lay hands on the levies of some Stormlords. That might have cost him dearly. It would most definitely have led to some sort of battle between the men there.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think we see in Arianne II, Winds that the Golden Company are gentler than the Lannisters, but I would expect them to at least show the stick when the carrot is not enough. 

Still, they could only force garrison and already assembled men-at-arms to join anyone. The Mertyn men seem to be all away. Perhaps they have more luck with the Wyldes. The idea that they can take the time to actually muster men out of the lands of the castles they have taken is not very likely. Not to mention that those men are not likely to fight or even cooperate. I mean, just look how the people of Winterfell treated Theon - and those were men who actually knew and cared for their lord's sons. The denizens of some village a couple of miles away from some Stormlord's castle most likely never saw the men. They are not likely to answer the calls of some sellsword who invaded their lord's lands and captured his castle.

The only chance they have is to inspire other people into joining them. Anything else is not going to work. At least not on a larger scale.

And keep in mind that Aegon is going to take Storm's End. That will be a major as of yet unheard feature. Storm's End has never fallen to siege or storm. That is going to make a huge impression not only on the Stormlands but the entire Realm. Aegon doesn't have to be Rhaegar's son if he can pull off such a stunt which just so few men.

@Protagoras

Am understanding you correctly that you don't want the Marcher Lords to show up? I mean, if they sit everything out they will most likely never appear. Once Aegon marches against KL it is not all that likely that any POVs return to those places.

But if Aegon defeats the Tyrell army without the help of the Stormlords he might have the time to allow the Dornishmen to raid the Marches and crack those castles. He would not be in that much of a hurry to press on to KL.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

The dragon is not loved in Stormlands but neither is anyone else.

We actually don't know how a majority of the Stormlords feel about the dragons. Just as we don't know how the Lords of the West feel about them. That they were loyal to Robert (and Tywin) doesn't mean they were happy with Robert's Rebellion or the Sack, or that they felt never any loyalty for their kings.

In the Stormlands the Tarths, Penroses, possibly the Dondarrions, and the Fells, Cafferens, and Grandisons are likely positively inclined towards their Targaryen kin/overlords. 

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Now, certainly Aegon could try to bribe them (like giving, say the Swanns paramountship over the region). But the offer "Join me or lose your castle" should be met with a laughter.

Well, the Dornish threat certainly could have some effect, unless we assume they assume that Aegon cannot remain there for long. But they don't know that, can't be sure of his plans.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Just because they don´t like the crown doesn´t mean Aegon is a good choice.

If he takes Storm's End he will be. Those are martial men, supposedly. They would gladly follow a warrior-king like Robert once was. And if they can deal with some people they dislike in general - the Lannisters - why not?

Renly would never have had the success he had in the Stormlands if the Lannisters had been popular there. They were not. Cersei was always arrogant and cold, and nobody liked Tywin. Not to mention the Kingslayer.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

After all, Storm´s End is just a castle.

No, it is much more. It is a symbol of the rule over the Stormlands. And a symbol of invincibility.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Indeed, Aegon getting the loyalty of parts of the Reach is what is going to win him King´s landing. Not one or two marcher lords (who regardless will keep a sizeable force in their castles just in case.

Still, the Reach is not likely going to be able to spare any men who are down in the Reach. Whatever Reach men Aegon will end up having must be survivors of the coming battles against them. Aside from some few lords - Peakes and Merryweathers, perhaps - who may have called their banners but kept the men close to home the bulk of the remaining strength of the Reach is either in the far south with Willas and Garlan and preparing to retake the Shields, with Mace and Tarly in KL, in the Hightower lands, or with Paxter on board his war galleys.

There might be some men left in reserve at Highgarden, but unless we see a quick change in the heart of (a new?) Lord Tyrell those men would not declare for Aegon at once.

Lord Rowan is likely the first Reach lord to join Aegon - and that could have some effect on his contingent of the Reach men in the Tyrell army in KL right now - but he is not going to be able to teleport men to Storm's End that are right now either in the lands near Goldengrove or with Willas and Garlan.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

As for Peake, I thought you only talked about the Stormlands? Well, the Reach and House Peake is certainly a possible candidate for joining Aegon.

If Starpike is in the Reach, and Lord Titus is the Lord of Starpike, and Laswell Peake is sending a raven to the man he might come with some host. To get to Storm's End he would have to cross the Stormland Marches, a fact that would enable him to call upon his fellow Marcher Lords. The Peakes might to homage to Highgarden but are still fellow Marcher Lords.

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

The Merryweathers might too (I am pretty much convinced that they take marching orders from Doran) but they are not a marcherlord, considering Longtables placement on a map right?

No, they are not. I don't think they have anything to do with Doran. I think they work with Varys and the Golden Company since Orton might have fought with them during his exile. If so, then they knew in advance that Aegon would come eventually and worked to weaken their enemies - both the Lannisters and Tyrells. One would assume the first thing they would have done in such a scenario is to call their banners even before they returned back to Longtable - and as soon as they learned about the Golden Company's arrival they would have been on the march to Griffin's Roost.

Thus they would be one of the few lords outside the Stormlands who might actually join Aegon before he defeats anybody in the field.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Most Florent men. I doubt he dared to lay hands on the levies of some Stormlords. That might have cost him dearly. It would most definitely have led to some sort of battle between the men there.

Still, they could only force garrison and already assembled men-at-arms to join anyone. The Mertyn men seem to be all away. Perhaps they have more luck with the Wyldes. The idea that they can take the time to actually muster men out of the lands of the castles they have taken is not very likely. Not to mention that those men are not likely to fight or even cooperate. I mean, just look how the people of Winterfell treated Theon - and those were men who actually knew and cared for their lord's sons. The denizens of some village a couple of miles away from some Stormlord's castle most likely never saw the men. They are not likely to answer the calls of some sellsword who invaded their lord's lands and captured his castle.

The only chance they have is to inspire other people into joining them. Anything else is not going to work. At least not on a larger scale.

And keep in mind that Aegon is going to take Storm's End. That will be a major as of yet unheard feature. Storm's End has never fallen to siege or storm. That is going to make a huge impression not only on the Stormlands but the entire Realm. Aegon doesn't have to be Rhaegar's son if he can pull off such a stunt which just so few men.

 

Unfortunately, this is all we know for sure about what Randyll did at Bitterbridge...

Quote

"Lord Tarly has seized Renly's stores and put a great many to the sword; Florents, chiefly. Lord Caswell has shut himself up in his castle."

But if he did that to the Florents for going over Stannis, might he have done the same to the footmen of other lords who went over Stannis? And if he did, that would be strong incentive for the Marcher Lords to join Aegon. 

As to raising men, if Lord So and So has a knife to his daughter's throat (not really, but assuming the veiled threat is there behind the smile) Lord So and So, or his son, or his castellan might be more inclined to raise at least some men for Aegon. But again, that would only be if the carrot fails. 

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8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Unfortunately, this is all we know for sure about what Randyll did at Bitterbridge...

I know, but you have to keep in mind that some lords and noblemen must have remained with the foot at Bitterbridge. Loras, Tarly, Rowan, Oakheart, and all the Reach Lords not joining Stannis went back to Bitterbridge, presumably with a decent portion of the horse they had brought with them to Storm's End. However, Renly had allegedly 60,000 foot at Bitterbridge - minus the 20,000 horse he took with him to Storm's End.

The idea that Tarly could have committed a virtual holocaust on a lot of Stormlander foot resembling the Red Wedding just doesn't make a lot of sense. However, there clearly is a decent enough chance that Tarly and Loras went out of their way to silence any Florent men and other Reach men pushing them to join Stannis.

The best way to explain why the hell the foot of the Stormlords in Renly's retinue who joined Stannis at Storm's End did not join Stannis is that there weren't all that many Stormlanders men-at-arms there in the first place. Renly was crowned at Highgarden and did his huge royal progress through the Reach where so many men gathered around him. Many of his lords seemed to have joined him but not necessarily with as many men as they could have brought if they had had more time. The best example for this is the few men Brienne brought with her.

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But if he did that to the Florents for going over Stannis, might he have done the same to the footmen of other lords who went over Stannis? And if he did, that would be strong incentive for the Marcher Lords to join Aegon. 

If some of the Stormlanders were mistreated I could see that.

However, a much more interesting part is what the Stormlanders in the Tyrell army in KL right now will do if they are supposed to fight against their kin and lords in Aegon's camp.

The Stormlanders fighting for Stannis on at the Blackwater all throw away their weapons when Renly's ghost showed, submitting to Joffrey later on. Many of those men might still be in the army Tarly took with him to Duskendale and Maidenpool as well as the men Mace took to Storm's End and back.

The men Garlan took back to Highgarden in AFfC would be predominantly Reach men, not Stormlanders.

Thus we might be in for a surprise on the side Stormlords/Stormlanders amongst the Tyrell men marching against Storm's End - or later, if many of those men are deliberately left back to hold KL in Mace's and/or Tarly's absence.

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As to raising men, if Lord So and So has a knife to his daughter's throat (not really, but assuming the veiled threat is there behind the smile) Lord So and So, or his son, or his castellan might be more inclined to raise at least some men for Aegon. But again, that would only be if the carrot fails. 

Sure, that could work. But how much time do you think they have for this kind of thing. Nothing of this sort seems to be done in Mistwood, and the Connington lands seem to be pretty empty - Red Ronnet took quite a few men with him to Renly. Perhaps they will have more luck with the Wyldes and the Morrigens. We will have to wait and see. Lord Lester Morrigen and Ser Ormund Wylde remained loyal to Stannis, though.

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16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

@Protagoras

Am understanding you correctly that you don't want the Marcher Lords to show up? I mean, if they sit everything out they will most likely never appear. Once Aegon marches against KL it is not all that likely that any POVs return to those places.

Want? Want has nothing to do with it. I don´t think they will because I consider it unlikely.

The Marcher Lords are supposed to be the marquises of Westeros, guarding a hostile border against a known enemy. Ignoring said job and throwing in with an invader with few direct connections to them doesn´t strike me as likely. And if said invader ally with said known enemy, then I would expect them to be even more sceptical. They might not like the capital, but why would they just on a whim join said invader?

Unless of course they are offered alot for doing so I see it simply more likely that they weather out the storm so to speak. And for me this is the main one. Their motivation. They need to be bought, while you somehow think that they will join Aegon based on future rewards, his martial ability and their so-called hatred of the Lannisters, which never struck me as that strong. Certainly, one house might see an opportunity, but why change a winning strategy? The Stormlords just received a peace. Why break it, unless offered something. I simply don´t see the vendetta, the "cause" that will make them muster - instead of just another Yawn. "Look, we have another king. They are multiplying again. Hehe". 

So for me this comes more down to "What are Aegon willing to do to get their support? Will he parley with them?". And to that my answer is: No, I don´t think he will. He will ignore them since he see them as a spent force more interested in holding the passes and who cannot defeat the Golden company anyway. And they will ignore him in turn. And the dornish will pass their lands, in some cases with a fight, in some cases not. I suppose you will get a footnote about it and maybe one or two houses who decides to be more active. Sure, Selmy and Swann have done nothing as houses, but they both have profilic individuals already taking part. Maybe GRRM felt that was enough. 

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