Rhaegar sacrificed himself to Robert

[Aegon VII]

On March 16, 2017 at 5:07 AM, Nezza86 said:

snip.

Excellent theory! Really great connection with the leeches.

Some things I think support it,

1) rhaegar waould have been melancholy because he knew he would have to sacrifice himself and/or Lyanna, as someone else pointed out upthread.

2) I don't have a quote atm but isn't there a line about how the crown prince sought out the usurper at the trident? Suggesting rhaegar intended to fight Robert 1 on 1, even though rhaegar had the numbers and Robert was thought of as the better warrior. Rhaegar doing this is largely irrational unless your theory is true. ( the only other reason I can think would be if it was to stop unnecessary deaths on both sides). Besides rhaegar had a few of the kingsguard  only way he's fighting Robert instead of them is if he chooses to.

3)a lot of the text suggests rhaegar was doing things purposely to create the next tptwp, we know part of this is the mother dying in childbirth. Would rhaegar be willing to risk Lyanna surviving and their child not getting enough magic because of it? It's incredibly dark, but who knows what GRRM is capable of. 

4) goes well with the always despised, Mance =Rhaegar theory. He could have been resurrected at the quiet isle, trade his harp for a lute, and go north to assume a knew identity, continuing his goal of trying to save the realm.

5) his comments to Jaime would support your theory being false. Perhaps he was intentionally lying to try to make sure Jaime wouldn't pull a wildcard while he was gone. Considering Jaime pulls the biggest wild card of all and murders the king I'd say rhaegar would have been right to be concerned and try to calm him.

That's all for now, thank you for the theory. 

great food for thought!

 

[LindsayLohan]

4.  Explain this to me.  I read it all the time, except Mance was raised by the Night's Watch.  Is there some random though that Rhaegar was a time-traveler and I'm not aware? 

[devilish]

16 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Silly me then, forgetting the details on that one. I'm good with general history but my father and sister are better at the military aspects. Should have called Daddy first and asked. 

I have to say I've been thinking about this the last several minutes and I'm not sure I'd fault Lewyn Martell for being a bit slower than usual when it came to protecting the guy who cheated on his niece. But Barristan and Jonothor had no such motivation and we all know how good Barristan is, even 15 years later.

I don't think the KG were at fault to be honest. Most were fiercely loyal to Rhaegar to the point of abandoning their king to nanny his bastard. I am more likely to point my finger to the big families TBH. See things from their POV.

Rhaegar goes to Harrenhal were he humiliated his own wife by first crowning Lyanna as the queen of beauty and then kidnaps Lyanna. That, in itself, is a diplomatic nightmare with many houses curious of how the King would act to it. I mean, thing about it. That girl could have easily been a Tyrell, a Lannister or any beautiful noble girl with a powerful father or husband. Its in their interest to see how the Targs would react to it. 

Suddenly Brandon Stark makes goes to KL and challenge the crown prince for a duel. Some might take this news as a sigh of relief. Thanks to Brandon Aerys now has a hostage to keep things at bay. Aeys, acts in a mature way by asking Rickard to come and answer for his son's crime. These two men has alot to relate to, considering that they both have first born sons who did something very stupid at their parent's back. Surely a cuppa of wine and some sort of an arrangment can be made with Aerys forgiving Brandon's crimes and Rickard's forgiving Rhaegar's. Aerys might make an example out of it by disowning Rhaegar and promising that every effort will be spent to bring Lyanna back. That would send the Starks home happy.

The massacre that follows take everyone by surprise. Rickard and Brandon end up dead in the most cruel way possible. Aerys doesn't stop there. He orders Jon Arryn to kill the LP of the Stormlands and the now Warden of the North, giving the man no choice but to rebel. Westeros is in a civil war, something no one predicted and certainly no one liked. Thousands will die, crops will go to waste and the kingdom will go to war all because Rhaegar couldn't keep it in his pants and Aerys had decided to go full nazi on everyone.

Some decide to stay neutral while the Tyrells decide to take their king side. The Targeryans had given the Reach to the Tyrells and surely they couldn't abandon them in times of need. The Martells join the war out of respect to Elia and her chidren. Yet the king added insult to injury by threatening them. 

The war starts pretty well for the loyalists, with the Reach being able to inflict Robert's only defeat. Yet time pass, hand of the kings are dismissed and new ones are appointed and yet, the King does nothing to honour the people who brought around a 50k army to the fray. Meanwhile on the other front, Robert is building quite a reputation. While Rhaegar is busy pollinating his kidnapped Stark with no care to the world, Robert had been busy fighting the darn thing, leading by example by getting his hands dirty and showing great mercy towards those who were defeated. 

Anyway, a decisive battle comes up and suddenly his royal highness decide to honour those who had been fighting his war for him with a rare appearance of his. He comes to the battle of the trident like a schoolboy in his first day of school, wearing his lovely armour of his who had no dent whatsoever. Since he's the crown prince then he probably starts giving his say of how to fight and were to strike. 

I'll be very surprised if no one betrayed him at that point

 

 

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

4 hours ago, devilish said:

I don't think the KG were at fault to be honest. Most were fiercely loyal to Rhaegar to the point of abandoning their king to nanny his bastard. I am more likely to point my finger to the big families TBH. See things from their POV.

Rhaegar goes to Harrenhal were he humiliated his own wife by first crowning Lyanna as the queen of beauty and then kidnaps Lyanna. That, in itself, is a diplomatic nightmare with many houses curious of how the King would act to it. I mean, thing about it. That girl could have easily been a Tyrell, a Lannister or any beautiful noble girl with a powerful father or husband. Its in their interest to see how the Targs would react to it. 

Suddenly Brandon Stark makes goes to KL and challenge the crown prince for a duel. Some might take this news as a sigh of relief. Thanks to Brandon Aerys now has a hostage to keep things at bay. Aeys, acts in a mature way by asking Rickard to come and answer for his son's crime. These two men has alot to relate to, considering that they both have first born sons who did something very stupid at their parent's back. Surely a cuppa of wine and some sort of an arrangment can be made with Aerys forgiving Brandon's crimes and Rickard's forgiving Rhaegar's. Aerys might make an example out of it by disowning Rhaegar and promising that every effort will be spent to bring Lyanna back. That would send the Starks home happy.

The massacre that follows take everyone by surprise. Rickard and Brandon end up dead in the most cruel way possible. Aerys doesn't stop there. He orders Jon Arryn to kill the LP of the Stormlands and the now Warden of the North, giving the man no choice but to rebel. Westeros is in a civil war, something no one predicted and certainly no one liked. Thousands will die, crops will go to waste and the kingdom will go to war all because Rhaegar couldn't keep it in his pants and Aerys had decided to go full nazi on everyone.

Some decide to stay neutral while the Tyrells decide to take their king side. The Targeryans had given the Reach to the Tyrells and surely they couldn't abandon them in times of need. The Martells join the war out of respect to Elia and her chidren. Yet the king added insult to injury by threatening them. 

The war starts pretty well for the loyalists, with the Reach being able to inflict Robert's only defeat. Yet time pass, hand of the kings are dismissed and new ones are appointed and yet, the King does nothing to honour the people who brought around a 50k army to the fray. Meanwhile on the other front, Robert is building quite a reputation. While Rhaegar is busy pollinating his kidnapped Stark with no care to the world, Robert had been busy fighting the darn thing, leading by example by getting his hands dirty and showing great mercy towards those who were defeated. 

Anyway, a decisive battle comes up and suddenly his royal highness decide to honour those who had been fighting his war for him with a rare appearance of his. He comes to the battle of the trident like a schoolboy in his first day of school, wearing his lovely armour of his who had no dent whatsoever. Since he's the crown prince then he probably starts giving his say of how to fight and were to strike. 

I'll be very surprised if no one betrayed him at that point

I agree with a lot of this except that I think some level of slaughter was absolutely foreseeable after Brandon committed high treason by shouting for Rhaegar to "come out and die." It wasn't "hey bro, let's duel and if I win I get my sister back" it was a direct threat to the life of the heir to the throne...done in the castle where sat his father the crazy king whose idea of a good time is barbecuing people who have annoyed him.

If Brandon had gone to his father first, and let Rickard handle things, it might have been a different story. Rickard would certainly have gone to the king and demanded justice of some kind or another, but he would not have made any threats. They might actually have been able to have that cup of wine and commiserate about impulsive firstborn sons. The delay between Brandon finding out and Rickard getting to KL might have meant finding Aerys in a fairly sane frame of mind.

[devilish]

18 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I agree with a lot of this except that I think some level of slaughter was absolutely foreseeable after Brandon committed high treason by shouting for Rhaegar to "come out and die." It wasn't "hey bro, let's duel and if I win I get my sister back" it was a direct threat to the life of the heir to the throne...done in the castle where sat his father the crazy king whose idea of a good time is barbecuing people who have annoyed him.

If Brandon had gone to his father first, and let Rickard handle things, it might have been a different story. Rickard would certainly have gone to the king and demanded justice of some kind or another, but he would not have made any threats. They might actually have been able to have that cup of wine and commiserate about impulsive firstborn sons. The delay between Brandon finding out and Rickard getting to KL might have meant finding Aerys in a fairly sane frame of mind.

Did they even knew?

Madness/Paranioa and absolute power doesn't mix well with one another. Aerys paranoia meant that everyone close to him enough to acknowledge is madness would stay in line.

It was also within Targ family interest strategy to keep Aerys madness a secret. After dragons died out the Targs were in one hell of delicate position. They were rulers of Westeros but with direct rule only on the weakest region of the kingdom. Egg was not a popular king among the LPs/Wardens and the war of 9 penny kings gave these noblemen the confidence needed in their own ability to work together to get rid of a potential threat to Westeros without Targ intervention. Sure, the LP and wardens were sworn to obey the king. However would that apply to a mad king? Also considering that the Targ family suffered from mental issues would it be wiser to limit the king's power and facilitate their exit if needed? Are the Targ even needed anymore?

TBF some sort of information did spilled out. In a thread I wrote I showed how the so called 'Northern conspiracy' (ie when LP families joined houses through marriage), actually started in the Westerlands, specifically by Joanna Lannister who wanted her children to marry within the Martell family. Joanna died, Tywin tried to marry Jamie to Lysa instead and during the negotiations something must have started a series of prestigious marriages which strengthened the LPs/Wardens hands

However, its one thing for Hoster Tully to suspect that something is odd and its another thing for a Stark  (especially Brandon) to do the same. The Starks lived in relative isolation with the Stark's pinnacle in Westerosi politics lasted erm less then a week (ie the hour of the wolf). No Stark had ever served in the KG or married a Targ, which is clear evidence that they couldn't be bothered about KL, the Targs and the king's state of mind. Things get even more complicated with Brandon whom at the time was busy working on having a couple of Snows on the side. He probably didn't even know what's going on in Winterfell let alone KL. 

Which leads us to the second question

So what?

Madness was part of being Targeryan. As they said the god flips a coin and all that. Its one thing being mad, something LPs had learnt to live with in terms of Targs and its another going full nazi against the warden of the North + his heir and order the death of two others. No one, not even Aegon the conqueror had ever done such a thing.

I think that the real issue here were 

- a clash of two different cultures who barely ever had contact with one another. The Northerners tend to sort things personally (executions and all). The Targs, on the other hand, believe in a structure were power comes from the king and then delegated to others. Brandon bypassed the structure of power by challenging Rhaegar instead of asking Aerys to intervene

- Aerys madness which lead to an unexpected and unprecedented massacre +  forced Ned, Robert and old Arryn to rebel. (Arryn was too honourable to break guest rights + its not as if Robert/Ned would willingly remove their heads either)

Aerys overreaction must have shocked everyone in Westeros, with LPs wondering when they will be next. With Aerys turning less grateful to his loyalists as compared to Robert who shared wine with both enemies and friends, I am sure that they would be wondering if it was time for a change

[Lady Blizzardborn]

6 hours ago, devilish said:

Did they even knew?

Madness/Paranioa and absolute power doesn't mix well with one another. Aerys paranoia meant that everyone close to him enough to acknowledge is madness would stay in line.

It was also within Targ family interest strategy to keep Aerys madness a secret. After dragons died out the Targs were in one hell of delicate position. They were rulers of Westeros but with direct rule only on the weakest region of the kingdom. Egg was not a popular king among the LPs/Wardens and the war of 9 penny kings gave these noblemen the confidence needed in their own ability to work together to get rid of a potential threat to Westeros without Targ intervention. Sure, the LP and wardens were sworn to obey the king. However would that apply to a mad king? Also considering that the Targ family suffered from mental issues would it be wiser to limit the king's power and facilitate their exit if needed? Are the Targ even needed anymore?

TBF some sort of information did spilled out. In a thread I wrote I showed how the so called 'Northern conspiracy' (ie when LP families joined houses through marriage), actually started in the Westerlands, specifically by Joanna Lannister who wanted her children to marry within the Martell family. Joanna died, Tywin tried to marry Jamie to Lysa instead and during the negotiations something must have started a series of prestigious marriages which strengthened the LPs/Wardens hands

However, its one thing for Hoster Tully to suspect that something is odd and its another thing for a Stark  (especially Brandon) to do the same. The Starks lived in relative isolation with the Stark's pinnacle in Westerosi politics lasted erm less then a week (ie the hour of the wolf). No Stark had ever served in the KG or married a Targ, which is clear evidence that they couldn't be bothered about KL, the Targs and the king's state of mind. Things get even more complicated with Brandon whom at the time was busy working on having a couple of Snows on the side. He probably didn't even know what's going on in Winterfell let alone KL. 

Which leads us to the second question

So what?

Madness was part of being Targeryan. As they said the god flips a coin and all that. Its one thing being mad, something LPs had learnt to live with in terms of Targs and its another going full nazi against the warden of the North + his heir and order the death of two others. No one, not even Aegon the conqueror had ever done such a thing.

I think that the real issue here were 

- a clash of two different cultures who barely ever had contact with one another. The Northerners tend to sort things personally (executions and all). The Targs, on the other hand, believe in a structure were power comes from the king and then delegated to others. Brandon bypassed the structure of power by challenging Rhaegar instead of asking Aerys to intervene

- Aerys madness which lead to an unexpected and unprecedented massacre +  forced Ned, Robert and old Arryn to rebel. (Arryn was too honourable to break guest rights + its not as if Robert/Ned would willingly remove their heads either)

Aerys overreaction must have shocked everyone in Westeros, with LPs wondering when they will be next. With Aerys turning less grateful to his loyalists as compared to Robert who shared wine with both enemies and friends, I am sure that they would be wondering if it was time for a change

Excellent points but as you said it did leak out. Keeping secrets in a medieval court was difficult at best. Servants gossip. Nobles gossip. The best-kept secret in King's Landing might well have been that Aerys' madness was no secret at all. And Westeros conveniently has a reliable air-mail service. No one could police all the messages sent from the capital via raven to be sure no mention was made of the king being mad.

There's really not much chance that the higher-ups in Westeros (the Wardens of the compass, and/or Lords Paramount) would not be aware of the king's insanity. I could see them keeping that from the smallfolk, and the younger members of their families, but Rickard should have known it, and he should have told his heir in case he met an untimely end and Brandon became Lord of Winterfell while Aerys still sat the throne.

The fact of the Targ madness being well-known rather argues for my point that people should have had some expectation of fireworks. Aerys was reclusive, refusing to have blades near him, and burning people before the Stark issue came up. He had a taster test the wetnurse's milk for baby Viserys, and burned all the gifts sent for him in case they were cursed. No matter how carefully everyone tried to protect the illusion of the king's mental health, there's very little chance of their having been successful at that for as long as six years (from Viserys' birth to Lyanna's abduction).

As I mentioned on another thread, even if Aerys had been sane, what Brandon did was still high treason and monumentally stupid. It was the last thing he should have done if he wanted his sister back unharmed. And he still would have known that the power structure of their society meant that it was not his place to deal with the situation. He should have at the very least sent someone back to Winterfell while he raced to King's Landing and then holed up at an inn to wait for his father's instructions.

[devilish]

12 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Excellent points but as you said it did leak out. Keeping secrets in a medieval court was difficult at best. Servants gossip. Nobles gossip. The best-kept secret in King's Landing might well have been that Aerys' madness was no secret at all. And Westeros conveniently has a reliable air-mail service. No one could police all the messages sent from the capital via raven to be sure no mention was made of the king being mad.

There's really not much chance that the higher-ups in Westeros (the Wardens of the compass, and/or Lords Paramount) would not be aware of the king's insanity. I could see them keeping that from the smallfolk, and the younger members of their families, but Rickard should have known it, and he should have told his heir in case he met an untimely end and Brandon became Lord of Winterfell while Aerys still sat the throne.

The fact of the Targ madness being well-known rather argues for my point that people should have had some expectation of fireworks. Aerys was reclusive, refusing to have blades near him, and burning people before the Stark issue came up. He had a taster test the wetnurse's milk for baby Viserys, and burned all the gifts sent for him in case they were cursed. No matter how carefully everyone tried to protect the illusion of the king's mental health, there's very little chance of their having been successful at that for as long as six years (from Viserys' birth to Lyanna's abduction).

As I mentioned on another thread, even if Aerys had been sane, what Brandon did was still high treason and monumentally stupid. It was the last thing he should have done if he wanted his sister back unharmed. And he still would have known that the power structure of their society meant that it was not his place to deal with the situation. He should have at the very least sent someone back to Winterfell while he raced to King's Landing and then holed up at an inn to wait for his father's instructions.

I beg to differ once more. Medieval life was pretty simple. No internet, no newspapers to sell stories too, no mobile phones etc. Court jobs were often inherited from father to son. That family would built a fortune out of that job and wouldn't know what to do rather then that job. Therefore it was within their interest to keep silent and not piss the king off, especially a king with paranoia whose got a fetishness with burning people alive. Propaganda was also in firm royal family hands. Take for example Richard III. Up until they dig his bones up we barely know anything about the man, because the Tudor family that succeeded him changed history for their own agenda

In GOT things are even worse. Westeros is way bigger then the UK + the only reliable way of communicating at long distance was through well trained ravens. Its easy for the crown to control that exit point

Don't take me wrong, information did spill out. For example Pycelle was in Lannister payroll while Varys was in Illyio's one. However, considering the risks, it usually went at a very high price, only paid by people who had an interest in KL.

The Starks didn't had neither the money nor the interest to know such things. They probably knew that the Targs had a problem with madness but they didn't care too much about it, since the Targ had never ever bothered them before and there was no signs of Targs doing that now. Also don't forget that Aerys madness degenerated with time, so people who met him in his 'better' years (ex Rickard when Aerys went to the wall with plans of invading the true North) would think that the king they met back then is the same man that they will meet now and tbf there's nothing to suggest back then that he was cuckoo enough to burn wardens and heirs

In my opinion what made Aerys tick is way more complicated then Brandon simply going to KL and say stupid things. The Targs were frustrated of having lost their dragons. They knew that because of such sad event, their power was slowly but surely eroding and that was evident during Egg's administration. King Egg was determined to push for reforms in favour of the smallfolk, but found a concrete wall around him which forced him to compromise and sometimes back down. Brandon unintentionally hit the Targ's pride were it hurts by going in their seat of power and demanding the crown prince to duel with him. Something had to be done to put these Lords back to their place. Unfortunately for the Targs he did the wrong thing at the wrong time. 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

6 hours ago, devilish said:

I beg to differ once more. Medieval life was pretty simple. No internet, no newspapers to sell stories too, no mobile phones etc. Court jobs were often inherited from father to son. That family would built a fortune out of that job and wouldn't know what to do rather then that job. Therefore it was within their interest to keep silent and not piss the king off, especially a king with paranoia whose got a fetishness with burning people alive. Propaganda was also in firm royal family hands. Take for example Richard III. Up until they dig his bones up we barely know anything about the man, because the Tudor family that succeeded him changed history for their own agenda

In GOT things are even worse. Westeros is way bigger then the UK + the only reliable way of communicating at long distance was through well trained ravens. Its easy for the crown to control that exit point

Don't take me wrong, information did spill out. For example Pycelle was in Lannister payroll while Varys was in Illyio's one. However, considering the risks, it usually went at a very high price, only paid by people who had an interest in KL.

The Starks didn't had neither the money nor the interest to know such things. They probably knew that the Targs had a problem with madness but they didn't care too much about it, since the Targ had never ever bothered them before and there was no signs of Targs doing that now. Also don't forget that Aerys madness degenerated with time, so people who met him in his 'better' years (ex Rickard when Aerys went to the wall with plans of invading the true North) would think that the king they met back then is the same man that they will meet now and tbf there's nothing to suggest back then that he was cuckoo enough to burn wardens and heirs

In my opinion what made Aerys tick is way more complicated then Brandon simply going to KL and say stupid things. The Targs were frustrated of having lost their dragons. They knew that because of such sad event, their power was slowly but surely eroding and that was evident during Egg's administration. King Egg was determined to push for reforms in favour of the smallfolk, but found a concrete wall around him which forced him to compromise and sometimes back down. Brandon unintentionally hit the Targ's pride were it hurts by going in their seat of power and demanding the crown prince to duel with him. Something had to be done to put these Lords back to their place. Unfortunately for the Targs he did the wrong thing at the wrong time. 

I disagree. The ravens are what make it impossible to keep the secret. The royal family can only control ravens sent from their own castle, and that's only if their maester is completely loyal...which Pycelle wasn't.

I was not suggesting people at court or elsewhere were yukking it up about the crazy king, but that they quietly whispered amongst themselves and cautiously spread the word. None of them would have dared say anything to Aerys, or Rhaella, or Rhaegar about it, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't have known.

Lord Rickard took a definite interest in southern goings-on. Without such he would never have betrothed Brandon to a Tully or Lyanna to a Baratheon. He had the interest. He didn't have to have money. He had ravens, and servants, and he spent time at court himself. 

The Starks actually should have cared about the Targ madness once they had an agreement in place for a Targ princess to marry into House Stark. Cregan set that baby up. Even as time elapsed the idea would have stayed. Why else would Rickard allow his only daughter to marry into House Baratheon unless he remembered that House Baratheon can feed into House Targaryen through marriage, which would in turn remind the Targs that they were supposed to send a princess north?

The Targs had never bothered them before? Torrhen might not agree. He bent the knee but only to avoid having his people slaughtered. He wasn't pleased about the match Queen Rhaenys set up for his daughter either. And the Starks who lost the New Gift might have had something to say about Targaryens bothering them.

You're almost suggesting that no one in Westeros communicates, which is unlikely given how much plotting goes on. With or without the Great Northern Conspiracy, it would be wise of the four Wardens at least to keep each other up to date, and keep in contact with the crown. With Pycelle handling the messages who knows what all might have been let slip to Winterfell, Highgarden, the Eyrie, and Casterly Rock.

Yes, Aerys got worse as time went on, but he was having issues prior to Duskendale. After is when the downhill slide began in earnest, and there were only five years between Duskendale and Rhaegar's taking Lyanna which means Aerys went down fast, but there was still plenty of time for word to leak out...especially with Tywin's lapdog running the rookery.

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I disagree. The ravens are what make it impossible to keep the secret. The royal family can only control ravens sent from their own castle, and that's only if their maester is completely loyal...which Pycelle wasn't.

I was not suggesting people at court or elsewhere were yukking it up about the crazy king, but that they quietly whispered amongst themselves and cautiously spread the word. None of them would have dared say anything to Aerys, or Rhaella, or Rhaegar about it, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't have known.

Lord Rickard took a definite interest in southern goings-on. Without such he would never have betrothed Brandon to a Tully or Lyanna to a Baratheon. He had the interest. He didn't have to have money. He had ravens, and servants, and he spent time at court himself. 

The Starks actually should have cared about the Targ madness once they had an agreement in place for a Targ princess to marry into House Stark. Cregan set that baby up. Even as time elapsed the idea would have stayed. Why else would Rickard allow his only daughter to marry into House Baratheon unless he remembered that House Baratheon can feed into House Targaryen through marriage, which would in turn remind the Targs that they were supposed to send a princess north?

The Targs had never bothered them before? Torrhen might not agree. He bent the knee but only to avoid having his people slaughtered. He wasn't pleased about the match Queen Rhaenys set up for his daughter either. And the Starks who lost the New Gift might have had something to say about Targaryens bothering them.

You're almost suggesting that no one in Westeros communicates, which is unlikely given how much plotting goes on. With or without the Great Northern Conspiracy, it would be wise of the four Wardens at least to keep each other up to date, and keep in contact with the crown. With Pycelle handling the messages who knows what all might have been let slip to Winterfell, Highgarden, the Eyrie, and Casterly Rock.

Yes, Aerys got worse as time went on, but he was having issues prior to Duskendale. After is when the downhill slide began in earnest, and there were only five years between Duskendale and Rhaegar's taking Lyanna which means Aerys went down fast, but there was still plenty of time for word to leak out...especially with Tywin's lapdog running the rookery.

We agree that only those close to the king would know he’s a bit cuckoo and can bring proof that they aren’t lying. Out of that restricted amount of people few are willing to risk their life and their wealth by leaking information.

Now if lets say Lord Paramount Hoster Tully is able to convince the Queen’s maidservant to leak private information and she’s caught, then she will be tortured. If his name comes out then there’s every chance for Aerys to declare him an enemy of the state and have him judged for treason. Therefore that restricted group of people (ie they are close enough to the king to be trusted + they are willing to betray the royal family) must also be able to leak that information safely. A communication line can be built between the spy and the LP. The more complex such system becomes, the more likely that mistakes are made or people acting as double agents would be involved.  The Ridolfi plot was unveiled thanks to a friend of the Spanish ambassador + Cosimo De Medici who had absolutely nothing to do with the English succession the crown but still warned Elisabeth to garner favour with the English crown

So in few words, the number of people who would be interested in leaking information and have the infrastructure to do it in a relatively safe manner is very very small. It’s within these people interest to sell the information to a very small group of people (possibly 1 or maximum 2 that they can trust) and at a very high price. Which leads us to the receiving end ie whose willing to buy such information? LPs barely had any contact with the king and in their region they were kings in all but name. Why risk everything for such information? It only takes a lost raven who somehow ending up at the twins instead of Riverrun or a courier who wants to make a quick buck by selling the information to competitors as well to end up in deeeep crab.

If you ask me, I can only think of two people who were close enough to the king, lacked loyalty to the crown and had the means to leak the information in a safe way. Those two people are Varys and Pycelle. I can only think of two people who were close enough to the two people I previously mentioned to earn such high trust and were willing to buy this information despite the risks involved ie former hand of the king Tywin and Varys old friend Illyio.

So how do I explain the so called Southern ambitions? Ie 3 things

a-    Egg’s reforms pissed LPs off who wanted to make sure that they are strong enough to withstand another possible ‘revolutionary’ king . The Targs might have got away with such reforms when they had dragons. However the dragons were dead now and they simply had to adapt to new circumstances. 
b-    The battle of 9 penny kings. That battle was clear proof that LPs can work together to sort international issues (IE an invasion) without Targ help, if they want to. It also allowed many people from different regions to bond
c-    The Lannisters.  Joanna Lannister set a precedent when she invited the Martells at CR with the idea of marrying the lion with the spear. After her death, Tywin pushed for a marriage between lion and dragon and between lion and trout. Such strategy caught up with other Lords who saw sense in such matchups. The Tullys might have had trouble appeasing Brackens, Blackwoods and Freys and had therefore decided to marry off his daughters to outsiders who would bring to war more men than these houses can ever dream of bringing. Same thing about the North whose Lords are extremely proud and quick to take a slight. Imagine if Rickard had decided to turn down the Umbers offer for Lyanna to marry her off to a Glover. No one would really complain about an LP (and the king's cousin) marrying Lyanna off because he's way higher in the ranks then them

I don’t think that Rickard knew how mad Aerys was. If that was the case then he would certainly kept the wild wolf under a short leash and he would have never gone to KL with just a token force.
 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

1 hour ago, devilish said:

We agree that only those close to the king would know he’s a bit cuckoo and can bring proof that they aren’t lying. Out of that restricted amount of people few are willing to risk their life and their wealth by leaking information.

Now if lets say Lord Paramount Hoster Tully is able to convince the Queen’s maidservant to leak private information and she’s caught, then she will be tortured. If his name comes out then there’s every chance for Aerys to declare him an enemy of the state and have him judged for treason. Therefore that restricted group of people (ie they are close enough to the king to be trusted + they are willing to betray the royal family) must also be able to leak that information safely. A communication line can be built between the spy and the LP. The more complex such system becomes, the more likely that mistakes are made or people acting as double agents would be involved.  The Ridolfi plot was unveiled thanks to a friend of the Spanish ambassador + Cosimo De Medici who had absolutely nothing to do with the English succession the crown but still warned Elisabeth to garner favour with the English crown

So in few words, the number of people who would be interested in leaking information and have the infrastructure to do it in a relatively safe manner is very very small. It’s within these people interest to sell the information to a very small group of people (possibly 1 or maximum 2 that they can trust) and at a very high price. Which leads us to the receiving end ie whose willing to buy such information? LPs barely had any contact with the king and in their region they were kings in all but name. Why risk everything for such information? It only takes a lost raven who somehow ending up at the twins instead of Riverrun or a courier who wants to make a quick buck by selling the information to competitors as well to end up in deeeep crab.

If you ask me, I can only think of two people who were close enough to the king, lacked loyalty to the crown and had the means to leak the information in a safe way. Those two people are Varys and Pycelle. I can only think of two people who were close enough to the two people I previously mentioned to earn such high trust and were willing to buy this information despite the risks involved ie former hand of the king Tywin and Varys old friend Illyio.

So how do I explain the so called Southern ambitions? Ie 3 things

a-    Egg’s reforms pissed LPs off who wanted to make sure that they are strong enough to withstand another possible ‘revolutionary’ king . The Targs might have got away with such reforms when they had dragons. However the dragons were dead now and they simply had to adapt to new circumstances. 
b-    The battle of 9 penny kings. That battle was clear proof that LPs can work together to sort international issues (IE an invasion) without Targ help, if they want to. It also allowed many people from different regions to bond
c-    The Lannisters.  Joanna Lannister set a precedent when she invited the Martells at CR with the idea of marrying the lion with the spear. After her death, Tywin pushed for a marriage between lion and dragon and between lion and trout. Such strategy caught up with other Lords who saw sense in such matchups. The Tullys might have had trouble appeasing Brackens, Blackwoods and Freys and had therefore decided to marry off his daughters to outsiders who would bring to war more men than these houses can ever dream of bringing. Same thing about the North whose Lords are extremely proud and quick to take a slight. Imagine if Rickard had decided to turn down the Umbers offer for Lyanna to marry her off to a Glover. No one would really complain about an LP (and the king's cousin) marrying Lyanna off because he's way higher in the ranks then them

I don’t think that Rickard knew how mad Aerys was. If that was the case then he would certainly kept the wild wolf under a short leash and he would have never gone to KL with just a token force.
 

Reliable information sure. But you're forgetting about the gossip factor. As long as no one said it in front of the royal family, no one would be able to contain the gossip.

Even if Varys reported that people were talking, he'd never say who it was specifically, because he didn't want to start a war at that point. He likely would have passed it off as idle speculations from meaningless people who were not even worthy of the king's notice.

I'm not thinking spy networks, or buying info. I'm thinking of the very natural human inclinations to speculate and talk. Let's invent a young lady who has been serving at court...Synarda Greenbore of the Westerlands. She hears a rumor about the king, and witnesses some strange behvior (heck even seeing him with his hair untrimmed and nails uncut would be enough). She may not do or say a thing while in KL but she might write to her best friend while stopped somewhere on the way home. Let's say her best friend is Tyna Odbrook, daughter or Ser Byron Odbrook, a retainer of House Marbrand. Tyna gets the raven message, and mentions to her mother what Synarda said about the king. Lady Odbrook, Tyna's mother, asks to see the letter and of course shows it to her husband Ser Byron, who tells one of the Marbrands about it.

Lord Marbrand goes to visit Cousin Tywin, who at this point no longer cares whether anyone is treating Aerys with the proper respect. Tywin makes casual mention in a message to Lord Tully that the king seems to be declining, and let us all hope he will rally as he has done in the past. Hoster is smart enough to know Tywin didn't put that in the message for larks. His daughter is going to marry Brandon so he sends a message to Rickard, similarly careful in his wording but again the point gets through. Rickard sends a message to Jon Arryn with whom Ned and Robert are staying, two birds-one stone there. Elia would have written to her own family about her father-in-law, at least about him being rude to her and the baby.

It's not hard to see a round-raven, so to speak, going on. Done mostly in terms that can't be used against anyone, but with everyone involved knowing exactly what is meant. It would be kept to the upper-crust, the Lords Paramount at most, and the Odbrooks and little Miss Greenbore would be quite easily induced to keep their mouths shut. 

Joanna Lannister was hardly setting a precedent. Queen Rhaenys Targaryen made inter-region matches between children of Lords Paramount. What had Aerys worried was probably that Lord Stark was looking as far south as the Riverlands and a royal house, when traditionally the Starks don't look farther south than the Vale. Add to that Rickard allying himself with the Tullys who were also trying to ally themselves with Tywin. Aerys might not have worried about anything else but Tywin being involved in any kind of plot would have set him off big time. This is the guy who thought Tywin and Rhaegar conspired to set up Duskendale. Tywin is like a trigger word for Aerys.

For Rickard to have controlled Brandon in this would have meant being with Brandon when Brandon heard the news. 

The "token force" he took to KL was made up mostly of the fathers of Brandon's companions--who had also been charged with treason and whose fathers were also summoned. No doubt Rickard hoped that keeping his group small would help to convince Aerys that there was no conspiracy, just hid hot-headed idiot of a son and some boys who didn't have the guts to do anything but follow a jerk like Brandon.

I can agree that Rickard didn't know the full extent of Aerys' madness, but if he knew his history he would have known that any madness in a Targaryen can be seriously dangerous. And he would be remiss in his duties as a father if he made no mention of the king being mad to his heir. Brandon just didn't stop to think. He acted on pure rage, from jumping to the worst possible conclusion.

[Therae]

30 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

<snip>

There were a lot of people, including all of the Stark children, at Harrenhal to see for themselves:

Quote

If that was indeed the king's intent, it was a grievous miscalculation. Whilst his attendance made the Harrenhal tourney even grander and more prestigious than it already was, drawing lords and knights from every corner of the realm, many of those who came were shocked and appalled when they saw what had become of their monarch. His long yellow fingernails, tangled beard, and ropes of unwashed, matted hair made the extent of the king's madness plain to all. Nor was his behavior that of a sane man, for Aerys could go from mirth to melancholy in the blink of an eye, and many of the accounts written of Harrenhal speak of his hysterical laughter, long silences, bouts of weeping, and sudden rages. (WoIaF, Year of the False Spring)

I will grant that Yandel may be exaggerating for the benefit of his Lannister/Baratheon patrons, but there were a lot of eyewitnesses still living, so he couldn't have gone too far off the rails with the state Aerys was in--and Yandel's information was most likely colored directly by the gossip that came from Harrenhal.

And then there was that whole idea that the KotLT was his enemy.

tl:dr: Brandon should have had some idea that Aerys was a nutjob, and between all his kids and all the lords who were at Harrenhal, Rickard should have heard enough to be concerned.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

2 minutes ago, Therae said:

There were a lot of people, including all of the Stark children, at Harrenhal to see for themselves:

I will grant that Yandel may be exaggerating for the benefit of his Lannister/Baratheon patrons, but there were a lot of eyewitnesses still living, so he couldn't have gone too far off the rails with the state Aerys was in--and Yandel's information was most likely colored directly by the gossip that came from Harrenhal.

And then there was that whole idea that the KotLT was his enemy.

tl:dr: Brandon should have had some idea that Aerys was a nutjob, and between all his kids and all the lords who were at Harrenhal, Rickard should have heard enough to be concerned.

Very good point. I briefly forgot about Harrenhal.

[Therae]

I think even Varys couldn't have done anything about the gossip after Harrenhal. Save maybe throw his hands in the air and start making plans for the future.