Danerys is Ned Stark's bastard daughter

[Red Man Racey]

11 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I think it would depend on the individual 8 year old. Some would definitely be able to tell the difference, but some wouldn't. 

Babies in the RK would be kept in their nurseries a lot of the time. They wouldn't have been taken to the royal apartments or to official court functions. I doubt Viserys would have seen them except in passing. And with Aerys being paranoid the poor kid probably didn't get to go out much either.

Viserys was pretty oblivious to a lot even as a grown up. There's no way of knowing how much his budding madness interfered during childhood. But even Barristan noticed something was off with the prince, and he only saw him up to age seven. I think any argument, for or against anything, which hinges on Viserys' powers of observation, is probably doomed. 

People always point out that, as a child, Viserys wouldn't be able to tell the difference between an infant and a toddler. This assertion may or may not be true, but my argument is that it is irrelevant since this plot doesn't just need to fool Viserys; Ser Darry must also be deceived or he must be in on it. Ser Darry is old enough to recognize the difference between an infant and a toddler so it's unlikely that he was deceived. Therefore he must be in on it, but why would he divert attention from protecting the true Targaryen heir to help protect some random baby who will require additional care? This casts doubt that he was in on a baby swap plot. In my mind, a Dany baby swap just doesn't work:  it requires too many moving parts, too much secrecy, and for too little (if any) gain.

[LynnS]

I doubt that Varys is any less scrupulous about witnesses than Littlefinger.  We have Ser Dontos as an example and Varys will do what he deems right for realm.  This comes from someone who traffics in children and then has their tongues cut out.  As far as we know Willem Darry was keeping Dany secret for Aerys.   He was his master at arms and deeply loyal to the Targs.  Easy to get rid of him when Varys needed to make use of her.  From what I can tell; there would be very few moving parts.   There is no swap at birth.  There is just a bunch of lies and missing witnesses.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

9 hours ago, LynnS said:

I don't think we are ever going to get all the information about who was present at Dragonstone.  I think it's likely that there were very few in attendance because the circumstances suggest a hasty departure, at night, under secrecy.  That's Varys' MO. The simplest explanation would be for mother and child to have died a the same time and to send Viserys accross the Narrow Sea shortly afterwards, with the story that his sister had survived but was being hidden elsewhere.   He doesn't need to know more than that.  He's not going to know the difference between a 4 year old or a 5 year old when they are next hooked up.  She does remember the feeling of someone with soft hands (Varys).  Willem Derry was an old warhorse and not likely to be soft-handed.  Of course, Derry dies very conveniently at the appropriate time; likely the last person to know the facts about Dany.  Dany's story about the servants robbing them blind is also false; since Viserys still had his mother's crown.   So it's a discrepancy in the story and suggests that Viserys wasn't with Dany throughout her infant/toddler years.  She's produced as a substitute when it suits Varys' and Illyrio's purposes and Viserys thinks she is his full sister; rather than his half sister.  

Most people go with what they have been told repeatedly.  Very few people step outside the comfort zone for fear of being smacked back into line.  Not unlike Dany's situation with Viserys.  

That would work better.

But the story about the servants stealing from them doesn't have to be false. Viserys probably either never let his mother's crown out of his sight, or kept it hidden in a place no one else would think to look. But he definitely could have exaggerated the situation. Maybe the servants just took all the cash and easily sold items. If one of them had shown up somewhere with a crown, that would have been hard to explain.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

5 hours ago, Red Man Racey said:

People always point out that, as a child, Viserys wouldn't be able to tell the difference between an infant and a toddler. This assertion may or may not be true, but my argument is that it is irrelevant since this plot doesn't just need to fool Viserys; Ser Darry must also be deceived or he must be in on it. Ser Darry is old enough to recognize the difference between an infant and a toddler so it's unlikely that he was deceived. Therefore he must be in on it, but why would he divert attention from protecting the true Targaryen heir to help protect some random baby who will require additional care? This casts doubt that he was in on a baby swap plot. In my mind, a Dany baby swap just doesn't work:  it requires too many moving parts, too much secrecy, and for too little (if any) gain.

Well the only way the idea works at all is if Rhaella herself is in on it and swears all of her servants and devoted followers to secrecy. That would include Ser Willem. 

Adding a baby wouldn't be diverting attention from protecting Viserys. And if Dany was Rhaegar's child she could end up being a potential heir as well. Plus if the queen made him promise, he would do it.

I don't believe there was any swap. I'm just saying it's possible...but only for a Targaryen family member, not for Ned Stark.

[Nevets]

20 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Well the only way the idea works at all is if Rhaella herself is in on it and swears all of her servants and devoted followers to secrecy. That would include Ser Willem. 

Adding a baby wouldn't be diverting attention from protecting Viserys. And if Dany was Rhaegar's child she could end up being a potential heir as well. Plus if the queen made him promise, he would do it.

I don't believe there was any swap. I'm just saying it's possible...but only for a Targaryen family member, not for Ned Stark.

That would require an awful lot of people to keep a secret for 17 years, and we haven't got so much as a rumor that anything was wrong.  Even an individual as well-informed as Kevan Lannister has no doubts about Danerys's legitimacy.

Also, a royal birth requires a royal baby.  Given Rhaelle's known health issues, if a live newborn isn't quickly presented, people will be suspicious, and tongues will start wagging.  And still be wagging when Stannis arrives a short time later.  Which would probably mean smuggling a baby into Dragonstone through a blockade.  I see an awful lot of moving parts, and no reason for the fake Daenerys's mother (whoever that may have been) to go along with it.  Or for her or her family to keep quiet if they didn't go along with it.  So I agree that there was no swap.  I also agree that anytheory has to include at least one Targaryen parent, as sheis clearly Targaryen.  The dragons and visions prove as much.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

16 minutes ago, Nevets said:

That would require an awful lot of people to keep a secret for 17 years, and we haven't got so much as a rumor that anything was wrong.  Even an individual as well-informed as Kevan Lannister has no doubts about Danerys's legitimacy.

Also, a royal birth requires a royal baby.  Given Rhaelle's known health issues, if a live newborn isn't quickly presented, people will be suspicious, and tongues will start wagging.  And still be wagging when Stannis arrives a short time later.  Which would probably mean smuggling a baby into Dragonstone through a blockade.  I see an awful lot of moving parts, and no reason for the fake Daenerys's mother (whoever that may have been) to go along with it.  Or for her or her family to keep quiet if they didn't go along with it.  So I agree that there was no swap.  I also agree that anytheory has to include at least one Targaryen parent, as sheis clearly Targaryen.  The dragons and visions prove as much.

Kevan Lannister is well-informed?

Rhaella was on Dragonstone, not in the middle of King's Landing. There wasn't going to be a proclamation, and her family had been dethroned. All it would take is having the baby to be switched there before she gives birth. Then when she does give birth and the baby is dead or dies shortly after she orders the switch and makes the few people involved (one or two ladies, a midwife, Ser Willem and say two or three other guys) swear to say the living baby is hers. The dead one is either buried or cremated with Rhaella after her own death.

The only way the swap is remotely possible is if the baby is Rhaegar's. So we're looking at a child of Lyanna's or Ashara's. Both children in question would be born early enough that Stannis and his blockade are not there yet. It would not be difficult to get a small boat from Dorne to Dragonstone before any enemy ships assembled. 

As to the mothers....if it's Lyanna, she's dead. If it's Ashara, she'd either be dead or the one who smuggled herself and her child out of Dorne in the first place. Neither family is going to have a problem with it. The Daynes were pro-Targ and they and Ned would both know the danger of any child of Rhaegar's being in Westeros. The only issue with Ashara being the mother would be where the heck did she go after dropping her baby off with grandma Rhaella? But that's a question that could be answered easily enough. 

I have to say that while I still believe that Dany is Aerys and Rhaella's daughter, and that Tyrion is Tywin's son, there is a kind of odd appropriateness to the idea that the three heads of the dragon could all be Targaryen bastards. Knowing how most of Westeros feels about bastards, being saved by a trio of them would be kind of cool. The third of course being Jon.

 

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Kevan Lannister is well-informed?

Rhaella was on Dragonstone, not in the middle of King's Landing. There wasn't going to be a proclamation, and her family had been dethroned. All it would take is having the baby to be switched there before she gives birth. Then when she does give birth and the baby is dead or dies shortly after she orders the switch and makes the few people involved (one or two ladies, a midwife, Ser Willem and say two or three other guys) swear to say the living baby is hers. The dead one is either buried or cremated with Rhaella after her own death.

The only way the swap is remotely possible is if the baby is Rhaegar's. So we're looking at a child of Lyanna's or Ashara's. Both children in question would be born early enough that Stannis and his blockade are not there yet. It would not be difficult to get a small boat from Dorne to Dragonstone before any enemy ships assembled. 

As to the mothers....if it's Lyanna, she's dead. If it's Ashara, she'd either be dead or the one who smuggled herself and her child out of Dorne in the first place. Neither family is going to have a problem with it. The Daynes were pro-Targ and they and Ned would both know the danger of any child of Rhaegar's being in Westeros. The only issue with Ashara being the mother would be where the heck did she go after dropping her baby off with grandma Rhaella? But that's a question that could be answered easily enough. 

I have to say that while I still believe that Dany is Aerys and Rhaella's daughter, and that Tyrion is Tywin's son, there is a kind of odd appropriateness to the idea that the three heads of the dragon could all be Targaryen bastards. Knowing how most of Westeros feels about bastards, being saved by a trio of them would be kind of cool. The third of course being Jon.

 

While they may have been overthrown, they are still royalty in exile, at least.  as such, a birth is still a big deal, and an invisible child is going to raise suspicion.  Also, if Rhaelle is pregnant and there is the possibility of a live birth, then you could easily have an extra child to deal with, and twins of noticeably different ages is probably not going to work.

I don't believe that either Ned or the Daynes would regard Dragonstone or exile as being safer than Dorne. Especially once Rhaegar was defeated, which meant that Dragonstone would be, at best, a temporary refuge.   What, the Daynes can't keep a secret?  We know that Ned certainly can.  And unless they proclaim her as Rhaegar's, there is little that Robert is going to be able to do anyway.  And the only way she's heir to the throne is if Rhaegar was married to her mother, and for that you would need proof, and acceptance of polygamy.  Plus she's a girl, which for the Targs is an additional problem.  While I think that there is something suspicious about her past, her parentage isn't it.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

13 minutes ago, Nevets said:

While they may have been overthrown, they are still royalty in exile, at least.  as such, a birth is still a big deal, and an invisible child is going to raise suspicion.  Also, if Rhaelle is pregnant and there is the possibility of a live birth, then you could easily have an extra child to deal with, and twins of noticeably different ages is probably not going to work.

I don't believe that either Ned or the Daynes would regard Dragonstone or exile as being safer than Dorne. Especially once Rhaegar was defeated, which meant that Dragonstone would be, at best, a temporary refuge.   What, the Daynes can't keep a secret?  We know that Ned certainly can.  And unless they proclaim her as Rhaegar's, there is little that Robert is going to be able to do anyway.  And the only way she's heir to the throne is if Rhaegar was married to her mother, and for that you would need proof, and acceptance of polygamy.  Plus she's a girl, which for the Targs is an additional problem.  While I think that there is something suspicious about her past, her parentage isn't it.

Yeah it all depends on Rhaella's baby not living. And while that's consistent with her past pregnancies it wasn't worth betting on.

Exile is safer than being anywhere in Robert's realm. Even Dorne was subject to him. Ned was only able to keep Jon with him because he took after Lyanna instead of Rhaegar. If Dany had been Jon's twin Ned would have left her in their care and left the details of keeping her safe up to them to decide. It would not have been his choice to take her to Rhaella.

Sure the Daynes can keep a secret, which is why Ashara as her mother doesn't really go well. They could just claim the baby took after grandpa Dayne (if he had the silver-gold hair and purple eyes). The reasons for Ashara giving her baby up to Rhaegar's mother would have to be really good ones. And unless Rhaegar found something about a female member of House Dayne in his books I can't think why he'd have any kind of special task for Ashara that would require her to give up a baby.

Being Rhaegar's bastard would be dangerous enough. If she were the only person left with any decent amount of Targ blood, she could be legitimized and thus become the heir. Being a girl wouldn't make her an additional problem for the Targs, any more than Daenerys as herself (Aerys and Rhaella's) being a girl was a problem.

I don't think there's anything suspicious about Dany other than that she may be mixing up memories from very early in her life, or may have stayed in Dorne temporarily and not realize it.

[melx]

if she were ned`s daughter she would be very ugly and Dany is not ugly she is beautiful

[Nevets]

17 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I don't think there's anything suspicious about Dany other than that she may be mixing up memories from very early in her life, or may have stayed in Dorne temporarily and not realize it

I think her having been in Dorne makes a lot of sense.  It would mean that the Dornish were in deeper for longer than anyone realizes.  And it would make sense that Darry was the glue holding it all together, so that when he died, it fell apart and they had to leave.  It would also account for the repeated mentions of lemons being from Dorne.

[Whitering]

Lol