It's not Alys Karstark, either

[Chris Mormont]

On 3/21/2017 at 8:46 AM, Springwatch said:

There is still a bit of room for doubt, from the fact that it was Mance who matched the description to Long Lake - and Mance is an intelligent man, and well-travelled, and a Northerner - so he should have a good idea of the changing seasons and at what point the lake would freeze over. More idea than we do.

Mance is a Northerner, but he was raised at the Wall and spent most of his life beyond it.  There is no evidence that he ever traveled further South than Winterfell, so I wouldn't consider him an expert on Westeros geography.  Furthermore, it is not like he saw the vision, it was being described to him.  He probably assumed Long Lake because that is the only large lake he knows.

[TheSeer27]

The first time I read Dance I didn't really think twice about Alys but on a re-read I found it really odd. I don't agree that she is actually Arya. But I do think she could be someone else other than Alys. The whole thing is very strange. She seemed ok with marrying the Thenn and actually almost seemed like she expected it. Could she be one of the spearwives Mance took with him to Winterfell? Could be part of Mance's "ploy". Also does Jon even have the authority to broker this marriage? He said it was his idea. Yes he is LORD Commander but the NW is supposed to stay out of affairs of the Realm, can't imagine making marriage alliances is part of being Lord Commander. Also the guy who she was running from (cant think of his name of the top of my head) acts really bizarre when hes been imprisoned after a while. Howling like a wolf and throwing his feces at guards? Da fuck? I don't know, whole thing is very strange.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

On 21-3-2017 at 11:12 AM, ShadowCat Rivers said:

Not like this though.

Remember, when in Catelyn's POV we got info about Jon Arryn having arranged his son to be fostered with Stannis, revealing a motive and thus pointing to Lysa as an alternative suspect for his murderer? (In Cat's discussion with Walder Frey, of all people). There, the author deliberately drew attention to the passed info, using a dialogue of the style "Are you sure you're sure? -I'm fucking sure, what of it". That's entirely different to using some (overly) vague reference to a geographic discrepancy, as suggested in this thread, one that no character seems to ever question, only us clever readers, which, if true, would create bigger and way more noticeable discrepancy in the timeline. (I don't intend to get into Winds of Winter released content here, but everyone who has read Mercy will know of the timeline problem.)

 

Arya has her own story, and her story requires her to deal with a lot of stuff before getting anywhere close to Jon. As she's a main character, showing all that in a short passing note and fast track her into the northern storyline after a couple of chapters, simply won't do.

This is why I suggested Lyanna earlier, we haven't seen any past visions from Mel, but she's supposed to have those as well, and I always wondered why we didn't see any past visions, and how Mel could possibly know the difference. Besides, Lyanna's the connection to Jon is stronger than the Alys one. I also have the idea that Mel's visions are usually Targ related, which would fit nicely with the theories about Mel being Bloodraven's daughter. Lyanna is also connected to Rhaegar, Jon and even Robert, who all have Targ blood.

Lyanna would also be grey, and turn to ashes, since her fire has already burned out. 

On 21-3-2017 at 11:53 AM, King Ned Stark said:

I think it is Lyanna Stark.  Jeyne never made it to a lake of that size, Arya doesn't fit because the lake is starting to freeze, and Alys would have had to nearly double the length of her route to fit.

The wording Martin uses while Arya and Gendry are traveling along the Gods Eye is the same as used by Mel to Mance.

And, even as Mel watched, the grey girl blew away. 

Exactly, and the tourney in Harrenhal was in the year of the false spring, so after these events, winter would start again and the gods eye would freeze again. 

[a black swan]

1 hour ago, Chris Mormont said:

Mance is a Northerner, but he was raised at the Wall and spent most of his life beyond it.  There is no evidence that he ever traveled further South than Winterfell, so I wouldn't consider him an expert on Westeros geography.  Furthermore, it is not like he saw the vision, it was being described to him.  He probably assumed Long Lake because that is the only large lake he knows.

Exactly. The information he was using was coming from Mel. She only admits to herself that she has no clue where this girl really is. She wants the girl to be heading North to placate Jon and win his trust. Everything about the unwanted marriage and coming for Jon's protection was her conjecture based on nothing in the vision. 

There are other options of who this girl could be, but Alys is certainly the most obvious red herring. 

 

[a black swan]

1 hour ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

This is why I suggested Lyanna earlier, we haven't seen any past visions from Mel, but she's supposed to have those as well, and I always wondered why we didn't see any past visions, and how Mel could possibly know the difference. Besides, Lyanna's the connection to Jon is stronger than the Alys one. I also have the idea that Mel's visions are usually Targ related, which would fit nicely with the theories about Mel being Bloodraven's daughter. Lyanna is also connected to Rhaegar, Jon and even Robert, who all have Targ blood.

Lyanna would also be grey, and turn to ashes, since her fire has already burned out. 

Exactly, and the tourney in Harrenhal was in the year of the false spring, so after these events, winter would start again and the gods eye would freeze again. 

 

About the False Sping, wasn't that just a small window though, a few months? It was winter before and was winter right after. Do you really think that small window of time was enough to thaw the huge Gods Eye lake to just a "thin coat of ice". ?

Plus, Lyanna was found "ten leagues from Harrenhal", would that be enough distance to be anywhere near the western shore? 

There is also this to consider:

Quote

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King’s Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.
— THE FALL OF THE DRAGONS, THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE

Blackwater Rush is even further south. 

Don't think the Gods Eye was just thin ice during the false spring. 

If it is Arya, it just means she leaves Braavos a lot sooner than we all expect. Mercy was supposed to be a part of AFFC right before it got split into two with ADwD? The time laspe between Arya's last chapter and Mercy could be very short. 

 

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

11 minutes ago, DutchArya said:

 

About the False Sping, wasn't that just a small window though, a few months? It was winter before and was winter right after. Do you really think that small window of time was enough to thaw the huge Gods Eye lake to just a "thin coat of ice". ?

Plus, Lyanna was found "ten leagues from Harrenhal", would that be enough distance to be anywhere near the western shore? 

There is also this to consider:

Blackwater Rush is even further south. 

Don't think the Gods Eye was just thin ice during the false spring. 

 

 

Well I'm no hero with distances, so I did some googling, 10 leagues appears to be about 55 km, or 34 miles, and the distance between Casterly Rock and Lannisport is 40 miles according to a reddit entry, so let's say she would be more or less as far removed from Harrenhal as Casterly Rock and Lannisport, since we don't know how exact these 10 leagues estimation is...

It seems that Harrenhal is right in the middle of the North bank, if we look at this map,  and the God's Eye is sort of egg shaped, so whether you'd choose East or west, you'd always be going more or less south (or at least within 40 miles/ten leagues). So in my opinion it would work. 

 

Climate is not really consistent, as in that it doesn't get warmer or colder in equal amounts the further you go south. I live in the Netherlands for instance, and, although our location is quite far up north, we rarely have very harsh winters. This is because our climate is quite humid. It's often cloudy,or rainy, which causes mild temperatures, so not very hot during the day, and relatively warm during the night,  while for instance the south of France can have much colder nights in winter, and even in summer. It rarely gets colder than 3-4 degrees Celsius below zero here, which is not all too different than what you may see in the south of France, or even Spain. It's just a different sort of weather, with much less sun, and less extreme temperatures than elsewhere. We usually get loads of wet snow, that melts as soon as it touches the ground, and I can imagine that it would be similar in the Riverlands for most of the winter. 

I think the climate in the Riverlands is quite similar to the Netherlands (we have lots of water/rivers here as well), and may even have served as an inspiration to George. The Riverlands seem like THE rainy area in the books, and this humid weather would keep it from being much colder in winter than King's Landing. Whether or not the ice would've melted, depends a bit on how how hard the lake had been frozen before, and how hot the false spring was exactly. So it's rather hard to judge. I think it's not impossible, but it depends a lot on the exact circumstances. 

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

@DutchArya I think your Dutch as well looking at your name lol, didn't realise that in my previous post.

Anyway I'd like to add that I think that GRRM didn't think the whole climate thing through to be fair, since the area's that seem to have a sort of Mediterranean climate (like the reach), don't really have anything like the Mediterranean Sea or the 'right' surrounding of mountains to make it work entirely in real world terms. Also the stormy, and apparently not specifically warm climate in the stormlands, doesn't really seem logical looking at its location roughly between the reach and the Crowlands, same goes for the depressing weather on Dragonstone... So we can safely assume that apart from the weird, unstable seasons, the climate doesn't really follow real world logic. However, there are regional climates that can be roughly compared to real world climates, whether this is entirely logical going by their location or not. So I think it's relatively safe to make some small predictions about how the weather may behave in specific areas in winter.

So I'd still say that even though summer may be hotter in KL, winter could possibly be colder, and even though it may start snowing earlier in the Riverlands, the snows in KL may still be thicker, and less wet, and lakes and rivers may freeze over thicker, and more quickly, and take longer to melt. It truly depends on what George wants though. 

[a black swan]

46 minutes ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Whether or not the ice would've melted, depends a bit on how how hard the lake had been frozen before, and how hot the false spring was exactly. So it's rather hard to judge. I think it's not impossible, but it depends a lot on the exact circumstances. 

I agree. The circumstances are unknown but the possibility is there. We just know for certain that Alys really was just a red herring. You can't rule out Arya or Lyanna. The significance of the event might be played out in the coming book, especially, if like I said earlier - this could be an indication on how soon Arya could be back in Westeros. 

[Springwatch]

2 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

<snip>

Climate is not really consistent, as in that it doesn't get warmer or colder in equal amounts the further you go south. I live in the Netherlands for instance, and, although our location is quite far up north, we rarely have very harsh winters. This is because our climate is quite humid. It's often cloudy,or rainy, which causes mild temperatures, so not very hot during the day, and relatively warm during the night,  while for instance the south of France can have much colder nights in winter, and even in summer. It rarely gets colder than 3-4 degrees Celsius below zero here, which is not all too different than what you may see in the south of France, or even Spain. It's just a different sort of weather, with much less sun, and less extreme temperatures than elsewhere. We usually get loads of wet snow, that melts as soon as it touches the ground, and I can imagine that it would be similar in the Riverlands for most of the winter. 

I think the climate in the Riverlands is quite similar to the Netherlands (we have lots of water/rivers here as well), and may even have served as an inspiration to George. The Riverlands seem like THE rainy area in the books, and this humid weather would keep it from being much colder in winter than King's Landing. Whether or not the ice would've melted, depends a bit on how how hard the lake had been frozen before, and how hot the false spring was exactly. So it's rather hard to judge. I think it's not impossible, but it depends a lot on the exact circumstances. 

Good points, but I'd add that Westeros winters sound like a step change in the climate - something like the cooling that would happen in northern Europe if the Gulf Stream stopped bringing warm seawater up from the south.

5 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

Mance is a Northerner, but he was raised at the Wall and spent most of his life beyond it.  There is no evidence that he ever traveled further South than Winterfell, so I wouldn't consider him an expert on Westeros geography.  Furthermore, it is not like he saw the vision, it was being described to him.  He probably assumed Long Lake because that is the only large lake he knows.

There was actually some very precise information in the vision: the great size of the lake, and the fact that it was just freezing over. So it comes down to Mance's knowledge and judgement. I think he knows a lot:

• Honestly, no-one would survive north of the wall if they weren't wise to the weather.
• No-one would be King of the Wildings if they weren't intelligent.
• He is well-travelled. He acts the wandering bard so well that most likely he has been an wandering bard for a considerable time. That would give him access to all the northern great households - why wouldn't he go and have a look? He says, "I know every bawdy song that's ever been made, north or south of the Wall...." So he's travelled enough to meet a lot of bards and other singers.
• He knows Long Lake. He has 'hidey-holes' there that he uses from time to time.
• He has a hunger for adventure and knowledge. When he heard King Robert was coming to Winterfell, he thought nothing of racing south and finding a way to embed himself in the royal entourage. Why? He says, "It was too choice a chance to resist." and "I wanted to see this Robert with my own eyes, king to king, and get the measure of your uncle Benjen as well."

So we have this picture of a clever, curious, restless man, who has lived through many winters. I think his judgment is good: if he thinks it's possible Long Lake is not yet frozen, then it is indeed possible.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

15 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

This is why I suggested Lyanna earlier, we haven't seen any past visions from Mel, but she's supposed to have those as well, and I always wondered why we didn't see any past visions, and how Mel could possibly know the difference. Besides, Lyanna's the connection to Jon is stronger than the Alys one. I also have the idea that Mel's visions are usually Targ related, which would fit nicely with the theories about Mel being Bloodraven's daughter. Lyanna is also connected to Rhaegar, Jon and even Robert, who all have Targ blood.

...

I read this particular visin in relation to what it accomplishes in regards to the narrative within the context in which it is given: as an extra push contributing to drive Jon into the particular course of action that he took, ie. sending Mance to Arya's rescue.

The recurrent notion that prophesies/visions may be true in a very different way than what their interpreters perceive is, then, once again demonstrated by the "grey girl" not being Arya. Besides that, frankly, I don't see anything interesting in "revealing", a book or two later, that, "remember Mel's grey girl on dying horse vision? well, turns out that it was Lyanna a couple of decades earlier / Arya a good few months later / X character in a totally irrelevant context/timeline". Adding such a complication without payoff whatsoever is not something I would expect a professional writer to do.

-------

Regarding the timeline:

Spoiler

Btw, Mercy chapter takes place at least one week after ADWD epilogue (Kevan's death). According to the [generally well documented and good enough for an approximate events timing guide]  timeline, this is about a month before Jon's assassination. So the notion that Arya, in a time of less than a month, would have come clear with her situation with the FM, left Braavos, arrived in the east coast and crossed half the width of a continent snowstorms and all is, allow me to believe, beyond ridiculous.

 

[Ygrain]

Well... I'd say that Alys more or less fits, but I don't get why she should crumble and blow away because, IMHO, this doesn't bode well for her.  Grey as ash is also a peculiar thing to say, and while grey is a Stark colour, that comparison to ash doesn't sound quite right here. If Shireen was elsewhere, she would be the prime candidate for such a description, IMHO, and I could see her seeking protection with Jon

Spoiler

if Mel and Stannis get the same idea as their show counterparts. Jon has refused to give one baby to the flames, after all. Plus, Shireen not wanting to be "bride of fire" would also fit Mel's interpretation :-)

 

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

I'm not entirely sure if it isn't just Alys, but it's nice to speculate. 

I wonder if it couldn't also be Asha Greyjoy. Because Asha Greyjoy, sounds a lot like Grey Ashes. Asha also has spent a lot of time contemplating the possibility that Stannis would decide to burn her,  and she's definitely not the kind of girl to meekly wait until that happens. 

In that case the lake would still be Long Lake of course, and the lake wouldn't be just starting to freeze over. Although it does seem to be slightly warmer around the Wall than at WF, which is peculiar by itself. 

[Ygrain]

1 minute ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

I wonder if it couldn't also be Asha Greyjoy. Because Asha Greyjoy, sounds a lot like Grey Ashes. Asha also has spent a lot of time contemplating the possibility that Stannis would decide to burn her,  and she's definitely not the kind of girl to meekly wait until that happens. 

A good catch!

[ravenous reader]

5 minutes ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

I'm not entirely sure if it isn't just Alys, but it's nice to speculate. 

I wonder if it couldn't also be Asha Greyjoy. Because Asha Greyjoy, sounds a lot like Grey Ashes. Asha also has spent a lot of time contemplating the possibility that Stannis would decide to burn her,  and she's definitely not the kind of girl to meekly wait until that happens. 

In that case the lake would still be Long Lake of course, and the lake wouldn't be just starting to freeze over. Although it does seem to be slightly warmer around the Wall than at WF, which is peculiar by itself. 

And Asha is also fleeing an unwanted, organised marriage (one of her POVs is entitled 'The Wayward Bride'):

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - The Wayward Bride

"—where? You cannot return to the isles. Not unless you mean to submit to your lord husband."

Asha tried to picture herself abed with Erik Ironmaker, crushed beneath his bulk, suffering his embraces. Better him than the Red Oarsman or Left-Hand Lucas Codd. The Anvil-Breaker had once been a roaring giant, fearsomely strong, fiercely loyal, utterly without fear. It might not be so bad. He's like to die the first time he tries to do his duty as a husband. That would make her Erik's widow instead of Erik's wife, which could be better or a good deal worse, depending on his grandsons. And my nuncle. In the end, all the winds blow me back toward Euron. "I have hostages, on Harlaw," she reminded him. "And there is still Sea Dragon Point … if I cannot have my father's kingdom, why not make one of my own?" Sea Dragon Point had not always been as thinly peopled as it was now. Old ruins could still be found amongst its hills and bogs, the remains of ancient strongholds of the First Men. In the high places, there were weirwood circles left by the children of the forest.

"You are clinging to Sea Dragon Point the way a drowning man clings to a bit of wreckage. What does Sea Dragon have that anyone could ever want? There are no mines, no gold, no silver, not even tin or iron. The land is too wet for wheat or corn."

A Dance with Dragons - The Wayward Bride

Asha took Tris Botley by the ears and kissed him full upon the lips. He was red and breathless by the time she let him go. "What was that?" he said.

"A kiss, it's called. Drown me for a fool, Tris, I should have remembered—" She broke off suddenly. When Tris tried to speak, she shushed him, listening. "That's a warhorn. Hagen." Her first thought was of her husband. Could Erik Ironmaker have come all this way to claim his wayward wife?

At a stretch, one might even argue that Asha Greyjoy is Jon's 'sister', by association with Theon who as Ned's ward was Jon's 'brother.'

[Schwarze Sonne]

Asha is no girl though.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

A good catch!

Thanks, I was just contemplating whether there were any other girls that could be linked to the word 'grey', and when Asha came up I suddenly saw the link to ashes as well. 

4 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

And Asha is also fleeing an unwanted, organised marriage (one of her POVs is entitled 'The Wayward Bride'):

At a stretch, one might even argue that Asha Greyjoy is Jon's 'sister', by association with Theon who as Ned's ward was Jon's 'brother.'

Good find. Asha makes sense for practical reasons as well, since we now have two POVs with Stannis, and Davos will also arrive at some point I suppose. So there's a set up for a POV to leave, and Asha as a captive will get boring. Jon Snow is also her best option to run to,  and now that there are black brothers with Stannis, she will probably hear about the spearwives at the wall. 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

On 18/03/2017 at 9:57 PM, DutchArya said:

<snip>

Excellent catches. I'd only correct you on one point, that Mel's vision is of a girl on the western side of a lake. There are no reference points in the vision for Mel to establish direction; she assumes the girl's heading north, and works from that assumption. All we can deduce is the position of the lake relative to the girl, i.e. it's on her left, because Mel places it at her west, having assumed she's travelling north. Of course, this could as easily mean it's to her east and she's heading south, thus placing her on the western side of the lake...

...or Mel could be right. We can't say for sure.

But I do like the idea that it's Arya and the God's Eye, especially since, as you point out, she's already spent so much time in the Riverlands: it'd be kind of fitting for her to go back there.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

On 19/03/2017 at 9:23 AM, M_Tootles said:

Wanted to expand on why I think it's Shireen...

Interesting. So you think Shireen's gonna be married off and then flee the marriage? Or are you thinking that it's not a literal vision?

I suppose if Stannis loses then the Boltons might want to take Shireen in hand.

But I don't understand how the vision could be of Mel herself. Mel's fleeing south, but her dream-image is of a little girl? Surely Mel's symbolic dream-image should either be a fire lady or an old woman?

[Springwatch]

5 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Excellent catches. I'd only correct you on one point, that Mel's vision is of a girl on the western side of a lake. There are no reference points in the vision for Mel to establish direction; she assumes the girl's heading north, and works from that assumption. All we can deduce is the position of the lake relative to the girl, i.e. it's on her left, because Mel places it at her west, having assumed she's travelling north. Of course, this could as easily mean it's to her east and she's heading south, thus placing her on the western side of the lake...

...or Mel could be right. We can't say for sure.

But I do like the idea that it's Arya and the God's Eye, especially since, as you point out, she's already spent so much time in the Riverlands: it'd be kind of fitting for her to go back there.

Mel could be right. She gets underestimated a lot - it's way too common to hear, "Mel is incompetent", "Mel deludes herself", "Mel always gets it wrong". Well does she?

She says she has studied the art of fire prophecy for years beyond count, and no-one in her order can do it better.

Deluded? Well, from what we see directly in her point of view, she is happy to deceive others, but she doesn't deceive herself. She recognises what she doesn't know, but she doesn't tell her listeners because her aim isn't to give the whole truth - more that she wants to manipulate them.

In this case, she wants to get hold of Arya to gain influence over Jon - so I think she's giving Mance all the help she can. And she's a good witness here, not adding or interpreting anything, and letting Mance fill in the details: the lake and the direction of travel (she has to do this  - she is a stranger in the country, and no-one expects her to identify Long Lake, or Arya, or anything else).

The only question mark over Mel is Stannis, and this is so weird because as I said, she doesn't usually deceive herself. All I can think of is that early on, Rhllor spectacularly messed up a vision showing Stannis and hasn't bothered to correct it. Or that Stannis was identified by another method back at headquarters and Mel was given that as a certainty.

Anyway, my point is: Mel's competence is not a factor here - Mance knows everything she does.

[Greywater-Watch]

Assuming that things are as they appear (i.e. Melisandre misinterpreted her vision) makes this Episode a splendid one. It:

• surprises the reader
• makes Jon doubt Melisandre's competences
• reveals Melisandre's true character and weakness to the Reader (i.e. she is too eager to control Jon by impressing him, thus she gambles and sells her interpretation of her vision despite knowing herself that she could not be sure about the girl's identity
• opens up a nice side-story with Alys Karstark:
  • allowing Jon to marry a Wildling to someone from Westeros
  • putting him once again into the conflict of the Night Watch's vows not to interfere with the realm's politics

In my view no need to question this nice episode based on very fragile evidence. Apart from that this would mean to make a very big deal about overlapping timelines (Mercy chapter would have to be placed well before these events).