It's not Alys Karstark, either

[a black swan]

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Mel could be right. She gets underestimated a lot - it's way too common to hear, "Mel is incompetent", "Mel deludes herself", "Mel always gets it wrong". Well does she?

She says she has studied the art of fire prophecy for years beyond count, and no-one in her order can do it better.

Deluded? Well, from what we see directly in her point of view, she is happy to deceive others, but she doesn't deceive herself. She recognises what she doesn't know, but she doesn't tell her listeners because her aim isn't to give the whole truth - more that she wants to manipulate them.

In this case, she wants to get hold of Arya to gain influence over Jon - so I think she's giving Mance all the help she can. And she's a good witness here, not adding or interpreting anything, and letting Mance fill in the details: the lake and the direction of travel (she has to do this  - she is a stranger in the country, and no-one expects her to identify Long Lake, or Arya, or anything else).

The only question mark over Mel is Stannis, and this is so weird because as I said, she doesn't usually deceive herself. All I can think of is that early on, Rhllor spectacularly messed up a vision showing Stannis and hasn't bothered to correct it. Or that Stannis was identified by another method back at headquarters and Mel was given that as a certainty.

Anyway, my point is: Mel's competence is not a factor here - Mance knows everything she does.

She isn't deluded. Just deliberately misguided by her own bias which she urges Mance to be complicit in: They need to win over Jon. Mel then admits to herself privately that she has no clue where this girl is. So how can she be accurate in the "direction of travel"? 

Mance only suggests Long Lake based on the assumption he was told by Mel that the girl is Arya (so she is fleeing Winterfell) and coming to the Wall seeking Jon's protection (therefore heading North). None of this can be proven from what she actually saw in the flames. 

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, DutchArya said:

She isn't deluded. Just deliberately misguided by her own bias which she urges Mance to be complicit in: They need to win over Jon. Mel then admits to herself privately that she has no clue where this girl is. So how can she be accurate in the "direction of travel"? 

Mance only suggests Long Lake based on the assumption he was told by Mel that the girl is Arya (so she is fleeing Winterfell) and coming to the Wall seeking Jon's protection (therefore heading North). None of this can be proven from what she actually saw in the flames. 

Mel thinks that she could sense clearly that the girl was going to ask Jon for help.

[M_Tootles]

12 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Interesting. So you think Shireen's gonna be married off and then flee the marriage? Or are you thinking that it's not a literal vision?

I suppose if Stannis loses then the Boltons might want to take Shireen in hand.

But I don't understand how the vision could be of Mel herself. Mel's fleeing south, but her dream-image is of a little girl? Surely Mel's symbolic dream-image should either be a fire lady or an old woman?

Mel pretty much has a vision of herself as a little girl. This is another vision. Marriage in either case could certainly be figurative.

I really do like the Lyanna idea, though. Much more than Arya.

[Schwarze Sonne]

I think that the greatest mystery lies within the fact that Mel saw the girl fleeing from unwanted marriage. How did she know about why the girl was fleeing on horse back, I have no slightest clue. Did she see the bridegroom sing after her?

[Ygrain]

48 minutes ago, Schwarze Sonne said:

I think that the greatest mystery lies within the fact that Mel saw the girl fleeing from unwanted marriage. How did she know about why the girl was fleeing on horse back, I have no slightest clue. Did she see the bridegroom sing after her?

I think this part was merely Mel's deduction - there wouldn't be exactly an abundance of young females relying on getting help from Jon, and as the only girl somehow related to Jon and having one hell of a reason to run and seek help was poor fArya, Mel concluded that it must be her.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

On 20/03/2017 at 9:36 AM, Makk said:

Having Arya ride past a body of water isn't a particularly interesting thing to foreshadow. Yes we lack context but compared to other events that have received foreshadowing this lacks significant importance.

Well, since we don't know what exactly we're seeing, we don't know whether it's important or not.

And since, if it is Arya, it's so well-hidden, I don't think this really counts as foreshadowing at all.

On 20/03/2017 at 7:46 PM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

...this may have been a vision of the past, and the girl is neither Arya or Alys, but Lyanna, fleeing from her marriage to Robert.

This is my new favourite supposition, and, narratively speaking, it fits the best of all. Why wouldn't we, the reader, start getting hints towards the central mysteries of the story as we approach the third act?

Plus, it would be make sense within the chapter if we consider that Lyanna is Jon's mother, or at least, if the mystery surrounding Lyanna is entangled with the mystery of Jon's birth.

"I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R'hllor shows me only Snow."

On 21/03/2017 at 2:08 AM, Chris Mormont said:

If you recall, When Stannis arrives at the Crofters Village, which is south of Long Lake, his men ice fish on the frozen lake. even with Long Lake being much bigger  the fact that it is north of Winterfell and there has been extreme cold for a while, the lake would not have a thin coat of ice just forming on it, it would have thicker ice near the shores.

Thank you, I was wondering about that aspect: has the foul weather that freezes half the North reached Long Lake when Melisandre supposedly sees Alys?

On 22/03/2017 at 9:59 AM, M_Tootles said:

I don't watch all his stuff, as I think his reasoning per se is sometimes faulty, whereas he's great at picking up on details like this and my own very, very strong bias is that shit like this ISN'T a mistake and that little things matter, so I respectfully ask: what video is this in and/or in brief what's the consequence he sees? Cheers.

It was in his series on the Theon TWOW sample chapter. The implication he draws is that Mors is concealing that his source for Winterfell info that he can use to verify Arya's identity, is Osha, and that therefore the Umbers have or have had Osha and Rickon in their possession. Which, sure, maybe. It's been a very long time since the last Davos chapter after all, he could've made it back.

Myself, I'm open to the idea that GRRM makes mistakes, especially in the sample chapters, which presumably haven't been rigorously edited yet. But it's much more fun to assume he doesn't.

On 22/03/2017 at 9:59 AM, M_Tootles said:

As my earlier post points out and no one sees fit to address, she's not just "grey", she's "grey as ash". Not saying grey isn't important and the verbiage isn't overdetermined, but the fact that you get a stark banner on an "grey ash" standard seems a bit thick, especialy when the "red herring" can be "scratched" to get a Stark (per Roose).

I'm always a little hesitant about these word-based arguments. The idea that GRRM used adjective x in situation y three times previous, therefore the fourth time, when he uses it in situation z, means that actually it's situation y... That's an extraordinary level of granularity to the writing, if so. It just doesn't grab me. It's interesting and suggestive, sure, but not persuasive. Plus, as an approach it's more than a little bit open to false pattern recognition.

On 23/03/2017 at 3:13 AM, TheSeer27 said:

The first time I read Dance I didn't really think twice about Alys but on a re-read I found it really odd. I don't agree that she is actually Arya. But I do think she could be someone else other than Alys. The whole thing is very strange. She seemed ok with marrying the Thenn and actually almost seemed like she expected it. Could she be one of the spearwives Mance took with him to Winterfell? Could be part of Mance's "ploy". Also does Jon even have the authority to broker this marriage? He said it was his idea. Yes he is LORD Commander but the NW is supposed to stay out of affairs of the Realm, can't imagine making marriage alliances is part of being Lord Commander. Also the guy who she was running from (cant think of his name of the top of my head) acts really bizarre when hes been imprisoned after a while. Howling like a wolf and throwing his feces at guards? Da fuck? I don't know, whole thing is very strange.

Prisoners throw shit at guards all the time. It's not like they've got anything else they can throw.

No, Jon doesn't have the authority to broker the marriage, he's breaking his vows. Again.

I don't think Alys Karstark is someone else in disguise, though, I just think that she's not the one Mel sees in the vision.

And finally, Asha Greyjoy is another good suggestion.

[Springwatch]

On 24/03/2017 at 4:39 PM, DutchArya said:

She isn't deluded. Just deliberately misguided by her own bias which she urges Mance to be complicit in: They need to win over Jon. Mel then admits to herself privately that she has no clue where this girl is. So how can she be accurate in the "direction of travel"? 

Mance only suggests Long Lake based on the assumption he was told by Mel that the girl is Arya (so she is fleeing Winterfell) and coming to the Wall seeking Jon's protection (therefore heading North). None of this can be proven from what she actually saw in the flames. 

Mel doesn't assume anything about the lake or the route - she tells Mance what she saw. And she was not bluffing about the girl fleeing to Jon:

Quote

She was racing to him for protection, that much Melisandre had seen clearly.

And of course she says it's Arya. Assume it's Arya, organise a rescue and Jon Snow has a huge debt to pay. Assume anything else and there's no advantage to be gained.

The reward is large and the risk very small. Arya is the girl 'known' to be in a abusive marriage, who would dare to escape across leagues on horseback, who could expect Jon Snow to protect her (even though the Watch 'takes no part'), who wears the Stark colour grey - and, if the vision shows it: is young and skinny and looks a bit like Jon Snow.
Whoever would think there could be two girls meeting that description?

Excuse me for talking about Mel so much, but here's the payoff. This is from the 'bloody tide' vision:

Quote

... The towers in her fire had been different, but that was oft the way with visions. "Yes. Eastwatch, my lord."

(Yes, naughty Mel, bluffing again. But she's pretty safe as Eastwatch has the only towers by the sea that the Watch cares about.)

So, often, the subject of a vision doesn't appear literally, but is represented by something else of the same type. A tower can represent another tower. Or in this case, a girl can represent another girl. Alys can represent Arya.

[TheSeer27]

23 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Prisoners throw shit at guards all the time. It's not like they've got anything else they can throw.

I get that. But it was weird that he was howling like a wolf. The timing was also weird. Just so happens when Borroq came to Castle Black. Not sure if its anything or not, just found it curious.

[a black swan]

2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Mel doesn't assume anything about the lake or the route - she tells Mance what she saw. And she was not bluffing about the girl fleeing to Jon:

And of course she says it's Arya. Assume it's Arya, organise a rescue and Jon Snow has a huge debt to pay. Assume anything else and there's no advantage to be gained.

The reward is large and the risk very small. Arya is the girl 'known' to be in a abusive marriage, who would dare to escape across leagues on horseback, who could expect Jon Snow to protect her (even though the Watch 'takes no part'), who wears the Stark colour grey - and, if the vision shows it: is young and skinny and looks a bit like Jon Snow.
Whoever would think there could be two girls meeting that description?

Excuse me for talking about Mel so much, but here's the payoff. This is from the 'bloody tide' vision:

(Yes, naughty Mel, bluffing again. But she's pretty safe as Eastwatch has the only towers by the sea that the Watch cares about.)

So, often, the subject of a vision doesn't appear literally, but is represented by something else of the same type. A tower can represent another tower. Or in this case, a girl can represent another girl. Alys can represent Arya.

I love this topic. 

From what she saw, a glimpse of this girl only once... How can she know she is heading to Jon? It's not only Arya she assumes, but Mel projects circumstances on to this girl that would give Mel that advantage you mentioned. The unwanted marriage? Heading North? Racing for Jon's protection? Nothing in that vision could illustrate those points. Just Mel's built in bias and desire to manipulate Jon into trusting her. 

What I'm proposing is the girl being Arya who is travelling under different circumstances and in a completely different area to what Mel thinks. 

The area Mel described was accurate to her recollection. But her description is filtered through Mance who was already tainted by Mel's bias. His answers are limited to what she already told him about the girl heading North. 

You know Mel admits to not knowing when or where this grey girl is. She says this in her chapter.  

Arya hopes a red priest sees her in their flames. Ironically, one does. 

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

5 hours ago, Springwatch said:

So, often, the subject of a vision doesn't appear literally, but is represented by something else of the same type. A tower can represent another tower. Or in this case, a girl can represent another girl. Alys can represent Arya.

Then what's the point of the vision?

If the vision isn't literal, then it is also not falsifiable, and thus any vision can mean anything if you squint hard enough. Sure, Mel thinks "that is oft the way with visions", but she also thinks Stannis is Azor Ahai, and we can surely agree that she's not correct about that.

This is one of the fundamental problems with visions and prophecy, a problem GRRM is well aware of, since he's written so many stories about false visions and such. Including this one - glass candles have definitely been mentioned, even if we haven't yet definitively seen one being used to plant fake visions.

I should add, the idea that magic is inherently unknowable and has no rules that we can understand does also mean that non-literal visions of no particular provenance are possible. But with Mel's story, the key element of which seems to be that the visions are vague but her interpretation is not, I think it's safe to assume that she's going to get a few things wrong. And so far she's done pretty well, which means she's getting set up for a fall...

(I might also add that it's more than likely that Eastwatch will come under attack again at some point, thus making her vision appear true - but I think we'll see something else in the story that better matches the vision, probably unbeknownst to her. Best guesses are Oldtown, Pyke and Harrenhal.)

[The Fattest Leech]

Mel is definitely trying to trick Jon in to trusting her. She has already proposed that Jon make shadow babies with her, and she glamoured herself to look like Ygritte while she used spells to trick Ghost in to "liking" her... because everyone knows that the best way to get a dude to like you is to put a slice of bacon in your pocket to get his dog to like you first Mel saw Snow in her fires and is quite possibly coming to the realization that Jon is the special one, not Stannis... probably not AAR special, but more Last Hero-ish, or something more connected to the north. (if you believe they are different characters from the past).

And I think Mel actually gets a glimpse of Arya again, but Mel has no idea what to make of it  because while the visions are true, her interpretations are always wrong. Just as the "ghost" of Renly during Battle of Blackwater.

• ADWD/ Mel I: The red priestess closed her eyes and said a prayer, then opened them once more to face the hearthfire. One more time. She had to be certain. Many a priest and priestess before her had been brought down by false visions, by seeing what they wished to see instead of what the Lord of Light had sent. Stannis was marching south into peril, the king who carried the fate of the world upon his shoulders, Azor Ahai reborn. Surely R'hllor would vouchsafe her a glimpse of what awaited him. Show me Stannis, Lord, she prayed. (1) Show me your king, your instrument.

Visions (2) danced before her, gold and scarlet, flickering, forming and (3) melting and dissolving into one another, shapes strange and terrifying and (4) seductive. She saw the (5) eyeless faces again, staring out at her from (6) sockets weeping blood. Then the (7) towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. Shadows in the shape of skulls, skulls that turned to mist, bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing. Through curtains of (8) fire great winged shadows wheeled against a hard blue sky.

(9) The girl. I must find the girl again, the grey girl on the dying horse. Jon Snow would expect that of her, and soon. It would not be enough to say the girl was fleeing. He would want more, he would want the when and where, and she did not have that for him. She had seen the girl only once. A girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched she crumbled and blew away.

 

1. The first time Mel asks to see AA, she only asks to see AA and she sees this> " I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R'hllor shows me only Snow." This time Melisandre asks to see the instrument. That is a key difference because what Mel sees in the flames after is what she asks to see, but Mel does not know how to interpret her visions.
   1. I just want to add that an instrument is something that plays a song, and we knows songs and dances are common themes in this story. And an "aria" is a song solo with an accompanying instrument. That instrument is probably her Needle. Here.
2. Arya is a water dancer, and the term "dance" is synonymous with fight, or a fighter. That is Arya. That is how she has survived so far as a 9 to 11 year old girl.
3. This could be a glimpse at how Arya will move past her just wearing a leather face and being taught the art of glamouring, which is what the more advanced faceless men use.
4. Arya has an interest in the courtesans of Braavos. There is a chance in TWOW that she might possibly go to one of them. What's his face even offers to send Arya to the courtesans if she wants. Courtesans are trained in the art of seduction.
5. Leather masks such as the Ugly Girl, etc.
6. Think back to the process of applying the leather face masks. What's his face cuts Arya (blood sacrifice) and applies the face mask over hers where her blood softens it and the mask adheres to her body. Here.
7. This seems to be the Twin Towers of Frey. Arya definitely has some unfinished business with that family. I cannot wait for this to happen, either!
   1. But there was smoke coming from the tower, Arya saw,
   2. Arya gazed up at the Twins, their high tower windows glowing softly wherever a light was burning.
   3. she saw the two towers that marked him for a Frey.
8. Speaking of unfinished business, Dany has some business in Braavos so there is a real chance Arya will get her wish to see a dragon as Dany comes flying in to town. I am sure this will have a tremendous effect of the young girl.
9. Mel already found the girl again. It was Arya, but she just doesn't know better. You know nothing, Melisandre!

ADDING: In Arya III/AGOT, she gets her first taste of fire and Myr, and she then moves on to Thoros of Myr, and he is connected to Red Raloo and Melisandre through the flames/religion. Arya seems to be set up to have this final connection when she returns to Westeros:

• Catching cats was hard. Her hands were covered with half-healed scratches, and both knees were scabbed over where she had scraped them raw in tumbles. At first even the cook's huge fat kitchen cat had been able to elude her, but Syrio had kept her at it day and night. When she'd run to him with her hands bleeding, he had said, "So slow? Be quicker, girl. Your enemies will give you more than scratches." He had dabbed her wounds with Myrish fire, which burned so bad she had had to bite her lip to keep from screaming. Then he sent her out after more cats.

[The Fattest Leech]

48 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Then what's the point of the vision?

If the vision isn't literal, then it is also not falsifiable, and thus any vision can mean anything if you squint hard enough. Sure, Mel thinks "that is oft the way with visions", but she also thinks Stannis is Azor Ahai, and we can surely agree that she's not correct about that.

This is one of the fundamental problems with visions and prophecy, a problem GRRM is well aware of, since he's written so many stories about false visions and such.

I am not sure how many of George's old stories you may or may not have read, but if you want to get a reealllly good glimpse of Melisandre a crazy magic lady with red hair and how she

Spoiler

lives in a fire brazier and tricks a young lady who looks like a boy and has a boy's name, and the young lady also has a special sword that holds the memories of her lost family. Oh, and this young lady sometimes runs around naked and she wears leather masks, all the while this crazy woman tricks her by making her watch (unbeknownst to the girl) false visions on a huge screen, and then the young girl later is praised by her family for not practicing incest and actually bringing new blood in to the family ... read Bitterblooms. I won't spoil the ending, but let's just say we get a glimpse or two in ASOIAF.

48 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Including this one - glass candles have definitely been mentioned, even if we haven't yet definitively seen one being used to plant fake visions.

I should add, the idea that magic is inherently unknowable and has no rules that we can understand does also mean that non-literal visions of no particular provenance are possible. But with Mel's story, the key element of which seems to be that the visions are vague but her interpretation is not, I think it's safe to assume that she's going to get a few things wrong. And so far she's done pretty well, which means she's getting set up for a fall...

(I might also add that it's more than likely that Eastwatch will come under attack again at some point, thus making her vision appear true - but I think we'll see something else in the story that better matches the vision, probably unbeknownst to her. Best guesses are Oldtown, Pyke and Harrenhal.)

The glass candles also seem to take a "blood sacrifice" each time they cut a perspective viewer.

I think we will see Sam use the candle as a way to keep in touch with the north... for some reason. I mean, Sam was given a lot of specific details about the glass candle when he arrived as a total newbie at the Citadel. Marwyn just totally info dumped on him.

• "What feeds the flame?" asked Sam.
  "What feeds a dragon's fire?" Marwyn seated himself upon a stool. "All Valyrian sorcery was rooted in blood or fire. The sorcerers of the Freehold could see across mountains, seas, and deserts with one of these glass candles. They could enter a man's dreams and give him visions, and speak to one another half a world apart, seated before their candles. Do you think that might be useful, Slayer?"
  "We would have no more need of ravens."

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Yeah, I'm working my way thru the old stuff, I've read Bitterblooms. I really think Preston Jacobs is onto something with that whole thing. I wouldn't go so far as to say that ASOIAF is secretly post-apocalyptic sci-fi; but it is clear that, if ASOIAF is a straightforward epic fantasy tale, then it'd be the first time GRRM has written one in his life.

Now, you may say there's a first time for everything... but you can also say that you can't teach an old dog new tricks. And GRRM is old. (And fat and ugly.)

Sam getting magical seems to fit: he mentions wanting to be a wizard when we first meet him, and if the general thrust of the story is a move from quasi-historical fiction to high fantasy, with the magic ramping up gradually book-by-book, it makes sense that some of our characters, previously not involved in magic, would enter that side of the story. (Which we're already seeing all over the place, of course.)

As for the idea that Mel saw a complicated vision that adds up to Arya, well, I think that just goes to show what I was saying about non-literal visions: they can represent anything if you squint hard enough. And you're squinting pretty hard there, Leech.

For myself, I'm starting to lean towards maybe thinking about thinking that there are two types of visions: natural ones, which are literal and of unknown provenance; and man-made ones, which are implanted in order to manipulate the seer, and are therefore vague. I think Mel is seeing natural visions in this chapter, but misinterpreting them.

With the eyeless heads, for instance, she's bang on the money. And that makes sense to me: she says that direct threats to one's life are the first things a seer learns to see, and so we should expect seers to most often be seeing things that could, in some way, threaten them: the Weeper is one such threat. Not a personal threat to Mel's life, of course, but if he attacks in force or makes it round the Wall, possibly freeing the captured wildlings and/or turning the rest, Mel could end up an eyeless head herself.

I guess that natural visions work something like this: seers are most likely to see threats to their own life, and the less a thing threatens them, the less likely they are to see it. Hence, the eyeless heads are perfectly clear, but the grey girl on the horse is not. On top of that, it seems like there are certain events that are so momentous that their psychic resonance is enormous enough to be felt by seers who have no connection to the event. Hence, the Ghost of High Heart gets hints of the Red Wedding and the assassination of two kings. So when Mel sees towers by the sea with the black and bloody tide, I assume that it's a real vision: it sounds like an even greater atrocity than the Red Wedding, and thus would be echoing out across the psychic-space loud and clear. I wonder, if we meet the Ghost of High Heart again, will she have a similar vision? Or will Bran or Jojen?

While I'm at it, let me throw out some suspected unnatural visions...

Spoiler

...the ones Aeron has in The Forsaken. There are some similarities between how Aeron envisions Euron and how Euron is dressed later in the chapter; I think Euron fed him a bunch of psychedelics and stood in front of him saying freaky shit. The visions seem designed to break Aeron's will and make Euron look like a god.

My suspicion is Euron learned the shade of the evening routine from the warlocks he caught, and that the whole thing is a trick...

...which of course also makes me suspicious of the visions Dany has in the House of the Undying. Is it really a magical M.C. Escher building, bigger on the inside with upside down staircases and shit? Or was she just in a single room the whole time, tripping her nuts off?

Not to mention the visions Bran sees after eating the Jojen weirwood paste. Bran's situation is complicated by the fact that he's attached to the weirwood net at that point, and he really does have mind powers, and his visions do seem to be real - so maybe weirwood paste is legit, and amplifies one's psychic powers, while shade of the evening doesn't? Or maybe Bran is being shown real things to build up his trust in his evil overlords. Or maybe both work the same, and can be used either to show true visions or to induce false ones. Who knows?

[The Fattest Leech]

14 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Yeah, I'm working my way thru the old stuff, I've read Bitterblooms. I really think Preston Jacobs is onto something with that whole thing. I wouldn't go so far as to say that ASOIAF is secretly post-apocalyptic sci-fi; but it is clear that, if ASOIAF is a straightforward epic fantasy tale, then it'd be the first time GRRM has written one in his life.

PJ is fairly good with his book critiques. He does not hit all of the points, but I guess that is what the comments are supposed to be for, but the comments section just gets trolled instead. 

GRRM did write a fantasy-fantasy before 1,000 world. I forget the name of it, but he does have his left foot in that pile while his right is in the sci-fi pile. 

I agree that I do not think ASOIAF is secretly post apocalyptic sci-fi. I see common themes, but not that structure at all. 

Quote

Now, you may say there's a first time for everything... but you can also say that you can't teach an old dog new tricks. And GRRM is old. (And fat and ugly.)

He certainly IS an old dog! His tricks are easier to spot the more you get in to his older stuff. 

To anyone else, read Bitterblooms. It is a short, quick read. Maybe 2 hours. 

 

Quote

As for the idea that Mel saw a complicated vision that adds up to Arya, well, I think that just goes to show what I was saying about non-literal visions: they can represent anything if you squint hard enough. And you're squinting pretty hard there, Leech.

I'm drunk, not high  (joking... or am I? ) 

To me it seems fairly simple, Mel gets what she asks for, she just F's it up. Mel asks to see the instrument and she gets it.  Then again, I totally believe in Jojen paste! 

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

To anyone else, read Bitterblooms.

Or don't. I thought it was pretty meh. An interesting setting but a nothing story.

And Seven Times Never Kill Man!, on the other hand... now that was fantastic.

Also In the House of the Worm was pretty good

I haven't got all that far thru the Thousand Worlds stuff yet though

[The Fattest Leech]

42 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Or don't. I thought it was pretty meh. An interesting setting but a nothing story.

Ok. Meet me in the alley, we have to knife fight about this one 

it seems to really set a base for certain character themes we see in Mel and Arya in ASOIAF. 

Quote

And Seven Times Never Kill Man!, on the other hand... now that was fantastic.

That one was super good. When I put that one for relisten, I am sucked in right away. 

Quote

Also In the House of the Worm was pretty good

So bizarre. I love it. This is the only GRRM story I have been able to get my Gibbs to read and he really liked it as well. But then again, he is really in to traditional style sci-fi. 

Quote

I haven't got all that far thru the Thousand Worlds stuff yet though

Keep going. Some are not as great as others and even I have trudged my way through some, or even stopped at some point where they sit in the shelf to be continued "later". 

[Springwatch]

16 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Then what's the point of the vision?

If the vision isn't literal, then it is also not falsifiable, and thus any vision can mean anything if you squint hard enough.

 

Well, exactly. That statement probably appears in the red priest text book. Prophecy is a heck of a lot more of an art than a science.

16 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Sure, Mel thinks "that is oft the way with visions", but she also thinks Stannis is Azor Ahai, and we can surely agree that she's notcorrect about that.

This touches on the key point about Mel: everything she does is interpreted in the light of this huge error of identification. Why is she so certain on this one point, when she admits uncertainty on everything else? - not just 'oft the way with visions' but also 'it might not come to pass' (paraphrased). Honestly, I think the identification of Stannis was not one of Mel's visions, but came from another source entirely - a higher authority that she has to trust more than her own skill and judgement. She must know by now that Stannis doesn't have a magical bone in his body.

16 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

This is one of the fundamental problems with visions and prophecy, a problem GRRM is well aware of, since he's written so many stories about false visions and such. Including this one - glass candles have definitely been mentioned, even if we haven't yet definitively seen one being used to plant fake visions.

I've only just found out that Mel is afraid of dreaming - given the choice she stays up all night with the lights on.

16 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I should add, the idea that magic is inherently unknowable and has no rules that we can understand does also mean that non-literal visions of no particular provenance are possible. But with Mel's story, the key element of which seems to be that the visions are vague but her interpretation is not, I think it's safe to assume that she's going to get a few things wrong. And so far she's done pretty well, which means she's getting set up for a fall...

Agreed. I'm not saying this is incompetence though. Mel has to do her own interpretations - if she lets her clients do this, she becomes a webcam, not the Grand Vizier she wants to be.

16 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

(I might also add that it's more than likely that Eastwatch will come under attack again at some point, thus making her vision appear true - but I think we'll see something else in the story that better matches the vision, probably unbeknownst to her. Best guesses are Oldtown, Pyke and Harrenhal.)

I bet you're right.

[Springwatch]

19 hours ago, TheSeer27 said:

I get that. But it was weird that he was howling like a wolf. The timing was also weird. Just so happens when Borroq came to Castle Black. Not sure if its anything or not, just found it curious.

Karstarks have Stark blood, I guess - that makes them wolves. It might be a subtle way of communicating that Alys is part of the Stark family.

[Cleaver the Confused]

A few thoughts on Mel and her seeming incompetence when it comes to interpreting those visions...

Whatever we might think about Mel's methods, her POV seems to confirm that she does genuinely believe in R'hllor and that she is doing his work. Let's assume for a moment that R'hllor is real at least in some sense (whether as a personified deity or just a metaphor for the 'fire' aspect of reality, or whatever), and is directing Mel in pursuit of some purpose or end point. Now we all know that Stannis isn't AA and Mel 'got it wrong', but if we also assume that AA is in fact Jon Snow, then surely R'hllor's ultimate purpose would involve ensuring Jon fulfills whatever destiny the Lord of Light has in store for him. If Mel hadn't been convinced that Stannis was AA, then Stannis would never have been convinced of his own duty to fight the Great Other, would never have been sent his vision of the battle in the ice, and would never have ridden north to save Jon and the NW from certain doom at the hands of an enormous army of wildlings. Not to mention whatever Stannis may go on to do in TWOW...

So yes Mel is certainly deluded, and doesn't seem to realise the mistakes she is making in her interpretations of prophecy that seem so obvious to the reader. But perhaps R'hllor intended to delude her all along, so that she would guide Stannis to play his part in the real Azor Ahai's destiny. She is merely a willing instrument in the song of ice and fire, whether or not she understands quite how she is being played!

As to the grey girl vision, I'm undecided. I certainly think the possibility is there that it isn't Alys Karstark, or that it refers to multiple girls or circumstances, and some of the theories posted here are intriguing. But ultimately I think the vision was sent to Mel for the same reason as all the others - to fulfill R'hllor's purpose, whatever that might be. Perhaps it was simply to get Mance to Winterfell to do... whatever it is he's doing there, which is the most obvious result of Mel acting on the vision, in which case who the girl is may not be so important. Or perhaps the vision's purpose will only become apparent when we discover the truth of who and where the girl was.

Good reading though, it's fun to speculate!

[Cleaver the Confused]

P.S. @Springwatch love the name - I take it you are a Chris Packham fan?