It's not Alys Karstark, either

[Ckram]

On 17/03/2017 at 11:47 PM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

But if it ain't Arya, why should we assume any of the other details are correct? Is it really Long Lake? Is it really the North? Is she really heading north?

I'm cool with that girl being Alys Karstark.

However, allow me put another log on the fire: What if this grey girl is not Arya, Alys or Lyanna, but some other girl actually coming from beyond-the-wall to Castle Black? I mean a wildling girl riding south, to Castle Black.

And the those deep blue still endless waters "with a thin coat of ice just forming on it" are some lake north of the wall (although the really large lakes beyond-the-wall shown in the map are too far away). Or worse: she's fleeing Hardhome tragedy and that lake is, actually, the Shivering Sea freezed by the Others supernatural cold.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

19 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Ok. Meet me in the alley, we have to knife fight about this one 

it seems to really set a base for certain character themes we see in Mel and Arya in ASOIAF.

Engarde!

Yeah, I think there's some interesting ideas in there - and they've been redone much better in ASOIAF. But it just didn't grab me.

[Springwatch]

On 26/03/2017 at 6:12 AM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

... For myself, I'm starting to lean towards maybe thinking about thinking that there are two types of visions: natural ones, which are literal and of unknown provenance; and man-made ones, which are implanted in order to manipulate the seer, and are therefore vague. I think Mel is seeing natural visions in this chapter, but misinterpreting them....

I've wondered for a long while why the gods would send their chosen followers such confusing messages. Multiple sources for the messages would go a way to explaining it. Maybe multiple streams of information as well - @DutchArya and @Schwarze Sonne pointed out that 'fleeing from a marriage' is not easy to frame as a picture. It could be done, but Mel doesn't mention the necessary detail - so, maybe that idea arrived separately, like a sort of subliminal caption to the vision. A good seer would get the subliminal message and use it to interpret the vision correctly, but a bad one would just see the image.

Quote

... On top of that, it seems like there are certain events that are so momentous that their psychic resonance is enormous enough to be felt by seers who have no connection to the event. Hence, the Ghost of High Heart gets hints of the Red Wedding and the assassination of two kings. So when Mel sees towers by the sea with the black and bloody tide, I assume that it's a real vision: it sounds like an even greater atrocity than the Red Wedding, and thus would be echoing out across the psychic-space loud and clear. I wonder, if we meet the Ghost of High Heart again, will she have a similar vision? Or will Bran or Jojen?

...

This does sound very possible. The Undying felt the Red Wedding as well - or at least Dany did, even though the story was not that relevant to her. Probably the Ghost of High Heart gets visions from the trees, and so do the Undying, in a way - so there might be some crossover there.  It would be really interesting to see if the Ghost and Bran share the same psychic-space as Melisandre - the same truths arriving through different channels.

23 hours ago, Cleaver the Confused said:

... So yes Mel is certainly deluded, and doesn't seem to realise the mistakes she is making in her interpretations of prophecy that seem so obvious to the reader. But perhaps R'hllor intended to delude her all along, so that she would guide Stannis to play his part in the real Azor Ahai's destiny. She is merely a willing instrument in the song of ice and fire, whether or not she understands quite how she is being played! ...

I've got to admit this theory works, though I've always assumed the opposite - that the gods are, if not actually senile, not really sane either - sort of a badly integrated hive mind of powerful spirits.

Definitely no middle ground though, either R'hllor is incredibly competent, or not at all.

23 hours ago, Cleaver the Confused said:

P.S. @Springwatch love the name - I take it you are a Chris Packham fan? 

Thanks! Well spotted. I should have gone for Winterwatch really - even Autumnwatch would be a better fit for the books so far. But it kind of suits me - I always want to be jumping to the end.