Jon was born a bastard and remains a bastard.

[JNR]

21 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

No, the evidence points to the three headed dragon Rhaegar speaks of in Dany's vision to be a reference to Aegon and his sisters, not to some unnamed prophecy or tradition of ancient Valyria we have no reason to believe existed.

Well, it's true the passage you cited from AGOT seems a pretty strong case for the sigil.

However, re Rhaegar's interpretation of the phrase "three heads has the dragon," I think Lord Varys is right, and there is objective reason to believe an ancient prophecy could be involved. 

It comes from Aemon:

Quote

He asked Sam to read for him from a book by Septon Barth, whose writings had been burned during the reign of Baelor the Blessed. Once he woke up weeping. "The dragon must have three heads," he wailed, "but I am too old and frail to be one of them. I should be with her, showing her the way, but my body has betrayed me."

This seems clearly to suggest that Aemon interprets the phrase as meaning advisors to the PtwP, not children of Rhaegar Targaryen (one of which he, Aemon, could obviously never be).

And the connection between dragons, the PtwP, and prophecy is another thing Aemon has explicitly brought up:

Quote

What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke.

Note the double reference to Barth in these two passages.  Probably not a coincidence.

Of course, there's no way to know Aemon and Rhaegar saw this matter the same way... but since we know they communicated about the PtwP, it seems plausible to me.

[Shmedricko]

10 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Someone, I forget who, pointed out many moons ago that Ser Gerold practically repeats line 5, from AGoT, in the following book, ACoK. But that's not all. He actually mentions a specific vow while using nearly identical language. Jaime relays this quote to Catelyn during their conversation in the RR dungeons.

“After, Gerold Hightower himself took me aside and said to me, ‘You swore a vow to guard the king, not to judge him.’ That was the White Bull, loyal to the end and a better man than me, all agree.” - ACoK, Catelyn VII

Can we be certain that this excerpt from ACoK actually echoes and explains the line from AGoT? No, not for certain. But it's at least a tantalizing possibility, I'd say. We don't exactly have an abundance of quotes from this deceased character for one, and the linguistic similarities can't help but call attention to each other. Then there's the fact that the later quote is specific precisely where the original is vague. More to the point, the second quote gives us an answer to the exact question left by the first— What vow? To guard the king.

Is it simply a coincidence that this same character uses almost identical wording—"We/you swore/swear a vow"—to describe a vow specific to KG in successive installments of the series? Possible, sure. But how likely? If you're asking me, I personally rate the possibility that this is merely a coincidence as very unlikely. I could be wrong, but to me it looks an awful lot like GRRM left the audience with a question in book one—What vow?—which he answered in book two— To guard the king.

In fact, there is only one other instance in the books where we are given a direct quote from Hightower, and once again, he references the vow to protect the king:

Quote

He saw them too. They were armored all in snow, it seemed to him, and ribbons of mist swirled back from their shoulders. The visors of their helms were closed, but Jaime Lannister did not need to look upon their faces to know them.

Five had been his brothers. Oswell Whent and Jon Darry. Lewyn Martell, a prince of Dorne. The White Bull, Gerold Hightower. Ser Arthur Dayne, Sword of the Morning. And beside them, crowned in mist and grief with his long hair streaming behind him, rode Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone and rightful heir to the Iron Throne.

"You don't frighten me," he called, turning as they split to either side of him. He did not know which way to face. "I will fight you one by one or all together. But who is there for the wench to duel? She gets cross when you leave her out."

"I swore an oath to keep him safe," she said to Rhaegar's shade. "I swore a holy oath."

"We all swore oaths," said Ser Arthur Dayne, so sadly.

The shades dismounted from their ghostly horses. When they drew their longswords, it made not a sound. "He was going to burn the city," Jaime said. "To leave Robert only ashes."

"He was your king," said Darry.

"You swore to keep him safe," said Whent.

"And the children, them as well," said Prince Lewyn.

Prince Rhaegar burned with a cold light, now white, now red, now dark. "I left my wife and children in your hands."

"I never thought he'd hurt them." Jaime's sword was burning less brightly now. "I was with the king . . ."

"Killing the king," said Ser Arthur.

"Cutting his throat," said Prince Lewyn.

"The king you had sworn to die for," said the White Bull. (Jaime VI, ASOS)

Other note-worthy things in this passage:

• The Kingsguard are "armored all in snow"
• Rhaegar is identified as the "rightful heir to the Iron Throne"
• Whent also references the vow to protect the king
• Arthur admonishes Jaime for killing Aerys, the king

[Lord Varys]

@SFDanny

Let's go the sources I'm thinking about that in this whole things. Those are the following:

Quote

“I have come for the gift of truth,” Dany said. “In the long hall, the things I saw . . . were they true visions, or lies? Past things, or things to come? What did they mean?”
. . . the shape of shadows . . . morrows not yet made . . . drink from the cup of ice . . . drink from the cup of fire . . .
. . . mother of dragons . . . child of three . . .
“Three?” She did not understand.
. . . three heads has the dragon . . . the ghost chorus yammered inside her skull with never a lip moving, never a breath stirring the still blue air.

ACoK

That establishes that the Undying of Qarth also know about the three dragon heads, making it exceedingly unlikely they have, on the basic prophecy level anything to do with the Targaryen banner or Aegon and his sisters.

That comes only up here:

Quote

“The dragon has three heads,” she sighed. “Do you know what that means, Jorah?”
“Your Grace? The sigil of House Targaryen is a three-headed dragon, red on black.”
“I know that. But there are no three-headed dragons.”
“The three heads were Aegon and his sisters.”

Historically correct. But a trivial information.

Quote

“Visenya and Rhaenys,” she recalled. “I am descended from Aegon and Rhaenys through their son Aenys and their grandson Jaehaerys.”
“Blue lips speak only lies, isn’t that what Xaro told you? Why do you care what the warlocks whispered? All they wanted was to suck the life from you, you know that now.”
“Perhaps,” she said reluctantly. “Yet the things I saw . . .”
“A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood . . . what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer’s dragon, you said. What is a mummer’s dragon, pray?”
“A cloth dragon on poles,” Dany explained. “Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight.”
Ser Jorah frowned.

I had actually forgotten that. Aegon clearly is in trouble.

Quote

Dany could not let it go. “His is the song of ice and fire, my brother said. I’m certain it was my brother. Not Viserys, Rhaegar. He had a harp with silver strings.”
Ser Jorah’s frown deepened until his eyebrows came together. “Prince Rhaegar played such a harp,” he conceded. “You saw him?”
She nodded. “There was a woman in a bed with a babe at her breast. My brother said the babe was the prince that was promised and told her to name him Aegon.”
“Prince Aegon was Rhaegar’s heir by Elia of Dorne,” Ser Jorah said. “But if he was this prince that was promised, the promise was broken along with his skull when the Lannisters dashed his head against a wall.”
“I remember,” Dany said sadly. “They murdered Rhaegar’s daughter as well, the little princess. Rhaenys, she was named, like Aegon’s sister. There was no Visenya, but he said the dragon has three heads. What is the song of ice and fire?”

ACoK

Here we also have the immediate textual connection of a discussion of Aegon following the discussion of the mummer's dragon. That is very telling, actually. Although that has little to do with the topic at hand.

Quote

On Braavos, it had seemed possible that Aemon might recover. Xhondo’s talk of dragons had almost seemed to restore the old man to himself. That night he ate every bite Sam put before him. “No one ever looked for a girl,” he said. “It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it.” Just talking of her seemed to make him stronger. “I must go to her. I must. Would that I was even ten years younger.”

That makes it clear the prophecy was already known to the Targaryens for at least a thousand years.

Quote

He spoke of dreams and never named the dreamer, of a glass candle that could not be lit and eggs that would not hatch. He said the sphinx was the riddle, not the riddler, whatever that meant. He asked Sam to read for him from a book by Septon Barth, whose writings had been burned during the reign of Baelor the Blessed. Once he woke up weeping. “The dragon must have three heads,” he wailed, “but I am too old and frail to be one of them. I should be with her, showing her the way, but my body has betrayed me.”

Aemon also knows that the (prophesied) dragon must have three heads, and he doesn't indicate or assume that those dragon heads have to be siblings. It can be any Targaryen. Why then do you think Rhaegar must have thought he should recreate Aegon and his sister-wives?

Quote

He was not a man to be refused. Sam hesitated a moment, then told his tale again as Marywn, Alleras, and the other novice listened. “Maester Aemon believed that Daenerys Targaryen was the fulfillment of a prophecy . . . her, not Stannis, nor Prince Rhaegar, nor the princeling whose head was dashed against the wall.”
“Born amidst salt and smoke, beneath a bleeding star. I know the prophecy.” Marwyn turned his head and spat a gob of red phlegm onto the floor. “Not that I would trust it. Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is . . . and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time.”

Marwyn knows the prophecy, too.

Now, the idea you have that Aegon V cared much (or at all) for the promised prince prophecy is not well supported by the text, actually. Aegon V collected dragonlore, but he wasn't supportive of the eccentricities of his son and heir Jaehaerys to marry his grandchildren to each other. He stayed out of that entire affair. Summerhall was King Aegon V's attempt to hatch dragon eggs. He thought he could bring the dragons back but there is no indication that he also believed he was the promised prince. If he had believed that, he would never have allowed Jaehaerys to marry Aerys to Rhaella because there would have been no need for such a stupid move.

I'm pretty sure Aegon V knew the same prophecy Aemon, Jaehaerys, Aerys and Rhaegar knew but I think Aegon V cared less about that and more about his own dragonlore researches. I think the original High Valyrian promised prince prophecy was not rediscovered by Aegon V but by Aerys I who, according to Egg, had found a prophecy foretelling the return of the dragons:

Quote

Egg lowered his voice. “Someday the dragons will return. My brother Daeron’s dreamed of it, and King Aerys read it in a prophecy. Maybe it will be my egg that hatches. That would be splendid.”

 

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

No, the evidence points to the three headed dragon Rhaegar speaks of in Dany's vision to be a reference to Aegon and his sisters, not to some unnamed prophecy or tradition of ancient Valyria we have no reason to believe existed.

But Rhaegar is clearly motivated by prophecy. The Song of Ice and Fire and the promised prince a things he clearly learned from reading some prophecy. And nothing indicates that his version of the prophecy - wherever it is now - did not mention those three heads.

Jorah makes the connection between the three heads and Aegon and his sisters but nothing indicates that Rhaegar cared about trivialities as that.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

The fact Melisandre quotes a prophecy she says is 5,000 years old, but leaves out any reference to a three-headed dragon should be a clue that the three-headed dragon is perhaps something much newer than that. Perhaps only three hundred years old when we hear of it, as the evidence suggests. Making stuff up isn't a sound strategy for unraveling this riddle.

But nothing indicates that Melisandre actually read the same prophecy (version) than Rhaegar. The ancient books of Asshai are clearly not the same texts Rhaegar or any Targaryens read. Melisandre's version might know stuff about waking dragons from stone, the bleeding star, smoke and salt, but not the three dragon heads.

Or if she does she might simply not have mentioned it because it doesn't fit her narrative (yet). After all, Stannis doesn't have any siblings left nor is he close to many people. Keep in mind that she is also faking a Lightbringer sword. She does not play fair and things she can force destiny's hand by making the prophecy come tricks true with cheap tricks.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

To be clear, my guess is that the Targaryen obsession with the prince who was promised comes from King Aegon V Targaryen's time and the source is a combination of the discovery of ancient  prophecies they interpret to about their family, and new prophetic visions revealed to them by the woods witch who comes to court with Jenny of Oldstones - aka the Ghost of High Heart. Not some ancient prophecy known to the Conquer's generation and the source of their adoption of the symbol of the three headed dragon. The former guess has evidence to support it. The latter does not.

We don't have any reason that the Ghost prophesied more than she did. And that was about Aerys and Rhaella's line bringing forth the promised prince, nothing about three dragon heads. Also keep in mind that Rhaegar believed in those three dragon heads before he went on his journey after Aegon's birth. He may have met the Ghost during that journey but not before.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

These are not much in the way of hints about the three-headed dragon and its origins. The first suggests a tie to the prince who was promised prophecy, but not anything about the three-headed dragon. The last two are evidence of nothing.

Again, I think the three dragon heads were part of the prophecy the Targaryens read, not some later update.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

And the  5,000 year old prophecies of Asshai don't originate in the religion of R'hllor. Yet Melisandre quotes them. And we know there are other sources for similar prophecies, so the fact Melisandre speaks of a prince who was promised does not suggest that she and Rhaegar have all the same sources, which is something I've been saying so on that much we agree, but the use of the same phrase does suggest a intersection of sources and possible common origins.

Actually, we have no idea where the religion of the red priests originated. Could very well have been Asshai. We don't know. It is clear that this Azor Ahai folklore ended up being absorbed by many eastern traditions for this or that reason. But that doesn't mean much of this stuff is very accurate. The Targaryens seem to have had better information than, say, both Melisandre and Benerro.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

The answers given to Deanery's questions in the House of the Undying suggests a second source than Rhaegar's , although not necessarily from an ancient prophecy, to the need for three heads of the dragon. It only helps to validate that Rhaegar was not wrong in the need for three individuals , only in his view on who those individuals need be.

The Undying have nothing to do with Rhaegar, though. They talk specifically to Daenerys, directly to her, and make no reference to Rhaegar, some ancient Targaryens, or anybody else.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Your argument, LV, is that it is only a coincidence that Rhaegar name his son both Aegon and identifies him as the prince who was promised, and then speaks of the need for another child because of the dragon needs three heads? I think you are just dismissing clues you don't like, my friend.

No. Do you think Rhaegar would not also have named his son 'Aegon' if he had retained the belief that he, Rhaegar, was the promised prince? Surely not. Aegon is a name for a king, as Rhaegar aptly says to Elia. It is not the name of the promised prince. It happens to be both but it was not, according to his opinion, specifically chosen for the promised prince but for a future king. And as Rhaegar's eldest son and heir Rhaegar had every reason to believe that Aegon would sit the Iron Throne after him.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I've never suggested Rhaegar tied any of this to the actual physical banner unfurled by the Targaryens  upon their invasion. I have suggested the symbol Rhaegar used is a reference to Aegon, Visenya, and Rhaenys and the founding power and glory of his House.

Why should he do that? The founding power and glory of the Targaryens in Westeros has essentially nothing to do with the promised prince prophecy. That is something completely different, a prophecy about some hero fighting some important war. There is no reason why Rhaegar should have thought 'Hey, my Aegon is fulfilling some ancient prophecy. Aegon the Conqueror had two sister-wives. So let's ensure that my Aegon also has two sister-wives.' There is simply no causal link there to assume he ever thought something along those lines.

[SFDanny]

13 hours ago, JNR said:

Well, it's true the passage you cited from AGOT seems a pretty strong case for the sigil.

However, re Rhaegar's interpretation of the phrase "three heads has the dragon," I think Lord Varys is right, and there is objective reason to believe an ancient prophecy could be involved. 

It comes from Aemon:

This seems clearly to suggest that Aemon interprets the phrase as meaning advisors to the PtwP, not children of Rhaegar Targaryen (one of which he, Aemon, could obviously never be).

And the connection between dragons, the PtwP, and prophecy is another thing Aemon has explicitly brought up:

Note the double reference to Barth in these two passages.  Probably not a coincidence.

Of course, there's no way to know Aemon and Rhaegar saw this matter the same way... but since we know they communicated about the PtwP, it seems plausible to me.

Of course, Maester Aemon, has a different view than of what Rhaegar thought some seventeen years before his conversation with Sam. We know Rhaegar changed his mind on the prophecy concerning who was the prince who was promised, and we know that Maester Aemon thinks, at least, that Rhaegar and his children are dead. When confronted with the evidence of Rhaegar being wrong, not only because of the deaths of all these other possible Targaryen candidates to play the role in the prophecy, but also the birth of dragons with Daenerys, Aemon sees all kinds of mistakes. At the time, Aemon thinks he is the only other Targaryen in existence after Dany. What Aemon thought seventeen years before is a mystery, but he clearly thinks Rhaegar was wrong now, because he tells us Rhaegar thought Aegon, who Aemon believes dead, to have been the promised prince.

@Lord Varys , I will try to respond later tonight, I'm traveling out of town today and won't be able to give your post the attention it deserves until then. Enjoy the day, my friend.

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Of course, Maester Aemon, has a different view than of what Rhaegar thought some seventeen years before his conversation with Sam.

That is not in doubt but both Aemon and Rhaegar himself believed that Rhaegar was the promised prince in his childhood and youth, so their interpretations of the prophecy seem to have been more or less the same. That is no guarantee, of course, but heavily implied.

Yandel's accounts on Aerys and Rhaella desperately trying to have children - and Aerys actually refusing to arrange a match for Rhaegar until after he was a man grown - both indicate that they were also on board with the prophecy, trying to create the other dragon heads and/or produce a living sister Rhaegar could marry.

7 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

We know Rhaegar changed his mind on the prophecy concerning who was the prince who was promised, and we know that Maester Aemon thinks, at least, that Rhaegar and his children are dead. When confronted with the evidence of Rhaegar being wrong, not only because of the deaths of all these other possible Targaryen candidates to play the role in the prophecy, but also the birth of dragons with Daenerys, Aemon sees all kinds of mistakes. At the time, Aemon thinks he is the only other Targaryen in existence after Dany. What Aemon thought seventeen years before is a mystery, but he clearly thinks Rhaegar was wrong now, because he tells us Rhaegar thought Aegon, who Aemon believes dead, to have been the promised prince.

Aemon would have thought Rhaegar was wrong for a long time. After all, he and Aegon are dead for a long time (at least as far as he knows). The dragons are the game changer here, of course, they prove that the prophecy has come true finally, and Aemon would not be talking about the three dragon heads if that was not also part of the prophecy.

And if this is the case it has essentially nothing to do with Aegon and his sisters or the Targaryen banner. It is connected to the prophecy, a prophecy that might very well have shaped the Targaryen banner back in the days of Aegon and his sisters.

The Targaryens went through some troubled times, both during Maegor's cruel reign as well as later during the Dance. Knowledge on dragonlore and prophecies might have been misplaced or lost when Jaehaerys I and Alysanne lost their father Aenys I as early as they did, and the same should be true for Aegon III losing both Daemon and Rhaenyra as early as he did.

Barth seems to have recovered and investigated a lot of stuff during the reign of Jaehaerys I but his book(s) were burned during the reign of Baelor the Blessed. Today only very few people retain a complete copy of his Unnatural History. Sam found one at the Wall and hopefully he is going to read some of that in ADwD. I'm really looking forward to those Citadel chapters.

7 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

@Lord Varys , I will try to respond later tonight, I'm traveling out of town today and won't be able to give your post the attention it deserves until then. Enjoy the day, my friend.

Have fun!

[Ygrain]

19 hours ago, Hangover of the Morning said:

However, I believe that there's a discrepancy between what Rhaegar (and his men) perceived as "right" and "legal" and what the realm would should Jon's birth become public. Even if Bobellion didn't happen, nobody would look too kindly on Rhaegar's action and most would consider his marriage to Lyanna invalid and thus Jon a bastard. 

Oh, on that we can agree :-) But since it is the actions of Rhaegar's sworn fanclub that we are trying to parse... :-)

[J. Stargaryen]

23 hours ago, Shmedricko said:

In fact, there is only one other instance in the books where we are given a direct quote from Hightower, and once again, he references the vow to protect the king:

Great catch. I didn't know that, and I had forgotten the specific dialogue from this scene. Needless to say, I'm pleased to find out that there is additional evidence supporting the argument I laid out up thread.

23 hours ago, Shmedricko said:

Other note-worthy things in this passage:

• The Kingsguard are "armored all in snow"
• Rhaegar is identified as the "rightful heir to the Iron Throne"
• Whent also references the vow to protect the king
• Arthur admonishes Jaime for killing Aerys, the king

Also, this whole scene, the condemnation of Jaime by Rhaegar and the KG, really invites the reader to think about the ToJ. Which itself is not a big revelation, since the ToJ three are there. But that fact might lend weight to the characters' words. If GRRM is trying to get us thinking about the ToJ without saying tower of joy, perhaps it's not just for the heck of it. That kind of subtle manipulation makes me suspicious. One thing I noticed was the contrast between the choices of Jaime and the ToJ three.

1. “We all swore oaths,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, so sadly.
2. The shades dismounted from their ghostly horses. When they drew their longswords, it made not a sound. “He was going to burn the city,” Jaime said. “To leave Robert only ashes.”
3. “He was your king,” said Darry.
4. “You swore to keep him safe,” said Whent.
5. “And the children, them as well,” said Prince Lewyn.
6. Prince Rhaegar burned with a cold light, now white, now red, now dark. “I left my wife and children in your hands.”
7. “I never thought he’d hurt them.” Jaime’s sword was burning less brightly now. “I was with the king…”
8. “Killing the king,” said Ser Arthur.
9. “Cutting his throat,” said Prince Lewyn.
10. “The king you had sworn to die for,” said the White Bull.

1. Dayne's sadness should remind us of his sad smile at the ToJ. And here, as with Ser Gerold, we might be learning the cause of that sad smile. Namely, the oaths he swore, which led to him fighting Ned and co.

2. Here is one of the contrasts I mentioned above. Jaime dishonored himself by killing a madman, which was the right thing to do. Whereas the ToJ three died with honor in tact fighting against the equally honorable Ned. Which was probably the wrong thing to do. After all, Ned essentially takes up the three KG's duties by protecting Jon. If they all wanted to protect Jon, then no one needed to die. But honor forced them to do the wrong thing.

3. IF GRRM is subtly trying to pass along information about the ToJ, this line probably speaks for itself. Especially in combination with lines 4, 5 and 6.

4. "You swore to keep [the king] safe. [So did we.]"

5. & 6. I'm combining these two because I think 6 just restates and expands upon 5. Jaime and the ToJ KG were all tasked with guarding Rhaegar's children, and arguably his wives as well. Yet Jaime managed to live while failing to protect Rhaegar's family, while the ToJ KG all died, which might have been the best way to save Jon, counter intuitive as that sounds. Concealed under the cloak of Ned's lie, Jon was kept safe. Could the KG have accomplished that if they had won the fight? Ned emerging from the war with a bastard is one thing, but KG who had been with Rhaegar and Lyanna, with a baby boy. That is not going to go unquestioned. That is, if the KG tried to lie in the first place, which is by no means guaranteed, to say the least.

7. Here's another potential contrast. Jaime doesn't think the children would be in danger. But, as one popular interpretation goes, the reason for the fight boiled down to the KG not being willing to take the chance that Ned would endanger Jon's life, even indirectly. In other words, it didn't occur to Jaime that Rhaegar's children were in danger, while Jon's safety was arguably the primary motive for the KG. Reinforcing a link between the two events, it may well have been Jaime's failure to protect Rhaegar's children from the rebels which forced the KG to fight Ned.

I'm going to stop there because I think 8 and 10 speak for themselves, and I don't see how 9 would relate to the ToJ.

[The Twinslayer]

1 hour ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Great catch. I didn't know that, and I had forgotten the specific dialogue from this scene. Needless to say, I'm pleased to find out that there is additional evidence supporting the argument I laid out up thread.

Also, this whole scene, the condemnation of Jaime by Rhaegar and the KG, really invites the reader to think about the ToJ. Which itself is not a big revelation, since the ToJ three are there. But that fact might lend weight to the characters' words. If GRRM is trying to get us thinking about the ToJ without saying tower of joy, perhaps it's not just for the heck of it. That kind of subtle manipulation makes me suspicious. One thing I noticed was the contrast between the choices of Jaime and the ToJ three.

1. “We all swore oaths,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, so sadly.
2. The shades dismounted from their ghostly horses. When they drew their longswords, it made not a sound. “He was going to burn the city,” Jaime said. “To leave Robert only ashes.”
3. “He was your king,” said Darry.
4. “You swore to keep him safe,” said Whent.
5. “And the children, them as well,” said Prince Lewyn.
6. Prince Rhaegar burned with a cold light, now white, now red, now dark. “I left my wife and children in your hands.”
7. “I never thought he’d hurt them.” Jaime’s sword was burning less brightly now. “I was with the king…”
8. “Killing the king,” said Ser Arthur.
9. “Cutting his throat,” said Prince Lewyn.
10. “The king you had sworn to die for,” said the White Bull.

1. Dayne's sadness should remind us of his sad smile at the ToJ. And here, as with Ser Gerold, we might be learning the cause of that sad smile. Namely, the oaths he swore, which led to him fighting Ned and co.

2. Here is one of the contrasts I mentioned above. Jaime dishonored himself by killing a madman, which was the right thing to do. Whereas the ToJ three died with honor in tact fighting against the equally honorable Ned. Which was probably the wrong thing to do. After all, Ned essentially takes up the three KG's duties by protecting Jon. If they all wanted to protect Jon, then no one needed to die. But honor forced them to do the wrong thing.

3. IF GRRM is subtly trying to pass along information about the ToJ, this line probably speaks for itself. Especially in combination with lines 4, 5 and 6.

4. "You swore to keep [the king] safe. [So did we.]"

5. & 6. I'm combining these two because I think 6 just restates and expands upon 5. Jaime and the ToJ KG were all tasked with guarding Rhaegar's children, and arguably his wives as well. Yet Jaime managed to live while failing to protect Rhaegar's family, while the ToJ KG all died, which might have been the best way to save Jon, counter intuitive as that sounds. Concealed under the cloak of Ned's lie, Jon was kept safe. Could the KG have accomplished that if they had won the fight? Ned emerging from the war with a bastard is one thing, but KG who had been with Rhaegar and Lyanna, with a baby boy. That is not going to go unquestioned. That is, if the KG tried to lie in the first place, which is by no means guaranteed, to say the least.

7. Here's another potential contrast. Jaime doesn't think the children would be in danger. But, as one popular interpretation goes, the reason for the fight boiled down to the KG not being willing to take the chance that Ned would endanger Jon's life, even indirectly. In other words, it didn't occur to Jaime that Rhaegar's children were in danger, while Jon's safety was arguably the primary motive for the KG. Reinforcing a link between the two events, it may well have been Jaime's failure to protect Rhaegar's children from the rebels which forced the KG to fight Ned.

I'm going to stop there because I think 8 and 10 speak for themselves, and I don't see how 9 would relate to the ToJ.

This is interesting analysis.  

One thing we don't know is whether this is supposed to be Jaime's mind at work based on information he actually knows or some kind of mystical or prophetic intervention where information is revealed to the reader (and possibly Jaime) that Jaime would not otherwise know.  

One of the reasons I say this is that the quote from Rhaegar is:  "I left my wife and children in your hands."  You have translated that into "Jaime and the [toj] KG were all tasked with guarding Rhaegar's children, and arguably his wives as well."  In other words, you have taken Rhaegar's singular ("wife") and made it plural ("wives").  And presumably, you are taking the fact that Rhaegar left his children (meaning Rhaenys and Aegon) and redefined children to mean Rhaenys, Aegon and Jon.  

[J. Stargaryen]

27 minutes ago, The Twinslayer said:

This is interesting analysis.

Thanks.

27 minutes ago, The Twinslayer said:

One thing we don't know is whether this is supposed to be Jaime's mind at work based on information he actually knows or some kind of mystical or prophetic intervention where information is revealed to the reader (and possibly Jaime) that Jaime would not otherwise know.

Right. And I'm not sure it matters. I'm certainly not claiming that Jaime knows about Jon and all the details of the ToJ.

27 minutes ago, The Twinslayer said:

One of the reasons I say this is that the quote from Rhaegar is:  "I left my wife and children in your hands."  You have translated that into "Jaime and the [toj] KG were all tasked with guarding Rhaegar's children, and arguably his wives as well."  In other words, you have taken Rhaegar's singular ("wife") and made it plural ("wives").  And presumably, you are taking the fact that Rhaegar left his children (meaning Rhaenys and Aegon) and redefined children to mean Rhaenys, Aegon and Jon.  

I'm simply pointing out Jaime may not be the only KG Rhaegar trusted to defend his wife and family. The difference being the outcome. A comparable situation with contrasting results.

I think this interpretation adds a little something to the text. Not only did Jaime dishonor himself by killing Aerys, while failing to defend Rhaegar's family, but he lived. He still lives. He paid no price for failure and treachery. In contrast, the ToJ trio swallowed bitter pill after bitter pill. They sat out the entire war, and eventually Rhaegar died, and Aerys was murdered, along with Rhaegar's family. All while the KG were far away, doing their duty. Their reward? An unnecessary fight to the death after the war was already lost. A high price to pay for duty and honor. But they paid it because they swore they would. So did Jaime.

[Lord Varys]

@J. Stargaryen

I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense to draw parallels between an artificially created dream (used by Bloodraven to mess with Jaime's head and manipulate him) and Ned's fever dream. The latter is clearly based on historical events (what we don't yet know is how accurate it is) and while it is quite clear that this dream certainly fulfills a purpose in the story and transports some (crucial) meaning we cannot really pin that down as of yet because we don't really know what is correct memory and what is reshaped guilt, fear, sadness, etc. on Eddard Stark's part. Dreams are no accurate representations of anything.

Jaime's dream is even worse in that regard (although even more rewarding on other levels) because it is a dream were the various characters showing are nothing but mouthpieces of an unseen intelligence trying influence the mind and actions of the dreamer. It is no normal dream because in that dream Jaime lacks his hand, unlike his normal dreams.

Jaime is haunted by his dead sworn brothers and Prince Rhaegar in that dream because Bloodraven knows that having failed the trust these men put into him is the strongest regret and guilt Jaime is feeling. It provides him with the key into his mind.

The shades and fake people (Cersei) Jaime is encountering in that dream don't (necessarily) behave they would if they were to encounter Jaime in reality.

And that's why I find it very problematic to use that dream as a source for what actually happened back in KL. Jaime was the last Kingsguard left at the court of Aerys II, and while Rhaegar certainly technically left Elia and his children in Jaime's care also, Aerys II was deciding who Jaime was going to actually protect. He was deciding what his duty was (until Jaime decided that he was no longer doing that).

Jaime had a moral responsibility for Elia and the children, a moral responsibility he still feels and very much recognizes. That's why he can be manipulated. But it is very that he was ever charged with that responsibility in a formal sense. Jaime's memory of his last meeting with Rhaegar does not include something along the lines 'And remember, my friend, keep my wife and my children safe until I return.'

Jaime is there to placate and protect Aerys.

And we should never forget that it is the betrayal of Aerys, the slaying of the king Jaime had sworn to defend and obey, that causes his burning sword to go out, and not his inability to save Elia and the children. In the end this is about Jaime's bad conscience over Aerys.

By the way, Dayne's sadness in this dream could also be fake thing to play off Jaime's guilt. Arthur Dayne was his original knightly mentor, the man who knighted him after the Kingswood Brotherhood thing. In Jaime's mind Dayne would most likely be sad that the boy he saw so much promise in turned out to become a kingslayer.

For the reader this might certainly invoke the tower of joy dream but it certainly wouldn't have been the intention of the author of that dream.

[LynnS]

On 2017-03-28 at 9:15 PM, Lord Varys said:

We have ample evidence that the Kingsguard of Aegon II or Barristan Selmy (when Daenerys disappeared into the Dothraki Sea) did not try everything in their power to ensure that the monarch has KG protection.

Indeed, you've just nailed it for me.  The KG protect the king above all else.  That is their vow. It makes more sense to me that they are guarding the line of succession at the ToJ on Aerys' orders.  That would be Rhaegar and Aegon.  Aerys clearly knows where they are holding up when he sends Gerold Hightower to replace Rhaegar and send him back to KL.  That implies that Rhaegar is not giving the orders and with the death of Rhaegar followed by Aerys; the KG are in fact guarding the infant king.  I have my doubts that he was the boy killed by the Mountain so badly damaged that an identification is questionable.

We have GRRM's curious ellipses and Ned's recollection of "...the boy ...the boy."  Repeated twice and the fight between Ned and Robert before he goes on his mission to the ToJ.  An old wound that is stirred up again when Robert required Ned to take action to assassinate Dany.  That's a line that Ned won't cross, in his fury, telling Robert that he thought the war was meant to end the killing of children.  I think it's quite possible that there was some intelligence or question about the identity of the infant Clegane killed because someone talks, someone always talks. Ned may have had orders to kill Aegon at the ToJ.  Something he refused to do; swapping him for Jon instead and sending Aegon into hiding instead across the Narrow Sea; the same thing he suggests to Cersei.         

[Eilrach Dayne]

On 3/27/2017 at 8:26 AM, Dolorous22 said:

Yes but whilst there was a massive war going on? With Viscerys fleeing and everything? I appreciate the element of doubt but when you look at the whole picture it seems like this 'bastard' probably wasn't a bastard at all. And THREE KG? Three? That's overkill for a mere mistress or a simple bastard. 

And what a three! The Lord Commander himself: Hightower, Ser Arthur Dayne - sword of the morning and Whent - brother to the Lord of Harrenhal - where the tourney took place. These guys are kind of a 'big deal'. Ned, in his dream makes a note of where they are not. And he's right to. What's more, these three seem complicit in not only the defense of the ToJ, but in the kidnapping and plot. 

I like the idea that the fever dream was an amalgamation of memories, anxieties and trauma, all muddled into one very peculiar dream. I need to backtrack through several pages to catch-up as I have been away. I'm just a tad incredulous as to how the presence of three of the most renown knights of their time are protecting what is essentially a mere bastard with no claim to anything. There's every chance that Rhaegar didn't give two flips about who was to be King. Maybe he was focused on the long-night the entire time...

Anyway, time to play catch-up. 

Check these guys out! the order of the green hand is great, their videos are supported by factual evidence and orginized and explained with a lot of forethought. Im convinced they might have the right answer. I was always bothered by the fact that those three KG arguably the best fighters the realm had to offer lost a fight against average fighters at best regardless of the numerical advantage. 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

11 minutes ago, Eilrach Dayne said:

Check these guys out! the order of the green hand is great, their videos are supported by factual evidence and orginized and explained with a lot of forethought. Im convinced they might have the right answer. I was always bothered by the fact that those three KG arguably the best fighters the realm had to offer lost a fight against average fighters at best regardless of the numerical advantage. 

to quote myself;

They at least use more text to support their so called theories than PJ, but that isn’t something great since PJ seem to don’t use the books at all. However the majority if not all of their theories are full of plot holes and are overall ridiculous.

For example;

in their theory that the 3 KG Dayne, Whent and Hightower are Mance, Halfhand and Tormund they forget that for example Tormund has children older than 17 years old. How the White Bull could have children Beyond the Wall before him becoming Tormund? Also somehow Gerold Hightower had a relationship with Maege Mormont and was the father of her daughters, two of them were older than 20 years old, and somehow Maege helped Gerold to help Rhaegar in and out of the North and that was the reason why Jeor was sent to the Wall, in order to pay for his sister’s crime.

ALSO, ALSO WTF THEY DID TO VAL?  How on GRRTH Val is Allyria, Ned’s daughter and Jon’s twin?

Jon is Ned's only trueborn son and Cat's children are bastards because Ned married Jon's mother Ashara at White Harbor and the Tully brothers knew it. So when Hoster forced Ned to marry Cat, Blackfish abandoned his family to serve the Arryns.

Rhaegar and Lyanna were hiding in Winterfell and their son Aegon, YG, was born there.

The KG(HalfhandWhent, TormundHightower AND ManceDayne) are in league with  Wyman Manderly, Stannis, Bloodraven who is prisoner, Mel who is really Shiera, Jeor Mormont,  Maege Mormont,  Leyton Hightower, Illyrio Mopatis( who glamour himself as Salladhor Saan), Varys and Ned against the CotF and the Faceless Men.

[Ygrain]

14 minutes ago, Eilrach Dayne said:

I was always bothered by the fact that those three KG arguably the best fighters the realm had to offer lost a fight against average fighters at best regardless of the numerical advantage. 

Why? It is made abundantly clear that mischance or unconventional tactics change a lot, and mind you: the KG did almost win.

[The Fattest Leech]

2 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

They at least use more text to support their so called theories than PJ, but that isn’t something great since PJ seem to don’t use the books at all. However the majority if not all of their theories are full of plot holes and are overall ridiculous.

For example;

in their theory that the 3 KG Dayne, Whent and Hightower are Mance, Halfhand and Tormund they forget that for example Tormund has children older than 17 years old. How the White Bull could have children Beyond the Wall before him becoming Tormund? Also somehow Gerold Hightower had a relationship with Maege Mormont and was the father of her daughters, two of them were older than 20 years old, and somehow Maege helped Gerold to help Rhaegar in and out of the North and that was the reason why Jeor was sent to the Wall, in order to pay for his sister’s crime.

ALSO, ALSO WTF THEY DID TO VAL?  How on GRRTH Val is Allyria, Ned’s daughter and Jon’s twin?

Jon is Ned's only trueborn son and Cat's children are bastards because Ned married Jon's mother Ashara at White Harbor and the Tully brothers knew it. So when Hoster forced Ned to marry Cat, Blackfish abandoned his family to serve the Arryns.

Rhaegar and Lyanna were hiding in Winterfell and their son Aegon, YG, was born there.

The KG(HalfhandWhent, TormundHightower AND ManceDayne) are in league with  Wyman Manderly, Stannis, Bloodraven who is prisoner, Mel who is really Shiera, Jeor Mormont,  Maege Mormont,  Leyton Hightower, Illyrio Mopatis( who glamour himself as Salladhor Saan), Varys and Ned against the CotF and the Faceless Men.

2 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

to quote myself;

 

I have not watched those videos, but if what you say about them and Val is true.... bwaahhaahaa Just NO.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Just now, The Fattest Leech said:

I have not watched those videos, but if what you say about them and Val is true.... bwaahhaahaa Just NO.

I had saw them. ALL of them. IIRC they claim that Stannis knew the truth and that is why he proposed the marriage between Val and Jon.

[The Fattest Leech]

10 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I had saw them. ALL of them. IIRC they claim that Stannis knew the truth and that is why he proposed the marriage between Val and Jon.

lawdy, lawdy.

I just watched the first video. I don't have time to watch three more just to get to their resolution. Maybe one day soon?

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Just now, The Fattest Leech said:

lawdy, lawdy.

I just watched the first video. I don't have time to watch three more just to get to their resolution. Maybe one day soon?

 Only if you are really REALLY bored. 

[Eilrach Dayne]

1 hour ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

to quote myself;

I dont necesarily agree with the part of the story about the 3 kingsguard still alive and in disguise, I just dont believe Ned and company could beat them in a fight. I think they probably lived beyond the TOJ incident but died after or are just somewhere else in current events, (whatever really happened there i doubt it is as Neds fever dream we see in AGOT). But the idea of Ned and Asahara fathering Jon makes sense to me and Aegon/young griff being Rhaegar and Lyannas child is also very possible. If somehow they could anticipate Tywin killing Elias children why would they only save the one child and leave the other to die? Also Jon Conington dedicated his life to this boy and is convinced that he is Rhaegars son, although he never mentinos Elia and they dont go to Dorne to rally House Martell and all their strengt for Aegon? Also I believe that  Aegon is really Rhaegars son because Connington,one of Rhaegar's closest friends and companions, vouches so fervently for Aegon. The theory the Green Hand talks about makes a lot of sense for me, excluding the 3 KG secret agents part (that is harder to believe or support as you have proven), never the less it does not take away from the possibility of N+A= J and R+L= A. 

I admt some of the theories the green hand talk about seem far fetched, but this one in particular seems really well thought out and possible. Im not saying they are right about all their theories and everyone else is wrong, I just wanted to point out that their explanation for N+A= J is plausible. 

[Eilrach Dayne]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Why? It is made abundantly clear that mischance or unconventional tactics change a lot, and mind you: the KG did almost win.

I agree with you that mischance or unconventional tactics change a lot, even so it is unlikely that 3 of the best fighters the realm knew lost that fight regardless of tactics. Jamie even said that ser Arthur could kill the current KG with his left hand while taking a piss with his right (that KG included the hound and ser loras), so it is hard to believe arguably the best sword the realm has seen and 2 of the next best fighters lost to those 7 average fighters. Regardless if you agree with me or not on that subject I dont thing the TOJ incident happened exactly like Neds fever dream, some sort of fight happened but i believe the dream is purpusley misguiding the readers and we should not take that dream as literal.