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devilish

Dorne could have easily swung the war of 5 kings to anti Lannister supporter favour.

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I find Doran Martell as one of the most frustrating Lords in GOT. For decades, the Martells had to swallow their pride, as the Lannisters got away with possibly one of the worst crimes ever. Robert wasn’t the kind of person you would want to mess with and he had all the support he needed to crush the Martells.
But after his death there was no excuse whatsoever. Renly and Stannis had nothing to do with Elia’s death or the fact that Tywin wasn’t punished and both were rather determined to put the Lion in his cage.  


So lets analyse Dorne prior war of 5 kings. 


Doran has lamented that Dorne can’t raise a huge army. GRRM stated that they can raise similar numbers to the North and the Vale (around 20k?). That’s not insignificant but would definitely not be enough to go solo against Tyrells or Lannisters.  In their favour, Dorne had kept quite a good relationship with the Tyrells (Oberyn-Willas). Also in Oberyn they have quite a decent general with great determination to succeed and play dirty if needed.
So here’s my plan


Dorne should have declared to Renly, on the condition that the Tyrells would give the go ahead to a matriarchal marriage between Arianne and Loras.  From a Tyrell point of view that would be a coup as it will strengthen their influence over a neighbouring region. Renly and Loras might not like the arrangement. However a 20k army is not something the stag can refuse and both Tyrells and Baratheons know not to piss off the Martells unless it can’t be helped. 


Hopefully that would be enough for Renly to raise his lazy arse and invade KL before Stannis can do his move. A 100K horde would wipe up anyone on its way. If it is not the case, then the Martells would be in a perfect position to push Danny’s claim with the Tyrells. Both were former Targ loyalists, who fought side by side to defend the Targ dynasty. Mace would probably be interested in a marriage between Willas and Danny which would give the Tyrells legitimacy over the crown. Willas would become king of Westeros forfeiting the Reach in exchange for the crownlands. Garlan would inherit the Reach and Loras would be a prince of Dorne. Mace would also have brightwater's keep to fill which might end up either to Margaery or a distant Tyrell uncle/aunt (Garlan the Gross?). That’s way more than Joffrey can ever offer.


At the unlikely event of the Tyrells turning Doran’s offer down, the Martells would still be protected from the lion’s rage. Loras is Mace favourite son and he’ll make sure no one would ever hurt him. Hence the Lannister will have to swallow their pride on that one. The Martells would still have influence in highgarden through Loras Tyrell. So if the relationship between Lannister and Tyrell degenerates....they would be the first ones to pounce.
 

What do you think?

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Well Renly already raised Loras to his kingsguard, or rather rainbow guard, who I assume swore vows of celibacy, so Loras seems out of the question. However Willas would be still available, but Arianne would probably see it as another slight,  and refuse. She might have refused Loras for the same reasons, since everybody seems to know he's gay, but she probably would've accepted Loras, since he wasn't crippled or old.

 

Obviously Doran could demand she married anyway, but he seems to be set on giving her a choice in the matter, so I think he wouldn't have forced her.

Edited by Manderly's Rat Cook

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I think that while I like the idea that the ongoing feud between Houses Martell and Tyrell is a facade to hide an alliance, we have no text to support that at the moment. What we've got is a long-standing issue dating at most recent from Willas' injury. Willas doesn't harbor hard feelings, but his father certainly does. The Reach vs Dorne thing in general goes back centuries.

I also think that this is a good move but it collapses somewhat when Mel's shadowbaby kills Renly. Even if Renly had moved faster he still likely would have met his brother on the road somewhere and it would have ended the same way unless you think Oberyn could have convinced the two stags to work together. I'm not sure Stannis would think much of Oberyn or anything he said, but he did offer to make Renly his heir. Oberyn's part would be to convince Renly...after all he'd still end up being king, and Mace would be fine with it because Margaery would still end up being queen in time.

Do you think Renly would have listened to Oberyn?

I imagine it would be no trouble getting the North on board so long as someone convinced Stannis not to remove any of Robb's appendages for daring to accept his men naming him KitN. Then all that's left is the Greyjoys, and while Stannis wouldn't allow them to be kings again, someone (probably Oberyn again) might be able to convince Balon that it would be worth it to join the group and take down House Lannister.

As long as all the ducks line up in the right rows, this could work. But it would mean the story changes drastically, which affects the endgame, it changes the time tables for Aegon and Dany coming to Westeros (which is a problem with dragons not being big enough to ride), possibly leaves Westeros in better stead for the approaching winter which mitigates some of the urgency in the story, and carries the very real possibility that Tyrion ends up dead half-way through the series. We don't want that, do we?

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12 minutes ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Well Renly already raised Loras to his kingsguard, or rather rainbow guard, who I assume swore vows of celibacy, so Loras seems out of the question. However Willas would be still available, but Arianne would probably see it as another slight,  and refuse. She might have refused Loras for the same reasons, since everybody seems to know he's gay, but she probably would've accepted Loras, since he wasn't crippled or old.

 

Obviously Doran could demand she married anyway, but he seems to be set on giving her a choice in the matter, so I think he wouldn't have forced her.

The rainbow guard worked differently to the KG. For example Brienne of Tarth was accepted in the Rainbow Guard. The KG would have never accepted a woman in their ranks.

For all we know, Renly, could allow Loras to leave the Rainbow Guard to marry Arianne in exchange for Dorne's support. Such alliance would be beneficial for both Tyrells (who would have a son dictating things in Sunspear) and Baratheon (20k army top up).

Regarding Arianne, we know that she was worried about was being casted aside in favour of Quentin. With the Tyrells at her side, she would have secured two allies (the Tyrells and Baratheons) to her side, securing her claim to Sunspear. 

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46 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I think that while I like the idea that the ongoing feud between Houses Martell and Tyrell is a facade to hide an alliance, we have no text to support that at the moment. What we've got is a long-standing issue dating at most recent from Willas' injury. Willas doesn't harbor hard feelings, but his father certainly does. The Reach vs Dorne thing in general goes back centuries.

I also think that this is a good move but it collapses somewhat when Mel's shadowbaby kills Renly. Even if Renly had moved faster he still likely would have met his brother on the road somewhere and it would have ended the same way unless you think Oberyn could have convinced the two stags to work together. I'm not sure Stannis would think much of Oberyn or anything he said, but he did offer to make Renly his heir. Oberyn's part would be to convince Renly...after all he'd still end up being king, and Mace would be fine with it because Margaery would still end up being queen in time.

Do you think Renly would have listened to Oberyn?

I imagine it would be no trouble getting the North on board so long as someone convinced Stannis not to remove any of Robb's appendages for daring to accept his men naming him KitN. Then all that's left is the Greyjoys, and while Stannis wouldn't allow them to be kings again, someone (probably Oberyn again) might be able to convince Balon that it would be worth it to join the group and take down House Lannister.

As long as all the ducks line up in the right rows, this could work. But it would mean the story changes drastically, which affects the endgame, it changes the time tables for Aegon and Dany coming to Westeros (which is a problem with dragons not being big enough to ride), possibly leaves Westeros in better stead for the approaching winter which mitigates some of the urgency in the story, and carries the very real possibility that Tyrion ends up dead half-way through the series. We don't want that, do we?

 Second and Third sons do not generally have a great life. From Benjen Stark who ended a member of the NW right to Bynden Tully who ended up in a self-inflicted exile at the Vale, 2nd and 3rd sons tend to become a bit of a problem especially when the heir to the Lordship ends up having sons of his own. Loras himself ended up a glorified sentrymen first for Renly then for Joffrey.


In such circumstances, a matriarchal marriage to the second most powerful person in Sunspear is a bit of a coup. Sure, Arianne’s children would be Martells but they would have Tyrell blood in them. Mace would be their grandfather + Willas and Renly would be their uncles. The Martells can be described as proud and hot headed but they certainly do defend family. If such marriage occurs, then the Tyrells can rest assured that the Martells will be at their side if they ever need them
In time, Loras would grow extremely influential in Sunspear. As Arianne’s husband and father of her children he’ll probably end up leading Dorne’s army and he would have a big say in their politics. Also we all know about Loras ‘dubious’ sexuality.  Dorne is the most tolerant of the lot in terms of accepting such a thing.


I am pretty confident that Renly and Willas would see such marriage as a great matchup for both houses and they would be able to convince Mace to give his go ahead.  For Renly it would mean not having to face that ‘Southern’ problem Aegon the conqueror had to face.  Willas on the other hand would be able to secure 3 of the Reach’s borders (Dorne, Stormlands and Crownlands) which is pretty significant considering that he can barely lead people to war himself. Mace would probably see it as Dorne’s way to make amends for Willas injury. 

A Tyrell-Baratheon-Dorne alliance would be a force to reckon with, with great potential to cause a domino effect. Such horde might convince LF to switch sides, possibly bringing the Vale to the fray for a price. It might dissuade Stannis not to attack his brother (wishful thinking but oh well) and it would certainly force Robb to rethink his strategy. 
 

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9 minutes ago, devilish said:

 Second and Third sons do not generally have a great life. From Benjen Stark who ended a member of the NW right to Bynden Tully who ended up in a self-inflicted exile at the Vale, 2nd and 3rd sons tend to become a bit of a problem especially when the heir to the Lordship ends up having sons of his own. Loras himself ended up a glorified sentrymen first for Renly then for Joffrey.


In such circumstances, a matriarchal marriage to the second most powerful person in Sunspear is a bit of a coup. Sure, Arianne’s children would be Martells but they would have Tyrell blood in them. Mace would be their grandfather + Willas and Renly would be their uncles. The Martells can be described as proud and hot headed but they certainly do defend family. If such marriage occurs, then the Tyrells can rest assured that the Martells will be at their side if they ever need them
In time, Loras would grow extremely influential in Sunspear. As Arianne’s husband and father of her children he’ll probably end up leading Dorne’s army and he would have a big say in their politics. Also we all know about Loras ‘dubious’ sexuality.  Dorne is the most tolerant of the lot in terms of accepting such a thing.


I am pretty confident that Renly and Willas would see such marriage as a great matchup for both houses and they would be able to convince Mace to give his go ahead.  For Renly it would mean not having to face that ‘Southern’ problem Aegon the conqueror had to face.  Willas on the other hand would be able to secure 3 of the Reach’s borders (Dorne, Stormlands and Crownlands) which is pretty significant considering that he can barely lead people to war himself. Mace would probably see it as Dorne’s way to make amends for Willas injury. 

A Tyrell-Baratheon-Dorne alliance would be a force to reckon with, with great potential to cause a domino effect. Such horde might convince LF to switch sides, possibly bringing the Vale to the fray for a price. It might dissuade Stannis not to attack his brother (wishful thinking but oh well) and it would certainly force Robb to rethink his strategy. 
 

I didn't take issue with the Arianne-Loras match. I just said I don't think the two families were as cooperative as you seemed to suggest in your opening post.

It wouldn't have been a problem for Robb at all. He sent his mother to treat with Renly, and Renly was fine with Robb calling himself KitN as long as he acknowledged Renly's sovereignty. They would have been good. In fact, the massive Tyrell-Baratheon-Martell-Stark alliance might have been able to take down Stannis and the Lannisters. Especially if we got the Greyjoys and Littlefinger in on everything.

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43 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I didn't take issue with the Arianne-Loras match. I just said I don't think the two families were as cooperative as you seemed to suggest in your opening post.

It wouldn't have been a problem for Robb at all. He sent his mother to treat with Renly, and Renly was fine with Robb calling himself KitN as long as he acknowledged Renly's sovereignty. They would have been good. In fact, the massive Tyrell-Baratheon-Martell-Stark alliance might have been able to take down Stannis and the Lannisters. Especially if we got the Greyjoys and Littlefinger in on everything.

Well, they didn’t break bread together like Renly and erm Loras? Did. However I doubt that they hated one another. What happened to Willas was an accident. Willas himself accepts it. A marriage between the two houses would have had a beneficial effect to the relationship of both houses, it would strengthen the Tyrell’s influence considerably, it would bring Dorne back to the fold and it would improve Margaery’s chances of sitting on the IT.  I can see Mace warming up to such offer

Robb would be locked down South and with a relatively small army. That crown of his would weigh heavily on his head, considering that his numbers will dwindle even more as he battles the Lion. Whoever wins that war, he’ll be  left at the Stag’s complete mercy.  His precious hostage of his earns him brownie points with the lion, however, it means nothing to Renly’s horde.
 

Renly would be wise to allow Robb to bend the knee as that would sort the North's problem. However, god knows, what an extra 20k army can do to someone's ego. Renly might even be tempted to seal a deal with Balon, who'll take a piece of the North (the neck & the twins?) in exchange of him keeping Moat Cailin long enough to crush Robb and force him to bend the knee. That would weaken the North by making it difficult for them to cross South.

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I can see several reasons that this wouldn´t work - the animosity between Dorne and The Reach, the lack of need for more soldiers (why do you need 20k more soldiers if you aready have 100+k and knows that your enemies can´t stand against you nor will do common cause) and that Renly hardly would change his battle-plan anyway. He never lost on strategical reasons.

But a severe issue few others seem to take up is that the Baratheons are very much complicit in this Lannister crime. Sure, Lannisters did the slaying and raping but Robert was the one who "saw only dragonspawn", who refused to punish Tywin in any shape or form and therefore, according to the superiour officer logic, take the entire blame on himself. He absolved him as a king, washing the offence away. They got away with their crime BECAUSE of Robert. And Renly is using the claim of his brother, is he willing to denounce Roberts lack of justice? Since he was his master of laws, I think not. 

And if Doran isn´t getting a regime that are willing to condem and punish not only Lannisters but also the Baratheons (or, in this case that said Baratheon apoligizes and compensates the Martells officially) then Doran isn´t interested.

So tbh, I can´t see why any of the parts here would be interested. Renly doesn´t need the soldiers (and there was never any risk that Dorne would support the Lannisters) and Doran doesn´t get his justice. 

Edited by Protagoras

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I agree with the concept that Doran missed a great opportunity, not with how you think he should've gone about it.  Declaring for Renly and taking care of Stannis for him when he landed at Storms End would've ensured Renlys victory and Tywins defeat.  He should've asked simply for a spot on the small council for someone from Dorne and for Oberyn to get to execute any surviving Lannisters/Gregor.

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2 hours ago, devilish said:

Well, they didn’t break bread together like Renly and erm Loras? Did. However I doubt that they hated one another. What happened to Willas was an accident. Willas himself accepts it. A marriage between the two houses would have had a beneficial effect to the relationship of both houses, it would strengthen the Tyrell’s influence considerably, it would bring Dorne back to the fold and it would improve Margaery’s chances of sitting on the IT.  I can see Mace warming up to such offer

Robb would be locked down South and with a relatively small army. That crown of his would weigh heavily on his head, considering that his numbers will dwindle even more as he battles the Lion. Whoever wins that war, he’ll be  left at the Stag’s complete mercy.  His precious hostage of his earns him brownie points with the lion, however, it means nothing to Renly’s horde.
 

Renly would be wise to allow Robb to bend the knee as that would sort the North's problem. However, god knows, what an extra 20k army can do to someone's ego. Renly might even be tempted to seal a deal with Balon, who'll take a piece of the North (the neck & the twins?) in exchange of him keeping Moat Cailin long enough to crush Robb and force him to bend the knee. That would weaken the North by making it difficult for them to cross South.

I don't see why he'd be "locked" down south. The battle commanders involved would use the Northmen where they are of best benefit. If the Greyjoys can be kept from harrying the North there's no particular problem with Robb being down south or reason to lock him there.

He did pretty damn well battling the Lion. Battlefield performance was never his problem. It was Human Resources where he needed help. And if he was allied with Renly/Dorne, he'd be far less likely to face any problems from Lord Karstark, Lord Frey, or anyone else. 

Renly was planning to do that even without an alliance with Dorne. He didn't even mind Robb having a title and crown, as long as he was acknowledged as his overlord, or high king.

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Renly believed he would get Dornish support sooner or later. When he died, Petyr brokered the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, which broke Stannis on the Blackwater. Meanwhile, Greyjoy rebelled and snuck up behind the breakaway Stark-Tully alliance, and Bolton-Frey are trying to clean up. All this is happening as Arryn remains tucked away behind the Mountains of the Moon. The only house to offer an alliance to Dorne was Baratheon (Lannister). Why would Martell care to back any of them? 

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I agree Doran missed an opening, but we're still overthinking it, because we're thinking like Doran: how to find a horse that he can back. If Doran was more honest - about wanting revenge and then safety, and nothing else - he could have seen a chance before Stannis and Renly ever fought.

Instead of sending your army to join Renly/Stannis at Storm's End / in the Reach, you can send them to King's Landing, flying whatever banner you want. You can make Cersei's great fear of Tywin being busy with Robb while her son gets beheaded come true, take 2 out of 3 of Tywin's children and all of his grandchildren prisoner, and the political situation is still unstable, which means you get to move again! Now you can have Oberyn send letters to his buddy Willas, asking if Renly is a worthy King, make it look like you're tempted; put the Lannisters on trial for both the Sack and for Stannis's accusations (possibly send him a letter asking for more evidence, again reducing hostility), and whenever anyone actually arrives, you can make it clear that you were always holding King's Landing for the Rightful True King, Renly Stannis Aegon Euron Daenaerys.

This strategy accomplishes your goals - revenge, and an end to the Lannister-Baratheon state - , and since it doesn't require you to get in bed too heavily with any of the claimants, you don't have to worry half as much about whether they'll really last! I believe the reason Doran didn't go for it is that he was afraid to take the gambles required:

  • Being able to ensure that the Lannister-Baratheons, the only faction to whom the Martells are totally irreconcilable, do not win.
    • This requires some confidence in Robb Stark and the Iron Throne claimants, but without holding King's Landing, I don't think the Lannisters would be able to win. They were hard-pressed even with King's Landing - even the Lannister-Tyrell alliance only barely saved them in time.
  • Being able to move fast enough to ensure they get the "first mover" advantage by forcing everyone to react to their taking King's Landing. Logistically, very difficult.
  • Being able to balance the competing tendencies and interests of the possible winners. Stannis will punish you if he wins and views you as too disloyal / too criminal; Renly will punish you if you support Stannis too fervently or if the Reachmen think you have grander political ambitions beyond revenge; the Targaryens will punish you if you're too closely tied to the Baratheon monarchs. This is a tricky, but not impossible balancing act.

If Doran could pull it off, Oberyn Martell could have his very own "Hour of the Wolf" moment, where he is briefly the power in King's Landing, punishes the Lannisters for the Sack (and makes sure whatever trials, Great Councils, alliances, and skullduggery go down result in the Lannisters losing), before graciously exiting to the new tenants of the Red Keep, who will most likely be just as relieved to be free of the butcher work as Robert was. Of course, this also requires Doran to admit to himself that what he wants to do to Tywin is not that different than what Tywin did.  Provided Sunspear's navy (or a forced march) could get the troops there in time, Doran's caution and conscience definitely caused a missed opportunity.

Edited by velo-knight
copy-paste error

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48 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

If Doran could pull it off, Oberyn Martell could have his very own "Hour of the Wolf" moment, where he is briefly the power in King's Landing, punishes the Lannisters for the Sack (and makes sure whatever trials, Great Councils, alliances, and skullduggery go down result in the Lannisters losing), before graciously exiting to the new tenants of the Red Keep, who will most likely be just as relieved to be free of the butcher work as Robert was.

Yes!  This is it, the "Hour of the Spear" - the only question is if Dorne has enough manpower to take whatever force is left behind at KL?  10,000 spears ain't what it used to be.....

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Just now, HelmHammerhand said:

Yes!  This is it, the "Hour of the Spear" - the only question is if Dorne has enough manpower to take whatever force is left behind at KL?  10,000 spears ain't what it used to be.....

Yeah, he'd need to really find every last spear available, 15-20k is a much better number to take KL. Hiring a few mercenaries to reinforce their initial siege camp would've been smart, too.

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Dorne may well have been able to sweep in and swing the fight, one way or the other. But that would have allowed a stability to begin returning to the realm. It seems like Doran's end Game is his Targaryen Plot. Better to let things play out as they did. Destabilize the realm for the final move.

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8 minutes ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

Dorne may well have been able to sweep in and swing the fight, one way or the other. But that would have allowed a stability to begin returning to the realm. It seems like Doran's end Game is his Targaryen Plot. Better to let things play out as they did. Destabilize the realm for the final move.

Hour of the Spear / Second Sack scenarios still allow this, IMO. Despite Renly's seeming strength (and Stannis's ability), both Baratheon candidates had fairly glaring weaknesses. A Second Usurpation in as many successive reigns would probably tarnish the Baratheon legacy permanently, and the situation with Tywin and Stannis and Renly and Robb doesn't look like it's going to resolved easily anytime soon. Besides, Doran himself realizes that KL is "a nest of vipers" and that those vipers have schemes - nothing stops him from then recalling Oberyn and his forces with their hostages and plunder, and leaving the vipers to continue to pump their venom into whoever takes the Iron Throne next.

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19 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Hour of the Spear / Second Sack scenarios still allow this, IMO. Despite Renly's seeming strength (and Stannis's ability), both Baratheon candidates had fairly glaring weaknesses. A Second Usurpation in as many successive reigns would probably tarnish the Baratheon legacy permanently, and the situation with Tywin and Stannis and Renly and Robb doesn't look like it's going to resolved easily anytime soon. Besides, Doran himself realizes that KL is "a nest of vipers" and that those vipers have schemes - nothing stops him from then recalling Oberyn and his forces with their hostages and plunder, and leaving the vipers to continue to pump their venom into whoever takes the Iron Throne next.

Yeah. The only thing about Dorne acting...it would be a declaration of intentions and force them to take sides, it's  advantageous for them to hold off. If you want a Targ on the throne, why aid in securing someone else's reign, allowing that person to start forging alliances and solidifying their power, meanwhile alienating yourself from potential allies. Plus, why exhaust any of your resources.

So far things are working out well for Dorne.

Edited by BricksAndSparrows
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8 hours ago, devilish said:

Renly and Stannis had nothing to do with Elia’s death or the fact that Tywin wasn’t punished and both were rather determined to put the Lion in his cage. 

Not good enough. They are after all basing their claims from Robert (and one of them even state that he is that he is the true predecessor). And using Roberts claim mean that you will be held responsible for his policies, in the same way they can´t, like Daenerys or Aegon can, ignore those debts Robert took in his name.. So Renly and Stannis need to do more than say "we didn´t do it".

To take the dornish negotiating position, if anyone of you two become king - will you officialy apologize for your brothers action and made it clear to everyone that what Robert did was wrong. Will you also admit that by refusing to punish the Lannister, Robert took said crime upon himself and that this act has stained not only him but his house as well. Further, will you recompense house Martell for said stain commited by house Baratheon in land, titles, status (which will take the shape in permanent councillors during your reign) and money and finally, will you allow house Martell to dispense justice over the Lannisters in any way they see fit regardless of any and all objections others might have about this (As in, if house Martell want to flay Joffrey alive and have Cersei gang raped then that is exactly what will happen).

Any other response than Yes on all these questions means Doran won´t be interested.

Edited by Protagoras

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7 minutes ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

Yeah. The only thing about Dorne acting...it would be a declaration of intentions and force them to take sides,

Why? This is my big critique of Doran's strategy: I think he was in a position to pull a Balon Greyjoy (minus independence bid) and have it actually work out. All he'd be doing is declaring who he's against, and he only has to do that once his forces are at / through the gates. Instead he spends his time trying to figure out which horse to back, instead of just shooting the horse he wants to lose.

7 minutes ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

it's  advantageous for them to hold off. If you want a Targ on the throne,

Then I think there's a tension in Doran's objectives: revenge, or a Targaryen restoration?

7 minutes ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

why aid in securing someone else's reign, allowing that person to start forging alliances and solidifying their power, meanwhile alienating yourself from potential allies. Plus, why exhaust any of your resources.

So far things are working out well for Dorne.

Tell that to Quentyn.

Or Tywin, who died at near the height of his family's power, instead of living to see his family imprisoned, cast down, and executed.

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