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Dorne could have easily swung the war of 5 kings to anti Lannister supporter favour.


devilish

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1 minute ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

I think you're forgetting. It's Tywin he wants to punish. Think Sun Tzu. Why ruin the house of Lannister? Why not just remove the people who he specifically wants to punish. The Lannister's are a powerful house, and there is no reason to cross a potential ally to the crown off the list.

He specifically mentions that he wants to undo all of Tywin's accomplishments. That means the Lannisters can't be on the Iron Throne, and the pride of house Lannister has to be weakened. Those are the two things Tywin cares most about - and taking KL in early Clash would accomplish that, while Tywin lived to see it.

1 minute ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

Besides, the Lannister's represented such a significant portion of Joffrey's strength, "shooting their horse," would have been so decisive, it would have put someone on the Throne.

Sure, but why does Doran need to care about who? It's unlikely he'll be punished - especially if he can convince the next army to arrive at KL after his that he was always on their side, or if nothing else purely motivated by personal reasons and not a threat. All the proposals to marry into one of the other factions permanently bind him to a cause that may not succeed.

1 minute ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

Please elaborate as to why these two things are mutually exclusive?

My point was, that instead of joining with any of the pretenders, there's a window in early Clash where he can take his revenge solo if he can work out the logistics. Then he can back the Targaryens later, if he wants.

I certainly don't think they're necessarily exclusive, they just were at that moment in time.

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22 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

He specifically mentions that he wants to undo all of Tywin's accomplishments. That means the Lannisters can't be on the Iron Throne, and the pride of house Lannister has to be weakened. Those are the two things Tywin cares most about - and taking KL in early Clash would accomplish that, while Tywin lived to see it.

I'm not suggesting putting Lannisters on the throne..

You know... wars are like eggs, there is more than one way to cook them.... :unsure:

Okay well disregard my rickety proverb..

My point is that, doing it your way, would not have necessarily been completely ineffective. It certainly would have been the best thing to do if Doran could have predicted Tywins demise. But obviously he couldn't have known what would happen with Tyrion and Tywin and the toilet death.

Based on the ways things were going, whether or not the Lannisters were ultimately victorious, the war would have cost them and left them far less able to deal with a second attack when the Targ plans were ready to be implemented.

Let's say for instance, Doran decided to do it your way, and pull the trigger. Whoever took the throne would do so without having taken the losses otherwise inflicted by the Lannisters, and this undetermined victor, would later have to be fought when it was time for the dragon to take the Throne...

Then there is the matter of whoever lost...

While it is easy enough for Doran to say:

"Hey gang, I'm not choosing a side, I'm just taking this opportunity to knock some Lannisters out the box."

...Whoever ultimately wins might have less of a problem with that, but the losers are most certainly going to take it personally. This is problematic, because there are going to be a lot of losers.

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Sure, but why does Doran need to care about who? It's unlikely he'll be punished - especially if he can convince the next army to arrive at KL after his that he was always on their side, or if nothing else purely motivated by personal reasons and not a threat. All the proposals to marry into one of the other factions permanently bind him to a cause that may not succeed.

And then he will ultimately need to betray this side...

Talking through all of this, the more I think about it, the more I would agree that your way would make the most sense if vengence was Doran's only motivation. But look how long he had been invested in the Targaryen restoration. I don't think your course of action is the best way to accomplish both of those ends.

At the end of the day, it's the difference of fighting a battle for revenge, than a second for restoration, when the same ends can be accomplished with a single battle.

Consider this, war against the Lannisters would amount to war against the Crown. How many bannerman might the Martel's lose? And then again when they switch sides? Probably not many considering Dorne's history, but still..

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On 3/20/2017 at 8:46 AM, devilish said:


Doran has lamented that Dorne can’t raise a huge army. GRRM stated that they can raise similar numbers to the North and the Vale (around 20k?). That’s not insignificant but would definitely not be enough to go solo against Tyrells or Lannisters.  In their favour, Dorne had kept quite a good relationship with the Tyrells (Oberyn-Willas). Also in Oberyn they have quite a decent general with great determination to succeed and play dirty if needed.
So here’s my plan

 

People of Dorne and the Reach were aged enemy for thousands of years, I would not call they had a good relationship, and did Oberyn crippled Willas ?

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3 minutes ago, marsyao said:

People of Dorne and the Reach were aged enemy for thousands of years, I would not call they had a good relationship, and did Oberyn crippled Willas ?

He did, but Willas did not hold him accountable and they remained friends, corresponding in the following years. Your comment about the Dorne/Reach relationship IS spot on however.

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2 minutes ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

He did, but Willas did not hold him accountable and they remained friends, corresponding in the following years. Your comment about the Dorne/Reach relationship IS spot on however.

I am not sure them be friend, Willas was a first rate politician

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9 minutes ago, marsyao said:

I am not sure them be friend, Willas was a first rate politician

An offering of friendship and an open proclamation of "no ill will," would have served. You can read into their long running correspondence about horses as the conniving of a politician, but it would only be supposition.

Can you elaborate on Willas' bona fides as a politician?

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Just now, BricksAndSparrows said:

An offering of friendship and an open proclamation of "no ill will," would have served. You can read into their long running correspondence about horses as the conniving of a politician, but it would only be supposition.

Can you elaborate on Willas' bona fides as a politician?

He was the one acutally running the Reach after his father going to King's Landing, and despite being a cripple, his two younger brothers and someone like Oberyn still respected him

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45 minutes ago, marsyao said:

And, I don't believe anybody would like the person who crippled you for life, by not showing that and be friend with that people was unmistakable quality of a mature politician

Meh... I don't know if that justifies considering him a first rate politician. Certainly not a bad one, but it still doesn't make him Littlefinger..

Even if he was a great politician, I don't think THAT'S enough to call the legitimacy his friendship with Oberyn into question.

The whole thing seems spurious.

Either way, you're right about the relationship between Dorne and the Reach.
 

45 minutes ago, marsyao said:

And, I don't believe anybody would like the person who crippled you for life, by not showing that and be friend with that people was unmistakable quality of a mature politician

I think the point is that Willas didn't hold him responsible. He had a bad fall jousting. It could have happened to anyone. When you go to Joust, you accept that this person is going to be trying to knock you off the horse. They know the dangers and consider themselves gallant for taking the risk.

People get into life changing car accidents and don't hold it against the driver.

Mother's correspond with the death row inmates that murdered their children.

The scope of human emotions is vast. So is people's capacity for forgiveness and understanding.
 

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6 hours ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

I'm not suggesting putting Lannisters on the throne..

You know... wars are like eggs, there is more than one way to cook them.... :unsure:

Okay well disregard my rickety proverb..

My point is that, doing it your way, would not have necessarily been completely ineffective. It certainly would have been the best thing to do if Doran could have predicted Tywins demise. But obviously he couldn't have known what would happen with Tyrion and Tywin and the toilet death.

I'm not sure what our disagreement is, then. We both agree he wants revenge on Tywin. We both agree the best revenge is seeing the Lannister throne taken away.

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Based on the ways things were going, whether or not the Lannisters were ultimately victorious, the war would have cost them and left them far less able to deal with a second attack when the Targ plans were ready to be implemented.

Let's say for instance, Doran decided to do it your way, and pull the trigger. Whoever took the throne would do so without having taken the losses otherwise inflicted by the Lannisters, and this undetermined victor, would later have to be fought when it was time for the dragon to take the Throne...

Unless Doran & Oberyn can use their new position in King's Landing to keep everyone off balance long enough for their preferred candidate to arrive. Again, calling for trials and councils to placate Stannis while secretly sending letters to Willas about Renly; offering to return Sansa and Ice to Robb on the condition that he keeps Tywin occupied, etc.,

Assuming Doran and Oberyn can't pull that particular juggling act off, they're still in a decent position for their dreamed-of Restoration. Whichever Baratheon brother wins in the end will likely be a kinslayer with serious stability issues (either a Usurping younger brother with little experience in war with the backing of yet another grasping high lordly family; or an unpopular, seemingly inflexible infidel whose methods of punishment might suddenly remind people of a certain deposed cousin...), neither solves the issue of Northern/Riverlands independence (and Iron Islands, too - plus, the Westerlands themselves might choose independence rather than submit to either Renly or especially Stannis). Oh, and if I'm Doran, I might be assuming the Vale hasn't jumped onboard with Robb only because of fear he can't win - yet once the Lannisters are beaten I might assume the Vale joins him, keeping the realm even more divided. Still ripe for my Targaryen savior...

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Then there is the matter of whoever lost...

While it is easy enough for Doran to say:

"Hey gang, I'm not choosing a side, I'm just taking this opportunity to knock some Lannisters out the box."

...Whoever ultimately wins might have less of a problem with that, but the losers are most certainly going to take it personally. This is problematic, because there are going to be a lot of losers.

Isn't that kind of the point? The Baratheon brothers can't punish Doran for putting them on the Throne, and neither will a Targaryen; so once you ensure the Lannisters lose the throne, they'll be unable to get you for at least a generation. At this point, his planned-for restoration has happened, and the Martells are likely safe for at least one more generation; and by the time the Lannisters can worm their way back into royal favor, the original issue may no longer command anyone's passions.

 

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I think the biggest point against it is that at the point war breaks out, Doran doesn't know Viserys is dead. As far as he is concerned, he still expects a Dothraki crossing of the narrow sea, with the last Targaryen at its head. What contact between Varys, Illyo and Doran is we don't know, but the marriage pact indicates that there is some. As far as Dorne is concerned, it would be better off saving its armies for the wars to come, because unlike the other kingdoms, Dorne is aware of the wars to come.

And from Doran's point of view, what gain could there be? Destruction of the Lannisters? It will happen, either in this war or the next. Westeros in disarray? Happening anyway.

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16 hours ago, velo-knight said:

There were other paths for the Rebellion to have taken, which Doran might have liked more.

You might think feel that way, but we don't know that Doran does, and if anything he's likely to have better information than us. In any case, none of this is going to be comforting to the man whose sister was brutally raped and murdered alongside her children.

I'm sure this is also very comforting. Robert "only" rewarded Tywin by marrying his daughter, giving him enormous influence and power, and ensuring that Tywin's own grandson would sit the throne.

It's not about blame, it's about justice. Renly and Stannis are seeking to inherit something that innately was built on the blood and suffering of Doran's family. They didn't have anything to do with it, but they can't fully repudiate it, either. That makes them his enemies. The Targaryens, on the other hand, are fellow victims and will be more than happy to give him justice, vengeance, and to publicly and frequently mention the savagery and evilness of the Sack - which makes them his friends.

Yes, he did. He had more men than Stannis when Stannis set sail for Storm's End in Clash, and at that time Cersei was rightly worried that Stannis might land, take King's Landing, and orchestrate a coup before Tywin could reinforce. Doran did have the men to take the city, nobody said he needed to hold it. His mistake was in not recognizing the chance he had, and the precariousness of Tywin's position in early Clash.

1) I am curious to you what other paths he could take. You can't negotiate the man. Rickard tried and he ended up bbqed. You can't negotiate with Rhaegar either. He kidnapped Lyanna and he vanished in thin air for most of the war, leaving his wife and children to the mercy of that mad man only to re-appear at the battle of the trident. Viserys is too young and Danny wasn't yet born. 

2) Doran was stuck in Dorne throughout the war. Most of his men were wiped out. We've got the opinion from people who actually bothered fighting the war. People like Ned, Stannis and Robert on one side and Selmy on the other. What happened in KL is pretty straight forward to me. When it was evident that the Targs had been defeated, Tywin assaulted KL and made a massacre. By doing so, he took his pound of flesh (as he always does, the Lannisters always pay their debts and all that) and he also made sure to pave the way for Cersei. Robert's biggest mistake was not to condemn such a crime. TBF he might not even had the men to do so.

3) And that was Robert's only mistake throughout the war. A mistake he paid with his life. That doesn't mean that the rebellion wasn't just. Also Renly has nothing to do with his brother's mistake.

4) The rebellion was just and people die during wars. As said, what happened to Elia was to be condemned but it was Lannisters doing not Renly's. Actually Renly was working on stripping the crown from Lannisters hands and he did that before and after the war of 5 kings.

5) Well no one knows exactly how many men Doran has. GRRM says that they can raise as many men as the North and the Vale (20k-30k?). However, during Robert's rebellion he could only send 10k Dornish men. I think the 20k estimate is correct. Also Dorne have no fleet, so if they wanted to reach KL, then they would have to cross either the Reach (60k) or the Stormlands (20k). Without Tyrell/Renly's consent, Dorne's army would either be defeated or it would be heavily depleted by the time it reached KL.

If Dorran hated the Robert then rest assured that Dorne would have never bent the knee to him. Dorne had been successful in repealing a much tougher opponent than the crowned Stag, one who could rely on 6 other kingdoms + dragons.

I think that we've got a skewed view of Dorne (mainly because there are more Lannisters among the main characters then Martells). We're talking here about people who are at the forefront of human rights, granting bastards and women far more rights when compared to the rest of Westeros etc. If Dorne was as vindictive as the Lannisters potray them to be, they would have sent Myrcella into very tiny pieces. Instead we see Doran treating her with respect and Arianne trying to fight for her right to the IT. Oberyn died defending a Lannister (ok he wanted to face the Mountain in a fight but he could have got that in an easier way if he wanted to). I believe that they are far nicer and more prone to reason then they are portrayed to be. Actually, Id rather reason with them then with Tywin.

 

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3 hours ago, devilish said:

1) I am curious to you what other paths he could take. You can't negotiate the man. Rickard tried and he ended up bbqed.

I believe you yourself outlined some other paths for the rebellion with your Rhaenys-betrothed-to-Robert scenario. There was no reason Robert couldn't have fulfilled Rhaegar's original plan to depose / declaw Aerys by appointing himself regent. You're right that Tywin chose to deny him those options - and Robert rewarded him for it, and was publicly indifferent to the less bloody possibilities. 

3 hours ago, devilish said:

You can't negotiate with Rhaegar either. He kidnapped Lyanna and he vanished in thin air for most of the war, leaving his wife and children to the mercy of that mad man only to re-appear at the battle of the trident. Viserys is too young and Danny wasn't yet born. 

Irrelevant to the post-Trident hypotheticals, but you don't know that Doran believes that, and none of us could prove that ourselves. We only know what we're told - perhaps, in a generation after ASoIaF, the denizens of Westeros would believe that Ned Stark was a venal traitor who betrayed his best friend's children to put an infidel on the throne. Pretty much the only thing we actually know with regards to Rhaegar and Lyanna is that they disappeared together. People have invented all sorts of explanations for this, but nobody actually knows - for all anyone knows, they could've been sucked into a portal to Narnia. As far as I know, nobody even tried to come to a diplomatic resolution that excluded Aerys, so nobody was given a chance to address any of their concerns or explain any of the events that got them to the Trident.

3 hours ago, devilish said:

2) Doran was stuck in Dorne throughout the war. Most of his men were wiped out. We've got the opinion from people who actually bothered fighting the war. People like Ned, Stannis and Robert on one side and Selmy on the other. What happened in KL is pretty straight forward to me. When it was evident that the Targs had been defeated, Tywin assaulted KL and made a massacre. By doing so, he took his pound of flesh (as he always does, the Lannisters always pay their debts and all that) and he also made sure to pave the way for Cersei. Robert's biggest mistake was not to condemn such a crime. TBF he might not even had the men to do so.

Robert's political problems are not Doran's concern when they're solved with the rape and murder of his sister and her children.

3 hours ago, devilish said:

3) And that was Robert's only mistake throughout the war. A mistake he paid with his life. That doesn't mean that the rebellion wasn't just. Also Renly has nothing to do with his brother's mistake.

Except trying to inherit his crown.

3 hours ago, devilish said:

4) The rebellion was just and people die during wars. As said, what happened to Elia was to be condemned but it was Lannisters doing not Renly's. Actually Renly was working on stripping the crown from Lannisters hands and he did that before and after the war of 5 kings.

How remarkably compassionate. I'm sure that makes Doran feel much better. And Renly's crown is built on the blood of his family, so no, I don't think that makes Doran happy.

3 hours ago, devilish said:

5) Well no one knows exactly how many men Doran has. GRRM says that they can raise as many men as the North and the Vale (20k-30k?). However, during Robert's rebellion he could only send 10k Dornish men. I think the 20k estimate is correct. Also Dorne have no fleet, so if they wanted to reach KL, then they would have to cross either the Reach (60k) or the Stormlands (20k). Without Tyrell/Renly's consent, Dorne's army would either be defeated or it would be heavily depleted by the time it reached KL.

I think he sent 10k because that was the minimum he could send. I don't think Doran was that fond of Aerys, either. As for getting revenge on his own: Renly has the logistical skills of Cersei's wheelhouse and Stannis is outnumbered and preoccupied with Renly's betrayal. I doubt a forced march up the boneway and through the Stormlands would face serious opposition, and I doubt either would catch up - or even try.

3 hours ago, devilish said:

If Dorran hated the Robert then rest assured that Dorne would have never bent the knee to him. Dorne had been successful in repealing a much tougher opponent than the crowned Stag, one who could rely on 6 other kingdoms + dragons.

And Dorne was led by sterner folks that Doran, who wants to spare his people from needless suffering. Since that time, Dorne has become one with the other kingdoms, and may be reliant on their neighbors for trade.

3 hours ago, devilish said:

I think that we've got a skewed view of Dorne (mainly because there are more Lannisters among the main characters then Martells). We're talking here about people who are at the forefront of human rights, granting bastards and women far more rights when compared to the rest of Westeros etc. If Dorne was as vindictive as the Lannisters potray them to be, they would have sent Myrcella into very tiny pieces. Instead we see Doran treating her with respect and Arianne trying to fight for her right to the IT. Oberyn died defending a Lannister (ok he wanted to face the Mountain in a fight but he could have got that in an easier way if he wanted to). I believe that they are far nicer and more prone to reason then they are portrayed to be. Actually, Id rather reason with them then with Tywin.

So would I, but that doesn't mean Doran - and his entire country, judging by the Sand Snake plots - doesn't want revenge.

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37 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I believe you yourself outlined some other paths for the rebellion with your Rhaenys-betrothed-to-Robert scenario. There was no reason Robert couldn't have fulfilled Rhaegar's original plan to depose / declaw Aerys by appointing himself regent. You're right that Tywin chose to deny him those options - and Robert rewarded him for it, and was publicly indifferent to the less bloody possibilities. 

Irrelevant to the post-Trident hypotheticals, but you don't know that Doran believes that, and none of us could prove that ourselves. We only know what we're told - perhaps, in a generation after ASoIaF, the denizens of Westeros would believe that Ned Stark was a venal traitor who betrayed his best friend's children to put an infidel on the throne. Pretty much the only thing we actually know with regards to Rhaegar and Lyanna is that they disappeared together. People have invented all sorts of explanations for this, but nobody actually knows - for all anyone knows, they could've been sucked into a portal to Narnia. As far as I know, nobody even tried to come to a diplomatic resolution that excluded Aerys, so nobody was given a chance to address any of their concerns or explain any of the events that got them to the Trident.

Robert's political problems are not Doran's concern when they're solved with the rape and murder of his sister and her children.

Except trying to inherit his crown.

How remarkably compassionate. I'm sure that makes Doran feel much better. And Renly's crown is built on the blood of his family, so no, I don't think that makes Doran happy.

I think he sent 10k because that was the minimum he could send. I don't think Doran was that fond of Aerys, either. As for getting revenge on his own: Renly has the logistical skills of Cersei's wheelhouse and Stannis is outnumbered and preoccupied with Renly's betrayal. I doubt a forced march up the boneway and through the Stormlands would face serious opposition, and I doubt either would catch up - or even try.

And Dorne was led by sterner folks that Doran, who wants to spare his people from needless suffering. Since that time, Dorne has become one with the other kingdoms, and may be reliant on their neighbors for trade.

So would I, but that doesn't mean Doran - and his entire country, judging by the Sand Snake plots - doesn't want revenge.

A- I am not a big fan of Robert myself but seriously I can't find any possible path he could take in the current timeline. Aerys gave him no options but to rebel. Rhaegar never even tried to negotiate anything with Robert which basically rule out a very unlikely but still possible alliance between Robert and Rhaegar to oust Aerys. Tywin removed the possibility of Robert marrying Rhaegar's daughter, Rhaella died before the rebels could take dragonstone and the dragon prince and princess fled before Stannis could storm the place. The only possible option was a marriage between either Danny and Joffrey or Danny and Robert a generation later. However by that time the feud was too big for either of these party to trust one another let alone get hitched

B- But we do know. Ned was there throughout the war and while haven't a certain bias towards the stag his tolerance to ignore Robert's many weaknesses had declined significantly throughout the years. Barristan was on the other side of the barricade, he nearly died for Rhaegar and similarly to Ned he's just too honourable not to say the truth. Don't take me wrong. I do believe that Rhaegar loved Lyanna and Lyanna escaped with him to avoid marry Robert. Its pretty evident even in Ned's words who avoid ever speaking ill of the crown prince. But that's quite insignificant on that regard. The Targs had handled the Martells so badly before and during the war. They were initially involved into Aerys power play with Tywin, then they were humiliated by both Aerys and Rhaegar and then threated. The crown prince even had the audicaty to take his lover to Dorne while leaving Elia alone to the mad king's mercy. I dare to say that they are the biggest victims of them all. If there was someone who should have been at the forefront in punishing the Targs then that someone was Doran

C- True and I insist that was Robert's biggest mistake. Even if Cersei turned up to be more loyal to Robert then Ned and a bigger asset to the crown then Olenna was to the Tyrells, he shouldn't have married her. Lannister crimes should have never been dumped upon the new administration. However Renly had nothing to do with it. He was actually the only one trying to get rid of Cersei and her children and if successful he would have brought the revenge the Martells sought for a generation. If baby Aegon is not guilty of his grand father crimes then baby Renly is not guilty of his brother's crime

D- And who should inherit the crown? Rhaegar and Aerys were dead and so were Rhaegar's children. Stannis tried to bring the remaining royal family back but they preferred exile then to return home. Taking that in account Robert was the closest in line of succession who remained standing.

E- No one expected Doran's compassion, what they expected him to do is to act rather then simply bitch about it. Renly was his best shot of getting his revenge. Instead he stayed home, counting Dorne sand and sending family members whose judgement was so clouded by revenge that they ended up butchered. I mean whom in the right state of mind would play around the Mountain in a 1 to 1 battle or even try and tame a dragon. That shows how desperate the people around Doran were to get their revenge on the Lannisters (not Baratheons but Lannisters, a Baratheon was close by and Arianne was ready to fight for her right to sit on the IT)

 

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15 minutes ago, devilish said:

A- I am not a big fan of Robert myself but seriously I can't find any possible path he could take in the current timeline. Aerys gave him no options but to rebel. Rhaegar never even tried to negotiate anything with Robert which basically rule out a very unlikely but still possible alliance between Robert and Rhaegar to oust Aerys. Tywin removed the possibility of Robert marrying Rhaegar's daughter, Rhaella died before the rebels could take dragonstone and the dragon prince and princess fled before Stannis could storm the place. The only possible option was a marriage between either Danny and Joffrey or Danny and Robert a generation later. However by that time the feud was too big for either of these party to trust one another let alone get hitched

I'm not blaming Robert for rebelling - I may think it's a shame that he won on the Trident, but I think it's more a shame that Rhaegar allowed himself to get so totally outmaneuvered by his father that he couldn't seek a diplomatic solution once the rebellion was in full swing. I don't hold Rhaegar blameless, and obviously Aerys didn't leave Ned, JA, and Robert any peaceful recourse.

My point is: none of that is Doran's problem. He's got a sister he loved who died horrifically at the hands of people Robert's now (literally) in bed with. I think sometimes it's easy to put blame on the Targaryens and Lannisters for everything in the Rebellion because then we don't have to face the moral ambiguity of the rebellion, or the fact that one sympathetic faction has a valid grievance against another.

15 minutes ago, devilish said:

B- But we do know. Ned was there throughout the war and while haven't a certain bias towards the stag his tolerance to ignore Robert's many weaknesses had declined significantly throughout the years. Barristan was on the other side of the barricade, he nearly died for Rhaegar and similarly to Ned he's just too honourable not to say the truth. Don't take me wrong. I do believe that Rhaegar loved Lyanna and Lyanna escaped with him to avoid marry Robert. Its pretty evident even in Ned's words who avoid ever speaking ill of the crown prince. But that's quite insignificant on that regard. The Targs had handled the Martells so badly before and during the war. They were initially involved into Aerys power play with Tywin, then they were humiliated by both Aerys and Rhaegar and then threated. The crown prince even had the audicaty to take his lover to Dorne while leaving Elia alone to the mad king's mercy. I dare to say that they are the biggest victims of them all. If there was someone who should have been at the forefront in punishing the Targs then that someone was Doran

No, we don't know that. Barristan wasn't there when Rhaegar "took" Lyanna, and neither was Ned. Personally, I think Rhaegar wanted to warn Lyanna that his father had figured out she was the Knight of the Laughing Tree and had sent men after her, and the two of them wound up fleeing, which explains both why they disappeared and why neither of them sent messages - either they couldn't, or they tried and their pursuers intercepted them.

Ned never once thinks "and then Lyanna and Rhaegar ran off and didn't tell anyone and now they're dead". We have the thoughts of the one man alive in the best position to know, and all he has is this intense sadness about the whole thing - almost as if there's a big misunderstanding, something that exonerated both of them and made their deaths nothing but tragic.

15 minutes ago, devilish said:

C- True and I insist that was Robert's biggest mistake. Even if Cersei turned up to be more loyal to Robert then Ned and a bigger asset to the crown then Olenna was to the Tyrells, he shouldn't have married her. Lannister crimes should have never been dumped upon the new administration. However Renly had nothing to do with it. He was actually the only one trying to get rid of Cersei and her children and if successful he would have brought the revenge the Martells sought for a generation. If baby Aegon is not guilty of his grand father crimes then baby Renly is not guilty of his brother's crime

Nobody here says Renly is guilty of anything (other than treason and usurpation of Stannis, but that's another story). But if I steal from you, and my brother, who was a child when I stole from you, tries to inherit what I took from you after I die, are you going to be happy? After all, he's blameless in my crime - but he still wants to profit from it.

15 minutes ago, devilish said:

D- And who should inherit the crown? Rhaegar and Aerys were dead and so were Rhaegar's children. Stannis tried to bring the remaining royal family back but they preferred exile then to return home. Taking that in account Robert was the closest in line of succession who remained standing.

Robert already crowned himself - if he hadn't, he might have been able to diplomatically arrange for the Targaryens to come home with him as a regent or something. Again, though, that isn't Doran's problem. He's got a dead family, Robert's got a crown, and Tywin's daughter is the queen Elia might have been.

15 minutes ago, devilish said:

E- No one expected Doran's compassion, what they expected him to do is to act rather then simply bitch about it. Renly was his best shot of getting his revenge. Instead he stayed home, counting Dorne sand and sending family members whose judgement was so clouded by revenge that they ended up butchered. I mean whom in the right state of mind would play around the Mountain in a 1 to 1 battle or even try and tame a dragon. That shows how desperate the people around Doran were to get their revenge on the Lannisters (not Baratheons but Lannisters, a Baratheon was close by and Arianne was ready to fight for her right to sit on the IT)

Arianne is A.) not very bright and B.) desperately scheming to keep her place in the Dornish succession - even after being warned that, "to crown her is to kill her". And I do agree Doran missed his shot, I just don't think Doran needed to join the Tyrell/Renly faction with a marriage alliance, since he clearly prefers Targaryens and Renly is an uncertain proposition.

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2 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I'm not blaming Robert for rebelling - I may think it's a shame that he won on the Trident, but I think it's more a shame that Rhaegar allowed himself to get so totally outmaneuvered by his father that he couldn't seek a diplomatic solution once the rebellion was in full swing. I don't hold Rhaegar blameless, and obviously Aerys didn't leave Ned, JA, and Robert any peaceful recourse.

My point is: none of that is Doran's problem. He's got a sister he loved who died horrifically at the hands of people Robert's now (literally) in bed with. I think sometimes it's easy to put blame on the Targaryens and Lannisters for everything in the Rebellion because then we don't have to face the moral ambiguity of the rebellion, or the fact that one sympathetic faction has a valid grievance against another.

No, we don't know that. Barristan wasn't there when Rhaegar "took" Lyanna, and neither was Ned. Personally, I think Rhaegar wanted to warn Lyanna that his father had figured out she was the Knight of the Laughing Tree and had sent men after her, and the two of them wound up fleeing, which explains both why they disappeared and why neither of them sent messages - either they couldn't, or they tried and their pursuers intercepted them.

Ned never once thinks "and then Lyanna and Rhaegar ran off and didn't tell anyone and now they're dead". We have the thoughts of the one man alive in the best position to know, and all he has is this intense sadness about the whole thing - almost as if there's a big misunderstanding, something that exonerated both of them and made their deaths nothing but tragic.

Nobody here says Renly is guilty of anything (other than treason and usurpation of Stannis, but that's another story). But if I steal from you, and my brother, who was a child when I stole from you, tries to inherit what I took from you after I die, are you going to be happy? After all, he's blameless in my crime - but he still wants to profit from it.

Robert already crowned himself - if he hadn't, he might have been able to diplomatically arrange for the Targaryens to come home with him as a regent or something. Again, though, that isn't Doran's problem. He's got a dead family, Robert's got a crown, and Tywin's daughter is the queen Elia might have been.

Arianne is A.) not very bright and B.) desperately scheming to keep her place in the Dornish succession - even after being warned that, "to crown her is to kill her". And I do agree Doran missed his shot, I just don't think Doran needed to join the Tyrell/Renly faction with a marriage alliance, since he clearly prefers Targaryens and Renly is an uncertain proposition.

A- Robert and not Renly. Just as Aegon is innocent for his grandfather/father crimes so is Renly from his brother's crimes. The young Baratheon had been working to push Cersei out since the beginning of GOT. He's Doran's best chance of getting justice. That's a chance far too big for Doran to snub 

B-C- Taken, kidnapped its has no bearing whatsoever. From Dorne's point of view he humiliated Elia in front of most Lords in Westeros. His actions heavily influenced the course of action, which saw Robert and Ned being sentenced to death and when shit hit fan his lover was kept safe in Dorne surrounded by the KG while his wife and children ended up in KL, first victim to Aerys madness and then Tywin's lust for power/revenge. I have my theories on R+L too but let stick to facts. Rhaegar humiliated Elia, he unintentionally caused the war and he failed to protect his wife and children. The Martells owe the Targs nothing and from their POV they might rot in hell worse then Robert did.

D- If we are in an alley, 2 big bullies comes in and they attacked us then I can't blame you for thinking for your own survival. I might be slightly pissed off if you end up in bed with the bully who have beaten me and spared him. There again, I cant blame your little brother who was a baby at home and had since spent his entire time trying to break this poisonous relationship between the bully and yourself. 

E- I think I answered to that

F- All Martells seem not very bright.

 

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That's not how Doran Martell operates. Jaime's hand being cut off, Tywin likely being poisoned by Oberyn, the rise of the Sparrow movement, the Second Sons bankrupting Tyrion, and eventually Cersei downfall can all arguably be attributed to Doran Martell, but he's not a man to use direct military force and sacrifice the lives of his people. Those men alone held off the Targaryens and their dragons as long as they can use the terrain of Dorne for defense, that's where they'll stay, though he'll possibly send them to the final battle against the Lannisters if there isn't much risk.

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Why should Prince Doran get Dorne involved? His objective is to see the Lannisters fall and possibly be the last great lord standing when the political board is reshuffled. As things stand, House Lannister stands on the verge of collapse without Dorne having fought a single battle. Certainly they are on top, but the Lannister armies have been mobilized and engaged since the beginning of the series and are virtually fought out.

The remnants of the North are engaged in a civil war along with the remnants of House Baratheon. The Stormlands are under occupation and assault by both the Reach and Golden Company. The Ironborn are virtually fought out having overextended themselves upon multiple fronts ranging from the North, to the Reach to Slaver's Bay. The Riverlands have been fought over repeatedly, looted and pillaged, with the Freys now overextending themselves. The Reach is starting to take losses for the first time in the novels between the Ironborn raids and the campaigns against Dragonstone and Storm's End.

The only two great houses that haven't committed themselves in some way are the Arryns and Martells. And it's looking as if Littlefinger is finally getting ready to roll the dice in the Vale, so that might not hold out. By staying directly out of the conflict and keeping his options open, Prince Doran stands an excellent chance of being able to play kingmaker and reaping the rewards of success with very little cost to his own. He's courting both Targaryen pretenders, and keeping his options open should the Lannisters triumph or even in the small chance that Stannis or Euron triumph. His worst case scenario is that his land didn't get involved in a very costly war. The best case, his family is calling the shots in Westeros. And the Lannisters certainly will never be the same again no matter what.

Truly the greatest threats to Dornish success in this war have been Oberyn and the Sand Snakes. The former wanting to directly confront the Lannisters and the latter seeking to cause havoc with the Myrcella plot.

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13 hours ago, velo-knight said:

I'm not sure what our disagreement is, then. We both agree he wants revenge on Tywin. We both agree the best revenge is seeing the Lannister throne taken away.

Our disagreement is this: I believe your plan is not as effective when it comes to Doran's actual intentions. I think your idea could accomplish his goal of revenge, but compromises Targaryen restoration. I believe the Prince is so deeply invested in the Targ restoration, that it could not be dismissed. I only agree with you in a hypothetical scenario where Doran doesn't care who ends up on the Throne (Until it's time for the Targaryens.)

So I won't argue that what your propose isn't possible. In the rest of the post (from which I quoted you,) you've outlined how it could be done. It's fairly well thought out, and it does have some advantages. The biggest of which is that it seizes a moment of  Lannister vulnerability, and by now means eliminates a path to Targaryen restoration. 

My point is that in makes that path considerably rockier. The plan comes with:

  • A need for additional political manuvering. 
  • A need to betray additional houses (all of which great and powerful.)
  • A 2nd campaign of warfare against people you would have sworn allegiance.

To summarize, I think holding off, letting the houses fight and weaken one another makes the most sense. It allows the Martell's to reserve their strength, make no unnecessary commitments, and retain an end goal which meets all the requirements. 

Undoing Tywin's plans by removing Joffery is great and all, but replacing him with a Targaryen renders all Tywins accomplishments as futile. For all he did, a Targ is back on the throne. 

 

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1 hour ago, velo-knight said:

Snip

Why bother, it is very clear that Devilish A. Doesn´t get or want to get our objection and B. Yet still wonder why Doran won´t act like he think he should (despite getting it explained over and over again). He has received an answer and are unable to see Dorans perspective. Thats his issue. 

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