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Would fAegons invasion work against a united Baratheon regime?


Oakhearts head

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If Aegon, Jon Connington and the Golden Company were to invade Westeros during a time of peace under the regime of a popular Baratheon king (likely either Robert or Renly), would the Targaryen name ultimately mean all that much? Could we expect houses that have been notoriously loyal to the Targaryen's over their near three centuries in power (namely House Tyrell, House Martell and several noble houses in the Riverlands) to join the Golden Company?

Assume Daenerys remained in Slavers Bay instead of backing Aegon.

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I don't think so. Robert would have 5 of the 7 Kingdoms - Stormlands, the North, Vale, Riverlands and Westerlands; and Crownlands obviously. At most Aegon has Reach and Dorne, in addition to the Golden Company. The Greyjoys wouldn't help anyone if this is after Greyjoy's Rebellion. 

 

So 5 kingdoms vs 2 Kingdoms and an, admittedly well trained, mercenary band. I can't see the invasion going well for Aegon. I mean loyalists probably exist in every kingdom, but they weren't enough to stop Robert's Rebellion from succeeding, so how will they stop the former rebel forces destroying Aegon's company? Especially since Aegon would have equal/less forces than the Mad King had at his disposal and the rebels would have just as many as they did in Robert's Rebellion. Probably more as House Lannister would now be fully pledged to Robert's cause unlike in his rebellion

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Not really. Jon Connington would get decimated immediately. Just landing in the Stormlands and trying to take over Robert's own backyard would be nearly impossible for them. Neither Tyrell or Martell would join them either. The only people who MAY join them are minor stooge houses like Peake or Darry, and even those are highly unlikely. 

Hell, their invasion right now as things are is still pretty risky. Their saving grace is actually Euron; if it wasn't for him I wouldn't be so sure about Aegon getting very far. 

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1 hour ago, Renly's Banana said:

Not really. Jon Connington would get decimated immediately. Just landing in the Stormlands and trying to take over Robert's own backyard would be nearly impossible for them. Neither Tyrell or Martell would join them either. The only people who MAY join them are minor stooge houses like Peake or Darry, and even those are highly unlikely. 

Hell, their invasion right now as things are is still pretty risky. Their saving grace is actually Euron; if it wasn't for him I wouldn't be so sure about Aegon getting very far. 

That assumes he'd land in the SL. What does he say about that in ADwD:

“Only a few years ago, he would never have dared attempt a landing on Cape Wrath; the storm lords were too fiercely loyal to House Baratheon and to King Robert. But with both Robert and his brother Renly slain, everything was changed. ”

He'd almost certainly land in Dorne, but he'd have the same issues crossing that Dany would have. Moving that many men and ships is fucking hard and Stannis and the Royal Fleet are on the narrow sea. Unless they get the Redwynes to run interference, they have no chance at opposing it at sea.

 

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2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

That assumes he'd land in the SL. What does he say about that in ADwD:

“Only a few years ago, he would never have dared attempt a landing on Cape Wrath; the storm lords were too fiercely loyal to House Baratheon and to King Robert. But with both Robert and his brother Renly slain, everything was changed. ”

He'd almost certainly land in Dorne, but he'd have the same issues crossing that Dany would have. Moving that many men and ships is fucking hard and Stannis and the Royal Fleet are on the narrow sea. Unless they get the Redwynes to run interference, they have no chance at opposing it at sea.

 

I would almost prefer landing in the Stormlands and taking my chances there than Dorne. Hell, even Oldtown is preferable. Landing your whole force in Dorne is idiotic. You'd be split off from the rest of the kingdom and very far away from any significant stronghold. What's he gonna do? Take over Sunspear? Good luck defending that place. Then he'd have to cross the entire desert. With elephants. By the time he makes it to the Prince's Pass (after the Dornish are done thoroughly bleeding him along the way), he'll be in a choke hold and have everybody else on him already.

Landing in the Vale would perhaps be slightly better, but even if he took some strongholds there and started marching, he'd have to funnel everyone through the Mountain Pass. He's screwed every which way he tries. Just go home, JonCon. It's ogre. 

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4 hours ago, Oakhearts head said:

If Aegon, Jon Connington and the Golden Company were to invade Westeros during a time of peace under the regime of a popular Baratheon king (likely either Robert or Renly), would the Targaryen name ultimately mean all that much? Could we expect houses that have been notoriously loyal to the Targaryen's over their near three centuries in power (namely House Tyrell, House Martell and several noble houses in the Riverlands) to join the Golden Company?

Assume Daenerys remained in Slavers Bay instead of backing Aegon.

I don't think so.  Ten thousand is simply not enough.  His principal ally, the Martells, are too risk averse to commit without assurances of winning.  Doran is too cautious.  Then there is the sticky point of having to prove his identity.  Blonde hair and blue eyes aren't exclusive to the Targaryens.  He can't really prove his identity. 

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I think the whole point of the Aegon's arc is the disruption that varys has caused on Westeros. Analysing one without the other is just useless. Their tactics was to wait until their forces could beat the shit out the rest of westeros easily. Or at least having consecutive victories and assembling aliances with rebels.

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3 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

I would almost prefer landing in the Stormlands and taking my chances there than Dorne. Hell, even Oldtown is preferable. Landing your whole force in Dorne is idiotic. You'd be split off from the rest of the kingdom and very far away from any significant stronghold. What's he gonna do? Take over Sunspear? Good luck defending that place. Then he'd have to cross the entire desert. With elephants. By the time he makes it to the Prince's Pass (after the Dornish are done thoroughly bleeding him along the way), he'll be in a choke hold and have everybody else on him already.

Landing in the Vale would perhaps be slightly better, but even if he took some strongholds there and started marching, he'd have to funnel everyone through the Mountain Pass. He's screwed every which way he tries. Just go home, JonCon. It's ogre. 

If Dany is staying in Westeros, landing in Dorne is going to be a better option than landing in the definitely hostile SL. 

Essentially I am relying on JonCon to have negotiated a landing wherever he wants to land

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8 hours ago, SirLoras The gay said:

I think the whole point of the Aegon's arc is the disruption that varys has caused on Westeros. Analysing one without the other is just useless. Their tactics was to wait until their forces could beat the shit out the rest of westeros easily. Or at least having consecutive victories and assembling aliances with rebels.

Indeed, Varys and Illyrio would have never allowed an invasion at the height of Robert's reign. However at the start of the series is clear that Varys hasn't caused any real disruption at all. It is explicitly stated that it was not yet time. In fact, Littlefinger caused much greater disruption than Varys. What was the original plan to undermine Robert's reign, it's not clear, but he expected to have better control of the situation, including the twincest reveal.

 

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12 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

That assumes he'd land in the SL. What does he say about that in ADwD:

“Only a few years ago, he would never have dared attempt a landing on Cape Wrath; the storm lords were too fiercely loyal to House Baratheon and to King Robert. But with both Robert and his brother Renly slain, everything was changed. ”

He'd almost certainly land in Dorne, but he'd have the same issues crossing that Dany would have. Moving that many men and ships is fucking hard and Stannis and the Royal Fleet are on the narrow sea. Unless they get the Redwynes to run interference, they have no chance at opposing it at sea.

 

Dorne would turn against Faegon and Connington's head would be sent to KL on a pike. However, Aegon and the GC would be able to flee back to Essos.

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5 hours ago, devilish said:

Dorne would turn against Faegon and Connington's head would be sent to KL on a pike. However, Aegon and the GC would be able to flee back to Essos.

Why? Why would they turn against Faegon? Did they magically discover he's fake or something?

As to JonCon, he was banished by Aerys, not Robert. He's also suspected dead, so I fail to see why Doran, who's already planning on supporting the overthrow ofRobert anyway, would want either of the mdead.

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5 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Why? Why would they turn against Faegon? Did they magically discover he's fake or something?

As to JonCon, he was banished by Aerys, not Robert. He's also suspected dead, so I fail to see why Doran, who's already planning on supporting the overthrow ofRobert anyway, would want either of the mdead.

a- That is why he'll manage to escape with most of the GC. Doran won't commit a potential kinslaying if he can help it.

b- 10k will be wiped away like sand by Robert and the other 6 kingdoms and Doran isn't the type to risk his neck in a losing battle.

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1 minute ago, devilish said:

a- That is why he'll manage to escape with most of the GC. Doran won't commit a potential kinslaying if he can help it.

b- 10k will be wiped away like sand by Robert and the other 6 kingdoms and Doran isn't the type to risk his neck in a losing battle.

Once again, landing in Dorne is predicated on reaching out to Doran beforehand.

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5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Indeed, Varys and Illyrio would have never allowed an invasion at the height of Robert's reign. However at the start of the series is clear that Varys hasn't caused any real disruption at all. It is explicitly stated that it was not yet time. In fact, Littlefinger caused much greater disruption than Varys. What was the original plan to undermine Robert's reign, it's not clear, but he expected to have better control of the situation, including the twincest reveal.

 

Killing Kevan is pretty disruptive.

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39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yeah, but the realm was already in very poor shape. It wasn't at the time Robert was king.

I agree with you. And agree with some people here as well. They'd be steamrolled if they didn't wait for the kingdom to be at this chaotic state that's today.

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Varys didn't need to disrupt the realm, because he realized Littlefinger would for him. As Littlefinger has hinted to being aware of Varys' plans, and hasn't moved to eliminate him (and Varys has taken very little action against Littlefinger, as well) it stands to reason that they are, well, "frenemies": opponents with mutual interests in the short term.

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