French politics: houlala!

[Alarich II]

5 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

I don't see Mélenchon picking a lot of seats in the legislative elections. The FN should win some, but not too many. The Conservatives (Les Républicains) should make a decent come-back, and perhaps the Socialists as well. I find it hard to believe that Macron's movement can win a majority by themselves. I would expect the Parliament to be split between five major factions, but with several coalitions being possible. So 3 is likely, but where I disagree with you is that the final result will depend on i) the economic condition of the country in 5 years and ii) how the media will treat Macron in the coming years.

I agree that 3 seems like the most likely outcome. The media treatment seems to be (from my selective reading) rather benevolent but that may Change.

The important issue in 5 years IMO is not even the economic condition per se, but rather the question wether his reforms will drive down the unemployment figures substantially, and especially youth unemployment. We are currently talking about nearly 1 in 4 young people being unemployed and giving back a perspective to those will be the most important and also most difficult task ahead.

The problem is: youth unemployment just about doubles general unemployment, so in direct comparison (young/old) it probably looks even worse. Which means that getting into the labour market is much more difficult than keeping a job, once you get one. So a booming economy may not be enough to really solve this problem.

[Hello World]

4 hours ago, maarsen said:

Wow! First time I came across a raving sock puppet conspiracy theorist with no pretense of having actual facts. Keep it up. I need a laugh on occasion.

Here is another thing to laugh at, courtesy of r/conspiracy, my favorite subreddit,

At least they have a sense of humor - here's a screenshot from Macron's victory speech.

[Louvre] pyramid is comprised of 666 glass triangles and if you look above his head it's the red dragon eyes that is censored on google; signs point to end times are near at hand.

Macron officially wins with 66.06% of the vote. What the fuck!? Antichrist anyone?

[all swedes are racist]

Lol

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

The crazy is strong with the conspiracy theorists.

[all swedes are racist]

woof

https://fr.news.yahoo.com/macron-président-sondage-ipsos-souligne-fragilités-183000051.html

[A Horse Named Stranger]

In other news, the Brexit campaign (through their official twatter account) also send a congratulatory message and wished Macron the best of luck.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/861307433829924866/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=about%3Asrcdoc

At least I assume, that's what they wanted to say.

Anyway, looks like Valodya broke his cursed monkey pawn after wishing for Brexit and Trump, or he is afraid what would happen after his third and final wish.

[Hereward]

Just to note, that's UKIP, not the official (Conservative-led) Leave campaign.

[Rippounet]

Wow, Macron lost no time rubbing it in...

 

 

[Toth]

Just stumbled about an article quoting the current AfD main candidate calling the Front Nationale 'ultrasocialistic' with a wording that excluded the national part and called it too far left to her liking.

What?

Just... what?

If that is any indicator for where on the political spectrum those suckers are, they don't even deserve to be ridiculed, they deserve to be totally ignored.

[Sullen]

20 minutes ago, Toth said:

Just stumbled about an article quoting the current AfD main candidate calling the Front Nationale 'ultrasocialistic' with a wording that excluded the national part and called it too far left to her liking.

What?

Just... what?

If that is any indicator for where on the political spectrum those suckers are, they don't even deserve to be ridiculed, they deserve to be totally ignored.

Philippot's (the party's VP) vision of  what the FN should be is genuinely left-wing in terms of economic and social policy. A lot of FN voters think he's moving the party away from the right and see it as a betrayal of the party's ideology.

That being said, there is no ideological consistency in the FN. Their Southern backers are even further to the right than the Republicains... The party itself is only held together by xenophobia and nationalist sentiment, hence why they probably will go through a severe existential crisis soon, especially with the alliance with NDA, which is seen as an extreme vote deterrent for the FN's poorer, more working class Northern electorate.

[Darryk]

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Wow, Macron lost no time rubbing it in...

 

 

I like this guy.

[Toth]

13 hours ago, Sullen said:

Philippot's (the party's VP) vision of  what the FN should be is genuinely left-wing in terms of economic and social policy. A lot of FN voters think he's moving the party away from the right and see it as a betrayal of the party's ideology.

That being said, there is no ideological consistency in the FN. Their Southern backers are even further to the right than the Republicains... The party itself is only held together by xenophobia and nationalist sentiment, hence why they probably will go through a severe existential crisis soon, especially with the alliance with NDA, which is seen as an extreme vote deterrent for the FN's poorer, more working class Northern electorate.

Okay, thanks. That makes a lot of sense now if I regard that statement in regards to their economic policy only. Damn, I should have known better than to be surprised by this, but it shows just how much I am on the wrong lane right now... -.-

Given AfD's history as a protest party out of FDP survivors who fled the sinking ship after it was sunk during the last elections, they still remain extreme neoliberal in their economic view. Which is kinda baffling why a German neoliberal would be against EU, but I guess that's part of the problem of why they keep tearing themselves apart before the election. That and the question of with how much Nazi they can allow themselves to get away with...

[denstorebog]

Just read that Le Pen the Younger (Marion Maréchal, who seems very popular with the crazies) is breaking off from FN, allegedly to focus on her family, which as we all know is French for "planning to start my own party that will take ultra-nationalism TO THE MAX". At least that's my impression. What do our resident Frenchpeople say? Is there a chance that we could see FN splintering, making it harder for nationalist parties to survive the first round in future elections?

[Rippounet]

37 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

Just read that Le Pen the Younger (Marion Maréchal, who seems very popular with the crazies) is breaking off from FN, allegedly to focus on her family, which as we all know is French for "planning to start my own party that will take ultra-nationalism TO THE MAX". At least that's my impression. What do our resident Frenchpeople say? Is there a chance that we could see FN splintering, making it harder for nationalist parties to survive the first round in future elections?

From what I've read, it's unlikely MMLP wants to start her own party. It seems she hopes that her aunt fails so badly in the next elections that she will have to give up the leadership of the FN eventually, leaving an opening to replace her. It might work too.

It would be great if there was a split, but after the didastrous one in 1998 I don't think that will happen again. They will have learned the lesson. But if they haven't, I'll be the first to cheer.

[Rippounet]

More on the MMLP front. Journalist Michel Henry does believe she might want to create her own movement to run independently of the FN in the future, like Macron just did. Not sure I buy it (I still think she's waiting for her aunt to fail), but I have to say the theory is credible:
http://www.telerama.fr/monde/si-marion-marechal-le-pen-fait-un-pas-de-cote-c-est-qu-elle-a-de-grandes-ambitions,157919.php#xtor=

Also, a very interesting analysis about the correlation between immigration and xenophobia, or whether people who vote for the National Front actually live in areas that experience massive immigration. It's been believed for a while that the most xenophobic people generally don't know many immigrants themselves (especially in rural areas). This analysis says there is actually no correlation either way (though there are indeed many examples of rural areas with virtually no immigration voting massively for the National Front):
http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/05/10/presidentielle-le-vote-fn-est-il-concentre-dans-des-zones-avec-peu-d-immigres_5125715_4355770.html

On the other hand, Geograph Hervé Le Bras has shown that there is a correlation between poor areas (often formerly industrial areas) that experience a number of serious social issues  (unemployment, lack of higher education, lack of access to basic social services such as hospitals... etc) and the NF vote.
http://www.liberation.fr/debats/2015/12/09/herve-le-bras-le-vote-frontiste-se-propage-comme-des-epidemies-de-grippe_1419573

[Sullen]

On 5/10/2017 at 6:00 PM, denstorebog said:

Just read that Le Pen the Younger (Marion Maréchal, who seems very popular with the crazies) is breaking off from FN, allegedly to focus on her family, which as we all know is French for "planning to start my own party that will take ultra-nationalism TO THE MAX". At least that's my impression. What do our resident Frenchpeople say? Is there a chance that we could see FN splintering, making it harder for nationalist parties to survive the first round in future elections?

As I stated earlier, the FN splitting in the following years is definitively a possibility. There's no ideological cohesion in their party beyond general nationalism and insular (read: xenophobic) sentiments. Northern (and mostly newer) electorate is working class and, economically, to the Left, while their traditional Southern base is really, really to the right as far as economic policies go.

Marechal-Le Pen, representative of the party's traditional right-wing base, just left, and now Philippot, the party's VP who's seemingly trying to turn the party into a nationalist authoritarian, but left-wing party, just threatened to walk out if his policies (most specifically, the withdrawal from the Euro) are dropped. Losing both Florian and Marion means the FN would be considerably weakened, as both of them represented what its future could potentially be. Seems like its future seems to be heading towards fragmentation.

-

Also, Macron really dropped the ball with Bayrou. He's lucky that the Left is as divided as it is, because losing the support of the MoDem could have otherwise been catastrophic for his during the legislatives.

EDIT: Also, quick correction, MMLP didn't really leave because she thought the FN wasn't nationalistic enough, she thought the party was going too far to the Left to try to broaden their electorate. There's an important distinction to be made there.

[Rippounet]

With Macron nominating a moderate right-wing prime minister, he's trying to kill two birds (the Conservative Party ("Les Républicains") and the Socialist Party) with one stone.
It's not just shooting for a coalition with the moderate conservatives and the centrist socialists: if a coalition emerges he'll tear the two traditional parties apart. The Socialist Party is already dying of course, but he may succeed in destroying the conservatives as well.

I'm not a Macron fan, but his political strategies so far have been really impressive.
Of course, it helps that this has been the plan for a few years now. But still.

[Rippounet]

A good update on the current state of French politics, surprisingly anti-neo-liberal too:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/opinion/emmanuel-macron-popularity.html?_r=0

 

Quote

 

Mr. Macron’s two big policy goals are fixing the economy and fixing Europe. He has gone so far as to describe his economic policies as a “Copernican revolution,” but he is merely pushing France a little farther down the road of labor market deregulation and fiscal austerity, a path well trodden by other countries.

The new president says he is determined to make France a “start-up nation,” borrowing the vapid parlance of Silicon Valley. This has won him the support of venture capitalists and tech billionaires but has yet to convince the wider French public. Silicon Valley’s libertarian social contract, with its cavalier attitude toward inequality, sits uneasily with a population raised on France’s postwar social-democratic traditions.

His main goal is to reduce France’s unemployment rate, which at around 10 percent remains stubbornly high. He hopes to do this by reforming the labor code. One of the new measures is a cap on the damages that courts can award workers claiming wrongful dismissal, a move intended to give employers more confidence in hiring. Another would allow companies with fewer than 50 employees to negotiate contracts without having to go through trade unions. The French far left has called this a “social coup d’état,” but the president has been careful not to give in entirely to the business lobby.

What really matters is the endpoint. Any sustained fall in unemployment in France would be welcome, but the experiences of other countries suggest it comes at the cost of new kinds of inequality. In Germany, labor market reforms have led to a proliferation of “mini-jobs,” part-time work that is lightly regulated and has taken the place of full-time jobs in some sectors. In Britain’s highly deregulated labor market, record employment levels exist alongside low productivity, stagnating wages and a proliferation of short-term contracts. Is this the future France wants?

 

And no, there are many signs that most people in France don't want the "standard" neo-liberal reforms. Macron was elected by the French to defeat Le Pen ; the elite got him elected to pursue reforms that only a minority is comfortable with. But the neo-liberal agenda is being shoved down people's throats as usual. The result will be strikes - lots and lots of strikes - over the next five years, and a National Front that will be in a perfect position to finally win something in the next major elections.

[Which Tyler]

Strikes? In France? Surely you jest!

[Sullen]

On 9/8/2017 at 2:49 PM, Rippounet said:

And no, there are many signs that most people in France don't want the "standard" neo-liberal reforms. Macron was elected by the French to defeat Le Pen ; the elite got him elected to pursue reforms that only a minority is comfortable with. But the neo-liberal agenda is being shoved down people's throats as usual. The result will be strikes - lots and lots of strikes - over the next five years, and a National Front that will be in a perfect position to finally win something in the next major elections.

I'm not sure the FN is the one that'll most profit from Macron's unpopularity.

If anything, Melenchon's strong anti-Macron stance has set him as the default opposition in the eyes of most, even the right, and he's pretty much leading the fight against the Work Law Reform. If the toxicity of Hollande lingers and keeps the Socialistes down for another 5 years, I wouldn't be too surprised to see LFI potentially win the next elections.