The Others: Why now?

[Therae]

1 hour ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

<snip>

I think that's pretty much on the nose.

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

On ‎24‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 5:41 PM, devilish said:

We also know that if you burnTarg'a blood, near dragon eggs then dragons might hatch.

Excuse me, but this is not the case.
Dany wasn't burnt, her child was already dead and there was blood magic involved with the burning of the Maegi.

Also, if is was the case that burning Targs (or Targs blood) would cause nearby eggs to hatch, then why didn't any eggs hatch at Summerhall, where a lot of Targs were, and even got burned.
Or, when a Targ dies, his body is burnt, never has an egg hatched when a Targ body was burnt.

Sorry, but this statement is simply not true.

[devilish]

26 minutes ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

Excuse me, but this is not the case.
Dany wasn't burnt, her child was already dead and there was blood magic involved with the burning of the Maegi.

Also, if is was the case that burning Targs (or Targs blood) would cause nearby eggs to hatch, then why didn't any eggs hatch at Summerhall, where a lot of Targs were, and even got burned.
Or, when a Targ dies, his body is burnt, never has an egg hatched when a Targ body was burnt.

Sorry, but this statement is simply not true.

a- Danny walked in the pyre and she proved fire proof. 
b- I guess the answer to the mystery is the three headed dragon. In Summerhall both King and his heir burned. Later on Danny burned too, 3 sacrifices, 3 dragons. 

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

1 minute ago, devilish said:

a- Danny walked in the pyre and she proved fire proof. 
b- I guess the answer to the mystery is the three headed dragon. In Summerhall both King and his heir burned. Later on Danny burned too, 3 sacrifices, 3 dragons. 

Almost 50 years apart?
Also, Dany didn't burn, as you stated in point A, she proved fire proof (for whatever reason). Her son was burnt, but he was already dead (and a monstrosity), but all dead Targs were burnt, so we can't count him in.

I'm sorry, but there is no proof for the burning of Targaryen blood to be required to hatch dragon eggs. As someone else has already stated, in the past plenty of dragon eggs hatched without human (or Targaryen) intervention.

[devilish]

21 minutes ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

Almost 50 years apart?
Also, Dany didn't burn, as you stated in point A, she proved fire proof (for whatever reason). Her son was burnt, but he was already dead (and a monstrosity), but all dead Targs were burnt, so we can't count him in.

I'm sorry, but there is no proof for the burning of Targaryen blood to be required to hatch dragon eggs. As someone else has already stated, in the past plenty of dragon eggs hatched without human (or Targaryen) intervention.

There's proof that there's a link between dragons and Targs, that king's blood is powerful, that blood magic is achieved through burning and that the Stark are the ice equivalent to the Targs

[Damon_Tor]

1 hour ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

her child was already dead

You seem very sure of that.

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

1 hour ago, Damon_Tor said:

You seem very sure of that.

Yes I am, and I have read the thread in your signature and am still very sure he is dead. Also, she herself has dreamt that Rhaego will be stillborn (see quote below). Also, never ever in the other books has there been any reference to Rhaego, or a copper skinned, silver-gold hared, violet-colored, almond shaped eyed boy. His death was foreshadowed, if he survived, no mentions were made. It just does not make sense for him to live.

Quote

She could feel the heat inside her, a terrible burning in her womd. her son was tall and proud, with Drogo's copper skin and her own silver-gold hair, violet eyes shaped like almonds. And he smiled for her and began to lift his hand toward hers, bit when he opened his mouth the fire poured out. She saw his heart burning through his chest, and in an instant he was gone, consumed like a moth by a candle, turned to ash. She wept for her child, the promise of a sweet mouth on her breast, but her tears turned to steam as they touched her skin.

"... want to wake the dragon..."

A game of thrones - Daenerys IX

[Brother Seamus]

On ‎3‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 11:40 AM, Holley 4 Barrel said:

I don't think the WW care about Rickard's execution.  Besides, why would they continue to advance even after Robert had taken the throne?  It doesn't make sense.  The Others were active at the start of AGOT while Robert's ass had been warming the throne for 15 years or more and the Starks had a secure hold on Winterfell. 

I'm choosing the Op's #6.  The climate shift.  They are creatures of the cold and follow the cold.  The shift in climate to a prolonged Ice Age will allow them to go to lands that were formerly too warm for them, too inhospitable, for them in the past.

 

I think this confuses cause and effect. I think the cold is coming because the others are coming, not the other way around. I've just gone through the first page of posts but no one has mentioned the overall re-awakening of magic all over the world-the dragons, the others, the increased potency and ease of production of wildfire, melisandre's increased powers (she remarks on this), the revival from death of dondarrion and catelyn (and soon Jon Snow, I'll wager), probably a few things I can't remember (the fire magicians in Qarth may be another one).

I think the return of the others and the overall revival of magic and the supernatural is either some grand cycle (like an ice-age level climate cycle, but including magic) or the result of the breach of some kind of pact, presumably by, or at least involving, the Starks, and probably involving human sacrifice.

I'd never thought of it before but I like the proposition that the Starks had secretly continued blood sacrifice to the weirwoods to keep the pact, but  the simultaneous death of Rickard and Brandon meant the secret wasn't passed to Ned and the tradition stopped, and the magical universe has been gradually wobbling out of equilibrium ever since, eventually resulting in the various magical and supernatural manifestations we see in the books.

The union of ice and fire in Jon Snow (assuming r + l = j, which I do) may also be the catalyst.

 

[King Behind The Wall]

On 3/23/2017 at 5:04 AM, 300 H&H Mag said:

Birth of Jon Snow.  This is possible, but we need to further explore why his birth would have meaning to the Others if we are to assume this is the cause.  It is clear the Others are not on a mission of peace so it is safe to assume they're mad about something.  The reaction is delayed by 14 years since the birth of Jon.  Perhaps, if you believe R+L=J, the mixing of fire and ice is offensive to the Others.  Some fans prematurely assume that a hybrid of ice and fire is a good thing.  It may not be.  The Others are coming for him.

 

I think this is possible. But there are few things against this theory. Not sure if Others are aware of Jon's existence. At best, they might be vaguely aware of such a person with fire and ice in his parentage. Jon was beyond the Wall for an extended period of time. If Others are aware of his whereabouts, they could have crushed him like a bug. Once the Wall comes down, and it will, Others will cause a widespread genocide in Westeros. They will not even keep a track of who died and who didn't. So not a good plan to kill one person they don't even know by name.

Furthermore Jon is almost certainly dead at the end of ADWD, at least temporarily. That is not going to change whatever plans Others have for Westeros.

 

On 3/23/2017 at 5:04 AM, 300 H&H Mag said:

There must always be a Stark in Winterfell.  The Starks perform a ritual that either appeases the Others or repels them.  This could relate to #3.  But Ned was not the kind of man who would kill people for sacrifice.  We know then that human sacrifice had not been practiced by the Starks for at least as long as the time Lord Rickard has been dead and maybe even long before then. The timing is wrong unless the Others are just slow to react.  I will not rule this out, yet.  After all, Rickard expected to live longer and he had Brandon backing him up.  He could have shared the secret ritual with Brandon but both got executed and had not the chance to pass the information to Ned.

Others were already active and killing in large numbers beyond the Wall even when there were plenty of Starks in Winterfell at the start of AGOT. Starks have been at war before and surrendered to Targs during Aegon's Conquest where they would have been eliminated if they had not bent the knee. If Robert's Rebellion had failed, fate of House Stark is an open ended question. Others were not active at that time, so it is not like they are watching over the Starks all this time. On the contrary, Others have become active when the House Stark was in a relatively stable and prosperous state during Robert's reign.

[Damon_Tor]

4 hours ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

Also, she herself has dreamt that Rhaego will be stillborn (see quote below).

That's odd, my wife had terrible nightmares about stillbirth and yet somehow we had a healthy child anyway. It's almost like sometimes dreams are dreams. We have no reason to believe that Dany has any ability to see the future.

4 hours ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

Also, never ever in the other books has there been any reference to Rhaego, or a copper skinned, silver-gold hared, violet-colored, almond shaped eyed boy.

Well sure, that would be a dead giveaway, now wouldn't it? I'll further note that we have no reason to believe that Rhaego would have the Targaryen features apart from Dany's dream (and as noted, she isn't a prophet). Like blond hair in our world, it's recessive, and and there are plenty of examples of Targ/Non-Targ pairings having mundane hair color only for the trait to pop up again the next generation. Since Drogo didn't have any special Valyrian ancestry to our knowledge, it's not reasonable to assume he would have blonde hair.

[Lollygag]

It’s been so long since the Long Night and Westeros is such a chaotic place, that I have trouble believing that any single pact or agreement survived unbroken during that length of time. It’s not exactly like Westeros was a peaceful place before the books started. If there were pacts, or any thing else which kept the Others at bay, I agree with those who suspect that there were several. One or two may have been broken, but as long as others were in place, it kept the Others/Ice from getting a foothold. That “There must always be a Stark in Winterfell” certainly seems to be one of these. Doors which take several keys to open is a fairly common idea in the fantasy genre. So enough keys/pacts/whatever have now been broken, that the situation is now imperative.

Bran the Builder built 2 keys, the Wall and Winterfell. He also built Storm’s End and the HighTower at OldTown. These may be 2 more keys, and they will certain figure into the story in a big way at a future point.

Mini Ice Ages and Mini warming spells take a very long time to develop, so I suspect that things have gradually been swinging the Others’ way for a very long time, but it’s only just recently that they’ve been strong enough to take action. Guessing that the Doom could have played a major role in initiating the turn from fire (life) to ice (death). Slowly over time, fire fades and ice strengthens. Dragons gradually weaken until they are no more. The Targs become desperate to birth new dragons and Summerhall happens. Rhaegar is driven by a prophesy over Fire and Ice. There’s this passage about Bloodraven which Ckram cited:

20 hours ago, Ckram said:

@300 H&H Mag

10. The decay of greensight: Bloodraven, known by the CoTF as the last greenseer, is doing all he can to keep the others away (turning trees into warriors, sending beasts to fight, conjuring hammer-of-the-waters-like spells) but "there's too much to watch" and he can't help his own body from going into the trees. He greensees potential in a future Bran Stark and watchs him since he was born and visits his very first dream in order to summon him as soon as possible. However, now that "little strength remains in" Bloodraven's flesh, the Others grow stronger, but Bran still is a little boy. To make it worse, Bran becomes cripple due to a fall. Bloodraven fears for the worst and so contact Bran and the Reeds. Unfortunately, when Bran finally arrives at the cave "the hour is late". Bloodraven's watch is ending.

• Bran III, aDwD

"Most of him has gone into the tree," explained the singer Meera called Leaf. "He has lived beyond his mortal span, and yet he lingers. For us, for you, for the realms of men. Only a little strength remains in his flesh. He has a thousand eyes and one, but there is much to watch. One day you will know."

The Targs have figured out that the swing from fire to ice has progressed enough that it has become a critical issue because the change impacted their dragons in such an obvious way. Maybe magic didn’t come back? Maybe it was just temporarily balanced enough that it cancelled each other out and  And no doubt the FM and the Citadel may factor in here somewhere. Perhaps someone worked to re-strengthen fire and succeeded to some degree.

 

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

14 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

Well sure, that would be a dead giveaway, now wouldn't it? I'll further note that we have no reason to believe that Rhaego would have the Targaryen features apart from Dany's dream (and as noted, she isn't a prophet). Like blond hair in our world, it's recessive, and and there are plenty of examples of Targ/Non-Targ pairings having mundane hair color only for the trait to pop up again the next generation. Since Drogo didn't have any special Valyrian ancestry to our knowledge, it's not reasonable to assume he would have blonde hair.

Of course, we can always just imagine stuff, completely unsupported by the actual text. There have been absolutely no references to a boy about 2-3 years old with the Lazareen, or any other population in Essos. If you have serious proof that he is alive, convince me. But do not try to disprove my arguments without showing serious arguments.

Show me parts of the text that hint to Rhaego still being alive that are not in the chapter of his birth. GRRM always uses a method of 3. 1 very subtle hint, 1 less subtle hint, and boom in your face.
I haven't even seen the very subtle hint, have you?

[Damon_Tor]

18 minutes ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

If you have serious proof that he is alive, convince me. But do not try to disprove my arguments without showing serious arguments.

I look at it from the other direction: there's no evidence that he's dead. Literally zero reliable characters saw the body, and it was disposed of before anybody could see it. Everyone seems to take MMD at her word.

 

24 minutes ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

GRRM always uses a method of 3. 1 very subtle hint, 1 less subtle hint, and boom in your face.

I'm not sure I can agree to this premise. Was there any hint that baby Aegon had survived (or that there was an impostor in training) until he was introduced? Except for the HotU prophecy (which only points to fAegon in retrospect like all good prophecies) there was zero reason to suspect his existence.

I expect the situation will be similar, where once we know that happened to Rhaego we can look back as go "so THAT'S why that ship was in those places" or "so THAT'S what MMD meant when she said that." but until then we can only speculate.

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

2 minutes ago, Damon_Tor said:

Was there any hint that baby Aegon had survived (or that there was an impostor in training) until he was introduced?

Actually, the absence of any hints that Aegon survived, is the proof that he is an imposter.
About everybody believing MMD, has she lied about anything else? She said she could make sure Drogo would live, but not in what state.
MMD has not lied about anything, why should she lie about this?

Also, sending Rhaego away with any Dothraki that fled after Drogo's death makes no sense at all, since Rhaego would be the STMTW. HE would be a direct competitor for the new Khal. Any Khal would have a possible STMTW killed, to make sure he will remain Khal.

Again, show me text that hints that Rhaego is alive. If you fail to do so, your theory is just a piece of tinfoil, folded into a nice hat. You can look at it from any direction you want, but there is no proof he is alive. Only text showing he is dead, accompanied by Dany's dream that Rhaego would burst into flames (the dream is hint no 1 and foreshadowing, MMD saying he is dead is 2).

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 3/23/2017 at 0:04 AM, 300 H&H Mag said:

<snip

My own theory: they come on a cycle and it's just time again. Magic in the storyworld seems to be cyclical and whatever else the Others are, they are creatures of magic.

The last Long Night was 8,000 years ago, and it's possible that there was another such experience 8,000 years before that (of which we have no actual record, but vague bits and pieces accidentally mixed in with the history and legends of the most recent Long Night).

As to why 8,000 years in particular I don't know. It could be less than that since the history is fuzzy. They could come every 7,000 years, but there does appear to be a cycle. 

[John Suburbs]

I read a while ago that the marriage of Ned and Catlyn might have been a trigger. This was the first mixing of Stark blood and Andal blood that seems to have taken place. All other Stark marriages the we know of since the Long Night were to other northern houses or southron First Men, like the Blackwoods and the Royces.

And then Ned went ahead and built a sept for Catelyn at Winterfell...

 

[Colonel Green]

46 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I read a while ago that the marriage of Ned and Catlyn might have been a trigger. This was the first mixing of Stark blood and Andal blood that seems to have taken place. All other Stark marriages the we know of since the Long Night were to other northern houses or southron First Men, like the Blackwoods and the Royces.

And then Ned went ahead and built a sept for Catelyn at Winterfell...

The Tullys are a First Men house.  They have plenty of Andal blood, of course, but so do the Blackwoods, the Royces, and the Manderlys (and, presumably, the Rogerses), and the Starks have married into all those houses.

Why would the Others care about a sept being built at Winterfell?  They don't worship the Old Gods either.

[J. Stargaryen]

21 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

I look at it from the other direction: there's no evidence that he's dead. Literally zero reliable characters saw the body, and it was disposed of before anybody could see it. Everyone seems to take MMD at her word.

You're confusing evidence with proof. Statements and/or testimony are considered evidence. And without affirmative evidence to the contrary, there is no reason to doubt what MMD and Jhiqui told Dany.

21 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

I'm not sure I can agree to this premise. Was there any hint that baby Aegon had survived (or that there was an impostor in training) until he was introduced? Except for the HotU prophecy (which only points to fAegon in retrospect like all good prophecies) there was zero reason to suspect his existence.

I expect the situation will be similar, where once we know that happened to Rhaego we can look back as go "so THAT'S why that ship was in those places" or "so THAT'S what MMD meant when she said that." but until then we can only speculate.

That his face was smashed beyond recognition was a red flag for lots of readers. Also, GRRM later teased the possibility in a SSM. Prior to YG's introduction.

[RobbStarko]

Ehh the birth of Jon Snow one strikes me as something too cliche The most likely reason in my opinion is the tragedy of summer hall most likely triggered it as it may have shown the others that the dragons were on there way back or something to that effect it also gives the wildlings more time to encounter the others and the others to build a huge army 

[Damon_Tor]

10 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

You're confusing evidence with proof. Statements and/or testimony are considered evidence. And without affirmative evidence to the contrary, there is no reason to doubt what MMD and Jhiqui told Dany.

That his face was smashed beyond recognition was a red flag for lots of readers. Also, GRRM later teased the possibility in a SSM. Prior to YG's introduction.

Seems like a double standard: Baby Aegon's (bAegon?) face being unrecognizable is evidence that there was a swap, but Rhaego's body being fed to the dogs before anyone reliable could look at it isn't?

The idea that a baby that was kicking in it's mother's womb the day before could be "dead for weeks" and covered in maggots when he's born isn't credible. "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" seems to be the relevant quote, and the burden is unmet.