TheKitttenGuard Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 I think people who think there will be zero repercussion are being too cynical in this. Trump makes the best deals which he told you and the real basis of his campagin. Well Trump did not get it a deal and cannot be waved off on that he was not into it. This struck at the core basis of his campagin. I do see the talk is now on to Tax Reform at this is is what to be his wheelhouse. Now there be a great deal, the best, bigly. Well now the Republican are all on giving the biggest tax cut they can to the wealthiest. There are other factors involved including a huge ideologically one with imposition of a high and stiff import tax. I think there is a good room be skeptical of what will happen. Though with that they may just pass the cuts for the rich and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 10 hours ago, lokisnow said: I think there is no fall out. And the 2018 outcome remains unchanged: Republicans gain seats in the senate and lose seats in the house but maintain comfortable majorities in both. I don't know if there will be fall out, but I don't see an outcome like that in 2018. Wash elections are pretty rare these days; even when its not really a "landslide" its still generally the case that one side wins nearly all the competitive seats. Even 2016 was; Democrats picked up some seats because they were in such a huge hole, but Republicans still won almost all the competitive seats in the House and Senate. I don't know which it'll be, but I think 2018 will either see Democrats retake the House and pick up two Senate seats (which isn't a majority but that map is so brutal I don't see where a third seat could come from). Or they'll lose 10-15 House seats (they're at such a nadir it can't go lower than that really) and anywhere from 4-8 senate seats (potentially giving Republicans a filibuster-proof majority). It all depends on whether white voters abandon Trump the way they abandoned Bush in 2006, or whether Democrats are stuck with their usual midterms problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 Politically it would have been a lot more beneficial for the vote to have been held, because the attack ads are absurdly effective on it. They're simple to understand, obviously painful, and the bill had a 17% approval rate. Even if it didn't pass the senate, it would have been an effective way to pin them. This isn't as effective at getting elections, but it may be more effective at deadlocking any legislation for a while. I'm still more concerned with the executive power by itself. The EPA dying, the education department dying, massive deportations, massive weakening of intelligence - all of these things can still happen - but things like absurdly bad budgets and the like have much less of a shot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Politically it would have been a lot more beneficial for the vote to have been held, because the attack ads are absurdly effective on it. They're simple to understand, obviously painful, and the bill had a 17% approval rate. Even if it didn't pass the senate, it would have been an effective way to pin them. Apparently Bannon really wanted the vote for his own purposes. This dude certainly meets the expectations for an Evil Villain in terms of purely nasty motivations. I'd love for news like this to make the rounds and create some more hostility between WH and Congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 47 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Politically it would have been a lot more beneficial for the vote to have been held, because the attack ads are absurdly effective on it. They're simple to understand, obviously painful, and the bill had a 17% approval rate. Well sure - that's precisely why Ryan convinced Trump to pull the bill. I wonder if Trump had insisted on a vote for whatever reason - say so Bannon could create his enemies list like denstorebog linked to - if Ryan would have pulled it anyway. He'd be entirely justified in doing so, has to think of his own responsibilities as Speaker first. The electoral fallout is impossible to predict right now. It is entirely dependent on how the administration and the GOP House reacts to the failure, and ya know, the myriad other exogenous factors that are entirely unknown at this point. But the damage to the legislative agenda is crystal clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commodore Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 the employer/individual mandate haven't been enough to overcome the cost of Community Rating and Guaranteed Issue (CR/GI are the reason premiums have been rising), which is why you have had the death spiral with insurers fleeing the exchanges but the GOP replacement bill eliminated the mandates and kept Community Rating and Guaranteed Issue, so it makes the death spiral even worse (which is what Rand Paul and Mike Lee and the House Freedom Caucus kept pointing out) this was an awful bill that deserved to go down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trebla Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 1 hour ago, denstorebog said: Apparently Bannon really wanted the vote for his own purposes. This dude certainly meets the expectations for an Evil Villain in terms of purely nasty motivations. I'd love for news like this to make the rounds and create some more hostility between WH and Congress. Well, I think he certainly made himself the enemy of the Freedom Caucus: http://thehill.com/homenews/325767-report-bannon-told-conservatives-this-is-not-a-debate-you-have-to-vote-for-bill Quote White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon told a group of House conservatives they had no choice but to back the GOP's ObamaCare repeal bill days before the bill was pulled, according to a new report. Bannon confronted members of the House Freedom Caucus earlier this week during the White House's push for the American Health Care Act, Axios's Mike Allen reported Saturday in his newsletter. "Guys, look. This is not a discussion. This is not a debate. You have no choice but to vote for this bill,” Bannon reportedly said. A Freedom Caucus member reportedly replied: “You know, the last time someone ordered me to something, I was 18 years old. And it was my daddy. And I didn't listen to him, either." The conservative group met with President Trump at the White House on Thursday, but the president reportedly did not want to discuss policy specifics of the healthcare legislation. What chapter do you find THAT in "The Art of the Deal"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 For you Donny: Tu do do do, tu do do do, tu do do do, tu do do do do do do People say I’m nutty and not a smarty 'Cause across state lines is all I knew Although I might be tweetin' hard and hearty Deep inside I have the repeal and replace blues So take good look at my plans to replace You’ll see my bluster was a disgrace If you look closer, it’s easy to trace Republicans bullshitin’ for seven years I had no clue(no clue), No clue(no clue) Since repeal and replace has left me, if you see me with a Russian call girl Seeming like I’m having fun Although I dig Russian prostitutes It will be just a substitute Because I told some suckers I'd get this done So take a good look at my plans to replace You'll see my bluster was a disgrace If you look a little bit closer, it’s easy to trace Oh, Republicans bullshitin’ for seven years Oh, I had no clue(no clue), No clue (no clue) Hey yeah, (outside) I was masquerading (Inside) my replacement was fading (Just a clown) oh yeah Since everyone put our plan down My style is just to make shit up I swear, since I didn't have slightest clue Maybe, take a good look at my plans to replace Oh, you'll see my bluster was a disgrace Yeah, just look closer, it's easy to trace Republicans bullshitin for seven years,crazy, crazy, crazy Maybe, take a good look at my plans to replace Yeah, you’ll see my bluster was a disgrace Ooh, look a little bit closer, it’s easy to trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 On March 24, 2017 at 6:27 PM, Kalbear said: Mostly because of their promises, I think. It also makes the next set of tax cuts a lot easier to do. Ryan basically had his plan of doing this first, then taxes second, and told Trump this was the only way to do it and you had to do the health stuff first. Ryan was lying, but Trump bought it (you can see this in some of his tweets and comments). The trickle down bullshit also is going to be a lot more complex than simply repealing certain things - or at least that's what people think. They haven't started working on those tax plans either, and they'll still need to figure out how to balance costs out. With the 'savings' from the health repeal they'd have more latitude. They won't have that now. Essentially all their plans revolve around being able to do things with zero input or consideration from Democrats. That is their governing style, now. Cheers, kal. One more aspect to pulling the bill after telling their party they had to vote for it is this: it signals to Republicans very, very clearly that Trump/Bannon care a great deal about political fallout when it comes to their own optics but are just fine with GOPers risking an albatross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Commodore said: the employer/individual mandate haven't been enough to overcome the cost of Community Rating and Guaranteed Issue (CR/GI are the reason premiums have been rising), which is why you have had the death spiral with insurers fleeing the exchanges I think I'm gonna give you an opportunity to clean this mess up, before I do it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 25 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: You’ll see my bluster was a disgrace Love this line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 28 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said: Saw this earlier. Of course Prez Repeal on Day One Loser Man wouldn't sign this bill if it crossed his desk, but yes, it's a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commodore Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 44 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: I think I'm gonna give you an opportunity clean this mess up, before I do it for you. http://time.com/money/4470574/obamacare-providers-2017/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Just now, Commodore said: http://time.com/money/4470574/obamacare-providers-2017/ You're gonna have to do better than that @Commodore. Think real hard about what you want to say here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazydog7 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Ok this is the only Trump defense-ish thing I will ever say. I think he honestly thought being president was like being the CEO of a company. I think to a certain extent he bought into his own propaganda if the USA is the biggest corporation in the world we need a businessman to run it blah blah. Thank whatever higher power you happen to believe in that in spite of its many flaws that is not how government works at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Crazydog7 said: Ok this is the only Trump defense-ish thing I will ever say. I think he honestly thought being president was like being the CEO of a company. I think to a certain extent he bought into his own propaganda if the USA is the biggest corporation in the world we need a businessman to run it blah blah. Thank whatever higher power you happen to believe in that in spite of its many flaws that is not how government works at least not yet. One of his first comments was something about finding out 'who's loyal', bwahahahahahaha! Dude, so many of the House clowns are loyal to themselves getting re-elected before anything else. They did the algebra required to figure out if a 'yea' or 'nay' vote had the worse consequences for them at the ballot box of the future. It's what they do, it's how they swim through the sharks, and you Twitterer in Chief don't scare them as much as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 http://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-ahca-health-care-obamacare-2017-3 Quote Each option is a political nightmare for Republicans for the same reason: Each would amount to an admission that Republicans cannot deliver what they have promised for years on healthcare. For years, Republicans promised lower premiums, lower deductibles, lower co-payments, lower taxes, lower government expenditure, more choice, the restoration of the $700 billion that President Barack Obama heartlessly cut out of Medicare because he hated old people, and (in the particular case of the Republican who recently became president) "insurance for everybody" that is "much less expensive and much better" than what they have today. They were lying. Over and over and over and over, Republicans lied to the American public about healthcare. It was impossible to do all of the things they were promising together, and they knew it. Quote It was all a lie. And the lie is finally about to be punished. I can only hope Barro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stannis is the man....nis Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Rumors are swirling that Flynn has flipped on Trump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stannis is the man....nis said: Rumors are swirling that Flynn has flipped on Trump Saw that on the Twitters... Not sure if there's much to it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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