Black Crow

Heresy 197 the wit and wisdom of Old Nan

399 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

Sure, and I think he'd still be the "Mummer's (possessive) dragon" that Quaithe lists in ADWD even if he's legit, but I don't think his inclusion in the "slayer of lies" segment of visions bodes well for his authenticity, and it would also be odd (to me, anyway) if Aegon is the subject of both the "dying prince" and "cloth dragon" visions that occur in short succession, as it would then be redundant visions that imply Aegon VI's death, within a few sentences of one another.

The "dying prince" vision in the House of the Undying is separate from Quaithe's prophetic warning:

"No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

I guess I don't see the conflict. Daenerys was warned about the mummer's dragon, for what reason we do not know. But the vision of the prince dying in the river could be much later. 

 

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3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I guess I don't see the conflict. Daenerys was warned about the mummer's dragon, for what reason we do not know. But the vision of the prince dying in the river could be much later. 

I think Matthew means this HOTU passage:

Quote

Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies

So Matthew's idea is that all three of these visions represent lies of some sort that Dany is going to slay

If the first is Stannis, perhaps the lie is his sword, or that he's AAR.  The third?  I haven't heard a convincing explanation.  Not clear what sort of lie it is or how it would relate to Dany.

And the second is what Matthew meant, the idea being that that vision represents Aegon, and so Dany will slay him.  But here too things look very ambiguous.  A crowd cheering Targs, it might be, but if so, that could mean support for herself as easily as anything about Aegon.  Does that mean she will slay herself?  Or if he represents a lie (meaning, perhaps, a false Targ) perhaps it's that lie about him she would slay, rather than Aegon personally.  In which case the dying prince vision would be the only one of his actual death.

It's all crazy-nebulous, like walking drunk through a narrative cloud.  Which of course is how GRRM wanted it.

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

mother of dragons, slayer of lies

Duh, this is so obvious.  Dany only thought it was lies, but it wasn't. 

This is a prophecy related to an event she reminds us in the ADWD epilogue:

Quote

The fire burned away my hair, but elsewise it did not touch me.

By jumping into the pit with Drogon she became a slayer of lice!

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, JNR said:

Duh, this is so obvious.  Dany only thought it was lies, but it wasn't. 

This is a prophecy related to an event she reminds us in the ADWD epilogue:

By jumping into the pit with Drogon she became a slayer of lice!

LOL!

A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd.

- The lie that Illyrio tells... the people are secretly sewing dragon banners and waiting for the return of the Targaryens.

Quote

 

A Game of Thrones - Daenerys I

"They are your people, and they love you well," Magister Illyrio said amiably. "In holdfasts all across the realm, men lift secret toasts to your health while women sew dragon banners and hide them against the day of your return from across the water." He gave a massive shrug. "Or so my agents tell me."

 

Edited by LynnS

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Posted (edited)

17 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

...IMO he was down south in Dorne, to bring his son or maybe even his daughter too, to safety. Not convinced Aegon was at the tower of joy, because I think he was already safe by the time Rhaegar returned, talked to Jaime, and then headed for the Trident.

Very true. Rhaegar talked to Jaime before going to the Trident. Thanks for reminding me of it.

He missed 4 battles, IIRC before appearing to lead the army.

That's a lot of battles.

And allowed Lyanna's brother and father die ghastly deaths without lifting a finger to save them.

I wonder how Lyanna took that.

Anyway, off to reread that conversation between Rhaegar and Jaime.

ETA:

Found 

AFFC Jaime I

Spoiler

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but . . . well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."

Those were the last words Rhaegar Targaryen ever spoke to him. Outside the gates an army had assembled, whilst another descended on the Trident. So the Prince of Dragonstone mounted up and donned his tall black helm, and rode forth to his doom.

14 hours ago, JNR said:

 

...To paraphrase the Dothraki... it is not known.  :D

Just to show you the impressive extent of the canonical failure to establish the crucially important answer to your question in any sense:

It cannot be shown, using the canon, where either Prince Rhaegar or Lyanna Stark were for a single day of the many months in which they were both missing.

In fact, it can't be shown that they were even together on the same continent at any time during Robert's Rebellion (unless you believe the fapp, which the wise never do).

However, those who ask such questions are wise.  I see your professorship is justly awarded. ...

 

 

 

Praise from the praiseworthy is praise indeed, though, truth be told, I can only say that the stories of people using prophecy to justify horrible acts simply doesn't sit well with me. 

Prophecies are such twisty beasties.

The fapp. Hmm. Strategies to oblige me to upgrade my cell-phone make me look around to see the location of the nearest exit. It's like hearing the band playing "Rains" at a wedding banquet.

 

13 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The one I find most jarring is that of a "minotaur" being one of the Dragonstone gargoyles.  It's like running across a temple to Zeus in Valyria.

Ahh, that's a good one. The minotaur takes us to Theseus and Ariadne. 

Hmmm. A thesis with the premise of ASOIAF as a retelling of the Theseus story.

Could work.

 

ETA. I just reread the text of that last conversation between Jaime and Rhaegar.

(edited to hide a mention of the HBO production behind a spoiler)

Spoiler

I wonder if D&D didn't displace it to the last conversation between Ned and Jon in the HBO production. 

Anyway, I don't get the impression Rhaegar is talking about big surprises about hidden children, but rather governmental changes.

I find this subject most intriguing.

Thoughts?

Edited by Prof. Cecily

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8 hours ago, JNR said:

I think Matthew means this HOTU passage:

So Matthew's idea is that all three of these visions represent lies of some sort that Dany is going to slay

If the first is Stannis, perhaps the lie is his sword, or that he's AAR.  The third?  I haven't heard a convincing explanation.  Not clear what sort of lie it is or how it would relate to Dany.

And the second is what Matthew meant, the idea being that that vision represents Aegon, and so Dany will slay him.  But here too things look very ambiguous.  A crowd cheering Targs, it might be, but if so, that could mean support for herself as easily as anything about Aegon.  Does that mean she will slay herself?  Or if he represents a lie (meaning, perhaps, a false Targ) perhaps it's that lie about him she would slay, rather than Aegon personally.  In which case the dying prince vision would be the only one of his actual death.

It's all crazy-nebulous, like walking drunk through a narrative cloud.  Which of course is how GRRM wanted it.

I'd like to believe that Brienne will get to slay Stannis. When Lady Stoneheart gives her the choice between noose or sword, my money is on Brienne yelling out "STANNIS!" Brienne made Catelyn promise that should the time come, she would not stand in the way of Brienne killing Stannis, and so I anticipate that somehow Lady Stoneheart will remember and let Brienne go to kill Stannis. 

As for how Dany is "slayer of lies"...I don't have a formulated theory on what that entails, but at the moment I don't think Dany will even come to Westeros. I think LynnS is onto something when she brought up the lie that there are people in Westeros sewing Targaryen flags. The lies may be all the reasons she thought were important to conquer Westeros. Maybe she'll come to the realization that her destiny is to stay in Meereen, or to rebuild Valyria?

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56 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

... at the moment I don't think Dany will even come to Westeros. I think LynnS is onto something when she brought up the lie that there are people in Westeros sewing Targaryen flags. The lies may be all the reasons she thought were important to conquer Westeros. Maybe she'll come to the realization that her destiny is to stay in Meereen, or to rebuild Valyria?

Oh, I like that idea very much. Very much.

Or, since I reckon her dragons have little future in Westeros, even turn the ruins of Valyria into a dragon preserve.

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6 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Anyway, I don't get the impression Rhaegar is talking about big surprises about hidden children, but rather governmental changes.

I find this subject most intriguing.

Thoughts?

Agree.   And these governmental changes didn't involve Rhaegar booting Aerys in order to take the throne for himself, IMO - I think he had bigger plans for Westeros.

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3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

As for how Dany is "slayer of lies"...I don't have a formulated theory on what that entails, but at the moment I don't think Dany will even come to Westeros. I think LynnS is onto something when she brought up the lie that there are people in Westeros sewing Targaryen flags. The lies may be all the reasons she thought were important to conquer Westeros. Maybe she'll come to the realization that her destiny is to stay in Meereen, or to rebuild Valyria?

It's also possible that Varys is the 'mummer's dragon' if he is a Blackfyre as some suggest.  Quaithe's warning seems more about political alliances to me; the game of power.  Dany at least resists the trap laid by the Undying, refuses to join the splendor of wizards and Drogon burns their house down.  The corruption of power represented by the blue heart, above a stone table, of a type used for playing Cyvasse.

It's curious that Quaithe tells Dany to remember the Undying/Decievers and that she must pass beneath the Shadow to touch the light.  This seems to be a reference to Vaes Dothrak and the shadow beneath the Mother of Mountains.

Quote

 

A Clash of Kings - Daenerys IV

Faster and faster the visions came, one after the other, until it seemed as if the very air had come alive. Shadows whirled and danced inside a tent, boneless and terrible. A little girl ran barefoot toward a big house with a red door. Mirri Maz Duur shrieked in the flames, a dragon bursting from her brow. Behind a silver horse the bloody corpse of a naked man bounced and dragged. A white lion ran through grass taller than a man. Beneath the Mother of Mountains, a line of naked crones crept from a great lake and knelt shivering before her, their grey heads bowed. Ten thousand slaves lifted bloodstained hands as she raced by on her silver, riding like the wind. "Mother!" they cried. "Mother, mother!" They were reaching for her, touching her, tugging at her cloak, the hem of her skirt, her foot, her leg, her breast. They wanted her, needed her, the fire, the life, and Dany gasped and opened her arms to give herself to them . . .

 

 

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Daenerys II

"Are you here?"
"No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

 

 
If Varys is the mummer's dragon, who is allied with him?  The obvious answer is Illyrio but that doesn't fit the pairing with the sun's sun.  Quentin Martell hardly poses any threat.   Jon Connington goes along with Varys' plans for the moment, but likes him not and trusts him little and less. He plans to pay him back in spades when the time comes.
 
On first blush Kraken and dark flame would appear to be Victarion and Moqorro.  There is a team up of sorts and probably to Moqorro's advantage rather than Victarion's. The ultimate source of power is a living dragon or a young dragon; if you need a replacement which is why dark flame poses a threat as well as the Kraken IMO. 
 
In a way, Moqorro echoes Quaithe sentiment concerning the decievers:
 
Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion VIII

"Someone told me that the night is dark and full of terrors. What do you see in those flames?"

"Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros. He spoke it very well, with hardly a trace of accent. No doubt that was one reason the high priest Benerro had chosen him to bring the faith of R'hllor to Daenerys Targaryen. "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all."

I think the question is whether or not someone is true of false in their heart or a dangerous friend.

Dragons bright and dark...  dark flame:

From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire.

 
 

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On 5/6/2017 at 0:51 PM, JNR said:

But why doesn't Dany realize or say that she was looking at Rhaegar twice, despite seeing the two visions only moments apart, and apparently seeing his face in both?

I suspect that after so many hundreds of years following the Long Night... a time when the focus of the Watch had shifted to the rapidly-expanding wildling population, and the Popsicles faded from threat to legend to myth... the point of dragonglass daggers became less and less relevant to anybody involved.  Such weapons weren't nearly as useful against wildlings as metal blades.

I pointed this out on the other thread as well and it was skipped over,but to me this isva rather pedestrian mistake to make.Given who the author is and the themes in this book when it comes to perception.I think this is one of those where readers are seeing what we want to see.Rubies flying,water and calling the individual Prince is bound to have readers thinking that it is Rhaegar and the setting was the Trident.

Very few people would ask why the disconnect from Dany if she's seeing the same person.It could be a future event.It could be the past.

On 5/7/2017 at 10:19 AM, Brad Stark said:

I don't understand how this could be anything other than a mistake by GRRM.  If you clearly heard what was said, you'd know the name of the woman.  If you didn't,  he could have murmured the name of his horse.

He could be messing with the fans a bit here again to.Concealing this at this juncture doesn't make sense.I'll bring up this point again.By the time Dany has this vision,we the readers already know the rumors.If the vision is true its anti climatic and a waste of time to hide what was said,have people wait X amount of years and reveal in an app the name was Lyanna.

On 5/7/2017 at 10:58 AM, PrettyPig said:

 

I'll also point out here that in addition to not recognizing the face in the vision, Dany didn't recognize the name either.   A bit odd, considering that she grew up with Viserys spitting all kinds of poison in her ear about the Usurper and his dogs, and the northern slut that was taken by Rhaegar at swordpoint, etc.   I find it hard to believe she wouldn't know the names of all the Rebellion players - yet, she hears this murmured 'woman's name' and it doesn't resonate at all.

The amount of supposed mistake GRRm has made us startling huh!

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32 minutes ago, LynnS said:

It's also possible that Varys is the 'mummer's dragon' if he is a Blackfyre as some suggest.  Quaithe's warning seems more about political alliances to me; the game of power.  Dany at least resists the trap laid by the Undying, refuses to join the splendor of wizards and Drogon burns their house down.  The corruption of power represented by the blue heart, above a stone table, of a type used for playing Cyvasse.

It's curious that Quaithe tells Dany to remember the Undying/Decievers and that she must pass beneath the Shadow to touch the light.  This seems to be a reference to Vaes Dothrak and the shadow beneath the Mother of Mountains.

 

 
If Varys is the mummer's dragon, who is allied with him?  The obvious answer is Illyrio but that doesn't fit the pairing with the sun's sun.  Quentin Martell hardly poses any threat.   Jon Connington goes along with Varys' plans for the moment, but likes him not and trusts him little and less. He plans to pay him back in spades when the time comes.
 
On first blush Kraken and dark flame would appear to be Victarion and Moqorro.  There is a team up of sorts and probably to Moqorro's advantage rather than Victarion's. The ultimate source of power is a living dragon or a young dragon; if you need a replacement which is why dark flame poses a threat as well as the Kraken IMO. 
 
In a way, Moqorro echoes Quaithe sentiment concerning the decievers:
 

 

 

I think the question is whether or not someone is true of false in their heart or a dangerous friend.

Dragons bright and dark...  dark flame:

From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire.

 
 

I didn't realize this until now,but the pronoun used to describe "pale mare" is "her."

If these cryptic symbols mean people who could she be? 

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6 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Strategies to oblige me to upgrade my cell-phone make me look around to see the location of the nearest exit.

Again, wise.  When a fan offers to sell you information that is supposed to be canonical already, as drawn from books you already own, you should ponder that premise a bit. 

And GRRM's ostensible "participation" in it seems not to have been terribly... engaged:

Quote

So the official George and his publisher approved World of Ice and Fire app is available. I can attest to the fact that he personally worked on this project, because I sat and took notes as we went over hundreds of questions on random Ice and Fire arcana. No, it didn't delay Winds of Winter. I made him do it while he ate lunch. Yes, he complains when I make him work during lunch.

Made him do it.  While he complained.  Uh huh.

3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

When Lady Stoneheart gives her the choice between noose or sword, my money is on Brienne yelling out "STANNIS!"

The answer to this was given by GRRM at a convention: it's "sword."

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Posted (edited)

12 hours ago, JNR said:

So Matthew's idea is that all three of these visions represent lies of some sort that Dany is going to slay

Yes, and the reason I was also referencing Quaithe's vision is because of this exchange from ACOK:
 

Quote
"A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood . . . what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer's dragon you said. What is a mummer's dragon, pray?"
"A cloth dragon on poles," Dany explained. "Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight."

My flow of logic was that Young Griff is the best fit (IMO) for the "Mummer's Dragon" from the set of figures that Quaithe lists in ADWD, and since Dany has had a vision of a "mummer's dragon" as a lie that she might slay, I'm assuming that Young Griff isn't actually Aegon VI.

My general interpretation of that passage from ACOK isn't just that Dany will slay lies, but that the three figures represent lies to her truth: true Azor Ahai, true Targaryen, true dragons.

12 hours ago, JNR said:

The third?  I haven't heard a convincing explanation

That is the tricky one, and my longstanding assumption has been that it will be fulfilled by Melisandre sacrificing Shireen in the same manner that she'd intended to sacrifice Edric Storm.
 

Quote

The flames do not lie, else you would not be here. It is written in prophecy as well. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone.

The above is the prophecy that is guiding Melisandre, and I've been content to assume that this has already been fulfilled by Dany with the stone eggs.

Initially, I thought that this is what Melisandre intended to do as well--sacrifice someone with "king's blood" to hatch an egg. However, her loyalists keep referencing the idea of "waking the stone dragon," which causes me to wonder if its yet another bit of prophecy and lore that she's misunderstood, and she's going to do something crazy with a stone dragon (a statue from Dragonstone? A real dragon, killed by grayscale?) and shadowbinding to fulfill that third vision.

That said, ADWD also introduces the possibility for more abstract fulfillments of the stone beast/shadow fire idea; grayscale is rising in plot relevance, Davos' last ADWD chapter suggests he might go to Skagos (where the "Stoneborn" reside), and Moqorro (the dark flame from Quaithe's vision) has entered the stage, so any one of those ideas might somehow intersect to fulfill the vision.

Edited by Matthew.

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, wolfmaid7 said:

I didn't realize this until now,but the pronoun used to describe "pale mare" is "her."

If these cryptic symbols mean people who could she be? 

At this point, it appears that the pale mare is a harginger not unlike the great red comet.  I don't know that there is anything more to go on. 

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:
Quote
"A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood . . . what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer's dragon you said. What is a mummer's dragon, pray?"
"A cloth dragon on poles," Dany explained. "Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight."

My flow of logic was that Young Griff is the best fit (IMO) for the "Mummer's Dragon" from the set of figures that Quaithe lists in ADWD, and since Dany has had a vision of a "mummer's dragon" as a lie that she might slay, I'm assuming that Young Griff isn't actually Aegon VI.

Something that Varys intends to invert or subvert being a mummer himself.  The people can't be too enamored of Targaryens after Aerys' reign but they did love Rhaegar according to the songs.  Unless one is a Baratheon loyalist.  

I'm inclined to question the direct associations that we are meant to have as readers.  Otherwise Martin wouldn't be so cryptic about identities.

Kraken and dark flame could also refer to Euron and and someone as yet unrevealed. 

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion VII

The priest was pointing at the Black Wall behind the temple, gesturing up at its parapets, where a handful of armored guardsmen stood gazing down. "What is he saying?" Tyrion asked the knight.

"That Daenerys stands in peril. The dark eye has fallen upon her, and the minions of night are plotting her destruction, praying to their false gods in temples of deceit … conspiring at betrayal with godless outlanders …"

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion VIII

Griff, with his young prince. Could all that talk of the Golden Company sailing west have been a feint? Tyrion considered saying something, then thought better. It seemed to him that the prophecy that drove the red priests had room for just one hero. A second Targaryen would only serve to confuse them. "Have you seen these others in your fires?" he asked, warily.

"Only their shadows," Moqorro said. "One most of all. A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."

 

The lion and griffin pairing is another that seems to point to Tyrion and JonCon; except that Tyrion actually subverts the plan sending Aegon westward.  It seems to me that the lion could very well be Cersei:
 

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Cersei II

I am Cersei of House Lannister, a lion of the Rock, the rightful queen of these Seven Kingdoms, trueborn daughter of Tywin Lannister. And hair grows back. "Get on with it," she said.

 

In the Epilogue of DwD; Varys dispatches Kevin Lannister in Machiavelli's finest tradition, in order to keep Mad Queen Cersei in place.  A target for the hero of the day to vanquish for the cheering crowds.

A griffin by definition is a winged lion.
 

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - The Iron Suitor

The wizard was a monster of a man, as tall as Victarion himself and twice as wide, with a belly like a boulder and a tangle of bone-white hair that grew about his face like a lion's mane. His skin was black.

 

 

What I'm left with are consistent, nagging suspicions that everything isn't what it seems; that Martin with subvert reader expectations at every turn of the page; up to and including when he'll publish the next book. :D

 

Edited by LynnS

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1 hour ago, LynnS said:

At this point, it appears that the pale mare is a harginger not unlike the great red comet.

I don't know LynnS.It seems more person than thing.Also,given the series that follow also signify persons it seems off to start with a thing and end with symbolic people.

It could be Lady Dustin for all we know.

 

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16 minutes ago, wolfmaid7 said:

I don't know LynnS.It seems more person than thing.Also,given the series that follow also signify persons it seems off to start with a thing and end with symbolic people.

It could be Lady Dustin for all we know.

 

I don't know.  The rider shows up with the announcement "She is burning, she is burning."  That seems to be a reference to Astapor but it's the Green Grace who tells Dany that the gods are angry and this is their judgement.  There is the mysterious Harpy; whomever that might be.

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3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

That is the tricky one, and my longstanding assumption has been that it will be fulfilled by Melisandre sacrificing Shireen in the same manner that she'd intended to sacrifice Edric Storm.

Or it could mean that the "great stone beast" simply has lice, and Dany will slay the lice.

I also suspect things might go poorly for... Lys.

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6 hours ago, JNR said:

Again, wise.  When a fan offers to sell you information that is supposed to be canonical already, as drawn from books you already own, you should ponder that premise a bit. 

And GRRM's ostensible "participation" in it seems not to have been terribly... engaged:

Made him do it.  While he complained.  Uh huh.

 

Interesting confirmations of my gut reactions to these notions, @JNR. Thanks for sharing this infors

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