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What was Tywin thinking?


Coolbeard the Exile

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Guys what was Tywin thinking? Was Tywin really thinking that he could beat all of Westeros by himself?

Allthough he didn't expect Joffrey would execute Eddard and it is well possible that it wasn't Tywin's army that was savaging the Riverlands early on it still seems pretty clear that he was intent on war. Tywin atleast knew Renly and Stannis would rebel and maybe Robb Stark and Hoster Tully depending on how things turn out. Ontop of the them he probably could have figured out that Highgarden would join Renly and he knew that Dorne, the Iron Islands and that the Vale were likely to go against him aswell. It is possible that he knew the Vale and Dorne would be neutral but the Iron Islands are a big threat but it is possible that he made a deal with him though unlikely.

So Tywin was going to defeat the Stark's and Tully's first. Fair enough not too hard the Riverlanders are in a bad place and the Frey's won't help them and the Northerners are led by a green boy but he was going to bloody his forces in defeating them. Whilst fighting the Stark's and Tully's he would have the Greyjoy's to his back. It is possible that he intentionally left in the Westerlands with enough men to form a third army to defend the Westerlands from the Greyjoys but the Greyjoy's would still be able to inflict alot of damage sacking and capturing the Westerland castles close to the coast like The Crag, the Banefort, Castamere, Fair Castle, Kayce, Feastfires, Lannisport, Casterly Rock, Tarbeckhall and Crakehall. Even though the Lannisters would be able to repel the Greyjoy's the Greyjoy's would still be able to defeat the Lannister fleet and constantly raid the Westerlands.

Fine, Tywin defeats the Stark's and Tully's with minor casualties and the Greyjoy's are swiftly repeled and kept in check by well garrisoned castle's. He now has to deal with the Baratheon's and Tyrell's forces which number 100,000. The Redwyne twins are hostages so their fleet wouldn't be a danger but he would also have to deal with 200 ships. If it went perfectly for Tywin this far he would not even have half as many troops and not even a quarter of the ships that Stannis has. This is the best setup possible for Tywin to reasonably have against the Baratheon's and still he wouldn't have a chance and Tywin with his mega mind could arive at the same conclusion. 

Why did he go to war was it a misstake or am i missing something?

 

 

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When he began his war against the Riverlands, he wasn't expecting Stannis and Renly to declare themselves King. How could he? He knows nothing about the incest, so natural assumption would be that loyal, dutiful and justice obsessed Stannis would support Joffrey. And I doubt Tywin ever even met Renly and thus couldn't know that he'd ignore laws of succesion to proclaim himself King.

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3 minutes ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

 

Fine, Tywin defeats the Stark's and Tully's with minor casualties and the Greyjoy's are swiftly repeled and kept in check by well garrisoned castle's. He now has to deal with the Baratheon's and Tyrell's forces which number 100,000. The Redwyne twins are hostages so their fleet wouldn't be a danger but he would also have to deal with 200 ships. If it went perfectly for Tywin this far he would not even have half as many troops and not even a quarter of the ships that Stannis has. This is the best setup possible for Tywin to reasonably have against the Baratheon's and still he wouldn't have a chance and Tywin with his mega mind could arive at the same conclusion. 

Why did he go to war was it a misstake or am i missing something?

 

 

Well he went to war more to defend his family's honour (over Tyrion's kidnapping) rather than any premeditated reason I feel. Like you said he was confident he could beat the North and Riverlands and that the West could repel any Ironborn invasion. 

He correctly assumed that Dorne would remain neutral and that Renly would not be able to lead his forces well. Stannis was the major threat posed and Tywin saw him as such. I can only guess that he planned on letting the Baratheons fight it out first, leave Tyrion to defend KL, while he defeated the North and Riverlands made them bend the knee and then use their forces along with the Vale to crush any survivors. He seemed to approve of Tyrion's betrothal of Myrcella to Trystane so he probably hoped to bring Dorne into the plan. 

There are a lot of risks involved, and a lot of factors he couldn't have planned for, e.g. Robb + Balon proclaiming themselves kings. But he was able to adapt well enough and come out on top, so all in all, I think he did pretty well.

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19 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

When he began his war against the Riverlands, he wasn't expecting Stannis and Renly to declare themselves King. How could he? He knows nothing about the incest, so natural assumption would be that loyal, dutiful and justice obsessed Stannis would support Joffrey. And I doubt Tywin ever even met Renly and thus couldn't know that he'd ignore laws of succesion to proclaim himself King.

I think Tywin had his suspicions on Joffrey's parentage.

 Tywin knew that Stannis went to Dragonstone and that probably his brother would go solo or join him.

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20 minutes ago, theblackdragonI said:

Well he went to war more to defend his family's honour (over Tyrion's kidnapping) rather than any premeditated reason I feel. Like you said he was confident he could beat the North and Riverlands and that the West could repel any Ironborn invasion. 

He correctly assumed that Dorne would remain neutral and that Renly would not be able to lead his forces well. Stannis was the major threat posed and Tywin saw him as such. I can only guess that he planned on letting the Baratheons fight it out first, leave Tyrion to defend KL, while he defeated the North and Riverlands made them bend the knee and then use their forces along with the Vale to crush any survivors. He seemed to approve of Tyrion's betrothal of Myrcella to Trystane so he probably hoped to bring Dorne into the plan. 

There are a lot of risks involved, and a lot of factors he couldn't have planned for, e.g. Robb + Balon proclaiming themselves kings. But he was able to adapt well enough and come out on top, so all in all, I think he did pretty well.

Sure he went to war for his family's honour and for power but still his priority should be the survival of his house.

Renly didn't plan on leading the forces he had other guys for that like Randyl, Mathis and Loras and they are no noobs. 

Sure he was planning on the Baratheons fighting it out which might have lead to tops 10,000 deaths but he would still be vastly outnumberd and King's Landing is being starved.

I don't think he counted on the Vale joining him anytime and he is clever enough to understand that Doran is probably not going to help him very much.

Sure there are risks but it seems a little bit out of character for such a smart guy.

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1 hour ago, theblackdragonI said:

Well he went to war more to defend his family's honour (over Tyrion's kidnapping) rather than any premeditated reason I feel. Like you said he was confident he could beat the North and Riverlands and that the West could repel any Ironborn invasion. 

He correctly assumed that Dorne would remain neutral and that Renly would not be able to lead his forces well. Stannis was the major threat posed and Tywin saw him as such. I can only guess that he planned on letting the Baratheons fight it out first, leave Tyrion to defend KL, while he defeated the North and Riverlands made them bend the knee and then use their forces along with the Vale to crush any survivors. He seemed to approve of Tyrion's betrothal of Myrcella to Trystane so he probably hoped to bring Dorne into the plan. 

There are a lot of risks involved, and a lot of factors he couldn't have planned for, e.g. Robb + Balon proclaiming themselves kings. But he was able to adapt well enough and come out on top, so all in all, I think he did pretty well.

Mostly this. Tywin has made a name for himself and his house by brutally crushing anyone who slighted his house. See the Reynes and Tarbecks. He correctly assumed that he could roll over the Riverlands as they are nearly impossible to defend, and didn't see Rob as a real threat.  I would argue that the Ironborn were in fact not a threat at all at this stage. Balon is an opportunist who had only recently been smacked down hard for making a similar move. He isn't attacking anyone unless they are already badly bloodied and incapable of defending themselves. In the case of the North, that meant also currently not enjoying the protection of the Iron Throne, which Tywin was in control of.  Tywin planned on ending this threat to his family, then allying himself with whoever he could in order to win a continued campaign. Once Renly and Stannis have declared themselves king, he has no choice but to fight. Unless he plans on handing over Cersei and her kids to be slaughtered by whichever of them comes out on top.  Things changed rapidly from the time Tywin sent The Mountain out to raid the Riverlands and ambush (hopefully Ned, but as it turns out) Berrick Dondarrion to the time when Stannis and Renly were at his throat.  Tywin had little choice but to play a strategic game, and hope he could make something happen. Which as it turns out is exactly what he did.  With a little help from Tyrion, and a big handicap in Joff/Cersei of course.

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There are a lot of reasons for why Tywin did this. The biggest and most important, I feel, is arrogance. 
The Lannisters had been ruling the realm in all but name for roughly ten years. Robert knew fully well that Tywin had an iron-grip on his balls. Not only was Casterly Rock one of the only things keeping the royal treasury afloat, but Robert had also named Jaime as Warden of the East; they were readying up to take even more power. I'm also sure Tywin always had some inkling -- if not outright knowledge -- of Cersei's hatred of Robert and her intent to kill him soon. In his mind, there was no one who could stop him. Who would dare try anything against Tywin Lannister?

When word reaches him that Tyrion was captured, he starts to rally his forces and hire sellswords, which is a fairly predictable thing to do; god forbid people think Tywin is a pushover. It isn't until Jaime tries to kill Ned (which was a seriously stupid move) and runs off to the West that Tywin's hand is forced. Edmure grows a pair and stands up to him too, which I'm sure he didn't like, so he doesn't attack outright, but instead sends scouts and bandits to harass the Riverlands. This is Tywin once again prodding for weaknesses and seeing what his enemy does first. I don't think he ever expected Ned to be jailed, and he definitely didn't expect he'd be killed, triggering Robb to go to war. That last bit is basically what pushes it from being a pissing match into full blown war. 

So in short, no, Tywin did not think he could beat all of Westeros himself because Tywin had no idea that almost all of Westeros would be going to war soon. This started as an insult to House Lannister (which had grown way too greedy and arrogant under Robert's rule), and very quickly escalated into a fight. I'm not sure Tywin ever meant for this war to happen, but Robb and Edmure stood up to him, then Renly and Stannis rebelled too, so things kept getting out of control for him. And once the cow's been milked there's no squirting the cream back up its udders. 

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I for one don't think Tywin actually wanted to go to war in the first place. When he amassed the first host at Casterly Rock he was just flexing his muscle, posturing really. I think he counted on Robert to step in, force Catelyn to return Tyrion and send Ned packing back to Winterfell. If push came to shove and fighting did break out, Tywin expected Ned to ride north and get himself captured, and that would be it. 

Of course, Jaime screwed this up when he wounded Ned at King's Landing, and Cersei escalated things to the eleventh degree when she killed Robert. That's where everything went to shit. 

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Yes, I think Tywin's plan was as stated: raid some of the Riverlands, capture Eddard Stark, trade him for Tyrion. Once Jamie screwed up this plan, he moved to trying to invest Riverrun, in the hopes Cat would trade Tyrion for her brother or father. He's reacting, not planning a long war. After the Starks march, he hopes to force them to back down after a battle, and at least get them to flee back north. Only then could he move to King's Landing, to hold it against Stannis and Renly

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Renly raising the Reach and Stormlands in rebellion was unexpected, he anticipated Stannis and with that perhaps Renly but I would imagine the entire Reach going to war was a complete surprise, other than that he was doing great. He steamrolled the Riverlands and was well prepared to take on the Northern relief, had Robb not had the command or had Jaime simply not taken the bait then chances are the North's army would have also been defeated, at that point it's pretty much a case of bringing the North and Riverlands to terms or bringing the Riverlands to terms whilst the Northerners withdraw beyond Moat Cailin leaving Tywin free to contend with whatever rebellion the Baratheon brothers may raise.  

He's basically just reacting to whatever events transpire post Tyrion's abduction and his invasion of the Riverlands, he did not attack expecting a full blown civil war between most of the great houses. There was no huge war planned, things just transpired that way. 

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What do you expect Tywin to do? His family was in danger. If he failed then Cersei would be accused of treasons and his grandchildren would end up dead. He had to act, and quickly.


Considering that the Baratheon brothers won’t settle for anything else rather than the crown Tywin was forced to deal with the Northern coalition. His plan was simple. The North take ages to raise an army and any quick incursion from their side would need the help of Walder Frey whose son is his guest at CR. Considering that the Riverlands were leaderless + they are a nightmare to defend he decided to invaded it quickly with the plan of taking Edmure and Hoster hostage. With such a pool of hostages in his hands (Edmure, Hoster, Ned, Sansa and Arya), he would then go at the negotiation table with the North/Vale/Riverlands with a strong hand. 


I won’t be surprised that if Tywin had his way, he would have Ned released as long as he bends the knee. Ned is a family man and with his father in law, his brother in law and his two daughters acting as hostage, Ned would have no choice but to comply and lead the Northern army against Tyrells and the Baratheon brothers. 


With the Reach being invaded from 3 fronts (Westerlands, Riverlands and Crownlands), it would only be a matter of time before the Tyrells would seek peace, possibly by killing Renly in exchange of Joffrey marrying Margaery.

At that point it will be all about consolidating power. With Stannis and Renly gone, the Stormlands would return to the crown and Joffrey would be ‘forced’ to allow Tommen to become LP of the Stormlands and release Jamie from the kingsguard. The former would then marry Arya, the latter Sansa and Ned will be forced to marry off Myrcella to the young wolf putting all talks of incest to bed. At CR, Edmure would be married off to Janei and once he's got 1-2 kids (one of which would end up Jamie's ward) he would be released. The Tullys would retain Riverrun but would lose their LP status to the new Lord or Harrenhal Kevan Lannister 


Unfortunately the old lion’s offspring’s stupidity + Walder’s betrayal ruined everything. Arya escaped and Joffrey executed Ned.

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Tywin was helped by the fact that all his enemies were completely disunited. Renly and Stannis fought each other rather than united against him, and the North/Riverlands went for independence rather than support either of them. Add to that Balon Greyjoy attacking the North rather than the Westerlands, and Tywin was absurdly lucky.

That being said, before Whispering Wood his position seems quite strong. He trounced the River lords and was opposed only by a 15 year old boy. Tbh, even after Whispering Wood, if Joffery hadn’t lopped Ned’s head off, his position still would still have been pretty strong – he would have been able to placate the North and would only have been opposed by the disunited Baratheon brothers.

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18 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Tywin was helped by the fact that all his enemies were completely disunited. Renly and Stannis fought each other rather than united against him, and the North/Riverlands went for independence rather than support either of them. Add to that Balon Greyjoy attacking the North rather than the Westerlands, and Tywin was absurdly lucky.

 

That being said, before Whispering Wood his position seems quite strong. He trounced the River lords and was opposed only by a 15 year old boy. Tbh, even after Whispering Wood, if Joffery hadn’t lopped Ned’s head off, his position still would still have been pretty strong – he would have been able to placate the North and would only have been opposed by the disunited Baratheon brothers.

 

True

On the other hand as said before, his initial hand was quite strong. Joffrey and Walder ruined that for him. 

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I think he did have it all planned out, the way he planned for things to go. But once Jaime attacked Ned and Joffrey chopped his head off, he had no choice but to start reacting to things he could not control or foresee.

Regarding the parentage of Cersei's kids and her incest with Jaime, I suspect that Tywin knew all along. He was just in denial and refused to face the truth.

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One must recall that initially, after Tyrion's kidnapping, Tywin was acting in a way in which he had plausible deniability (minor raids by Gregor and his men without banners), and the goal of that was to create a trap for the overly-dutiful Ned, whom he rightly believed would had commanded a small force himself if he was not injured. The end result of this plan would had been something along exchanging Ned for Tyrion (which would have the benefit of exchanging his dwarf son for a great lord) or at the very least having Robert call an end to the hostilities. Tywin could trust Robert being weak and indecisive, he had been so for years.

The second phase of the war, the true invasion of Riverlands, was forced on Tywin by the idiocy of everyone in King's Landing (and Littlefingers plotting). After Ned's coup and execution it was pretty clear that Ned's son would bring the North and his wife the Riverlands, at the very least, to the fight. Tywin very efficiently disposed of most Riverlands troops by using Edmure's compassion and inexperience against him. In this war Tywin's goal was probably to defeat North and Riverlands and hopefully force them back into the fold (which he did manage, though after some misfortunes and lucky strokes).

I don't think Tywin could had really predicted what the Baratheon brothers were doing. At least nominally Joffrey was the true king (something that Renly, by the way, agreed with. But Renly on the other hand had had his hand forced by Cersei to rebel). And Stannis, though considered a danger by Tywin (though not for his resources but for his personality and experiences), was in the end a fairly small fish. So Tywin was unlucky in misjudging the situation with the brothers but then again extremely lucky with Stannis killing his brother who was in a far superior position to oppose him.

And of course there were other things difficult to predict for Tywin, for example the ever cautious Walder Frey siding with Robb (bad) or the Ironborn foolishly attacking the North (lucky). All in all I think Tywin after the initial stages did not really have the matters in his control and he was just desperately trying to make the best of a pretty horrible situation (at the point where he was fighting both North and South), and for a large part due to no actions of his own managed to get out of the situation. The fact that even after all of these troubles Tywin remained the pre-eminent power in King's Landing post-war is more a proof of his skills than most of the things he made after the war soured for him. Though that positions proved short-lived.

I guess the point of my long-winded post is that when Tywin first took action he had a clear image in his mind of how he would execute the war and bring it to a quick end but luck was not, initially, on his side. He was more of a survivor than a winner at the end of the war.

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1 hour ago, Humble Maester said:

One must recall that initially, after Tyrion's kidnapping, Tywin was acting in a way in which he had plausible deniability (minor raids by Gregor and his men without banners), and the goal of that was to create a trap for the overly-dutiful Ned, whom he rightly believed would had commanded a small force himself if he was not injured. The end result of this plan would had been something along exchanging Ned for Tyrion (which would have the benefit of exchanging his dwarf son for a great lord) or at the very least having Robert call an end to the hostilities. Tywin could trust Robert being weak and indecisive, he had been so for years.

The second phase of the war, the true invasion of Riverlands, was forced on Tywin by the idiocy of everyone in King's Landing (and Littlefingers plotting). After Ned's coup and execution it was pretty clear that Ned's son would bring the North and his wife the Riverlands, at the very least, to the fight. Tywin very efficiently disposed of most Riverlands troops by using Edmure's compassion and inexperience against him. In this war Tywin's goal was probably to defeat North and Riverlands and hopefully force them back into the fold (which he did manage, though after some misfortunes and lucky strokes).

I don't think Tywin could had really predicted what the Baratheon brothers were doing. At least nominally Joffrey was the true king (something that Renly, by the way, agreed with. But Renly on the other hand had had his hand forced by Cersei to rebel). And Stannis, though considered a danger by Tywin (though not for his resources but for his personality and experiences), was in the end a fairly small fish. So Tywin was unlucky in misjudging the situation with the brothers but then again extremely lucky with Stannis killing his brother who was in a far superior position to oppose him.

And of course there were other things difficult to predict for Tywin, for example the ever cautious Walder Frey siding with Robb (bad) or the Ironborn foolishly attacking the North (lucky). All in all I think Tywin after the initial stages did not really have the matters in his control and he was just desperately trying to make the best of a pretty horrible situation (at the point where he was fighting both North and South), and for a large part due to no actions of his own managed to get out of the situation. The fact that even after all of these troubles Tywin remained the pre-eminent power in King's Landing post-war is more a proof of his skills than most of the things he made after the war soured for him. Though that positions proved short-lived.

I guess the point of my long-winded post is that when Tywin first took action he had a clear image in his mind of how he would execute the war and bring it to a quick end but luck was not, initially, on his side. He was more of a survivor than a winner at the end of the war.

Before the war broke out Renly had fled Kings Landing and before that Stannis had taken the Royal Fleet and went to Dragonstone. I would think Tywin would know that they would declare themselves kings and he knew war with Tully and Stark was coming. It seems like Tywin had the knowledge of this and still he thought war was the best. He even expected the Vale to join the Starks.

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1 minute ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Before the war broke out Renly had fled Kings Landing and before that Stannis had taken the Royal Fleet and went to Dragonstone. I would think Tywin would know that they would declare themselves kings and he knew war with Tully and Stark was coming. It seems like Tywin had the knowledge of this and still he thought war was the best. He even expected the Vale to join the Starks.

Well there is a clear distinction between exiting the scene and isolating one's self (which is an option Tywin could had thought the Baratheon brothers were taking, especially if we assume that he did not consider 1) illegitimacy of Joffrey and what that would mean to Stannis, and 2)  Cersei forcing Renly into a proactive stance; two things he might not had known about) and actively planning to resist him. One reason I think that Tywin didn't think that the Baratheon brothers, especially Renly, were going to act was exactly because he acted as he did. If he thought he was fighting a Stormlands-Reach alliance he would probably had acted differently, no? As his chances of winning would had been meager. So, in short, I don't think he foresee that both of the Baratheon brothers would rebel against King's Landing, especially Renly. Stannis was irrelevant until he killed his brother.

And also as I stated after the initial phase (when Robert was still alive) the things quickly got out of Tywin's hands. I don't think he ever foresee the War of the Five Kings coming (as that was a combination of a lot of events Tywin had no control over or could not had easily anticipated).

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Tywin was ready to strike. As soon as he learned of Catelyn's abduction of Tyrion, Jaime ambushed Eddard, and then Varys began hearing ominous whispers from the west, and freeriders answer sellswords began flocking to Casterly Rock. Jaime returned to the Westerlands and led a host to the Golden Tooth as Gregor began raiding the Riverlands to draw out Eddard. I think he expected Cersei to off Robert, and with Eddard as hostage, he expected to force a peace with Riverrun and Winterfell, giving Tywin time to deal with Stannis and Renly. But Joffrey had Ned's head, and Robb struck west. With Storm's End and Highgarden united for Renly, Tywin abandoned Cersei and Joffrey to save his lands in the west. Tywin only turn back to save his daughter and grandson after Petyr brokered the Tyrell-Lannister alliance. 

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