What if Tywin was killed during the WOT5K?

[shardofNarsil]

Lets say Tywin is killed either by Robb in the field or by Mel's shadowbaby, or by Arya's wish ,how would the WOT5K have turned out ?

[Good Guy Garlan]

It really depends when he dies. 

Like, say Arya names Tywin first instead of that nobody. Tywin's death coupled with the massive defeat at Oxcross sends shockwaves through the army. Kevan has a hard time convincing the western lords to stay instead of leaving to protect their lands from Robb's forces. If the Lannisters seem fucked enough, maybe even Balon reconsiders Theon's idea of raiding the West instead of the North, in which case Winterfell doesn't fall, Robb never marries Jeyne and instead remains on the Westerlands longer. With the Lannister army cut off from King's Landing, Stannis takes the city and burns Tyrion, Cersei and Joffrey. The Tyrells don't join the sinking ship of the Lannister cause, but they hate Stannis too. Robb eventually bends the knee because Stannis has Sansa as a hostage. 

[Ser Loras The Gay]

7 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

It really depends when he dies. 

Like, say Arya names Tywin first instead of that nobody. Tywin's death coupled with the massive defeat at Oxcross sends shockwaves through the army. Kevan has a hard time convincing the western lords to stay instead of leaving to protect their lands from Robb's forces. If the Lannisters seem fucked enough, maybe even Balon reconsiders Theon's idea of raiding the West instead of the North, in which case Winterfell doesn't fall, Robb never marries Jeyne and instead remains on the Westerlands longer. With the Lannister army cut off from King's Landing, Stannis takes the city and burns Tyrion, Cersei and Joffrey. The Tyrells don't join the sinking ship of the Lannister cause, but they hate Stannis too. Robb eventually bends the knee because Stannis has Sansa as a hostage. 

/\ this. /thread.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

41 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

It really depends when he dies. 

Like, say Arya names Tywin first instead of that nobody. Tywin's death coupled with the massive defeat at Oxcross sends shockwaves through the army. Kevan has a hard time convincing the western lords to stay instead of leaving to protect their lands from Robb's forces. If the Lannisters seem fucked enough, maybe even Balon reconsiders Theon's idea of raiding the West instead of the North, in which case Winterfell doesn't fall, Robb never marries Jeyne and instead remains on the Westerlands longer. With the Lannister army cut off from King's Landing, Stannis takes the city and burns Tyrion, Cersei and Joffrey. The Tyrells don't join the sinking ship of the Lannister cause, but they hate Stannis too. Robb eventually bends the knee because Stannis has Sansa as a hostage. 

Where would the Tyrells go from there? The Targaryens? 

[Good Guy Garlan]

1 hour ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Where would the Tyrells go from there? The Targaryens? 

Hard to say. I don't think they would just sit quiet and wait for Stannis to come for them (he would never forgive them for their little stunt with Renly), but their options are limited. 

Sure, Dany or Aegon would be their best choice, but in this time line with Tyrion dead and Euron not in power, who knows what would happen. Maybe Aegon gets infected with grayscale without Tyrion there to push the Stone Man off him, and maybe the fleet of Volantis wrecks Dany's forces at Meereen if Victarion never shows up. So who knows.

I'd say in the meantime they could ally themselves with the Ironborn. Theon marries Margaery, together Tyrells and Greyjoys take control of the Westerlands. Shame the Redwyne fleet doesn't get to combine with the Iron Fleet because Stannis still has one of the Redwyne twins hostage. 

Two wildcards, though: Baelish is with the Tyrells in this scenario, so maybe he orchestrates an alliance between the Reach and the Vale. Say, brokering a match between Margaery and Harry the Heir.

Another wildcard is Tommen, whose whereabouts would be unknown at this time.

[Frances Bean Corbray]

He was killed during the War Of The Five Kings.

That war's not over until THIS GUY says its over.

[White Ravens]

Space aliens. 

 

Space aliens are the answer to every What if? thread.

[1000th Lord Commander]

I agree that it really depends on when he dies. But I don't think killing Tywin would break the West. Kevan is still a capable commander in the field, Tyrion is a rising star and Jamie tries to be his father's son. The trebuchet is a nice touch from him, really.

But I think where they all fall down is the strategic view. Considering how close Tywin played things to his chest, any of those three could easily lead the armies in the field, but by the time they had picked up the pieces of the actual Game of Thrones, the wider strategy, they could all have easily been outplayed by Baelish or Doran or Varys, who are all playing the longer game.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

14 hours ago, shardofNarsil said:

Lets say Tywin is killed either by Robb in the field or by Mel's shadowbaby, or by Arya's wish ,how would the WOT5K have turned out ?

Stannis The Mannis the True King of Westeros takes King's Landing, wins the war, reunites Westeros and prepares for the Others.

[White Ravens]

3 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Aliens take King's Landing, win the war, reunite Westeros and prepare for the Others.

Fixed.  And only slightly less likely than your Stannis scenario. 

 

What if GRRM hadn't written the story the way he actually did?  We'll never know, and whatever we come up with will not likely be an improvement.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I'm not sure too much would have changed.

It all comes down to Mace Tyrell, especially if Tyrion still sends LF to the Reach.  If Mace decides that Stannis cannot be king, then the only thing he can do to stop that is attack him before he takes KL.  If Mace decides that with Renly and Tywin dead that Stannis is going to win then he would sit back and try to remain as strong as possible, or even try to finish off the Westerlands somehow like Balons father did at the end of Roberts Rebellion.

[The Mountain That Flies]

The main things Tywin dying earlier (no matter when it occurred) would impact are the Red Wedding, Sansa's fate, and the actions of Oberyn Martell.

Tyrion sent Littlefinger to bring the Tyrells into the fold based on Margaery marrying Joffrey, and if his dad had die during earlier this would have been an even more necessary move. From Mace's perspective his influence would now be even stronger (he could theoretically become Joffrey's Hand), so the alliance still make sense. The Battle of the Blackwater stays more of less the same, and so would Joffrey eventually being poisoned. Tyrion would still be accused, and I'll come back to how that would turn out.

However, without Tywin to back them up, Walker Frey and Rose Bolton may not have been willing to openly turn on the Starks. They likely would have continued Roose's actions up to that point, which is to say weakening their Northern and Riverland allies whilst keeping their strength intact. Robb would have made it home to deal with the Ironborn (whose actions would not change because Balon is an insane idiot), but Robb would have likely been stuck there and would not have had much of a path forward. Arya may have well been reunited with her family via ransom.

Sansa likely would have gotten snatched up by the Tyrells, since no one but Tywin could have forced Tyrion into marrying her. At that point they have a solid bargaianing chip over Robb, who with Arya back and his other sister a bit more secure could have been talked into bending the knee once Joffrey was dead.

Maybe Tyrion's trial takes the same steps, but without Tywin to hold her in check Cersei could have just had Tyrion killed in his cell. Oberyn might not have come to town at all since at that point it's just the Mountain he wants. That's really hard to say for certain though, since the Martell plan is still very mysterious.