Will the Real Varys Please Stand Up?

[Dorian Martell's son]

29 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

See, this is where the theory dies for me. Varys stated motives are totally at odds with his tactics. Even a hardcore, utilitarian, ends-always-justify-means type has to recognize the inconsistency in wanting to put a perfect prince on the throne "for the children" by systematically mutilating and murdering child spies, instigating war(s) which will cause the deaths of thousands of children and the homelessness of more, and undermining the stability of the very prince he wants to crown. Something has to be worth it for Varys, and I don't think it's just a vague ideology about the pauper prince.

Are you familiar with the phrase "you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs?"
using tongueless children for his plot is not out of the realm of possibility. And where does it say he murders his child spies? I seem to remember a washerwoman who does not speak to tyrion in Illyrio's manse. This would be where the child spies go after they grow up. 
Now as for instigating wars? the realm was stable, and people do not accept a new leader is everything is going well. Jon Arryn ruled the realm in a just manner. He kept the king's peace  and pacified Dorne. For (f)Aegon to rule, people have to be at rock bottom. and the war in the riverlands would do just that. 
 

[velo-knight]

3 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Are you familiar with the phrase "you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs?"

Having been born yesterday, I'm totally unfamiliar with it. I don't see anything here that addresses my point, which, to put it in similarly glib terms, is that if you're breaking eggs while claiming to be a vegan, you're lying about being a vegan.

3 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

using tongueless children for his plot is not out of the realm of possibility. And where does it say he murders his child spies? I seem to remember a washerwoman who does not speak to tyrion in Illyrio's manse. This would be where the child spies go after they grow up. 

Fair enough, he only mutilates his child spies; the other dead children are killed in his wars.

3 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Now as for instigating wars? the realm was stable, and people do not accept a new leader is everything is going well. Jon Arryn ruled the realm in a just manner. He kept the king's peace  and pacified Dorne. For (f)Aegon to rule, people have to be at rock bottom. and the war in the riverlands would do just that. 
 

You're missing the part where he helped (possibly greatly helped) instigate Robert's Rebellion by inflaming tensions between Aerys and Rhaegar and Aerys and his lords. Given that it's unlikely they wanted to place their perfect prince on the throne so young, he helped set up a less stable dynasty in Robert (stealing the purse), destabilized that dynasty even further, and then in comes Aegon, to sell the purse back.

[Dorian Martell's son]

12 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Having been born yesterday, I'm totally unfamiliar with it. I don't see anything here that addresses my point, which, to put it in similarly glib terms, is that if you're breaking eggs while claiming to be a vegan, you're lying about being a vegan.

I would advise a few moar days of life before you start making connections between varys and veganism.  

21 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Fair enough, he only mutilates his child spies; the other dead children are killed in his wars.

I am sure that soon you will also be familiar with the phrase "All is fair in love and war" 

22 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

You're missing the part where he helped (possibly greatly helped) instigate Robert's Rebellion by inflaming tensions between Aerys and Rhaegar and Aerys and his lords. Given that it's unlikely they wanted to place their perfect prince on the throne so young, he helped set up a less stable dynasty in Robert (stealing the purse), destabilized that dynasty even further, and then in comes Aegon, to sell the purse back.

He didn't instigate anything.  He did his job, loyally, telling the king about possible plots against him and the realm, and when the king and the prince died, he worked to eventually restore their heir to power.  
Setting up bob by killing aerys only to set up his grandson seems a tad too complex, but you will learn that one when you have more than a week of life under your belt 

[The Hidden Dragon]

Velo-Knight, the one thing I wonder about is when Varys refers to "for the children" is he referring to all the children of the world, in general, or is he referring to, in an inner monologue way, some specific children?  We don't know.

On instigating Robert's Rebellion, I don't see it that way.  There certainly were many factors that were bubbling about, which included the deteriorating relationship between Rhaegar and Aerys, but I don't think (and could certainly be wrong) that Varys was the one who caused Brandon Stark to charge headlong into KL demanding for Rhaegar.  And I don't think Varys was whispering in Aerys' ear to roast Rickard Stark, or suggesting that they demand Jon Arryn bring Aerys the heads of Robert and Ned.  Those particular acts were far more important in causing Robert's Rebellion.

[The Hidden Dragon]

The thing about Varys that always made me wonder is how in the hell did Aerys ever hear of him?  Who told Aerys about Varys and why? Varys was a thief in Esso's while Aerys was refusing to leave the Red Keep. It seems strange to me that Aerys, on his own, would ever hear about Varys.

[velo-knight]

 

25 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I would advise a few moar days of life before you start making connections between varys and veganism.  

I am sure that soon you will also be familiar with the phrase "All is fair in love and war" 

I seem to have started a fight with my sarcastic reply. I wasn't sure if your original comment was either condescending or jovial, and thought a sarcastic-but-jovial response was best. Obviously, it was not, and I apologize.

On the actual merits of the argument: the point is, Varys isn't just acting ruthlessly in advance of a goal, his methods are themselves inconsistent with that goal. We can argue by analogy and aphorism all day long, but the truth remains that Varys doesn't seem to care about "the children" or the realm or good governance unless it's to the benefit of his Aegon - which suggests Aegon has some other meaning to Varys.

9 minutes ago, The Hidden Dragon said:

Velo-Knight, the one thing I wonder about is when Varys refers to "for the children" is he referring to all the children of the world, in general, or is he referring to, in an inner monologue way, some specific children?  We don't know.

Good point. In that case, I tend again to think that he has some familial tie to Aegon, Illyrio, Serra, or some other member of the plot, and those children are the ones he's most concerned with.

9 minutes ago, The Hidden Dragon said:

On instigating Robert's Rebellion, I don't see it that way.  There certainly were many factors that were bubbling about, which included the deteriorating relationship between Rhaegar and Aerys, but I don't think (and could certainly be wrong) that Varys was the one who caused Brandon Stark to charge headlong into KL demanding for Rhaegar.  And I don't think Varys was whispering in Aerys' ear to roast Rickard Stark, or suggesting that they demand Jon Arryn bring Aerys the heads of Robert and Ned.  Those particular acts were far more important in causing Robert's Rebellion.

25 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

He didn't instigate anything.  He did his job, loyally, telling the king about possible plots against him and the realm, and when the king and the prince died, he worked to eventually restore their heir to power.  
Setting up bob by killing aerys only to set up his grandson seems a tad too complex, but you will learn that one when you have more than a week of life under your belt 

I think Littlefinger is instructive here as an example: the tensions that erupted into the Wot5K already existed under the surface, he just needed to use a little push now and again, a bit of manipulation, a bit of poison, some well-placed lies and it was accomplished. I think Varys realized there was a paranoid, aloof monarch in Westeros who could be easily driven off the cliff - and the quote from Ser Barristan, an eyewitness, certainly supports that.

There are a number of confusing or unknown points in the (pre) Rebellion where Varys could've been involved: he could have helped further rift between Aerys and any number of people, including Tywin and Rhaegar; he almost certainly informed Aerys of the Tourney at Harrenhal and may have convinced Aerys to attend; he may have discovered the true identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree and informed Aerys; and since we still have no idea what or how exactly Rhaegar and Lyanna wound up together, or why they never communicated with the outside world, he could've played a significant part in it at really any point. Doing any or all of these would've helped set in motion the events without leaving a trace - so we have no way of knowing how much of the Rebellion was really inevitable at all.

I don't know why the "Varys was loyal at that point" argument is so common. For one thing, he has no clear motive for loyalty at all, and has obviously no problems with committing treason for his own purposes. It's clear from the events of the novels that Varys is a terrifyingly patient and capable person, who can appear to give loyal advice while knowing that it will backfire - it's not like he actually thought assassinating Daenerys in AGoT would be good for Robert! His Kevan monologue shows a great deal of sensitivity to appearances, yet if he was the spymaster who unveiled Harrenhal, shouldn't he have known what the PR effect of the disgusting, prematurely aged Aerys would have on the lords who had rarely if ever seen him? Finally, why would George go to such effort to tell us about how Varys and Illyrio made their living as youngsters - stealing things, then selling them back - if that wasn't somehow pertinent to the plot? On top of all this, we have a direct POV quote that suggests that Aerys paranoia got worse, not better, thanks to Varys: if Varys was really so loyal, shouldn't have have realized that he should try and avoid unnecessarily stoking that fear? There's really no reason to think Varys is a Targaryen loyalist at all.

Obviously, I don't believe that Aegon is the real Aegon.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Is it possible that Varys might have urged Aerys not to open the gate for Tywin because he wanted Robert to win, and he wasn't sure whom Tywin would support? Or maybe that he hoped Robert, Tywin, and Targaryen loyalists would all fight each other, further weakening the Seven Kingdoms and the Iron Throne? 

[velo-knight]

23 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Is it possible that Varys might have urged Aerys not to open the gate for Tywin because he wanted Robert to win, and he wasn't sure whom Tywin would support? Or maybe that he hoped Robert, Tywin, and Targaryen loyalists would all fight each other, further weakening the Seven Kingdoms and the Iron Throne? 

My pet theory: because he knew it didn't matter. Varys is skilled enough to know how to advise a thing and then lose the argument, no? Pycelle can openly advocate for Tywin, since he's Tywin's creature, but if Varys wants to stay on he needs to be seen as truly loyal to the Iron Throne, and by advocating keeping the doors closed and allowing himself to be out-argued, he can remove any suspicion that he's disloyal to his office.

[John Suburbs]

It doesn't appear that Varys is a very good master whisperer either. He's missed an awful lot of important stuff, starting with Jon Snow. Rhaegar and Lyanna are alone together for months at a time and their child would majorly complicate whatever goal he is trying to achieve in King's Landing, whether he's a BF or a Targ or something else. Then Ned comes back and says Lyanna is dead, so Varys must have let out a deep sigh that she wasn't with child, and then Ned turns up at Winterfell with a baby boy and Varys never suspects a thing?

Another bungle was with Illyrio in the Red Keep:

Quote

"Littlefinger  ... the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing."

This is after he acknowledges that the wolf and the lion will be at each other's throats, which is the direct result of the lie that LF told Cat right in front of Varys, and Varys either doesn't know it was a lie or is completely clueless that LF is the one manipulating the war that Illyrio is so desperate to delay? His little birds can get him any tidbit of information he desires and he's completely in the dark as to what LF is up to? And yet his chief concern is Ned finding out about Robert's bastards and the incest, as if he thinks this is the actual reason Jon Arryn was killed, plus he seems to be laboring under the assumption it was Jaime and Cersei who tried to kill Bran.

 

[Dorian Martell's son]

7 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I seem to have started a fight with my sarcastic reply. I wasn't sure if your original comment was either condescending or jovial, and thought a sarcastic-but-jovial response was best. Obviously, it was not, and I apologize.

you don't need to apologize, I was just continuing the sarcasm. 

8 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

On the actual merits of the argument: the point is, Varys isn't just acting ruthlessly in advance of a goal, his methods are themselves inconsistent with that goal. We can argue by analogy and aphorism all day long, but the truth remains that Varys doesn't seem to care about "the children" or the realm or good governance unless it's to the benefit of his Aegon - which suggests Aegon has some other meaning to Varys.

His methods, while not necessarily perfectly congruent with his stated goal, remember that he has a penchant for stretching the truth. For many, the king and the realm are one in the same. So he is technically not lying when he says he is working for the benefit of realm by putting (f)Aegon on the iron throne 

14 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I think Littlefinger is instructive here as an example: the tensions that erupted into the Wot5K already existed under the surface, he just needed to use a little push now and again, a bit of manipulation, a bit of poison, some well-placed lies and it was accomplished. I think Varys realized there was a paranoid, aloof monarch in Westeros who could be easily driven off the cliff - and the quote from Ser Barristan, an eyewitness, certainly supports that.

There will always be tensions involving people in power, no matter how peaceful the realm is at the time. Just look at Tytos Lannister and what his vassals tried to do. Also, Barristan is a fool when it comes to courtly intrigue. It is the simplest non-thinking statement to blame a foreigner for the mental ills of a king you serve. 

49 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

There are a number of confusing or unknown points in the (pre) Rebellion where Varys could've been involved: he could have helped further rift between Aerys and any number of people, including Tywin and Rhaegar; he almost certainly informed Aerys of the Tourney at Harrenhal and may have convinced Aerys to attend; he may have discovered the true identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree and informed Aerys; and since we still have no idea what or how exactly Rhaegar and Lyanna wound up together, or why they never communicated with the outside world, he could've played a significant part in it at really any point. Doing any or all of these would've helped set in motion the events without leaving a trace - so we have no way of knowing how much of the Rebellion was really inevitable at all.

while what you say could be true, there is nothing in the books that says anything remotely like that. Everything I have read says he just does his job, and he is extremely good at it, like uncovering the plot by his son to sideline him. Hence why Aerys went to Harrenhal. 

1 hour ago, velo-knight said:

I don't know why the "Varys was loyal at that point" argument is so common. 

It isn't common at all. It is why I love it. 

1 hour ago, velo-knight said:

For one thing, he has no clear motive for loyalty at all, and has obviously no problems with committing treason for his own purposes. It's clear from the events of the novels that Varys is a terrifyingly patient and capable person, who can appear to give loyal advice while knowing that it will backfire - it's not like he actually thought assassinating Daenerys in AGoT would be good for Robert! His Kevan monologue shows a great deal of sensitivity to appearances, yet if he was the spymaster who unveiled Harrenhal, shouldn't he have known what the PR effect of the disgusting, prematurely aged Aerys would have on the lords who had rarely if ever seen him? Finally, why would George go to such effort to tell us about how Varys and Illyrio made their living as youngsters - stealing things, then selling them back - if that wasn't somehow pertinent to the plot?

his motive for loyalty is a number of things. Wealth, power, respect and a love of the game.
As of the last book, Killing Dany was merely a ploy for Bob to focus on. At that point, Dany was just a pawn, like Sansa, and eventually after much suffering and hardship, she emerged stronger to rule over slaver's bay.
As for the harrenal bit,  That was years ago, and experience changes a person. At the time, his job was to be a spymaster, and he did it quite well. At the time, Aerys had not left the red keep in years. That was not his doing, and a king is supposed to have people who would look out for him, but the king loved lickspittles, so nobody would dare to tell him he needed to cut his hair or trim his nails. 
George gave us a backstory on Varys and Illyrio because it is relevant and we are shown why Illyrio is so wealthy and Varys is such an amazing spymaster. Varys and Illyrio have been working a plot to overthrow the king of westeros for well over a decade. that takes time, money and skill to pull off. So far it is working. 

1 hour ago, velo-knight said:

On top of all this, we have a direct POV quote that suggests that Aerys paranoia got worse, not better, thanks to Varys: if Varys was really so loyal, shouldn't have have realized that he should try and avoid unnecessarily stoking that fear? There's really no reason to think Varys is a Targaryen loyalist at all.

No, we have POV's that say his paranoia got worse. Again, blaming the foreigner, who was hired because he would have no loyalty outside the king, unlike every other highborn man or woman in westeros. Also, you are putting a modern morality on a novel with a high middle age setting. while I am sure you would act differently, Varys had one job and one boss. He isn't the cause of the  king's mental illness, nor is he responsible for making it worse. The King had been on a downward slide before Varys got to Westeros.  And there are plenty of reasons to think he is a loyalist. Namely working for nearly two decades to put his bosses heir on the throne. He had every chance to take the wealth he acquired and go back to Essos and live comfortably, but he stays. Don't forget he was the only voice that told the king to keep the gates barred to Tywin. Aerys ignored him and we all know the rest of the story. 

1 hour ago, velo-knight said:

Obviously, I don't believe that Aegon is the real Aegon.

Most folks here don't think he is either. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Is it possible that Varys might have urged Aerys not to open the gate for Tywin because he wanted Robert to win, and he wasn't sure whom Tywin would support? Or maybe that he hoped Robert, Tywin, and Targaryen loyalists would all fight each other, further weakening the Seven Kingdoms and the Iron Throne? 

That is roundabout. If he kept the gate barred, the king could have survived a siege and there would be no guarantee that Bob would win.  

[Lost Melnibonean]

11 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

That is roundabout. If he kept the gate barred, the king could have survived a siege and there would be no guarantee that Bob would win.  

Sorry, I should have been more clear... Perhaps Varys had been in clandestine communication with Robert, and perhaps he had suspected that Tywin might indeed support Aerys, then perhaps he might have urged to Aerys to keep the gates closed against Tywin? 

[Dorian Martell's son]

7 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Sorry, I should have been more clear... Perhaps Varys had been in clandestine communication with Robert, and perhaps he had suspected that Tywin might indeed support Aerys, then perhaps he might have urged to Aerys to keep the gates closed against Tywin? 

Was there any indication of communication? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Was there any indication of communication? 

I don't think so. If you believe Varys is Doran's friend in King's Landing,  we might have a pattern.

[Dorian Martell's son]

2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't think so. If you believe Varys is Doran's friend in King's Landing,  we might have a pattern.

I don't think Varys is the friend in court, just because Doran is quite skeptical of Joncon's letter 

[Good Guy Garlan]

46 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

It doesn't appear that Varys is a very good master whisperer either. He's missed an awful lot of important stuff, starting with Jon Snow. Rhaegar and Lyanna are alone together for months at a time and their child would majorly complicate whatever goal he is trying to achieve in King's Landing, whether he's a BF or a Targ or something else. Then Ned comes back and says Lyanna is dead, so Varys must have let out a deep sigh that she wasn't with child, and then Ned turns up at Winterfell with a baby boy and Varys never suspects a thing?

Another bungle was with Illyrio in the Red Keep:

This is after he acknowledges that the wolf and the lion will be at each other's throats, which is the direct result of the lie that LF told Cat right in front of Varys, and Varys either doesn't know it was a lie or is completely clueless that LF is the one manipulating the war that Illyrio is so desperate to delay? His little birds can get him any tidbit of information he desires and he's completely in the dark as to what LF is up to? And yet his chief concern is Ned finding out about Robert's bastards and the incest, as if he thinks this is the actual reason Jon Arryn was killed, plus he seems to be laboring under the assumption it was Jaime and Cersei who tried to kill Bran.

 

In Varys' defense (ugh), I think he does know LF is scheming a whole lot and kickstarting a war but he doesn't know what's his endgame. And to be fair neither do we, the readers. As for Jon Arryn's death, LF actually did a pretty good job of setting up the Lannisters and laying a trail of breadcrumbs leading to the incest. Varys isn't omniscient, something has to get pass him. I mean, Ned Stark of all people managed to fool him, after all. 

Now, in the topic of Varys supposedly serving the realm and whatnot, he's full of shit. If he really cared for the realm he wouldn't undermine Kevan's attempts of fixing Cersei's mess. Varys either knows he's lying but wants to make himself look good or he's trying to convince himself that he truly serves the realm. In any case, it's a lie. 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, velo-knight said:

See, this is where the theory dies for me. Varys stated motives are totally at odds with his tactics. Even a hardcore, utilitarian, ends-always-justify-means type has to recognize the inconsistency in wanting to put a perfect prince on the throne "for the children" by systematically mutilating and murdering child spies, instigating war(s) which will cause the deaths of thousands of children and the homelessness of more, and undermining the stability of the very prince he wants to crown. Something has to be worth it for Varys, and I don't think it's just a vague ideology about the pauper prince.

You should ask Adrian Veidt and Dr. Manhattan about that. Sometimes the end justifies the means even if you have to kill millions of people to accomplish it. I'm pretty sure Varys is in the same department.

And Varys does not murder his little birds. Where did you get that notion? Many apparently die in his service but nothing indicates he wants this. Maegor's tunnels are a dangerous working place, and the new birds certainly will have no experience with the environment. They learn their trade by doing it, and it seems that this is a rather risky business.

Varys also does not mutilate any children. The slavers (and Illyrio) do. Varys is just using them to his own ends. I'm not sure it is great fun working for Varys but it certainly might be a better life than what many of the slaves in the Free Cities have to endure.

And Varys did not create any wars we know of. He tried to postpone the War of the Five Kings (and nothing indicates he actually helped to cause it) and when he kills Kevan and Pycelle he ensures that his side is going to win in the coming struggle. There will be some sort of conflict between King Tommen and Prince Aegon and Varys favors one side over the other here, for obvious reasons.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

If the Blackfyre theory proves correct, Illyrio gets his son in the iron throne. It may be they are unconnected with Blackfyres or Bittersteels. Maybe only Varys is, etc. Only GRRM knows for certain. It is not even that important.  But whatever motivations Varys had a the beginnings had shifted from any blood relations or economic ambitions to a more ideological purpose. He believes that Westeros is moral and politically broken and a "perfect prince" is needed. Together with Illyrio they believe they have crafted that prince.  They are doomed to disappointment, or so I hope. Because the TPTWP cannot be designed in a controlled environment that doesn't allow room for personal development.

Varys' riddle pretty much answers this question for us. Power resides where men believe it does. Now, where is power residing in Westeros according to the belief of a majority of the people? With the Targaryens. That is pretty clear. Varys knows that only the Targaryen dynasty will be able to restore a lasting peace to the Realm. There might be capable Baratheon kings, too, and capable men serving them but under the new dynasty the Realm had begun to fracture as is made obvious by the War of the Five Kings and its aftermath, the feast of the crows.

That is the reason why Varys either saved Rhaegar's son or created an impostor to step in for the real Aegon. He knows the path to real and lasting power - and thus the foundation for lasting peace and change - lies with the Targaryen dynasty, regardless who the hell Aegon actually is.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys' riddle pretty much answers this question for us. Power resides where men believe it does. Now, where is power residing in Westeros according to the belief of a majority of the people? With the Targaryens. That is pretty clear. Varys knows that only the Targaryen dynasty will be able to restore a lasting peace to the Realm. There might be capable Baratheon kings, too, and capable men serving them but under the new dynasty the Realm had begun to fracture as is made obvious by the War of the Five Kings and its aftermath, the feast of the crows.

Dragons are just like atomic bombs. If any part of the realm is making a attempent of treason they simply drop a dragon there and problem solved. To maintain peace one needs power to do it. The Targs began to lose power when all the dragons died (Maesters conspiracy). But no house in the realm can outnumber all houses together, and fractions ought to happen. They need a dragon (or at least a representation of such power) on the Iron Throne, and Varys is trying to do exactly that.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Dragons are just like atomic bombs. If any part of the realm is making a attempent of treason they simply drop a dragon there and problem solved. To maintain peace one needs power to do it. The Targs began to lose power when all the dragons died (Maesters conspiracy). But no house in the realm can outnumber all houses together, and fractions ought to happen. They need a dragon (or at least a representation of such power) on the Iron Throne, and Varys is trying to do exactly that.

The dragons certainly helped. But even without the dragons the Targaryens have their semi-divine status, their inhuman beauty, their aloofness that sets them apart from 'lesser men'. The Baratheons all had none of that. Westeros had become accustomed to the rule of the Targaryens even after the dragons died. The troubles they got came mainly from their own ranks (i.e. the Blackfyres) not so much the lords of the Realm.

Thus we can be reasonably sure that a Targaryen returning to Westeros could, if he is successful, restore order and prosperity for a much longer period of time then men like Robert or Stannis could. Dragons would certainly help a lot with that but they are not necessary.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Thus we can be reasonably sure that a Targaryen returning to Westeros could, if he is successful, restore order and prosperity for a much longer period of time then men like Robert or Stannis could. Dragons would certainly help a lot with that but they are not necessary.

I agree. But realistic how many houses aside Martell are willing to turn with the targaryens again?