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Will the Real Varys Please Stand Up?


John Suburbs

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1 minute ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

I agree. But realistic how many houses aside Martell are willing to turn with the targaryens again?

Aegon will prove that half or more of the Realm will be willing. The Baratheons are effectively dead, old alliances are broken, and the common people were already looking back to the golden age of Aerys II as early as ACoK.

It is not just Dorne and some Stormlords that might declare for Aegon, it is also the Reach, the Crownlands, the Riverlands (especially the old Targaryen loyalists there who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident) and perhaps even the Vale. Even in the West might be men who resent Tywin and the way the Lannisters betrayed the King Aerys and his descendants. Now they can act if they want to.

In addition to all that we'll have the success of Aegon's actual campaign. Storm's End has never been taken, neither by siege nor by storm. Aegon is going to take it. That will send strong ripple effects throughout the Realm. Many people might right now essentially just look for a reason or a pretext or need a little nudge to decide to openly rebel against King Tommen. Aegon is going to give them that.

People want to believe that the Targaryens are coming back. It won't be difficult to convince them.

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2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon will prove that half or more of the Realm will be willing. The Baratheons are effectively dead, old alliances are broken, and the common people were already looking back to the golden age of Aerys II as early as ACoK.

It is not just Dorne and some Stormlords that might declare for Aegon, it is also the Reach, the Crownlands, the Riverlands (especially the old Targaryen loyalists there who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident) and perhaps even the Vale. Even in the West might be men who resent Tywin and the way the Lannisters betrayed the King Aerys and his descendants. Now they can act if they want to.

In addition to all that we'll have the success of Aegon's actual campaign. Storm's End has never been taken, neither by siege nor by storm. Aegon is going to take it. That will send strong ripple effects throughout the Realm. Many people might right now essentially just look for a reason or a pretext or need a little nudge to decide to openly rebel against King Tommen. Aegon is going to give them that.

People want to believe that the Targaryens are coming back. It won't be difficult to convince them.

Do you think it's possible that Aegon will gather more allies, gold and army than Dany? I mean, Dany can't go to Westeros right now, and maybe she's just going to begin her journey at the end of book 6 (or at least in the middle). In that amount of time, how much support do you think Aegon will have, to make a future alliance with Daenerys (or at least have bargain power with her)?

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27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You should ask Adrian Veidt and Dr. Manhattan about that. Sometimes the end justifies the means even if you have to kill millions of people to accomplish it. I'm pretty sure Varys is in the same department.

And Varys does not murder his little birds. Where did you get that notion? Many apparently die in his service but nothing indicates he wants this. Maegor's tunnels are a dangerous working place, and the new birds certainly will have no experience with the environment. They learn their trade by doing it, and it seems that this is a rather risky business.

Varys also does not mutilate any children. The slavers (and Illyrio) do. Varys is just using them to his own ends. I'm not sure it is great fun working for Varys but it certainly might be a better life than what many of the slaves in the Free Cities have to endure.

And Varys did not create any wars we know of. He tried to postpone the War of the Five Kings (and nothing indicates he actually helped to cause it) and when he kills Kevan and Pycelle he ensures that his side is going to win in the coming struggle. There will be some sort of conflict between King Tommen and Prince Aegon and Varys favors one side over the other here, for obvious reasons.

Varys' riddle pretty much answers this question for us. Power resides where men believe it does. Now, where is power residing in Westeros according to the belief of a majority of the people? With the Targaryens. That is pretty clear. Varys knows that only the Targaryen dynasty will be able to restore a lasting peace to the Realm. There might be capable Baratheon kings, too, and capable men serving them but under the new dynasty the Realm had begun to fracture as is made obvious by the War of the Five Kings and its aftermath, the feast of the crows.

That is the reason why Varys either saved Rhaegar's son or created an impostor to step in for the real Aegon. He knows the path to real and lasting power - and thus the foundation for lasting peace and change - lies with the Targaryen dynasty, regardless who the hell Aegon actually is.

If Varys or Daenerys ever need a spokesman, they would find no better candidate.  

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12 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

I agree. But realistic how many houses aside Martell are willing to turn with the targaryens again?

Quite a few, I'd think. Even midway through the story, with no plausible Targaryen candidate in sight, you have your Mathis Rowans and plenty others who bend the knee while barely concealing their disgust at the Baratheon rule.

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Varys or Daenerys ever need a spokesman, they would find no better candidate.  

Amen. I can't say I agree with his analysis, but I certainly can't disprove the argument. It will be fun to see how the plot develops.

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14 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Do you think it's possible that Aegon will gather more allies, gold and army than Dany? I mean, Dany can't go to Westeros right now, and maybe she's just going to begin her journey at the end of book 6 (or at least in the middle). In that amount of time, how much support do you think Aegon will have, to make a future alliance with Daenerys (or at least have bargain power with her)?

Depending what happens to Stannis and Euron Aegon could technically have the entire Realm by then. I doubt that this is happening since Euron is definitely there to stay and possibly able to do a lot of damage. But he could win the support of many houses and also get the (formal) allegiance of many more (who are unable to actually support him with troop).

Aegon should especially be able to win the allegiance of all the secret Targaryen loyalists - Dorne, the Crownlanders, Riverlords, Reach lords, wherever they are - leaving essentially none of them for Dany unless they make common cause (which is quite unlikely). Dany might find herself in the paradoxical situation that her future allies in Westeros might be found amongst those enemies of Aegon (and thus House Targaryen) who survive his rise to power.

17 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Amen. I can't say I agree with his analysis, but I certainly can't disprove the argument. It will be fun to see how the plot develops.

You don't think there are a lot of hints in the text indicating that many people still support the Targaryens? We've got the old man in the Riverlands from ACoK who idolizes Aerys, we have the Crackclaw Point people, the sparrows looking for a savior, Queen Rhaella's former suitor - Ser Bonifer Hasty - a devout follower of the Seven and castellan of Harrenhal (all hints that the sparrows and the Faith will lead Westeros to Aegon). Hell, we even have people drinking on Dany's health in Oldtown and whores and sailors in White Harbor gossiping and wishing for a return of the Targaryens (especially Aegon).

Varys might strengthen that sentiment, especially in KL (where he my have been the one behind that mummer's play about the arrogant lions being devoured by a dragon hatching from an egg - but it would be even more interesting if he actually wasn't) but he clearly backs the dragon (or has chosen to create a dragon) because he thinks a dragon has the best chance to accomplish what he wants him to do.

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1 hour ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

I agree. But realistic how many houses aside Martell are willing to turn with the targaryens again?

According to Robert at the start of AGOT, a good number of them.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

You don't think there are a lot of hints in the text indicating that many people still support the Targaryens? We've got the old man in the Riverlands from ACoK who idolizes Aerys, we have the Crackclaw Point people, the sparrows looking for a savior, Queen Rhaella's former suitor - Ser Bonifer Hasty - a devout follower of the Seven and castellan of Harrenhal (all hints that the sparrows and the Faith will lead Westeros to Aegon). Hell, we even have people drinking on Dany's health in Oldtown and whores and sailors in White Harbor gossiping and wishing for a return of the Targaryens (especially Aegon).

I was referring to the Varys modus operandi and whether his methods say something about his goals. I'm not convinced he's a Dr. Manhattan style figure, but I'm certainly open to it and look forward to finding out more. I'm not sure I'm convinced by the Blackfyre theory, but I think the basic idea that he has some additional kinship to Aegon makes his behavior much more believable.

I absolutely agree that there are tons of Targ sympathizers in Westeros, and that the Targaryens possess a legitimacy the Baratheons simply don't, and I even think we're under-shown the amount of Targaryen sympathy in Westeros ca. 298 AC because so many primary POVs  either have little memory of the Rebellion, fought on the side of the Rebels, or both. Aegon's extremely well-positioned to scoop them up, too.

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20 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I was referring to the Varys modus operandi and whether his methods say something about his goals. I'm not convinced he's a Dr. Manhattan style figure, but I'm certainly open to it and look forward to finding out more. I'm not sure I'm convinced by the Blackfyre theory, but I think the basic idea that he has some additional kinship to Aegon makes his behavior much more believable.

Adrian Veidt, not Dr. Manhattan. Dr. Manhattan was the blue guy who saw his own future and was emotionally detached. Adrian Veidt was the smartest man on the planet who concluded that to prevent a nuclear holocaust he had to trick humanity into believing there is an outside threat. To do that convincingly millions of people had to be killed.

Dr. Manhattan just understood that this was actually a pretty good move.

Now, Varys may be one of the smartest people in Westeros, but he clearly doesn't have has elaborate a goal as world peace.

The analogy I was trying to make is that Varys can still be an idealist working to better the society he lives in (and feels responsible for) without keeping clean hands.

And, yeah, there has to be some reason why Varys cares about Westeros in the first place (and not Essos, specifically Lys, Myr, Pentos, etc. where he spent most of his childhood and youth) as well as why he is backing Aegon. Some sort of kinship, either on the Targaryen or the Blackfyre side of the family (and on the right or the wrong side of the blanket) is a very good explanation for this.

Varys chose to serve a mad king as spy master. You don't do this unless you feel you have to. Varys may be very good at what he does but every single meeting with Aerys had the very high risk that you would be cooked alive an hour later. I'm sure Varys did a lot to please Aerys but madmen do not act rationally.

20 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I absolutely agree that there are tons of Targ sympathizers in Westeros, and that the Targaryens possess a legitimacy the Baratheons simply don't, and I even think we're under-shown the amount of Targaryen sympathy in Westeros ca. 298 AC because so many primary POVs  either have little memory of the Rebellion, fought on the side of the Rebels, or both. Aegon's extremely well-positioned to scoop them up, too.

That is a very important point. You are right that most POVs were either rebels themselves, or closely affiliated to the rebels (because they are their children). And while the Lannister POVs give a little bit of insight into Targaryen loyalist thinking that is, of course, also distorted by outcome of the Tywin/Jaime-Aerys relationship.

But I think George really is intending to surprise us with the suddenness and completeness how lords and men from the entire Realm - from Dorne to the Wall, basically - will declare for and join Aegon. He gave us some clues that there are indeed some Targaryen loyalists left and now with the Baratheon alliance gone there is going to be a very strong backlash, even from among those houses/people who originally supported Robert during the Rebellion.

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16 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Also contrary to Littlefinger, Varys doesn't straight up lie (or not often), just doesn't tell the full truth.

More along the lines of be vague and let people jump to wrong conclusions but don't correct them.

8 hours ago, The Hidden Dragon said:

Velo-Knight, the one thing I wonder about is when Varys refers to "for the children" is he referring to all the children of the world, in general, or is he referring to, in an inner monologue way, some specific children?  We don't know.

On instigating Robert's Rebellion, I don't see it that way.  There certainly were many factors that were bubbling about, which included the deteriorating relationship between Rhaegar and Aerys, but I don't think (and could certainly be wrong) that Varys was the one who caused Brandon Stark to charge headlong into KL demanding for Rhaegar.  And I don't think Varys was whispering in Aerys' ear to roast Rickard Stark, or suggesting that they demand Jon Arryn bring Aerys the heads of Robert and Ned.  Those particular acts were far more important in causing Robert's Rebellion.

Pure Tinfoil: I wonder if he could be referring to the Children of the Forest...

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Is it possible that Varys might have urged Aerys not to open the gate for Tywin because he wanted Robert to win, and he wasn't sure whom Tywin would support? Or maybe that he hoped Robert, Tywin, and Targaryen loyalists would all fight each other, further weakening the Seven Kingdoms and the Iron Throne? 

It's possible but unlikely the rift between Tywin and Aerys was too big IMO. Granted it might have gone differently if Rhaegar had survived.

 

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6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It doesn't appear that Varys is a very good master whisperer either. He's missed an awful lot of important stuff, starting with Jon Snow. Rhaegar and Lyanna are alone together for months at a time and their child would majorly complicate whatever goal he is trying to achieve in King's Landing, whether he's a BF or a Targ or something else. Then Ned comes back and says Lyanna is dead, so Varys must have let out a deep sigh that she wasn't with child, and then Ned turns up at Winterfell with a baby boy and Varys never suspects a thing?

Another bungle was with Illyrio in the Red Keep:

This is after he acknowledges that the wolf and the lion will be at each other's throats, which is the direct result of the lie that LF told Cat right in front of Varys, and Varys either doesn't know it was a lie or is completely clueless that LF is the one manipulating the war that Illyrio is so desperate to delay? His little birds can get him any tidbit of information he desires and he's completely in the dark as to what LF is up to? And yet his chief concern is Ned finding out about Robert's bastards and the incest, as if he thinks this is the actual reason Jon Arryn was killed, plus he seems to be laboring under the assumption it was Jaime and Cersei who tried to kill Bran.


I don't think Varys is ignorant that Littlefinger is trying to encourage conflict between the Starks and Lannisters, but he's ignorant as to why, and to how far Littlefinger's gone in service of that aim (i.e. killing Jon Arryn).

The reason he's concerned about Ned finding out about the incest is that once Ned finds out, there will be war. And once that happens it will be very difficult to stop war. He can't kill Ned - two Hands dying in short succession, both while investigating Robert's bastards, merely guarantees that someone else will investigate and find the truth. Possibly even Robert himself. And co-opting Ned doesn't seem to be an option either:

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"What would you have me do?" asked the torchbearer, a stout man in a leather half cape. Even in heavy boots, his feet seemed to glide soundlessly over the ground. A round scarred face and a stubble of dark beard showed under his steel cap, and he wore mail over boiled leather, and a dirk and shortsword at his belt. It seemed to Arya there was something oddly familiar about him.
"If one Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." He was no one Arya had ever seen before, she was certain of it. Grossly fat, yet he seemed to walk lightly, carrying his weight on the balls of his feet as a water dancer might. His rings glimmered in the torchlight, red-gold and pale silver, crusted with rubies, sapphires, slitted yellow tiger eyes. Every finger wore a ring; some had two.
"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall.

Sidebar: look at that description of Varys. A scarred, stubbly face. Now consider the following: (1) he normally wears make-up, which would hide any facial scars; (2) being a eunuch, he shouldn't be able to grow any facial hair at all. Now it's possible that the scars and the stubble are themselves make-up, but I wonder. Varys has plenty of other disguises that he could use to sneak into the tunnels, and that's assuming he needs to sneak into them at all. Isn't there a secret entrance in his own bedroom? More importantly, Varys is with Illyrio, and has no need to hide his true appearance. Perhaps this is the real Varys: scars on his face, and enough testerone to grow a beard pretty quick if he needs to.

Second sidebar: I know this has been said before, and it sort of contradicts the previous sidebar, but I do still like the idea that Illyrio is glamoured as a big fat fatty. He's oddly light on his feet, and he's got all these rings and the big ludicrous beard.

Anyway, back to the point re: Varys. He sees that Littlefinger is trying to engineer conflict between the Starks and the Lannisters - actually, we don't even know that he sees that, we know that he sees that Littlefinger drops Tyrion in the shit for some reason. Or maybe - does Varys even know that Littlefinger's lying about the knife? Would he be aware of how people were betting that day?

Anyway, assume Varys thinks that Littlefinger is up to something, and that it involves creating conflict with the Starks and the Lannisters, but he doesn't know what or why. Probably he gets a bigger inkling after Ned Stark's execution. But he's only human, and Littlefinger, having no obvious master to serve and no apparent goal, and being savvy enough to not get caught by Varys's little birds, manages to fly under his radar until it's too late.

As for him not asking questions about Ned and the whole Tower of Joy thing, yes, I think that's a bit of a plot hole maybe. Nobody seems to have interrogated closely what happened - in other words, nobody was at all curious about exactly what they just fought that massive war for. The king, the small council, the high lords, the maesters, the smallfolk - apparently nobody wants to know. More likely GRRM is deliberately withholding info but it does leave a hole.

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I'm glad I came across this. I had never considered varys may not be a eunuch. I am not saying there is a bunch of evidence to support it, but it's an intriguing idea to entertain and would be awesome if it were true. As for reasons why, if he is a secret targ it would be a great way to conceal his identity, also if his identity was found out he'd be viewed as less as a threat because he's impotent. Makes me think of the Roman ruler that they pretended was mentally disabled/had a speech impediment (something like this) so he wouldn't be viewed as a threat and murdered.

Personally, I've always viewed varys as a good guy. So when people ask WIIFM for varys, I truly believe helping the realm is reward enough. Now, that doesnt mean he's not trying to put a relative on the throne, but if he is I believe it's because he genuinely believes it will help the realm.

I also don't see his methodology being as sinister as previously suggested. 

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The many faces of

VARYS THE SPIDER

|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|

1. Lord Varys, the Master of Whisperers

I've been at this all day so forgive me if I'm going to skip gathering up shitloads of quotes here. The point is that the description we have for Varys - plump, stout, powdered face and hands, soft hands, effeminate, high-pitched voice, no dick, dressed in "silk and velvet and the richest damasks" and smelling of lilacs and other perfumes - this is as much a persona as, say:

2. Rugen, chief undergaoler of the black cells

 

When Arya sees Varys in AGOT, he's...

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...a stout man in a leather half cape. Even in heavy boots, his feet seemed to glide soundlessly over the ground. A round scarred face and a stubble of dark beard showed under his steel cap, and he wore mail over boiled leather, and a dirk and shortsword at his belt. It seemed to Arya there was something oddly familiar about him.

George laying it on a bit thick at the end there. And bear in mind the scars, which no-one else ever mentions, could easily be hidden under all that makeup.

Later, Ned meets him in the black cells:

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...this gaoler was stouter, shorter, though he wore the same leather half cape and spiked steel cap. "Drink, Lord Eddard." He thrust a wineskin into Ned's hands.
The voice was strangely familiar, yet it took Ned Stark a moment to place it. "Varys?" he said groggily when it came. He touched the man's face. "I'm not … not dreaming this. You're here." The eunuch's plump cheeks were covered with a dark stubble of beard. Ned felt the coarse hair with his fingers. Varys had transformed himself into a grizzled turnkey, reeking of sweat and sour wine.

Unless Varys has bottles of some other man's sweat, we can assume the reek of sweat that accompanies this disguise is Varys's own. This disguise - who we will later learn is Rugen the gaoler - is Varys when he hasn't washed or shaved for a while. It is, therefore his natural appearance.

Of especial interest is the facial hair, which of course means that Varys isn't really a eunuch. This puts the lie to his supposedly honest statement to Ned:

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"Tell me, Lord Varys, who do you truly serve?"
 Varys smiled thinly. "Why, the realm, my good lord, how ever could you doubt that? I swear it by my lost manhood. I serve the realm, and the realm needs peace." He finished the last swallow of wine, and tossed the empty skin aside. "So what is your answer, Lord Eddard? Give me your word that you'll tell the queen what she wants to hear when she comes calling."
"If I did, my word would be as hollow as an empty suit of armor. My life is not so precious to me as that."

(I left the extra sentences in because I detected a possible connection between Ned's lies being "hollow" and Varys tossing aside an empty (i.e. hollow) wineskin just after he's told Ned a lie. That might be overreach, though.)

Anyway, when we learn about Rugen we get a matching description as well as an explanation of the logistics of Varys's double-life/

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"Rugen was the man's name. An undergaoler who had charge of the black cells. The chief undergaoler describes him as portly, unshaven, gruff of speech. He held his appointment of the old king, Aerys, and came and went as he pleased. The black cells have not oft been occupied in recent years. The other turnkeys were afraid of him, it seems, but none knew much about him. He had no friends, no kin. Nor did he drink or frequent brothels. His sleeping cell was damp and dreary, and the straw he slept upon was mildewed. His chamber pot was overflowing."

And I expect Varys had a hand in making sure that the black cells were unoccupied, so as not to overwork his alter-ego. Here's some more:

Quote

"Rugen," the old man supplied. "An undergaoler. He had charge of the third level, the black cells."
"Tell me of him," Jaime had to say. A bloody farce. He knew who Rugen was, even if Longwaters did not.
"Unkempt, unshaven, coarse of speech. I misliked the man, 'tis true, I do confess it. Rugen was here when I first came, twelve years past. He held his appointment from King Aerys. The man was seldom here, it must be said. I made note of it in my reports, my lord. I most suredly did, I give you my word upon it, the word of a man with royal blood."
Mention that royal blood once more and I may spill some of it, thought Jaime. "Who saw these reports?"
"Certain of them went to the master of coin, others to the master of whisperers. All to the chief gaoler and the King's Justice. It has always been so in the dungeons." Longwaters scratched his nose. "Rugen was here when need be, my lord. That must be said. The black cells are little used."

It makes sense that Rugen would be there when necessary, since Varys would know when people were to be sent down there.

Of more interest are those reports. Naturally Varys would keep his own secret, but could Littlefinger have figured out who Rugen really was? Or the King's Justice? Supposedly Ilyn Payne can't read, but I've always wondered about that. If I was illiterate and lost my tongue, you can bet I'd learn to read and write.

And then there's the chief gaoler, an office unfilled at the time of Jaime's conversation with the chief undergaoler. The reason being, the last chief gaoler was launched out of the city by a trebuchet after he was revealed to have been conspiring with the "Antler Men", a group of Stannis loyalists. Of course, that revelation was brought to the council by Varys. Had the chief gaoler become suspicious? Did Varys eliminate him?

There's also the fact that most of the Antler Men had borrowed large sums of money before they died, a clear indicator of Littlefinger's malfeasance, or so we think. What really happened there? Was Littlefinger setting up these poor bastards so he could walk away with the money? Did he tip off Varys? Did Varys append the chief gaoler's name to the list? Who was playing whom? Or did Varys and Littlefinger somehow work together on this? Or both? Or neither? I'm so confused.

Anyway, key takeaway: Rugen is what Varys really looks like, and he still has his junk. This makes me wonder which is the real persona: Varys or Rugen? Or neither?

3. The begging brother

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A whiff of something rank made him turn his head. Shae stood in the door... Behind her stood one of the begging brothers, a portly man in filthy patched robes, his bare feet crusty with dirt, a bowl hung about his neck on a leather thong where a septon would have worn a crystal. The smell of him would have gagged a rat.

"Lord Varys has come to see you," Shae announced.

And again, when Tyrion recalls his escape from King's Landing:

Quote

The master of whisperers had been dressed as a begging brother, in a moth-eaten robe of brown roughspun with a cowl that shadowed his smooth fat cheeks and bald round head.

Evidently Varys was ready to escape: already in disguise, he didn't need to head back to his own apartments. Presumably this "begging brother" persona has a safehouse of his own, just as Varys and Rugen do.

*******************************************************************

Sidebar: there is a theory that Varys was going to spring Tyrion anyway, and I have to concede the evidence is there for it. Check out this quote:

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He had waited in the eunuch's chambers that night, when at last he had decided not to let his little brother die. As he waited, he had sharpened his dagger with one hand, taking a queer comfort from the scrape-scrape-scrape of steel on stone. At the sound of footsteps he stood beside the door. Varys entered in a wash of powder and lavender.

Again, I can't be bothered looking up any more quotes, but scroll up to when Arya sees him, or consider when he kills Kevan Lannister, and possibly some other occasions: Varys is more than capable of walking without making a sound, yet here Jaime hears his footsteps. Meanwhile Jaime is loudly sharpening a dagger. Evidently Varys knew someone was in his chambers but he went in anyway, and made sure they heard him coming. Then, when Jaime has the advantage, Varys plays up the simpering effeminate character, which we know by now is a lie. Varys allows Jaime to think that he is in control, when really Varys is just doing what he was going to do anyway. I suppose Varys must have a way of seeing into his chambers from outside.

Also note that Varys is powdered and perfumed here, but not when they spring Tyrion.

*******************************************************************

Here are the other begging brothers seen in AFFC and ADWD, when Varys is unaccounted for.

On the road with Brienne:

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There were more travelers than she would have thought. Begging brothers trundled by with their bowls dangling on thongs about their necks.

And again:

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The chanting filled the woods like pious thunder. And suddenly the source of the sound appeared in the road ahead. A group of begging brothers led the way, scruffy bearded men in roughspun robes, some barefoot and some in sandals. Behind them marched threescore ragged men, women, and children, a spotted sow, and several sheep. Several of the men had axes, and more had crude wooden clubs and cudgels. In their midst there rolled a two-wheeled wayn of grey and splintered wood, piled high with skulls and broken bits of bone. When they saw the hedge knights, the begging brothers halted, and the chanting died away. "Good knights," one said, "the Mother loves you."

Don't forget: Varys can grow a beard.

And while Jaime stands watch over his father's corpse:

Quote

 

At midnight the hinges on the Father's Doors gave a groan as several hundred septons filed in for their devotions... A host of brothers appeared as well, in robes of brown and butternut and dun and even undyed roughspun, belted with lengths of hempen rope. Some hung the iron hammer of the Smith about their necks, whilst others carried begging bowls.

 

Could Varys be involved with the Sparrow movement?

Here's an interesting historical note, as Oberyn recalls his trip to Casterly Rock:
 

Quote

"Your father ignored us the whole time we were there, after commanding Ser Kevan to see to our entertainment. The cell they gave me had a featherbed to sleep in and Myrish carpets on the floor, but it was dark and windowless, much like a dungeon when you come down to it, as I told Elia at the time. Your skies were too grey, your wines too sweet, your women too chaste, your food too bland . . . and you yourself were the greatest disappointment of all."
"I had just been born. What did you expect of me?"
"Enormity," the black-haired prince replied. "You were small, but far-famed. We were in Oldtown at your birth, and all the city talked of was the monster that had been born to the King's Hand, and what such an omen might foretell for the realm."
"Famine, plague, and war, no doubt." Tyrion gave a sour smile. "It's always famine, plague, and war. Oh, and winter, and the long night that never ends."
"All that," said Prince Oberyn, "and your father's fall as well. Lord Tywin had made himself greater than King Aerys, I heard one begging brother preach, but only a god is meant to stand above a king. You were his curse, a punishment sent by the gods to teach him that he was no better than any other man."

If Varys was an Aerys loyalist, could he have found a way to get the begging brothers preaching against Tywin? This also recalls the begging brothers preaching against the Lannisters in ACOK: possibly Varys engaging in information warfare, preparing the battlespace ahead of the Targaryen restoration. I seem to recall he did something similar with a puppet show, but that might have been my imagination.

4. Lord Stark's friend

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"A man to see you, my lord," Harwin called. "He will not give his name."
"Send him in," Ned said, wondering.
The visitor was a stout man in cracked, mud-caked boots and a heavy brown robe of the coarsest roughspun, his features hidden by a cowl, his hands drawn up into voluminous sleeves.
"Who are you?" Ned asked.
"A friend," the cowled man said in a strange, low voice. "We must speak alone, Lord Stark."
 Curiosity was stronger than caution. "Harwin, leave us," he commanded. Not until they were alone behind closed doors did his visitor draw back his cowl.
"Lord Varys?" Ned said in astonishment.
 "Lord Stark," Varys said politely, seating himself. "I wonder if I might trouble you for a drink?"
Ned filled two cups with summerwine and handed one to Varys. "I might have passed within a foot of you and never recognized you," he said, incredulous. He had never seen the eunuch dress in anything but silk and velvet and the richest damasks, and this man smelled of sweat instead of lilacs.

Presumably this is the same robe he wears when dressed as a begging brother, which just goes to show how simple some of these disguises are. Here he is a mysterious cowled man, but pull down the hood and pop a bowl round his neck and suddenly he's a monk, or whatever, a completely different identity.

Note also that this is the third disguise he has that involves the smell of sweat, i.e. his natural, unwashed smell, which again raises the question, which identity is the fake one?

5. The matronly woman

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"Varys?" Tyrion slipped inside. "Are you there?" A single candle lit the gloom, spicing the air with the scent of jasmine.
"My lord." A woman sidled into the light; plump, soft, matronly, with a round pink moon of a face and heavy dark curls. Tyrion recoiled. "Is something amiss?" she asked.
Varys, he realized with annoyance.

Varys in a wig. I didn't see this one crop up anywhere else, but if anybody notices any suspicious matronly women hanging about, do let me know.

Alright, those are the legit ones. Are you ready for the tinfoil?

6. The Myrish sea captain

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Taena got quite drunk and Cersei pried the name of her secret lover from her. He was a Myrish sea captain, half a pirate, with black hair to the shoulders and a scar that ran across his face from chin to ear. "A hundred times I told him no, and he said yes," the other woman told her, "until finally I was saying yes as well. He was not the sort of man to be denied."

To be fair, this is less a possible identity and more a bit of creativity with the truth on Taena's part. But since Varys was once a Myrish prince of thieves, and since Arya says his face was scarred, and since Taena is, we suppose, an agent of Varys's, this could be her telling the story of how she was recruited as a spy.

7. The Tyroshi bounty hunter

In AFFC, Cersei is visited by a man who claims to have Tyrion's head:

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The man proved to be Tyroshi; short and stout and sweaty, with an unctuous smile that reminded her of Varys and a forked beard dyed green and pink. Cersei misliked him on sight, but was willing to overlook his flaws if he actually had Tyrion's head inside the chest he carried. It was cedar, inlaid with ivory in a pattern of vines and flowers, with hinges and clasps of white gold. A lovely thing, but the queen's only interest lay in what might be within. It is big enough, at least. Tyrion had a grotesquely large head, for one so small and stunted.
"Your Grace," the Tyroshi murmured, bowing low, "I see you are as lovely as the tales. Even beyond the narrow sea we have heard of your great beauty, and the grief that tears your gentle heart. No man can restore your brave young son to you, but it is my hope I can at least offer you some balm for your pain." He laid his hand upon his chest. "I bring you justice. I bring you the head of your valonqar."
The old Valyrian word sent a chill through her, though it also gave her a tingle of hope. "The Imp is no longer my brother, if he ever was," she declared. "Nor will I say his name. It was a proud name once, before he dishonored it."
"In Tyrosh we name him Redhands, for the blood running from his fingers. A king's blood, and a father's. Some say he slew his mother too, ripping his way from her womb with savage claws."
What nonsense, Cersei thought. "'Tis true," she said. "If the Imp's head is in that chest, I shall raise you to lordship and grant you rich lands and keeps." Titles were cheaper than dirt, and the riverlands were full of ruined castles, standing desolate amidst untended fields and burned villages. "My court awaits. Open the box and let us see."
 The Tyroshi threw open the box with a flourish, and stepped back smiling. Within, the head of a dwarf reposed upon a bed of soft blue velvet, staring up at her.
Cersei took a long look. "That is not my brother." There was a sour taste in her mouth. I suppose it was too much to hope for, especially after Loras. The gods are never that good. "This man has brown eyes. Tyrion had one black eye and one green."
"The eyes, just so . . . Your Grace, your brother's own eyes had . . . somewhat decayed. I took the liberty of replacing them with glass . . . but of the wrong color, as you say."
That only annoyed her further. "Your head may have glass eyes, but I do not. There are gargoyles on Dragonstone that look more like the Imp than this creature. He's bald, and twice my brother's age. What happened to his teeth?"
The man shrank before the fury in her voice. "He had a fine set of gold teeth, Your Grace, but we . . . I regret . . ."
"Oh, not yet. But you will." I ought to have him strangled. Let him gasp for breath until his face turns black, the way my sweet son did. The words were on her lips.
"An honest mistake. One dwarf looks so much like another, and . . . Your Grace will observe, he has no nose . . ."
"He has no nose because you cut it off."
"No!" The sweat on his brow gave the lie to his denial.
"Yes." A poisonous sweetness crept into Cersei's tone. "At least you had that much sense. The last fool tried to tell me that a hedge wizard had regrown it. Still, it seems to me that you owe this dwarf a nose. House Lannister pays its debts, and so shall you. Ser Meryn, take this fraud to Qyburn."
Ser Meryn Trant took the Tyroshi by the arm and hauled him off, still protesting.

The description matches: short, stout, sweaty, and with an "unctuous little smile". He speaks as superciliously as Varys does, and we know Varys was a mummer, so doing an accent isn't a stretch. Cersei's irrational dislike of him is common for Varys, who earlier was said to make Ned Stark's skin crawl. And, as mentioned, he can grow a beard.

Plus, it would be delicious ironical if the man Cersei actually pegged as reminding her of Varys was Varys in disguise. And if you don't think GRRM would be so cheeky, type Ctrl-F familiar and press enter.

I am of course interested in why Varys go through this. He can sneak into the Red Keep any time he wants. (Or can he? Perhaps the destruction of the Tower of the Hand took out one of his tunnels, or perhaps he doesn't think they're safe since Jaime Lannister's been crawling around in them.) Okay, so he probably has a secret way out of the cells, so he doesn't need to worry too much about getting arrested. Did he want to chat to Qyburn? Did he want to see Cersei face-to-face for some reason?

And whose head was that? Twice Tyrion's age, bald, nose cut off, two brown eyes (maybe), gold teeth (maybe) that were smashed out, and no good reason to think he was actually a dwarf. I wonder if he was anyone interesting?

8. Maester Frenken

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...plump ginger-headed Maester Frenken...

Varys in a wig again.

The logistics of this one might challenge you, but bear in mind that Lady Stokeworth is at King's Landing all the time. Varys could easily make that work. Maester Frenken is present for the King's Landing riot, an event that Varys is conspicuously absent from. Supposedly Maester Frenken sends a letter from Stokeworth early in ACOK, but that ought to be easy to fake.

Okay, Varys being Frenken would be impossible if Frenken is at Stokeworth in AGOT, but perhaps Frenken is a new hire.

And of course, Frenken is absent all through AFFC and ADWD, being at Stokeworth. Varys is also absent during this time. Plus, Bronn winds up at Stokeworth, and there are some who speculate that Bronn is in Varys's employ.

Finally, Varys being Frenken means that someone with means and motive could've been present at the autopsy of Joffrey, thus giving him the opportunity to swipe that bit of pie from his throat and present Joffrey's choking as a murder, possibly with the collusion of Pycelle and/or maester Ballabar, who was also present and testifies alongside Frenken. Huzzah, my pet theory is back from the dead!

9. Maester Ballabar

Ballabar has a round pink face and a thin brown beard, and mysteriously arrives in King's Landing in ACOK, supposedly as a part of Lord Redwyne's retinue. He is also present at Joffrey's autopsy, and testifies alongside his alter-ego Frenken at Tyrion's trial. You might think that two people being seen next to each other in the same room at the same time might disqualify the idea that those two people are secretly the same person, but remember: this is a fantasy series, and Varys is a wizard. Ned and Catelyn even say so in AGOT, Ned calling him a magician and Catelyn saying he has some dark art. Evidently his powers include astral projection.

10. Ser Creighton Longbough

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Near dusk she saw a campfire burning by a brook. Two men sat beside it grilling trout, their arms and armor stacked beneath a tree. One was old and one was somewhat younger, though far from young. The younger rose to greet her. He had a big belly straining at the laces of his spotted doeskin jerkin. A shaggy untrimmed beard covered his cheeks and chin, the color of old gold.

Portly? Check. Bearded? Check. The right age? Check.

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The hedge knight squinted at her so earnestly that she realized he must be nearsighted.

Pretending to be weak? Check.

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"I have the honor to be Ser Creighton Longbough, of whom the singers sing," said the big-bellied one. "You will have heard of my deeds on the Blackwater, mayhaps."

If there was a song about Creighton Longbough, it was not one Brienne had heard.

Lying? Check. Don't forget: "North or south, they sing no songs for spiders."

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Ser Creighton's brown gelding was an old swaybacked creature with rheumy eyes, and Ser Illifer's horse looked weedy and half-starved.
"My steed served me well enough on the Blackwater," Ser Creighton insisted. "Why, I did great carnage there and won a dozen ransoms. Was m'lady familiar with Ser Herbert Bolling? You shall never meet him now. I slew him where he stood. When swords clash, you shall ne'er find Ser Creighton Longbough to the rear."

No you shan't, since he doesn't exist.

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"Bah," said Ser Creighton Longbough. "As it happens, I fight as well with either hand."
"Oh, I have no doubt of that." Ser Shadrich lifted his tankard in salute.

You're more right than you know, Ser Shadrich.

I also wonder whether or not he's telling the technical truth with his other boasts, since Varys was involved in the defence of King's Landing. Creighton also frequently claims to have fought a "Knight of the Red Chicken", which reminds me of Jon Connington. Perhaps Varys is referencing the struggle he underwent to convince Jon to join his nefarious plot?

But all that evidence is thin as reeds compared to this next bit. This is the clincher:

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Whatever dreams Brienne dreamed were gone when dawn awoke her. Her legs were stiff as wood from the cold ground, but no one had molested her, and her goods remained untouched. The hedge knights were up and about. Ser Illifer was cutting up a squirrel for breakfast, while Ser Creighton stood facing a tree, having himself a good long piss.

What's that got to do with Varys, I hear you cry? Well, let's recall the one alter-ego who might be closest to the real Varys:

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"Rugen was the man's name. An undergaoler who had charge of the black cells. The chief undergaoler describes him as portly, unshaven, gruff of speech. He held his appointment of the old king, Aerys, and came and went as he pleased. The black cells have not oft been occupied in recent years. The other turnkeys were afraid of him, it seems, but none knew much about him. He had no friends, no kin. Nor did he drink or frequent brothels. His sleeping cell was damp and dreary, and the straw he slept upon was mildewed. His chamber pot was overflowing."

His chamber pot was overflowing. Why? Because he'd been having himself a good long piss.

You can shave your beard, and powder over your scars, and hide under new clothes, and change your voice. But one thing you can't change is how much you piss - and Varys the Spider is an absolute piss monster.

And if you're still not convinced, then listen to the wise Ser Shadrich:

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"Unlike your good Ser Creighton, I did fight upon the Blackwater, but on the losing side. My ransom ruined me. You know who Varys is, I trust?"

Oh George, you saucy fellow!

Fin.

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On 3/31/2017 at 7:37 PM, velo-knight said:

See, this is where the theory dies for me. Varys stated motives are totally at odds with his tactics. Even a hardcore, utilitarian, ends-always-justify-means type has to recognize the inconsistency in wanting to put a perfect prince on the throne "for the children" by systematically mutilating and murdering child spies, instigating war(s) which will cause the deaths of thousands of children and the homelessness of more, and undermining the stability of the very prince he wants to crown. Something has to be worth it for Varys, and I don't think it's just a vague ideology about the pauper prince.

Isn't it exactly the point? How many times revolutions have been shown as struggles for higher ideals just to end in slaughter, because it is "needed" to reach these high goals? How many times wars have been declared to end "oppression" and do carnage to achieve it? Just look at Syria and the "struggle" to implant democracy there.

Here the perfect prince is a embodiment of these ideals and Varys is the one who wants to burn the realm to improve it.

 

 

 

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On 4/1/2017 at 0:15 AM, Lord Varys said:

Varys' riddle pretty much answers this question for us. Power resides where men believe it does. Now, where is power residing in Westeros according to the belief of a majority of the people? With the Targaryens. That is pretty clear. Varys knows that only the Targaryen dynasty will be able to restore a lasting peace to the Realm. There might be capable Baratheon kings, too, and capable men serving them but under the new dynasty the Realm had begun to fracture as is made obvious by the War of the Five Kings and its aftermath, the feast of the crows.

The problem with this part, is that Varys seem to have tried from the beginning to undermine Aerys reign ("the rot started with Varys") and there is nothing that indicate us he wanted to install Rhaegar instead (who everyone agreed was loved and capable).

So, the initial motivations were somewhat different, maybe shifted with time or not. Varys didn't seem to undermine Robert's reign for a long time, although certainly planted some trees to yield fruit at the right time.

 

 

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

The problem with this part, is that Varys seem to have tried from the beginning to undermine Aerys reign ("the rot started with Varys") and there is nothing that indicate us he wanted to install Rhaegar instead (who everyone agreed was loved and capable).

The rot in Aerys' reign started with Aerys. The man was mad and he was in charge. It was Aerys who decided to burn traitors alive, not Varys.

Now, perhaps Varys had more destructive motives back when he first entered Aerys' service. That is certainly possible (although they then would have been pretty destructive as there is no hint he ever wanted to install Illyrio as a new king) but if so, then his objective has changed now. Perhaps the Rebellion and the earlier atrocities caused him to change his mind? We don't know as of yet.

However, we have to keep in mind that Varys is playing roles. For Aerys he would have been what Aerys wanted him to be, just as he was for Robert what he wanted to see, for Ned, Cersei, Tyrion, etc. what they wanted to see. Varys could never have gained and kept the favor of Aerys II if he had not given him what the man wanted - traitors to burn, never mind whether they were real or imagined traitors.

If Varys had kept telling Aerys 'Your Grace, you are loved by all. My little birds have no traitors for you today.' he would have been dismissed or burned himself sooner or later.

Men like Barristan Selmy or Jaime (just as Ned) never had the political acumen to actually look behind Varys' acts, at least not if he didn't want them to. They would have stood around when Varys was whispering to Aerys and would have seen him as a sickness that fueled the paranoia of the king when in fact Aerys would have had just a different Master of Whisperers to tell him stories if he hadn't had Varys.

And the funny thing is that we actually have no idea whether the traitors Varys pointed at were actually innocent. Aerys was a essentially a prisoner of his own castle, that leaves a power vacuum and there might have been quite a few influential and not-so-influential people who tried to capitalize on that.

After Harrenhal (when Aerys showed the extent of his madness to the entire Realm) it might have been possible to make preparations to replace him with Rhaegar but it is quite clear that Rhaegar himself had been very reluctant/torn about that whole thing since he never made a move. And while Tywin was still Aerys' Hand he was very much a king's man, especially after Rhaegar had married Princess Elia. At that point Tywin's own ambitions could best be fulfilled if Viserys became Aerys' successor, not Rhaegar. A widowed Rhaegar would still have to children by Elia, blocking Tywin's grandchildren from taking the throne.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

So, the initial motivations were somewhat different, maybe shifted with time or not. Varys didn't seem to undermine Robert's reign for a long time, although certainly planted some trees to yield fruit at the right time.

We have no idea what Varys did to undermine Robert's rule. But it seems this wasn't really necessary. The twincest and Stannis' personality ensured that the Baratheon regime would not survive Robert. Cersei's children would have only a very bad claim and Stannis was very unpopular, and hated/feared by many lords. The end of the Rebellion had also ensured that the Lannisters and Starks would not remain allies after Robert's death. And Jon Arryn's lack of a (grown-up) heir essentially neutralized the Vale.

If there was no Targaryen restoration the Realm's unity would not long survive Robert. A new unity established by Tywin or Renly wouldn't have been stable for long because those wars would have deepened the rifts between the various houses, creating the desire for vengeance and payback. Just look what effect the Red Wedding had.

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5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Isn't it exactly the point? How many times revolutions have been shown as struggles for higher ideals just to end in slaughter, because it is "needed" to reach these high goals?

Most seemingly illogical ideological ventures have had a healthy component of self-interest in them by their leaders, who are typically the ones deciding to make said ruthless choices.

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

How many times wars have been declared to end "oppression" and do carnage to achieve it? Just look at Syria and the "struggle" to implant democracy there.

Well, in Syria you have a nightmare because some people are struggling for their freedom, some to impose a theocracy, and some to reimpose dictatorship. I wouldn't say that it's actually that idealistic: if I had to guess, most people who protested the MENA dictatorships over the last few years probably just want to have people stop being disappeared and brutalized. I don't know how much that's a pie-in-the-sky dream and how much it's a "I want to not have a government that uses chemical weapons on my family / neighbors / the next town over".

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Here the perfect prince is a embodiment of these ideals and Varys is the one who wants to burn the realm to improve it.

Ok, but doesn't Occam's Razor suggest a simpler explanation, that the perfect prince story isn't the whole story? After all, Varys may think that makes Aegon worthy of kingship, but he may also think it's good PR and makes for an effective ruler - which, if he's got some other interest in Aegon, might just be protecting his investment.

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I'm sure I stole this from someone else but (as far as Varys motivations go) wouldn't be a certain poetic irony that if this master mummer, devoid of "normal" emotions was motivated simply by love. The love of his sister (Serra), his friend/bro-in-law(Ilyrio) and this nephew (Aegon).

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