Varys and Littlefinger

[PCK]

2 hours ago, Praetor Xyn said:

As an aside from the OP quote, is the implication of Littlefinger being the second most devious that Varys is the first? If not then who? Tywin is definitely pretty Machiavellian, but I don't think he's in the same league as Varys, Littlefinger, and Doran Martell.

This is the real takeaway from that exchange. I think LF is after the north, for revenge against the Starks.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

20 minutes ago, PCK said:

This is the real takeaway from that exchange. I think LF is after the north, for revenge against the Starks.

Well, since he has concentrated a huge amount of his efforts on obtaining Harrenhal, and his Vale allies have no incentives to go north but do have potential incentives to invade the riverlands, I'm inclined to disagree with you there.

[Lord Wraith]

2 hours ago, PCK said:

This is the real takeaway from that exchange. I think LF is after the north, for revenge against the Starks.

Nope he is headed to the Riverlands to fuck up some Freys. The North can wait.

Anyway I always found it interesting the first time we meet Baelish and Varys they are working to together. They are clearly both working against Stannis but both playing their own games.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Some quick responses:

Yes, Varys considers himself the most devious man in the Seven Kingdoms. (This is called "hubris".)

We actually know what Varys's end-game is. He wants Aegon VI on the Iron Throne. Alright, there's plenty of details missing, and we don't know why he'd want to do this, but unless you think Varys was lying to Kevan Lannister, we have a perfectly clear view of his goal.

But we don't have anything like that for Littlefinger. All we have are vagaries like power and money and revenge, but not what practical end state he's working towards that he would consider would satisfy those vague motivations. Does he want to become King? The King's Hand? Does he want to eliminate House Stark? We simply don't know. And if we don't know, and none of the other characters know, I think it's possible that Varys doesn't know either. At least, not in the first book, before Littlefinger has started to screw him over.

As for the people who don't think that Littlefinger's victories ought to concern Varys: I simply don't know what to say to you. Varys doesn't care about Sansa, so he'd let Littlefinger have her? He has back-up monarchs, so he'd let Joffrey get murdered?

Let's take it out of the ASOIAF context. Consider Egypt: they don't share a border with Syria, they were probably never especially close to them diplomatically. No closer than they are to, say, Jordan, or the UAE, etc, etc. (Disclaimer: I don't know much about Middle Eastern politics, I'm just trying to make a point.)

Do you think Egypt, therefore, is happy to let Iran achieve victory in this new Middle Eastern cold war that's going on? That is to say: Syria might mean nothing to the Egyptians, but it certainly means a lot to the Iranians, who are powerful and dangerous and whose interests don't necessarily align with Egypt's. Achieving influence in Syria obviously furthers Iran's goals, whatever they are, so why would Egypt be happy to just let Iran take their victory, if it was in their power to do something about it?

Back to ASOIAF: why would Varys, who knows Littlefinger is interested in Sansa, and who knows her immense political value - why would he just permit his rival to take hold of that important game piece? Answer: he wouldn't. It is absolutely mental to think otherwise.

The only explanation is that Varys would have stopped it if he'd known about it, but Littlefinger managed to slip one past him. This is certainly Littlefinger's take on it. That's why he had Sansa and Dontos meet in the godswood: so Varys's spies couldn't hear them talking.

[Lord Varys]

Actually, there is only one instance where Littlefinger outmaneuvers Varys and that's with Ned's execution. And it is no wonder that he was able to pull this off because the king resides in Maegor's Holdfast and Maegor ensured that his spies could not spy on him. Whatever you talk about with the king within his own apartments is not overheard.

We have no idea what Varys wanted throughout ASoS, nor what he actually believes happened there. The murder of Joffrey and the disappearance of Sansa are not exactly developments that go against his interests. They weaken the alliance Tywin had to build and thus help his plans. It is thus entirely possible that Varys knows what happened but chose not to implicate the Tyrells or Littlefinger.

In fact, I doubt he would sent Tyrion to Aegon and Daenerys if he actually believed the man had killed Joffrey. Killing your own nephew, a child of thirteen, is a vile crime and if down out of hatred and spite (as it would have been if Tyrion were behind it) would make it clear that Tyrion was a mad dog best put down rather than a potential ally.

If the Mad Mouse is Varys' man, a former little mouse, then Varys might always have known where Sansa is. And she is actually a great tool to manipulate Littlefinger where he is right now. Varys is likely keen to get the Vale declare for Aegon. How could that be better achieved than by putting an idea in Sansa's head via Ser Shadrich?

And quite honestly - what Littlefinger's endgame is actually not all that relevant. It is quite clear that the man wants power. Whether he would like to sit the throne as king or only effectively control doesn't matter. And Varys certainly knows Littlefinger well enough to know that he wants as far up the food chain as he can possibly get.

[Cridefea]

44 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Varys considers himself the most devious man in the Seven Kingdoms

I haven't thought he was referring to himself! you could be right.

45 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

We actually know what Varys's end-game is.  He wants Aegon VI on the Iron Throne.

Exactly, WE. The readers, not the characters. LF's end-game is to become the most powerful man in the seven kingdoms. Power is LF's motor, what does we know about Vary's motor? he has only talked about the realm , but it is a generic answer, there isn't anybody who know what he has meant with it, among the characters.

57 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Back to ASOIAF: why would Varys, who knows Littlefinger is interested in Sansa, and who knows her immense political value - why would he just permit his rival to take hold of that important game piece? Answer: he wouldn't. It is absolutely mental to think otherwise.

I can't see what do you think Varys should have done for Sansa and why ...

Or why would have Varys wanted Joffrey alive?

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It is quite clear that the man wants power. Whether he would like to sit the throne as king or only effectively control doesn't matter.

exactly.

as for Eddard's execution, I've always thought the Varys-Illyrio's meeting was not so clear, but I have to re-read it.

[PCK]

16 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Well, since he has concentrated a huge amount of his efforts on obtaining Harrenhal, and his Vale allies have no incentives to go north but do have potential incentives to invade the riverlands, I'm inclined to disagree with you there.

 

14 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Nope he is headed to the Riverlands to fuck up some Freys. The North can wait.

Anyway I always found it interesting the first time we meet Baelish and Varys they are working to together. They are clearly both working against Stannis but both playing their own games.

Vale army is going north I think. They wanted to fight for Robb, but weren't allowed. He said it himself, once he unveils Sansa they'll fight for her. As far as anyone south knows, she's the heir to Winterfell. LF wanted to marry her, but was rejected by the queen because of his low birth. The north is effectively half the kingdom in terms of size. LF would be the most poweful lord in Westeros with Harrenhal, the Vale, and the north.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, PCK said:

Vale army is going north I think. They wanted to fight for Robb, but weren't allowed. He said it himself, once he unveils Sansa they'll fight for her. As far as anyone south knows, she's the heir to Winterfell. LF wanted to marry her, but was rejected by the queen because of his low birth. The north is effectively half the kingdom in terms of size. LF would be the most poweful lord in Westeros with Harrenhal, the Vale, and the north.

Littlefinger wants ultimate power and Sansa. If he goes North with the Vale now he'll lose everything because the North is a ruin already, and he is going to lose men up there, not gain some. Even if his coalition would end up controlling the North, the Vale, and the Riverlands he could neither hold them nor use them as a springboard to gain even more power. And he must know that.

[Therae]

25 minutes ago, PCK said:

He said it himself, once he unveils Sansa they'll fight for her. As far as anyone south knows, she's the heir to Winterfell.

As far as most folks know, Sansa Stark is also wanted by the crown as an accomplice in Joffrey's assassination, and she's still married to Tyrion. LF doesn't have any plans to reveal her identity any time soon, so enlisting the Vale to march North probably isn't in the immediate works. He's telling her that his plan is to get her what he thinks she wants to encourage her to play her role in his plan to get what he wants, and right now, that's probably to stall and let Cersei continue to do everything she can to weaken her own position.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, PCK said:

Vale army is going north I think. They wanted to fight for Robb, but weren't allowed. He said it himself, once he unveils Sansa they'll fight for her. As far as anyone south knows, she's the heir to Winterfell. LF wanted to marry her, but was rejected by the queen because of his low birth. The north is effectively half the kingdom in terms of size. LF would be the most poweful lord in Westeros with Harrenhal, the Vale, and the north.

Announced plans almost never happen in a GRRM story. If LF said out loud that Sansa is going to marry Harry and the Vale lords will take back the north, you can bet good money that's not what will happen. It's winter, and invading the north would be a nightmare for little to no political gain. Yeah, they could take WF, but Sansa herself is more important and they already have her. The north can't grow food in winter and historically has required aid from the south to feed its people. But more importantly, the Freys have been set up to have an all-out civil war, and some of the Frey factions have direct ties to the Vale lords. Riverrun, the Twins, and Darry are all at stake, and that's infinitely more important to the Vale lords than getting WF back for Sansa.

[PCK]

2 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Announced plans almost never happen in a GRRM story. If LF said out loud that Sansa is going to marry Harry and the Vale lords will take back the north, you can bet good money that's not what will happen. It's winter, and invading the north would be a nightmare for little to no political gain. Yeah, they could take WF, but Sansa herself is more important and they already have her. The north can't grow food in winter and historically has required aid from the south to feed its people. But more importantly, the Freys have been set up to have an all-out civil war, and some of the Frey factions have direct ties to the Vale lords. Riverrun, the Twins, and Darry are all at stake, and that's infinitely more important to the Vale lords than getting WF back for Sansa.

LF is definitely prepping for something, hence the food hoarding. I don't think it's just winter alone.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

2 hours ago, PCK said:

LF is definitely prepping for something, hence the food hoarding. I don't think it's just winter alone.

Yes, sorry if I was unclear. LF and the Vale lords and probably the Braavosi are all headed into the riverlands in TWOW. So he is prepping for a fight, just not the one he claims.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, there is only one instance where Littlefinger outmaneuvers Varys and that's with Ned's execution. And it is no wonder that he was able to pull this off because the king resides in Maegor's Holdfast and Maegor ensured that his spies could not spy on him. Whatever you talk about with the king within his own apartments is not overheard.

Where are you getting that from?

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In fact, I doubt he would sent Tyrion to Aegon and Daenerys if he actually believed the man had killed Joffrey. Killing your own nephew, a child of thirteen, is a vile crime and if down out of hatred and spite (as it would have been if Tyrion were behind it) would make it clear that Tyrion was a mad dog best put down rather than a potential ally.

Good point, but just because Varys knows Tyrion didn't kill Joffrey doesn't mean that he knows who did. And just because he knows who did, doesn't mean he knew beforehand.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Mad Mouse is Varys' man, a former little mouse, then Varys might always have known where Sansa is. And she is actually a great tool to manipulate Littlefinger where he is right now. Varys is likely keen to get the Vale declare for Aegon. How could that be better achieved than by putting an idea in Sansa's head via Ser Shadrich?

Yes, I believe I mentioned that possibility upthread: Varys might be letting Littlefinger win for now. Playing the long game, as it were.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And quite honestly - what Littlefinger's endgame is actually not all that relevant. It is quite clear that the man wants power. Whether he would like to sit the throne as king or only effectively control doesn't matter. And Varys certainly knows Littlefinger well enough to know that he wants as far up the food chain as he can possibly get.

I disagree, the details are very relevant, at least from Varys's perspective. Does he want to be the king's hand, or the king himself? Would he be content to be a great lord? If so, which lordship does he want? The specifics matter. If Littlefinger just wants to be a bigwig, that can be accomodated. If he wants to be the head muckity-muck, that conflicts with Varys's own agenda and makes Littlefinger an enemy.

8 hours ago, Cridefea said:

I can't see what do you think Varys should have done for Sansa and why ...

Well, Varys should have attempted to prevent Littlefinger fleeing with Sansa. But he had no idea that plan was in the works.

8 hours ago, Cridefea said:

Or why would have Varys wanted Joffrey alive?

He wants Joffrey alive for the time being. Varys needs chaos, but at the right time. Until then, he needs stability. Joffrey getting killed does not provide that.

Plus, Joffrey appears to be as sadistic as Aerys was, so he would make a good villain for Aegon to fight against.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

I can't do a huge post right now. But it seemed to me that's on a much smaller scales than you guys are making out.

LF + Varys appoints/employs all people who collect money. Varys has "bodies he can forfeit" if arrested for high treason LF has nothing in return if he's caught (Tricking Sansa easily his best move besides whatever LF tricks he pulled on Lysa) 

We also know that during one of Varys very few private convos, he tells Illyrio "The gods alone know what games LF are playing" NO BOOK ONME BUT THATS VERY VERY CLOSE

He does know wtf LF is up too. To many extents exactly what LF is doing. He knows LF skimmed the ever loving shit out of every tariff, tax, fee, invoice and transaction and was also into insider trading. Like others have said he did underestimate LF but not enough to get overwhelmed. And also ditto to another comment where Varys could claim his princess has 3 dragons and work out the war part later lol LF is also duper discrete  (Don't count Harry yet, I doubt he knows LF is in control from the lords declerant for a year (this was beyond ridiculous and so overrated LF luck summed up into one event), I doubt he knows LF is sweetrobin's 2nd favorite alive person/role model,

and no one knows about the stash of food besides LF closest Vale lords

 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Announced plans almost never happen in a GRRM story. If LF said out loud that Sansa is going to marry Harry and the Vale lords will take back the north, you can bet good money that's not what will happen. It's winter, and invading the north would be a nightmare for little to no political gain. Yeah, they could take WF, but Sansa herself is more important and they already have her. The north can't grow food in winter and historically has required aid from the south to feed its people. But more importantly, the Freys have been set up to have an all-out civil war, and some of the Frey factions have direct ties to the Vale lords. Riverrun, the Twins, and Darry are all at stake, and that's infinitely more important to the Vale lords than getting WF back for Sansa.

It is quite clear that the Sansa-North plan is a longterm game. And I'm pretty sure Aegon's arrival is going to cut that short. The plan is to have word about Tyrion's death so that Sansa Stark can safely remarry. The plan is to wait until the Lannisters and the Tyrells rip each other apart. The plan is to have Sansa woo Harry so that he agrees to a marriage. The plan is to kill Lord Robert Arryn.

This is not something that will be accomplished in a few weeks.

In addition, there is absolutely no way that they would want sent troops North in the middle of winter. That would be utter stupidity. The Lords of the Vale are simply not prepared for winter warfare in the North and nobody would deem something of that sort necessary or wise if Sansa can just as well take the North in spring.

7 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Where are you getting that from?

From Varys' descriptions about the secret passageways in the Red Keep. Either in ACoK or ASoS. He tells us that Maegor built a secret escape route out of the royal apartments in Maegor's (most likely the one Larys Strong used to get Aegon II and his children out of the castle) but this tunnel is unconnected to the other tunnels that are used to spy on the entire court.

The idea that a man as paranoid as Maegor would slept safe and sound knowing that somebody could send in assassins into his very bedchamber, gutting him in his sleep, doesn't strike me as very likely in any case.

7 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Good point, but just because Varys knows Tyrion didn't kill Joffrey doesn't mean that he knows who did. And just because he knows who did, doesn't mean he knew beforehand.

I never said that he did not know beforehand. We don't know what he knew. However, I'm not inclined to assume that he had no clue about any of that. Littlefinger and Olenna might be smart enough to avoid being overheard by the little birds but there are other ways to guess at or deduce the intentions of other people.

7 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I disagree, the details are very relevant, at least from Varys's perspective. Does he want to be the king's hand, or the king himself? Would he be content to be a great lord? If so, which lordship does he want? The specifics matter. If Littlefinger just wants to be a bigwig, that can be accomodated. If he wants to be the head muckity-muck, that conflicts with Varys's own agenda and makes Littlefinger an enemy.

Everybody is Varys' enemy at court. He plans to put Aegon on the Iron Throne. Robert, Jon Arryn, Stannis, Renly, Ned, Littlefinger, Tywin, etc. they are all his enemies - aside from, perhaps, some people he thinks he can recruit to his cause.

Varys may not have known what Littlefinger wanted during the last months of Robert's reign. Was he planning to back Ned, Cersei, Renly, undecided? He didn't know.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is quite clear that the Sansa-North plan is a longterm game. And I'm pretty sure Aegon's arrival is going to cut that short. The plan is to have word about Tyrion's death so that Sansa Stark can safely remarry. The plan is to wait until the Lannisters and the Tyrells rip each other apart. The plan is to have Sansa woo Harry so that he agrees to a marriage. The plan is to kill Lord Robert Arryn.

This is not something that will be accomplished in a few weeks.

In addition, there is absolutely no way that they would want sent troops North in the middle of winter. That would be utter stupidity. The Lords of the Vale are simply not prepared for winter warfare in the North and nobody would deem something of that sort necessary or wise if Sansa can just as well take the North in spring.

From Varys' descriptions about the secret passageways in the Red Keep. Either in ACoK or ASoS. He tells us that Maegor built a secret escape route out of the royal apartments in Maegor's (most likely the one Larys Strong used to get Aegon II and his children out of the castle) but this tunnel is unconnected to the other tunnels that are used to spy on the entire court.

The idea that a man as paranoid as Maegor would slept safe and sound knowing that somebody could send in assassins into his very bedchamber, gutting him in his sleep, doesn't strike me as very likely in any case.

I never said that he did not know beforehand. We don't know what he knew. However, I'm not inclined to assume that he had no clue about any of that. Littlefinger and Olenna might be smart enough to avoid being overheard by the little birds but there are other ways to guess at or deduce the intentions of other people.

Everybody is Varys' enemy at court. He plans to put Aegon on the Iron Throne. Robert, Jon Arryn, Stannis, Renly, Ned, Littlefinger, Tywin, etc. they are all his enemies - aside from, perhaps, some people he thinks he can recruit to his cause.

Varys may not have known what Littlefinger wanted during the last months of Robert's reign. Was he planning to back Ned, Cersei, Renly, undecided? He didn't know.

He knew all along. Do what it takes to get Faegon Blackfyre on the throne. If you can't beat them.... Varys them. 

He will die from a stab in the neck/throat/jelly roll, calling it

I agree about Maegor and  think we are on the same page but the holdfast is 1 way in and out in your opinion right? You're referring to the actual text with Varys and Tyrion? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Petyr is able to outfox Varys because Petyr knows how Varys collects information, or at least he knows that anything said inside the walls of the Red Keep can be detected by Varys. Olenna knows this too.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

He knew all along. Do what it takes to get Faegon Blackfyre on the throne. If you can't beat them.... Varys them. 

He will die from a stab in the neck/throat/jelly roll, calling it

I agree about Maegor and  think we are on the same page but the holdfast is 1 way in and out in your opinion right? You're referring to the actual text with Varys and Tyrion? 

Sure:

Quote

“You will bring Shae to me through the walls, hidden from all these eyes. As you have done before.”
Varys wrung his hands. “Oh, my lord, nothing would please me more, but . . . King Maegor wanted no rats in his own walls, if you take my meaning. He did require a means of secret egress, should he ever be trapped by his enemies, but that door does not connect with any other passages. I can steal your Shae away from Lady Lollys for a time, to be sure, but I have no way to bring her to your bedchamber without us being seen.”

Maegor's Holdfast is safe from the little birds. We see this confirmed again when Varys has to lure Kevan out of there and into Pycelle's to kill him rather than paying him a visit in his bedchamber.

One would also assume that the secret passage leading out of the king's apartments can only be opened from the inside (i.d. the king's chambers) not from the escape tunnel. Maegor was paranoid. He wanted a secret exit, nor a secret entrance for would-be kingslayers.

Thus we can be reasonably confident that Littlefinger could take his time talking with Joffrey about both Eddard's execution (and its arrangement with the help of Janos Slynt) as well as the plan involving the jousting dwarfs. Whether it makes sense that Littlefinger knew about that is difficult to say but we can say that if he did that there is no chance that Varys' little birds would have overheard them.

It also fits with the inability of Blood and Cheese to murder Aegon II in his bed. They could not get into Maegor's, either.

I'm inclined to believe Daemon meant a son of Alicent's not Aegon's in his letter. Alicent and Otto no longer resided in Maegor's after Aegon II's coronation, but the royal princes Aemond and Daeron (if in the castle at this point, and not still/already at Storm's End and Oldtown) might have still have apartments in Maegor's, just as Tyrion later did as brother of the queen. Renly (and Stannis, too, presumably) also seems to have resided in Maegor's. He returns into the castle within the castle after talking to Ned on the drawbridge.

[Lost Melnibonean]

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure:

Maegor's Holdfast is safe from the little birds. We see this confirmed again when Varys has to lure Kevan out of there and into Pycelle's to kill him rather than paying him a visit in his bedchamber.

One would also assume that the secret passage leading out of the king's apartments can only be opened from the inside (i.d. the king's chambers) not from the escape tunnel. Maegor was paranoid. He wanted a secret exit, nor a secret entrance for would-be kingslayers.

Thus we can be reasonably confident that Littlefinger could take his time talking with Joffrey about both Eddard's execution (and its arrangement with the help of Janos Slynt) as well as the plan involving the jousting dwarfs. Whether it makes sense that Littlefinger knew about that is difficult to say but we can say that if he did that there is no chance that Varys' little birds would have overheard them.

It also fits with the inability of Blood and Cheese to murder Aegon II in his bed. They could not get into Maegor's, either.

I'm inclined to believe Daemon meant a son of Alicent's not Aegon's in his letter. Alicent and Otto no longer resided in Maegor's after Aegon II's coronation, but the royal princes Aemond and Daeron (if in the castle at this point, and not still/already at Storm's End and Oldtown) might have still have apartments in Maegor's, just as Tyrion later did as brother of the queen. Renly (and Stannis, too, presumably) also seems to have resided in Maegor's. He returns into the castle within the castle after talking to Ned on the drawbridge.

Or perhaps Petyr was sly about getting Joffrey to off the Ned, using the power of suggestion, as he did when treating with the Tyrells for the King and House Lannister. And I would expect that he met with Ilyn and Janos in the yard or some other place outside to tell them to expect Joffrey to call for the Ned's head. 

[Cridefea]

23 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Well, Varys should have attempted to prevent Littlefinger fleeing with Sansa. But he had no idea that plan was in the works

Why? Let's pretend Varys knew about LF's plan to take Sansa with him. Sansa is the North, and it's important that she survives. With LF she is safer than in KL with Cersei. The chances she survives are higher, meanwhile he plans Aegon's arrival. So even if Varys knows Sansa is going to flee, why should he prevent it? and don't forget that it was Varys that freed Tyrion, even if apparently it was Jaime who asked for it. LF wanted Tyrion executed and Sansa free to re-marry. 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't know what he knew. However, I'm not inclined to assume that he had no clue about any of that. Littlefinger and Olenna might be smart enough to avoid being overheard by the little birds but there are other ways to guess at or deduce the intentions of other people.