Does Varys know about Jon Snow's parentage?

[The Burning Wight]

I'm not sure if this has been discussed, but I've always been curious if Varys is aware of Jon Snow's potential parentage. Assuming R + L = J is true, could Varys be aware of the events surrounding the Tower of Joy?

We know that Varys was the Master of Whispers during Aery's reign. We know that Rhaegar's kidnapping of Lyanna would certainly count as something of note, something that Varys would follow closely. So when Rhaegar marches off to the trident without three of the kings guard, including it's captain (Hightower), and arguably it's greatest sword (Dayne), wouldn't Varys want to do some investigating, especially when those three kings guards turn up dead such a long way from the Trident? Admittedly, the details around ToJ are sketchy at best, considering there were only two survivors, but I'm inclined to think there are enough details for someone as observant as Varys to piece the puzzle together. 

If Varys does know, does Jon play into his plans regarding Dany and fAegon?

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, The Burning Wight said:

I'm not sure if this has been discussed, but I've always been curious if Varys is aware of Jon Snow's potential parentage. Assuming R + L = J is true, could Varys be aware of the events surrounding the Tower of Joy?

We know that Varys was the Master of Whispers during Aery's reign. We know that Rhaegar's kidnapping of Lyanna would certainly count as something of note, something that Varys would follow closely. So when Rhaegar marches off to the trident without three of the kings guard, including it's captain (Hightower), and arguably it's greatest sword (Dayne), wouldn't Varys want to do some investigating, especially when those three kings guards turn up dead such a long way from the Trident? Admittedly, the details around ToJ are sketchy at best, considering there were only two survivors, but I'm inclined to think there are enough details for someone as observant as Varys to piece the puzzle together. 

I don't think Varys knows what exactly happened at the ToJ, but it strikes me as hard to believe that no one (least of all Varys) didn't put things together and didn't think that Rhaegar's kidnapping of (or eloping with) Lyanna didn't end in pregnancy. And then Ned shows up with a bastard out of nowhere. Even if Ned himself has been planting rumors about the possible mothers, someone should suspect something.  

2 hours ago, The Burning Wight said:

If Varys does know, does Jon play into his plans regarding Dany and fAegon?

 

I don't think so. Jon status as bastard and Ned intention to keep it, probably put him as the least of the dangers in any plan. Becoming part of th NW even lessen any possible threat.

Dany is in the other hand becoming a serious issue.

[Stormking902]

Varys doesnt know exactly what happened at the TOJ but im sure he knows something of importance most deffinitly did........  Ned Stark and Howland Reed wouldnt be talking about the TOJ to anyone so Varys learning exactly what happened seems a little far fetched. 

[Wolf's Bane]

7 hours ago, The Burning Wight said:

I'm not sure if this has been discussed, but I've always been curious if Varys is aware of Jon Snow's potential parentage. Assuming R + L = J is true, could Varys be aware of the events surrounding the Tower of Joy?

We know that Varys was the Master of Whispers during Aery's reign. We know that Rhaegar's kidnapping of Lyanna would certainly count as something of note, something that Varys would follow closely. So when Rhaegar marches off to the trident without three of the kings guard, including it's captain (Hightower), and arguably it's greatest sword (Dayne), wouldn't Varys want to do some investigating, especially when those three kings guards turn up dead such a long way from the Trident? Admittedly, the details around ToJ are sketchy at best, considering there were only two survivors, but I'm inclined to think there are enough details for someone as observant as Varys to piece the puzzle together. 

If Varys does know, does Jon play into his plans regarding Dany and fAegon?

Varys is a smart man and the thought must have occurred to him even if R+L=J is false, which I think it is.  But he's not really interested in a half Stark bastard.  He has Aegon and Viserys to choose from.  There is no need to bring in a bastard whose identity will be next to impossible to prove and a grandson of a Targaryen enemy at that. 

[cgrav]

I've always wondered how Lyanna could have been "kidnapped" and "held" for the better part of a year without anyone wondering where the resulting kid is. Nobody thinks it was a platonic kidnapping.

I imagine Rhaegar chose the ToJ specifically to avoid little birds and other communications, but Ned still found out where she was. Yes it's all very conspicuous with the KG there, but once everyone's dead, there's nothing more to learn from observers.

I would think that even if Varys does know, he considers the situation largely stable with the royal bastard hidden up in Winterfell/The Wall and with no idea of his own parentage. And it's likely that Ned has Varys and Littlefinger in mind specifically when it comes to hiding Jon's parentage.

We're also taking Ned's honorable character for granted here. We know this now as readers because of Ned's POV and various descriptions of him post-rebellion. People didn't know Ned all that well prior to the Rebellion, as he was in his brother's shadow. Very few people could have known back then that fathering a bastard was very much out of his character, and the widespread belief that Jon is his bastard is the proof of that.

Personally, I suspect that Littlefinger knows.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

If Varys knows, he's keeping that information very quiet. Could be the ace in the hole if the Aegon plan doesn't work out.

[Alaynsa Starne]

It's possible that Varys put R and L together and came up with J, as it's a fairly obvious conclusion to come to. At the same time, however, how much is Jon talked about? The North seems to be a region of little interest in KL, Ned isn't involved in court until AGOT, Jon is still too young to have made a name for himself before going to the Wall, and Varys has likely never seen him. If the story goes "Oh, yeah, Ned Stark had a bastard during the rebellion," and that's pretty much all Varys, or anyone, knows about it, then it would be somewhat illogical for the natural assumption to be that Jon isn't Ned's. If it's generally assumed that Ashara Dayne is the mother, and Ned made damn sure that he wasn't seen with Jon until after leaving Starfall, then his tracks are pretty carefully covered. 

As it is, Varys never shows any particular interest in Jon. If he does know, he doesn't seem to care. 

[cgrav]

9 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

If Varys knows, he's keeping that information very quiet. Could be the ace in the hole if the Aegon plan doesn't work out.

I thought that, but I also think it's too late for Varys/Illyrio to mold Jon into "their" king. Aegon and Viserys demonstrate that Varys/Illyrio take great care to ensure their prospective kings are raised to believe in their royalty and right to the throne. Jon is very much the opposite. If Varys did know RLJ anytime shortly after Jon's birth, that was the time to take action. And Varys has to know that any highborn bastard in the North is very likely to end up at the Wall. The "wait and see" approach seems inconsistent with Varys's very specific plans.

As cool as it would be to add this string connecting Varys to Jon, I think I prefer the idea of Ned managing to take the biggest secret in Westeros to his grave. Sort of gives Ned the last laugh, managing to trick the tricksters. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

11 hours ago, The Burning Wight said:

I'm not sure if this has been discussed, but I've always been curious if Varys is aware of Jon Snow's potential parentage. Assuming R + L = J is true, could Varys be aware of the events surrounding the Tower of Joy?

We know that Varys was the Master of Whispers during Aery's reign. We know that Rhaegar's kidnapping of Lyanna would certainly count as something of note, something that Varys would follow closely. So when Rhaegar marches off to the trident without three of the kings guard, including it's captain (Hightower), and arguably it's greatest sword (Dayne), wouldn't Varys want to do some investigating, especially when those three kings guards turn up dead such a long way from the Trident? Admittedly, the details around ToJ are sketchy at best, considering there were only two survivors, but I'm inclined to think there are enough details for someone as observant as Varys to piece the puzzle together. 

If Varys does know, does Jon play into his plans regarding Dany and fAegon?

Varys does not know. If he has any suspicions he has not let anyone know, and from a practical point of view, Jon has never left the north and now he is a brother of the watch 

[Lollygag]

ACOK Tyrion I:"May I leave you with a bit of a riddle, Lord Tyrion?" He did not wait for an answer. "In a room sit three great men, a king, a priest, and a rich man with his gold. Between them stands a sellsword, a little man of common birth and no great mind. Each of the great ones bids him slay the other two. 'Do it,' says the king, 'for I am your lawful ruler.' 'Do it,' says the priest, 'for I command you in the names of the gods.' 'Do it,' says the rich man, 'and all this gold shall be yours.' So tell me—who lives and who dies?"

ACOK Tyrion II: Tyrion cocked his head sideways. "Did you mean to answer your damned riddle, or only to make my head ache worse?"

Varys smiled. "Here, then. Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less."

If Varys does know, and he may, I'm not sure Jon is much use to him. He's very concerned with appearances and public perception, and Jon being so Starky makes him a very hard sell as a Targ. Compared to Dany's and Aegon's Targ vibe, Jon has no hope. At best, I suspect Jon is a last resort for Varys.

I always found the Northern air around JonCon and Aegon to be rather intriguing. I wonder if the idea for how Aegon was raised may have been inspired by and intended to approximate how Jon was being raised by Ned in the North. Varys seems to have a had a genuine respect for Ned.

[cgrav]

7 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I always found the Northern air around JonCon and Aegon to be rather intriguing. I wonder if the idea for how Aegon was raised may have been inspired by and intended to approximate how Jon was being raised by Ned in the North. Varys seems to have a had a genuine respect for Ned.

 

 

I also think it's interesting that Varys's description of Aegon sounds a lot more like Jon, who is actually tough, self-reliant, and duty-bound, while Aegon is kinda bratty and easily manipulated by Tyrion.

[Hangover of the Morning]

I'd be incredibly surprised and frankly quite disappointed if it turns out that Varys knows about Jon's real parentage. His actions throughout the books suggest no such thing and the Young Griff reveal makes it down right impossible without making it look like a clumsily handled retcon later on. 

I think the whole Jon = Targaryen princeling reveal and the irony that the politically inept Ned Stark was able to outplay all the aces of the game without any scheming, lying or backstabbing, would be heavily undermined (and didn't make much sense) if we later find out that Varys (or LF, Doran etc.) knew about Jon all along. 

[Maxxine]

I don't think Varys. 1) If he did even have suspicions he would probably make some snide convoluted remark that hints at the fact that he knows at some point. Think the way multiple people make veiled remarks about Jaime and Cersei. 2) It always annoys when me people RLJ is obvious. It's only obvious to us because we have these forums to dissect every little piece information while we wait for Winds. Had GRRM gotten all the books out within 10 years the RLJ would've been a shock to most readers imo. Also, it's also not some great leap in logic for in-story characters to believe Ned's story. Yeah he's honorable but even honorable people slip while at war and away from their wives who they don't even really know. Plus Jon looks just like him. They had no reason not to believe Jon was his. 

7 minutes ago, cgrav said:

I also think it's interesting that Varys's description of Aegon sounds a lot more like Jon, who is actually tough, self-reliant, and duty-bound, while Aegon is kinda bratty and easily manipulated by Tyrion.

I think the description Varys gives in Dance describes a lot of characters. Jon, Arya, Dany, and to a lesser extent Bran. I think that part of the point. To show a lot of people can fit this mold of the "perfect prince."

[Lollygag]

6 minutes ago, cgrav said:

I also think it's interesting that Varys's description of Aegon sounds a lot more like Jon, who is actually tough, self-reliant, and duty-bound, while Aegon is kinda bratty and easily manipulated by Tyrion.

It makes sense that Varys would have preferred to use Jon given Ned's reputation and that Jon is the local guy, where Aegon has never stepped foot in Westeros since he was a baby. He just didn't have the look.

Speaking of Aegon's brat tendencies. His training reminds me a lot of Plato's controversial Philosopher King. I think there's strong hints that Varys (and others?) tried to construct the "perfect king" to create a perfect realm, and that it will not go so well for him, much like the Philosopher King just didn't produce the results which Plato wanted. In contrast, GRRM shows a lot of rule by groups in the form of triarchs, 3 heads of the dragon, and in the prominence of counselors and hands to their respective kings and queens. There is no "perfect" ruler.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/philosopher-king

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosopher_king

 

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 4/2/2017 at 0:53 PM, cgrav said:

I thought that, but I also think it's too late for Varys/Illyrio to mold Jon into "their" king. Aegon and Viserys demonstrate that Varys/Illyrio take great care to ensure their prospective kings are raised to believe in their royalty and right to the throne. Jon is very much the opposite. If Varys did know RLJ anytime shortly after Jon's birth, that was the time to take action. And Varys has to know that any highborn bastard in the North is very likely to end up at the Wall. The "wait and see" approach seems inconsistent with Varys's very specific plans.

As cool as it would be to add this string connecting Varys to Jon, I think I prefer the idea of Ned managing to take the biggest secret in Westeros to his grave. Sort of gives Ned the last laugh, managing to trick the tricksters. 

You make a very good point there, but what if after all of their care and molding, Aegon turns out to be a wash? If he is Elia's son, he could end up going mad as his grandfather and uncle did before him. Then Jon would look a lot better, particularly when you consider that he was raised by one of the best and most honorable non-kings Westeros has ever had. Ned couldn't handle politics, but he was stellar in many other respects. And while Ned was unable to learn from having his head chopped off, Jon may be able to learn from being stabbed.

Ned having the last laugh I could totally get behind.

[cgrav]

45 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

You make a very good point there, but what if after all of their care and molding, Aegon turns out to be a wash?

 

I feel like this is definitely the setup, not that our expectations as readers have anything to do with what the characters think. 

This hypothetical is actually a really good lens to look at the our two favorite puppet masters and how they differ:

Varys is a bit of a control freak: he's manipulating events to keep the path open for a king decades in the making, and involving only a couple of other people who share the exact same goal. As we hear early on, he's trying to maintain some stability in order to keep things nice and predictable, so that he can flip the chaos switch in Westeros when the time is just right. In that light, if he does know RLJ, then we can conclude that he's totally cool with whatever's happening with Jon at the moment (that's assuming he doesn't yet know Jon is dead-ish). If we want to angle for Varys being in on RLJ, then we can take Varys's very James Bond Villain-esque exposition as literally describing Jon within the story, rather than Aegon.

But Littlefinger is the opposite. He's an agent of chaos, by both his symbolism and his own admission. Instead of trying to clear a secret way for his own plans, he screws up everyone else's plans and works only with the advantage of hiding behind his weak titles. Unlike Varys, he involves many people in his plots, but doesn't let them in on his longer game, and instead just helps them achieve some trivial interest of their own while they unwittingly serve his gigantic ambitions. So it actually makes perfect sense that Littlefinger would know about RLJ and do nothing overt with that information until it becomes useful in the moment.

The biggest difference is that Varys is actually looking for a King, while Littlefinger just needs someone whose power he can leech off of and would probably refuse the throne if offered. Varys doesn't want something as important as a Targ/Blackfyre restoration left to chance. Littlefinger loves nothing more than other people taking chances.

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

9 minutes ago, cgrav said:

I feel like this is definitely the setup, not that our expectations as readers have anything to do with what the characters think. 

This hypothetical is actually a really good lens to look at the our two favorite puppet masters and how they differ:

Varys is a bit of a control freak: he's manipulating events to keep the path open for a king decades in the making, and involving only a couple of other people who share the exact same goal. As we hear early on, he's trying to maintain some stability in order to keep things nice and predictable, so that he can flip the chaos switch in Westeros when the time is just right. In that light, if he does know RLJ, then we can conclude that he's totally cool with whatever's happening with Jon at the moment (that's assuming he doesn't yet know Jon is dead-ish). If we want to angle for Varys being in on RLJ, then we can take Varys's very James Bond Villain-esque exposition as literally describing Jon within the story, rather than Aegon.

But Littlefinger is the opposite. He's an agent of chaos, by both his symbolism and his own admission. Instead of trying to clear a secret way for his own plans, he screws up everyone else's plans and works only with the advantage of hiding behind his weak titles. Unlike Varys, he involves many people in his plots, but doesn't let them in on his longer game, and instead just helps them achieve some trivial interest of their own while they unwittingly serve his gigantic ambitions. So it actually makes perfect sense that Littlefinger would know about RLJ and do nothing overt with that information until it becomes useful in the moment.

The biggest difference is that Varys is actually looking for a King, while Littlefinger just needs someone whose power he can leech off of and would probably refuse the throne if offered. Varys doesn't want something as important as a Targ/Blackfyre restoration left to chance. Littlefinger loves nothing more than other people taking chances.

 

Awesome analysis of those two! I've long thought LF is more interested in being the puppet-master than the guy sitting the throne.

[Lollygag]

Whether Varys knows RLJ or not, if Jon gets resurrected by Mel and becomes a magical abomination, then Varys' view of Jon will likely drastically change.

I dream of the voice. The voice from the flames. Was it a god, a demon, some conjurer's trick? I could not tell you, and I know all the tricks. All I can say for a certainty is that he called it, and it answered, and since that day I have hated magic and all those who practice it. If Lord Stannis is one such, I mean to see him dead."

[cgrav]

6 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Awesome analysis of those two! I've long thought LF is more interested in being the puppet-master than the guy sitting the throne.

Exactly. I think people are caught by the succinctness of Varys's riddle on power to Tyrion, but Littlefinger is the living contradiction to it. Littlefinger's power derives from everyone else's belief in his weakness.

I think it would be sloppily out of character for Varys to suddenly pull RLJ out of his pocket, especially since the first hints of Varys's plot were dropped in the first half of the first book. 

If it's not clear by now, I think Littlefinger is a far more interesting question with regard to RLJ, and I do think there's a chance he knows. I may have to investigate this further.

[velo-knight]

I really hope Varys doesn't, and I hope LF doesn't as well - I know some people consider it cliche, but how amusing would it be for the series to end and it's revealed that Ned Stark pulled one over Littlefinger and Varys?