Does Varys know about Jon Snow's parentage?

[Maester Saramello]

I don't think so. 

If R+L does indeed = J, than Jon Snow has the potential to be a real game shaker in the game of thrones. 

On his father's side, as a bastard Targaryen, He has a claim(albeit weak, but with every royal death it just keeps getting stronger) on the Iron Throne itself.

On his mother's side, as a bastard Stark, he has a claim on the north(and the gods know they are near extinct). 

So what does Varys, who love Targaryens, do to Jon Snow to be able to use him as a potential pawn and rallying point, a secondary plan for the Iron Throne if his current Targ plot doesn't work? Varys lets Jon Snow go to the edge of the world where the life expectancy and weather makes Detroit seem like Beverly Hills. There is no way Varys knew that Jon Snow could be anything but Ned's bastard(which virtually every lord has). If he had, he would never have allowed Jon Snow to go to the Wall, where he is not only on the edge of the world but sworn to take no titles. Varys would have kidnapped him or otherwise prevented him from taking the vows. 

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

5 minutes ago, Maester Saramello said:

If R+L does indeed = J, than Jon Snow has the potential to be a real game shaker in the game of thrones. 

Somehow I don't think there is much potential for a game changer here. Westeros knows him as a bastard. Even if he was able to prove who his parents are/were, he would still need to prove that he wasn't a bastard. Good luck with that, Rhaegar was married when he kidnapped/eloped with Lyanna.

The story in itself isn't about who Jons parents are, nor is it about who Dany's parents are. The story is about what people can achieve on their own, without the weight of their parents on their shoulders.

Dany was an orphan, who was forced to marry a savage. Lucky for her the savage wasn't that awful, and when he died, she was able to wake 3 dragons from stone. She is the saviour of slaves, sacked a couple of cities and started to rule in the biggest of them, where 'the old forces' are rebelling against her.

Jon is a bastard. He went to the wall, where he finally became Lord Commander. He is the saviour of the Free folk, which has caused 'the old forces' to rebel against him.

The 2 stories are very similar, both of them are achieving near-impossible feats, without the heritage of their (real) parents, but completely on their own (and a bit if writers help and luck). Why would you want these people, who are basically self-made-success, to become dependant of their heritage again?

[bent branch]

I have become more and more convinced that Varys knows about Jon. The scene with Ned in the dungeon seems to me to be crafted in such a way to suggest Varys knows. We also know that the conspirators around Aegon know (ADWD-Chapter 24):

Quote

That time was done, though. "No man could have asked for a worthier son," Griff said, "but the lad is not of my blood, and his name is not Griff. My lords, I give you Aegon Targaryen, firstborn son of Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, by Princess Elia of Dorne ... soon, with your help, to be Aegon, the Sixth of His Name, King of Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and Lord of the Seven Kingdoms."

I've seen many people tie themselves in logical knots trying to explain away that line, but it can only be one of two things. Either it is a intentional statement by GRRM as a clue about what is going on with Jon or it is a complete mistake. Anyhow, it is makes complete sense that Varys knows about Jon. It was Varys' job to know such things. It wouldn't take that much of a leap from Ned brings home a bastard child to Ned brings home Lyanna's bastard child. Ned mostly stayed in the North where he had some control of the rumors going around. Ned relied on the North's relative isolation to keep speculation low. When recovering from a war, people are going to have enough of their own shit to shovel without worrying about Ned Stark's bastard child far to the north. By the time people started talking about the incident Ned had made sure there was very little to go on. However, Varys would be a very bad Master of Whispers if he didn't know and he isn't.

The reason most people think that Varys must not know about Jon is that they think Jon would somehow threaten Varys' plan. The problem with this thinking is that they (1) don't know Varys' plan and (2) don't know that wider knowledge of Jon would ruin that plan.

Finally, I saw some speculation about Littlefinger knowing about Jon. It is obvious that Littlefinger doesn't know (or care) about Jon. When Jon was born Littlefinger was 15 years old. He would have no reason to be interested in or have any way to have any special knowledge of Jon's birth. And all these years later, Ned Stark's bastard at the Wall would be meaningless to Littlefinger. I would first need to be convinced that Jon figures into Littlefinger's plans at all before I could be convinced that Littlefinger would invest any time or money in researching Jon Snow.

[cgrav]

Littlefinger's interest in northern politics would give him plenty of reason to look into Jon. Littlefinger has spent years weasrling his way into the marriage triangle between the North, Riverlands, and Vale. Jon is a huge wedge between Ned and Cat that LF could exploit if he wanted.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

He had a very common/believable cover story (Wylla) to hide his great cover story. (Ashara)

Ashara disappearing would be enough to convince anyone. No chance anyone in the book could put that together I'm sorry.

In the world book it says Ned defeated Arthur Dayne in single combat. If people think that and also know he was with ashara it's a much better/believable and cooler story that no one could question and if they did they'd have the warden of the north to answer to.

I actually found it odd he didn't tell Robert about Ashara or even Robert asking him about her

[bent branch]

1 hour ago, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

He had a very common/believable cover story (Wylla) to hide his great cover story. (Ashara)

Ashara disappearing would be enough to convince anyone. No chance anyone in the book could put that together I'm sorry.

In the world book it says Ned defeated Arthur Dayne in single combat. If people think that and also know he was with ashara it's a much better/believable and cooler story that no one could question and if they did they'd have the warden of the north to answer to.

I actually found it odd he didn't tell Robert about Ashara or even Robert asking him about her

The reason Ned didn't tell Robert about Ashara is because Robert would know it was a lie. Robert had a pretty good idea where both Ned and Ashara were in the necessary time frame and he knew they weren't together. That is why Ashara only works for people more distant from the situation.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

All most people know about Jon Snow is that he looks like a younger version of his father Ned Stark and he joined the NW. Maybe Varys or Baelish suspected he was Rhaegar's in the beginning but as time went on and Jon started to look more and more like Ned they suspected less. Then when Ned let him join the NW Varys/Baelish figured he had to be Ned's and even if he wasn't he's now a member of the NW and is no longer of any importance. 

Ned didn't pull one over on anyone other than Robert and Jon himself. He may have kept a royal bastard hidden but he never planned to use him in anyway that would mess with any of Varys' or Baelish's plans. 

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

The reason Ned didn't tell Robert about Ashara is because Robert would know it was a lie. Robert had a pretty good idea where both Ned and Ashara were in the necessary time frame and he knew they weren't together. That is why Ashara only works for people more distant from the situation.

At the time Jon would have been concieved Ok I'm with you. Makes sense very nice 

[Aporetic]

If Varys knows, I have to think he would have dropped some hints to Ned prior to his execution.  On the other hand....what if Varys is the one who made sure Ned learned about the tower of joy?  It also fits the larger Aegon story line and ties up 2 loose ends....Rheagar is marching off to the Trident, and figures he stands a fair chance of loosing.  He tells Varys to keep his children safe...ALL of them.

[Whitering]

I mean, if Varys observed Arya and Sansa in KL, he would have learned that the Stark kids are nice, not ultra noble stick up the ass (even Sansa), and while they had never been scared and hungry, I highly doubt fAegon has either. He was like super describing Jon during his speech to Kevan lol

The thing is Ned has plausible deniability, maybe right at the end Varys was sure, because he was able to leverage Ned into a lie to save his children, meaning he could have lied before to save children. Varys also knows how incensed Ned was over Rhaegar's dead children and how it caused a major rift between Ned and Robert until Lyanna's death. Varys probably has a pretty decent understanding of Ned's character at this point, and if he didn't know before, he might have figured it out since.

I doubt he thought much of Jon at all until reports came that he had become Lord Commander, though. Whether he put two and two together there, or considered it worth it to do so, is another question.

[Sea Dragon]

On April 2, 2017 at 2:33 AM, The Burning Wight said:

I'm not sure if this has been discussed, but I've always been curious if Varys is aware of Jon Snow's potential parentage. Assuming R + L = J is true, could Varys be aware of the events surrounding the Tower of Joy?

We know that Varys was the Master of Whispers during Aery's reign. We know that Rhaegar's kidnapping of Lyanna would certainly count as something of note, something that Varys would follow closely. So when Rhaegar marches off to the trident without three of the kings guard, including it's captain (Hightower), and arguably it's greatest sword (Dayne), wouldn't Varys want to do some investigating, especially when those three kings guards turn up dead such a long way from the Trident? Admittedly, the details around ToJ are sketchy at best, considering there were only two survivors, but I'm inclined to think there are enough details for someone as observant as Varys to piece the puzzle together. 

If Varys does know, does Jon play into his plans regarding Dany and fAegon?

I don't think he did because if he did then I think he would have tried to either mentor him or kill him. I think kill him because he has closer ties to Aegon and Danaerys. 

[Maester Saramello]

I'm thinking that if Varys knew he would ahve kept Jon Snow close, maybe King's Landing close, instead of allowing him to be shipped to the Northern end of the known world where the chance of death is higher than the chance of sweat. Also, Varys could pull a Roose Bolton and get a pawn king to legitimize John Snow, thus giving him a claim to winterfell. 

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I honestly don't think he knows. Varys is not infallible as people believe he is. GRRM said Varys didn't know about Viserys' betrothal to Arianne, and I'm sure he didn't know about Quentyn being in Essos either (until he revealed himself, at least), so I'd say he's not as all-mighty as many assume.

That doesn't mean he couldn't suspect, though, but I doubt it. Considering is likely he ruined Rhaegar's plans by telling Aerys to go to Harrenhall, and that's what, IMHO, caused Rhaegar to seclude himself in the very isolated ToJ, he could never figure out what Rhaegar was doing (I'm sure he did more than making Jon there) but wanted to know what it was and who was talking to and who were helping him. That probably deviated his attention from assuming Ned's bastard was actually Rhaegar's son.

Also, he probably got distracted by the war and the possibility of dying, not to say that he could have been, already, plotting to put "Aegon" on the IT.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Varys has his (f)Aegon who has the Valyrian look. IF Varys knew about Jon Snow he was happy when he joined the Night's Watch. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎4‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 2:33 AM, The Burning Wight said:

I'm not sure if this has been discussed, but I've always been curious if Varys is aware of Jon Snow's potential parentage. Assuming R + L = J is true, could Varys be aware of the events surrounding the Tower of Joy?

We know that Varys was the Master of Whispers during Aery's reign. We know that Rhaegar's kidnapping of Lyanna would certainly count as something of note, something that Varys would follow closely. So when Rhaegar marches off to the trident without three of the kings guard, including it's captain (Hightower), and arguably it's greatest sword (Dayne), wouldn't Varys want to do some investigating, especially when those three kings guards turn up dead such a long way from the Trident? Admittedly, the details around ToJ are sketchy at best, considering there were only two survivors, but I'm inclined to think there are enough details for someone as observant as Varys to piece the puzzle together. 

If Varys does know, does Jon play into his plans regarding Dany and fAegon?

It depends on the meaning of know is .He is aware (know) of what Ned said , but I doubt he knows(knowledge) of Jon parentage ,because he refer to Jon as being baseborn a term normally used if one of the parents is from the smallfolk  , both Lyanna and Ashara are high born . Rhaegar and Arthur and Ned and Brandon left him out of the loop .  

[aryagonnakill#2]

No.  And for a bonus point I'll point out that obviously LF and Jon Con don't know either.

[Vaedys Targaryen]

I personally think Varys knows. He may not know all the details about what happened at the Tower of Joy, but he is an incredibly intelligent character and the fact that he could not piece two-and-two together (Ned going south to Dorne to get Lyanna, but comes home with Lyanna's corpse and a little boy whom he claims is his bastard), strikes me as rather odd.

But one of the biggest reasons why I think it is Varys is because Ned and his friends seemingly knew where the Tower of Joy was. All of them were Northmen and had most likely never been to Dorne, but they found the tower seemingly effortlessly and without a guide? That to me seems unlikely and I think someone told them where the tower was and I think that that someone was Varys.

 

But one thing that has always bothered me is that seemingly no one (other than Ned and Howland) knows how Lyanna died and no one seemed to have bothered asking how. If Lyanna did indeed die from childbirth, she wouldn't have had any visible scars that could be the cause of death and which could've caused anybody who was close to her ask how she died.

[The Fattest Leech]

Well, who really knows what for sure at this point?

What we do know is it seems the major players/houses of the realm know that Rhaegar "stole" Lyanna and had sex with/raped her. People know how and where Rhaegar died, and the same for Lyanna. And they also know that Ned went to Dorne and came home with a "bastard". I am sure there are a few smartypants's in Westeros that could piece it together, and/or believe certain info if revealed on a larger scale.