US Politics: He's Trump, he's Trump, he's Trump, he's in my head

[Kalbear]

Just now, Toth said:

But why would Putin give himself a headache?

Okay, fine, destroying any US/Assad cooperation could work under the assumption that Trump now just let this fizzle out and pretend it didn't happen. It's still an awfully uncertain gamble, considering that Trump has enough would-be crusaders in his council of card-carrying evil to go apeshit on Assad.

I don't think this is what happened. 

I think Assad got pissed and got bold and wanted to kill the shit out of the rebels in that area and terrorize them, and wanted to see how far he could push things. I think Russia was angry about it as they had already promised that they had gotten rid of the chemical weapons. Russia had already stated prior to the US attack that their support of Syria was not unconditional, and it's quite possible that this could have caused Russia to back off of Syria a bit in their support.

That said, what i suspect happened now is that Russia has a way to save face in several ways and is virtually forced to back Syria publicly. Assad gets a stronger ally that will let him prosecute the civil war largely how he wants to, Russia gets further away from the US, Iran is probably a bit peeved, and escalations have increased. We won't likely see chemical weapons for a while - but we'll almost certainly see some escalation of war efforts there, and there's a good chance we'll have some US/Russian dogfights. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Apparently all his 'alt-right' supporters like Spencer, and even Milo and Coulter are disillusioned by this Syria theater. Did they not know he has no consistent policy on anything and expecting things from him is in general garbage?

Speaking of Spencer, I was in Glacier National park last August, and I was floored to later learn his home town was nearby. I stayed there for a week and couldnt discern any neo-Nazi activity, but apparently it is a hotbed of such. People probably are good at hiding their real selves.

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I don't think this is what happened. 

I think Assad got pissed and got bold and wanted to kill the shit out of the rebels in that area and terrorize them, and wanted to see how far he could push things. I think Russia was angry about it as they had already promised that they had gotten rid of the chemical weapons. Russia had already stated prior to the US attack that their support of Syria was not unconditional, and it's quite possible that this could have caused Russia to back off of Syria a bit in their support.

That said, what i suspect happened now is that Russia has a way to save face in several ways and is virtually forced to back Syria publicly. Assad gets a stronger ally that will let him prosecute the civil war largely how he wants to, Russia gets further away from the US, Iran is probably a bit peeved, and escalations have increased. We won't likely see chemical weapons for a while - but we'll almost certainly see some escalation of war efforts there, and there's a good chance we'll have some US/Russian dogfights. 

More like Russia getting tired of a belligerent Assad who thinks he doesn't have to heed their orders anymore, Putin wanting to break the narrative of him and Trump being best mates, and Trump needing a distraction from the same.

So this strike seems to put Trump and Putin at loggerheads, plus it scares the living shit out of Assad. Trump wins because he shows that he acted when Assad crossed the red line - unlike Obama who backed down from it. Also, he shows that he is not afraid to antagonize the Russians. He also shows that he is a man of action and not to be messed with.

Russia gets Assad back under control (who has lately been pushing for retaking all of Syria, which has never been Russia's goal), and with tensions seemingly escalating between Russia and the US, the whole world holds its breath at the apparent brink of WW3. Only for Trump and Putin to make a deal for a permanent peace settlement in Syria soon hereafter.

Russia is able to do so because suddenly Assad realizes he is vulnerable and has no choice but to follow their lead. Trump looks like a deal maker extraordinaire, and Trump and Putin together show the world that the US and Russia working together can solve the biggest geopolitical crisis of the last decade where everyone else failed.

Trump is happy, Putin is happy, and the world is forced to eat humble pie and accept that these two powers working in unison can pretty much rule the world. And chapter two sees Putin and Trump focusing their attention on wiping out ISIS, which again, is a goal that no sane person can oppose.

Or...all of the above is just a wishful theory, and the reality is everything is about to go to shit. I certainly hope for the former, rather than the latter option.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Apparently all his 'alt-right' supporters like Spencer, and even Milo and Coulter are disillusioned by this piece of Syria theater. Did they not know he has no consistent policy on anything and expecting things from him is in general garbage?

Speaking of Spencer, I was in Glacier National park last August, and I was floored to later learn his home town was nearby. I stayed there for a week and couldnt discern any neo-Nazi activity, but apparently it is a hotbed of such. People probably are good at hiding their real selves.

Montana is a well known hot bed of all sorts of right wing groups. 

To your first point, I wonder what would happen if Bannon got forced out and went back to Breitbart. I'd assume Trump would moderate himself to some degree and I could Breitbart going after him like they went after Hillary. Would be interesting to see. 

[Kalbear]

Probably the most 'correct' interpretation is that Assad got cocky, Trump got really sad watching the news of dead kids, and ordered something done which had already been put together in the Obama administration. 

[Mexal]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Probably the most 'correct' interpretation is that Assad got cocky, Trump got really sad watching the news of dead kids, and ordered something done which had already been put together in the Obama administration. 

I have a hard time believing Trump has any empathy at all. When faced with pictures of kids during the campaign, he said he'd look them in the eye and tell them they cannot come here. Sorry, I don't buy the sad picture story.

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Probably the most 'correct' interpretation is that Assad got cocky, Trump got really sad watching the news of dead kids, and ordered something done which had already been put together in the Obama administration. 

Honestly, as I have said several times, Trump did not want to wear this. There have been lots of pictures of limbless people, weeping parents over dead children, blood spattered streets, little boys with their faces covered in blood sitting stunned looked (and he has a little boy), dead bodies, including children. If you aren't moved by seeing pictures of dead toddlers lying on a beach, why would you be moved by dead children lying in a cart?

He didn't want to wear it, not on his watch. It hit home. Finally.

[Kalbear]

Just now, Mexal said:

I have a hard time believing Trump has any empathy at all. When faced with pictures of kids during the campaign, he said he'd look them in the eye and tell them they cannot come here. Sorry, I don't buy the sad picture story.

I would normally agree with you, but I think that he does have some. Especially with kids having things like seizures, given the reported issues with Barron. 

I mean, it's an incredibly stupid kind of empathy. Trump could do far more for much less money if he simply allowed refugees into the US, so it's clear he doesn't really care that much, but this likely triggered him to action. Terrorists should likely take note; probably the easiest thing to provoke Trump to do incredibly rash things would be, like, to bomb an orphanage of white kids with gas of some kind.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Listen, if he really got sad looking at pictures of gassed babies, then maybe someone should show him videos of refugee camps so he can start allowing increasing numbers of Syrian refugees back in the country (also something Obama had set in place).

[Toth]

3 minutes ago, Mexal said:

I have a hard time believing Trump has any empathy at all. When faced with pictures of kids during the campaign, he said he'd look them in the eye and tell them they cannot come here. Sorry, I don't buy the sad picture story.

Me neither. I get the 'Assad got cocky' story, it is a distinct (if not very exciting) possibility. Then Trump wants to make himself look strong and manly by getting into a war. Kinda reminded me of that Plato quote I read recently, about tyrants always starting one conflict or another so that their people may need a leader. It's the same reason why he pushes for a higher military budget. It makes his ego feel awesome.

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Listen, if he really got sad looking at pictures of gassed babies, then maybe someone should show him videos of refugee camps so he can start allowing increasing numbers of Syrian refugees back in the country (also something Obama had set in place).

I'd love that to be the case, but he doesn't want long term hard things - he wants to push a button and fix it.

Plus this is an odd confluence of things almost everyone wants: liberals like stopping babies dying, conservatives like stopping people using chemical weapons, neocons like stopping Assad, neoliberals like projection of US force without boots on the ground. About the only ones who genuinely hate it are the alt-rightists. 

That's not the case for refugees. 

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, Mexal said:

I have a hard time believing Trump has any empathy at all. When faced with pictures of kids during the campaign, he said he'd look them in the eye and tell them they cannot come here. Sorry, I don't buy the sad picture story.

I don't actually. I think he's very good at separating policies from their outcomes and ignoring consequences; which makes him perfectly willing to do very harmful things. But when confronted with direct evidence of things, especially if its something he can connect to personally; there are examples of him showing empathy.

There are interviews out there from long before he got involved in politics, talking about things like: alcoholism and his brother's death, the threat of nuclear war, the loneliness of success (it was about Citizen Kane), etc. that seem like pretty clear examples of empathy. Even if he's always inarticulate about it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if news footage of dead kids had a much greater impact on him than any number of briefings, reports, talking coverage, etc. about the effects of anything he's proposed so far.

But it doesn't indicate any longterm change in him as President; this isn't the long-awaited "pivot." Its just one specific instance where he felt sad and wanted something done; and it just so happened that the military was ready and willing to give him something to do. The danger is that now he's getting praised so many of the establishment that have been criticizing him non-stop (except for right after his speech to Congress, when he got similiar praise) and he decides that continuing to pursue military actions is the way to keep getting praise.

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

But it doesn't indicate any longterm change in him as President; this isn't the long-awaited "pivot." Its just one specific instance where he felt sad and wanted something done; and it just so happened that the military was ready and willing to give him something to do. The danger is that now he's getting praised so many of the establishment that have been criticizing him non-stop (except for right after his speech to Congress, when he got similiar praise) and he decides that continuing to pursue military actions is the way to keep getting praise.

Yeah, so much this. He's listened to Bannon for the first few months and got shit on for it, had Flynn ousted, had all this scandal with Russia. He fucks up the ACA deal too. So instead he switches to the Kushner model and calms down the rhetoric, bombs Syria, get Gorsuch, and suddenly he's looking decent. He wants and likes praise, from everyone. 

The reason that Bannon is possibly on the outs and there may be a massive shakeup is because Trump recognizes when things aren't working and is happy to cut bait. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

I'm sorry. Trump has many flaws. But your sheer Trump hatred makes fools of many of you. These ideas that the man has zero empathy, or acts without any cunning, and with no long term planning or subterfuge, and that he is essentially just behaving like an impulse driven little child are ridiculously simplistic.

Of course Trump can have empathy. And of course he can and does consider the consequences of his actions beyond the immediate need to "pound some terrorists into the ground because of a picture". Sure the picture might have moved him into action, but why can't that action also be coupled with some more complex planning and maneuvering to gain the most advantage from it?

By dismissing Trump as being little more than an Alec Baldwin caricature you insult your own intelligence. The situation is more nuanced and complex than that.

[Swordfish]

13 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

What do we get out of this hyper-interventionist policy? Outside of jobs in the Defense Industry?

is the answer 'morally superior erections'?

[Kalbear]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm sorry. Trump has many flaws. But your sheer Trump hatred makes fools of many of you. These ideas that the man has zero empathy, or acts without any cunning, and with no long term planning or subterfuge, and that he is essentially just behaving like an impulse driven little child are simply ridiculously simplistic.

While I don't think he has zero empathy, by his own admission he acts on instinct and doesn't think things through all that much, has very little long term planning and isn't particularly good at subterfuge. Again, this is Trump saying so. If you don't believe him, let us know why.

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

Of course Trump can have empathy. And of course he can and does consider the consequences of his actions beyond the immediate need to "pound some terrorists into the ground because of a picture". Sure the picture might have moved him into action, but why can't that action also be coupled with some more complex planning and maneuvering to gain the most advantage from it?

Because we have seen zero indication that this is what he does.

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

By dismissing Trump as being little more than an Alec Baldwin caricature you insult your own intelligence. The situation is more nuanced and complex than that.

The situation is. Trump, however, is not. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm sorry. Trump has many flaws. But your sheer Trump hatred makes fools of many of you. These ideas that the man has zero empathy, or acts without any cunning, and with no long term planning or subterfuge, and that he is essentially just behaving like an impulse driven little child are ridiculously simplistic.

Of course Trump can have empathy. And of course he can and does consider the consequences of his actions beyond the immediate need to "pound some terrorists into the ground because of a picture". Sure the picture might have moved him into action, but why can't that action also be coupled with some more complex planning and maneuvering to gain the most advantage from it?

By dismissing Trump as being little more than an Alec Baldwin caricature you insult your own intelligence. The situation is more nuanced and complex than that.

Eh, he's clearly operating at an empathetic deficiency. Maybe you're right, but I don't think so. I think the overriding motivation for Trump here was essentially "not on my watch". 

[Mexal]

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm sorry. Trump has many flaws. But your sheer Trump hatred makes fools of many of you. These ideas that the man has zero empathy, or acts without any cunning, and with no long term planning or subterfuge, and that he is essentially just behaving like an impulse driven little child are ridiculously simplistic.

Of course Trump can have empathy. And of course he can and does consider the consequences of his actions beyond the immediate need to "pound some terrorists into the ground because of a picture". Sure the picture might have moved him into action, but why can't that action also be coupled with some more complex planning and maneuvering to gain the most advantage from it?

By dismissing Trump as being little more than an Alec Baldwin caricature you insult your own intelligence. The situation is more nuanced and complex than that.

Really? Fez gave some examples of a type of empathy but I have not found it in any of his actions, rhetoric or policies, not to mention all of the shady shit he has done over his lifetime that has screwed many many people out of their livelihood. So until he shows me true empathy, I have a hard time believing he has any.

As for him acting without cunning, it's pretty clear this is true and that everything he has done that has been any type of success is tied entirely to Congress destroying Obama era regulations. Outside of that, he hasn't pushed a single thing from the administration and it has been one failure after another, whether it's the failed ACHA, the failed travel ban, the NSA working for foreign countries and being fired 28 days into his reign, Bannon being removed from Security Council, failed diplomacy calls with foreign leaders, the criminalization of the previous administration with no proof, the AG recusing himself, the House Intel Chairman recusing himself and so on. These are not examples of a guy who is showing cunning, long term planning or any fucking plan at all. Have you seen a single policy idea come out of this administration? Have you seen a single plan to accomplish anything? 

If you can show me examples of any a plan or cunning and improve my intelligence, I'd love to see it. All I see is a president with a 35% approval rating (worst in modern history at this point and lower then his predecessor ever had in the middle of the worst recession since the Great Depression), who's only success was to muck up streams, allow ISPs to sell browser history without your permission and symbolically bring back a dying industry that will never come back. You can claim Gorshuch is a success but the reality is he had absolutely nothing to do with it outside of nominating him and he could have nominated any conservative and gotten it passed the minute the Senate nuked the filibuster rules.

[Mexal]

And just to add more, it looks like Trump is looking to reshuffle his WH staff again, this time "reassigning" Bannon and Preibus. This is a guy who ran on the idea that he's a successful businessman who would hire the absolute best people. He's now looking to have to replace his National Security Advisor, his Chief of Staff, his Deputy Chief of Staff and his Chief Strategist. I'm sure Spicer is coming soon as well. Long term planning indeed.

All that being said, it's better for the country if all this happens but lets get beyond the whole "Donald Trump is a secret mastermind with a cunning plan" bullshit.

[Kalbear]

SUCH an effective attack